Arabs have no spine to reject Trump Gaza plan

I am obliged to share an article by Hilal Khashan published in Geopolitical Futures. The punch line is “Regional governments’ ability to resist will be limited by their need for Washington’s support”. This sees a harsh ground reality and it is feared that sooner than later Arabs would succumb to the US pressure. It may be recalled that Israel, with the help of United States has already brought Syria, Lebanon and Hamas on their knees and getting desperate to destroy Iranian nuclear and missile program.

Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump during a press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced his plan to take over the Gaza Strip and resettle its residents in Egypt and Jordan. A week later, he reiterated his intention during a press briefing in Washington with Jordanian King Abdullah II, who appeared uncomfortable listening to Trump’s proposal but avoided challenging the president on the matter. Fearing a similarly embarrassing situation, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi canceled his own visit to Washington scheduled for February 18.

The Palestinian question was the focal point of Arab foreign policy until the 1967 Six-Day War. Since then, Arab countries have sought various peace treaties with Israel and grown dependent on US protection for their survival. Though they cannot endorse Trump’s plan to evict Palestinians from Gaza and transform the strip into a “Riviera of the Middle East,” neither can they simply dismiss his assertions. Trump has challenged Arab leaders to come up with an alternative plan for Gaza, knowing they likely cannot.

Many observers have compared Trump’s proposal to resettle Palestinians in neighboring countries to Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser’s willingness to host them in Sinai in the early 1950s. But the conditions that led Nasser to favor the resettlement of Gazan refugees differ fundamentally from the situation in the region today.

After the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, it was the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) that proposed resettling refugees who had fled to Gaza during the conflict, in accordance with UN General Assembly resolution 194. The initiative would not have affected the 80,000 Gaza residents who were living there before the war. Arabs generally viewed it as a humanitarian endeavor, given the wide range of relief services the agency provided, rather than a liquidation plan, as opponents of Trump’s proposal see it.

The UN-sponsored initiative ultimately collapsed. In 1953, UNRWA and Egypt, under Nasser, signed a plan to resettle 120,000 refugees from Gaza. Two years later, they agreed that the Egyptian town of Qantara, located east of Suez and 220 kilometers (140 miles) southwest of Gaza, would be the location of a new settlement for the refugees. But in retaliation for the United States and Britain’s refusal to fund the construction of the Aswan High Dam, Nasser withdrew his support from the project.

The Palestinian issue has long been a sensitive topic in the Arab world. Arab governments know they cannot be seen as supportive of a US plan to remove Palestinians from Gaza. Still, Arab countries’ responses to the proposal have been weak and indecisive. They even postponed an emergency Arab League summit scheduled for the end of this month to discuss an alternative plan for Gaza, under the pretext that some Arab heads of state had prior commitments.

El-Sissi launched a fierce media campaign to try to convince the Egyptian public that Cairo will not give in to threats and blackmail. (Pentagon officials had hinted to Egyptian officials that military aid, including repairs to equipment and spare parts, could be affected by Egypt’s position on the Trump plan). Egyptian officials also helped organize demonstrations against the proposal, hoping to convey a message to Washington that the Egyptian people (and not just the government) rejected the relocation plan. Egypt’s top mufti called the proposal irresponsible and provocative and said it violates international norms and humanitarian standards – sentiments Arab leaders dare not say themselves.

El-Sissi said the relocation of Gazans to Egypt would be a direct threat to his regime, as Palestinians would disseminate a culture of resistance and promote their own interests inside Egypt. In a public address, el-Sissi described the displacement of Palestinians as an injustice in which Cairo cannot participate and insisted that he would not tolerate any actions that harm Egyptian national security, without specifying how resettling Gazans in Sinai would do so.

He reiterated his determination to work with Trump and said the US president still wants to achieve a two-state solution. Despite believing that Israel will not allow the establishment of a Palestinian state, Egypt at least officially continues to focus on the importance of cooperation with the United States to achieve a just peace between the Palestinians and Israel and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

Egyptian officials told the US director of national intelligence that Cairo will cancel its peace agreement with Israel if the Trump administration continues to push to displace Gaza residents or stops the flow of US aid. However, the most el-Sissi can do is temporarily suspend the Camp David Accords, knowing the consequences of fully repealing the treaty would be intolerable for Cairo. The Egyptians fear that Trump’s global ambitions go beyond annexing Canada and Greenland and acquiring Ukraine’s mineral resources. They believe he could be eyeing the Sinai Desert, given its strategic location, abundance of natural resources and tourist attractions.

Egypt has learned the lessons of the 1967 war. It is not serious about a military confrontation with Israel, no matter what happens to Palestinians in Gaza, and it will not create the conditions for another disastrous conflict, despite the uproar. The Egyptian government even released a statement saying the Egyptian and US presidents agreed on a number of topics during a recent call, avoiding any mention of Trump’s Gaza proposal.

Elsewhere in the Middle East, most Arab countries, including Jordan, issued perfunctory statements rejecting Trump’s calls to displace people from Gaza. But they failed to announce any measures to counter the plan. Their responses likely won’t go beyond verbal denunciations, a time-honored practice for Arab officials.

Call for single Palestinian government

In a joint statement, issued at the end of the meeting, the foreign ministers and representatives of the Arab and European countries pledged full support to the efforts to reach an immediate ceasefire, as well as to release hostages, and end the war in Gaza. The meeting also called for ending all illegal unilateral actions and violations in the occupied Palestinian territories, including East Jerusalem as well as for addressing the ongoing catastrophic humanitarian crisis.

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and Foreign Minister of Norway Espen Barth Eide co-chaired the meeting between the Ministerial Committee, assigned by the Joint Arab- Islamic Extraordinary Summit on Developments in the Gaza Strip, and the European foreign ministers and representatives, to discuss the urgent need to end the war in Gaza and to take steps to implement the two-state solution.

The meeting stressed the need to intensify support for state-building efforts, support the new Palestinian government, and the importance of having a single Palestinian government in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza.

The meeting underscored the importance of moving the conflict into a political track so as to enable a political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Concrete steps towards realization of a Palestinian State in the context of the two-state solution were figured high in the meeting. An increased urgency to take such steps and the importance of coordinating positions were emphasized. The meeting also discussed the matter of recognition of a Palestinian State by countries that have not yet done so, and the timing and context of such recognition.

The ministers emphasized the importance of the need to adopt a holistic approach towards a credible irreversible track for the implementation of the two-state solution. This needs to be in accordance with international law and agreed parameters, including United Nations Security Council Resolutions and the Arab Peace Initiative, among other initiatives.

The objective is to achieve a just and lasting peace that fulfills the rights of the Palestinian people and the security of Israel and the region. In return, this will pave the way for normal relations between countries in a region, where stability, security, peace and cooperation prevail.

The meeting was attended by foreign ministers and representatives of Algeria, Bahrain, Belgium, Egypt, the European Union, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Jordan, Arab League, Palestine, Portugal, Qatar, Slovenia, Spain, Türkiye, and the United Arab Emirates.

US duplicity and Arab cowardice facilitating genocide in Gaza

President Biden, looking somber, keeps urging Israel to avoid civilian deaths and to use targeted strikes on Hamas. Yet he keeps supplying Israel with 2,000 pound bunker buster bombs that are designed to kill indiscriminately and over a wide area. 

He reels against nuclear proliferation and vows to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Yet the United States will not even acknowledge the fact that Israel possesses over 200 nukes, let alone endorse a longstanding Arab and Iranian proposal to declare the region a nuclear-free zone, simply to facilitate Israel to threaten its neighbors of risk of a nuclear war. 

The United State says it wants an end to hostilities and civilian deaths, largely those of women and children in the Gaza war that is not a war because what we have is an army of well-equipped soldiers massacring defenseless women and children. Yet at the United Nations Security Council, the US has exercised vetoed three resolutions demanding an immediate ceasefire.

The world recognizes that Israel’s occupation of the West Bank is illegal and the US says these settlements should not be expanded, yet it is overlooking proliferation of settlements.

Lately, at the International Court of Justice, the US rushed to Israel’s defense—urging the 15-judge panel not to call for Israel’s withdrawal from occupied Palestinian territory. The American State Department lawyer in support of Israel argued that the solution was not an Israeli withdrawal but that a sovereign Palestinian state living safely and securely alongside Israel would bring about lasting peace, repeating longstanding US platitudes that Netanyahu and two of his cabinet ministers have said will never be allowed by Israel.

The US espouses these words in public in support of a Palestinian state, yet does nothing to make it a reality. 

The US officials say that they have limited power over Netanyahu and Israel. Why doesn’t Biden announce: 1) US will no longer support Israeli intransigence at the United Nations, 2) US will suspend all financial and military aid to Israel (amounting to around US$300 billion over the years), and US will no longer sell arms to Israel?

Netanyahu will do as he is told. If Netanyahu does not do as told by the US and if Israel then loses US backing, Israelis would feel so naked and vulnerable that they would demand a change of government, it is that simple.

Regrettably, no US president dares taking such a stand because of the power of the Jewish lobby. It’s time for the US citizens to wake up and demand their government treat Israel as an ally but not as the 51st state.

It will not be wrong to say that the US foreign policy toward the Middle East is in large part subservient to Israeli demands and the Jewish lobby.

Palestinians have also received little or no effective backing from their Arab and Muslim brethren. Most Arab and Muslim countries have supported South Africa’s case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and others have voiced their anger at Israel’s attack on Gaza, but there is much more that they could do if they had a little courage and compassion in the face of the massacre of innocent civilians, largely women and children. 

If Arabs and Muslims want to force a change in the US policies and create a Palestinian state forthwith, they should: 1) recall their ambassadors to Washington (and to Tel Aviv for those having relations), 2) expel all US military personnel (bases) from their territories, 3) follow up with both primary and secondary economic sanctions on Israel, and 4) bring cases at the International Criminal Court (ICC) against Israeli leaders and American and European heads of state for complicity in Israeli war crimes, ethnic cleansing and genocide.

Cognizant of the fact that Israel and the US are not members of the ICC, enforcement of the court verdicts is difficult, still a conviction would be a black mark that no one would want.

Some Arab countries would be wise to consider these steps sooner rather than later as they may face growing domestic demands for action, while may lead to unrest.

Courtesy: Tehran Times

 

G20 decisions, what next for Pakistan?

The G20 conference has come to an end in Delhi, where a lot happened which can become a permanent topic separately.

For example, the Indian media mentioned a statement by the Prime Minister of Italy regarding BRI, the Prime Minister of Canada spoke about Khalistan while standing in the Indian capital and when the rights of Sikh in Canada holding a referendum on Khalistan.

Muhammad Mehdi, Chairman of the Institute of International Relations and Media Research has discussed the concept of the Global South that President Biden arrived in Delhi with this concept, and the leadership of the Global South will be handed over to India according to Washington’s vision. 

According to Mehdi, for Pakistan any situation that affects the region is extremely important because the country would be affected whether it likes it or not. The Global South's vision is to prepare India to compete with China's BRI project.

India does not have enough economic size to be able to do this on its own, so its economic needs will be fulfilled by the United States as much as it needs compared to China.

The next and very important question is, whether the US economy under the debt of US$7.6 trillion has enough power to meet these needs or not? In order to promote the concept of the Global South, an MoU was signed during the G20 summit in India.

This economic corridor project will connect ports and rail links to the Middle East, Israel and Europe. The project is being named as India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEEC).

It includes United States, India, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and the European Union. The goal of this project is to connect India's ports with the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia by developing a large-scale rail network and then get access to Israel and Europe from there. And apart from the Suez Canal, another route should be developed while China's BRI project should also be made a response to it.

Discussions on this project started in 2021 at a Business Forum between the United States, India, UAE and Israel, and later Saudi Arabia also joined these discussions.

When the Abraham Accords was being signed between certain Arab countries and Israel under the patronage of the United States, Mehdi had said that it should not be seen only in the context of the Arab countries and Israel, but it will have far-reaching consequences on the region where Pakistan is located and that has started happening.

Saudi Arabia does not recognize Israel, but it has recognized Israel's position in this agreement. Now, what does the US want to achieve by including the Arab countries in it? It is clear that through the BRI project, China's footprints are clearly visible on the Arab land.  

This is not only limited to economic matters, but by standing with Saudi Arabia and Iran, China has given a clear message that now its political position has also become strong in this region and the UAE and Saudi Arabia have also joined BRICS, which also includes India, but its souls are China and Russia.

According to Mehdi, United States cannot afford such a situation. When the Ottoman Empire disintegrated as a result of the First World War, the British shadow remained over the Arab region from that time until the end of the Second World War, and then later the United States replaced the United Kingdom and enjoyed its position solely.

But China's recent successes have put many question marks on the presence of the US supremacy in this region and its future, and the supwer is taking steps to maintain its supremacy by presenting the concept of the Global South. And in order to achieve this goal, India is being encouraged.

Narendra Modi will face polls and in order to win he needs to put his nation behind a truck light similar to what he has achieved by holding this conference and promoting this economic corridor.

This is called a political slogan because there is a very strong belief that the current US economy, which will have a debt of US7.6 trillion by the end of year 2024, is not strong enough to support this project. 

Regarding the same thing that happened to the New Silk route project announced by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton during the Obama era, an economic route would be made from Afghanistan, but then it could never be implemented.

The real goal of the current plan seems to be to confuse the Arab world with the fact that the United States is coming down a new path and to make them think about how far they should go with China and how much should be carried forward.

If the US succeeds in getting the Arab countries into this mess, it will be a success. Because these Arab countries are concerned about their internal and international security, and they still depend on the largest suppliers of arms and military might.

Muhammad Mehdi is the Chairman of the Institute of International Relations and Media Research

 

“Warsaw meeting a failure for Arabs”, says Nuri al-Maliki

Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki called the Warsaw conference an “open failure” for Arabs, saying the meeting was primarily intended to deflect attention from the Israeli aggressions in the region to a focus on Iran, according to an ISNA report.

Speaking on Alahad TV, Maliki warned about the aims of the conference and its danger for the entire region.

The Warsaw meeting, co-hosted by the U.S. and Poland was intended to isolate Iran but it ended in failure as major European countries sent low level officials to the meeting and criticized the U.S. for trying to demonize Iran.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who initially announced that the conference was intended to highlight what he called Iran’s “destabilizing behavior” in the region, was forced to change the agenda of the conference when he faced pressure from Europe and others.

Noting that such moves threaten Iraq and all other regional states, Maliki said the Warsaw conference revealed the “secret relationship” between certain Arab states with the Zionist regime which has been existing since some years ago.

The former prime minister praised the Iraqi government’s position on the conference and its refusal to participate in it.

Citing a story, Maliki said when he was prime minister a foreign minister from an Arab country proposed establishment of “the Middle East economic system” in which Israel would be a member.

 “I told the Arab minister that Iraq will not be party to any organization which Israel would be a member,” explained Maliki.