On 24th August 2021, Algeria broke off its already
minimal bilateral relations with Morocco, declaring this was due to the
kingdom’s “hostile actions” and accusing it of involvement in the wildfires
that struck the Kabylia region earlier that month.
The heightened tension
between the two countries brings into focus regional uncertainty and may spell
the end of their limited collaboration in the energy sector.
The two countries have a long history of tense
relations, behind which lie issues of political ideology, border demarcation,
and competition for regional influence. Morocco and Algeria fought a short
border war after the latter’s independence from France in the fall of 1963, and
Algeria has long supported the Polisario Front in its struggle against Morocco
for control of the Western Sahara.
The land border between the two countries has officially
been closed since 1994; a decision Algeria made unilaterally following Moroccan
accusations that the Algerian military was behind a terrorist attack in
Marrakesh in 1994. The Moroccan leadership, including King Mohammed VI, has
repeatedly called for re-opening the border, something Algerian
leaders have consistently rejected. Still, the two countries have managed
to find limited avenues for cooperation around a gas pipeline that transports
Algerian gas through Morocco and on to Spain and other European markets,
although the future of this arrangement is now in doubt.
Lately, tensions between Algeria and Morocco reached a level
unseen in past, though an all-out military confrontation remains unlikely. Both
governments have increased their military presence along the border,
and while the prospects of armed conflict remain low, the growing tension
provides each enough fodder to distract from more serious domestic issues.
Indeed, the biggest challenge for Algeria’s military leadership has remained
how to convince an inwardly focused population that Morocco is a greater threat
to their well-being than internal economic, political, and security challenges.
The Algerian military and ruling elite’s dislike and
suspicion of Morocco runs deep and goes back to the border conflict of the
1960s and Cold War-era ideological tensions. Old Algerian fears of Rabat’s
designs for a “Greater Morocco” are no longer realistic — if they ever were —
but nonetheless hawkish views of Morocco and concerns over its expansionist
plans persist among Algeria’s military top brass. Morocco’s growing ambitions to
increase its regional political and economic influence therefore remain
alarming to some in Algeria’s military.
Recent domestic, regional, and global events have added to
this ongoing suspicion and tension between the two neighbors. The US
recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara dealt a blow
to Algerian efforts to keep Morocco isolated on the issue. Although the conflict
is by no means resolved, US recognition is a major win for Morocco — and
therefore, in this zero-sum game, a loss for the Polisario.
Algeria is also extremely wary of growing Moroccan-Israeli
cooperation. The two countries normalized relations as part of the deal struck
with the Trump administration that granted Morocco US recognition over its
Western Sahara claims. Algeria remains a staunch ideological supporter of the
Palestinian cause, and was extremely critical of Morocco’s decision to
normalize relations.
Adding to Algeria’s outrage, Morocco’s alleged involvement
in the Pegasus spyware scandal prompted condemnations and accusations of
spying on Algerian officials and top military brass. Algerian Foreign Minister
Ramtane Lamamra’s fiery back and forth with Morocco’s ambassador to the UN,
Omar Hilal, in July regarding the Western Sahara further amplified tensions. In
response to Lamamra’s reaffirmation of Algeria’s support for
self-determination, Hilal, as he has provocatively done before, called on
Algeria to adopt the same support for self-determination for its own
long-restive Kabylia region.
Despite their sharp jabs against Algeria, the Moroccan
leadership blames Algeria for the escalation and interprets it as a way for the
Algerian leadership to save face while shunning King Mohammed VI’s recent calls
for the reopening of the border and improved relations.
In August, as wildfires swept through the Kabylia
region, Morocco offered Algeria two of its firefighting Canadair aircraft. Algeria,
despite having no firefighting fleet of its own, rejected the offer.
As tensions escalate, one of the key uncertainties with
broader implications is the future of the Maghreb-Europe Gas (MEG) pipeline
that began operations in November 1996 to export gas to the Spanish
and Portuguese markets. The pipeline crosses through Morocco and in return
Morocco receives 7% of the gas transported, which it uses for
domestic consumption. The agreement has weathered previous diplomatic crises.
However, this time, its future is more uncertain.
In addition to the MEG pipeline, Algeria also currently
exports through Medgaz, an underwater pipeline that bypasses Morocco and is
under expansion to handle higher flows. MEG pushes through 13.5 billion cubic
meters (bcm) of Algerian gas yearly, while Medgaz has capacity for 8 bcm a
year. Medgaz has announced plans to boost its export capacity to 10 bcm a year,
but the expansion will not be operational until the end of the year at the
earliest. The MEG transit agreement between the two states is up for renewal in
October.
For Morocco, if the deal falls through, this would deprive
it of a key source of energy. Gas accounts for 10% of its domestic
energy consumption, and the loss of access to Algerian gas would particularly
impact two power plants located in northern Morocco — south of
Tangier and south of Jerrada respectively — both of which rely on imported gas.
Over the past couple of years, with the pipeline agreement
coming up for renewal, Morocco has signaled its intention to strike a more
advantageous deal with Algeria, bolstered by the fact that the full ownership
of the pipeline will pass from the Spanish company Naturgy to the Moroccan
government as of 1st November 2021. Morocco wants to boost its own access to
gas as an important energy source, despite ongoing domestic efforts to
diversify its energy mix and increase the share of renewables.
If the two countries fail to reach an agreement, Morocco
could face energy shortages that it might struggle to make up in the short to
medium term, while Algeria would deprive itself of an important income source.
For their part, Spain and Portugal would likewise have to make up energy
shortages from a different supplier. If Morocco and Algeria take a hard-nosed
approach, Algeria could deprive Morocco of a key bargaining chip, but it would
be at the expense of its own domestic economic considerations.
Algeria cannot afford to lose this access, particularly
considering the crippling economic losses the country has faced in recent
years. Although Morocco has promised to keep the pipeline open, it could risk
being seen as blocking access to gas for European markets. Coming on top of its
recent woes with European partners over migration, spying allegations, the
Western Sahara, and the upcoming European ruling on the fisheries agreement, this
could seriously damage Morocco’s ties with the EU.
As the three partners — Algeria, Morocco, and Spain —
continue negotiations on this agreement that they all need, geopolitical
considerations are not to be overlooked. Algeria is growing more anxious to
reassert itself as a regional power following two years of turmoil at home and
a longer-standing retrenchment from regional affairs.
Cutting ties with Morocco, even at the risk of potentially
jeopardizing its critical energy exports, is about drawing a line in the sand,
a total unwillingness to allow Morocco any leverage, as well as an effort to
draw the attention of domestic audiences away from problems at home and rally
against an external enemy.
For Morocco, these old conflicts and tensions that it wishes
to leave behind create a challenge to its domestic and foreign ambitions. They
stand as a reminder that the country is vulnerable, and that its regional and
local stability are not to be taken for granted — something Algeria is keen to
emphasize as it seeks to restore its wider regional role.
