Israeli roadmap for Gaza ceasefire

President Biden announced the terms of an Israeli-led proposal Friday that includes a three-part roadmap toward an end to fighting and the release of all remaining hostages taken on October 07, 2023, giving the strongest indication yet for a potential end to the war between Israel and Hamas.

“After intensive diplomacy carried out by my team, my many conversations with leaders of Israel, Qatar and Egypt, and other Middle Eastern countries, Israel has offered a comprehensive new proposal. It’s a roadmap to an enduring cease-fire and the release of all hostages,” Biden said.

He said that while the proposal has been transmitted to Hamas via Qatar, he indicated the US-designated terrorist organization that runs the Gaza Strip had not yet formally accepted the plan.

“This is truly a decisive moment. Israel has made their proposal. Hamas says it wants a ceasefire. This deal is an opportunity to prove whether they really mean it. Hamas needs to take the deal,” Biden said.

Biden also pleaded from the White House podium for Israelis to back the deal, arguing the military has devastated Hamas since the war began on October 07, 2023.

While adding he knows there are Israelis who may not agree with the negotiated deal, he warned against allowing for an indefinite war.

“I know there are those in Israel who will not agree with this plan and will call for the war to continue indefinitely. Some are even in the government coalition. They’ve made it clear they want to occupy Gaza, they want to keep fighting for years, the hostages are not a priority for them,” he said. “I urge Israel to stand behind this deal, despite whatever pressure comes.”

When questioned if Biden meant that Israel has effectively won the war against Hamas, senior administration officials on a call with reporters after Biden spoke said Israel has had success in “degrading Hamas’ military capacity.” 

The official added that the offer wouldn’t have been possible three months ago.

Biden laid out the proposal in three phases:

1- An initial phase would include a six-week ceasefire, then a withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza, and the release of all remaining hostages taken from Israel on October 07.

2- It also includes parameters for internally displaced Palestinians to return to their homes.

3- Reconstruction efforts of the devastated coastal enclave.

According to the arrangement, each of the three phases would be about 42 days long, a senior administration official outlined.

Netanyahu wants unabated killing of Gazans

Israeli prime minister, more focused on saving his incompetent far-right government than saving the hostages who have spent seven months trapped in Gaza, is doing everything he can to torpedo Israel’s last and best chance at bringing the hostages home.

Minister Benny Gantz reiterated that with or without a temporary pause in the fighting for the release of our hostages, we will enter Rafah and eliminate the remaining Hamas battalions.

Later, before the end of Shabbat, Netanyahu sent another message, in which he denied reports saying Israel had agreed to a cease-fire as part of a deal.

Gantz hit the nail on the head this time. Netanyahu is fleeing from a hostage deal. The closer it gets, the faster he runs to avoid it. At least twice in recent months he has sabotaged the sensitive moves toward a deal, whether through public statements or covert messages, or by curbing the mandate of the negotiating team. It was no different this time.

What was the point of these statements, before Hamas had even responded to the proposal, if not to thwart and sabotage.

It is not the 33 hostages who might be released – the sick, the injured, the old; women, including female soldiers – who are uppermost in his thoughts, but rather the 64 Knesset members of his coalition and above all, himself, the head of the government of failure and the October 07 massacre, the criminal defendant, the leader who has lost his people’s trust, the politician whose promises of “total victory” in Gaza if we can only eliminate the four remaining Hamas battalions are dismissed by an overwhelming majority of Israelis, including rightists.

Netanyahu had hoped that the Egyptian proposal, which was more far-reaching than anything he had been willing to accept in the past, would be rejected by Hamas. Over the weekend, when the negotiations took a positive turn, Netanyahu found himself in distress, as was expressed by his flurry of statements. Given the familiarity with his family environment, including his pampered son on the front in Miami, his fright is indeed understandable.

If Hamas says “yes” and even if it adds a “but” in one form or another, Netanyahu will have no choice but to carry through what he agreed with Egypt and the United States. Doing so could lead his Kahanist right flank to bring down the government.

If his attempts at sabotage succeed, the National Union could pull out of the government and its leaders, who still have the trust of a large section of the public, would join the growing calls for early elections.

Is it any wonder he is hysterical? His other options aren’t promising either. If the deal doesn’t go through, he is already committed to ordering the IDF to begin an operation in Rafah. That would cause trouble with the Egyptians and Americans.

And if he does opt for an operation in Rafah, then what kind of operation? An intense, broad campaign of the kind the IDF waged in Khan Yunis and Gaza City will be the final straw that will make Israel an outcast and lead to Netanyahu being accused of war crimes. A ‘feeble’ operation will make him a regional and global joke.

Netanyahu’s well known conduct showed itself vis-a-vis the International Criminal Court in The Hague, which is considering issuing arrest warrants against him (and other senior government and IDF officials). Instead of taking discreet action through diplomatic channels, Netanyahu lashed out at the court, threatening and cursing it, contrary to all the legal advice he received. The court ended up putting out an extraordinary statement over the weekend in which it rejected the threats and scare tactics.

One may ask, what leads Netanyahu to shoot himself in the foot over and again. The answer is connected to his psyche. His default is to exercise force. Just as he applied force in the dealings with the judicial system, the State Prosecutor’s Office and the attorney general before charges were filed against him, he is doing the same thing now with an international legal forum.

Pressure, incitement and threats didn’t prevent an indictment being filed against him. Neither will they prevent arrest warrants being issued – if the ongoing inquiry comes to the conclusion that they should be issued.

Netanyahu has mot learnt any lesson, he doesn’t draw conclusions. His flawed personality, his temper tantrums, his submission to his wife and his son’s craziness, drag him into humiliation every time, and humiliates the country that has the misfortune to have Netanyahu as its leader.

The total failure who sits in the Prime Minister’s Office has succeeded over the past 211 days in leading Israel out of the frying pan and into the fire.

Even right now, he and his wife are dealing with what’s really important: The Independence Day torch-lighting ceremony. Miri Regev, the minister for duplicity and flattery who has appropriated the ceremony for herself has managed to cross Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, one of the family’s lead courtesans and eunuchs, who was appointed to all his positions thanks to his close ties with Netanyahu’s son Yair.

This too, it turns out, is not enough, when what is at stake is the ceremony that is the prized possession of he who fears (justifiably so) the rage of Israelis who have had enough of him.

He announced that he would stay away from the Israel Prize and Bible Quiz ceremonies. When it comes to the torch lighting ceremony, which will be held without an audience – for the same reason – the diplomatic official will send a selfie propaganda reel.

 Courtesy: Information Clearing House

Unyielding negotiations amid fighting in Gaza

White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said Thursday that the US is involved with intense negotiations on securing the release of some hostages held by Palestinian militant group Hamas but there was no deal on the table yet.

Kirby told CNN, the US has a team on the ground that is working by the hour on a potential deal but pumped the brakes on sharing any other details.

“We are in some intense negotiations; hopefully they’ll come out the right way and we’ll have good news to talk about with multiple hostages getting free,” he said. “But we don’t have a deal right now, and until we do, the less said the better.”

A deal could involve the swapping of dozens of Israeli hostages held by Hamas in return for a truce of a few days in the war, along with the release of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, according to media reports.

Qatar, which maintains communications with Israel, Hamas and the US, is also reportedly in the midst of the negotiations. Qatari officials have already helped secure the release of a few Israeli prisoners.

President Biden has also hinted at a deal, telling reporters at a press conference Wednesday night that he was deeply involved in moving on the hostage negotiation.

“We’ve gotten great cooperation from the Qataris. I’ve spoken with them as well a number of times,” Biden said. “I’m mildly hopeful.”

Hamas took about 239 hostages in a deadly October 07 surprise attack on Israel, which also left more than 1,200 Israelis dead.

Israel is now waging an intense war on Hamas, invading Gaza and now fighting in the streets of Gaza City, the Hamas stronghold, to rescue hostages and eradicate the Palestinian militant group.

Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed there would be no cease-fire without the release of hostages and also said his forces would free the prisoners.

But this week, Netanyahu said in a statement released by his office that Israel has been employing increased pressure to secure the release of hostages since launching the Gaza ground invasion in late October.

“If and when there will be something concrete to report,” he said, “we will do so.”

Israel Gaza ground offensive could get messy

According to The Hill, Israel’s expected ground offensive in Gaza will be potentially catastrophic for civilian life in Gaza, while also posing steep risks for Israeli forces and raising the danger of widening a war with Iran-backed proxy groups. 

For the first time in years, Israeli forces will have to penetrate deep into Gaza, a coastal enclave where thousands of Hamas militants operate out of an underground network of tunnels, while also hiding among civilians. 

Israel’s stated goal of eliminating the group will require a long, bloody fight against guerilla combatants known to use human shields in the densely packed Gaza Strip. 

“It’s going to be very, very messy,” said Raphael Cohen, a senior political scientist at Rand Corporation with expertise on the Middle East and defense strategy. 

“Rooting all that out is not particularly easy. And in order to do that, that’s a fairly significant military operation and it will take a lot of time — potentially a lot of casualties.”

Further complicating the mission is that Israeli forces need to rescue some 150 hostages, including some Americans and other foreign nationals. 

And a large-scale attack in Gaza may open a new front in the war, with the Lebanese militia Hezbollah reportedly warning it will respond if Israeli forces invade the coastal enclave.

Israeli officials are determined to respond decisively after Hamas killed more than 1,300 people in a surprise attack last Saturday. 

A ground invasion now appears to be imminent after Israel on Friday ordered the evacuation of more than one million people in Gaza. However, many people have nowhere to go, with Egypt loath to open its border to the south. Hamas has also urged residents not to flee. Israel has blockaded the territory for years and this week cut off its fuel and electricity in a siege that has spurred warnings of a humanitarian crisis. 

Israeli forces have spent days mopping up the remaining militants and launching mass air strikes on Gaza that killed more than 1,500 Palestinians. They have also conducted limited raids into Gaza.

Analysts say the delay so far of a ground invasion is likely part of Israel’s strategy to pressure Palestinian militants with rocket strikes and to prepare for all possible contingencies, while integrating some 300,000 reservists into combat duty.

Phil Andrew, a principal at the global conflict and crisis consulting firm Pax Group, said it was important to be “listening and collecting as much information as you can” and ensuring everything is in place for a rescue mission.

The trickiest part of the mission will be to locate and safely extract the hostages, who are likely hidden in various locations throughout Gaza and subject to the whims of various Hamas factions and individual leaders, rather than a strict military command structure.

Andrew warned that Israel was conducting a risky operation by telegraphing an intention to destroy Hamas while also trying to keep the hostages alive. That could ruin any communications channels needed for negotiations, he said, and Hamas has previously warned it will kill hostages if pressed.

Israeli operations into the Gaza Strip will also pose enormous risks for both its soldiers and Palestinian civilians caught in the crossfire.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said at a Friday press conference that soldiers will not shoot civilians on purpose as they attempt to destroy Hamas and take these phenomena out of Gaza and out of the Earth.

“Therefore we are asking all the civilians in Gaza City to go south of Gaza.  And the reason is that because we don’t want to harm them,” he said. “The camouflage of the terrorists is the civil population. Therefore we need to separate them. So those who want to save their life, please go south.”

Knox Thames, an international human rights advocate, said Israel “must avoid civilian casualties.”

“But Hamas often embeds its fire platforms and organizational nodes within civilian areas, using them as a shield, and when civilians die, using them as a propaganda message,” Thames said in an emailed statement.

Bilal Saab, director of the defense and security program at the Middle East Institute (MEI), said Israel has the capability to massively degrade Hamas’ military capabilities, but it was a question of how many casualties of Israeli soldiers and civilians Jerusalem is willing to sacrifice.

Saab said the stated goal of completely eradicating Hamas will be near impossible because Hamas has political support, making it even tougher to wipe out than a traditional terrorist group like ISIS.

“I understand the political logic behind it,” he said. “You want a message to your population that you are going to extract some heavy punishment on your opponent, but there’s no way they’re going to be able to defeat a deeply rooted organization.”

If Hezbollah is pulled into the war, that may prove even more problematic for Israel’s military than any trouble inside Gaza itself.

If Israel were forced to fight against two militant groups backed by Iran, it would be stretched much thinner and less able to concentrate on its main objective, eradicating Hamas.

Hezbollah is far better equipped and advanced than Hamas. The Lebanese militant group, an archenemy of Israel along with its creator Iran, has already begun firing rockets and artillery in nonstop tit-for-tat exchanges with Israel.

Saab said the risk of a front opening with Hezbollah was very real, but added Israel does not have much of a choice.

“If you are communicating to Hezbollah that you’re so worried about opening a second front that we’re not going to go after Hamas, that’s going to set a precedent for the future,” he explained. “They have to show that they are able to handle multiple fronts.”