crude oil prices fall on potential Iran deal

Oil prices fell US$3 a barrel on Thursday as demand weakness and a report that the United States and Iran may be approaching a deal on oil exports outweighed expectations of tighter Saudi supply and a potential pause to US interest rate hikes.

Oil fell on a news report, citing sources, that Iran and the US are nearing a temporary deal that would trade some sanctions relief in exchange for reducing Iran's uranium enrichment.

Brent crude was down US$2.2, or 2.86%, at US$74.64 a barrel by 1644 GMT, having earlier dropped as much as US$3.  WTI fell by US$2.40, or 3.3%, to US$70.12.

A larger than expected rise in US gasoline inventories also raised concern over demand, while US crude stockpiles registered a small decline of 451,000 barrels.

At an OPEC Plus meeting on Sunday, Saudi Arabia said it will cut its crude output by one million barrels per day in July on top of a broader deal to limit supply into 2024 as the producer group seeks to boost flagging prices.

"With the OPEC Plus meeting out of the way, focus is now shifting towards the next move the Fed will make when it meets next week," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM.

There is growing consensus that the central bank will skip a rate hike, which could lift oil prices even before falling supply starts draining global oil inventories, Varga added.

Economists polled by Reuters expect that the US Fed will not raise interest rates at its June 13-14 meeting. But a significant minority expects at least one more increase this year.

Still, a surprise rate increase in Canada gave investors their second reminder of the week, following the Australian central bank's monetary policy tightening, that the surge in global interest rates is not done yet.

The US dollar was slightly weaker on Thursday, making oil cheaper for buyers holding other currencies.

Both oil benchmarks settled up about 1% on Wednesday, supported by the Saudi plan, though gains remained capped by rising US fuel stocks and weak Chinese economic data.

Iran: Drones Attack Military Factory

A loud explosion was heard at a military industry factory near Iran's central city of Isfahan. Tehran said it was a drone strike by unidentified attackers.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack, which came amid tension with the West over Tehran's nuclear work and supply of arms for Russia's war in Ukraine, as well as months of anti-government demonstrations at home.

The extent of the damage could not be independently confirmed. Iran's Defence Ministry said the explosion caused only minor damage and no casualties.

Iranian media video showed a flash of light at the plant, which the official IRNA news agency described as an ammunitions factory. Footage showed emergency vehicles and fire trucks outside the complex.

"Around 2000 GMT on Saturday night, an unsuccessful attack was carried out using micro Aerial Vehicles (MAVs) on one of the ministry's workshop sites," the Defence Ministry said in a statement carried by Iran's state TV.

It said one drone was shot down and the other two were caught in defence traps and blown up. It caused only minor damage to the roof of a workshop building. There were no casualties."

The attack has not affected our installations and mission...and such blind measures will not have an impact on the continuation of the country's progress.

Separately, IRNA reported early on Sunday a massive fire at a motor oil factory in an industrial zone near the northwestern city of Tabriz. It gave no information about the cause of that blaze.

Iran has in the past accused its arch enemy Israel of planning attacks using agents inside Iranian territory. In July 2022, Tehran said it had arrested a sabotage team made up of Kurdish militants working for Israel who planned to blow up a sensitive defence industry centre in Isfahan.

An Israeli military spokesperson declined comment when asked if Israel had a connection to the latest incident. Israel has long said it could attack Iran if diplomacy fails to curb Tehran's nuclear or missile programs, but has a policy of withholding comment on specific incidents.

Several Iranian nuclear sites are located in Isfahan province, including Natanz, centre piece of Iran’s uranium enrichment program, which Iran accuses Israel of sabotaging in 2021. There have been a number of explosions and fires around Iranian military, nuclear and industrial facilities in recent years.

Talks between Tehran and world powers to revive a 2015 nuclear pact have stalled since September 2022. Under the pact, abandoned by Washington under President Donald Trump, Iran agreed to limit nuclear work in return for easing of sanctions.

Iran has acknowledged sending drones to Russia but says they were sent before Moscow's invasion of Ukraine last year. Moscow denies its forces use Iranian drones in Ukraine, although many have been shot down and recovered there.

 

Iran sentences four people to death for cooperating with Mossad

Four people were sentenced to death on Wednesday by Iran's judiciary for allegedly cooperating with Mossad, the Israeli intelligence service and committing kidnappings, the semi-official Mehr news agency reported.

The Islamic Republic has long accused arch-enemy Israel of carrying out covert operations on its soil. Tehran has lately accused Israeli and Western intelligence services of plotting a civil war in the country, now gripped by some of the biggest anti-government protests since its 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Mehr named the four accused and, referring to Israel, said they were sentenced to death for the crime of cooperating with the intelligence services of the Zionist regime and for kidnapping.

It added, "With guidance from the Zionist intelligence service, this network of thugs was stealing and destroying private and public property, kidnapping people, and obtaining fake confessions."

Mehr said the accused had been arrested by the Revolutionary Guards and the Ministry of Intelligence.

Three other people were handed prison sentences of between five and 10 years for allegedly committing crimes such as acting against national security, aiding in kidnapping, and possessing illegal weapons, it said.

Iran denies smuggling missile fuel to Yemen

Iran has unequivocally denied the US Navy's allegations that it attempted to sneak 70 tons of a missile fuel component onto a ship headed for Yemen and concealed it amid bags of fertilizer.

Iran's Permanent Mission to the UN in New York denied the accusations as unfounded in a statement, saying Tehran is firmly committed to UN Security Council Resolution 2216, which places an arms embargo on Yemen.

The statement said, “None of the allegations made against Iran over the smuggling of guns to Yemen had been proven. Iran has not taken any action against the resolution and is actively complying with the sanctions committee constituted to supervise the arms embargo."

Iran is "doing its utmost to restore the truce agreement and enable talks between Yemeni factions as soon as feasible in order to achieve peace and stability in Yemen," the diplomatic mission added.

The US Navy purportedly said that on November 08, 2022 the Coast Guard ship USCGC John Scheuerman and the guided-missile destroyer USS The Sullivans intercepted a traditional wooden sailing vessel known as a dhow in the Sea of Oman.

It claimed sailors allegedly found sachets of ammonium perchlorate concealed within what at first glance looked to be a consignment of 100 tons of urea.

In addition, the forces claimed that the quantity of ammonium perchlorate found could power more than a dozen medium-range ballistic missiles that members of the Ansarullah movement have used to launch retaliatory attacks against targets inside Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The president of Yemen's Supreme Political Council criticized US Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking earlier this month for thwarting efforts to prolong the UN-brokered ceasefire and compared the situation in his nation to a ticking time bomb.

"We are in a position of no peace and no war. Although we had made significant progress in earlier rounds of negotiations, the American envoy's visit to the region derailed those efforts," Mahdi al-Mashat was reported as saying in Sanaa on November 07 by Yemen's official Saba news agency.

Al-Mashat referred to Lenderking's trip to the region beginning on October 11 to ostensibly assist the UN-led efforts to extend the cease-fire in Yemen as "while the US ambassador pretends to be a peace dove, he is more an ill-omened owl."

Together with its Arab allies, the US and other Western powers provided Saudi Arabia with munitions and logistical support when it began its destructive war against Yemen in March 2015.

The goal was to overthrow the Ansarullah resistance movement, which had been in charge of the government in Yemen in the absence of a functioning one, and reinstate Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi's pro-Riyadh regime.

Despite the fact that the Saudi-led coalition has not succeeded in achieving any of its goals, the war has killed hundreds of thousands of Yemenis and caused the greatest humanitarian disaster in history.

 

US Centcom alleges Iranian made drone hit tanker off Oman

An attack on a tanker off the coast of Oman on Tuesday was carried out by an Iranian-made drone, US Central Command said in a statement, adding that a multilateral maritime operation led by a British Royal Navy frigate had responded to the area.

An Israeli official had blamed Iran for the strike on the Pacific Zircon tanker managed by Israeli-controlled Eastern Pacific Shipping. The company said there was minor damage to the hull but no injuries or spillage of the gas oil cargo.

A White House official earlier said the United States was confident that Iran likely conducted the hit using an unmanned aerial vehicle. Iran's Nournews, which is affiliated with the country's top security body, blamed Israel for the attack.

US Central Command said in a statement late on Wednesday that debris reveals that it was a Shahed-series one-way attack drone that hit the vessel, identifying it as Iranian-made.

This unmanned aerial vehicle attack against a civilian vessel in this critical maritime strait demonstrates, once again, the destabilizing nature of Iranian malign activity in the region," the Central Command statement said.

It said a multilateral operation responded to the scene led by the British Royal Navy's HMS Lancaster. US Navy guided-missile destroyer USS The Sullivans and a US Navy patrol coastal ship and patrol craft were involved in the operation.

Attacks on tankers in Gulf waters in recent years have come at times of heightened regional tensions with Iran.

In July 2021, a suspected drone attack off Oman's coast hit a petroleum product tanker managed by an Israeli firm. Iran denied the accusations that it was responsible.

 

 

 

 

 

United States shuns Iran nuclear talks

Iran's crackdown on protesters and the sale of drones to Russia have turned the United States focus away from reviving a nuclear deal, Washington's special envoy for Iran said.

Speaking to reporters in Paris, Robert Malley insisted that the United States would leave the door open to resume diplomacy when and if the time came, but for now Washington would continue a policy of sanctions and pressure.

Talks to revive a 2015 accord between Iran and world powers have been at a stalemate since September. 

Western states accuse Iran of making unreasonable demands after all sides appeared to be nearing a deal.

"If these negotiations are not happening, it's because of Iran's position and everything that has happened since September," Malley said.

"Our focus is not an accord that isn't moving forward, but what is happening in Iran ... this popular movement and the brutal crackdown of the regime against protesters. It's the sale of armed drones by Iran to Russia ... and the liberation of our hostages," he said referring to three American nationals held in Iran.

Anti-government protests broke out in September over the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini while she was in police custody. The European Union, the United States, Canada and Britain have imposed sanctions over human rights abuses in Iran as well as for its drone sales to Moscow.

Iran has continued its nuclear program, installing hundreds more advanced centrifuges. The machines enrich uranium, increasing the country's ability to enrich well beyond the limits set by the 2015 deal. Iran began breaching those terms in 2019 in response to a US withdrawal in 2018 under then-President Donald Trump.

The 2015 agreement limited Iran’s uranium enrichment activity to make it harder for Tehran to develop nuclear arms, in return for lifting international sanctions. Iran denies wanting to acquire nuclear weapons.

Malley declined to give a timeframe on how long Washington would accept the status quo, but said if diplomacy failed the United States was ready to use other tools.

"If Iran takes the initiative to cross new thresholds in its nuclear program, then obviously the response will be different and coordinated with our European allies," Malley said, without elaborating.

"There is no magic in which we will find a new formula." Diplomats said Malley would hold talks in Paris with French, German and British counterparts on Tuesday.

 

 

 

 

 

Young Americans turning against Israel

A new extensive research has revealed American public views toward Washington’s foreign policy with the majority of younger American opposing Washington's arms sales to the Israeli regime. The study also reveals massive support among the Americans toward a return to the Iran nuclear deal.

The survey conducted by the Eurasia Group Foundation suggests that the younger American generation is becoming politically more aware of Israeli atrocities and the insecurity it brings to West Asia. The majority of those surveyed (18-29 years old) disapprove the ongoing arms assistance to Israel. Albeit Americans of older age groups (above 60 years of age) are more supportive of the US military assistance to the occupying regime.

The United States provides Israel with some US$4 billion in annual military aid. That makes the regime the largest recipient of American military aid. However, the money comes from the pockets of American taxpayers, many of whom are not aware that their money is funding genocide and ethnic cleansing of the indigenous people of Palestine. 

Nearly 80% support the Biden administration negotiating a return to the Iran nuclear deal. There has been strong regional and international debate over how much ordinary Americans support their government's military assistance to authoritarian, occupying, apartheid regimes and dictatorships. Washington regularly claims security reasons for the assistance it provides but very few buy this argument. 

Mark Hannah, a senior fellow at Eurasia Group Foundation said, "We began this survey five years ago because we believed lawmakers and foreign policy leaders conducting foreign policy on behalf of the American people would benefit from a window into their opinions and priorities." 

Hannah expressed hope, "Those inside the Beltway use this survey to make the activities they pursue more sensitive to — and informed by — the opinions of their constituents, and to bridge the gap between the concerns of policymakers and those of ordinary Americans."

Just last month, the US aviation giant Boeing revealed that it will be providing the Israeli regime with four Boeing refueling military aircrafts in the coming years as part of the free military aid it receives from Washington.

The contract between Boeing and the US Defense Department is to the tune US$927 million for the four KC-46A aircraft. In essence, that means the US taxpayer will pay the price by footing the bill of US$927 million. Boeing will make a considerable profit and the regime will find more opportunities to create regional instability.

The Israeli war minister, Benny Gantz said, "This is yet another testament to the powerful alliance and strategic ties between the defense establishments and governments of Israel and the United States."

As per the norm the war minister and other regime’s officials alongside their counterparts in Washington cite Iran as the pretext for the massive military aid budget. 

US military aid to Israel has mostly bipartisan backing in Congress and continues to be approved by a majority of lawmakers each year.

The University of Maryland found less than one percent of respondents viewed Israel as one of Washington's top two allies. Over the years there have been other polls that reflect the findings by the Eurasia Group Foundation. Earlier this year, a Pew Research poll also showed critical views toward Israel among younger Americans - respondents (under 30 years of age) 61% of this age group had favorable views of the Palestinian people.

Also this year, the University of Maryland found less than one percent of respondents viewed Israel as one of Washington's top two allies.

Zuri Linetsky, a research fellow at EGF, told Middle East Eye, "We asked the question about ranking why you would stop selling [arms] and specifically respondents who were against selling arms to Israel said that it violates human rights through its enduring occupation of Palestine. So that resonates with people."

The latest poll also shows American opposition to the ongoing US arms sales to Saudi Arabia, with nearly 70% of respondents disapproving the massive sale of US weapons to Riyadh. Saudi Arabia has used Western-supplied weapons, especially Americans, to level Yemeni infrastructure to the ground.

This is despite growing concern among rights groups that more arms sales to countries, such as Saudi Arabia bombing Yemen or Israel attacking other nations, continue to be approved by the Biden administration. In August, President Biden approved a massive US$5 billion weapons sale to Saudi Arabia and the UAE for missile technology.

The study also shows how respondents are in favor of curbing US military adventurism overseas and the increasing support of more efforts by the US administration towards diplomacy, even with American adversaries.

Among the top takeaways of the Eurasia Group Foundation findings in the West Asia region are:

On the Iran Nuclear Deal:

Regardless of the partisan leanings, Democrat or Republican, most Americans are in favor of negotiations with Iran. Nearly 80% support the Biden administration negotiating a return to the Iran nuclear deal. That support is notably bipartisan; more than 70% of Republicans believed the US should continue to pursue these negotiations.

"We found that there are vocal critics on both sides of the political aisle in Congress, against pursuing an agreement with Iran, but those views don't necessarily reflect what we're finding amongst the survey respondents," Lucas Robinson, an external relations associate at the foundation, told MEE.

The Biden administration has continued with his predecessor's policies on Iran; the so-called maximum pressure campaign that have led to the death of children with rare diseases and cancer patients alongside a whole range of other humanitarian issues that have hurt ordinary Iranian people.

On War Powers:

Roughly 80% believe the president's war-making abilities should be more restricted by Congress, representing a consecutive two-year increase. The US has waged numerous invasions of countries, most notably Afghanistan and Iraq. It continues to occupy parts of West Asia illegally and is invoked in secret military programs without the consent of Congress. 

On Afghanistan:

Nearly two-thirds of respondents think the most important lesson from the war in Afghanistan was that the United States should not be in the business of nation-building or that it should only send troops into harm's way if vital national interests are threatened.

With regards to the issue of nuclear weapons, nearly 75% are concerned with nuclear weapons. Respondents who have served or are currently serving in the military are significantly less concerned than those without military experience.

"For the vast majority of the 21st century, the United States has been involved in conflicts and in far-flung parts of the world. So the question is, is this what the American people want? Does this represent their interests?" Linetsky asks.

"This is very much a test to see where people who take surveys fall down on what American policy is towards the world and what they think their leaders' priorities should be, be they international or domestic."

The White House is at odds with most respondents - a diverse group of Americans across the country from different religions, political affiliations, age groups and income levels.

The foundation surveyed more than 2,000 voting-age Americans online with detailed questions about US foreign policy and America's global role.

 

 

US planning new sanctions on Iranian oil sales

The United States is planning to impose new sanctions on Iranian oil sales, according to a tweet by Bloomberg TV’s Annmarie Hordern.

“The sanctions will focus on entities facilitating the oil trade, and will be part of a broader plan to set up sanctions on the regime in the coming weeks,” Hordern said on Thursday afternoon.

For months now, a new nuclear deal with Iran has kept the market on edge and has been routinely touted as “imminent.” However, a deal has yet to be struck. In just the last couple of weeks, the hope of reaching a deal seemed less certain.

It was often expressed by market pundits that reaching a new nuclear deal with Iran could send oil prices plummeting, with Iran finding it easier to export more oil barrels without the current sanctions.

A new round of sanctions from the United States on Iranian oil exports— termed secondary sanctions on those helping to facilitate Iranian oil trade—would likely have the opposite effect on oil prices.

While the United States prepares to announce additional sanctions on Iranian oil sales—the announcement alone which would certainly send prices upwards to some degree—it is sending the clear message to the US oil and gas industry that gasoline prices are still too high.

On Wednesday evening, US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said that motor gasoline prices should be 30 cents lower than the currently prevailing.

“Prices at the pump should be falling, not rising. Companies need to fix this,” Granholm said in a Tweet.

Iran ready to release millions of barrels of oil

Iran has considerable volumes of oil in floating storage that it could quickly release should a deal with the United States be finalized.

In an update earlier this month, OilX claimed that Iran has some 40 million barrels, the bulk of which is probably condensate.

Vortexa estimates Iranian crude in floating storage at 60 million to 70 million barrels, while Kpler has estimated these at 93 million barrels, Bloomberg reported lately.

The volumes would not be released immediately, however, as issues such as insurance and shipping would need to be dealt with first.

“Iran has built up a sizable flotilla of cargoes that could hit the market fairly soon,” John Driscoll from JTD Energy Services told Bloomberg.

Currently, Iran and the United States are both considering the final version of an agreement proposed by the European Union, which is acting as an intermediary in the negotiations.

According to recent reports, some of the problems have been straightened out but others still remain and need to get resolved before a deal is finalized.

Israel’s Haaretz reported that it had seen a copy of the draft proposal, which involves the release of prisoners from Iran and, in exchange, the release of Iranian funds from international bank accounts.

Iran will be free to keep the uranium it had enriched so far but banned from violating the nuclear deal, the Israeli daily wrote.

A nuclear deal would mean the return of Iranian crude to international markets, at a rate of some 1.3 million bpd, according to a recent Financial Times report. This would substantially lower oil prices, at least for a while.

Iran is eager to boost its exports of crude but it has signaled it would not rush into a deal until its last remaining demands are made. Chief among them is a guarantee that the deal would survive during future US administrations.

One may recall, Managing Director of National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) has said the country’s oil production capacity is going to increase by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 4.038 million by the end of the current Iranian calendar year (March 20, 2023). The official put the Islamic Republic’s current oil production capacity at 3.838 million bpd.

“With the measures taken, Iran's oil production capacity will increase to 4.038 million barrels per day by the end of this year,” Mohsen Khojasteh-Mehr had told IRNA.

Pointing to the increase in the country’s oil exports over the past 12 months since the 13th government has taken office, the Deputy Oil Minister said: “Considering the increase in oil production capacity, it is possible to increase our exports if demand in global markets increases.”

Khojasteh-Mehr noted that the above-mentioned figure is the country’s optimal capacity and whenever the international conditions are more open, Iran will be ready to significantly increase exports and return to the world markets with maximum power.

In early April, Oil Minister Javad Oji had said that the country’s crude oil production has reached the pre-sanction level.

Saying that the current capacity of Iran’s oil production has reached more than 3.8 million bpd, the minister said, “We hope that through the efforts of all those active in this sector, we will reach higher figures in the exports of crude oil, gas condensate, oil products, and petrochemicals in the current Iranian calendar year.

“By taking effective measures in onshore and offshore oil fields, drilling new wells, repairing wells, rebuilding and modernizing facilities, and oil collection centers, the current oil production capacity has reached before the sanctions, and we have no problem in performance and this amount of production”, Oji added.

 

Crude oil prices slip on receding fears of output cut by OPEC Plus

Crude oil prices fell on Wednesday, taking a breather from a near 4% surge the previous day, on receding fears of an imminent output cut by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group known as OPEC Plus.

Global benchmark Brent crude futures fell to US$99.82 a barrel by 0337 GMT, after rising 3.9% and WTI futures declined to US$93.47 a barrel, having jumped 3.7% on Tuesday.

Both contracts soared on Tuesday after Energy Minister of Saudi Arabia flagged the possibility of supply cuts to balance a market it described as "schizophrenic", with the paper and physical markets becoming increasingly disconnected.

"While Abdulaziz bin Salman's comment may have achieved more than putting a floor under crude prices, we expect it to follow the law of diminishing returns, unless it is followed up by more signals or action from OPEC Plus to restrain output," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

With OPEC Plus already delivering about 2.8 million barrels per day less than its monthly target, cutting production is going to be more complicated than usual, Hari added.

Potential OPEC Plus production cuts may not be imminent and are likely to coincide with the return of Iran to oil markets should it clinch a nuclear deal with the West, nine OPEC sources told Reuters on Tuesday.

A senior US official told Reuters on Monday that Iran had dropped some of its main demands on resurrecting a deal. 

"Tuesday's rally was overdone as many investors knew it would take several months for Iranian oil to flow into the international market even if an agreement to revive Tehran's 2015 nuclear deal was made, meaning OPEC Plus would not trim output so quickly," said Kazuhiko Saito, Chief Analyst at Fujitomi Securities.

"Still, there is not much room for the market's downside due to robust heating fuel demand for the winter," he said, citing that the recent rally in the US heating oil market and surging natural gas prices boosted expectations for stronger heating oil demand and tighter crude supply.

US gas prices shot above US$10 for the first time in about 14 years due to a surge in prices in Europe, where tight supplies persist.

Underlining tight supply, US crude stockpiles fell by about 5.6 million barrels for the week ended August 19, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday, against analysts' estimate of a drop by 900,000 barrels.

But gasoline inventories rose by about 268,000 barrels, while distillate stocks increased by about 1.1 million barrels.

Oil prices take a dip on weak demand outlook

According to early morning reports, crude oil prices fell on Tuesday as bleak economic data from top crude buyer China renewed fears of a global recession. 

While Brent crude futures fell to US$94.37 a barrel by 0313 GMT, WTI crude futures dipped to US$88.97. Oil futures fell about 3% during the previous session.

China's central bank cut lending rates to revive demand as the economy slowed unexpectedly in July, with factory and retail activity squeezed by Beijing's zero-COVID policy and a property crisis.

"Commodities prices across the board were under pressure as China's July economic data painted a more downbeat growth picture than previously expected, which prompted renewed concerns on demand outlook," wrote Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist from IG Group in a note.

China's fuel product exports are expected to rebound in August to near a year high after Beijing issued more quotas, adding pressure to already-cooling refining margins.

Investors also watched talks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. More oil could enter the market if Iran and the United States accept an offer from the European Union, which would remove sanctions on Iranian oil exports, analysts said.

Iran responded to the European Union's final draft text to save a 2015 nuclear deal on Monday, an EU official said, but provided no details on Iran's response to the text. The Iranian foreign minister called on the United States to show flexibility to resolve three remaining issues.

In the United States, total output in the major US shale oil basins will rise to 9.049 million bpd in September, the highest since March 2020, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its productivity report on Monday.

Market participants awaited industry data on US crude stockpiles due later on Tuesday. Oil and gasoline stockpiles likely fell last week, while distillate inventories rose, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

The premium for front-month WTI futures over barrels loading in six months stood at US$3.46 a barrel on Tuesday, the lowest level in four months, suggesting easing tightness in prompt supplies.

 

US adamant at keeping Iran out of oil market

Having imposed economic sanctions on Iran for more than four decades, especially after signing of nuclear deal with Iran in 2015, United States remains adamant at keeping Iran out of oil market. It may be recalled that when the things were taking some shape, President, Donald Trump withdrew his country from the deal in 2018.

Nuclear negotiators who have gathered in Vienna after a five month-hiatus have indicated that they are optimistic about reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

“We stand five minutes or five seconds from the finish line,” Russian Ambassador Mikhail Ulyanov told reporters outside Vienna’s Palais Coburg on Sunday, four days into the talks. He said there are “three or four issues” left to be resolved.

“They are sensitive, especially for Iranians and Americans,” Ulyanov said. “I cannot guarantee, but the impression is that we are moving in the right direction.”

Enrique Mora, the European Union’s top negotiator who acts as mediator between Iran and the US, also said he is “absolutely” optimistic about the talks’ progress so far.

“We are advancing and I expect we will close the negotiations soon,” he told Iranian media.

The Wall Street Journal also said negotiations between Iran and the US on reviving the JCPOA are close to completion, Mora said on Sunday evening.

The text of an agreement could be closed in coming hours, said Mora.

According to the Iranian diplomats, experts are focusing on technical issues about Iran’s nuclear program.

Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), had confirmed on Saturday that the talks were mainly focused on Safeguards issues.

One of Iran’s demands is that the IAEA should stop unsubstantiated allegations regarding PMD that had already been resolved in July 2015, when the nuclear deal was struck.

In a telephone call with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres on Sunday afternoon, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said, “We believe that the Agency should completely resolve the remaining issues related to the Safeguards Agreement by distancing itself from irrelevant and non-constructive political issues and through the technical channel.”

He added, “Nuclear weapons have no place in the defense doctrine of the Islamic Republic of Iran and are in contradiction to our policies and beliefs,” referring to a fatwa (religious decree) by Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei declaring that the production, stockpile and use of nuclear weapons as forbidden.

"The Leader's fatwa that prohibits the use of nuclear weapons is clear-cut and is the final say for everybody," Iran's Foreign Minister said.

 

Top of the agenda items of Saudi-US talks

According to Saudi Gazette, US President Joe Biden is scheduled to start an official visit of Saudi Arabia on Friday for the first time since taking office in early 2021. The two-day visit comes at the invitation of King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud.

During the visit, Biden will meet King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman to discuss aspects of cooperation between the two friendly countries, and the ways to confront the challenges facing the region and the world.

The Saudi visit aims to further strengthen the historical bilateral relations and the distinguished strategic partnership between Saudi Arabia and United States, and the common desire to develop them in all fields.

On Saturday, Biden will attend the first Arab-American Summit of its kind, convened by King Salman. The summit will also be attended by the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, as well as the Jordanian King Abdullah II, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, and Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi. Biden will also hold meetings with these regional leaders before the summit.

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan announced on Wednesday that Biden will meet King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman during his visit to Saudi Arabia. Sullivan confirmed that a “bilateral program” will be held on Friday night, when Biden arrives, and will include King Salman, the Crown Prince and “other ministers in the Saudi government.”

Sullivan revealed that Biden will hold bilateral meetings with a number of regional leaders before the upcoming summit with them, and refused to answer a question about the sequencing of these meetings.

When asked to give an overview of what Biden will say at the GCC +3 Summit, Sullivan said, “President will give broad and strong statements and strategy about his approach to the Middle East.”

He also noted that Biden will discuss security, the economy, and America’s historic role in the region, and his commitment to moving forward with strong American leadership in the Middle East.

Analysts believe that the US president has realistically realized that it is time to break the deadlock in Saudi-US relations, as relations between the two countries were not good since the first day of Biden’s arrival at the White House. Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia and his upcoming summit in Jeddah are in the interests of the United States in the medium and strategic terms.

They added that the region has become more strategically important to America and the West, with the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which has entered its fifth month, and the failure of nuclear negotiations with Iran.

It is expected that Biden’s visit will witness signing of some military agreements between Washington and some of the Arab countries to ensure the security of the Arab region, in addition to discussing other vital issues, such as Yemen, Lebanon, Palestine, Libya and Sudan, as well as the security of the Arab region in general.

Analysts said that Biden will seek to clarify the American vision and reassure the Arab countries about the Iranian nuclear agreement, which cannot be predicted about what will happen around it, but there are Arab fears that America knows.

A few days ago, US State Department spokesman Ned Price confirmed his country’s readiness to return to the nuclear agreement, provided that Iran lived up to its commitments.

“If Iran does not respond to negotiations, the chances of reaching an agreement will decrease,” Price said, while stressing the need to return to the nuclear agreement before Tehran acquires a nuclear bomb.

Leaders of the ruling Democratic Party also confirmed that the visit of Biden implies the paramount significance that the American administration attaches to the region, especially in light of the global energy crisis, in addition to trying to fix what can be fixed, and repel the strife that has spread about an imbalance in the American-Saudi or Arab relations.

Iran is, of course, another big and fundamental question in the Middle East. Indeed, it is the question that almost all other questions relate to, from Iraq to Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Palestine. Biden’s declared policy toward Iran centered around the idea of ​​his administration’s desire to return to the nuclear agreement signed by the Obama administration where he held the position of vice president.

The agreement stipulated that Iran would be subject to monitoring its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, but no significant progress has been made since Biden took office, and negotiations between the United States, major powers and Iran stopped in Vienna months ago. However, it is interesting to note that a quick round of negotiations between Washington and Tehran took place in Doha prior to Biden’s visit.

It is true that the Doha negotiations did not bring about anything, but it came as a reminder that the door for dialogue between the two parties is still open, and the possibilities of returning to the agreement are still in place.

Biden’s visit to the Middle East that kicked off in Israel on Wednesday bears hopes of reuniting the countries of the region to confront common challenges, especially Iran’s nuclear program, which poses an existential threat to more than one country.

Biden’s visit provides an opportunity for convergence of views on other files, including oil supplies, in light of the Russian war on Ukraine. Questions are raised about the extent of this visit’s contribution to ‘forcing’ Tehran to review its rigid position in negotiations over its nuclear program and return to the agreement that concluded with international powers in 2015.

United States slaps new oil sanctions on Iran

 

The United States Department of Treasury this week imposed more oil and petrochemical industry sanctions on Iran amid stalled nuclear negotiations.

"While the United States is committed to achieving an agreement with Iran that seeks a mutual return to compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, we will continue to use all our authorities to enforce sanctions on the sale of Iranian petroleum and petrochemicals," said Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson.

In a news release, the Treasury said it would sanction an international network of companies and individuals involved in the marketing of Iranian crude oil and petroleum products in East Asia.

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said in a tweet that the US is imposing the sanctions "absent a commitment from Iran to return to the JCPOA."

The latest round of talks between Iran and the US facilitated by the European Union ended inconclusively last week, with participants saying they would resume soon.

Meanwhile, Iran has stepped up its demands on the US side, according to the US Special Envoy for Iran—demands that have nothing to do with the nuclear deal.

"They have, including in Doha, added demands that I think anyone looking at this would be viewed as having nothing to do with the nuclear deal, things that they've wanted in the past," Robert Malley told NPR this week.

"The discussion that really needs to take place right now is not so much between us and Iran, although we're prepared to have that it's between Iran and itself, that they need to come to a conclusion about whether they are now prepared to come back into compliance with the deal, if we're prepared to do the same, and we've said we are," the Special Envoy for Iran also said.

Iran's Foreign Minister, who led the latest talks with the EU, said, as quoted by Reuters, "We are prepared to resume talks in the coming days. What is important for Iran is to fully receive the economic benefits of the 2015 accord."

 

United States not keen in reviving Iran nuclear deal

The chances of reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal are worse after indirect United States-Iranian talks in Doha that ended without progress, a senior US official told Reuters.

"The prospects for a deal after Doha are worse than they were before Doha and they will be getting worse by the day," said the official on condition of anonymity.

"You could describe Doha at best as treading water, at worst as moving backwards. But at this point treading water is for all practical purposes moving backwards," he added.

The official would not go into the details of the Doha talks, during which European Union officials shuttled between the two sides trying to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement under which Iran had limited its nuclear program in return for relief from economic sanctions.

Then US President Donald Trump reneged on the agreement in 2018 and restored harsh US sanctions on Iran, prompting Tehran to start violating its nuclear restrictions about a year later.

"Their vague demands, reopening of settled issues, and requests clearly unrelated to the JCPOA all suggests to us ... that the real discussion that has to take place is (not) between Iran and the US to resolve remaining differences. It is between Iran and Iran to resolve the fundamental question about whether they are interested in a mutual return to the JCPOA," the senior US official said.

"At this point, we are not sure if they (the Iranians) know what more they want. They didn’t come to Doha with many specifics," he added. "Most of what they raised they either knew - or should have known - was outside the scope of the JCPOA and thus completely unsellable to us and to the Europeans, or were issues that had been thoroughly debated and resolved in Vienna and that we were clearly not going to reopen."

Speaking at the UN Security Council, US, British and French diplomats all placed the onus on Iran for the failure to revive the agreement after more than a year of negotiations.

Iran, however, characterized the Doha talks as positive and blamed the United States for failing to provide guarantees that a new US administration would not again abandon the deal as Trump had done.

"Iran has demanded verifiable and objective guarantees from the US that JCPOA will not be torpedoed again, that the US will not violate its obligations again, and that sanctions will not be re-imposed under other pretexts or designations," Iran's UN Ambassador Majid Takht Ravanchi told the council.

The senior US official said Washington had made clear since the talks began in April 2021 that it could not give Iran legal guarantees that a future US administration would stick to the deal.

"We said there is no legal way we can bind a future administration, and so we looked for other ways to give some form of comfort to Iran and … we - along with all of the other P5+1 (nations) and the EU coordinator - thought that file had been closed," the senior US official added.

Iran struck the original deal with Britain, China, France, Russia, the United States and Germany, a group called the P5+1.

The senior US official disputed Tehran's argument that Washington was to blame for the lack of progress, saying the United States had responded positively to proposed EU changes to the draft text of an agreement reached during wider talks in March while Iran had failed to respond to those proposals.

If the deal is not revived, he said "the Iranian leadership would need to explain why it turned its back on the benefits of the deal for the sake of issues that wouldn't make a positive difference in the life of a single ordinary Iranian."

The US official did not detail those issues. Restoring the deal would allow Iran to legally export its oil - the life blood of its economy.

Qatar to host Iran United States talks on reviving 2015 nuclear deal

According to a Reuters report, Qatar will host indirect talks between Iran and the United States in coming days. Iranian media also reported on Monday that amid a push by the European Union to break a months-long impasse in negotiations to reinstate a 2015 nuclear pact.

"Iran has chosen Qatar to host the talks because of Doha's friendly ties with Tehran," Mohammad Marandi, a media adviser to Iran's top nuclear negotiator, told the ISNA news agency.

A source briefed on the visit said that US Special Envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, was expected to arrive in Doha on Monday and meet with the Qatari foreign minister. An Iranian official told Reuters that Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, would be in Doha for the talks on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Iran's foreign ministry was not immediately available for comment and the Qatari government didn’t comment. Later, however, Iran's Tasnim news agency cited a source at Iran's foreign ministry as saying that "Bagheri will travel to Doha on Tuesday".

The pact appeared close to being secured in March when the European Union invited foreign ministers representing the accord's parties to Vienna to finalize an agreement after 11 months of indirect talks between Tehran and President Joe Biden's administration.

But the talks have since been suspended, chiefly over Tehran's insistence that Washington remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), its elite security force, from the US Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list.

Last week, one Iranian and one European official told Reuters that Iran had dropped its demand for the removal of the IRGC's FTO sanctions, but still two issues, including one on sanctions, remained to be resolved.

"Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed," Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Saeed Khatibzadeh, said on Monday.

The 2015 nuclear pact imposed restrictions on Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions. Then-President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the deal in 2018, reimposing tough economic sanctions on Tehran.

Iran's clerical establishment responded by breaching the pact's nuclear restrictions, including a 3.67% cap on the level to which it could purify uranium and a 202.8-kg limit on its enriched uranium stock.

Israel takes aim at ruining Iran Turkey ties

In the recent past, Israel has launched an all-out media campaign against Iran that included bizarre claims of Iranian threats against ordinary tourists in neighboring Turkey. 

Israeli media and officials first issued warnings of imminent alleged threats from Iran to Israeli tourists in Turkey and then claimed that several attacks were foiled as a result of Turkish-Israeli security cooperation.

“The operational efforts with the Turkish security forces have borne fruit,” Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett claimed.  “In recent days, in a joint Israeli-Turkish effort, we thwarted a number of attacks and a number of terrorists were arrested on Turkish soil.”

Neither Bennett nor other Israeli officials have offered any kind of evidence to support their claims.

The string of warnings began last week when several Israeli officials alleged that there were concrete threats that Iran was allegedly trying to target Israelis in Istanbul over the weekend, and urged all Israeli citizens to leave Turkey immediately.

Iran has officially responded to Israeli hyperboles. Iran believes that Israel is openly spreading lies unworthy of a response.

Nour News, a news outlet close to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said Iran is determined to avenge the assassination of Colonel Sayad Khodaei but it’ll not target innocent people. 

“Given the past experiences, Israel is well aware of the certainty of Iran’s response to this regime’s mischief and terrorist moves such as the martyrdom of Sayad Khodaei,” Nour News said, adding, “The officials of this regime also know that the Islamic Republic of Iran will not punish innocent individuals when taking vengeance on the Zionist government’s crimes.”

The outlet said the leaders of Israel know that only the perpetrators and those who issued orders will be punished. This is why Israeli officials seek to mobilize the public with unfounded claims to increase the cost of Iran’s revenge, according to Nour News. 

The Israeli claims are intended to achieve another goal. According to Nour News, Israeli officials want to pitch Turkey and Iran against each other through unfounded claims. This is while the Iranian and Turkish foreign ministers have recently spoken over the phone and discussed ways to boost bilateral ties. 

This month, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu spoke over the phone twice in less than a week. In the first call, they discussed the latest developments in bilateral relations, according to the Iranian foreign ministry.

Amir Abdollahian stressed the need to keep up the consultations between the two countries and promote cooperation, especially in bilateral trade and consular issues. The top Turkish diplomat invited his Iranian counterpart to visit Ankara for talks on issues of mutual interest in the near future.

In the second call, Cavusoglu once again extended an invitation to Amir Abdollahian to visit Turkey and expressed hope that continued negotiations between the officials of the two countries will help boost bilateral ties and increase their cooperation.

Amir Abdollahian reaffirmed Tehran’s determination to boost ties with Turkey more than ever before. The top Iranian diplomat also expressed hope that the two sides will hold more consultations over the matter.

The Israeli claims come against a backdrop of broader tensions between Iran and Israel. Israeli officials have ramped up their threats against Iran and, recently, even boasted about taking the battle into Iran. Bennett and other Israeli officials are now talking of ‘Octopus Doctrine’ a new strategy allegedly aimed at dealing with Iran directly instead of countering its allies in the West Asia region.

“The past year has been a year of changing course in Israel’s strategy vis-à-vis Iran,” Bennett said on June 7 at a meeting of the parliamentary defense and foreign affairs committee, according to the New York Times. “We have shifted into a higher gear. We are acting at all times and places, and we will continue to do so.”

Iran has said it will respond to Israeli provocative measures. Amir Abdollahian has recently said Israel must stop its provocative and hostile behavior.

In late May, IRGC chief Major General Hossein Salami vowed revenge for Sayyad Khodaei. He blamed the assassination of Khodaei on Israel, underlining that Iran will avenge his killing.

 

Iran likely to turn off all cameras beyond Safeguards agreement

Chief of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) announced on Thursday night that Iran has turned off a number of IAEA cameras which were monitoring Iran’s nuclear activities beyond the Safeguards agreement and plans to turn off the rest soon.

“We ended the activities of a number of these cameras and we will do the rest tonight and tomorrow,” Mohammad Eslami told the national TV.

The cameras that have been removed or are being removed were installed voluntarily. Their activity fell outside the scope of the Safeguards agreement of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Iran embarked on removing such cameras in response to a resolution by the IAEA Board of Governors against Iran late on Wednesday.

The resolution, proposed by the United States and the European trio ‑ Germany, France and Britain ‑  was approved by the IAEA’s 35-nation board with 30 votes in favor, two against and three abstentions. Russia and China voted against the resolution and India, Libya and Pakistan abstained.

The resolution was drafted on the basis of a report by IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi in which it was claimed Iran had refused to provide answers to traces of uranium enrichment found at three undeclared sites. This is while Iran had provided answers to the IAEA about these alleged sites, which finally led to the conclusion of the 2015 nuclear agreement, officially called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Questions about the alleged nuclear sites, which were referred to as possible military dimensions (PMD), were answered and the issue closed.

“You closed all these allegations and charges within the PMD…. And now you have come and say you want to return to the JCPOA. Okay, return to the JCPOA but why do you reopen the closed package which form the essence of the JCPOA?” Eslami asked.

Prior to the debate on Iran’s nuclear program at the IAEA board, Grossi had visited Tel Aviv for talks with Israeli officials, a move which put in serious question Grossi’s neutrality and professionalism by the Agency under his leadership.

Eslami went on to say that the IAEA, based on its articles 2 and 3, is tasked to transfer nuclear technology to NPT signatories for civilian uses but the reality is that the IAEA is “a pawn of the Zionists”.

It is widely believed that these alleged nuclear sites have been raised by Israel through bogus documents.

“It is regretful that an international institution is exploited in such a way by a fake regime and puts its credibility in question,” the AEOI chief lamented.

Israel, which has been launching an intensive campaign against Iran’s nuclear program for about two decades, has not signed the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has about 90 nuclear weapons. It also played a key role in provoking the Trump administration to quit the JCPOA, which was the product of 12 years of negotiations.

The nuclear chief went on to say that all the commitments made by Iran under the JCPOA was beyond the Safeguards agreement and were chiefly intended to create confidence about Tehran’s nuclear activities.

“Why has the Islamic Republic accepted to limit itself and be under more intensive surveillance and control by the Agency for a rather long term? It was just because it wanted to get rid of these accusations and build trust,” he explained.

However, Eslami added, this good intention which was shown in the negotiations and the JCPOA is not being considered at all by the IAEA, including its Director Grossi.

There is no will by Grossi to become convinced of Iran’s answers and this shows that he is a hostage to Israelis and that he has adopted a political behavior toward Iran.

 

Should Iran accept US offer to export crude oil?

According to a Bloomberg report United States is considering allowing Iran to export limited quantity of crude oil. This would be the second temporary suspension of sanction, after allowing Venezuela to export oil. This could be termed ‘the most selfish decision of the US administration’.

It is anticipated that this decision is being made to bring down global oil prices. However, some critics say it is only to avoid defeat in the upcoming elections. The US administration has millions of barrels of strategic reserves and prices could be brought down within hours of the announcement of release of oil from these reserve.

In all sincerity, Iran must not accept this offer until the US removes all the sanctions. If Iran could endure sanctions for more than four decades, even during COVID pandemic the US should also pay high price for initiating proxy war in Ukraine.

United States and European Union were perfectly aware of the consequences of imposing sanctions on Russia and stopping purchase of oil and gas. Still they kept on dumping lethal arms in Ukraine rather than facilitating ceasefire.

It is the most appropriate time to teach a lesson to United States that its atrocities can’t be continued for indefinite period. The US was successful in stopping oil supplies from Iran, Iraq, Libya and Venezuela, but stopping sale of Russian oil and gas was not just possible.

To conclude it may be said that United States has lost war in Ukraine despite sending tons of lethal arms and injecting trillions of dollars.

OPEC must also not increase output in July and August and let United States get a taste how sanctions bites a country, which has imposed sanctions on dozens of countries.

Iranian immunity over, Israeli Prime Minister

In a hint to possible Israeli involvement in the recent assassination of an Iranian military officer, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Sunday that Iran would not go unpunished for instigating attacks through its proxies. 

IRGC Colonel Hassan Sayad Khodai was shot dead last week while sitting in his car and by two people on a motorcycle. The tactic echoed previous killings in Iran that focused on nuclear scientists and were widely pinned on Mossad.

"For many years, the Iranian regime has carried out terrorism against Israel and the region via proxies but for some reason the head of the octopus – Iran itself – has enjoyed immunity," Bennett said at the start of the weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem.  "As we have said more than once, the era of immunity for the Iranian regime is over." 

"Those who finance terrorists, those who arm terrorists, and those who send terrorists – will pay the full price," he added.

In another attack on Thursday, an Iranian engineer was killed in an explosion said to have been caused by drones carrying explosives at the Parchin military base, where Iran has allegedly conducted nuclear weapons tests in the past. 

Israel has been on high alert over the last week amid concern that Iran will try to retaliate for Khodai's death. On Saturday, Iran revealed images from an underground secret drone base that it operates, amid simmering tensions in the Gulf.  State TV said 100 drones were being kept in the heart of the Zagros Mountains, including Ababil-5, which it said were fitted with Qaem-9 missiles, an Iranian-made version of air-to-surface US Hellfire.

At the government meeting Bennett recalled a story published last week in the Wall Street Journal claiming that a cache of 100,000 documents Israel spirited out of Tehran in 2018 included evidence that the Islamic Republic had used reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency to hide its former nuclear program.

"Iran has also been investing in lies such as its deliberate misleading of the IAEA in order to evade visits by the agency, as was revealed last week. The Iranian regime is based on tyranny, terror and lies," Bennett stated.

Bennett spoke in advance of a visit to Washington this week by an Israeli delegation led by National Security Adviser Eyal Hulata to discuss options should talks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal fail. 

They are also likely to discuss the upcoming IAEA Board of Governors' Meeting in Vienna next week and the possibility of a resolution condemning Iran.