The latest chapter of the Ukrainian grain saga in Eastern Europe returned to Brussels. The European Union will look to prohibit the domestic sale of Ukraine’s grain in five member states, only allowing transit to other destinations. That follows unilateral bans by Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria on imports of Ukraine’s produce on fears the supplies are hurting their own markets.
That effectively means Ukrainian exporters face losing sales in those countries. For example, 7% of Ukraine’s corn and wheat exports have gone to Poland this season, according to UkrAgroConsult. Some 7% of its corn shipments have also gone to Hungary.
It’s not the only setback Ukraine’s agriculture sector has faced this week. Its Black Sea exports were again disrupted after inspections of ships under a safe-passage corridor were halted for two days — after a similar stoppage the previous week. Kyiv has blamed the disruption to the grain-export deal — which has been crucial for bringing down global food-commodity costs from records reached after Russia’s invasion — on Moscow.
While the shipping resumption is good news for both Ukraine and developing nations that import its grain, it highlights uncertainty over the initiative that Russia has repeatedly threatened to quit.
As Muslims around the world sat down for the final days of Ramadan, soaring food prices mean things aren’t what they used to be. Take this downtown Casablanca cafe, where hungry people would flock at sunset for the iftar meal. But with Moroccan prices at the highest since 1984, most of the seats now remain empty.
The average year-on-year food inflation between March and December 2022 was 29% in the Middle East and North Africa region, the World Bank said. Muslims comprise a quarter of the world’s population and food inflation during Ramadan affects a broad swath of the Middle East, Africa and Asia.
Riccardo Fabiani, North Africa project director for the International Crisis Group think tank, said, “It’s a special time of the year, which makes people more sensitive about the issue. The legitimacy of local governments is at risk, protests could intensify and, in general, the fear is that something could break in terms of public order and stability.”
A dry spell is currently wilting crops and delaying plantings in some of Europe’s top produce growers, risking a further run-up in food inflation. Southern Europe is a heavyweight in fruit and vegetables, and the bad weather follows a drought that withered rice paddies and olive groves last year.
Observation satellites are being deployed to help farmers, utilities and supply chains adjust to persistently hotter and drier weather.
