Netanyahu accuses France, Britain and Canada of 'emboldening' Hamas

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused the leaders of France, Britain and Canada of wanting to help the Palestinian militant group Hamas after they threatened to take "concrete action" if Israel did not stop its latest offensive in Gaza.

The criticism, echoing similar remarks from Foreign Minister Gideon Saar on Thursday, was part of a fightback by the Israeli government against the increasingly heavy international pressure on it over the war in Gaza.

"You're on the wrong side of humanity and you're on the wrong side of history," Netanyahu said.

The Israeli leader, facing an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court over alleged war crimes in Gaza, has regularly criticized European countries as well as global institutions from the United Nations to the International Court of Justice over what he says is their bias against Israel.

But as the flow of images of destruction and hunger in Gaza has continued, fuelling protests in countries around the world, Israel has struggled to turn international opinion, which has increasingly shifted against it

"It's hard to convince at least some people, definitely on the far left in the US and in some countries in Europe, that what Israel is doing is a war of defence," said former Israeli diplomat Yaki Dayan.

"But this is how it is perceived in Israel and bridging this gap is sometimes an impossible mission," he said.

Israeli officials have been particularly concerned about growing calls for other countries in Europe to follow the example of Spain and Ireland in recognizing a Palestinian state as part of a two-state solution to resolve decades of conflict in the region.

Netanyahu argues that a Palestinian state would threaten Israel and he has framed the killing of two Israeli embassy staffers in Washington on Tuesday by a man who allegedly shouted "Free Palestine" as a clear example of that threat.

He said "exactly the same chant" was heard during the attack on Israel by Hamas on October 07, 2023.

"They don't want a Palestinian state. They want to destroy the Jewish state," he said in a statement on the social media platform X.

"I could never understand how this simple truth evades the leaders of France, Britain, Canada and others," he said, adding that any moves by Western countries to recognize a Palestinian state would "reward these murderers with the ultimate prize".

Instead of advancing peace, the three leaders were "emboldening Hamas to continue fighting forever", he said.

 

Israel calls up reservists as Gaza offensive escalates

The Israeli army is issuing call-up orders to tens of thousands of reservists as it prepares to expand its military operations in the Gaza Strip, further intensifying an already devastating conflict, reports Saudi Gazette.

The military said the reservists would begin reporting for duty in the coming week, without specifying the scale or focus of the planned escalation.

The decision comes as the humanitarian situation in Gaza continues to deteriorate. Israel has barred the entry of aid, medicine, food, and commercial goods into the enclave since March 02, worsening conditions for the civilian population.

According to Palestinian health authorities, nearly 52,500 people — the majority women and children — have been killed in Israeli attacks on Gaza since the war began in October 2023.

Israel is currently facing multiple international legal proceedings over its actions in Gaza. The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants in November last year for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity. The country is also on trial at the International Court of Justice in a genocide case brought by South Africa.

Around 25% tunnels in Gaza destroyed

According to The Jerusalem Post, IDF has only destroyed about a quarter of Hamas’s tunnels in Gaza. Security sources also added that a significant number of smuggling tunnels crossing from Egypt to the Gaza strip are still intact. The Egypt-Gaza border remains a point of contention, with concerns over weapons smuggling resulting in Israel’s refusal to withdraw from the Philadelphia Corridor. 

“I saw with my own eyes quite a few tunnels crossing into Egypt; some were closed, and several were open,” Defense Minister Israel Katz said at a February conference, according to N12.

“We had information that Hamas was planning to attack soldiers and settlements during the ceasefire.”

Despite efforts to control the corridor as a buffer zone, numerous experts argue that holding the border may not effectively stop the flow of weapons.

The report follows the recent resumption of combat operations in the Gaza Strip and a military order issued in late March directing residents of Rafah in southern Gaza to evacuate.

The IDF had previously withdrawn troops from Rafah after a ceasefire was agreed upon in January, though that ceasefire has since expired.

Less than two weeks ago, the IDF reported that Yahalom Unit troops dismantled a one-kilometer-long Hamas tunnel route. Currently, the 143rd, 252nd, and 36th IDF divisions are operating in the area.

The IDF also told N12 that it has detected a significant number of Hamas terrorists fleeing combat zones. These terrorists are reportedly hiding among civilian populations and within tunnels, likely trying to avoid direct contact with soldiers.

The military noted that its operations in Gaza have become more decentralized, with limited face-to-face combat, although it assumes this will be temporary. The IDF believes Hamas will eventually be forced to engage in direct confrontation again.

“IDF troops, under the leadership of the Southern Command, are deepening the operation, and this will continue at a deliberate and determined pace,” said Chief of the General Staff, Lt.-Gen Eyal Zamir.

“The only thing that can halt our advance is the release of our hostages. Their return would allow our forces to reposition and enable the continuation of negotiation.” 

 

 

 

 

Who is responsible for the killing of Gazans?

The question of who is responsible for the killing of Gazans is complex and deeply tied to the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Responsibility depends on the context, perspective, and the specific events being referred to. In this post an attempt is being made to understand the present situation and propose a plausible solution:

Humanitarian perspective:

The Israeli military is often held responsible for a significant number of civilian casualties in Gaza, especially during major military operations. Israel says it targets Hamas and other militant groups, but these operations have resulted in many civilian deaths due to the densely populated nature of Gaza

Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza are also accused for operating from within civilian areas, use human shields, or launch rockets indiscriminately into Israeli territory, provoking retaliatory strikes and contributing to the cycle of violence.

International perspective:

International organizations, like the United Nations and human rights groups ‑ Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch ‑ accuse both Israel and Palestinian armed groups for the lingering conflict resulting in huge loss of human lives, particularly women and children.

Israel often accused of disproportionate use of force and blockade policies that severely impact civilians.

Palestinian groups are condemned for indiscriminate rocket attacks and operating in ways that endanger Israeli civilians.

Structural and political responsibility:

Long-term occupation, blockade, and lack of a viable peace process can be termed as structural causes of repeated violence.

Israel controls most of Gaza’s borders, airspace, and resources, while Hamas governs internally but with limited capacity.

International actors, including the United States, Egypt, Iran, and others, also play roles through military aid, political backing, or indirect support.

Crux of the Matter:

Direct military actions causing deaths are typically attributed to the Israeli military or Palestinian armed groups, depending on perspective of on lookers. Broader responsibility lies with political leaders, ongoing occupation, militant governance, and an international community that has often failed to resolve the underlying issues.

Way Forward:

Israel, now fully supported by US President Donald Trump wants complete cleansing/ exit of Gazans. During the ongoing conflict nearly 100,000 Gazans, mostly women and children have been killed. However, Gazans resolve has sustained are they are not ready to desert their homeland.

The other and more civilized option is creation of two states, Israel and Palestine. Saudi Arabia and many other Muslim countries support this.

United States also initiated Abraham Accords paving way for the recognition of Israel. However, many supporters of this initiative want Israel to go back to its original borders and let the Palestinians manage their own state.

Gaza 'Riviera of the Middle East'

Now the real stumbling block is US President Trump's plan to make Gaza 'Riviera of the Middle East' which requires all the 2.2 million residents to vacate the strip. This vision involved the United States taking control of Gaza, relocating its approximately two million Palestinian residents to neighboring countries, and redeveloping the area into a luxury resort destination. Trump suggested that Gaza's coastal location could make it "better than Monaco" if redeveloped appropriately.

This proposal received strong support from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli officials, who viewed it as a means to disarm Hamas and alter the region's dynamics. However, it faced significant criticism internationally. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres labeled the plan as "ethnic cleansing," emphasizing that forcibly transferring populations violates international law. Arab nations, including Jordan, also rejected the proposal, with Jordan's King Abdullah II expressing firm opposition to the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza.

The plan also sparked debate within the United States, with bipartisan concerns about its feasibility and ethical implications. Critics argued that it misread the interests of Arab partners and could destabilize the region further. Facing mounting opposition, President Trump later stated that he would "recommend" but not enforce the plan, indicating a step back from the initial proposal.

 

 

 

 

Israeli Plan for Full Reoccupation of Gaza

Israel has formulated a new plan to fully reoccupy the Gaza Strip, according to a report published Monday by the Financial Times, citing senior Israeli officials. If implemented, this would mark the first time Israel reasserts full control over Gaza since its 2005 unilateral withdrawal.

The proposed strategy, developed by IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, reportedly calls for the mobilization of multiple IDF combat divisions to enter the Strip with the aim of decisively dismantling Hamas and restoring security control. The report indicates that the plan has backing from members of Israel’s security leadership and political right, but has not yet been approved by the security cabinet.

Two Israeli officials noted that the return of Donald Trump to White House was a key factor in reviving such a bold plan. The current US administration has given stronger public support for Israel’s military objectives, signaling a window of opportunity for Israel to reshape Gaza’s future governance.

In addition to regaining military control, Israel would reportedly assume full authority over humanitarian aid distribution within the Strip. This would include managing aid flows and monitoring nutritional requirements part of a broader plan to ensure that civilians receive assistance while Hamas is denied access to resources.

Hamas, a US-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization, continues to operate within civilian infrastructure and impede aid access. Israel’s plan to oversee aid directly is intended to sever the terror group’s ability to manipulate humanitarian efforts.

 

US rejects alternate Gaza reconstruction plan

According to Saudi Gazette, the Trump administration has rejected a long-awaited plan for the reconstruction of Gaza endorsed by Arab leaders, saying the president stands by his own vision which includes expelling the territory’s Palestinian residents and transforming it into a “riviera” owned by the United States.

“The current proposal does not address the reality that Gaza is currently uninhabitable and residents cannot humanely live in a territory covered in debris and unexploded ordnance,” National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes said in a statement Tuesday night.

“President Trump stands by his vision to rebuild Gaza free from Hamas. We look forward to further talks to bring peace and prosperity to the region.”

The postwar plan for the Gaza Strip, which was proposed by Egypt and calls for Hamas to cede power to an interim administration until a reformed Palestinian Authority (PA) can assume control, would allow its roughly 2 million Palestinians to remain, in contrast to Trump’s proposal.

Speaking in Cairo, PA President Mahmoud Abbas pledged that general elections will be held in the West Bank, Gaza and occupied East Jerusalem for the first time in nearly two decades “if circumstances are suitable.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu still refuses to say what he envisions for Gaza’s post-war future, except to say that he endorses Trump’s plan for “a different Gaza.” And he thinks neither the PA nor Hamas should govern Gaza.

The US$53 billion proposal by Arab nations calls for rebuilding Gaza by 2030. The first phase calls for starting the removal of unexploded ordnance and clearing more than 50 million tons of rubble left by Israel’s bombardment and military offensives.

CNN obtained a copy of the document, which lays out an ambitious plan to develop shopping malls, an international convention center and even an airport within five years. It also aims to attract tourists by building resorts and enhancing the enclave’s Mediterranean coast.

It also acknowledges the difficulties that could be faced in disarming militants in the Gaza Strip.

“It is something that can be dealt with, and even ended forever, only if its causes are removed through a clear horizon and a credible political process,” it says.

Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters on Tuesday that the group’s arms were non-negotiable.

“The weapon of the resistance is a red line, and it is not negotiable,” he said. “We will not accept (any deal) to trade it for reconstruction or the entry of aid.”

Hamas has sent mixed signals about its future in Gaza in recent weeks. Analysts have said that while the group has shown that it is willing to discuss demilitarization as an end goal of a peace process, it is keen not to allow it to become a prerequisite of the process.

Osama Hamdan, a senior Hamas official, said last month that the group will not disarm and may even grow after the war in Gaza.

Last week, Hamas official Husam Badran said that the group was willing to step aside from governing Gaza.

“Our only condition is for this to be an internal Palestinian matter – we will not allow any regional or international party to get involved,” he told Al Arabiya. “As long as there is national consensus, Hamas will not be involved in the governance.”

Israel has blocked the entry of food, fuel, medicine and other supplies to Gaza to pressure Hamas to accept the agreement and has warned of additional consequences, raising fears of a return to fighting.

The suspension of aid drew widespread criticism, with human rights groups saying that it violated Israel’s obligations as an occupying power under international law.

Speaking at the summit announcing the plan for Gaza’s future, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi said there would be no “true peace” without the establishment of the Palestinian state.

Israel has vowed to maintain open-ended security control over both Gaza and the West Bank, which it captured in the 1967 Mideast war and which Palestinians want for their future state. Israel’s government and most of its political class are opposed to Palestinian statehood.

 

Gazans face tough choice, stay or go away

The level of destruction in Jabalia when viewed from the air is truly astonishing. A Hiroshima-like wasteland stretches as far as the eye can see. The mangled carcasses of buildings dot the churned-up landscape, some leaning at crazy angles.

Great undulating waves of rubble make it all but impossible to make out the geography of this once bustling, tightly packed refugee camp. And yet, as a drone camera flies over the wreckage, it picks out splashes of blue and white where small tent camps have been set up in patches of open ground.

And figures, clambering over broken buildings, moving along streets of dirt, where food markets are springing up under tin roofs and canvas awnings. Children using a collapsed roof as a slide. After more than six weeks of Gaza's fragile ceasefire, Jabalia is slowly coming back to life.

In the neighborhood of al-Qasasib, Nabil has returned to a four-story house that's somehow still standing, even if it lacks windows, doors and -- in some places -- walls. He and his relatives have made crude balconies out of wooden pallets and strung-up tarpaulin to keep out the elements.

"Look at the destruction," he says as he surveys Jabalia's ocean of ruins from a gaping upper floor.

"They want us to leave without rebuilding it? How can we leave? The least we can do is rebuild it for our children."

To cook a meal, Nabil lights a fire on the bare staircase, stoking it carefully with pieces of torn-up cardboard.

On another floor, Laila Ahmed Okasha washes up in a sink where the tap ran dry months ago. "There's no water, electricity or sewage," she says. "If we need water, we have to go to a far place to fill up buckets."

She says she cried when she came back to the house and found it wrecked. She blames Israel and Hamas for destroying the world she once knew. "Both of them are responsible," she says. "We had a decent, comfortable life."

Soon after the war began in October 2023, Israel told Palestinians in the northern part of the Gaza Strip – including Jabalia – to move south for their own safety. Hundreds of thousands of people heeded the warning, but many stayed, determined to ride out the war.

Laila and her husband Marwan clung on until October last year, when the Israeli military reinvaded Jabalia, saying Hamas had reconstituted fighting units inside the camp's narrow streets.

After two months of sheltering in nearby Shati camp, Leila and Marwan returned to find Jabalia almost unrecognizable.

"When we came back and saw how it was destroyed, I didn't want to stay here anymore," Marwan says. "I had a wonderful life, but now it's a hell. If I have the chance to leave, I'll go. I won't stay one more minute."

Stay or go? The future of Gaza's civilian population is now the subject of international debate.

In February, Donald Trump suggested that the US should take over Gaza and that nearly two million Palestinian residents should leave, possibly for good.

Faced with international outrage and fierce opposition from Arab leaders, Trump has subsequently appeared to back away from the plan, saying he recommended it but would not force it on anyone.

In the meantime, Egypt has led Arab efforts to come up with a viable alternative, to be presented at an emergency Arab summit in Cairo on Tuesday.

Crucially, it says the Palestinian population should remain inside Gaza while the area is reconstructed.

Donald Trump's intervention has brought out Gaza's famously stubborn side. "If Trump wants to make us leave, I'll stay in Gaza," Laila says. "I want to travel on my own free will. I won't leave because of him."

Across the way sits a nine-story yellow block of flats so spectacularly damaged it's hard to believe it hasn't collapsed.

The upper floors have caved in entirely, threatening the rest. In time, it will surely have to be demolished, but for now it's home to yet more families. There are sheets in the windows and washing hanging to dry in the late winter sunshine.

Most incongruously of all, outside a makeshift plastic doorway on a corner of the ground floor, next to piles of rubble and rubbish, stands a headless mannequin, wearing a wedding gown. It's Sanaa Abu Ishbak's dress shop.

The 45-year-old seamstress, mother of 11, set up the business two years before the war but had to abandon it when she fled south in November 2023.

She came back as soon as the ceasefire was announced. With her husband and daughters, she's been busy clearing debris from the shop, arranging dresses on hangers and getting ready for business. "I love Jabalia camp," she says, "and I won't leave it till I die."

Sanaa and Laila seem equally determined to stay put if they can. But both women speak differently when they talk of the young.

"She doesn't even know how to write her own name," Laila says of her granddaughter. "There's no education in Gaza."

The little girl's mother was killed during the war. Laila says she still talks to her at night.

"She was the soul of my soul and she left her daughter in my hands. If I have the chance to travel, I will do so for the sake of my granddaughter."

Courtesy: Saudi Gazette

Taming the Shrewd called Trump

It is as clear as day that the US president has incalculable powers. Despite being an elected president, he is a complete autocrat. He can take many decisions at his own without the approval of the Senate and can veto any decision of the Senate. This right is available to the president under the US Constitution.

In his first term, Donald Trump not only unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear agreement reached with Iran by the remaining superpowers, but also imposed more sanctions at his own. After Iran's protests and the superpowers' surrender, Joe Biden has also been imposing new sanctions on Iran.

After being re-elected as president in the recent elections, he has begun to hint at rare royal decrees to be issued after he takes oath on January 20, 2025.

The first decree is that the BRICS countries will not create their own currency and if they dare to make such a mistake, they will be subject to additional tariffs and will not be able to export their products to the United States.

Israel has broken the backs of Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria at the behest of the US, and today there are heavy attacks on Yemen. There is a growing fear that Iran will be the next target.

At the same time, Trump has announced to impose new tariffs on Mexican and Canadian products exported to the US.

The limit is that Trump has also announced new tariffs on his allies to undermine the European Union.

I have no qualms in saying that the continued silence of Russia and China and the criminal indifference of the oil-producing Arab countries have given the US the courage to do all this.

Remember, those countries that are silent spectators of the destruction of other countries today will have no one to shed tears over their destruction tomorrow.

Netanyahu eyes Iran, his arch foe

According to Reuters, 2025 will be a year of reckoning for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He is set to cement his strategic goals: tightening his military control over Gaza, thwarting Iran's nuclear ambitions and capitalizing on the dismantling of Tehran's allies - Palestinian Hamas, Lebanon's Hezbollah and the removal of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.

Assad's collapse, the elimination of the top leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah and the destruction of their military structure mark a succession of monumental wins for Netanyahu.

Without Syria, the alliances Tehran has nurtured for decades have unraveled. As Iran's influence weakens, Israel is emerging as the dominant power in the region.

Netanyahu is poised to zero in on Iran's nuclear ambitions and missile program, applying an unyielding focus to dismantling and neutralizing these strategic threats to Israel.

Iran, Middle East observers say, faces a stark choice: Either continue its nuclear enrichment program or scale back its atomic activities and agree to negotiations.

"Iran is very vulnerable to an Israeli attack, particularly against its nuclear program," said Joost R. Hiltermann, Middle East and North Africa Program Director of the International Crisis Group. "I wouldn't be surprised if Israel did it, but that doesn't get rid of Iran."

"If they (Iranians) do not back down, Trump and Netanyahu might strike, as nothing now prevents them," said Palestinian analyst Ghassan al-Khatib, referring to President-elect Donald Trump. Khatib argued that the Iranian leadership, having demonstrated pragmatism in the past, may be willing to compromise to avert a military confrontation.

Trump, who withdrew from a 2015 agreement between Iran and six world powers aimed at curbing Tehran's nuclear goals, is likely to step up sanctions on Iran's oil industry, despite calls to return to negotiations from critics who see diplomacy as a more effective long-term policy.

Amid the turmoil of Iran and Gaza, Netanyahu's long-running corruption trial, which resumed in December, will also play a defining role in shaping his legacy. For the first time since the outbreak of the Gaza war in 2023, Netanyahu took the stand in proceedings that have bitterly divided Israelis.

With 2024 coming to an end, the Israeli prime minister will likely agree to sign a ceasefire accord with Hamas to halt the 14-month-old Gaza war and free Israeli hostages held in the enclave, according to sources close to the negotiations.

But Gaza would stay under Israeli military control in the absence of a post-war US plan for Israel to cede power to the Palestinian Authority (PA), which Netanyahu rejects. Arab states have shown little inclination to press Israel to compromise or push the decaying PA to overhaul its leadership to take over.

"Israel will remain in Gaza militarily in the foreseeable future because any withdrawal carries the risk of Hamas reorganizing. Israel believes that the only way to maintain the military gains is to stay in Gaza," Khatib told Reuters.

For Netanyahu, such a result would mark a strategic victory, consolidating a status quo that aligns with his vision: Preventing Palestinian statehood while ensuring Israel's long-term control over Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem -- territories internationally recognised as integral to a future Palestinian state.

The Gaza war erupted when Hamas militants stormed into Israel on October 07, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. Israel responded with an air and land offensive that has killed 45,000 people, health authorities there say, displaced 1.2 million and left much of the enclave in ruins.

While the ceasefire pact would bring an immediate end to the Gaza hostilities, it would not address the deeper, decades-old Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Arab and Western officials say.

On the ground, prospects for a Palestinian state, an option repeatedly ruled out by Netanyahu's government, have become increasingly unattainable, with Israeli settler leaders optimistic that Trump will align closely with their views.

A surge in settler violence and the increasing confidence of the settler movement - highway billboards in some West Bank areas bear the message in Arabic "No Future in Palestine" - reflect a growing squeeze on Palestinians.

Even if the Trump administration were to push for an end to the conflict, "any resolution would be on Israel’s terms," said Hiltermann of the Crisis Group.

"It's over when it comes to a Palestinian state, but the Palestinians are still there," he said.

In Trump's previous term, Netanyahu secured several diplomatic wins, including the “Deal of the Century,” a US-backed peace plan which Trump floated in 2020 to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The plan, if implemented, marks a dramatic shift in US policy and international agreements by overtly aligning with Israel and deviating sharply from a long-standing land for peace framework that has historically guided negotiations.

It would allow Israel to annex vast stretches of land in the occupied West Bank, including Israeli settlements and the Jordan Valley. It would also recognize Jerusalem as the "undivided capital of Israel" - effectively denying Palestinian claims to East Jerusalem as their capital, a central aspiration in their statehood goals and in accordance with UN resolutions.

SYRIA AT CRITICAL CROSSROADS

Across the border from Israel, Syria stands at a critical juncture following the overthrow of Assad by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel forces, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, better known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani.

Golani now faces the monumental task of consolidating control over a fractured Syria, where the military and police force have collapsed. HTS has to rebuild from scratch, securing borders and maintaining internal stability against threats from jihadists, remnants of the Assad regime, and other adversaries.

The greatest fear among Syrians and observers alike is whether HTS, once linked to al-Qaeda but now presenting itself as a Syrian nationalist force to gain legitimacy, reverts to a rigid Islamist ideology.

The group’s ability or failure to navigate this balance will shape the future of Syria, home to diverse communities of Sunnis, Shi'ites, Alawites, Kurds, Druze and Christians.

"If they succeed in that (Syrian nationalism) there's hope for Syria, but if they revert to their comfort zone of quite strongly ideologically-tainted Islamism, then it's going to be divisive in Syria," said Hiltermann.

"You could have chaos and a weak Syria for a long time, just like we saw in Libya and Iraq."

Iran: Biggest loser after Assad’s fall

Among the central factors that led to the ouster of Bashar al Assad was Iranian and Russian decisions not to intervene yet again to prop him up. While Syria’s trajectory remains highly uncertain, its post-Assad posture is likely to be inimical to both the countries.    

Tehran had long used Syria as vector to project influence in the region and marshalled significant resources and manpower to keep Assad in power when the Syrian civil war erupted in 2011.

Moscow similarly saw its ties with Assad as a source of regional influence, and its 2015 intervention in Syria was decisive in Assad maintaining his stranglehold on power.

But with Russia bogged down in Ukraine, and Iran — and its allies like Hezbollah — severely weakened by the post October 07, 2023 conflict with Israel, neither patron was willing to rescue Assad once again.

USIP’s Garrett Nada explains what Assad’s ouster means for Iran: 

The toppling of the Assad regime is a major loss for Iran, which has not been so isolated or vulnerable in the region since the 1980-1988 war with Iraq. Syria was Iran’s only close state ally in the Middle East. It was a frontline against Iran’s archenemy Israel and the linchpin of Tehran’s ability to project power in the Levant. For four decades, Syria was the main conduit for Iran’s supply of weapons and equipment to Hezbollah in Lebanon, which became the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor.

Iran’s extensive support to Assad during the Syrian civil war, which broke out in 2011, reflected the country’s importance for Tehran’s regional strategy. Iran deployed thousands of military advisers and troops, mobilized tens of thousands of foreign Shiite fighters from as far away as Afghanistan and Pakistan to bolster regime forces, and organized a new Syrian paramilitary and provided billions of dollars in aid. Iran’s efforts, coupled with Russian air support, helped keep Assad in control of much of Syria until late 2024.  

Iranian officials quickly accepted the fate of the Assad regime despite all the blood and treasure invested. “It is the Syrian people who must decide on the future of their country and its political and governmental system,” President Masoud Pezeshkian said on December 08, 2024.

Iran’s foreign ministry expressed a willingness to engage with a new government. “The Iranian and Syrian nations have always had long-standing and friendly relationship,” it said on December 08.

“It is expected that this relationship will continue with a wise and forward-looking approach by both nations, based on mutual interests and adherence to international legal obligations.”

Iran asked HTS to protect Shiite holy sites in Syria, and HTS confirmed that it would protect the Sayyida Zeinab shrine in Damascus.

Yet Iran’s future relationship with Syria is dubious. Many of the players poised to play key roles in the transition hold Iran responsible for propping up the brutal Assad regime.

“This new triumph, my brothers, marks a new chapter in the history of the region, a history fraught with dangers (that left) Syria as a playground for Iranian ambitions, spreading sectarianism, stirring corruption,” Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al Sham, said in his victory speech on December 08.

On the same day, Iran’s embassy in Damascus, previously evacuated, was vandalized and looted. Posters of the supreme leader and other Iranians were torn and discarded on the floor.

The fall of Assad may push Iran to reconsider its “forward defense” strategy. For decades, Iran has relied on the “Axis of Resistance,” including Syria and militia allies across region, to pressure Israel and deter strikes on Iranian soil. The goal was to keep conflicts far from Iran’s borders. But the axis already faced severe setbacks before Assad’s departure.

Israel significantly weakened both Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon during the war that erupted after the Hamas-led October 07 terrorist attacks. Israeli forces killed senior leaders and thousands of fighters and degraded both groups’ abilities to wage war. Iran will face significant logistical challenges to resupplying Hezbollah without the Syrian land bridge.

Meanwhile, Iran lacks credible mechanisms to deter Israel. Tehran launched unprecedented direct attacks on Israel, one in April 2024 including 170 drones, at least 30 cruise missiles, and more than 120 ballistic missiles, and one in October 2024 including more than 180 ballistic missiles. But neither caused significant damage or dissuaded Israel from launching counterattacks, the second of which crippled Iran’s air defenses and damaged missile production capabilities.

The remaining members of the “Axis of Resistance” are not much help in terms of deterring Israel. The Houthis in Yemen have proven resilient despite attacks by the US and Israel but have only carried out sporadic long-range missile and drone attacks.

The Iraqi militias backed by Iran, such as Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, are also relatively peripheral and have not caused much damage to Israeli targets.

With limited options, a growing number of Iranian officials have called for revising the country’s nuclear doctrine to allow the production of nuclear weapons. As of late 2024, Iran could produce enough highly enriched uranium to fuel one nuclear bomb in as little as one or two weeks.

Tehran would need several months or more than a year to assemble a warhead and marry it to a delivery system, such as a ballistic missile. But moving to weaponize would come with its own serious risks.

 

Shattering of Axis of Resistance

The recent collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria marks a significant and unexpected development for Iran, comparable in its surprise to the Taliban’s swift takeover of Kabul in 2021. Iran has been a steadfast ally of Assad, who thought the cost of resistance is less than the cost of compromise. Tehran provided Damascus with substantial military and financial support throughout the Syrian civil war. The sudden downfall of Assad’s government not only disrupts Iran’s strategic foothold in the Levant but also challenges its influence in the broader Middle East region.

The rapid fall of the Western-backed government in Kabul — with which Tehran had sought to engage diplomatically to maintain stability along Iran’s eastern border — similarly caught the Iranian leadership off guard. This event as well as Assad’s toppling both underscore the volatility of regional alliances and the complexities Iran faces in navigating its foreign policy objectives amid rapidly changing political landscapes.

While Iran had at least prepared for a scenario of the Taliban’s return and established some contacts and exchanges with the group even before the latter returned to power, the collapse of the Assad regime, described as a key link in the Axis of Resistance, came more suddenly.

Only a few days before the fall of Damascus to the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Iran started evacuating its key assets and personnel, including high-ranking military advisors and members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), to save critical resources.

It is vital for Iran at this point to secure a role in shaping the future of Syria’s political landscape to prevent an adversarial government and to be able to preserve some level of strategic influence in the region.

Although the common border with Afghanistan is perhaps the number one security concern for Iran to the east, Syria’s strategic value cannot be overstated when it comes to Iran’s western flank.

Syria was the heart of the resistance, which provided a direct link to Hezbollah in Lebanon and supported Iran’s deterrence against Israel. Thus, losing Syria not only disrupts the Axis of Resistance but also weakens Iran’s ability to project power in the region.

In the absence of Iranian proxies on the ground, the resulting power vacuum is likely to be filled by Turkey or Saudi Arabia, which in turn could force Iran to redirect its focus to defending its interests in other places.

At home, the legitimacy of the Iranian regime was severely damaged by its violent crackdowns on the Mahsa Amini protests in late 2022-early 2023. At the same time, Iran’s broad and substantial investments in Syria and elsewhere, which many Iranians saw as a costly miscalculation, intensified public criticism and political dissent over neglected economic issues.

Fears that their country could follow a path toward civil war, similar to those in Syria and Libya, deterred some from advocating for regime change at any cost. If Syria now descends into another civil war with further destruction, it could validate these concerns. However, if Syria manages to form an inclusive and stable government free of revenge, it could inspire Iranians.

In the aftermath of Assad’s collapse, Tehran will likely recalibrate its regional strategy, strengthening its militia networks, particularly Hezbollah and Shi’a militias in Syria and Iraq as the primary focus. These will need to serve as Tehran’s primary tool for projecting power in the absence of a friendly Syrian government.

Iran may also attempt to expand its regional alliances with Russia and China to sustain its ambitions. However, given the outcome of its previous reliance on Moscow to protect the Assad regime, Iran may need to recalculate the level of Russian support it can truly expect.

Rethinking its Syria policy may additionally encourage Tehran to shift from overt to covert approaches — a potentially challenging aim due to Iran’s over-stretched resources.

Assad’s downfall marks a significant setback for Iran’s regional strategy, disrupting the latter’s network of alliances and diminishing its influence in the Levant.

Courtesy: Middle East Institute

 

 

 

Syria: Opportunities and Pitfalls for Israel

The fall of Assad, an implacable foe of Israel who turned Syria into a staging ground for Iranian threats and weapons transfers to Hezbollah, is not something Israel would lament. With Syrian rebel forces rapidly advancing south toward Damascus after already taking Aleppo and Hama, the ground in Syria is shifting.

This shift is due in no small measure to the twin blows Israel dealt Hezbollah and Iran since the launch of Operation Northern Arrows in mid-September, aimed at returning displaced Israeli residents to their homes along the northern border.

In its war in Lebanon, Israel decapitated Hezbollah’s leadership, killed and wounded thousands of its fighters, and significantly degraded its missile and rocket capabilities. Hezbollah, which once fought in Syria to prop up the dictatorial regime of President Bashar al-Assad, is in no position to help Assad today as his regime has crumbled.

Iran also suffered blows at the hands of Israel – most notably the destruction of much of its air defense network and critical missile manufacturing infrastructure during Jerusalem’s retaliatory raid on October 26.

With Hezbollah severely weakened and Hamas in Gaza also no longer an effective proxy, Iran – which has made an art form of sending others to be killed to further its own interests – finds itself unable to provide Assad with the same level of assistance it once did. It also struggles to project the same regional power if wielded just a few months ago.

Assad’s other ally, Russia, whose intervention in the civil war in 2015 tipped the scales in his favor, is also unable to give Assad what it did in the past, preoccupied and overextended with its own war in Ukraine.

With Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia weakened – two of them due to Israeli action – Syrian rebels seized the opportunity to advance, launching their offensive on the same day a ceasefire was implemented in Lebanon. Hezbollah, weary and depleted, was in no position to counter the rebel advance.

The fall of Assad, an implacable foe of Israel who turned Syria into a staging ground for Iranian threats and weapons transfers to Hezbollah, is not something Israel would lament. However, the composition of the rebel forces threatening Assad’s regime is not an alliance that the Jewish state can applaud.

They are led by Sunni jihadists recently aligned with al-Qaeda and who remain on America’s list of terrorist organizations and also include Turkish-backed Islamists.

Israel has a clear interest in seeing Syria removed from Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” ending its role as a host for Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps operatives and Iranian-sponsored militias and as a potential launch-pad for attacks against Israel.

Syria under Assad was a crucial pillar of Hezbollah’s strength in Lebanon, serving as the main conduit for smuggling missiles and advanced weaponry into the country. If Syria is taken out of the equation, Hezbollah – already reeling from Israel’s onslaught – will face even greater difficulties rebuilding.

This would be welcome news for many in Lebanon seeking freedom from Hezbollah and Iran’s stranglehold. One significant side effect of Assad’s fall could be a chance for the Lebanese to finally regain control of their own country.

While these developments are largely positive for Israel, they come with complications. Jerusalem has no interest in seeing its neighbor to the northeast taken over by Sunni jihadists of the al-Qaeda ilk or Turkish-backed Islamists. Israel’s experience with such groups – like Hamas in Gaza – has been anything but encouraging.

What happens in Syria will most definitely have an impact on Israel in the future that is why Jerusalem must keep a vigilant eye there, sending messages to all concerned that there are two developments it will not tolerate. The first is chemical weapons depots falling into the hands of jihadist or Islamist rebels, and the second is the mass deployment of Iranian troops into the country.

Those are redlines that, if crossed, would severely compromise Israel’s national security and would necessitate immediate Israeli action to prevent.

Beyond these redlines, Israel can do little to positively impact developments inside Syria, other than working behind the scenes with the US to establish channels with more moderate elements in the opposition, hoping they will emerge as a constructive force in shaping Syria’s future. 

Courtesy: The Jerusalem Post

Condemnation of Israeli attack on Iran

It may not be wrong to say that Israel having killed thousands in Gaza and Lebanon is now attacking Iran directly with regular intervals. One can say with complete confidence that Israel is doing all this under the patronage of United States. It is worth noting that some of the Muslim countries have condemned Saturday’s attack on Iran, with the request to apply restraint.   

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia has condemned Israel’s attacks on Iran as a violation of the country’s sovereignty and a violation of international laws and norms.

“The Kingdom affirms its firm position in its rejection of the continued escalation in the region and the expansion of the conflict that threatens the security and stability of the countries and peoples of the region,” the Saudi Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Riyadh also urged all parties to “exercise the utmost restraint and reduce escalation”, warning of the ramifications of continuing military conflicts in the region.

Malaysia

Malaysia’s Foreign Ministry also released a statement in response to Israel’s overnight attacks, labelling the strikes a “clear violation of international law” that “seriously undermine regional security”.

“Malaysia calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities and an end to the cycle of violence,” the statement said.

The Foreign Ministry added that Israel’s continued attacks on countries in the Middle East is bringing the region closer to the brink of a wider war.

Iraq

Iraqi Shia cleric and head of National Wisdom Movement, Ammar Hakim, has strongly condemned recent Israeli attacks on Iranian cities, expressing solidarity with the Iranian people, their leadership, and government.

Hakim urged the international community to unite in countering the spread of Israeli influence, which he argued violates international charters and norms. He warned that Israel’s actions threaten to escalate conflicts, extending violence beyond Palestine and Lebanon into Syria, Iran, and other nations.

Hakim called on the United Nations and the Security Council to take decisive action to prevent Israel’s behavior from further destabilizing the region.

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Pakistan

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif stated on Saturday that Pakistan firmly condemns Israel's recent aggression against Iran and stands with Iran and its neighbors in their pursuit of peace.

He also called on all parties involved to exercise restraint to prevent further escalation. On his social media platform X, the prime minister posted, “Deeply concerned by the recent act of Israeli aggression against Iran. Such actions threaten regional peace and stability and violate sovereignty and international law.”

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Kuwait

Kuwait’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued a strong condemnation of Israel’s recent military action against Iran, describing it as part of a broader policy aimed at destabilizing the region through violations of national sovereignty.

In a statement released Saturday, the ministry highlighted that Israel’s aggression against Iran exemplifies a disruptive approach that endangers the security of the entire region and disregards international laws and norms.

The ministry called on the international community and the UN Security Council to take responsibility in curbing these actions, which threaten the region’s future and the welfare of its people. It emphasized the importance of decisive steps to uphold regional security and stability, grounded in international laws and treaties.

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United Arab Emirates 

The UAE has strongly condemned Israel’s military strikes on Iran, and expressed its deep concern over the continued escalation and its repercussions on security and stability in the region.
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Oman

Oman’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has condemned Israel’s recent attack on Iranian territory, calling it a blatant violation of Iran’s sovereignty and international law.

The ministry stated that Israel’s latest act of aggression attempted to target military sites in Tehran province early Saturday, but the assault reportedly failed to achieve its objectives. This incident, it noted, is part of a broader pattern of Israeli hostilities in the region.

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Israel strikes military targets in Iran

Israel has launched direct airstrikes against Iran in a high-stakes retaliatory attack that brings the Middle East closer to a regional war.

The Israeli military said it had completed its air attack on Saturday morning, hitting missile manufacturing sites and aerial defences in several areas inside Iran. Israel’s public broadcaster said three waves of strikes had been completed.

Iranian air defences said Israel attacked military targets in the provinces of Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam and that “limited damage” was caused to some locations.

A senior US official described the strikes as “extensive”, “precise” and against military targets across Iran. The US did not participate in the strikes, the official said, but worked with the Israeli government to encourage a low-risk attack with no civilian harm.

“The effect was a proportionate self-defence response. The effect is to deter future attacks and to degrade Iran’s abilities to launch future attacks.”

The official stressed that the US considered the operation to be an “end to the exchange of fire between Israel and Iran”.

“This should be the end of the direct military exchange between Israel and Iran – we had a direct exchange in April and that was closed off and now we’ve had this direct exchange again.”

At least seven explosions were reported over the capital, Tehran, and nearby Karaj as well as the eastern city of Mashhad just after 2.30am local time on Saturday, as Israeli jets struck military targets in the country.

Iranian media initially appeared to downplay the airstrikes, noting that Tehran’s airport was operating normally. State TV reported several strong explosions heard around the capital, while the state news agency, IRNA, said there had been no casualties. There was no immediate official comment about the source of explosions, which Iranian news outlets reported were under investigation. Air defence systems were activated around the country.

In a statement, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) took the rare step of acknowledging the attack on Iran, in a confirmation that a decades-old shadow war between the enemy states has now firmly moved into the open.

Before Israel launched the airstrikes on Saturday, Iran had repeatedly warned there were “no red lines” for Iran on the issue of defending itself. Last week, the country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, also indirectly threatened US forces against operating in Israel after Washington dispatched a Thaad advanced missile defence system battery and 100 troops to aid its ally amid the tensions.

The White House was notified shortly before Israel carried out airstrikes on Iran, a spokesperson said. The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, had said on Wednesday that Israel’s retaliation should not lead to greater escalation.

What after Sinwar assassination?

The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is raising new questions over the course of the war and the fate of hostages still held by Hamas. While the United States is pressing both the sides to seize the opportunity to end the fighting, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems adamant at continuing the genocide.

Sinwar was considered the main obstacle in achieving a cease-fire and hostage deal over the course of a year of negotiations, Netanyahu has also been criticized as moving the goal posts in talks and prioritizing the military operation to eliminate Hamas over diplomacy to release hostages. 

US President Biden and Vice President Kamala the Democratic presidential nominee, said in reaction to Sinwar’s killing that there is now an opportunity for a “day after” in Gaza without Hamas in power.

“This moment gives us an opportunity to finally end the war in Gaza, and it must end such that Israel is secure, the hostages are released, the suffering in Gaza ends, and the Palestinian people can realize their right to dignity, security, freedom and self-determination,” Kamala said in remarks from Wisconsin. 

Netanyahu, in a recorded speech confirming Sinwar’s death, showed no signs of letting up Israel’s military operations, which have succeeded in devastating Hamas’s leadership and military capabilities, while also devastating the Strip, causing a mass humanitarian crisis, and resulting in the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinians. 

“Now it is clear to everyone in Israel and the world why we insisted on not ending the war, why we persisted in the face of all pressure,” Netanyahu said. 

“The war is not over yet and it is hard and it is exacting a heavy price from us. Citizens of Israel, we are in the war of resurrection, great challenges are still ahead of us … together we will fight and with God’s help together we will win.”

In his remarks, Netanyahu said Israel would give amnesty to anyone who willingly releases remaining hostages — Hamas or other armed groups in Gaza like Palestinian Islamic Jihad and civilian families.

“I call on everyone who holds our hostages: Whoever lays down his weapon and returns our hostages — we will allow him to go out and live.”

He added that the return of hostages would bring “the end of the war closer.” 

Biden congratulated Netanyahu on the killing in a call from Air Force One as he traveled to Germany.

The White House said the two leaders agreed there is an opportunity to advance the release of the hostages “and to bring the war to a close with Israel’s security assured and Hamas never again able to control Gaza.”

Netanyahu’s office, in their description of the call, did not address ending the war, but focused on advancing the release of hostages.  

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made calls Thursday to his counterparts in Qatar and Saudi Arabia as part of the administration’s push to “redouble its efforts” to end the conflict and secure the release of hostages, the State Department said. 

Now there’s a question, who will speak for Hamas? Khaled Meshaal, a senior Palestinian political official in exile in Qatar, is one name being raised as a possible replacement.

In an interview marking one year since Hamas’s attack, Meshaal said the armed group will “rise like a phoenix” even if its military and leadership are devastated. 

“We don’t know who will be on the other end of the negotiating table now, but it certainly won’t be Sinwar,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said.

Even Netanyahu’s opponents in Israel are signaling support for continuing the war against Hamas and an ongoing Israeli military presence in the Strip. 

Benny Gantz, chair of the National Unity Party who resigned from Netanyahu’s wartime Cabinet, said in a statement that the Israeli military “will have to continue operating in Gaza for years,” although he added that “this moment must be seized and leveraged to bring the hostages home and topple the Hamas regime.” 

“Sinwar, who was described as a major obstacle to a deal, is no longer alive. It is critical that all attention is now focused on achieving the goal of a deal which will secure the release of our son Omer and the rest of the hostages,” the Neutras said in a statement. 

“We’re calling on the Israeli government and the US administration to act swiftly and do whatever is needed to reach a deal with the captors. We are at an inflection point where the goals set for the war with Gaza have been achieved, all but the release of the hostages.”

Members of the US Congress also reacted to Sinwar’s death with support for the revival of cease-fire and hostage release talks. 

“It is my hope that Sinwar’s elimination will result in further progress toward the release of all hostages still held in Gaza, as well as to a cease-fire for Palestinians who have suffered under Hamas’s grip for far too long,” said Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), chair of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. 

Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.), a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said he hopes Sinwar’s death “marks a turning point in this war.” 

“Let us all unite in praying that, at last, the door will open to the end of this terrible war, the remaining hostages will be released, the recovery in Gaza will begin, and the efforts toward securing peace will be renewed.”

 

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar killed

Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas and the architect of the Octtober 07 attack on Israel, was killed on Thursday during an Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

“Eliminated: Yahya Sinwar,” the IDF posted on X Thursday, after NewsNation reported his death in the morning.

The IDF and Shin Bet, its internal security service, released a statement confirming some details of the operation.

“Yahya Sinwar was eliminated after hiding for the past year behind the civilian population of Gaza, both above and below ground in Hamas tunnels in the Gaza Strip,” it said.

“The dozens of operations carried out by the IDF and the ISA over the last year, and in recent weeks in the area where he was eliminated, restricted Yahya Sinwar’s operational movement as he was pursued by the forces and led to his elimination.”

Sinwar was Israel’s top target in Gaza, but survived in Hamas’s underground tunnel network for more than a year as the war of his making raged above.  

A messianic psychopath is how one US official described Sinwar. Among Hamas leadership, he was viewed as “a nasty guy,” said one analyst. As an enforcer in the 1980s, he earned the moniker “Butcher of Khan Yunis.”

Sinwar viewed tens of thousands of Palestinians killed in a war with Israel “as necessary sacrifices” to achieve his goal of destroying the Jewish State. That appeared to be the inspiration for Hamas launching the attack against Israel on October 07; committing a massacre of such brutality it would trigger a massive Israeli response. 

“For Netanyahu, a victory would be even worse than a defeat,” Sinwar told an Italian journalist in 2018, of the Israeli prime minister, according to a profile by the Wall Street Journal.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at the time that the “depravity defies comprehension,” in viewing the aftermath of the 1,200 people killed on October 07, Of the 250 people taken hostage, about 101 hostages remain in Hamas captivity.  

Dubbed a “dead-man walking,” by Israel’s military in the aftermath of the attack, Sinwar evaded Israeli forces by hiding among the armed groups subterranean tunnel system; surrounding himself with hostages; and communicating through letter-writing to avoid electronic detection. 

Believed to be between 61-63 years, Sinwar came of age in the Gaza Strip during the 1967 six-day war, when Israel captured the Strip from Egypt; and the first intifada, or uprising, against Israel, in the 1980s. Raised in a refugee camp, Sinwar joined the burgeoning Hamas movement, charged with hunting down and killing suspected Palestinian informants to Israel. 

He was arrested by Israeli forces in 1988 and given four life sentences for the abduction and murder of two Israeli soldiers. But his time in jail served as an education to understand his enemy, learning the Hebrew language and studying Israeli culture and politics. He published a novel in 2004 that centered on themes of oppression and resistance. 

Sinwar had his life saved in prison, when an Israeli dentist signaled that he had something wrong with his brain, and was rushed into emergency surgery. But he showed no easing of his religious fervor to liberate what he viewed as Islamic land. 

He was released from prison in 2011, one of 1,027 Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for one Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit, who Hamas held hostage for five years. 

Sinwar’s life experience would help write the blueprint for the October 07 attack. In 2012, Hamas, for the first time, demonstrated that its rocket arsenal could hit Tel Aviv, and that was part of a short, but critical war that laid out a pattern of escalation between Hamas and Israel, and negotiation for periods of calm. Similar scenarios were repeated in 2014, 2018 and 2021. 

The Israeli security establishment, under the leadership of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during this time, began to refer to these operations as “mowing the lawn.”

It’s that sense of control that critics say lulled Israel’s intelligence into complacency ahead of October 07, despite warnings from young, female intelligence observers that a major attack was being prepared.  

Sinwar’s death marks a major operational success for the Israel Defense Forces, an ongoing psychological blow to Israel’s adversaries of Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iran – where the most senior leaders, and who were vaults of operational knowledge, have been picked off one by one.

This includes Hezbollah’s long-time chief Hassan Nasrallah, killed in a bomb strike in September, the assassination of his successors; and the assassination of top Hamas political chief Ismael Haniyeh at a guesthouse in Tehran in July. Israel allegedly killed Hamas’s number three official, Saleh al-Arouri, in Beirut in January. 

It’s unclear how Sinwar’s absence from the battlefield will impact Israel’s intent to eliminate Hamas completely from the Gaza Strip, whether it will change the dynamics of hostage talks that have stalled for months, or Israel’s operations in Lebanon or plans to respond to recent attacks from Iran.

 

Israel getting desperate to attack Iran

Since October 07, 2023 Israeli citizens have been holding their collective breath, knowing that the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip and incessant fire exchanges on the northern border could escalate into a full-scale regional war at any moment.

The mysterious attack in Lebanon on Tuesday, in which thousands of pagers in the use of Hezbollah operatives exploded, apparently killing at least 11 and wounding thousands more, has made that possibility more likely than ever.

A war with the Iranian-backed militia to Israel’s north could quickly expand into war with Iran, which has yet to avenge the assassination of Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in late July, despite Islamic Republic leaders vowing a response.

Israel, in turn, stated it would exact a heavy price from the Iranian regime were it to carry out a significant attack against the Jewish state.

Maj-Gen. (res.) Itzhak Brik is adamant that war with Iran now would lead to Israel’s destruction.

Security expert Yair Ansbacher is convinced that war with Iran at this point is a must – to avoid Israel’s destruction.

This is the fork in the road that Israel faces today, 11 months after Hamas initiated the horrific October 07 attack, in which 1,200 Israelis and other nationals were murdered and 250 more were taken hostage.

Additional factors such as the apparent exhaustion of negotiations between Israel and Hamas for a ceasefire agreement, and the Israeli government’s decision earlier in the week to make the return of displaced northern residents an official war goal, have increased the likelihood of a regional war.

Speaking to The Jerusalem Post on the phone earlier in the week, Brik warned that Israel is not prepared for a multi-front war.

“Iran and its proxies have 250,000 missiles, rockets, and drones encircling Israel. Which means about 4,000 munitions hitting the Israeli home front on a daily basis, population centers, Haifa Bay, water and electricity facilities, gas fields [in the Mediterranean Sea], IDF bases, and strategic civilian infrastructure. A regional war can ruin the State of Israel,” he stressed.

Brik further warned that Israel would enter this all-out war alone, without the aid of the United States.

“Iran is backed by Russia, China, and North Korea, who don’t want to lose their [Iranian] asset,” he said, explaining that the US will avoid getting involved in a war that could develop into a world war.

What Israel should do, he advised, is build a strategic alliance with Western and moderate Arab nations that will form a “deterrence balance” against Iran and its partners. Trying to thwart the Islamic Republic’s nuclear capacity is futile, he added, which “is a development that can’t be stopped.”

Ansbacher views the situation differently. He is certain that now is the right time to strike Iran, before it makes its final nuclear breakthrough.

“If today the West has little success in taming the ayatollahs, it will have zero success when they obtain nuclear weapons,” he said via Zoom with the Post last week.

“Iran will provide a nuclear umbrella to terrorists across the globe. Imagine Hezbollah kidnaps [IDF] soldiers on [Israel’s] northern border, and before Israel launches a rescue operation, Hezbollah sends a message that this could result in a nonconventional missile attack. This is a scenario that we cannot accept,” Ansbacher stipulated.

In addition, the possibility of a hostile US administration come the November election, along with the inferior position Iran found itself in after the October 07 attack – exposing its plan to annihilate Israel – means that Jerusalem must now use this narrow opportunity to strike Iran, he noted.

“Tehran’s original plan was to attack Israel simultaneously [on all fronts], and that would have brought us to the brink of extinction. But their plan was disrupted when [Hamas head] Yahya Sinwar jumped the gun. This puts Iran in a weakened position. If the plan had fully worked, Israel would have been caught unawares, with all arms of the octopus around its neck. Then it’s checkmate. But the plan’s disadvantage was its extended period of implementation where many things could go wrong,” Ansbacher said.

Attacking Iran now is Israel’s last chance before it faces an existential threat of a nuclear Islamic Republic, he stressed. If Israel hits Iran in its two centers of power, Tehran and Qom, he added, the Iranian regime, largely unsupported by the nonreligious population, will very likely fall.

Hamas names Sinwar new leader

Hamas has named its Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar as chief of the group following Ismail Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran on July 31, the group said in a statement late on Tuesday, a move that reinforces the path pursued since October 07, 2023 attack on Israel.

According to Reuters, Sinwar, the architect of the most devastating attack on Israel in decades, has been in hiding in Gaza, defying Israeli attempts to kill him since the start of the war.

"The Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas announces the selection of Commander Yahya Sinwar as the head of the political bureau of the movement, succeeding the martyr Commander Ismail Haniyeh, may Allah have mercy on him," the movement said in a brief statement.

News of the appointment, which came as Israel braces for a likely attack from Iran following the killing of Haniyeh in Tehran, was greeted with a salvo of rockets from Gaza by the resistance group still fighting Israeli troops in the besieged enclave.

"The appointment means that Israel needs to face Sinwar over a solution to Gaza war," said a regional diplomat familiar with the talks brokered by Egypt and Qatar, which are aimed at bringing a halt to the fighting in Gaza and a return of 115 Israeli and foreign hostages still held in the enclave.

"It is a message of toughness and it is uncompromising."

Sinwar, who spent half his adult life in Israeli prisons, was the most powerful Hamas leader left alive following the assassination of Haniyeh, which has left the region on the brink of a wider regional conflict after Iran vowed harsh retaliation.

Israel's chief military spokesman, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, blamed Sinwar for the Oct 7 attack and said Israel would continue to pursue him.

"There is only one place for Yahya Sinwar, and it is beside Mohammed Deif and the rest of the Oct 7 terrorists," he told Al-Arabiya television, according to a statement released by the military. "That is the only place we're preparing and intending for him."

In a sign that the movement had united around the choice of Sinwar, Khaled Meshaal, a former leader who had been seen as a potential successor to Haniyeh, was said by senior sources in the movement to have backed Sinwar "in loyalty to Gaza and its people, who are waging the battle of the Flood of Al-Aqsa".

For Israel, the appointment confirms Hamas as a foe dedicated to its destruction and is likely to reinforce Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's insistence that Israel must pursue its campaign in Gaza to the end.

The White House declined to comment on Sinwar's appointment. But a person familiar with Washington's thinking said the selection suggested that Hamas could toughen its position in ceasefire negotiations and make it harder to reach a deal.

Israel was already aware that even before his formal appointment Sinwar would have the final word on any agreement to halt the fighting, and the announcement merely set the seal on that.

Ten months since the surprise attack by thousands of Hamas-led fighters who swarmed into Israeli communities around the Gaza Strip in the early hours of the morning of Oct. 7, the war has turned the Middle East on its head and threatened to spiral into a wider regional conflict.

Some 1,200 Israelis and foreigners were killed and more than 250 taken hostage into Gaza. In response, Israel launched a relentless campaign that has so far killed almost 40,000 Palestinians and left the densely populated enclave in ruins.

Attempts at reaching a ceasefire that would give the exhausted population a respite and enable the hostages remaining in captivity to be brought home have foundered amid mutual recriminations from Hamas and Israel.

Hamas official Osama Hamdan told Al Jazeera that the movement remained committed to reaching a deal and the team that handled the negotiations under Haniyeh would continue under Sinwar, who he said was following the talks closely.

But Hani Al-Masri, a political analyst in Ramallah, said Sinwar's appointment to lead the movement overall was a direct challenge to Israel, and sent a message about Hamas' adherence to his "extremist and resistant approach".

"As Sinwar manages the negotiations, he will manage the movement," he said.