Russia becomes top gas supplier to Europe

According to some cynical views, the Ukraine war, allegedly orchestrated by Victoria Nuland and deep state energy interests, aimed to replace Russia with the United States as Europe's primary gas supplier. The sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline seemed to support this theory. However, this effort appears to have failed.

In May 2024, Europe’s gas imports from Russia once again surpassed those from the US for the first time in nearly two years, despite Europe’s attempts to reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels since the Ukraine invasion. Factors contributing to this include eastern European countries relying on Russian imports and others bypassing sanctions for cheaper energy.

“It’s striking to see the market share of Russian gas and LNG inch higher in Europe after all we have been through,” said Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at consultancy ICIS. Despite efforts to decouple, Europe remains reliant on Moscow for energy.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow cut its pipeline gas supplies to Europe, leading the region to increase LNG imports, primarily from the US. By September 2022, the US became Europe’s leading gas supplier, contributing about a fifth of the region’s supply by 2023.

In May 2024, Russian-piped gas and LNG accounted for 15% of the total supply to the EU, UK, Switzerland, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia, while US LNG accounted for 14%, its lowest since August 2022.

The reversal in supply was influenced by factors such as an outage at a major US LNG export facility and increased Russian gas sent through Turkey. European demand for gas also remains weak, with storage levels high for this time of year. Some, like Marzec-Manser, believe this shift is temporary, expecting Russia to redirect LNG to Asia via the Northern Sea Route and US LNG production to rise.

The transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia ends this year, risking future gas flows. The European Commission supports expanding pipelines in the Southern Gas Corridor between the EU and Azerbaijan, but this route currently cannot replace the Russian gas flowing through Ukraine.

The EU’s energy commissioner, Kadri Simson, highlighted concerns about LNG being diverted to Asia and emphasized the EU’s preparedness to handle global gas market disruptions. She noted that EU gas storage remains high, and demand has stabilized at low levels, down 20% compared to 2021.