Pakistan Stock Exchange experiences lack luster week

Pakistan Stock Exchange experienced a subdued week, posted a nominal decline of 365 points (0.46%WoW), primarily due to weakness in the banking sector following news of the continuation of the ADR-based tax.

Average daily trading volume also declined to 356 million shares for the week, down 13%WoW.

The incidence of futures rollover, coupled with it being the last week of the fiscal year overall contributed to the lack luster performance.

Several important data points came in during the week, including a CAD of US$270 million, below expectations of a slight positive balance. This was due to the SBP acting swiftly to clear the backlog of overdue outward dividend repatriations, impacting the balance negatively.

Monthly FDI was reported at US$271 million, up 95%YoY, taking 11MFY24 FDI to US$1.73 billion, up 15%YoY.

Federal Budget for FY25 was approved by the National Assembly on Friday, with several amendments in previously presented finance bill.

These included introduction of a 15% FED on sales by builders/developers, continued concessions on HEV imports, and increased FED on cement, among other changes.

On the external front, foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) declined by US$239 million to US$8.9 billion.

The domestic currency continued to strengthen against the greenback, ending the week at PkR278.34/US$ (up 0.06%WoW).                    

Other major news flows during the week included: 1) World Bank approved US$535 million for social protection, livestock development, 2) No cut in gas tariff, 3) Finance Minister issues warning to retailers, 4) the GoP raises PKR908 billion new debt via T-Bills, PIB, and 5) Foreign investors repatriate record US$918 million in May.

The best performing sectors included: Tobacco, Jute and Vanaspati & allied, while ETFs, Refinery and Property were amongst the worst performers.

 Major selling was recorded by mutual funds with net sell of US$5.8 million and other organizations with net sell of US$2.2 million. Brokers and companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$4.9 million and US$1.5 million, respectively.

Top performing scrips of the week were: MUREB, FABL, PAKT, UNITY and HGFA, while the laggards included: YOUW, MCB, EPCL, CNERGY and CEPB.

With the approval of the Federal budget, clarity on new budgetary measures has emerged, and the market is anticipated to sustain positive momentum as new fiscal year commences.

The focus will now shift to upcoming discussions with the IMF regarding the next EFF program, with a keen eye on their assessment of the approved budget.

The anticipated easing of inflation figures for May 2024 is expected to reinforce positive market sentiment further.