Drone attack on Iranian weapons factory termed phenomenal success

Despite Iranian claims, the drone attack on Iran at Isfahan was a tremendous success, according to a mix of Western intelligence sources and foreign sources, The Jerusalem Post initially reported on Sunday.

Several hours later, The Wall Street Journal came out with a similar report, stating that Israel and the Mossad were behind the attack, citing US officials.

There were four large explosions at the military industry factory, documented on social media, against a facility developing advanced weapons. The damage goes far beyond the minor roof damage that the Islamic Republic claimed earlier Sunday.

Iran's response matches responses to similar incidents. Iran’s foreign minister said the cowardly attack was aimed at creating insecurity in Iran. Their defense ministry said the explosion caused only minor damage and no casualties. The extent of the damage could not be independently confirmed.

Israel is playing mum, but most Western intelligence and Iranian sources have credited the Mossad with similarly successful attacks against Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility in July 2020, a different Natanz nuclear facility in April 2021, another nuclear facility at Karaj in June 2021 and with destroying around 120 or more Iranian drones in February 2022.

Few organizations globally, besides the Mossad, are believed to possess the advanced and surgical strike capabilities displayed in the operation.

Multiple large drones with significant amounts of explosives were involved and hit their targets with pinpoint accuracy.

In each of the prior incidents, Tehran tried initially to pretend that the attacks failed and only acknowledged the extent of the damage when satellite photos or other evidence broke into the public sphere, outflanking their denials.

It is still unclear whether the advanced weapons damaged related only to conventional warfare, or might have nuclear relevance, such as for use in ballistic missiles or explosives which can be used for both conventional and nuclear weapons.

Isfahan has been used on and off for various nuclear issues as well as non-nuclear military issues.

Iran even at one point told the IAEA that some of the nuclear activities being carried out at the Karaj nuclear facility until June 2021 had been moved to Isfahan.

The WSJ noted that there was an Iranian aerospace facility nearby, which could also be utilizing dual-use items for space launches and nuclear weapons, used for escaping and reentering Earth’s atmosphere.

Speculation centered on whether the attack was meant to set back Iran’s advanced drone program or a new program, such as the development of hypersonic missiles, with Russian help.

Hypersonic missiles fly so fast and have such advanced maneuverability that many experts believe they could penetrate all of Israel’s air defenses.

Another theme raised during the day was that the US and the CIA may have been involved this time.

Experts noted that the US and Israel just spent an entire week conducting military exercises around attacking targets, such as Iran, so carrying out such an attack immediately after these exercises could be meant to send a message as to their seriousness.

They estimated that the visit of CIA Director William Burns to Israel just before the attack was evidence of a need for a special face-to-face meeting between the CIA and Mossad chiefs preparing the attack.

The US has adopted a more aggressive tone with Iran since it provided drones to Russia in the war with Ukraine and has demonstrated even more impatience recently with Tehran’s failure to return to the 2015 nuclear deal.

 

Iran: Drones Attack Military Factory

A loud explosion was heard at a military industry factory near Iran's central city of Isfahan. Tehran said it was a drone strike by unidentified attackers.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack, which came amid tension with the West over Tehran's nuclear work and supply of arms for Russia's war in Ukraine, as well as months of anti-government demonstrations at home.

The extent of the damage could not be independently confirmed. Iran's Defence Ministry said the explosion caused only minor damage and no casualties.

Iranian media video showed a flash of light at the plant, which the official IRNA news agency described as an ammunitions factory. Footage showed emergency vehicles and fire trucks outside the complex.

"Around 2000 GMT on Saturday night, an unsuccessful attack was carried out using micro Aerial Vehicles (MAVs) on one of the ministry's workshop sites," the Defence Ministry said in a statement carried by Iran's state TV.

It said one drone was shot down and the other two were caught in defence traps and blown up. It caused only minor damage to the roof of a workshop building. There were no casualties."

The attack has not affected our installations and mission...and such blind measures will not have an impact on the continuation of the country's progress.

Separately, IRNA reported early on Sunday a massive fire at a motor oil factory in an industrial zone near the northwestern city of Tabriz. It gave no information about the cause of that blaze.

Iran has in the past accused its arch enemy Israel of planning attacks using agents inside Iranian territory. In July 2022, Tehran said it had arrested a sabotage team made up of Kurdish militants working for Israel who planned to blow up a sensitive defence industry centre in Isfahan.

An Israeli military spokesperson declined comment when asked if Israel had a connection to the latest incident. Israel has long said it could attack Iran if diplomacy fails to curb Tehran's nuclear or missile programs, but has a policy of withholding comment on specific incidents.

Several Iranian nuclear sites are located in Isfahan province, including Natanz, centre piece of Iran’s uranium enrichment program, which Iran accuses Israel of sabotaging in 2021. There have been a number of explosions and fires around Iranian military, nuclear and industrial facilities in recent years.

Talks between Tehran and world powers to revive a 2015 nuclear pact have stalled since September 2022. Under the pact, abandoned by Washington under President Donald Trump, Iran agreed to limit nuclear work in return for easing of sanctions.

Iran has acknowledged sending drones to Russia but says they were sent before Moscow's invasion of Ukraine last year. Moscow denies its forces use Iranian drones in Ukraine, although many have been shot down and recovered there.