United States fails in deterring Houthis

After half a year of conflict, the United States has failed to deter the Houthis from attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea as the Yemeni fighters continue to attack commercial boats and disrupt global trade, posing an increasingly difficult challenge for the far larger American military.  

Repeated US bombardments on Houthis positions have done little to stop the group that has managed to employ advanced weapons like surface-water drones and anti-ship ballistic missiles to fluster US troops. They have kept up the pace of attacks with more than 190 drone and missile launches since the effort began in October 2023. 

While the US has thwarted most Houthi attempts to damage merchant ships, the Yemeni fighters have now sunk or heavily damaged at least four commercial vessels, along with hijacking one. They have also killed four commercial sailors. 

The latest successful attack came on June 23, when the Houthis struck the Liberian-flagged and Greek-owned merchant ship the Trans World Navigator. The last vessel to sink, another Greek-owned ship, the Tutor, was on June 12.  

Bruce Bennett, an adjunct senior international defense researcher at RAND Corporation, said the Houthis are being fed by religious determination and a political motivation that embraces sacrifice, while their insurgent warfare, with weapons scattered across Yemen, pose a big challenge. 

“The US military is designed for regular warfare. It’s designed to take out an adversary who’s out there and targetable,” he said. “It’s really a very hard kind of military threat to get under control.” 

The conflict’s impact on global trade is only growing as it drags on. Earlier this month, the shipping industry sent out a scathing condemnation of the Houthis attacks, calling it “an unacceptable situation” and pushing for stronger international action to ensure the attacks “stop now.” 

While economic costs have largely been absorbed by the shipping industry and direct sellers for now, that could change. 

Adnan Mazarei, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics who focuses on the economies of the Middle East and Central Asia, said traffic is down by 50% in the Red Sea corridor. The impact is regional, he added, mainly hitting Egypt, which collects shipping revenues through the Suez Canal, along with reducing port traffic for countries like Israel. 

An extended conflict could begin to impact other parts of the world, especially Europe, as increased shipping costs trickle down to the average consumer. That could significantly worsen if a possible approaching war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon is realized, Mazarei added. 

“Unless there is a war in Lebanon, we are in a somewhat stable situation” he said. “Not a good situation, but I think things are somewhat stabilized.” 

The Houthis are launching drones and missiles daily from sites in Yemen, using fishing boats for radar-tracking and relying on advanced weapons shipments and other targeting assistance from Iran. 

The scope of their efforts has also expanded outside of the maritime corridor, with the Houthis in the past few months kidnapping dozens of United Nations relief works, Human Rights Watch said in a new report. 

The US Navy has been constantly on the alert since full engagement began in January to quickly shoot down drones and launch counterattacks on the rebel group’s assets.  

But the Houthis need to slip just one drone or missile through defenses to do damage, while the U.S. cannot miss once or risk a hit, said Cmdr. Eric Blomberg with the USS Laboon, a destroyer ship that has taken on the Houthis, who told The Associated Press that people may be unaware of “how deadly serious it is what we’re doing and how under threat the ships continue to be.” 

The USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier strike group, made up of four ships and some 6,000 sailors, this month left the Middle East. The US is sending reinforcements to the region for the Eisenhower group, which has been deployed since October to deter regional escalation and counter the Houthis. 

Washington believes it can damage the rebels enough to stop the effectiveness of their campaign, though officials are now stressing the challenge of accomplishing that goal. 

White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Wednesday that the Houthis “miss a whole hell of a lot more than they hit” because of the Navy’s vigilance. 

Kirby explained the U.S. was focused on “taking away their capability to conduct the attacks” but also acknowledged the Houthis remain determined and well-supplied, despite the military working to intercept Iranian skiffs headed to Yemen. 

“They have instilled this sort of religious fervorness and made it some sort of cause célèbre, and when you do that, it becomes even more difficult,” he said. “We’re doing everything we can to try to degrade their capabilities, but they’re still getting supplied. They’re still getting resourced by Iran.”