United States losing grip over Middle East

The events of October 07, 2023, marked a significant turning point for both Israel and the Arab world. The attack by Hamas has initiated a new era in regional dynamics. In the years leading up to this, four Arab League members—Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates—had begun normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel. As of late 2023, Saudi Arabia was also considering a similar move.

However, the attack by Hamas and Israel’s subsequent military action in Gaza has halted progress toward normalization. Saudi Arabia announced it would not proceed with normalization until Israel takes steps toward establishing a Palestinian state. Additionally, Jordan recalled its ambassador to Israel, and a planned visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Morocco was canceled.

Arab leaders are increasingly concerned as public opposition to the war in Gaza grows. Protests have erupted in many Arab countries, with demonstrators in Jordan and Morocco demanding the end of their countries' peace treaties with Israel. This public sentiment highlights frustration over perceived government inaction.

October 07 may also prove pivotal for the United States. The Gaza conflict has significantly damaged Arab public opinion of the US, complicating its efforts to resolve the Gaza crisis, manage Iran, and counter China's influence in the Middle East.

Arab Barometer’s surveys reveal a significant drop in favorable views of the US across the Arab world, reversing a trend of improved opinions seen up to 2022. In contrast, views of China have improved, driven by dissatisfaction with US policies rather than specific approval of Chinese actions regarding Gaza.

For US leaders, resolving the Gaza conflict and fostering a permanent Israeli-Palestinian settlement are crucial. Additionally, securing the Red Sea and building a regional alliance to counter Iran and limit China’s influence are key objectives. However, achieving these goals requires the cooperation of Arab states, which is difficult with the current level of public skepticism toward the US.

The belief that Arab leaders are indifferent to public opinion is a misconception. The Arab Spring and subsequent protests have shown that public sentiment can influence leadership changes. Hence, US policymakers must consider Arab public opinion to effectively engage with the region.

Surveys indicate that Arab skepticism towards the US can be reversed through policy changes. Measures such as advocating for a ceasefire in Gaza, increasing humanitarian aid, and supporting a two-state solution could improve perceptions of the US. Ultimately, demonstrating concern for Palestinian suffering as much as for Israeli suffering is crucial for the US to regain trust among Arab citizens.