US narrative on the removal of Ali Shamkhani

After a decade surviving Iran’s fractious politics, Ali Shamkhani was removed as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), the highest body in charge of foreign policy and national security, on May 22, 2023.

The former rear admiral, a young hero during the eight-year Iran-Iraq war who rose to become minister of defense in the 1990s, had served three presidents from rival factions as head of the SNSC. He was pushed aside in favor of Rear Admiral Ali Akbar Ahmadian, a senior Revolutionary Guards officer.

The reshuffling, which followed the execution in January of a former Shamkhani aide charged with treason, could significantly impact deliberations at the SNSC, which has only 12 permanent members.

“Shamkhani is considered a balancing factor in the decision-making process in Tehran,” Danny Citrinowicz, a fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, told The Iran Primer.

Shamkhani was widely regarded to be pragmatic on contested issues, such as negotiations with the United States over Iran’s nuclear program. He was a moderate voice who called for discussions and dialogue, Alicia Kearns, British House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee chair, told the BBC in January 2023.

Shamkhani has long been the most senior ethnic Arab in Iran’s government, largely dominated by Persians and other groups. He earned the trust of officials ranging from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a hardliner, to President Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005), a reformist, due to his years of distinguished service in both the IRGC and the conventional military.

Shamkhani’s nearly 10-year term as SNSC secretary, from 2013 to 2023, was second only to Hassan Rouhani, who served in the position from 1989 to 2005. Shamkhani has been a survivor in a regime that has increasingly purged reformists, centrists and even some conservatives.  

Shamkhani has political enemies. For years, critics have charged him and members of his family, including his sons and son-in-law, of corruption and amassed wealth through shipping and construction companies.

In November 2022, Shamkhani reportedly faced criticism from hardliners for failing to quash the nationwide protests that erupted in September 2022.

In January 2023, Iran executed Alireza Akbari, who served as Shamkhani’s deputy from 2000 to 2004. Akbari was convicted of spying for Britain and corruption on earth. The execution triggered media speculation about Shamkhani's fate. IRGC-linked media reported that he might step down, but a news agency linked to the SNSC denied the reports.

Shamkhani’s last major accomplishment was helping to broker Iran’s rapprochement with regional rival Saudi Arabia. In March 2023, he led a delegation to Beijing for talks with the Sunni kingdom. The two countries agreed to restore diplomatic ties seven years after severing relations.

Shamkhani appeared to foreshadow the end of his term with a cryptic tweet on May 21. He quoted a 16th-century poem that Iranian media took as a sign of his imminent removal.

On May 22, President Raisi appointed Ali Akbar Ahmadian, an IRGC commander, to replace Shamkhani. Supreme Leader Khamenei then selected Ahmadian as his representative on the SNSC, which indicated his approval.

“I would like to thank and appreciate Ali Shamkhani's responsible, persistent presence and his efforts as the leader’s representative during these years,” Khamenei wrote in a decree.

Khamenei named Shamkhani his political advisor. “In light of the closeness between the two and the degree of Khamenei's trust in Shamkhani, he will likely continue to play a significant role in the decision-making process in Tehran,” according to Citrinowicz, who headed the Iran branch of Israel Defense Intelligence’s Research and Analysis Division. “Shamkhani has a great deal of knowledge and experience, with an emphasis on the nuclear issue.”

Khamenei also appointed Shamkhani as member of the Expediency Council, a body that resolves constitutional disputes between the Parliament and the Guardian Council. The body, which includes some three dozen members, has often included officials who have fallen out of favor. So the role could be largely ceremonial.

 

Iran: New Face of National Security

After ten years, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Ali Shamkhani was replaced with Ali Akbar Ahmadian, a veteran Islamic Revolution Guards Corps commander who is set to transform the security body.

Rumors surrounding Shamkhani’s departure first came to the surface in January this year, when one of his close associates was put to death over espionage for the MI6. Nevertheless, Shamkhani remained in his post and continued to make the headlines by orchestrating a thaw in Iran-Saudi relations. Over the course of his tenure as a top security official, Shamkhani coordinated a lot of national security decisions ranging from nuclear talks to internal developments.

He is now being replaced with a hard-nosed IRGC general whose career within the IRGC is distinguished by strategizing and strategic planning. Ali Akbar Ahmadian is a quiet, cagey and taciturn general whose actions speak louder than words.

A dentist-turned-general, Ahmadian served in various positions in the IRGC and rose through the ranks to become the mastermind of many IRGC initiatives and policies. His entire career in the IRGC is characterized by leadership and strategic planning. The heady days of his youth coincided with the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, which left a formative impact on his career as a navy admiral. During the war, he participated in many operations, including at sea. In some cases, he personally played a role in some maritime retaliatory operations, an experience that he would use to develop strategies for reciprocal operations in the IRGC Navy.

After the war, he was appointed as the deputy commander of the IRGC Navy. In this position, he theorized the maritime experience of the war in countering the aggressions of the US. In a sense, he is seen as the main architect of the IRGC Navy.

Also, he is one of the masterminds who developed the asymmetric warfare doctrine, which he put into practice when he later became the chief commander of the IRGC Navy.

In addition, Ahmadian reshuffled the IRGC during this later tenure as the chief of the force’s joint staff. In this position, he put the IRGC’s house in order administratively, something that earned him the approbation of Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, the Leader of the Islamic Revolution. Five years later, the entire IRGC entered a new administrative stage under the supervision of Ahmadian.

At the same time, Ahmadian was appointed as the commander of the IRGC’s Imam Hossein University, which played a great role in providing the force with the qualified cadets.

The new security chief has obtained a PhD degree in strategic management from the National Defense University. In September last year, Ayatollah Khamenei appointed him as a member of the Expediency Council.

Ahmadian is taking up the reins of Iran’s national security at a time when the country is navigating through sensitive issues at home and abroad. These issues range from Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, and Saudi Arabia to the now defunct 2015 Iran deal, which is formally called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Shamkhani handled some of these issues. He played a key role in paving the way for Tehran and Riyadh to sign a Chinese-brokered deal in Beijing on March 10 this year. The deal restored the Iran-Saudi diplomatic relations after seven years.

Shamkhani has held the position since September 2013. Since then, he has been overseeing major cases ranging from the nuclear talks to regional negotiations with Iran’s Arab neighbors.

In his recent weeks at the SNSC, Shamkhani highlighted the shift in the world order from unipolar to multipolar.

“We are now at a critically historical juncture, and a change in the world order is accordingly of paramount importance. The new world order and mechanisms to approach it would prompt us to review our macro policies,” he underlined.

The comments were delivered by Shamkhani in Tehran at the “New World Order Geometry” conference’s closing ceremony, which was held earlier in May 2023.

He stated that the opportunities and challenges of the new world order rely on how nations behave and prepare for such changes.

Shamkhani also remarked that the new world order may either present big and bright chances or pose threats and dangers.

“We must prepare ourselves and increase our resilience for global transformations,” he noted.

Shamkhani also emphasized the need of preparing for the conditions brought about by the new world order and the changes that follow, adding that being prepared for such developments will allow one to make the most of the new world order.