Netanyahu accuses France, Britain and Canada of 'emboldening' Hamas

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused the leaders of France, Britain and Canada of wanting to help the Palestinian militant group Hamas after they threatened to take "concrete action" if Israel did not stop its latest offensive in Gaza.

The criticism, echoing similar remarks from Foreign Minister Gideon Saar on Thursday, was part of a fightback by the Israeli government against the increasingly heavy international pressure on it over the war in Gaza.

"You're on the wrong side of humanity and you're on the wrong side of history," Netanyahu said.

The Israeli leader, facing an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court over alleged war crimes in Gaza, has regularly criticized European countries as well as global institutions from the United Nations to the International Court of Justice over what he says is their bias against Israel.

But as the flow of images of destruction and hunger in Gaza has continued, fuelling protests in countries around the world, Israel has struggled to turn international opinion, which has increasingly shifted against it

"It's hard to convince at least some people, definitely on the far left in the US and in some countries in Europe, that what Israel is doing is a war of defence," said former Israeli diplomat Yaki Dayan.

"But this is how it is perceived in Israel and bridging this gap is sometimes an impossible mission," he said.

Israeli officials have been particularly concerned about growing calls for other countries in Europe to follow the example of Spain and Ireland in recognizing a Palestinian state as part of a two-state solution to resolve decades of conflict in the region.

Netanyahu argues that a Palestinian state would threaten Israel and he has framed the killing of two Israeli embassy staffers in Washington on Tuesday by a man who allegedly shouted "Free Palestine" as a clear example of that threat.

He said "exactly the same chant" was heard during the attack on Israel by Hamas on October 07, 2023.

"They don't want a Palestinian state. They want to destroy the Jewish state," he said in a statement on the social media platform X.

"I could never understand how this simple truth evades the leaders of France, Britain, Canada and others," he said, adding that any moves by Western countries to recognize a Palestinian state would "reward these murderers with the ultimate prize".

Instead of advancing peace, the three leaders were "emboldening Hamas to continue fighting forever", he said.

 

Britain suspends trade talks with Israel

According to Reuters, Britain on Tuesday paused free trade talks with Israel, summoned its ambassador, and announced further sanctions against West Bank settlers as its foreign minister condemned a "monstrous" military escalation in Gaza.

The Israeli military announced the start of a new operation last week and medics in Gaza say Israeli strikes have killed more than 500 people in the past eight days.

Israel has also blocked the entry of medical, food and fuel supplies into Gaza since the start of March, prompting international experts to warn of looming famine, although some trucks were allowed to enter on Monday.

Foreign Minister David Lammy said the offensive was "a dark new phase in this conflict", called for Israel to end the blockade of aid and condemned comments by finance minister Bezalel Smotrich on the possible cleansing and destruction of Gaza and relocation of its residents to third countries.

"It is extremism. It is dangerous. It is repellent. It is monstrous, and I condemn it in the strongest possible terms," a visibly angry Lammy told lawmakers, adding the operation in Gaza was "incompatible with the principles that underpin our bilateral relationship".

"Today, I'm announcing that we have suspended negotiations with this Israeli government on a new free trade agreement."

Israel said Britain had not advanced the trade talks, which started formally in 2022 under a previous Conservative British government, for some time.

"The British Mandate ended exactly 77 years ago," a spokesperson for its foreign ministry said. "External pressure will not divert Israel from its path in defending its existence and security against enemies who seek its destruction."

Lammy said the new offensive would not secure the release of remaining hostages and that January's ceasefire had shown the better path that Israel should follow.

Earlier Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he was "horrified by the escalation" after issuing a joint statement with France and Canada. Lammy said Britain would take further action if Israel pursued its military offensive.

 

 

 

US Allies Reject Trump’s Trade War

In recent political developments, close allies of the United States—Australia, Singapore, and Canada—have pushed back against former President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies. Last year was politically turbulent, with ruling parties in the United States, Britain and other nations losing elections, while governments in countries like Japan and India suffered setbacks. This year, however, the trend appears to be reversing.

Within a single week, Australia, Singapore, and Canada—despite their geographic and cultural differences—held critical elections. All three countries delivered remarkably similar outcomes: victories for incumbent parties that campaigned on strong opposition to Trump’s tariff threats and his transactional approach to global alliances.

Although foreign policy typically plays a minor role in national elections, this time was different. Voters went beyond domestic issues to send a clear message: they reject Trump's combative trade tactics and support leaders who are willing to stand up to them.

The broader takeaway from these elections is the emergence of a new political consensus among America's allies. Public opinion is coalescing around leaders who oppose Trump’s “America First” doctrine, which has disrupted global supply chains, strained diplomatic relationships, and undermined decades of multilateral economic cooperation. This shift signifies not just electoral continuity, but a popular mandate for resisting a zero-sum approach to international relations.

In Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party faces another electoral test this summer, with elections for the less powerful—but still influential—upper house of the Diet. Ahead of this, Japan is eager to secure a trade agreement with the US.

Tokyo is preparing for a third round of tariff negotiations this month, though analysts remain skeptical about a breakthrough. Unlike Brirain, which recently secured a limited deal, Japan faces steeper challenges. It starts from a higher baseline tariff rate and must contend with the Trump administration’s firm stance on automotive trade—one of Japan’s most vital export sectors.

On the cybersecurity front, Sergiy Korsunsky, former Ukrainian ambassador to Japan and now a senior adviser at Nihon Cyber Defence Corporation, warns that excessive data accumulation poses serious risks in the age of artificial intelligence.

Diplomatically, Julia Longbottom, the British Ambassador to Japan, highlights recent British trade deals with India and the United States as evidence of shared values with Japan—particularly a mutual commitment to open and free trade.

Stocks plunge as Trump initiates trade war

Global stocks sunk, a day after US President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs that are forecast to raise prices and weigh on growth in the United States and around the world, reports the Saudi Gazette.

Stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region fell for a second day, hot on the heels of the S&P 500, which had its worst day since Covid crashed the economy in 2020. Nike, Apple and Target were among big consumer names worst hit, all of them sinking by more than 9%.

At the White House, Trump told reporters the US economy would "boom" thanks to the minimum 10% tariff he plans to slap on global imports in the hope of boosting federal revenues and bringing American manufacturing home.

The Republican president plans to hit products from dozens of other countries with far higher levies, including trade partners such as China and the European Union.

China, which is facing an aggregate 54% tariff, and the EU, which faces duties of 20%, both vowed retaliation on Thursday. French President Emmanuel Macron called for European firms to suspend planned investment in the United States.

Tariffs are taxes on goods imported from other countries, and Trump's plan that he announced on Wednesday would hike such duties to some of the highest levels in more than 100 years.

In morning trading on Friday, Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index fell by 2.7% and Australia's ASX 200 was down by 1.6%. The Kospi in South Korea was flat to slightly lower. Markets in mainland China and Hong Kong were closed for the Qingming Festival.

Earlier on Thursday, the S&P 500 — which tracks 500 of the biggest American firms — plunged 4.8%, shedding roughly US$2 trillion in value. The Dow Jones closed about 4% lower, while the Nasdaq tumbled roughly 6%. The US shares sell-off has been going on since mid-February amid trade war fears.

Britain’s FTSE 100 share index dropped 1.5% and other European markets also fell, echoing declines from Japan to Hong Kong.

On Thursday at the White House, Trump doubled down on a high-stakes gambit aimed at reversing decades of US-led liberalization that shaped the global trade order.

"I think it's going very well," he said. "It was an operation like when a patient gets operated on, and it's a big thing. I said this would exactly be the way it is."

He added, "The markets are going to boom. The stock is going to boom. The country is going to boom."

Contradicting White House aides who insisted the new tariffs were not a negotiating tactic, Trump signalled he might be open to a deal with trade partners "if somebody said we're going to give you something that's so phenomenal".

On Thursday, Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney said that country would retaliate with a 25% levy on vehicles imported from the US.

Trump last month imposed tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico, though he did not announce any new duties on Wednesday against the North American trade partners.

Firms now face a choice of swallowing the tariff cost, working with partners to share that burden, or passing it on to consumers — and risking a drop in sales.

That could have a major impact as US consumer spending amounts to about 10% to 15% of the world economy, according to some estimates.

While stocks fell on Thursday, the price of gold, which is seen as a safer asset in times of turbulence, touched a record high of US$3,167.57 an ounce at one point on Thursday, before falling back.

The dollar also weakened against many other currencies.

In Europe, the tariffs could drag down growth by nearly a percentage point, with a further hit if the bloc retaliates, according to analysts at Principal Asset Management.

In the US, a recession is likely to materialize without other changes, such as big tax cuts, which Trump has also promised, warned Seema Shah, chief global strategist at the firm. She said Trump's goals of boosting manufacturing would be a years-long process "if it happens at all".

"In the meantime, the steep tariffs on imports are likely to be an immediate drag on the economy, with limited short-term benefit," she said.

On Thursday, Stellantis, which makes Jeep, Fiat and other brands, said it was temporarily halting production at a factory in Toluca, Mexico and Windsor, Canada. It said the move, a response to Trump's 25% tax on car imports, would also lead to temporary layoffs of 900 people at five plants in the US that supply those factories.

Nike, which makes much of its sportswear in Asia, was among the hardest hit on the S&P, with shares down 14%. Shares in Apple, which relies heavily on China and Taiwan, tumbled 9%. Other retailers also fell, with Target down roughly 10%.

Motorbike maker Harley-Davidson – which was subject of retaliatory tariffs by the EU during Trump's first term as president – fell 10%.

In Europe, shares in sportswear firm Adidas fell more than 10%, while stocks in rival Puma tumbled more than 9%.

"You're seeing retailers get destroyed right now because tariffs extended to countries we did not expect," said Jay Woods, chief global strategy at Freedom Capital Markets, adding that he expected more turbulence ahead.

Nasdaq sees biggest one-day drop since 2022

US stocks plunged on Monday as relentless tariff wrangling and mounting anxieties from a possible federal government shutdown gave rise to fears that the US economy could be careening into recession.

The previous week's steep selloff resumed, gathering momentum as the session progressed, with all three major US indexes suffering sharp declines.

The S&P 500 had its biggest one-day drop since December 18 and the tech-loaded Nasdaq slid 4.0%, its biggest single-day percentage drop since September 2022.

The S&P 500, coming off of its biggest weekly percentage drop since September, is 8.6% below its record closing high reached less than a month ago.

On Thursday, the tech-loaded Nasdaq dipped more than 10% below its record closing high touched on December 19, confirming that it has been in a correction since then.

The bellwether S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average, a closely watched support level, for the first time since November 2023.

"It's a material drop for one day but we're seeing the normal sort of drawdown that you see in an upmarket," said Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at US Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis. "Concerns are mounting and investors are moving to the sidelines, but we haven't seen growth worries manifest in data yet."

On Sunday, Trump declined to comment on the negative market reaction to his on-again, off-again tariff actions against the biggest US trading partners, and whether anxieties related to his erratic policy shifts could nudge a softening economy into recession.

HSBC downgraded US stocks, citing uncertainty around tariffs.

A Reuters poll of economists reflected the growing risks of recession for the United States, Canada and Mexico.

Tech stocks are under pressure from a stronger Japanese yen and a spike in sovereign bond yields, as investors unwind yen carry trades on expectations of an upcoming interest rate hike in Japan.

The carry trades involve borrowing yen at a low cost to invest in other currencies and assets offering higher yields, and that unwinding is at least partially responsible for the selloff in tech stocks such as the "Magnificent 7" group of artificial intelligence-related megacaps.

 

 

Why no oil pipeline after Trans Mountain?

The Canadian energy sector has proposed several major oil pipeline projects in the last decade, but only the Trans Mountain expansion project was completed.

There are three other pipelines that never came to be:

Energy East

A proposed C$15.7 billion project (US$11.0 billion), Energy East would have carried oil cross-country from Alberta to the Atlantic province of New Brunswick. It was cancelled in 2017 by TC Energy in the face of regulatory hurdles and opposition from environmental groups, particularly in Quebec.

Northern Gateway

This pipeline was proposed by Enbridge in 2006 to carry oil from Alberta to British Columbia's northwest coast. The C$7.9 billion project (US$5.5 billion) faced opposition from local and Indigenous communities who feared the risk of a marine spill. The project died in 2016 after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government cancelled its permits.

Keystone XL

This proposed TC Energy project would have carried oil from the oilsands of northern Alberta to the major US crude storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma and then on to US Gulf Coast refineries. The project was rejected on environmental grounds by former US President Barack Obama's administration, then revived during President Donald Trump's first administration. Former President Joe Biden revoked the pipeline's permit on his first day in office in 2021.

TC Energy spun off its oil pipeline business in October last year into a new company named South Bow Energy. Trump said on Monday he wanted the pipeline built, but South Bow said it had moved on.

TC Energy has sought to recover more than US$15 billion from the US government for cancellation of the project

 

US exports 1.91 billion gallons ethanol in 2024

The United States exported 194.42 million gallons ethanol in December, taking export volumes for the full year 2024 to a record 1.91 billion gallons, according to data released by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service on February 05, 2025. Distillers grains exports were at 1.06 million metric tons in December, to a total 12.23 million metric tons for the full year.

The 194.42 million gallons of ethanol exported in December was up from both the 187.6 million gallons exported the previous month and the 155.4 million gallons exported in December 2023.

The US exported ethanol to approximately three dozen countries in December. Canada was the top destination for US ethanol exports at 62.82 million gallons, followed by the Netherlands at 32.07 million gallons and the Britain at 27.06 million gallons. 

The value of US ethanol exports reached US$421.66 million in December, up from both US$398.46 million in November and US$365.93 million in December of the previous year. 

Total US ethanol exports for 2024 reached 1.91 billion gallons at a value of US$4.31 billion, as compared to 1.4 billion gallons exported in 2023 at a value of US$3.81 billion. Canada was the top destination for US ethanol exports last year, at 674.6 million gallons, followed by the Britain at 243.84 million gallons and India at 187.03 million gallons.  

The 1.06 million metric tons of distillers grains exported in December was up from both the 946,804 metric tons exported the previous month and the 1.02 million metric tons exported in December 2023. 

The US exported distillers grains to nearly three dozen countries in December. Mexico was the top destination for US distillers grains exports at 195,409 metric tons, followed by Colombia at 118,765 metric tons and Vietnam at 104,626 metric tons. 

The value of US distillers grains exports was US$282.97 million in December, as compared to US$228.98 million in November and US$288.41 million in December of the previous year. 

Total US distillers grains exports for 2024 reached 12.23 million metric tons at a value of US$3.2 billion, as compared to 10.78 million metric tons exported in 2023 at a value of US$3.29 billion. Mexico was the top destination for US distillers grains exports last year at 2.54 million metric tons, followed by South Korea at 1.49 million metric tons and Vietnam at 1.02 million metric tons. 

 

New tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China

According to Saudi Gazette, US President Donald Trump will impose new tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China starting Saturday, marking a significant escalation in global trade tensions.

The tariffs will include a 25% duty on Mexican and Canadian imports and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods.

However, Trump stated on Friday that Canadian oil would face a reduced tariff of 10%, set to take effect on February 18.

Trump also signaled potential future tariffs on the European Union, accusing the bloc of unfair treatment toward the United States.

"These are promises made and promises kept by the President," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said, justifying the Mexico and Canada tariffs as a response to what she described as their role in the distribution of illegal fentanyl in the United States.

The president has frequently cited undocumented migration and trade imbalances with neighboring countries as key reasons for the tariffs.

During his campaign, Trump had threatened to impose tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese goods but has so far held off on immediate action, instead directing his administration to conduct further analysis.

US imports from China have remained flat since 2018, following a series of tariffs imposed during Trump’s first term.

However, concerns are mounting that renewed trade restrictions could trigger a wider trade conflict and drive up costs for American consumers.

In response to the tariffs, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau warned that Canada would retaliate if the US moves forward with the new levies.

"It's not what we want, but if he moves forward, we will also act," Trudeau said.

Both Canada and Mexico have indicated they will implement countermeasures while also working to reassure Washington that they are addressing US border concerns.

Chinese officials have also urged against protectionist measures, with Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang calling for a "win-win" approach to trade during a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos. While he did not mention the US by name, his comments underscored China's concerns about a renewed trade war under Trump's presidency.

The new tariffs come as the US relies heavily on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, which together accounted for 40% of all goods brought into the country last year. If tariffs on Canadian and Mexican oil imports are enforced, they could undermine Trump’s promise to lower the cost of living, potentially raising prices on fuel and consumer goods.

Trump acknowledged on Friday that tariffs could lead to short-term economic disruption, as costs are often passed along to businesses and consumers. 

Trump's America First to America Expands

The Hill reports, President-elect Trump’s imperialist tendencies ahead of his second term are begging a question that dominated his first term, should he be taken seriously, or literally?

Trump during a Tuesday press conference declined to rule out using military force to gain control of Greenland and the Panama Canal.

He said he would use economic force to merge the United States with Canada, shrugging off the border between the countries as an “artificial line.”

He threatened to tariff Denmark at “a very high level” if it did not relinquish control of Greenland, the autonomous territory home to valuable minerals.

As he spoke, Donald Trump Jr. was in Greenland where he was joined by influential conservative activist Charlie Kirk and two members of the incoming Trump administration - Sergio Gor, who will head the Presidential Personnel Office, and James Blair, who will serve as a deputy chief of staff.

Chris LaCivita, who co-managed the senior Trump’s 2024 campaign, quipped that the group amounted to a “Landing Team” in Greenland.

A source familiar said Trump Jr. did not meet with any Greenland government official and was there to film content for an upcoming podcast, but he posed for photos with Greenlanders clad in red “Make America Great Again” hats.

Trump has long used bombastic rhetoric as a negotiating and posturing tool, and the same is likely the case here, particularly when it comes to threats of military force. Greenland is an autonomous territory of Denmark, which is a NATO member. Using military force against a NATO member would create chaos and confusion among allies.

Annexing Canada as the 51st state is also unlikely to come to pass. But Trump’s constant belittling of the neighbor to the north is likely intended to bring Canadian leaders to heel as he threatens tariffs and seeks to renegotiate the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement that was brokered during Trump’s first term.

Trump’s rhetoric also has the benefit of giving fodder to his supporters, who have embraced his view of American exceptionalism and dominance abroad and relish seeing liberals overreact to what the president-elect is saying.

It was in that spirit that Trump declared Tuesday that he would soon seek to rename the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America.”

Numerous Trump allies cheered the idea on social media — “I am SO HERE FOR THIS,” former Rep. Matt Gaetz wrote — and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene quickly announced she would introduce legislation to make the change official on government maps.

The idea of an imperialist second Trump term has ruffled feathers abroad.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Tuesday that Greenland “is not for sale and will not be in the future either.”

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Tuesday there “isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States.”

His potential replacement, Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre, has said Canada “will never be the 51st state of the US”

Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino previously rejected Trump’s suggestion of the U.S. taking over the canal, which was built in the early 1900s and handed over to Panama as part of a 1977 treaty.

But Trump has not been one to take kindly to public rejection or embarrassment from other world leaders, and the pushback could only embolden him to inflict economic pain on those leaders.

Kirk, responding to Trudeau on social media, wrote to the Canadian prime minister: “When you’re playing defense, you’re already losing!”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trump proposes US-Canada merger

According to The Hill, President-elect Trump on Monday raised the idea of a ‘merged’ United States and Canada after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation.

Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social site that, if both nations were to become one, "there would no Tariffs" and that "taxes would go way down."

He also said Canada would be "Totally Secure” from the threat of the Russian and Chinese Ships that are constantly surrounding them," and argued many Canadians would "Love" the idea of being the “51st State” of the United States.

Trump added that the merger would be beneficial for the US, because it would “no longer suffer” from “massive Trade Deficits” and subsidies that it provides to Canada.

Trudeau, who has served as Canada’s prime minister for nine years, announced Monday that he would be resigning before general elections later this year.

His Liberal Party, which Trudeau has led for 11 years, is polling poorly, and the leader has faced mounting crises, including the resignation of a top minister and a confrontation with Trump’s 25 percent tariff plan, among other issues.

 

How would WTO brace Donald Trump?

The World Trade Organization (WTO) held the last of its 2024 meetings this week, and for anyone rooting for the institution to conclude long-discussed agreements just ahead of its 30th anniversary, the results were a little hard to watch. Here’s a recap of what came out of gatherings of the WTO’s General Council and its Dispute Settlement Body.

Here’s a recap of what came out of gatherings of the WTO’s General Council and its Dispute Settlement Body:

·        Dispute settlement reform was unresolved and there was a pledge to continue talking next year

·        On the second fisheries agreement, India and Indonesia were granted more time to air their concerns. “Fish 2” was at the decision stage but was demoted to a “discussion” item

·        India, South Africa and Turkey blocked a deal known as Investment Facilitation for Development. That left it short of the needed consensus, even though 126 members backed its incorporation into WTO bylaws

·        Progress was made on two administrative issues: picking dates for the next ministerial conference (March 26-29, 2026, in Cameroon) and approval of WTO Secretariat pension reforms

Newly re-appointed Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala tried to maintain a positive outlook, saying she hopes members return in the new year with a “spirit of compromise, ready to do deals.”

For an organization that needs everyone to agree, that’s going to be a challenge when US President-elect Donald Trump takes office January 20, 2025. His threatened tariffs and “America First” trade agenda run counter to the mission of the Geneva based WTO.

Trump promised 60% duties on Chinese imports and at least 10% for the rest of the world. In November, he threatened to impose further 10% tariffs on Beijing and 25% on Mexico and Canada if they fail to stop the flow of fentanyl and undocumented migrants to the US.

All of that violates the commitments that more than 160 nations make to join the WTO, said Bill Reinsch, a Commerce Department official during the Clinton administration and now a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Trump is known to dislike multilateral institutions, having withdrawn the US from a trade deal for the Indo-Pacific, the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization in his first term.

He could quit the WTO, too. Or he could stay in it, heap more scorn on the rules-based international order and ignore other countries complaining about Washington’s protectionism.

In Trump’s first term, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer watched the WTO’s appellate body grind to a standstill by preventing the appointment of new judges as terms expired, leaving it short of the number needed to function.

This week Biden administration delegates blocked a move by 130 WTO member countries that called for a restart of the process to fill vacancies on the appellate body — the 82nd time that that proposal failed.

The outlook for the WTO to free itself of paralysis under the incoming Trump administration isn’t favorable. 

Jamieson Greer, Trump’s nominee for USTR, was a close adviser to Lighthizer. His views on WTO relevancy are unclear, but he did say in testimony in May that “efforts to hold China accountable under WTO dispute mechanisms were largely unfruitful.”

The WTO also irked some Trump allies by accelerating the process this year of approving Okonjo-Iweala for another four-year term at its helm.

That was “almost certainly designed to prevent the incoming Trump administration from having a say in the matter,” said Dennis Shea, Trump’s ambassador to the WTO in his first term.

“The WTO already has diminished reputation in the United States,” he said. “This unprecedented action only diminishes it further.”

According to a Geneva-based trade source, Trump’s name wasn’t mentioned during this week’s General Council session.

Courtesy: Bloomberg

Trump tariffs could impact US tanker trades

US President-elect, Donald Trump, has threatened to slap 25% tariffs on neighbours, Canada and Mexico, until such time as the flow of drugs and migrants stops. Since Canada to the north and Mexico to the south both supply large volumes of crude oil to US markets, there are far-reaching implications for the North American energy market.

Analysis by London shipbroker, Gibson, notes that Canada’s exports to the US of more than four million barrels of heavy crude a day move mostly through pipelines and would therefore be difficult to redirect.

About three quarters of the Canadian crude goes to the midcontinent region of the US, Gibson said, where refineries are geared up for these heavy grades. There is no ready alternative source of crude oil and refiners would have few options but to pay the tariff and pass the cost on to consumers, or cut refinery runs.

If Trump were to proceed with the tariffs, Canadian oil producers would have few options for other markets, Gibson said.

The Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline, opened in May, has doubled Canadian seaborne exports but spare capacity is limited.

About 175,000 barrels a day of TMX crude that currently goes to the US west coast could be redirected to Asia but these barrels would have to be replaced with supplies from Latin America or the Middle East, driving up ton-mile demand.

For Mexico, the situation is less complex, Gibson said. All of that country’s exports move by sea and European and Asian refiners could take up more Mexican oil if US demand fell.

This would boost ton-mile demand and could generate more business for larger tankers on long hauls. However, Gibson warned that vessels currently ballasting from east of Suez Canal to the US Gulf might well ship these cargoes, lessening the impact.

The shipbroker concludes that it is difficult to see the tariffs being enacted in their present form because they would raise costs for US consumers.

The broker notes that the President-elect has used tariffs as a negotiating ploy in the past.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau dined with Trump at his Mar a Lago estate on Friday evening. The two men were said to have had a productive meeting and an ‘excellent conversation’.

Courtesy: Seatrade Maritimes News

Implications of US energy dominance

President-elect Donald Trump is set to create a National Energy Council that he says will establish American “energy dominance” around the world as he seeks to boost US oil and gas drilling and move away from President Joe Biden’s focus on climate change.

The energy council — to be led by North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, Trump’s choice to head the Interior Department — will be key in Trump’s pledge to “drill, drill, drill” and sell more oil and other energy sources to allies in Europe and around the globe.

The new council will be granted sweeping authority over federal agencies involved in energy permitting, production, generation, distribution, regulation and transportation, with a mandate to cut bureaucratic red tape, enhance private sector investments and focus on innovation instead of “totally unnecessary regulation,” Trump said.

But the president-elect’s energy wishes are likely to run into real-world limits. For one, U. oil production under Biden is already at record levels. The federal government cannot force companies to drill for more oil, and production increases could lower prices and reduce profits.

A call for energy dominance — a term Trump also used in his first term as president — “is an opportunity, not a requirement,’' for the oil industry to move forward on drilling projects under terms that are likely to be more favorable to industry than those offered by Biden, said energy analyst Kevin Book.

Whether Trump achieves energy dominance — however he defines it — “comes down to decisions by private companies, based on how they see supply-demand balances in the global marketplace,’' said Book, managing partner at ClearView Energy Partners, a Washington research firm. Don’t expect an immediate influx of new oil rigs dotting the national landscape, he said.

Trump’s bid to boost oil supplies — and lower U.S. prices — is complicated by his threat this week to impose 25% import tariffs on Canada and Mexico, two of the largest sources of US oil imports. The oil industry warned the tariffs could raise prices and even harm national security.

“Canada and Mexico are our top energy trading partners, and maintaining the free flow of energy products across our borders is critical for North American energy security and US consumers,” said Scott Lauermann, speaking for the American Petroleum Institute, the oil industry’s top lobbying group.

American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, which represents U.S. refineries, also opposes potential tariffs, saying in a statement that “American refiners depend on crude oil from Canada and Mexico to produce the affordable, reliable fuels consumers count on every day.”

Scott Segal, a former Bush administration official, said the idea of centering energy decisions at the White House follows an example set by Biden, who named a trio of White House advisers to lead on climate policy. Segal, a partner at the law and policy law firm Bracewell, called Burgum “a steady hand on the tiller” with experience in fossil fuels and renewables.

And unlike Biden’s climate advisers — Gina McCarthy, John Podesta and Ali Zaidi — Burgum will probably take his White House post as a Senate-confirmed Cabinet member, Segal said.

Dustin Meyer, senior vice president of policy, economics and regulatory affairs at the American Petroleum Institute, called the new energy council “a good thing” for the US economy and trade. “Conceptually it makes a lot of sense to have as much coordination as possible,” he said.

Still, “market dynamics will always be the key’’ for any potential increase in energy production, Meyer said.

Jonathan Elkind, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, called energy dominance a “deliberately vague concept,” but said, “It’s hard to see how (Trump) can push more oil into an already saturated market.”

Trump has promised to bring gasoline prices below US$2 a gallon, but experts call that highly unlikely, since crude oil prices would need to drop dramatically to achieve that goal. Gas prices averaged US$3.07 nationally as of Wednesday, down from US$3.25 a year ago.

Elkind and other experts said they hope the new energy council will move beyond oil to focus on renewable energy such as wind, solar and geothermal power, as well as nuclear. None of those energy resources produces greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change.

“Failure to focus on climate change as an existential threat to our planet is a huge concern and translates to a very significant loss of American property and American lives,’' said Elkind, a former assistant energy secretary in the Obama administration. He cited federal statistics showing two dozen weather disasters this year that caused more than US$1 billion in damage each. A total of 418 people were killed.

Trump has played down risks from climate change and pledged to rescind unspent money in the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden’s landmark climate and health care bill. He also said he will stop offshore wind development when he returns to the White House in January.

Even so, his Nov. 15 announcement of the energy council says he will “expand ALL forms of energy production to grow our Economy and create good-paying jobs.”

That includes renewables, said Safak Yucel, associate professor at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.

“The mandate for the energy council is US dominance globally, but what’s more American than American solar and American wind?’' he asked. A report from Ernst & Young last year showed that solar was the cheapest source of new-build electricity in many markets.

Trump, in his statement, said he wants to dramatically increase baseload power to lower electricity costs, avoid brownouts and “WIN the battle for AI superiority.”

In comments to reporters before he was named to the energy post, Burgum cited a similar goal, noting increased demand for electricity from artificial intelligence, commonly known as AI, and fast-growing data centers. “The AI battle affects everything from defense to health care to education to productivity as a country, ″ Burgum said.

While Trump mocks the climate law as the “green new scam,” he is unlikely to repeal it, Yucel and other experts said. One reason: Most of its investments and jobs are in Republican congressional districts. GOP members of Congress have urged House Speaker Mike Johnson to retain the law, which passed with only Democratic votes.

“A lot of Southern states are telling Trump, ‘We actually like renewables,’” Yucel said, noting that Republican-led states have added thousands of jobs in recent years in wind, solar and battery power.

If renewables make economic sense, he added, “they’ll continue.’'

 Courtesy: Associated Press

Canada declares IRGC a terrorist group

Canada has listed Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, after years of pressure from opposition legislators and some members of the Iranian diaspora.

Announcing the decision on Wednesday, Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc called it a “significant tool in fighting global terrorism”.

The move will mean that thousands of senior Iranian government officials, including top IRGC officials, will be barred from entering Canada.

The IRGC is a major military, political and economic force in Iran, with close ties to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

It is estimated to have more than 190,000 active personnel with its own ground forces, navy and air force that oversee Iran’s strategic weapons.

The IRGC exerts influence elsewhere in the Middle East by providing money, weapons, technology, training and advice to allied governments and armed groups through its shadowy overseas operations arm, the Quds (Jerusalem) Force, according to the government.

The Quds Force was already listed as a terrorist group by Canada, but Wednesday’s announcement extends the designation to the entire IRGC.

Speaking to reporters, LeBlanc said the action “sends a strong message that Canada will use all of the tools at its disposal to combat the terrorist entity of the IRGC".

“The Iranian regime has consistently displayed disregard for human rights, both inside and outside of Iran as well as a willingness to destabilize the international rules-based order,” he said.

After this designation, current and former senior Iranian government officials already in Canada may also now be investigated and removed.
Canada's foreign affairs minister, Melanie Joly, warned that Canadians in Iran could be at risk of arbitrary detention following the announcement. “My message is clear for those who are in Iran right now, it’s time to come back home,” she said. “And for those who are planning to go to Iran, don’t go.”

The Canadian government under the leadership of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had previously declined to extend the terrorism designation to the IRGC, despite pressure from some diaspora members — including the families of those who died after Flight PS752 was shot down by the IRGC in January 2020 in Tehran.

All 175 passengers onboard the plane were killed, including 55 Canadian citizens and 30 permanent residents of Canada.

Tehran had claimed that the missile strike on the plane was done by mistake.

Trudeau had previously said in 2022 that he feared a terrorism designation would unfairly target Iranians in Canada who opposed the regime and fled, but had to serve in the IRGC in the past.
Asked why now by reporters, LeBlanc said the decision to designate a group as a terrorist entity is a “deliberative process” made on advice of security services and with foreign policy considerations.

“It is a threshold that must be met under the criminal code of Canada,” he said.

The move makes Canada the second country in North America after the US to label the IRGC as a terrorist organization, which did so in 2019. The UK had previously indicated its intent to make a similar move as recently as 2023, but has yet to do so. 

Iran Oil Show 2024 opens today

Despite all the propaganda against Iran oil industry's international successes and its energy diplomacy approach, the growing number of foreign oil companies’ presence at the 28th Oil Show is a clear sign of rising trust in Iran’s oil industry.

Director of the 28th Iran International Oil, Gas, Refining and Petrochemical Exhibition, known as Iran’s Oil Show 2024, Gholamreza Jamali, made the remarks during a press conference on May 06 in Tehran adding the exhibition opens its doors to the public on May 08.

Jamali said that 1750 oil industry related companies, including 250 foreign companies from 12 countries including Russia, China, Germany, France, Japan, Belarus, India, Canada, Italy, Turkey, Austria and Argentina shows that Iran’s oil show is not only one of the largest oil exhibitions at home but also in the West Asia region.

The great achievements of Iran’s oil industry over the last two years, is due to the support of the Minister of Petroleum, Jamali said at the press conference.

A number of companies failed to take part in this year’s oil exhibition mainly due to lack of appropriate infrastructures expressing hope improvement in the facilities to provide proper conditions for participation of all companies in the next rounds of oil exhibitions.

Elsewhere in his remarks he said, a number of world high-ranking officials have been invited to participate at the opening ceremony of the exhibition.

According to him, while during last year’s oil exhibition, just 2 thousand square meters had been allocated to accommodate foreign companies, this space has been expanded this year so that the foreign companies’ exclusive space reaches 5 thousand square meters.

 As far as it concerns allocating spaces, the organizers have decided to pay attention to the arrangement based on upstream, midstream and downstream activities and the halls and booths locations are somehow related to the subject of value chain in the oil industry

In order to support the technological innovations in the oil industry, an especial space has been allocated to the knowledge-based companies, technological companies, universities and start-ups, he also said.

Pointing out that numerous side events that will be held on the sidelines of the exhibition, the director of the Tehran Oil Show 2024 announced that many of these events would lead to the signing of contracts and memorandums of understanding in the oil industry, resulting in boosting production with economic results.

Jamali noted that providing appropriate conditions for direct connection between private and public sector activists is one of the main functions of the oil exhibition every year, which often faces some obstacles over the year due to the existence of administrative bureaucracy.

Announcing the slogan of this year's oil exhibition as "Oil industry, production leap, technological optimization", he said, "At this year’s exhibition we will reveal some equipment for the first time which is very important in view of meeting domestic needs and exporting to other countries."

The International Oil, Gas, Refining and Petrochemical Exhibition as the main and most important oil event in Iran is held annually by the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) with the support of the Petroleum Ministry.

The Petroleum Ministry’s subsidiaries including the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC), the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC) and the National Petrochemical Company (NPC) have an active presence in the event.

Iran Oil Show 2024 is being held from May 08 to May 11 at Tehran International Permanent Fairground.

Iran denounces new sanctions

The Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Nasser Kanaani has refuted the charges made against Tehran in a recent resolution passed by the European Parliament, and denounced the new sanctions that the United States, Britain and Canada have placed on a number of Iranian citizens and firms.

The spokesperson also attacked several European nations for adhering to the harsh policies of the US administration by criticizing the European Parliament's decision against Iran.

He emphasized that Iran’s military capabilities are built in accordance with its needs to preserve territorial integrity and sovereignty, defend national security and interests, and provide a legitimate and deterrent defense against external threats and acts of aggression.

According to Kanaani, “The Islamic Republic of Iran is a major partner of the international community in providing peace and security to the region and the world, as well as in the fight against international terrorism.”

Imposing the sanctions, he said, the sanctions against Iran’s defense sector will actually present a chance to advance the nation’s military and defense capabilities and self-sufficiency, rather than weakening its resolve to strengthen its defense of its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national interests.

“Many nations and governments, specifically in the West Asia region, hold out no hope of the role of the US and its European allies in the establishment of stability and security in the region anymore,” the spokesman continued. 

His remarks followed the announcement of further sanctions against Iran on Thursday by the US, Britain, and Canada in response to its retaliatory strike against Israeli military targets on April 13.

The three states said that they will punish people and companies “closely involved” in Iran’s drone manufacture in order to target the country’s drone and missile sectors.

By a vote of 357 to 20, the European Parliament on Thursday passed a resolution denouncing Iran’s use of drones and missiles against the Israeli regime and urging the imposition of more penalties on Iranian organizations.

The Treasury Department and the State Department said on Tuesday that the United States government has imposed charges and penalties on four Iranian nationals in connection with an alleged multi-year cyber operation that targeted over a dozen American firms.

The Treasury Department issued sanctions on two firms, Dadeh Afzar Arman and Mehrsam Andisheh Saz Nik, which it claimed employed the individual defendants and served as front organizations for Iran’s Revolution Guards cyber command.

The business targets, according to federal prosecutors in Manhattan, were mostly defense contractors with access to confidential data; other targets included an accountancy firm and a hotel company located in New York. 

“These actors targeted more than a dozen US companies and government entities through cyber operations, including spear phishing and malware attacks,” the US Treasury Department said in a statement.

The defendants, according to the prosecution, used spearfishing—a tactic that entails deceiving email recipients into clicking on harmful links—and impersonating women to win over people’s trust in order to infect computers with malware.

The Israeli airstrike, which took place in Damascus’s Mezzeh district, resulted in the deaths of seven military advisors from the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC). Iranian officials have vowed a decisive response to what they described as a violation of international obligations and conventions.

Zahra Ershadi, Iran’s deputy permanent representative to the UN, told the 15-member Security Council that Iran reserves the right "to take a decisive response" to the attack, saying Israel violated the founding UN Charter, international law, and the inviolability of diplomatic and consular premises.

Israel’s crime clearly breached the basic principles of diplomatic and consular immunity, as well as the 1961 Convention on Diplomatic Relations, the 1963 Vienna Convention on Consular Relations, and the 1973 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of Crimes, the diplomat stated.

 

Who Supply Israel Murder Weapons?

Over 9,000 Palestinian women have been killed since the start of the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip. Mothers have been the largest share of Israeli killings, at an average of 37 mothers per day since October 07, 2023.

The numbers above, from the Palestinian Health Ministry in Gaza and the Red Crescent Society respectively, only convey part of the suffering experienced by 2.3 million Palestinians in the Strip.

There is not a single section in Palestinian society that has not paid a heavy price for the war, although women and children are the ones who have suffered most, constituting over 70% of all victims of the ongoing Israeli genocide.

These women and their children are killed at the hands of Israeli soldiers, but they are murdered with US-western supplied weapons.

We are told that the world is finally turning against Israel, and that the west’s nod of approval to Tel Aviv to carry on with its daily massacres may soon turn into a collective snub.

This claim was expressed best in the March 23 cover of the Economist magazine. It showed a tattered Israeli flag, attached to a stick, and planted in an arid, dusty land. It was accompanied by the headline “Israel Alone”.

The image, undoubtedly expressive, was meant to serve as a sign of the times.

Its profundity becomes even more obvious if compared to another cover, from the same publication soon after the Israeli military conquered massive Arab territories in the war of June 1967. “They did it,” the headline, back then, read. In the background, an Israeli military tank was pictured, illustrating the west-funded Israeli triumph.

Between the two headlines much, in the world and in the Middle East, has changed. But to claim that Israel now stands alone is not entirely accurate, at least not yet.

Though many of Israel’s traditional allies in the west openly disown its behavior in Gaza, weapons from various western and non-western countries continue to flow, feeding the war machine as it, in turn, continues to harvest more Palestinian lives.

Does Israel truly stand alone when its airports and seaports are busier than ever receiving massive shipments of weapons coming from all directions?

Almost every time a western country announces that it has suspended arms exports to Israel, a news headline appears shortly afterwards, indicating the opposite. Indeed, this has happened repeatedly.

Last year, Rome had declared that it was blocking all arms sales to Israel, giving false hope that some western countries are finally experiencing some kind of moral awakening.

Alas, on March 14, Reuters quoted the Italian Defense Minister, Guido Crosetto as saying that shipments of weapons to Israel are continuing, based on the flimsy logic that previously signed deals would have to be ‘honored’.

Another country that is also ‘honoring’ its previous commitments is Canada, which announced on May 19, following a parliamentary motion that it had suspended arms exports.

The celebration among those advocating an end to the genocide in Gaza were just getting started when, a day later, Ottawa practically reversed the decision by announcing that it, too, will honor previous commitments.

This illustrates that some western countries, which continue to impart their unsolicited wisdom about human rights, women’s rights and democracy on the rest of the world, have no genuine respect for any of these values.

Canada and Italy are not the largest military supporters of Israel. The US and Germany are. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, in the decade between 2013 and 2022, Israel has received 68% of its weapons from the US and 28% from Germany.

The Germans remain unperturbed, even though 5% of the total population of Gaza has been killed, wounded or are missing due to the Israeli war.

Yet, the American support for Israel is far greater, although the Biden Administration is still sending messages to its constituency – majority of whom want the war to stop – that the president is doing his best to pressure Israel to end the war.

Though only two approved military sales to Israel have been announced publicly since October 07, the two shipments represent only 2% from the total US arms sent to Israel.

The news was revealed by the Washington Post on March 06. It was published at a time when US media was reporting on a widening rift between US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“That’s an extraordinary number of sales over the course of a pretty short amount of time,” a former senior Biden Administration official told the Post. Jeremy Konyndyk reached the obvious conclusion that the “Israeli campaign would not be sustainable without this level of US support”.

For decades, the US military support to Israel has been the highest anywhere in the world. Starting 2016, this unconditional support exponentially increased during the Obama Administration to reach US$3.8 billion per year.

Immediately after October 07, the weapons shipments to Israel reached unprecedented levels. They included a 2,000-pound bomb known as 5,000 MK-84 munitions. Israel has used this bomb to kill hundreds of innocent Palestinians.

Though Washington frequently alleges to be looking into Israel’s use of its weapons, it turned out, according to the Washington Post, that Biden knew too well that Israel was regularly bombing buildings without solid intelligence that they were legitimate military targets”.

In some ways, Israel ‘stands alone’, but only because its behavior is rejected by most countries and peoples around the world. However, it is hardly alone when its war crimes are being executed with western support and arms.

For the Israeli genocide in Gaza to end, those who continue to sustain the ongoing bloodbath must also be held accountable.

 

Canadian allegations against India put United States in a pinch

The United States is caught in the middle of a diplomatic war between India and Canada, after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s allegations that Indian agents were behind the killing of a Sikh Separatist leader in the country.

The explosive allegation comes amid the Biden administration’s charm offensive toward India as a key bulwark against China, with many questioning the US relationship with India’s controversial Prime Minister, Narendra Modi.

The US reportedly worked closely with Canada in investigating the apparent murder on its soil. President Biden has not publicly commented on the allegations, highlighting the tricky balancing act of standing by Canada without alienating India.

All eyes are now on whether Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will present evidence to support his claims and just how bad relations between Ottawa and New Delhi will get before the US is forced to step in.

Since Trudeau’s public allegations against India on Tuesday, relations between the two countries have hit rock bottom. Canada has received no public support from its allies backing up the claim. 

Vivek Dehejia, professor of economics and an India-Canada policy expert at Carleton University in Ottawa, told The Hill that Canadian officials and Trudeau assumed they would get unconditional support from their allies and from the US in particular. 

“They have been disappointed by the level of support that they have received. If you look carefully at National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan’s recent comments, he’s walking a tightrope because Canada’s very dramatic allegations have put the US and other NATO allies in a bind,” he added.

On Thursday, Sullivan offered a vague statement in support of Canada’s undertaking in this investigation and said the US has also been in touch with Indian government.  

“It is a matter of concern for us. It is something we take seriously. It is something we will keep working on, and we will do that regardless of the country,” he told reporters at the White House on Thursday.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US was coordinating with Canada on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on Friday, and called for India to cooperate in the ongoing probe.

“We want to see accountability. And it’s important that the investigation run its course and lead to that result,” Blinken told reporters in New York.

The Washington Post reported earlier this week that several senior officials of Canada’s Five Eyes allies, of which the US is a member, were informed of the allegations ahead of the G20 summit in New Delhi. Nevertheless, no public comment was made by any senior leaders among the group’s members, which also include the UK, Australia and New Zealand.

According to Sadanand Dhume, a senior fellow at the Washington, DC-based American Enterprise Institute, the Biden administration has no intention of sacrificing its relationship with India over an ill-judged accusation by Trudeau.

Biden has made closer ties with India a foreign policy priority in its efforts to counter China’s influence in Asia, inviting Modi for an official state visit in June, when he also addressed Congress. 

That was the same month that masked gunmen killed Hardeep Singh Nijjar outside a Sikh temple in Vancouver. The 45-year-old separatist leader had previously been designated as a terrorist by India. 

India has long maintained that Canada has turned a blind eye toward extremist elements against India, especially Khalistani secessionists who demand a separate homeland for Sikh in the Punjab region. 

“The fact is that the Canadians have allowed some pretty dodgy people to use Canadian soil and to spread violent messages,” Dhume said.

“It’s not as though there’s deep sympathy for Canada given that Trudeau has not handled this really well. He’s really been forced into a corner here.”

Trudeau has also come under scathing criticism from some former officials back home. 

Omer Aziz, a former foreign policy advisor for Trudeau’s administration in Canada, wrote in The Globe and Mail that Ottawa’s foreign policy initiatives have never understood South Asia or India, but were instead aimed at winning over the sizable ethnic Sikh vote at home. 

“Under Trudeau, the foreign policy choices have been subordinated to domestic diaspora politics, given the importance of the Sikh diaspora in Canada, which have been important liberal voters. Trudeau, who has a minority in Canadian parliament, is only in power because of the New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh,” Dehejia told The Hill.

Singh is the first Sikh to lead a major federal party in Canada, and helped Trudeau form a minority government last year after the Liberals failed to win a majority in parliament. 

In New Delhi, the Canadian allegations have united a fractious political landscape. 

“The Indian response has been ferocious, and it’s been uniform,” said Dhume, adding that it has dredged up memories of the assassination of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in 1984 and Air India bombing the next year, both of which were linked to Sikh separatists. 

Even Modi’s main opposition, the Indian National Congress has backed his government’s stance on Trudeau and Canada in a rare show of unity. 

“The Congress reiterates that the country’s fight against terrorism has to be uncompromising, especially when it threatens India’s sovereignty, unity and integrity,” it said in a statement.

Pressure is now on Trudeau to reveal how Canada obtained the intelligence that led it to so publicly suggest the Indian government was behind the killing. 

The prime minister doubled down on his claims Thursday, again saying Canada had credible reasons to believe that agents of the government of India were involved in the killing of a Canadian on Canadian soil.

Canada may not be in a position to reveal where it got the information, Dhume said, but the Indian view is that if you’re not in a position to corroborate … then don’t make the allegation in public.

Yet ultimately it may depend on the US to settle the growing feud, which has resulted in India halting new visas for Canadians and expelling a Canadian diplomat. 

“Only the US has the ability to solve this as only they have both trust and influence in both Ottawa and New Delhi,” Dhume added. 

 

 

 

 

 

Fallout from Canada-India clash

Canada-India relations are reeling from the announcement that Canadian security agencies had uncovered evidence linking the Indian government to the assassination of an Indian-born Canadian citizen in British Columbia earlier this year. Canada Institute Associate Xavier Delgado outlines what's at stake for both countries and their allies in the Indo-Pacific.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canadian security agencies have obtained credible evidence linking the Indian government to the unsolved murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian citizen and notable advocate for Sikh separatism. 

Nijjar was shot by two masked assailants outside a Sikh temple in British Columbia earlier this year in an attack that Canada alleges has since been connected to agents of India.

The Indian foreign ministry decried the allegations as absurd and, in the aftermath of the announcement, exchanged tit-for-tat expulsions of senior diplomats from Ottawa and New Delhi.

The dispute has shined a sudden spotlight on the Canada-India relationship, which, prior to the Nijjar incident, had been trending in a positive direction. Geopolitical developments, economic ties, and demographic trends over the past ten years had set the stage for closer cooperation between the two former British colonies. India’s prominence in Canada’s 2022 Indo-Pacific Strategy and high-level negotiations between the two states for an early progress trade agreement (EPTA) gave supporters of the relationship plenty of reasons to be optimistic.

Now, the allegations that the Indian government orchestrated the assassination of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil have cast a cloud of doubt over the path ahead for the bilateral relationship.

Trade will likely be the first major casualty of the fallout, with negotiations for the EPTA being put on hold. Both countries declared that they would pause trade talks with each other earlier this month and Canadian Trade Minister Mary Ng has indefinitely postponed a trade mission to New Delhi that had been planned for October. The negotiations were a notable part of Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, which listed the EPTA as a critical step towards a larger comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA) that would bolster trade ties between the two countries.

The stalled trade talks have put a US$17 billion bilateral trade relationship under strain. Canadian merchandise trade with India grew from approximately US$3.87 billion in 2012 to US$10.18 billion in 2022, with major increases in the export of Canadian energy products and import of Indian consumer goods. In that same year, services trade between the two countries measured US$6.96 billion. 

A reduction in the flow of Indian immigrants, which constitute almost one in five of all recent immigrants to Canada, could be even more devastating than a deterioration of trade relations.

Canada recently reached the 40-million-population milestone off an influx in inbound migration following the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, Canada’s population growth, which is the fastest in the G7, is mainly driven by migration ‑ four in five new Canadians from 2016 to 2021 were immigrants. 

Indian immigration to Canada has tripled since 2013, overtaking and pulling away from the Philippines and China as the top source country for new Canadians in the 2021 census.

That census also counted 1.3 million ethnic Indians living in Canada, over 1 million of whom resided in British Columbia or Ontario. 77% of that group – 771,790 people – follow Sikhism, making Canada’s Sikh population the largest in the world outside of India. 

India also tops a notable subcategory of immigration ‑ international students, 34% of international students in Canada from 2015 to 2019 came from India, providing a critical source of revenue for Canadian academic institutions; by 2022, that share had grown to 40%. These numbers directly translate to the labor force, with Indian graduates from Canadian programs accounting for the largest share of post-graduate work permit holders in 2018 over China (20%) and the United States (1%).

Beyond the bounds of Canada-India relations, the dispute between the two countries may throw a wrench in the emerging Indo-Pacific framework of institutions and alliances.

India, with its economic might and security capabilities, has been hailed by the United States and democratic allies as a regional counterweight to China. Washington included India as a founding member of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and the freshly-anointed I2U2 bloc with Israel and the United Arab Emirates.

Both countries are also founding members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD or Quad), a strategic security dialogue that includes Japan and Australia.

Canada, for its part, was not invited to join the Quad or IPEF at the conception of either group, nor was it included alongside Five Eyes allies Australia and the United Kingdom in the AUKUS security pact. After inviting Canada to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership during the Obama administration, the United States opted to not join the agreement, leaving both countries without a shared major economic or security institution in the Indo-Pacific. 

A chilling of relations with India could hinder Canada’s ability to join the network of Indo-Pacific institutions, both because regional allies will be wary of angering the Modi government and because India itself could block Canadian membership in certain groups.

Ottawa is clearly aware of India’s influence and power in the region. The Canadian Indo-Pacific strategy, published in late 2022, has an entire section dedicated to India that reads, “India’s strategic importance and leadership – both across the region and globally – will only increase as India – the world’s biggest democracy – becomes the most populous country in the world and continues to grow its economy.”

Canada is not the only party that stands to lose from this dispute. The allegations can damage India’s public image as a democratic nation committed to a rules-based order or, more critically, its perception as a trustworthy ally in the competition against China. Canada’s Five Eyes partners could reevaluate intelligence sharing and law enforcement cooperation with India if Canadian officials uncover definitive proof of India’s involvement in Nijjar’s murder. 

Disputes between allies are common and, in the diverse roster of countries that constitute the emerging Indo-Pacific architecture, should be expected. Governments disagree frequently over trade policies, environmental practices, and other issues that don’t pose a threat to their diplomatic relationships.

The Canada-India dispute is unique in that the severity of the allegations, the economic and demographic ties between the two countries, and the geopolitical context in which the situation unfolded have raised the stakes for all parties, including the United States.

To prevent spillover damage to the nascent Indo-Pacific alliances, Washington will need to approach the situation carefully. Beijing benefits the most from in-fighting between major US allies, but regardless of how the coming weeks play out, both Canada and India will still have poor relations with China and good relations with the United States. One reason for this is the values that all three countries nominally share. US leaders should remember this and remind Ottawa and New Delhi that the path forward must be paved by justice and a commitment to due process to deviate from those values would be to bring relations between all three countries into uncharted and volatile territory.