Pakistan Likely to Pay the Cost of Following Trump

The humiliating failure of President Donald Trump’s doctrine of maximum pressure on Iran may have far-reaching consequences for Pakistan. Islamabad, having invested considerable diplomatic capital in facilitating Washington’s regional agenda, could find itself facing a difficult geopolitical and economic situation. Pakistan’s perceived alignment with US foreign policy has created serious challenges for its regional standing.

First, Islamabad risks further distancing itself from three countries with which it shares common borders. A foreign policy perceived as serving Washington’s interests rather than Pakistan’s national priorities could undermine its relationships with neighbouring states.

Second, Pakistan’s emergence as a key mediator between Washington and Tehran may lose its relevance. If the United States fails to achieve its strategic objectives, Islamabad’s diplomatic importance could diminish. Consequently, the political goodwill and economic concessions anticipated from Washington may not materialize.

Third, Pakistan may face a cold shoulder from China and Russia. Both countries have strategic interests in the region that are not necessarily compatible with Washington’s objectives. Islamabad cannot afford to jeopardize its longstanding relationships with these major powers in pursuit of uncertain American benefits.

Fourth, relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member countries could become less cordial. Although Pakistan maintains longstanding security and economic ties with Arab states, its perceived association with an unsuccessful US strategy may complicate regional diplomacy.

Fifth, Pakistan could face difficulties securing concessional loans, financial assistance and rollover facilities from its Arab brotherly countries. Given its persistent dependence on external financing, even a modest reduction in financial support could create substantial economic pressure.

Finally, the proposed US$10 billion exchange stabilization facility could remain elusive. If Washington decides to withhold the proposed support, Pakistan may discover that diplomatic alignment does not necessarily translate into financial rewards.

The fundamental question is whether Pakistan has adequately assessed the cost of its foreign-policy choices. A country surrounded by complex geopolitical realities cannot afford to place its strategic interests in a single basket.

Pakistan must urgently revisit its foreign policy, prioritizing national interests, regional stability and economic sovereignty over expectations of political patronage from Washington.

Diplomatic relevance is valuable, but it must not come at the expense of strategic independence.