The gyrations of Israel’s coalition government, which still
hopes to survive to its first anniversary on June 13, only make sense in its
unique context. On Monday, June 6 it lost an important vote, in which more than
half of the Knesset members on both sides voted against their own most
fundamental beliefs.
It can be termed a desperate effort to either bring down the coalition or
to save it. The substance of the legislation was barely more than a pretext,
but the opposition smelled blood and was willing to do virtually anything to
regain power.
The legislation at issue was a routine bill to maintain
Israel’s jurisdiction over the West Bank for another five years, in order to
ensure that the half-million Israelis who live there are treated as if they
live within the “Green Line,” Israel’s pre-1967 borders. Though, much of the
Knesset — including Prime Minister Naftali Bennett — would very much like to
permanently annex part or all of the West Bank that is not on the agenda for
this government. The bedrock principle is to maintain the status quo with
regard to the West Bank and the Palestinians. A fundamental aspect of this
policy is the perpetuation of a military regime for West Bank Palestinians and
an ordinary life for Israelis living there — and thus the legislation extending
it for five more years has always passed with ease.
It’s not that the majority of the MKs disagreed with the
legislation. Probably between 80 and 100 of them would have supported it in a
free vote, out of the total of 120. However, politics in Israel are now
decisively split between supporters and opponents of former Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu, which takes precedence even over the left-right divide.
That is the only reason why the current government,
unprecedentedly, contains far and mainstream rightists, centrists, leftists,
and an Arab party, many of whom would be politically more comfortable with the
opposition were it not for the divisive figure of Netanyahu, whose Likud Party
and its allies, with a total of 60 members in the evenly divided Knesset, are
determined to prove the country ungovernable under the current coalition. The
chaos that would theoretically ensue if this legislation isn’t passed, even
though they themselves are unashamedly holding it up, is, for them, a perfect
example of the government’s inability to accomplish anything.
In fact, it is unlikely that Israeli settlers would spend
even one day under the military regime that governs their Palestinian
neighbors. They are an important enough constituency that a workaround will
probably be found, one way or another. But the process would be chaotic enough
that the government’s image, already tarnished, would suffer another heavy
blow.
It is not only the right, however, that voted against its
basic values. Even more distressed was the left-wing minority in the coalition
from the Meretz and Labor parties, whose main political banner is fighting
against the occupation. They are ardently against privileges for the settlers,
yet cold calculation tells them that anything outside of this coalition would
be much worse for them and their values — so they gritted their teeth and voted
with the coalition.
There was one exception, Meretz MK Ghaida Rinawi Zoabi, who
last month had bolted the coalition but returned after three days, and who
voted “no” this time, against the coalition. Meretz MKs know that their
constituency wants them to maintain the government as long as possible, but
their voters are also asking themselves what the point of voting for a
left-wing party is, when it is stuck in a coalition sworn to uphold the
occupation. At least some might well switch to the majority-Arab Joint List,
which refused to join the coalition, and thus voted against the bill with an
absolutely clear conscience.
Perhaps the only more anguished group were the four MKs of
the Arab and Islamist United Arab List, known by its Hebrew acronym, Ra’am,
which, unprecedentedly for an Arab party, is part of the governing coalition.
Three of them absented themselves and the fourth, like Zoabi, voted no. The
final vote, including some genuine illnesses, was 52 for the bill and 58
against.
As noted, it is unlikely that this will change things at all
for the settlers. Nor was it designated a vote of confidence, by which a loss might
have brought down the government. But things can’t go on like this. The
coalition was formed last year with 61 votes, but a right-wing MK from the PM’s
own party defected in April, leaving the opposition unable to bring the
government down, but the coalition unable to govern. Both blocs are desperately
trying to encourage more defections — with no success so far. The general
assumption is that there may have to be new elections by the end of the year,
coming on the heels of four successive elections in less than two years, the
first three of which were unable to produce a functional government
Of course that may not settle anything. Recent polls indicate
that the country continues to tilt heavily toward the right, but that in a new
election the current balance of pro- and anti-Netanyahu seats in the Knesset
may well remain the same. Netanyahu’s ongoing trial for fraud and breach of
trust is expected to last for at least another year, and he maintains his
political power.
Were Netanyahu to disappear from the scene, a government of
the mainstream right would almost certainly emerge, perhaps also including some
of the “centrists” who dominate this one.
But the former PM is a vigorous 72 and no one is counting
him out yet. So, paradoxically, though Netanyahu is loathed by the political
left and the center, it is solely his continued presence in politics and his
insistence on leading the Likud that has enabled their presence in the current
government, unwieldy as it is, and their ability, such as it is, to block
possible annexation of the West Bank, among other rightist policies.
