Yet beyond the language of deterrence lies a familiar policy
reflex: the reliance on military signalling as a primary instrument for
influencing Iran’s behaviour. This is hardly unprecedented. In 2012, reports of
F-22 Raptor stealth fighters deployed to Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab
Emirates carried similar assurances of routine scheduling and defensive intent.
Strategically, however, the message was clear — project strength, signal
readiness, and apply pressure without crossing into open conflict.
More than a decade later, the continuity is striking.
Carrier deployments, advanced aircraft rotations, and calibrated rhetoric
remain central to Washington’s Iran playbook. Such measures undoubtedly serve
tactical objectives: reassuring allies, demonstrating capability, and
maintaining leverage. But their long-term effectiveness invites scrutiny.
Iran has endured sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and
repeated demonstrations of US military power for decades without fundamentally
altering its core strategic posture. Pressure has, at times, produced limited
concessions, yet it has just as often entrenched mistrust and reinforced
Tehran’s security-centric worldview. Deterrence can prevent conflict; it does
not automatically resolve the disputes that generate it.
There is also a broader risk. Persistent cycles of
escalation and signalling narrow diplomatic space and increase the possibility
of miscalculation. In a region already burdened by volatility, symbolism can
easily harden into confrontation, even when neither side seeks direct war.
For policymakers and serious observers, the essential
question is not whether the United States should maintain a credible security
presence in the Middle East. It is whether intimidation-centric strategies
yield diminishing returns when repeated without parallel diplomatic innovation.
A more sustainable path would balance firmness with
structured engagement — linking military posture to transparent negotiation
frameworks, confidence-building measures, and pragmatic channels of
communication. History suggests that durable stability rarely emerges from
coercion alone.
Power projection may shape headlines and influence
short-term calculations, but it cannot indefinitely substitute for political
imagination. Lasting progress will depend not on repeating familiar gestures,
but on redefining the terms of engagement.

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