Banning Ukraine grains

Poland, Slovakia and Hungary announced their own restrictions on Ukrainian grain imports on Friday after the European Commission decided not to extend its ban on imports into Ukraine's five EU neighbors.

Ukraine was one of the world's top grain exporters before Russia's 2022 invasion reduced its ability to ship agricultural produce to global markets. Ukrainian farmers have relied on grain exports through neighboring countries since the conflict began as it has been unable to use the favored routes through Black Sea ports.

The flood of grains and oilseeds into neighboring countries reduced prices there, impacting the income of local farmers and resulting in governments banning agricultural imports from Ukraine.

The European Union in May stepped in to prevent individual countries imposing unilateral bans and imposed its own ban on imports into neighboring countries. Under the EU ban, Ukraine was allowed to export through those countries on condition the produce was sold elsewhere.

The EU allowed that ban to expire on Friday after Ukraine pledged to take measures to tighten control of exports to neighboring countries. The issue is a particularly sensitive one now as farmers harvest their crops and prepare to sell.

EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said on Friday countries should refrain from unilateral measures against imports of Ukrainian grain, but Poland, Slovakia and Hungary immediately responded by reimposing their own restrictions on Ukrainian grain imports.

They will continue to allow the transit of Ukrainian produce.

"As long as Ukraine is able to certify that the grain is going to get to the country of destination, through the trucks and trains, the domestic use ban is not really going to put a dent in Ukraine's ability to get exports out," said Terry Reilly, senior agricultural strategist for Marex. He noted that disruptions to Black Sea exports are a bigger concern.

It is unclear how much Ukraine has pledged to restrict exports or how the new bans would impact the flow of produce from Ukraine.

The issue has underscored division the EU over the impact of the war in Ukraine on the economies of member countries which themselves have powerful agriculture and farming lobbies.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy welcomed the EU's decision not to further extend the ban on Kyiv's grain exports, but said his government would react in civilised fashion if EU member states broke EU rules.

The three countries argue their actions are in the interests of their economies.

"The ban covers four cereals, but also at my request, at the request of farmers, the ban has been extended to include meals from these cereals: corn, wheat, rapeseed, so that these products also do not affect the Polish market," Polish Agriculture Minister Robert Telus said in a statement posted on Facebook.

"We will extend this ban despite their disagreement, despite the European Commission's disagreement," added Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki. "We will do it because it is in the interest of the Polish farmer."

Hungary imposed a national import ban on 24 Ukrainian agricultural products, including grains, vegetables, several meat products and honey, according to a government decree published on Friday.

Slovakia's agriculture minister followed suit announcing its own grain ban. All three bans only apply to domestic imports and do not affect transit to onward markets.

The EU created alternative land routes, so-called Solidarity Lanes, for Ukraine to use to export its grains and oilseeds after Russia backed out of a UN-brokered Black Sea grain deal in July that allowed safe passage for the cargo ships.

The EU Commission said existing measures would expire as originally planned on Friday after Ukraine agreed to introduce measures such as an export licensing system within 30 days

The EU said there was no reason to prolong the ban because the distortions in supply that led to the ban in May had disappeared from the market.

The EU said it would not impose restrictions as long as Ukraine exercises effective export controls.

Farmers in the five countries neighboring Ukraine have repeatedly complained about a product glut hitting their domestic prices and pushing them towards bankruptcy.

The countries, except Bulgaria, had been pushing for an extension of the EU ban. Bulgaria on Thursday voted to scrap the curbs.

Romania's government, which unlike its peers did not issue a unilateral ban before May, said on Friday it "regretted that a European solution to extend the ban could not be found."

Romania said it would wait for Ukraine to present its plan to prevent a surge of exports before deciding how to protect Romanian farmers.

Romania sees over 60% of the alternate flows pass through its territory mainly via the Danube River and its farmers have threatened protests if the ban is not extended.

For the last year, Ukraine had moved 60% of its exports through the Solidarity Lanes and 40% via the Black Sea through a UN brokered deal that fell apart in July.

In August, about 4 million tons of Ukraine grains passed through the Solidarity Lanes of which close to 2.7 million tons were through the Danube.

The Commission wants to increase exports through Romania further but the plan has been complicated by Russian drone attacks on Ukraine's grain infrastructure along the Danube and near the Romanian border.

 

 

Ukraine grain saga

From restrictions on Ukrainian grain going to Eastern Europe to costly English breakfasts and drought problems, here’s a snapshot of key food stories from around the world compiled by Agnieszka de Sousa in London for Bloomberg.

The latest chapter of the Ukrainian grain saga in Eastern Europe returned to Brussels. The European Union will look to prohibit the domestic sale of Ukraine’s grain in five member states, only allowing transit to other destinations. That follows unilateral bans by Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria on imports of Ukraine’s produce on fears the supplies are hurting their own markets.

That effectively means Ukrainian exporters face losing sales in those countries. For example, 7% of Ukraine’s corn and wheat exports have gone to Poland this season, according to UkrAgroConsult. Some 7% of its corn shipments have also gone to Hungary.

It’s not the only setback Ukraine’s agriculture sector has faced this week. Its Black Sea exports were again disrupted after inspections of ships under a safe-passage corridor were halted for two days — after a similar stoppage the previous week. Kyiv has blamed the disruption to the grain-export deal — which has been crucial for bringing down global food-commodity costs from records reached after Russia’s invasion — on Moscow. 

While the shipping resumption is good news for both Ukraine and developing nations that import its grain, it highlights uncertainty over the initiative that Russia has repeatedly threatened to quit.

As Muslims around the world sat down for the final days of Ramadan, soaring food prices mean things aren’t what they used to be. Take this downtown Casablanca cafe, where hungry people would flock at sunset for the iftar meal. But with Moroccan prices at the highest since 1984, most of the seats now remain empty.

The average year-on-year food inflation between March and December 2022 was 29% in the Middle East and North Africa region, the World Bank said. Muslims comprise a quarter of the world’s population and food inflation during Ramadan affects a broad swath of the Middle East, Africa and Asia.

Riccardo Fabiani, North Africa project director for the International Crisis Group think tank, said, “It’s a special time of the year, which makes people more sensitive about the issue. The legitimacy of local governments is at risk, protests could intensify and, in general, the fear is that something could break in terms of public order and stability.”

A dry spell is currently wilting crops and delaying plantings in some of Europe’s top produce growers, risking a further run-up in food inflation. Southern Europe is a heavyweight in fruit and vegetables, and the bad weather follows a drought that withered rice paddies and olive groves last year. 

Observation satellites are being deployed to help farmers, utilities and supply chains adjust to persistently hotter and drier weather.

 

 

G-7 agrees US$60/barrel price for Russian oil

The Group of Seven (G7) nations and Australia on Friday said they had agreed a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil after European Union members overcame resistance from Poland and hammered out a political agreement earlier in the day. The price cap would take effect on December 05, 2022 or very soon thereafter. Details of the deal are due to be published in the EU legal journal on Sunday.

The Group of Seven (G7) is an intergovernmental political forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and United States; additionally, the European Union is a "non-enumerated member". It is officially organized around shared values of pluralism and representative government, with members making up world's largest IMF advanced economies and liberal democracies. As of 2020, G7 members account for over half of global net wealth (at over US$200 trillion), 32 to 46 percent of global gross domestic product, and 10 percent of the world's population (770 million people). Members are great powers in global affairs and maintain mutually close political, economic, diplomatic, and military relations

The nations said they anticipated that any revision of the price would include a form of grandfathering to allow compliant transactions concluded before the change.

"The Price Cap Coalition may also consider further action to ensure the effectiveness of the price cap," the statement read. No details were immediately available on what further actions could be taken.

The price cap, a G7 idea, aims to reduce Russia's income from selling oil, while preventing a spike in global oil prices after an EU embargo on Russian crude takes effect on December 05, 2022.

Warsaw had resisted the proposed level as it examined an adjustment mechanism to keep the cap below the market price. It had pushed in EU negotiations for the cap to be as low as possible to squeeze revenues to Russia and limit Moscow's ability to finance its war in Ukraine.

Polish Ambassador to the EU Andrzej Sados on Friday told reporters Poland had backed the EU deal, which included a mechanism to keep the oil price cap at least 5% below the market rate. US officials said the deal was unprecedented and demonstrated the resolve of the coalition opposing Russia's war.

A spokesperson for the Czech Republic, which holds the rotating EU presidency and oversees EU countries' negotiations, said it had launched the written procedure for all 27 EU countries to formally green light the deal, following Poland's approval.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the price cap would significantly reduce Russia's revenues.

"It will help us stabilize global energy prices, benefiting emerging economies around the world," von der Leyen said on Twitter, adding that the cap would be "adjustable over time" to react to market developments.

The G7 price cap will allow non-EU countries to continue importing seaborne Russian crude oil, but it will prohibit shipping, insurance and re-insurance companies from handling cargoes of Russian crude around the globe, unless it is sold for less than the price cap.

Because the most important shipping and insurance firms are based in G7 countries, the price cap would make it very difficult for Moscow to sell its oil for a higher price.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the cap will particularly benefit low- and medium-income countries that have borne the brunt of high energy and food prices.

"With Russia’s economy already contracting and its budget increasingly stretched thin, the price cap will immediately cut into Putin’s most important source of revenue," Yellen said in a statement.

A senior US Treasury Department official told reporters on Friday that the US$60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil will keep global markets well supplied while institutionalizing discounts created by the threat of such a limit.

The chair of the Russian lower house's foreign affairs committee told Tass news agency on Friday the European Union was jeopardizing its own energy security.

The initial G7 proposal last week was for a price cap of $65-$70 per barrel with no adjustment mechanism. Since Russian Urals crude already traded lower, Poland, Lithuania and Estonia pushed for a lower price.

Russian Urals crude traded at around $67 a barrel on Friday.

EU countries have wrangled for days over the details, with those countries adding conditions to the deal - including that the price cap will be reviewed in mid-January and every two months after that, according to diplomats and an EU document.

The document also said a 45-day transitional period would apply to vessels carrying Russian crude that was loaded before December 05 and unloaded at its final destination by January 19, 2023.

US arms manufacturers making fortune from Ukraine war

Since the Ukraine war on February 24, Western governments have been shipping large quantities of weapons to the country, making the arms supply an extremely lucrative trade for dealers. 

The US administration under President Joe Biden has been announcing fresh military packages on a regular basis. Weapons being sent to Ukraine that will keep the US military complexes busy for a long time to come. 

The aggregate US military aid totals at least US$25 billion committed since late February until August 03, 2022 according to the Ukraine Support Tracker.

On Thursday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced another US$2.2 billion military package for Ukraine and neighboring countries. Earlier President Biden had also approved a separate US$675 million in weapons to Ukraine, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced. 

There is no sign the US is willing to end war; on Friday the White House said Biden will request a further US$11.7 billion in emergency funding from Congress to provide lethal aid and budget support.

The five largest companies in the world that manufacture weapons are all American namely: Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Boeing, Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics. In fact, half of the top 100 producers of arms are based in the United States, while twenty are located in Europe. 

In the aftermath of the Ukraine conflict, these five American firms saw their stock prices soar in a sign that investors believed profitable days were ahead.

At a time when the broader stock market as measured by the S&P 500 had slumped by about 4%; Lockheed Martin’s stock price was up over 12% – with most of the gains occurring in its immediate aftermath. Northrop Grumman has jumped by 20%. 

It’s not just the dealers making profit, over the past months; reports have emerged showing how members of Congress stand to personally profit from the war with lawmakers or their spouses holding stock in arms dealers such as Lockheed Martin or Raytheon Technologies. 

Likewise, politicians in Britain such as members of the House of Lords made tens of thousands of pounds by owning shares in the largest British weapons manufacturer and sixth in the world, BAE Systems. The arms dealers’ share price rose by 23% following the outbreak of war in Ukraine. 

It’s not just politicians who benefit from the vast arms supplies to Eastern Europe; weapons dealers have many people on their payroll as well. These include the many pundits on the face of American mainstream media who discuss the war in Ukraine while having strong links with the US arms manufacturers.

It makes the job of the Biden administration much easier when trying to sell to the public the reasons to send more weapons and making announcements about new military packages. 

The US has shipped at least 5,500 Javelin anti-tank missiles manufactured jointly by Raytheon Technologies and Lockheed Martin. The two firms will be paid to replenish American stocks with the money coming from a US$40 billion package signed by Biden. 

The other weapons America has been sending include longer range missile systems, anti-ship missiles, anti-tank missiles, anti-aircraft missiles, helicopters, rockets, launchers, howitzers, radar systems, drones, aerial systems, armored vehicles, small arms, artillery and other arms. Washington has also put aside money for training, maintenance and sustainment. 

That’s a lot of arms being shipped over by the US, which is leading the Western war effort in Eastern Europe against Russia which has long blamed the US and NATO for triggering the conflict.

Moscow requested an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Thursday to discuss Western arms supplies to Ukraine. 

The Russian Ambassador, Vasily Nebenzya, told the council it was a fantasy to believe that Western powers can determine the outcome of the conflict with their weapons supplies.

A significant proportion of these weapons find itself in the hands of smugglers right from the warehouses. In the darknet, one can find all kinds of offers to buy these weapons. We’ve already seen similar situations in the Balkans and the Middle East where Western military arsenals were then re-exported to Europe and then used by criminal groups on European territory or found their way into the hands of terrorists. 

The UN disarmament chief, Izumi Nakamitsu, has also warned that the flood of weapons being sent to conflict areas such as Ukraine raises many concerns including the potential for diversion.

Campaigners have also been speaking out about the consequences of where the vast number of weapons may end up. Kristen Bayes, a spokesperson for the Campaign Against the Arms Trade, says the provision of weapons to Ukraine is not problem free. "You might think you're handing over weapons to people you know and like, but then they get sold on to people you absolutely don't”.

Campaigners say the risk of advanced and sophisticated weapons delivered to Ukraine ending up in the black market is high because authorities are not in full control of all territory. They argue it is also difficult to keep track of the arms when they have been sent so quickly.

In July, the Financial Times quoted Western officials with knowledge about talks between several NATO members and Kyiv to explore a tracking system or detailed inventory lists for weapons highlighting Western fears about missing weapons. 

“All these weapons land in southern Poland, get shipped to the border and then are just divided up into vehicles to cross in trucks, vans, sometimes private cars,” said one of the Western officials. “And from that moment we go blank on their location and we have no idea where they go, where they are used or even if they stay in the country.”

It’s not just the US; Britain has also committed at least £2.3 billion in military assistance.  Following the Britain are: Poland, Germany, Canada, the Czech Republic, Australia and France. Out of the 28 countries sending weapons, 25 are NATO members. 

Many European countries used the Ukraine conflict to announce plans for increased military spending. The additional commitments are worth at least €200 billion according to the EU.

Germany committed an extra €100 billion in the coming years, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz saying defense would make up two percent of his country’s GDP from now on. As a result of the news, German arms manufacturers can expect to see their sales grow significantly. Berlin has already announced it will be purchasing 35 American F-35 war planes, which are produced by Lockheed Martin and have an estimated lifetime cost of US$1.6 trillion. 

The French President Emmanuel Macron has pledged to expand his country's defence budget, while the British government had already planned increased spending before the conflict broke out but faces pressure from Labour to spend even more. 

Poland said that it had requested 500 HIMARS launchers and ammunition from Lockheed Martin. Estonia confirmed it has been in touch with the American manufacturer also to buy launchers and ammunition worth. Latvia and Lithuania are expected to follow suit.

Campaigners say with so much profit being made from the war, it’s not surprising that peace is not being pursued.

European countries agree on mechanism to pay for Russian gas in roubles

European energy firms can open special accounts with Gazprombank to pay for Russian gas, a key demand by Moscow, without breaching sanctions if transferring euros or dollars to them fulfils their contractual obligations, the German Economy Ministry said.

Russia cut gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland this week for failing to pay in roubles, raising fears that other countries could be next.

Moscow's decree says Gazprombank would open special "K" type accounts for gas payments from foreign buyers. An EU company would transfer foreign currency into one such account, and then a Russian bank would convert the payment to roubles and transfer the roubles to another "K" account belonging to Gazprom.

European Union countries remain divided over whether sanctions would be broken if they engage with Russia's roubles payment demand.

Russia's decree said the buyer's obligation would be considered fulfilled only when the roubles arrived in Gazprom's account.

"There are European guidelines on payment modalities, which form the framework for us and which we adhere to," a spokesperson for Germany's Economy Ministry said on Friday in an e-mailed statement.

"According to these guidelines, account K, to which payment is made in euros/dollars, is in line with the sanctions if companies declare that contracts have been fulfilled with payment in euros or dollars."

A government source said that it was irrelevant in which country the K account is opened as long as the bank in question was not on any sanctions list.

The European Commission will provide EU countries with extra guidance on whether they can keep paying for Russian gas without breaching the bloc's sanctions, a Commission official told Reuters on Friday.

Companies and countries were at odds over Moscow's rouble-for-gas payment system on Friday, while European officials promised more guidance on whether buying Russian gas can comply with sanctions and Russia said it saw no problem with its plan.

It did not specify whether companies could do this and also open a rouble account, as requested by Russia, without being in breach of EU sanctions. 

Denmark's Orsted said it has no intention of opening a rouble account in Russia, although it declined to comment on payment in other currencies. Italy's ENI also said it had not opened an account in roubles.

Under Russia's mechanism, buyers are obliged to deposit euros or dollars into an account at privately-owned Russian bank Gazprombank, which has then to convert them into roubles, place the proceeds in another account owned by the foreign buyer and transfer the payment in Russian currency to Gazprom.

EU energy ministers will on Monday hold an emergency meeting to discuss their response to Russia's demand.

The European Commission, the EU executive, has already said countries may be able to make sanctions-compliant payments provided they declare their payments are completed once it has been made in euros and before it is converted into roubles.

EU countries, however, have said they want more clarity, while Germany, the bloc's biggest economy and among the most dependent on Russian gas, says it cannot afford to stop buying Russian supplies, even though it is taking steps to find alternative sources of energy.

A European Commission official told Reuters on Friday the executive will provide EU countries with extra guidance following complaints from some countries that ambiguity would leave different countries reaching different interpretations of what they were allowed to do.

Russia on Friday said it saw no problem with its proposed system.

"If the established procedure for interaction between gas buyers and the authorized bank is observed by the buyer, and there are no problems for the authorized bank in terms of selling currency on the stock exchange due to restrictive measures on the part of foreign states, then there cannot be any obstacles to paying for and receiving natural gas," Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said.

The rouble has to an extent benefited from Moscow's demand for roubles payment. The currency hit its highest level versus the euro in more than two years on Friday supported by capital controls as the central bank cut interest rates for the second time this month.

European gas prices have hit record levels since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, Europe's top gas supplier, and were up slightly on Friday.

Central to the confusion on the part of the European buyers is whether Russia would only consider the payment to be complete after the gas-to-roubles conversion is done - a transaction that would involve Russia's central bank, which is subject to EU sanctions.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, an EU diplomat admitted a certain amount of ambiguity could be helpful as the bloc seeks to prevent any widening of divisions between countries, which have different levels of reliance on Russia and different deadlines to make payments.

"In the circumstances, a little bit of messiness might just be preferable," the diplomat said.

Poland and Bulgaria have contracts with Gazprom due to expire at the end of this year, which meant their search for alternative supplies was already advanced. Poland also has very healthy gas stocks around 77% full.

Austria’s OMV, which has a contract with Gazprom until 2040, said it was analyzing how a change could be implemented for it to pay in roubles without breaching sanctions when next payment is due in May.

US troops arrive in Poland to reinforce NATO

The dichotomy of Military Policy of United States is evident. It recently asked 160 troops to move out of Ukraine, but landed fresh troops in Poland. The troops reinforcing NATO allies in Eastern Europe arrived at a military base in southeastern Poland on Saturday.

The US troops arrived in a small Beechcraft C-12 Huron that landed at Rzeszow military base on February  05, Polish military spokesman Major Przemyslaw Lipczynski told the Polish Press Agency (PAP).

Lipczynski said the arrivals included some support and command-level staff, adding that a much larger contingent is expected to arrive at the airfield on Sunday. The second transport was initially slated for arrival on Saturday afternoon, but those plans were changed for undisclosed reasons, Lipczynski added.

“We await the arrival of our allies,” Lipczynski told PAP, adding that “our collaboration has been going very smoothly.”

In total, some 1,700 US soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division based at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, are expected to be stationed in Poland, the spokesman said, describing it as an elite rapid response force that Polish troops have worked with on multiple occasions.

“We served alongside them on missions, including Iraq and Afghanistan,” Lipczynski said, adding that the soldiers had also trained together during international war games like Dragon and Anaconda.

“We can count on each other, and trust one another,” he added.

The US troop contingent arrived on the same day that the Russian Defense Ministry announced it had sent a pair of long-range nuclear-capable bombers on patrol over Moscow ally Belarus, which shares a border with Poland.

“In the course of their flight, the long-range aircraft practiced joint tasks with the air force and air defense of the Belarusian armed forces,” according to Russian state news agency TASS. The patrol mission lasted around four hours, after which the Russian planes returned to base in Russia.

The patrol mission came as the Kremlin has moved troops from Siberia and other remote parts of Russia to Belarus for sweeping joint drills, with the deployment adding to a large Russian military buildup near Ukraine that has fueled Western fears of a possible invasion.

Russia has denied any plans of attacking Ukraine and has asked the United States and its allies for a binding commitment that they won’t accept Ukraine into NATO.

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky has pushed for his country’s admission into the military alliance.

The Kremlin has also asked the United States and its allies to promise not to deploy offensive weapons and to roll back NATO deployments to Eastern Europe.

Washington and NATO have rejected those demands.

“From our perspective it can’t be clearer—NATO’s door is open, remains open, and that is our commitment,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in late January, though he renewed an offer of “reciprocal” measures to address mutual security concerns between Russia and NATO, including missile reductions in Europe.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled Moscow’s readiness for more talks with Washington and its NATO allies.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz were scheduled to make separate trip to Kyiv and Moscow as part of a high-level diplomatic effort to defuse tensions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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First US Troops Arrive in Poland to Reinforce NATO Amid Russia–Ukraine Tensions

By Tom Ozimek

 

February 5, 2022 Updated: February 6, 2022

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The first U.S. troops reinforcing NATO allies in Eastern Europe amid Russia–Ukraine tensions arrived at a military base in southeastern Poland on Saturday.

A handful of U.S. troops arrived in a small Beechcraft C-12 Huron that landed at Rzeszow military base shortly after 10 a.m. on Feb. 5, Polish military spokesman Major Przemyslaw Lipczynski told the Polish Press Agency (PAP).

Lipczynski said the arrivals included some support and command-level staff, adding that a much larger contingent is expected to arrive at the airfield on Sunday. The second transport was initially slated for arrival on Saturday afternoon, but those plans were changed for undisclosed reasons, Lipczynski added.

“We await the arrival of our allies,” Lipczynski told PAP, adding that “our collaboration has been going very smoothly.”

In total, some 1,700 U.S. soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division based at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, are expected to be stationed in Poland, the spokesman said, describing it as an elite rapid response force that Polish troops have worked with on multiple occasions.

“We served alongside them on missions, including Iraq and Afghanistan,” Lipczynski said, adding that the soldiers had also trained together during international war games like Dragon and Anaconda.

“We can count on each other, and trust one another,” he added.

The U.S. troop contingent arrived on the same day that the Russian Defense Ministry announced it had sent a pair of long-range nuclear-capable bombers on patrol over Moscow ally Belarus, which shares a border with Poland.

“In the course of their flight, the long-range aircraft practiced joint tasks with the air force and air defense of the Belarusian armed forces,” the ministry said, according to Russian state news agency TASS. The patrol mission lasted around four hours, after which the Russian planes returned to base in Russia.

The patrol mission came as the Kremlin has moved troops from Siberia and other remote parts of Russia to Belarus for sweeping joint drills, with the deployment adding to a large Russian military buildup near Ukraine that has fueled Western fears of a possible invasion.

Russia has denied any plans of attacking Ukraine and has asked the United States and its allies for a binding commitment that they won’t accept Ukraine into NATO.

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky has pushed for his country’s admission into the military alliance.

The Kremlin has also asked the United States and its allies to promise not to deploy offensive weapons and to roll back NATO deployments to Eastern Europe.

Washington and NATO have rejected those demands.

“From our perspective. I can’t be more clear—NATO’s door is open, remains open, and that is our commitment,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in late January, though he renewed an offer of “reciprocal” measures to address mutual security concerns between Russia and NATO, including missile reductions in Europe.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled Moscow’s readiness for more talks with Washington and its NATO allies.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are set to make separate trips on Feb. 7–8 and Feb. 14–15 to Kyiv and Moscow as part of a high-level diplomatic effort to defuse tensions.