In an update earlier this month, OilX claimed that Iran has some 40 million barrels, the bulk of which is probably condensate.
Vortexa estimates Iranian crude in floating storage at 60 million to 70 million barrels, while Kpler has estimated these at 93 million barrels, Bloomberg reported lately.
The volumes would not be released immediately, however, as issues such as insurance and shipping would need to be dealt with first.
“Iran has built up a sizable flotilla of cargoes that could hit the market fairly soon,” John Driscoll from JTD Energy Services told Bloomberg.
Currently, Iran and the United States are both considering the final version of an agreement proposed by the European Union, which is acting as an intermediary in the negotiations.
According to recent reports, some of the problems have been straightened out but others still remain and need to get resolved before a deal is finalized.
Israel’s Haaretz reported that it had seen a copy of the draft proposal, which involves the release of prisoners from Iran and, in exchange, the release of Iranian funds from international bank accounts.
Iran will be free to keep the uranium it had enriched so far but banned from violating the nuclear deal, the Israeli daily wrote.
A nuclear deal would mean the return of Iranian crude to international markets, at a rate of some 1.3 million bpd, according to a recent Financial Times report. This would substantially lower oil prices, at least for a while.
Iran is eager to boost its exports of crude but it has signaled it would not rush into a deal until its last remaining demands are made. Chief among them is a guarantee that the deal would survive during future US administrations.
One may recall, Managing Director of National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) has said the country’s oil production capacity is going to increase by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 4.038 million by the end of the current Iranian calendar year (March 20, 2023). The official put the Islamic Republic’s current oil production capacity at 3.838 million bpd.
“With the measures taken, Iran's oil production capacity will increase to 4.038 million barrels per day by the end of this year,” Mohsen Khojasteh-Mehr had told IRNA.
Pointing to the increase in the country’s oil exports over the past 12 months since the 13th government has taken office, the Deputy Oil Minister said: “Considering the increase in oil production capacity, it is possible to increase our exports if demand in global markets increases.”
Khojasteh-Mehr noted that the above-mentioned figure is the country’s optimal capacity and whenever the international conditions are more open, Iran will be ready to significantly increase exports and return to the world markets with maximum power.
In early April, Oil Minister Javad Oji had said that the country’s crude oil production has reached the pre-sanction level.
Saying that the current capacity of Iran’s oil production has reached more than 3.8 million bpd, the minister said, “We hope that through the efforts of all those active in this sector, we will reach higher figures in the exports of crude oil, gas condensate, oil products, and petrochemicals in the current Iranian calendar year.
“By taking effective measures in onshore and offshore oil fields, drilling new wells, repairing wells, rebuilding and modernizing facilities, and oil collection centers, the current oil production capacity has reached before the sanctions, and we have no problem in performance and this amount of production”, Oji added.
