Trump's decisions good or bad

In a nearly 30-minute speech, Donald Trump called for “change” after he claimed a litany of national failures under Biden’s watch. His first standing ovation came after announcing that he would declare a national emergency at the Southern border, a move that will allow the Pentagon to deploy troops to the region.

The declaration would also free up resources to build a wall at the US-Mexico border, an effort he was forced to abandon at the end of his last administration.

Trump later said he would reinstate service members who were fired for refusing the COVID-19 vaccine and give them full back pay.

The GOP has long vowed to reinstate troops fired for refusing the vaccine. They slipped in the 2024 defense authorization bill a requirement for the Pentagon to consider reinstatement for that reason.

Trump also said he would stop “radical political theories” and “social experiments” for members of the armed forces. “It’s going to end immediately,” he said.

Trump vowed to “build the strongest military the world has ever seen.”

In addition, he said the US will once again become a “growing nation,” vowing to take back the Panama Canal during his inauguration speech.

The newly sworn-in president added that he wants his legacy to be that of a “peacemaker and unifier” as he touted the release of Israeli hostages a day before his inauguration.

One notable omission from his inaugural speech was the Russia-Ukraine war, soon to enter its third year. Trump has promised to end the conflict war even before he was sworn in.

The immediate visible effects of the new Trump administration could be found at the Pentagon, where a portrait of retired Gen. Mark Milley, the former chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who has feuded in highly public spats with Trump, was taken down on Monday. No reason was given for the change.

Trump has clashed with Milley over several national security issues during his first time in the White House, with Trump once suggesting that the four-star general deserved to be executed. Milley, who retired in 2023, has called Trump a fascist.

In his last few hours in the Oval Office on Monday, Joe Biden issued pre-emptive pardons to Milley and several other people, which he said were not an admittance of guilt but were issued for their service.

 

Russia and Iran to sign strategic partnership

According to Reuters, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will hold talks in Russia on January 17 after which they will sign a long-awaited comprehensive strategic partnership pact, the Kremlin said on Monday.

The two leaders will discuss options for further expanding ties between Moscow and Tehran, including in the trade and investment, transport and logistics, and humanitarian spheres, the Kremlin said.

Putin and Pezeshkian will also talk about regional and international issues, it added.

Russia has developed closer ties with Iran and other countries hostile towards the United States, such as North Korea, since the start of the Ukraine war.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in October last year that Moscow and Tehran intended to sign the strategic partnership pact which would include closer defence cooperation.

The United States accused Tehran in September last year of delivering close-range ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine, and imposed sanctions on ships and companies it said were involved in delivering Iranian weapons. Tehran denies providing Moscow with the missiles.

What after Russian gas supply to Europe ends?

According to Reuters, Russian gas supplies sent via Ukraine to Europe for more than 40 years are scheduled to end on January 01, 2025 after Ukraine's Naftogaz refused to renew its latest five-year transit deal with Russia's Gazprom.

Despite the war between the two countries, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on December 19, 2024 said Kyiv might consider allowing the transit of Russian gas if payments to Moscow were withheld until the fighting ends.

Russian President Vladimir Putin a week later said there was no time left this year to sign a new deal.

Here is what we know about options for when Russian gas transit via Ukraine stops.

HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?

Russia's supply to Europe has fallen dramatically in the wake of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 which spurred the European Union (EU) to cut its dependence on Russian gas.

Moscow spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at about 35% but has fallen to about 8%.

As of December 01, 2024 the EU received less than 14 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas from Russia via Ukraine, down from 65 bcm/ year when the latest five-year contract began in 2020.

The European Commission has said that volume can be fully replaced by liquefied natural gas and non-Russian pipeline imports.

Moscow has lost market share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar.

Russia could earn around US$5 billion on sales via Ukraine this year based on an average Russian government gas price forecast of US$339 per 1,000 cubic metres, Reuters calculations show.

Ukraine earns between US$800 million and US$ one billion in transit fees per year.

EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. With supplies set to end, EU officials and traders say a repeat of that rally is unlikely given the now modest volumes involved and the small number of customers remaining.

WHO IS AFFECTED?

The Ukraine route serves Austria and Slovakia. Austria received most of its gas via Ukraine, while Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from Gazprom per year, about two-thirds of its needs.

Gazprom halted supply to Austria's OMV in mid-November 2024 over a contractual dispute but volumes held steady via the route as other buyers stepped in.

Slovakia has said the loss of Russian supply would not hit its consumption and that it has diversified supply contracts. Its main gas buyer SPP has contracts for non-Russian supply with BP, Eni, ExxonMobil, RWE and Shell.

WHAT OPTIONS DO BUYERS HAVE?

Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic Sea.

One option is the TurkStream pipeline to Turkey under the Black Sea, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity is limited.

Slovakia's gas supply could come from Hungary, roughly a third from Austria and the remainder from the Czech Republic and Poland, according to Austrian energy regulator E-Control.

Austria should not face disruptions as it has prepared for the switch in supply, its regulator has said.

The Czech Republic is likely to tap more supply from Germany pipelines taking advantage of an exemption from a German domestic gas levy from January 01, 2025.

The Czech Republic has said it is ready to provide Slovakia with gas transit and storage capacities.

Russia supplies Moldova with about 2 bcm of gas per year. It is piped via Ukraine to the breakaway region of Transdniestria where it is used to generate cheap power that is sold to government-controlled parts of Moldova.

Gazprom said it plans to suspend supply on January 01, 2025 citing unpaid bills.

Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean has condemned the decision but said the country has diversified sources of supply. The country plans measures to reduce consumption by at least a third from January 01, 2025.

As for Ukraine, its security of supply will not be impacted as it does not use Russian transit gas, the European Commission said.

WHERE DOES THE GAS COME FROM?

The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline carries gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - which is now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region.

It flows through Ukraine to Slovakia where the pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.

 

 

10th anniversary of downing of MH17 airline

According to Reuters, the Netherlands commemorated on Wednesday the 298 victims of flight MH17 that was shot down over Ukraine 10 years ago with a ceremony attended by the bereaved and representatives from Malaysia, Australia, Britain, Belgium and Ukraine.

Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur was shot down over eastern Ukraine on July 17, 2014, as fighting raged between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces, the precursor of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

All passengers and crew on board, including 196 Dutch citizens, were killed, leaving the plane's wreckage and the remains of the victims scattered across fields of corn and sunflowers.

Based on an international investigation, a Dutch court in 2022 said there was no doubt the plane was shot down by a Russian missile system and that Moscow had "overall control" of the forces of the separatist 'Donetsk People's Republic' in eastern Ukraine from May 2014. Russia denies any involvement.

During Wednesday's ceremony, which took place at the MH17 monument in the village of Vijfhuizen near Amsterdam, loved ones read out loud the names of all the victims.

Mark Rutte, who was prime minister when the disaster happened and a strong critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin ever since, drew applause for his efforts during his time in office to keep the international spotlight on the incident.

The Dutch court convicted two former Russian intelligence agents and a Ukrainian separatist leader in absentia of murder for their role in the transport into eastern Ukraine of the Russian military BUK missile system that was used to shoot down the plane.

"Justice requires a long, long breath," said Prime Minister Dick Schoof, who took office earlier this month, adding that "a conviction is not the same as having someone behind bars".

Commemorating the victims, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on X that Russia's accountability "is inevitable".

"In fact, Russia murdered the MH17 victims twice. First with a missile. Second, with lies that abused their memory and hurt their relatives," Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba added.

Moscow denies any responsibility for MH17's downing and in 2014 it also denied any presence in Ukraine. However, the EU's outgoing foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on Tuesday called on Russia to finally accept its responsibility.

"The evidence presented makes it abundantly clear that the BUK surface-to-air missile system used to bring down Flight MH17 belonged beyond doubt to the armed forces of the Russian Federation," Borrell said.

"No Russian disinformation operation can distract from these basic facts, established by a court of law."

 

 

 

 

Where does US spend most of foreign aid?

Debates over US aid to Israel and Ukraine have dominated Washington this year, raising questions about its economic and military support to various allies and whether the nation spends too much support abroad.

Opposition within the GOP to foreign aid has been building, with Republicans arguing the US needs to spend more on border security. The debate is likely to color this year’s presidential race, and the reelection of former President Trump and his America First campaign could raise questions about funding for some partners. 

All figures come from State Department spending in fiscal 2023, with the addition of foreign aid appropriations for Israel and Ukraine last month.

Ukraine

Congress allocated US$61 billion for Ukraine in a foreign aid package signed late last month, following months of political fighting over whether to continue backing the country against a Russian invasion.

The funding nearly doubles what the US has invested in Ukraine since its war began in early 2022, bringing the spending total on the conflict to about US$137 billion between military and economic aid, according to the Kiel Institute.

Nearly all the military spending in the new aid package will be spent on domestic arms manufacturers, resupplying stockpiles sent to Ukraine to fight Russia. It also includes about US$8 billion for economic development and recovery in the country.

The spending deal has split the GOP House majority and nearly led to the ouster of Speaker Mike Johnson, after Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and two other GOP members cited the aid package as the last straw in filing a motion to vacate the Speakership. Johnson survived the vote with the support of Democrats.

The Russia-Ukraine war has dragged on for months, with Ukrainian leaders complaining of dwindling supplies as American arms shipments from a December 2022 aid package ran out.

“For months, while MAGA Republicans were blocking aid, Ukraine’s been running out of artillery shells and ammunition,” Biden said when he signed the new aid package last month. “Meanwhile, Putin’s friends are keeping him well supplied.”

The new US$61 billion expenditure is on top of about US$17 billion allocated in 2022 that was spent last year.

Israel

Israel has been the largest recipient of US foreign aid since World War II. The country has accepted more than US$300 billion since 1946, according to the Council on Foreign Relations, with more than US$220 billion of the figure in military aid.

Long considered the closest ally of United States in the Middle East, Congress has allocated between US$3 billion to US$4 billion per year to Israel consistently since the 1970s for its defense. Nearly the entire sum is provided through a State Department program allowing Israel to purchase US-manufactured arms and munitions for no cost.

That trend was bucked late last month, as the long-awaited foreign aid package included about US$15 billion in military aid for Israel amid its war with Hamas in Gaza. The package is the largest single-year allocation of aid for Israel in at least 50 years, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

“We will always make sure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself against Iran and the terrorists it supports,” Biden said when he signed the aid package.

President Biden withheld an arms shipment to Israel last week, part of a pressure campaign urging Israel to not invade the city of Rafah in southern Gaza.

Biden said the US will halt future arms shipments if Israel enters the city, which Israeli leaders said Thursday it will likely do with or without US backing.

Jordan

Jordan is the third-largest recipient of US foreign aid, according to a State Department and USAID tracker of spending. About half of the funds allocated for the country in 2023 were for military aid.

That spending has already come in handy in the Israel-Hamas war, as Jordan joined the United States in defending Israel against a wave of Iranian drone and missile strikes last month. The unprecedented attack on Israel was completely shut down by the combined defenses of the three countries.

Jordan also assisted the US in airdrops of humanitarian aid into Gaza amid the conflict in March. 

Egypt

Foreign spending in Egypt has come under additional scrutiny in the last year after the indictment of Sen. Bob Menendez. Menendez, who stepped down as chair of the Foreign Relations Committee during the investigation, is accused of accepting hundreds of thousands in bribes from interests in Egypt.

After the indictment, Sen. Ben Cardin, who became foreign relations chair when Menendez stepped down, held back US$235 million bound for Egypt, criticizing the country’s dogged record on human rights and press freedom.

“Congress has been clear, through the law, that the government of Egypt’s record on a range of critical human rights issues, good governance, and the rule of law must improve if our bilateral relationship is to be sustained,” Cardin said in October last year.

Rep. Gregory Meeks the top Democrat on the equivalent House committee, made a similar request weeks earlier.

The controversy comes as Egypt plays a central role in the Israel-Hamas war. Egyptian diplomats have acted as intermediaries between Israel, the US and Hamas, and Cairo played host to cease-fire negotiations last week.

Ethiopia

Allocations to Ethiopia are nearly entirely humanitarian aid, as regions of the country struggle with a deep famine and civil unrest. The northern region of Tigray fell into an ethnic conflict in 2022, with rebel and government forces facing off as thousands starved.

USAID resumed food aid to the region in December, five months after it took the extraordinary step of halting its nationwide program over a massive corruption scheme by local officials.

The rare combination of droughts, conflict and other factors disrupting food supplies has made Ethiopia one of the largest recipients of US humanitarian aid. About one-sixth of Ethiopians received food aid before discovery of the food theft early last year.

Nigeria

Nigeria foreign aid spending is focused on health care and food access. The US spent about a quarter billion dollars on stemming the spread of HIV and AIDS in the country in 2023, according to USAID, as well as another US$130 million on other health needs.

The country also has areas where food is in critical need, sparking another quarter billion in spending for food access and other expenditures filed by the State Department under “emergency response.”

Most of the support is funneled through non-government organizations and charities operating in the country.

Somalia

Almost the entirety of funds allocated for Somalia is under emergency designation for food access as the country continues to struggle after decades of civil unrest.

About US$700 million of the expenditures are in partnership with the United Nations, which has had a constant presence in the country for decades amid a brewing civil war with breakaway Somaliland. Just more than US$100 million is set to fund UN peacekeeping missions in the country.

Kenya

In Kenya, US humanitarian assistance is spread between health, food access and economic development. The largest expenditure is in partnership with the World Food Program in the region, while the government also invested significant sums into fighting the spread of HIV and AIDS and supporting local agriculture.

 Courtesy: The Hill

 

 

US Senate passes Ukraine and Israel funding

The Senate on Tuesday passed a US$95 billion emergency foreign aid package, ending months of bitter fighting over US$61 billion for the war in Ukraine that had deeply divided the Republican Party. The measure passed by a vote of 79 to 18 and now goes to President Joe Biden for his signature.

The package also includes US$15 billion in military aid for Israel and US$9 billion in humanitarian aid for Gaza and other war-torn areas, which became another flashpoint among conservative Republicans who argued it didn’t have adequate safeguards to keep it from going to Hamas.

It provides US$8 billion in security assistance to deter Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific.

It includes language to force the Chinese owner of TikTok to divest from the popular app, which is used by more than 140 million Americans, or otherwise face a ban within the United States.

The centerpiece of the package is US$47.7 billion that would flow through the Defense Department to provide training, equipment, weapons, logistics support and supplies to help Ukraine’s military, as well as US$13.4 billion to replenish US equipment sent to Ukraine and US$20.5 billion for US Armed Forces support in Europe.

It also includes US$9.5 billion in economic aid to Ukraine structured as a forgivable loan, an idea that former President Trump gave life to when the Senate passed a previous version of the US$95 billion assistance package in February.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, who worked for months to get Ukraine aid passed, hailed the vote as a landmark moment.

“Today the Senate sends a unified message to the entire world. America will always defend democracy in its hour of need. We tell our allies we will stand with you. We tell our adversaries don’t mess with us,” Schumer declared on the Senate floor.

McConnell took to the floor to hail the prosperity the United States has enjoyed because it’s a global leader but told colleagues that that leadership comes with responsibilities to allies who help maintain peace and order throughout much of the world.

And he chastised colleagues who dragged out the debate over helping Ukraine based on what he called the “sheer fiction” that supporting the war is not a vital national security interest.

Warmongers approve US$95 billion package

The US House of Representatives on Saturday with broad bipartisan support passed a US$95 billion legislative package providing security assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, over bitter objections from Republican hardliners, reports Reuters.

Passage of the long-awaited legislation was closely watched by US defense contractors, who are in line for huge contracts to supply equipment for Ukraine and other US partners.

The legislation now proceeds to the Democratic majority Senate, which passed a similar measure more than two months ago. US leaders from Democratic President Joe Biden to top Senate Republican Mitch McConnell had been urging embattled Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson to bring it up for a vote.

The Senate is set to begin considering the House-passed bill on Tuesday, with some preliminary votes that afternoon. Final passage was expected sometime next week, which would clear the way for Biden to sign it into law.

The bills provide U$60.84 billion to address the conflict in Ukraine, including US$23 billion to replenish US weapons, stocks and facilities; US$26 billion for Israel, including US$9.1 billion for humanitarian needs, and US$8.12 billion for the Indo-Pacific, including Taiwan

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed his thanks, saying US lawmakers moved to keep "history on the right track."

"The vital US aid bill passed today by the House will keep the war from expanding, save thousands and thousands of lives, and help both of our nations to become stronger," Zelenskiy said on X.

The Biden administration is already finalizing its next assistance package for Ukraine so it can announce the new tranche of aid soon after the bill becomes law in order to meet Ukraine’s urgent battlefield needs, a White House official said.

Biden, who had urged Congress since last year to approve the additional aid to Ukraine, said in a statement, "It comes at a moment of grave urgency, with Israel facing unprecedented attacks from Iran and Ukraine under continued bombardment from Russia."

The vote on passage of the Ukraine funding was 311-112. Significantly, 112 Republicans opposed the legislation, with only 101 in support.

"Mike Johnson is a lame duck ... he's done," far-right Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene told reporters afterward.

Marjorie has been a leading opponent of helping Ukraine in its war against Russia and has taken steps that threaten to remove Johnson from office over this issue. Greene stopped short of doing so on Saturday.

During the vote, several lawmakers waved small Ukrainian flags as it became clear that element of the package was headed to passage. Johnson warned lawmakers that was a "violation of decorum."

The House's actions during a rare Saturday session put on display some cracks in what generally is solid support for Israel within Congress.

Recent months have seen progressive Democrats express anger with Israel's government and its conduct of the war in Gaza.

Saturday's vote, in which the Israel aid was passed 366-58, had 37 Democrats and 21 Republicans in opposition.

Johnson this week chose to ignore ouster threats by hardline members of his fractious 218-213 majority and push forward the measure that includes Ukraine funding as it struggles to fight off a two-year Russian invasion.

The unusual four-bill package also includes a measure that includes a threat to ban the Chinese-owned social media app TikTok and the potential transfer of seized Russian assets to Ukraine.

Some hardline Republicans voicing strong opposition to further Ukraine aid argued the United States can ill afford it given its rising $34 trillion national debt. They have repeatedly raised the threat of ousting Johnson, who became speaker in October after his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, was ousted by party hardliners.

"It's not the perfect legislation, it's not the legislation that we would write if Republicans were in charge of both the House, the Senate, and the White House," Johnson told reporters on Friday. "This is the best possible product that we can get under these circumstances to take care of these really important obligations."

Representative Bob Good, chair of the hardline House Freedom Caucus, told reporters on Friday that the bills represent a "slide down into the abyss of greater fiscal crisis and America-last policies that reflect Biden and (Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck) Schumer and (House Democratic leader Hakeem) Jeffries, and don't reflect the American people."

But Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, who carries huge influence in the party, on April 12 voiced support for Johnson and in a Thursday social media post said Ukraine's survival is important for the US.

Gold price tops US$2,200 an ounce

Gold finally surpassed US$2,200 an ounce for the first time on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve indicated that it would press ahead with three rate cuts in 2024 despite elevated inflation.

Spot gold set a new record of US$2,222.39 during the early hours of trading, before retreating to US$2,206.10. US gold futures soared 2.4% to US$2,208.20.

Gold’s latest rally, which started mid-February, is underpinned by longstanding tailwinds including heightened geopolitical risks and increased central bank buying. During March 2024 alone, the safe-haven metal hit new highs on five occasions.

Its rapid ascent, according to Bloomberg columnists has surprised many seasoned market observers, as there hasn’t been a clear catalyst. What has been partially driving bullion is expectations for looser monetary policy in the United States, and that has now been reaffirmed by the Fed.

On Wednesday, Fed chair Jerome Powell continued to highlight officials would like to see more evidence that prices are coming down, but it’s still likely in most people’s view that we will achieve that confidence and there will be rate cuts, he said.

“What we saw last night was the green light really for gold traders to come back in,” said Chris Weston, head of research for Pepperstone Group.

“The Fed have said that right now they’re tolerant of the inflation that we’ve seen, they’re tolerant that the labor market strength is not going to be the impediment,” Weston told Bloomberg.

Speculation around the timing of the Fed’s long-anticipated pivot may have provided the trigger for recent gains, with data showing that traders boosted their net long positions on gold in the week through March 05 by the most since 2019.

The metal stands to benefit even more when US interest rates actually do come down, as bullion-backed exchange traded funds look likely to increase their holdings, according to UBS Group.

On the geopolitical front, there are a number of risks boosting gold’s allure as a haven asset, Russia appears to be gaining the upper hand in its war in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas conflict continues unabated and has led to a re-routing of global shipping, while the US presidential election at later this year could prove massively consequential for markets.

Chinese buying has also underpinned prices. As well as the central bank, people have been stocking up on coins, gold bars and jewelry to safeguard their wealth from a year long property downturn and losses in the country’s stock market.

Putin’s victory attracts mixed reactions

Western governments lined up on Monday to condemn Vladimir Putin's landslide election victory as unfair and undemocratic, but China, India and North Korea congratulated the veteran Russian leader on extending his rule by a further six years.

The contrasting reactions underscored the geopolitical fault lines that have gaped wider since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago, triggering the deepest crisis in relations with the West since the end of the Cold War.

Arriving in Brussels on Monday, EU foreign ministers roundly dismissed the election result as a sham ahead of agreeing sanctions on individuals linked to the mistreatment and death of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny.

"Russia's election was an election without choice," German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said at the start of the meeting.

Playing on Moscow's reference to its war in Ukraine as a special military operation, French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne said Paris had taken note of the special election operation.

"The conditions for a free, pluralistic and democratic election were not met," his ministry said.

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said the election outcome highlighted the depth of repression in Russia.

"Putin removes his political opponents, controls the media, and then crowns himself the winner. This is not democracy," Cameron said.

France, Britain and others condemned the fact that Russia had also held its election in occupied regions of Ukraine that it claims to have annexed during the war.

The Kremlin dismissed such criticism, saying the 87% of the vote won by Putin during the three-day election showed that the Russian people were consolidating around him.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia's election had no legitimacy.

A White House spokesperson on Sunday said Russia's election was obviously not free nor fair. President Joe Biden has not yet commented.

In sharp contrast, Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated Putin, and said Beijing would maintain close communication with Moscow to promote the no limits partnership they agreed in 2022, just before Russia invaded Ukraine.

"I believe that under your leadership, Russia will certainly be able to achieve greater achievements in national development and construction," Xi told Putin in his message, according to Xinhua News.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi echoed that message, saying he looked forward to strengthening New Delhi's time-tested special and privileged strategic partnership with Moscow.

India and China, along with Russia, are members of the BRICS group of emerging economies that aims to challenge US domination of the global economy.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi, accused by the West of supplying weapons to Russia, also extended congratulations to Putin, stressing their desire for further expansion of bilateral relations with Moscow.

In Africa, where the West has been struggling to win support for its efforts to isolate Moscow over the Ukraine war, some newspapers saw Putin's re-election as reinforcing the stance of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.

Those three states in the Sahel region have strengthened ties with Russia following coups in recent years at the expense of their traditional French and US allies.

"In Africa, this re-election could sound like a non-event, but given the context in the Sahel it takes on a particular meaning, because Putin embodies the new geopolitical balance of power on the continent with a growing (Russian) presence and influence," said Burkina Faso daily Aujourd'hui au Faso".

 

 

Netherlands to supply drones to Ukraine

The Netherlands is joining a military coalition with allies including Britain that will supply Ukraine with advanced drone technology and bolster its offensive capabilities in the war against Russia, the Dutch defence minister said.

The pledge from the Netherlands comes in addition to F-16 fighter jets, artillery, ammunition and air defence systems provided by the Dutch to Kyiv.

For the Netherlands, there may be additional costs on top of 2 billion euros earmarked already for 2024, Dutch Defence Minister Kasja Ollongren told Reuters in an interview ahead of two days of NATO defence ministers’ meetings in Brussels starting on Wednesday.

"We know of course that drones are very important in this war," Ollongren said. "That's why we are joining the drone coalition that Ukraine has started together with Latvia, together with other countries, to make sure that we do just that - increase production, use the latest technology and to provide exactly what Ukraine needs."

Ukraine's Defence Ministry announced Britain's participation last month.

Drones have become a crucial part of both Ukraine and Russia's wartime strategies for reconnaissance and striking targets, thanks in large part to their relatively low cost.

Both sides are now using thousands of small, inexpensive drones originally built for enthusiasts and racers to conduct battlefield-level surveillance and attacks, while also growing their fleets of larger, longer-distance unmanned craft which can fly much further and carry heavier cameras or more explosives.

Both Britain and the Netherlands had already been helping Ukraine build out its drone fleet.

"What is new is that we are now forming this coalition. So we're connecting, let's say, the things that we're doing separately into one coalition that will be able to respond to the new demands of Ukraine, as they see the battle developing on the frontline. And I think that's the strength of this coalition," she said at her offices in The Hague.

Ukraine intends to manufacture thousands of long-range drones capable of deep strikes into Russia in 2024 and already has up to 10 companies working on production, Ukraine's digital minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, said in a Reuters interview on Monday.

By working together, the coalition will be able to respond to Kyiv's changing wartime tactics.

"And I think that's going to be the strength of this coalition, to be able to provide in the very short term what they need," she said.

Ollongren said the Netherlands will contribute high-tech expertise from the commercial sector, but declined to provide technical or financial details.

 

United States to transfer weapons seized from Iran to Ukraine

According to Saudi Gazette, the United States will transfer thousands of seized Iranian weapons and rounds of ammunition to Ukraine, in a move that could help to alleviate some of the critical shortages facing the Ukrainian military as it awaits more money and equipment from the US and its allies.

US Central Command has already transferred over one million rounds of seized Iranian ammunition to the Ukrainian armed forces, it announced on Wednesday. The transfer was conducted on Monday, CENTCOM said in a press release.

“The government obtained ownership of these munitions on July 20, 2023, through the Department of Justice’s civil forfeiture claims against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC),” the statement says.

The Justice Department announced in March that it was seeking the forfeiture of one million rounds of Iranian ammunition, thousands of proximity fuses for rocket-propelled grenades, and thousands of pounds of propellant for rocket-propelled grenades that the Navy seized from Iran as it was in transit to Yemen.

“These munitions were originally seized by US Central Command naval forces from the transiting stateless dhow MARWAN 1, December 09, 2022. The munitions were being transferred from the IRGC to the Houthis in Yemen in violation of the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2216,” the statement says.

The Biden administration for months has been weighing how to legally send the seized weapons, which are stored in CENTCOM facilities across the Middle East, to the Ukrainians.

Over the past year, the US Navy has seized thousands of Iranian assault rifles and more than one million rounds of ammunition from vessels used by Iran to ship weapons to Yemen. The seizures, frequently carried out with regional partner forces, target small stateless vessels on routes historically used to smuggle weapons to the Houthis in Yemen.

In mid-January 2023, the US assisted French forces in the seizure of 3,000 assault rifles headed from Iran to Yemen, as well as 23 anti-tank guided missiles. Following the seizure, the US took custody of the confiscated weapons.

That illegal weapons interdiction capped a two month period in which the US and its partners seized a total of 5,000 weapons and 1.6 million rounds of ammunition, according to Central Command.

Justice Department and defense officials have been working together to find a legal pathway to send the weapons to Ukraine, officials said, and one way is through the US’ civil forfeiture authorities.

The Justice Department has filed at least two forfeiture complaints against seized Iranian ammunition and weapons this year. Apart from the announcement in March, DOJ announced in July that that it was seeking the forfeiture of “over 9,000 rifles, 284 machine guns, approximately 194 rocket launchers, over 70 anti-tank guided missiles, and over 700,000 rounds of ammunition” seized from Iran by the US Navy.

“At the end of the day, Ukraine needs various supplies for the war effort, and while this isn’t a solution to all of Ukraine’s military needs, it will provide critical support,” said Jonathan Lord, a senior fellow and director of the Middle East security program at the Center for a New American Security who pushed the US to send the seized Iranian weapons to Ukraine in an op-ed in February 2023.

Lord added that the move could also have implications for Iran’s relationship with Russia.

“For over a year, Iranian UAVs in the hands of the Russian military have been used to attack and murder Ukrainian civilians,” Lord said. “There is poetic justice in Ukraine utilizing seized Iranian weapons to defend its people against Russia’s criminal invasion and abuses. Additionally, this policy may put greater pressure on the burgeoning relationship between Moscow and Tehran.”

The decision could drive a wedge between Iran and Russia, which have formed a de facto defense partnership over the last several months, with Iran supplying Russia with drones for its war in Ukraine and Russia cooperating with Iran on missile and air defense production.

War is good for business, mantra of military industrial complexes

Military industrial complex players big and small gathered in London this month, hawking everything from long-range missiles to gold plated pistols to arms fair attendees—including representatives of horrific human rights violators—as weapon-makers and other merchants of the machinery of death reap record profits.

"War is good for business," one defense executive attending the biennial Defense and Security Equipment International (DSEI) conference at ExCel London flat-out told Reuters. "We are extremely busy," Michael Elmore, head of sales at the UK-based armored steelmaker MTL Advanced, told the media agency.

Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine and the West's scramble to arm Ukrainian homeland defenders have been a bonanza for arms-makers.

"Ukraine is a very interesting combination of First and Second World War technologies and very modern technology," Kuldar Vaarsi, CEO of the Estonian unmanned ground vehicle firm MILREM, told Reuters.

Saber-rattling and fearmongering by government, media, and business figures amid rising tensions between the US and its allies on one side, and a fast-rising China on the other, have also spurred military spending, including Japan's US$320 billion buildup announced last December.

"We think this is a longer-term essentially 'sea change' in national defense strategy for the U.S. and for our Western allies," Jim Taiclet, CEO of US arms giant Lockheed Martin, told investors during a call earlier this summer announcing higher-than-expected sales and profit outlooks.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the United States, Russia, France, China, and Germany were the world's top arms exporters from 2018-22, with the five nations accounting for 76% of all weapons exports during that period. The U.S. accounted for nearly 40% of such exports during those five years, while increasing its dominance in the arms trade. The US also remains by far the world's biggest military spender.

In addition to major corporations, middlemen like Marc Morales have also been profiting handsomely from wars in countries including Ukraine. Morales happened to have a warehouse full of ammunition in Bulgaria that the Pentagon originally intended for Afghanistan when Russia invaded its neighbor, and he has been richly rewarded as the US spends tens of billions of dollars arming Ukrainian forces. He named his new US$10 million yacht Trigger Happy.

Outside the sprawling ExCel convention center in London's Docklands, anti-war protesters rallied against the global arms trade and the death and destruction it fuels. The Guardian reported that at least a dozen demonstrators were arrested during the course of the conference, including nine on Thursday for blocking a road outside the venue.

Sam Perlo-Freeman, a researcher at the Campaign Against Arms Trade (CAAT), told The Guardian that a lot of countries that are being talked about as new arms export markets are ones we would be concerned about.

"Egypt is a repressive regime and Vietnam an absolute dictatorship," Perlo-Freeman added. "Indonesia is involved in brutality in West Papua."

Emily Apple, also of CAAT, told People's World that the companies exhibiting read as who is who of the world's worst arms dealers.

"Israel is an apartheid state, and it is disgusting that the UK is not only selling weapons to Israel but encouraging Israeli arms companies to sell their weapons in London," she continued.

"Representatives from regimes such as Saudi Arabia, who have used UK made weapons to commit war crimes in Yemen, will be wined and dined and encouraged to buy yet more arms."

"Deals done at DSEI will cause misery across the world, causing global instability, and devastate people's lives," Apple added.

Inside ExCel, it was business as usual. Pressed by Declassified UK chief reporter Phil Miller on why Britain's right-wing government supports selling arms to the Saudi dictatorship that sentences someone to death for tweeting, Minister of State for the Armed Forces James Heappey deflected.

Private sector leaders, however, have been more forthcoming. As Raytheon CEO Greg Hayes opined during a 2021 investor call touting the company's solid growth, "Peace is not going to break out in the Middle East anytime soon."

 

Developing countries facing debt problem

According to Reuters, the persistent and damaging debt problems gripping a number of developing nations will be a core topic during the G20 summit in Delhi next month. Following is the recap of economies in the countries currently facing problems:

ZAMBIA

Zambia was the first African country to default during the COVID-19 pandemic and after a long-awaited burst of progress in recent months finally looks to be closing in on a repair plan.

In June, it clinched a US$6.3 billion debt rework deal with the Paris Club creditor nations and its other big bilateral lender China. The details are still being worked on, but the government also hopes to reach a deal in the coming months with the international funds that hold its unpaid sovereign bonds.

The progress has also been cheered as a success for the struggling G20 Common Framework initiative, which was set up during the pandemic to try to streamline debt restructurings but has been hard to make work in practice.

SRI LANKA

Sri Lanka announced a debt overhaul plan at the end of June and has continued to make progress since, albeit not everywhere.

Nearly all holders of its domestic, dollar-denominated Sri Lanka Development Bonds (SLDBs) agreed to exchange their bonds into five new Sri Lankan rupee-dominated notes that will mature between 2025 and 2033.

Another part of the domestic debt plan has faced delays, though, with a key deadline on a Treasury bond exchange delayed three times and now set for Septemer 11, 2023.

Central bank chief Nandalal Weerasinghe has said the country's big foreign creditors such as India and China are awaiting the conclusion of the domestic debt operation before continuing discussions.

He said negotiations will be held in parallel with the first review of its US$2.9 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout program due from 14-27 September. Failure to complete the domestic debt overhaul by then could result in delays both in terms of IMF disbursements and talks with creditors.

GHANA

Ghana defaulted on most of its external debt at the end of last year. It is the fourth country to seek a rework under the Common Framework and is aiming to reduce its international debt payments by US$10.5 billion over the next three years.

Its progress has been relatively swift compared to the likes of Zambia. The government recently agreed to tackle roughly US$4 billion of its domestic debt via a pension fund debt swap operation and a dollar-denominated bonds exchange.

It has sent a restructuring plan to its official sector - wealthier government - creditors and its finance minister has said he also expects to reach a deal with the country's bondholders by the end of the year.

The funds know it will require them to write off money but hope it could also include a recovery instrument that would mean Ghana pays back more of that money over time if its economy recovers quickly.

PAKISTAN

Pakistan needs upwards of $22 billion to service external debt and pay other bills for fiscal year 2024.

A caretaker administration is in charge until an election that must take place by November. Inflation and interest rates are at historic highs, and it is struggling to rebuild from devastating 2022 floods.

In June 2023, Pakistan reached an 11th-hour deal with the IMF for a US$3 billion bailout, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE followed with US$2 billion and US$1 billion cash infusions.

Reserves, which had fallen to US$3.5 billion, had rebounded to US$7.8 billion by late August. Observers say it could have enough to make it to the elections but there are major questions about how long it will be able to avoid default without huge support.

TUNISIA

The North African nation, reeling from multiple hits since a 2011 revolution, is facing a full-blown economic crisis.

Most debt is internal but foreign loan repayments are due later this year and credit ratings agencies have said Tunisia could default.

President Kais Saied has slammed the terms required to unlock US$1.9 billion from the IMF as diktats that he will not meet.

Saudi Arabia pledged a US$400 million soft loan, and a US$100 million grant, but the tourism-dependent economy continues to grapple with shortages in imported food and medicine. The European Union has offered about US$1.1 billion (one billion euros)in support but that appears to be mostly pegged to the IMF deal or reforms.

EGYPT

Egypt remains another of the big countries seen as at risk of falling into trouble. North Africa's largest economy has around US$100 billion of hard currency - mainly dollar-denominated - debt to pay over the next five years, including a meaty US$3.3 billion bond next year and the government spends over 40% of its revenues just on debt interest payments.

Cairo has a US$3 billion IMF program and has devalued the pound by roughly 50% since February 2022. But a privatization plan is still on the go-slow and last month it veered away from its IMF plan by saying it would keep subsidized electricity prices unchanged until January.

Some of its government bonds are changing hands at half their face value and analysts think a key factor in whether it can get back on track is the amount of support wealthy Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia provide going forward.

EL SALVADOR

El Salvador has shifted from doom and default to bond market darling, propelled by two surprise debt buybacks and the appointment of a former IMF official as adviser to the finance ministry.

In summer 2022, its 2025 eurobond fell to just under 27 cents on the dollar, weighed down by high debt service costs and worries over its financing plans and fiscal policies.

The same bond traded at 91.50 cents on August 31, and its debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 77% in December 2022, the lowest since 2019, and is forecast to drop another percentage point this year, according to Refinitiv data.

It’s now relatively light debt repayment schedule through 2027, and the sky-high popularity of President Nayib Bukele, has assuaged fears the country could default.

KENYA

The East African nation's public debt stands at nearly 70% of GDP, according to the World Bank, putting it at high risk of debt distress.

President William Ruto's government has moderated spending and proposed a raft of tax hikes, assuaging some concerns of an imminent default.

The African Development Bank is in talks with Kenya over US$80.6 million to help it plug its financing gaps this year, and it is also discussing budgetary support from the World Bank.

But concerns remain; Ruto's political opposition has opposed many of his tax hikes, and protests have forced him to pause some reforms, such as fuel subsidy cuts.

UKRAINE

Ukraine froze debt payments in 2022 in the wake of Russia's invasion. It has said it is likely to decide early next year whether to try to extend that agreement or begin looking at potentially more complex alternatives.

Top institutions estimate the post-war rebuild cost will be at least one trillion euros, and the IMF estimates Ukraine needs $3-$4 billion a month to keep the country running.

If the war with Russia is not won or at least eased to a much lower intensity by next year, its debt restructuring dilemma will also have to factor in the November 2024 US Presidential election and the degree of support it would receive should Donald Trump or another Republican candidate win office.

LEBANON

Lebanon has been in default since 2020 with few signs its problems will be resolved any time some.

The IMF has issued stark warnings, but one bit of progress in the last couple of months has been a proposal by the central bank to lift the long-time peg on the country's local currency,

 

US proxy war in Ukraine: Keeping Moscow preoccupied to orchestrate moves against China

The United States always wanted to lock Moscow into a costly military quagmire with the goal of weakening Russia, and to this day it openly boasts about all this war is doing to advance US interests.

United States has kept this war going, using Ukrainian bodies as a giant sponge to soak up as many expensive military explosives as possible to drain Russian coffers while advancing US energy interests in Europe. The sole purpose is to keep Moscow preoccupied while the United States orchestrates its next move against China.

Last month The Washington Post’s David Ignatius wrote an article explaining why westerners shouldn’t feel gloomy about how things are going in Ukraine, writing the following about how much this war is doing to benefit US interests overseas.

“Meanwhile, for the United States and its NATO allies, these 18 months of war have been a strategic windfall, at relatively low cost (other than for the Ukrainians). The West’s most reckless antagonist has been rocked. NATO has grown much stronger with the additions of Sweden and Finland. Germany has weaned itself from dependence on Russian energy and, in many ways, rediscovered its sense of values. NATO squabbles make headlines, but overall, this has been a triumphal summer for the alliance.”

Everyone who has been supporting this horrifying proxy war should have that paragraph tattooed on their forehead

First commercial ship leaves Ukraine port since February 2022

According to Seatrade Maritime News, Joseph Schulte is the first commercial ship to leave Odessa port of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports on Wednesday, since the beginning of the war in February 2022.

The 9,400 teu Joseph Schulte, owned by German company Bernard Schulte and had been operated by MSC, which has been docked in the war-torn port of Odessa since the conflict in Ukraine began left for Turkey, ostensibly under ballast.

In July the Russians refused to renew the agreement that allowed bulk vessels to operate the grain corridor, exporting foodstuff to maintain populations in the Middle East and Africa.

In bringing that agreement to an end Russia effectively renewed its blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports for commercial as well as military shipping. The departure of the Hong Kong flagged Joseph Schulte from Odessa will test Russia’s resolve to maintain that blockade.

On 13 August a Russian Navy vessel, fired warning shots across the bow of the Palau-flagged Sukru Okan, with troops boarding and searching the bulk carrier.

Nevertheless, Daniil Melnychenko, an analyst at transport consultancy Informall, based in Odessa, told Seatrade Maritime News, “The expectations are that Türkiye flagged ships that were stuck here in Ukraine since the beginning of the war will also leave the big Odessa regional ports.”

According to Melnychenko many of the bulk carriers that have been docked in southern Ukraine are Turkish flagged vessels, so the departure of the container ship has heightened expectations that others will follow.

VesselsValue reports suggest that the Joseph Schulte vessel, which MSC has confirmed is no longer in its fleet, will first call at the Luk Sintez Oil Terminal to load bunkers. It will then sail to the Turkish port of Ambarli on the north shore of the Marmara Sea, on the European side of Istanbul, to offload the few containers on board and for inspection.

Melnychenko added that the vessel will likely be crewed by a mixture of Turkish and older Ukrainian men, over 60-years-old.

Ukraine drone hits Russian oil tanker

A Ukrainian drone full of explosives struck a Russian fuel tanker overnight near a bridge linking Russia to annexed Crimea, the second such attack in 24 hours, both sides said on Saturday.

No one was hurt, but the Crimean Bridge and ferry transport were suspended for several hours, according to Russian-installed officials in Crimea, which Moscow seized from Ukraine in 2014.

A Ukrainian intelligence source told Reuters that the drone with 450 kg of explosives hit the SIG vessel as it transported fuel for the Russian military in Ukrainian territorial waters.

"The tanker was well loaded with fuel, so the 'fireworks' were seen from afar," the source said, of the joint operation by Ukraine's navy and security service.

Kyiv says destroying Russia's military infrastructure inside Russia or on Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine is crucial to its counteroffensive after the February 2022 invasion.

Another drone attack on Russia's navy base at Novorossiysk damaged a warship on Friday, the first time the Ukrainian navy had projected its power so far from its shores.

And a Ukrainian government agency warned on Saturday that six Russian Black Sea ports - Anapa, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, Sochi, and Taman - were in war risk area.

Moscow has bombed Ukrainian ports since its withdrawal last month from an UN-brokered deal to let Ukraine export grain.

The SIG tanker had been supplying oil to Russian troops in Syria, according to Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-appointed official in Ukraine's southeastern region of Zaporizhzhia.

The United States imposed sanctions on the tanker and its owner, St. Petersburg-based Transpetrochart, in 2019 for helping provide jet fuel in Syria.

Vasyl Malyuk, head of Ukraine's SBU security service, did not directly confirm the latest attack but said any incident with Russian ships or the Crimean Bridge was "an absolutely logical and efficient step towards the enemy".

"Moreover, such special operations are conducted in the territorial waters of Ukraine and are completely legal," Malyuk said on the Telegram messaging app.

Russia's Novorossiysk Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre was quoted by the RIA news agency as saying there was no fuel spill from the SIG, as the ship had been carrying only technical ballast. Recovery work was underway with two tugboats nearby.

Rogov posted an audio clip on Telegram in which the SIG requested a tow. He also posted pictures of what he described as shattered fixtures and equipment inside the vessel.

"The SIG tanker ... received a hole in the engine room near the waterline on the starboard side, preliminarily as a result of a sea drone attack," Russia's Federal Marine and River Transport agency said in a statement on Telegram.

The Moscow-installed authorities in Crimea said the bridge, which was completed by Russia in 2018 and has come under serious attack twice in the war, was not targeted.

 

World must condemn Ukraine for using cluster munitions

This morning I was disgusted to the maximum after reading National Security Spokesman John Kirby saying, "They are using them appropriately," Kirby said. "They're using them effectively and they are actually having an impact on Russia's defensive formations and Russia's defensive maneuvering. I think I can leave it at that," he added. I want the world to condemn both, the United Stated for the supplying clusters and Ukraine for using the lethal bomb.

On July 16, 2023 I had posted a blog, its title was “US lust for carnage and destruction” and also stated, the decision by the United States to provide Ukraine with the M864 DPICM round is driven by one thing and one thing only lust for carnage and destruction. 

The White House has confirmed that Ukraine is using cluster bombs supplied by the United States against Russian forces. National Security Spokesman John Kirby said initial feedback suggested these were being used effectively on Russian defensive positions and operations.

It may be recalled that the cluster bombs scatter multiple bomblets and are banned by more than 100 states due to their threat to civilians. Despite the fact the US agreed to supply these to boost Ukrainian ammunition supplies.

Ukraine has promised the bombs will only be used to dislodge concentrations of Russian enemy soldiers.

"They are using them appropriately," Kirby said. "They're using them effectively and they are actually having an impact on Russia's defensive formations and Russia's defensive maneuvering. I think I can leave it at that."

The US decided to send cluster bombs after Ukraine warned that it was running out of ammunition during its summer counter-offensive, which has been slower and more costly than many had hoped.

President Joe Biden called the decision very difficult, while its allies the UK, Canada, New Zealand and Spain opposed their use.

The vast majority sent are artillery shells with a lower than 2.35% "dud rate", a reference to the percentage of bomblets which do not explode immediately and can remain a threat for years.

The weapons are effective when used against troops in trenches and fortified positions, as they render large areas too dangerous to move around in until cleared.

Russia has used similar cluster bombs in Ukraine since it launched its full-scale invasion last year, including in civilian areas.

Reacting to the US decision to send the bombs, Russian President Vladimir Putin said his country had similar weapons and they would be used "if they are used against us".

Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Ukrainian general in charge of operations in the country's east, told the BBC last week that his forces needed the weapons to inflict maximum damage on enemy infantry.

"We'd like to get very fast results, but in reality it's practically impossible. The more infantry who die here, the more their relatives back in Russia will ask their government 'why?'"

He added cluster bombs would not solve all our problems.

He also acknowledged that their use was controversial, but added, "If the Russians didn't use them, perhaps conscience would not allow us to do it too."

US cluster munitions sale to Ukraine must be stopped

The world has not really raised voice against the US proxy war going on in Ukraine since February 2022. Little effort has been made for establishing truce. On the contrary, the United States and its allies have sent the latest as well as outdated arms worth billions of dollars to Ukraine. 

The latest news is that the US is getting ready to supply banned cluster munitions to Ukraine. This shipment must be stopped to save hundreds of civilians who may dies due to its indiscriminate use.

According to Reuters, the United States announced on Friday that it would supply Ukraine with widely banned cluster munitions for its counteroffensive against occupying Russian forces.

Rights groups and the United Nations secretary-general questioned Washington's decision on the munitions, part of an US$800 million security package that brings total US military aid to more than US$40 billion since Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who describes the conflict as a "special military operation" to protect Russian security, has said the US and its allies were fighting an expanding proxy war.

The cluster munitions will deliver in a time frame that is relevant for the counteroffensive, a Pentagon official told reporters.

Cluster munitions are prohibited by more than 100 countries. Russia, Ukraine and the United States have not signed on to the Convention on Cluster Munitions, which bans production, stockpiling, use and transfer of the weapons.

They typically release large numbers of smaller bomblets that can kill indiscriminately over a wide area. Those that fail to explode pose a danger for decades after a conflict ends.

Ukraine has provided written assurances that it is going to use these in a very careful way to minimize risks to civilians, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said.

US President Joe Biden described the decision on cluster bombs as difficult but said Ukraine needed them.

Human Rights Watch has accused Russian and Ukrainian forces of using cluster munitions, which have killed civilians.

Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov criticized the transfer of these weapons to Ukraine by the US.

"The cruelty and cynicism with which Washington has approached the issue of transferring lethal weapons to Kyiv is striking," TASS news agency on Friday quoted Antonov as saying.

"Now, by the fault of the US, there will be a risk for many years that innocent civilians will be blown up by submunitions that have failed."

Ukraine says it has taken back some villages in southern Ukraine since the counteroffensive began in early June, but that it lacks the firepower and air cover to make faster progress.

"It's too early to judge how the counteroffensive is going one way or the other because we're at the beginning of the middle," Colin Kahl, the US under secretary of defense for policy, told reporters.

Erdogan demands Black Sea grain deal extension

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday that he was pressing Russia to extend a Black Sea grain deal by at least three months and announced a visit by President Vladimir Putin in August.

Turkey, a NATO member, has managed to retain cordial relations with both Russia and Ukraine over the past 16 months of the war and last year it helped to broker prisoner exchanges. Turkey has not joined its Western allies in imposing economic sanctions on Russia but has also supplied arms to Ukraine and called for its sovereignty to be respected.

He was speaking at a joint news conference with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy after the two parties met to discuss the fate of an arrangement, brokered last year by Turkey and the United Nations, to allow for the safe export of grain from Ukrainian ports via the Black Sea despite the war.

Zelenskiy's visit followed stops in Bulgaria and the Czech Republic, part of a tour of some NATO capitals aimed at encouraging them to take concrete steps at a summit next week towards granting Kyiv membership of the alliance, which Erdogan said Ukraine deserved.

Erdogan said work was under way on extending the Black Sea grain deal beyond its expiration date of July 17 and for longer periods beyond that. The deal would be one of the most important issues on the agenda for his meeting with Putin in Turkey next month, he said.

"Our hope is that it will be extended at least once every three months, not every two months. We will make an effort in this regard and try to increase the duration of it to two years," he said at the news conference with Zelenskiy.

Both men said they had also discussed another key question for Erdogan's talks with Putin ‑ the question of prisoner exchanges, which Zelenskiy said had been the first thing on their agenda. "I hope we will get a result from this soon," Erdogan said.

Zelenskiy said he would wait for a result to comment but made clear the discussion had gone into specifics on returning all captives including children deported to Russia and other groups.

"We are working on the return of our captives, political prisoners, Crimean Tatars," he said, referring to members of Ukraine's Muslim community in the peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014. "Our partners have all the lists. We are really working on this."

Erdogan said the issue could also come up in his contacts with the Russian leader before his visit. "If we make some phone calls before that, we will discuss it on the call as well," he said.

The Kremlin said it would be watching the talks closely, saying Putin has highly appreciated the mediation of Erdogan in attempting to resolve the conflict in Ukraine.

"As for forthcoming contacts between Putin and Erdogan, we do not rule them out in the foreseeable future," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters ahead of the Istanbul talks with Zelenskiy, which began on Friday.

Russia, angry about aspects of the grain deal's implementation, has threatened not to allow its further extension beyond July 17.

 

Iran accused of supplying drones to Russia

The White House said on Friday that Russia appeared to be deepening its defense cooperation with Iran and had received hundreds of one-way attack drones that it is using to strike Ukraine.

Citing newly declassified information, the White House said the drones, or Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), were built in Iran, shipped across the Caspian Sea and then used by Russian forces against Ukraine.

"Russia has been using Iranian UAVs in recent weeks to strike Kyiv and terrorize the Ukrainian population, and the Russia-Iran military partnership appears to be deepening," White House spokesman John Kirby said in a statement.

"We are also concerned that Russia is working with Iran to produce Iranian UAVs from inside Russia."

Kirby said the US had information that Russia was receiving materials from Iran required to build a drone manufacturing plant that could be fully operational early next year.

"We are releasing satellite imagery of the planned location of this UAV manufacturing plant in Russia’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone," he said.

The US has previously sanctioned Iranian executives at a defense manufacturer over drone supplies to Russia. Iran has acknowledged sending drones to Russia but said these were sent before Russia's February invasion. Moscow has denied its forces used Iranian drones in Ukraine.

A White House official said Iran had transferred several hundred drones to Russia since August last year.

Support between Iran and Russia was flowing both ways, Kirby said, with Iran seeking billions of dollars worth of military equipment from Russia including helicopters and radars.

"Russia has been offering Iran unprecedented defense cooperation, including on missiles, electronics, and air defense," he said.

"This is a full-scale defense partnership that is harmful to Ukraine, to Iran’s neighbors, and to the international community. We are continuing to use all the tools at our disposal to expose and disrupt these activities including by sharing this with the public – and we are prepared to do more."

Kirby said the transfers of drones constituted a violation of United Nations rules and the United States would seek to hold the two countries accountable.

Britain, France, Germany, the US and Ukraine say the supply of Iranian-made drones to Russia violates a 2015 UN Security Council resolution enshrining the Iran nuclear deal.

Under the 2015 UN resolution, a conventional arms embargo on Iran was in place until October 2020.

Ukraine and Western powers argue that the resolution includes restrictions on missiles and related technologies until October 2023 and can encompass the export and purchase of advanced military systems such as drones.

"We will continue to impose sanctions on the actors involved in the transfer of Iranian military equipment to Russia for use in Ukraine," Kirby said.

He said a new US advisory issued on Friday aimed "to help businesses and other governments better understand the risks posed by Iran’s UAV program and the illicit practices Iran uses to procure components for it."

The advisory highlighted key items sought by Iran for its development of drones, including electronics such as processors and controllers.