LNG trade faces unprecedented times

According to Seatrade Maritime News, LNG shipping is seeing exceptional strength, already fueled by geopolitical vagaries, and with the impact of winter weather patterns yet to be determined.

The sector received considerable emphasis at Marine Money’s mid-November Ship Finance Forum, held in midtown New York.

Mike Tusiani, Poten & Partner’s Chairman Emeritus, in introducing the day’s kick-off panel, described the present situation as an unprecedented time in the LNG trades.

His colleague at Poten, Jefferson Clarke, talked about “ton time” having supplanted ton miles as the operative metric in explaining LNG shipping’s rise.

He said that commodity prices are driving the flows of LNG; in short, it gives the incentive for charterers to hold on to tonnage…and not get access to tonnage.

He explained that vessel charterers have been moving vigorously into the term market, and explicitly linked high LNG prices with demand for term charters.

Though media headlines within the mainstream and trade press have pointed to charter hires for high end LNG carriers at US$400,000 per day or more, spot fixtures are actually few and far between.

Oystein Kalleklev, CEO of Flex LNG said, after reviewing fixture lists, that he could only find two spot fixtures done in November.

On a shipowner panel later in the day, Kalleklev opined that LNG shipping is like a liner trade in contrast to more spot-oriented commodity sectors, including VLGC/ LPG transporter Avance Gas, where he is Executive Chairman.

On that same panel, he described the FLNG strategy, if he were taking delivery of a hypothetical new vessel, as “fix it out, finance it, and pay a hell of a lot of dividends.”

He described one year time charters as being in the US$200,000 per day range with three-year deals drawing around US$170,000 per day but added that there will be volatility.

In the earlier panel, he indicated a preference for a strategy of fixing FLNG’s vessels on term business when they come off existing charters, rather than expanding the fleet with expensive newbuilds.

Kalleklev attributed strength in the markets to waiting and delays, which effectively reduce available supply, in explaining the market’s dynamics. In LNG trades, he explained that “ton time has mitigated the downturn in ton miles.

People are waiting more, people are deploying floating storage. One component of the potential volatility awaiting market participants this time around might be unwinding of such storage if the present contango structure LNG pricing was to flatten out.

He noted that a precipitous market fall in late 2018 had been brought about by a previous instance of floating storage being unwound.

 

 

 

Iran ready to release millions of barrels of oil

Iran has considerable volumes of oil in floating storage that it could quickly release should a deal with the United States be finalized.

In an update earlier this month, OilX claimed that Iran has some 40 million barrels, the bulk of which is probably condensate.

Vortexa estimates Iranian crude in floating storage at 60 million to 70 million barrels, while Kpler has estimated these at 93 million barrels, Bloomberg reported lately.

The volumes would not be released immediately, however, as issues such as insurance and shipping would need to be dealt with first.

“Iran has built up a sizable flotilla of cargoes that could hit the market fairly soon,” John Driscoll from JTD Energy Services told Bloomberg.

Currently, Iran and the United States are both considering the final version of an agreement proposed by the European Union, which is acting as an intermediary in the negotiations.

According to recent reports, some of the problems have been straightened out but others still remain and need to get resolved before a deal is finalized.

Israel’s Haaretz reported that it had seen a copy of the draft proposal, which involves the release of prisoners from Iran and, in exchange, the release of Iranian funds from international bank accounts.

Iran will be free to keep the uranium it had enriched so far but banned from violating the nuclear deal, the Israeli daily wrote.

A nuclear deal would mean the return of Iranian crude to international markets, at a rate of some 1.3 million bpd, according to a recent Financial Times report. This would substantially lower oil prices, at least for a while.

Iran is eager to boost its exports of crude but it has signaled it would not rush into a deal until its last remaining demands are made. Chief among them is a guarantee that the deal would survive during future US administrations.

One may recall, Managing Director of National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) has said the country’s oil production capacity is going to increase by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 4.038 million by the end of the current Iranian calendar year (March 20, 2023). The official put the Islamic Republic’s current oil production capacity at 3.838 million bpd.

“With the measures taken, Iran's oil production capacity will increase to 4.038 million barrels per day by the end of this year,” Mohsen Khojasteh-Mehr had told IRNA.

Pointing to the increase in the country’s oil exports over the past 12 months since the 13th government has taken office, the Deputy Oil Minister said: “Considering the increase in oil production capacity, it is possible to increase our exports if demand in global markets increases.”

Khojasteh-Mehr noted that the above-mentioned figure is the country’s optimal capacity and whenever the international conditions are more open, Iran will be ready to significantly increase exports and return to the world markets with maximum power.

In early April, Oil Minister Javad Oji had said that the country’s crude oil production has reached the pre-sanction level.

Saying that the current capacity of Iran’s oil production has reached more than 3.8 million bpd, the minister said, “We hope that through the efforts of all those active in this sector, we will reach higher figures in the exports of crude oil, gas condensate, oil products, and petrochemicals in the current Iranian calendar year.

“By taking effective measures in onshore and offshore oil fields, drilling new wells, repairing wells, rebuilding and modernizing facilities, and oil collection centers, the current oil production capacity has reached before the sanctions, and we have no problem in performance and this amount of production”, Oji added.