India: Dream of regional power threatened

India's 2024 general elections have marked a significant shift in the country's political landscape. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, saw a decline in its dominance, could secure only 240 of 543 seats in the lower house, a drop from 303 seats in 2019. Despite this, Modi managed to secure a third term as prime minister, thanks to the support from allies within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which together hold 293 seats.

The Indian National Congress, previously nearing political irrelevance, made a strong comeback, winning 99 seats, almost doubling its previous count of 52. The coalition of parties known as INDIA, allied with Congress, now controls 234 seats. This resurgence indicates a significant shift in voter sentiment, away from the BJP's Hindu nationalist ideology.

The BJP's decline is notable even in its traditional strongholds like Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, where it suffered substantial losses.

Several factors contributed to the BJP's reduced appeal:

Despite Modi's efforts to energize his base by inaugurating a controversial temple, the party's Hindu nationalist message failed to resonate as strongly as before.

Economic issues played a crucial role; the benefits of India's impressive 8% annual economic growth have not reached the average citizen, leading to widespread dissatisfaction.

Inflation and unemployment remained significant concerns, with a large portion of the population living near or below the poverty line.

Modi's leadership, previously seen as a unifying force capable of driving reforms and attracting foreign investment, now faces challenges due to the political uncertainty introduced by the election results.

The necessity for the BJP to rely on coalition partners complicates its ability to enact policy changes and maintain stability.

This political fragmentation could deter international businesses and investors, who had hoped India, would serve as a viable alternative to China.

The elections have underscored the limitations of ideology as political capital for the BJP. Voters have expressed their concerns over the party's religious nationalism and its impact on the country's stability and security, prioritizing economic issues over ideological ones.

BJP will have to navigate the complex task of balancing governance with its ideological commitments, a challenge made more difficult by its weakened parliamentary position.

This new political reality suggests a return to coalition governance, potentially hampering India's aspirations on the global stage.