US Senate passes Ukraine and Israel funding

The Senate on Tuesday passed a US$95 billion emergency foreign aid package, ending months of bitter fighting over US$61 billion for the war in Ukraine that had deeply divided the Republican Party. The measure passed by a vote of 79 to 18 and now goes to President Joe Biden for his signature.

The package also includes US$15 billion in military aid for Israel and US$9 billion in humanitarian aid for Gaza and other war-torn areas, which became another flashpoint among conservative Republicans who argued it didn’t have adequate safeguards to keep it from going to Hamas.

It provides US$8 billion in security assistance to deter Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific.

It includes language to force the Chinese owner of TikTok to divest from the popular app, which is used by more than 140 million Americans, or otherwise face a ban within the United States.

The centerpiece of the package is US$47.7 billion that would flow through the Defense Department to provide training, equipment, weapons, logistics support and supplies to help Ukraine’s military, as well as US$13.4 billion to replenish US equipment sent to Ukraine and US$20.5 billion for US Armed Forces support in Europe.

It also includes US$9.5 billion in economic aid to Ukraine structured as a forgivable loan, an idea that former President Trump gave life to when the Senate passed a previous version of the US$95 billion assistance package in February.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, who worked for months to get Ukraine aid passed, hailed the vote as a landmark moment.

“Today the Senate sends a unified message to the entire world. America will always defend democracy in its hour of need. We tell our allies we will stand with you. We tell our adversaries don’t mess with us,” Schumer declared on the Senate floor.

McConnell took to the floor to hail the prosperity the United States has enjoyed because it’s a global leader but told colleagues that that leadership comes with responsibilities to allies who help maintain peace and order throughout much of the world.

And he chastised colleagues who dragged out the debate over helping Ukraine based on what he called the “sheer fiction” that supporting the war is not a vital national security interest.

Warmongers approve US$95 billion package

The US House of Representatives on Saturday with broad bipartisan support passed a US$95 billion legislative package providing security assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, over bitter objections from Republican hardliners, reports Reuters.

Passage of the long-awaited legislation was closely watched by US defense contractors, who are in line for huge contracts to supply equipment for Ukraine and other US partners.

The legislation now proceeds to the Democratic majority Senate, which passed a similar measure more than two months ago. US leaders from Democratic President Joe Biden to top Senate Republican Mitch McConnell had been urging embattled Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson to bring it up for a vote.

The Senate is set to begin considering the House-passed bill on Tuesday, with some preliminary votes that afternoon. Final passage was expected sometime next week, which would clear the way for Biden to sign it into law.

The bills provide U$60.84 billion to address the conflict in Ukraine, including US$23 billion to replenish US weapons, stocks and facilities; US$26 billion for Israel, including US$9.1 billion for humanitarian needs, and US$8.12 billion for the Indo-Pacific, including Taiwan

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed his thanks, saying US lawmakers moved to keep "history on the right track."

"The vital US aid bill passed today by the House will keep the war from expanding, save thousands and thousands of lives, and help both of our nations to become stronger," Zelenskiy said on X.

The Biden administration is already finalizing its next assistance package for Ukraine so it can announce the new tranche of aid soon after the bill becomes law in order to meet Ukraine’s urgent battlefield needs, a White House official said.

Biden, who had urged Congress since last year to approve the additional aid to Ukraine, said in a statement, "It comes at a moment of grave urgency, with Israel facing unprecedented attacks from Iran and Ukraine under continued bombardment from Russia."

The vote on passage of the Ukraine funding was 311-112. Significantly, 112 Republicans opposed the legislation, with only 101 in support.

"Mike Johnson is a lame duck ... he's done," far-right Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene told reporters afterward.

Marjorie has been a leading opponent of helping Ukraine in its war against Russia and has taken steps that threaten to remove Johnson from office over this issue. Greene stopped short of doing so on Saturday.

During the vote, several lawmakers waved small Ukrainian flags as it became clear that element of the package was headed to passage. Johnson warned lawmakers that was a "violation of decorum."

The House's actions during a rare Saturday session put on display some cracks in what generally is solid support for Israel within Congress.

Recent months have seen progressive Democrats express anger with Israel's government and its conduct of the war in Gaza.

Saturday's vote, in which the Israel aid was passed 366-58, had 37 Democrats and 21 Republicans in opposition.

Johnson this week chose to ignore ouster threats by hardline members of his fractious 218-213 majority and push forward the measure that includes Ukraine funding as it struggles to fight off a two-year Russian invasion.

The unusual four-bill package also includes a measure that includes a threat to ban the Chinese-owned social media app TikTok and the potential transfer of seized Russian assets to Ukraine.

Some hardline Republicans voicing strong opposition to further Ukraine aid argued the United States can ill afford it given its rising $34 trillion national debt. They have repeatedly raised the threat of ousting Johnson, who became speaker in October after his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, was ousted by party hardliners.

"It's not the perfect legislation, it's not the legislation that we would write if Republicans were in charge of both the House, the Senate, and the White House," Johnson told reporters on Friday. "This is the best possible product that we can get under these circumstances to take care of these really important obligations."

Representative Bob Good, chair of the hardline House Freedom Caucus, told reporters on Friday that the bills represent a "slide down into the abyss of greater fiscal crisis and America-last policies that reflect Biden and (Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck) Schumer and (House Democratic leader Hakeem) Jeffries, and don't reflect the American people."

But Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, who carries huge influence in the party, on April 12 voiced support for Johnson and in a Thursday social media post said Ukraine's survival is important for the US.

Gold price tops US$2,200 an ounce

Gold finally surpassed US$2,200 an ounce for the first time on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve indicated that it would press ahead with three rate cuts in 2024 despite elevated inflation.

Spot gold set a new record of US$2,222.39 during the early hours of trading, before retreating to US$2,206.10. US gold futures soared 2.4% to US$2,208.20.

Gold’s latest rally, which started mid-February, is underpinned by longstanding tailwinds including heightened geopolitical risks and increased central bank buying. During March 2024 alone, the safe-haven metal hit new highs on five occasions.

Its rapid ascent, according to Bloomberg columnists has surprised many seasoned market observers, as there hasn’t been a clear catalyst. What has been partially driving bullion is expectations for looser monetary policy in the United States, and that has now been reaffirmed by the Fed.

On Wednesday, Fed chair Jerome Powell continued to highlight officials would like to see more evidence that prices are coming down, but it’s still likely in most people’s view that we will achieve that confidence and there will be rate cuts, he said.

“What we saw last night was the green light really for gold traders to come back in,” said Chris Weston, head of research for Pepperstone Group.

“The Fed have said that right now they’re tolerant of the inflation that we’ve seen, they’re tolerant that the labor market strength is not going to be the impediment,” Weston told Bloomberg.

Speculation around the timing of the Fed’s long-anticipated pivot may have provided the trigger for recent gains, with data showing that traders boosted their net long positions on gold in the week through March 05 by the most since 2019.

The metal stands to benefit even more when US interest rates actually do come down, as bullion-backed exchange traded funds look likely to increase their holdings, according to UBS Group.

On the geopolitical front, there are a number of risks boosting gold’s allure as a haven asset, Russia appears to be gaining the upper hand in its war in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas conflict continues unabated and has led to a re-routing of global shipping, while the US presidential election at later this year could prove massively consequential for markets.

Chinese buying has also underpinned prices. As well as the central bank, people have been stocking up on coins, gold bars and jewelry to safeguard their wealth from a year long property downturn and losses in the country’s stock market.

Putin’s victory attracts mixed reactions

Western governments lined up on Monday to condemn Vladimir Putin's landslide election victory as unfair and undemocratic, but China, India and North Korea congratulated the veteran Russian leader on extending his rule by a further six years.

The contrasting reactions underscored the geopolitical fault lines that have gaped wider since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago, triggering the deepest crisis in relations with the West since the end of the Cold War.

Arriving in Brussels on Monday, EU foreign ministers roundly dismissed the election result as a sham ahead of agreeing sanctions on individuals linked to the mistreatment and death of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny.

"Russia's election was an election without choice," German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said at the start of the meeting.

Playing on Moscow's reference to its war in Ukraine as a special military operation, French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne said Paris had taken note of the special election operation.

"The conditions for a free, pluralistic and democratic election were not met," his ministry said.

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said the election outcome highlighted the depth of repression in Russia.

"Putin removes his political opponents, controls the media, and then crowns himself the winner. This is not democracy," Cameron said.

France, Britain and others condemned the fact that Russia had also held its election in occupied regions of Ukraine that it claims to have annexed during the war.

The Kremlin dismissed such criticism, saying the 87% of the vote won by Putin during the three-day election showed that the Russian people were consolidating around him.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia's election had no legitimacy.

A White House spokesperson on Sunday said Russia's election was obviously not free nor fair. President Joe Biden has not yet commented.

In sharp contrast, Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated Putin, and said Beijing would maintain close communication with Moscow to promote the no limits partnership they agreed in 2022, just before Russia invaded Ukraine.

"I believe that under your leadership, Russia will certainly be able to achieve greater achievements in national development and construction," Xi told Putin in his message, according to Xinhua News.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi echoed that message, saying he looked forward to strengthening New Delhi's time-tested special and privileged strategic partnership with Moscow.

India and China, along with Russia, are members of the BRICS group of emerging economies that aims to challenge US domination of the global economy.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi, accused by the West of supplying weapons to Russia, also extended congratulations to Putin, stressing their desire for further expansion of bilateral relations with Moscow.

In Africa, where the West has been struggling to win support for its efforts to isolate Moscow over the Ukraine war, some newspapers saw Putin's re-election as reinforcing the stance of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.

Those three states in the Sahel region have strengthened ties with Russia following coups in recent years at the expense of their traditional French and US allies.

"In Africa, this re-election could sound like a non-event, but given the context in the Sahel it takes on a particular meaning, because Putin embodies the new geopolitical balance of power on the continent with a growing (Russian) presence and influence," said Burkina Faso daily Aujourd'hui au Faso".

 

 

Netherlands to supply drones to Ukraine

The Netherlands is joining a military coalition with allies including Britain that will supply Ukraine with advanced drone technology and bolster its offensive capabilities in the war against Russia, the Dutch defence minister said.

The pledge from the Netherlands comes in addition to F-16 fighter jets, artillery, ammunition and air defence systems provided by the Dutch to Kyiv.

For the Netherlands, there may be additional costs on top of 2 billion euros earmarked already for 2024, Dutch Defence Minister Kasja Ollongren told Reuters in an interview ahead of two days of NATO defence ministers’ meetings in Brussels starting on Wednesday.

"We know of course that drones are very important in this war," Ollongren said. "That's why we are joining the drone coalition that Ukraine has started together with Latvia, together with other countries, to make sure that we do just that - increase production, use the latest technology and to provide exactly what Ukraine needs."

Ukraine's Defence Ministry announced Britain's participation last month.

Drones have become a crucial part of both Ukraine and Russia's wartime strategies for reconnaissance and striking targets, thanks in large part to their relatively low cost.

Both sides are now using thousands of small, inexpensive drones originally built for enthusiasts and racers to conduct battlefield-level surveillance and attacks, while also growing their fleets of larger, longer-distance unmanned craft which can fly much further and carry heavier cameras or more explosives.

Both Britain and the Netherlands had already been helping Ukraine build out its drone fleet.

"What is new is that we are now forming this coalition. So we're connecting, let's say, the things that we're doing separately into one coalition that will be able to respond to the new demands of Ukraine, as they see the battle developing on the frontline. And I think that's the strength of this coalition," she said at her offices in The Hague.

Ukraine intends to manufacture thousands of long-range drones capable of deep strikes into Russia in 2024 and already has up to 10 companies working on production, Ukraine's digital minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, said in a Reuters interview on Monday.

By working together, the coalition will be able to respond to Kyiv's changing wartime tactics.

"And I think that's going to be the strength of this coalition, to be able to provide in the very short term what they need," she said.

Ollongren said the Netherlands will contribute high-tech expertise from the commercial sector, but declined to provide technical or financial details.

 

United States to transfer weapons seized from Iran to Ukraine

According to Saudi Gazette, the United States will transfer thousands of seized Iranian weapons and rounds of ammunition to Ukraine, in a move that could help to alleviate some of the critical shortages facing the Ukrainian military as it awaits more money and equipment from the US and its allies.

US Central Command has already transferred over one million rounds of seized Iranian ammunition to the Ukrainian armed forces, it announced on Wednesday. The transfer was conducted on Monday, CENTCOM said in a press release.

“The government obtained ownership of these munitions on July 20, 2023, through the Department of Justice’s civil forfeiture claims against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC),” the statement says.

The Justice Department announced in March that it was seeking the forfeiture of one million rounds of Iranian ammunition, thousands of proximity fuses for rocket-propelled grenades, and thousands of pounds of propellant for rocket-propelled grenades that the Navy seized from Iran as it was in transit to Yemen.

“These munitions were originally seized by US Central Command naval forces from the transiting stateless dhow MARWAN 1, December 09, 2022. The munitions were being transferred from the IRGC to the Houthis in Yemen in violation of the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2216,” the statement says.

The Biden administration for months has been weighing how to legally send the seized weapons, which are stored in CENTCOM facilities across the Middle East, to the Ukrainians.

Over the past year, the US Navy has seized thousands of Iranian assault rifles and more than one million rounds of ammunition from vessels used by Iran to ship weapons to Yemen. The seizures, frequently carried out with regional partner forces, target small stateless vessels on routes historically used to smuggle weapons to the Houthis in Yemen.

In mid-January 2023, the US assisted French forces in the seizure of 3,000 assault rifles headed from Iran to Yemen, as well as 23 anti-tank guided missiles. Following the seizure, the US took custody of the confiscated weapons.

That illegal weapons interdiction capped a two month period in which the US and its partners seized a total of 5,000 weapons and 1.6 million rounds of ammunition, according to Central Command.

Justice Department and defense officials have been working together to find a legal pathway to send the weapons to Ukraine, officials said, and one way is through the US’ civil forfeiture authorities.

The Justice Department has filed at least two forfeiture complaints against seized Iranian ammunition and weapons this year. Apart from the announcement in March, DOJ announced in July that that it was seeking the forfeiture of “over 9,000 rifles, 284 machine guns, approximately 194 rocket launchers, over 70 anti-tank guided missiles, and over 700,000 rounds of ammunition” seized from Iran by the US Navy.

“At the end of the day, Ukraine needs various supplies for the war effort, and while this isn’t a solution to all of Ukraine’s military needs, it will provide critical support,” said Jonathan Lord, a senior fellow and director of the Middle East security program at the Center for a New American Security who pushed the US to send the seized Iranian weapons to Ukraine in an op-ed in February 2023.

Lord added that the move could also have implications for Iran’s relationship with Russia.

“For over a year, Iranian UAVs in the hands of the Russian military have been used to attack and murder Ukrainian civilians,” Lord said. “There is poetic justice in Ukraine utilizing seized Iranian weapons to defend its people against Russia’s criminal invasion and abuses. Additionally, this policy may put greater pressure on the burgeoning relationship between Moscow and Tehran.”

The decision could drive a wedge between Iran and Russia, which have formed a de facto defense partnership over the last several months, with Iran supplying Russia with drones for its war in Ukraine and Russia cooperating with Iran on missile and air defense production.

War is good for business, mantra of military industrial complexes

Military industrial complex players big and small gathered in London this month, hawking everything from long-range missiles to gold plated pistols to arms fair attendees—including representatives of horrific human rights violators—as weapon-makers and other merchants of the machinery of death reap record profits.

"War is good for business," one defense executive attending the biennial Defense and Security Equipment International (DSEI) conference at ExCel London flat-out told Reuters. "We are extremely busy," Michael Elmore, head of sales at the UK-based armored steelmaker MTL Advanced, told the media agency.

Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine and the West's scramble to arm Ukrainian homeland defenders have been a bonanza for arms-makers.

"Ukraine is a very interesting combination of First and Second World War technologies and very modern technology," Kuldar Vaarsi, CEO of the Estonian unmanned ground vehicle firm MILREM, told Reuters.

Saber-rattling and fearmongering by government, media, and business figures amid rising tensions between the US and its allies on one side, and a fast-rising China on the other, have also spurred military spending, including Japan's US$320 billion buildup announced last December.

"We think this is a longer-term essentially 'sea change' in national defense strategy for the U.S. and for our Western allies," Jim Taiclet, CEO of US arms giant Lockheed Martin, told investors during a call earlier this summer announcing higher-than-expected sales and profit outlooks.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the United States, Russia, France, China, and Germany were the world's top arms exporters from 2018-22, with the five nations accounting for 76% of all weapons exports during that period. The U.S. accounted for nearly 40% of such exports during those five years, while increasing its dominance in the arms trade. The US also remains by far the world's biggest military spender.

In addition to major corporations, middlemen like Marc Morales have also been profiting handsomely from wars in countries including Ukraine. Morales happened to have a warehouse full of ammunition in Bulgaria that the Pentagon originally intended for Afghanistan when Russia invaded its neighbor, and he has been richly rewarded as the US spends tens of billions of dollars arming Ukrainian forces. He named his new US$10 million yacht Trigger Happy.

Outside the sprawling ExCel convention center in London's Docklands, anti-war protesters rallied against the global arms trade and the death and destruction it fuels. The Guardian reported that at least a dozen demonstrators were arrested during the course of the conference, including nine on Thursday for blocking a road outside the venue.

Sam Perlo-Freeman, a researcher at the Campaign Against Arms Trade (CAAT), told The Guardian that a lot of countries that are being talked about as new arms export markets are ones we would be concerned about.

"Egypt is a repressive regime and Vietnam an absolute dictatorship," Perlo-Freeman added. "Indonesia is involved in brutality in West Papua."

Emily Apple, also of CAAT, told People's World that the companies exhibiting read as who is who of the world's worst arms dealers.

"Israel is an apartheid state, and it is disgusting that the UK is not only selling weapons to Israel but encouraging Israeli arms companies to sell their weapons in London," she continued.

"Representatives from regimes such as Saudi Arabia, who have used UK made weapons to commit war crimes in Yemen, will be wined and dined and encouraged to buy yet more arms."

"Deals done at DSEI will cause misery across the world, causing global instability, and devastate people's lives," Apple added.

Inside ExCel, it was business as usual. Pressed by Declassified UK chief reporter Phil Miller on why Britain's right-wing government supports selling arms to the Saudi dictatorship that sentences someone to death for tweeting, Minister of State for the Armed Forces James Heappey deflected.

Private sector leaders, however, have been more forthcoming. As Raytheon CEO Greg Hayes opined during a 2021 investor call touting the company's solid growth, "Peace is not going to break out in the Middle East anytime soon."

 

Developing countries facing debt problem

According to Reuters, the persistent and damaging debt problems gripping a number of developing nations will be a core topic during the G20 summit in Delhi next month. Following is the recap of economies in the countries currently facing problems:

ZAMBIA

Zambia was the first African country to default during the COVID-19 pandemic and after a long-awaited burst of progress in recent months finally looks to be closing in on a repair plan.

In June, it clinched a US$6.3 billion debt rework deal with the Paris Club creditor nations and its other big bilateral lender China. The details are still being worked on, but the government also hopes to reach a deal in the coming months with the international funds that hold its unpaid sovereign bonds.

The progress has also been cheered as a success for the struggling G20 Common Framework initiative, which was set up during the pandemic to try to streamline debt restructurings but has been hard to make work in practice.

SRI LANKA

Sri Lanka announced a debt overhaul plan at the end of June and has continued to make progress since, albeit not everywhere.

Nearly all holders of its domestic, dollar-denominated Sri Lanka Development Bonds (SLDBs) agreed to exchange their bonds into five new Sri Lankan rupee-dominated notes that will mature between 2025 and 2033.

Another part of the domestic debt plan has faced delays, though, with a key deadline on a Treasury bond exchange delayed three times and now set for Septemer 11, 2023.

Central bank chief Nandalal Weerasinghe has said the country's big foreign creditors such as India and China are awaiting the conclusion of the domestic debt operation before continuing discussions.

He said negotiations will be held in parallel with the first review of its US$2.9 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout program due from 14-27 September. Failure to complete the domestic debt overhaul by then could result in delays both in terms of IMF disbursements and talks with creditors.

GHANA

Ghana defaulted on most of its external debt at the end of last year. It is the fourth country to seek a rework under the Common Framework and is aiming to reduce its international debt payments by US$10.5 billion over the next three years.

Its progress has been relatively swift compared to the likes of Zambia. The government recently agreed to tackle roughly US$4 billion of its domestic debt via a pension fund debt swap operation and a dollar-denominated bonds exchange.

It has sent a restructuring plan to its official sector - wealthier government - creditors and its finance minister has said he also expects to reach a deal with the country's bondholders by the end of the year.

The funds know it will require them to write off money but hope it could also include a recovery instrument that would mean Ghana pays back more of that money over time if its economy recovers quickly.

PAKISTAN

Pakistan needs upwards of $22 billion to service external debt and pay other bills for fiscal year 2024.

A caretaker administration is in charge until an election that must take place by November. Inflation and interest rates are at historic highs, and it is struggling to rebuild from devastating 2022 floods.

In June 2023, Pakistan reached an 11th-hour deal with the IMF for a US$3 billion bailout, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE followed with US$2 billion and US$1 billion cash infusions.

Reserves, which had fallen to US$3.5 billion, had rebounded to US$7.8 billion by late August. Observers say it could have enough to make it to the elections but there are major questions about how long it will be able to avoid default without huge support.

TUNISIA

The North African nation, reeling from multiple hits since a 2011 revolution, is facing a full-blown economic crisis.

Most debt is internal but foreign loan repayments are due later this year and credit ratings agencies have said Tunisia could default.

President Kais Saied has slammed the terms required to unlock US$1.9 billion from the IMF as diktats that he will not meet.

Saudi Arabia pledged a US$400 million soft loan, and a US$100 million grant, but the tourism-dependent economy continues to grapple with shortages in imported food and medicine. The European Union has offered about US$1.1 billion (one billion euros)in support but that appears to be mostly pegged to the IMF deal or reforms.

EGYPT

Egypt remains another of the big countries seen as at risk of falling into trouble. North Africa's largest economy has around US$100 billion of hard currency - mainly dollar-denominated - debt to pay over the next five years, including a meaty US$3.3 billion bond next year and the government spends over 40% of its revenues just on debt interest payments.

Cairo has a US$3 billion IMF program and has devalued the pound by roughly 50% since February 2022. But a privatization plan is still on the go-slow and last month it veered away from its IMF plan by saying it would keep subsidized electricity prices unchanged until January.

Some of its government bonds are changing hands at half their face value and analysts think a key factor in whether it can get back on track is the amount of support wealthy Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia provide going forward.

EL SALVADOR

El Salvador has shifted from doom and default to bond market darling, propelled by two surprise debt buybacks and the appointment of a former IMF official as adviser to the finance ministry.

In summer 2022, its 2025 eurobond fell to just under 27 cents on the dollar, weighed down by high debt service costs and worries over its financing plans and fiscal policies.

The same bond traded at 91.50 cents on August 31, and its debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 77% in December 2022, the lowest since 2019, and is forecast to drop another percentage point this year, according to Refinitiv data.

It’s now relatively light debt repayment schedule through 2027, and the sky-high popularity of President Nayib Bukele, has assuaged fears the country could default.

KENYA

The East African nation's public debt stands at nearly 70% of GDP, according to the World Bank, putting it at high risk of debt distress.

President William Ruto's government has moderated spending and proposed a raft of tax hikes, assuaging some concerns of an imminent default.

The African Development Bank is in talks with Kenya over US$80.6 million to help it plug its financing gaps this year, and it is also discussing budgetary support from the World Bank.

But concerns remain; Ruto's political opposition has opposed many of his tax hikes, and protests have forced him to pause some reforms, such as fuel subsidy cuts.

UKRAINE

Ukraine froze debt payments in 2022 in the wake of Russia's invasion. It has said it is likely to decide early next year whether to try to extend that agreement or begin looking at potentially more complex alternatives.

Top institutions estimate the post-war rebuild cost will be at least one trillion euros, and the IMF estimates Ukraine needs $3-$4 billion a month to keep the country running.

If the war with Russia is not won or at least eased to a much lower intensity by next year, its debt restructuring dilemma will also have to factor in the November 2024 US Presidential election and the degree of support it would receive should Donald Trump or another Republican candidate win office.

LEBANON

Lebanon has been in default since 2020 with few signs its problems will be resolved any time some.

The IMF has issued stark warnings, but one bit of progress in the last couple of months has been a proposal by the central bank to lift the long-time peg on the country's local currency,

 

US proxy war in Ukraine: Keeping Moscow preoccupied to orchestrate moves against China

The United States always wanted to lock Moscow into a costly military quagmire with the goal of weakening Russia, and to this day it openly boasts about all this war is doing to advance US interests.

United States has kept this war going, using Ukrainian bodies as a giant sponge to soak up as many expensive military explosives as possible to drain Russian coffers while advancing US energy interests in Europe. The sole purpose is to keep Moscow preoccupied while the United States orchestrates its next move against China.

Last month The Washington Post’s David Ignatius wrote an article explaining why westerners shouldn’t feel gloomy about how things are going in Ukraine, writing the following about how much this war is doing to benefit US interests overseas.

“Meanwhile, for the United States and its NATO allies, these 18 months of war have been a strategic windfall, at relatively low cost (other than for the Ukrainians). The West’s most reckless antagonist has been rocked. NATO has grown much stronger with the additions of Sweden and Finland. Germany has weaned itself from dependence on Russian energy and, in many ways, rediscovered its sense of values. NATO squabbles make headlines, but overall, this has been a triumphal summer for the alliance.”

Everyone who has been supporting this horrifying proxy war should have that paragraph tattooed on their forehead

First commercial ship leaves Ukraine port since February 2022

According to Seatrade Maritime News, Joseph Schulte is the first commercial ship to leave Odessa port of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports on Wednesday, since the beginning of the war in February 2022.

The 9,400 teu Joseph Schulte, owned by German company Bernard Schulte and had been operated by MSC, which has been docked in the war-torn port of Odessa since the conflict in Ukraine began left for Turkey, ostensibly under ballast.

In July the Russians refused to renew the agreement that allowed bulk vessels to operate the grain corridor, exporting foodstuff to maintain populations in the Middle East and Africa.

In bringing that agreement to an end Russia effectively renewed its blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports for commercial as well as military shipping. The departure of the Hong Kong flagged Joseph Schulte from Odessa will test Russia’s resolve to maintain that blockade.

On 13 August a Russian Navy vessel, fired warning shots across the bow of the Palau-flagged Sukru Okan, with troops boarding and searching the bulk carrier.

Nevertheless, Daniil Melnychenko, an analyst at transport consultancy Informall, based in Odessa, told Seatrade Maritime News, “The expectations are that Türkiye flagged ships that were stuck here in Ukraine since the beginning of the war will also leave the big Odessa regional ports.”

According to Melnychenko many of the bulk carriers that have been docked in southern Ukraine are Turkish flagged vessels, so the departure of the container ship has heightened expectations that others will follow.

VesselsValue reports suggest that the Joseph Schulte vessel, which MSC has confirmed is no longer in its fleet, will first call at the Luk Sintez Oil Terminal to load bunkers. It will then sail to the Turkish port of Ambarli on the north shore of the Marmara Sea, on the European side of Istanbul, to offload the few containers on board and for inspection.

Melnychenko added that the vessel will likely be crewed by a mixture of Turkish and older Ukrainian men, over 60-years-old.

Ukraine drone hits Russian oil tanker

A Ukrainian drone full of explosives struck a Russian fuel tanker overnight near a bridge linking Russia to annexed Crimea, the second such attack in 24 hours, both sides said on Saturday.

No one was hurt, but the Crimean Bridge and ferry transport were suspended for several hours, according to Russian-installed officials in Crimea, which Moscow seized from Ukraine in 2014.

A Ukrainian intelligence source told Reuters that the drone with 450 kg of explosives hit the SIG vessel as it transported fuel for the Russian military in Ukrainian territorial waters.

"The tanker was well loaded with fuel, so the 'fireworks' were seen from afar," the source said, of the joint operation by Ukraine's navy and security service.

Kyiv says destroying Russia's military infrastructure inside Russia or on Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine is crucial to its counteroffensive after the February 2022 invasion.

Another drone attack on Russia's navy base at Novorossiysk damaged a warship on Friday, the first time the Ukrainian navy had projected its power so far from its shores.

And a Ukrainian government agency warned on Saturday that six Russian Black Sea ports - Anapa, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, Sochi, and Taman - were in war risk area.

Moscow has bombed Ukrainian ports since its withdrawal last month from an UN-brokered deal to let Ukraine export grain.

The SIG tanker had been supplying oil to Russian troops in Syria, according to Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-appointed official in Ukraine's southeastern region of Zaporizhzhia.

The United States imposed sanctions on the tanker and its owner, St. Petersburg-based Transpetrochart, in 2019 for helping provide jet fuel in Syria.

Vasyl Malyuk, head of Ukraine's SBU security service, did not directly confirm the latest attack but said any incident with Russian ships or the Crimean Bridge was "an absolutely logical and efficient step towards the enemy".

"Moreover, such special operations are conducted in the territorial waters of Ukraine and are completely legal," Malyuk said on the Telegram messaging app.

Russia's Novorossiysk Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre was quoted by the RIA news agency as saying there was no fuel spill from the SIG, as the ship had been carrying only technical ballast. Recovery work was underway with two tugboats nearby.

Rogov posted an audio clip on Telegram in which the SIG requested a tow. He also posted pictures of what he described as shattered fixtures and equipment inside the vessel.

"The SIG tanker ... received a hole in the engine room near the waterline on the starboard side, preliminarily as a result of a sea drone attack," Russia's Federal Marine and River Transport agency said in a statement on Telegram.

The Moscow-installed authorities in Crimea said the bridge, which was completed by Russia in 2018 and has come under serious attack twice in the war, was not targeted.

 

World must condemn Ukraine for using cluster munitions

This morning I was disgusted to the maximum after reading National Security Spokesman John Kirby saying, "They are using them appropriately," Kirby said. "They're using them effectively and they are actually having an impact on Russia's defensive formations and Russia's defensive maneuvering. I think I can leave it at that," he added. I want the world to condemn both, the United Stated for the supplying clusters and Ukraine for using the lethal bomb.

On July 16, 2023 I had posted a blog, its title was “US lust for carnage and destruction” and also stated, the decision by the United States to provide Ukraine with the M864 DPICM round is driven by one thing and one thing only lust for carnage and destruction. 

The White House has confirmed that Ukraine is using cluster bombs supplied by the United States against Russian forces. National Security Spokesman John Kirby said initial feedback suggested these were being used effectively on Russian defensive positions and operations.

It may be recalled that the cluster bombs scatter multiple bomblets and are banned by more than 100 states due to their threat to civilians. Despite the fact the US agreed to supply these to boost Ukrainian ammunition supplies.

Ukraine has promised the bombs will only be used to dislodge concentrations of Russian enemy soldiers.

"They are using them appropriately," Kirby said. "They're using them effectively and they are actually having an impact on Russia's defensive formations and Russia's defensive maneuvering. I think I can leave it at that."

The US decided to send cluster bombs after Ukraine warned that it was running out of ammunition during its summer counter-offensive, which has been slower and more costly than many had hoped.

President Joe Biden called the decision very difficult, while its allies the UK, Canada, New Zealand and Spain opposed their use.

The vast majority sent are artillery shells with a lower than 2.35% "dud rate", a reference to the percentage of bomblets which do not explode immediately and can remain a threat for years.

The weapons are effective when used against troops in trenches and fortified positions, as they render large areas too dangerous to move around in until cleared.

Russia has used similar cluster bombs in Ukraine since it launched its full-scale invasion last year, including in civilian areas.

Reacting to the US decision to send the bombs, Russian President Vladimir Putin said his country had similar weapons and they would be used "if they are used against us".

Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Ukrainian general in charge of operations in the country's east, told the BBC last week that his forces needed the weapons to inflict maximum damage on enemy infantry.

"We'd like to get very fast results, but in reality it's practically impossible. The more infantry who die here, the more their relatives back in Russia will ask their government 'why?'"

He added cluster bombs would not solve all our problems.

He also acknowledged that their use was controversial, but added, "If the Russians didn't use them, perhaps conscience would not allow us to do it too."

US cluster munitions sale to Ukraine must be stopped

The world has not really raised voice against the US proxy war going on in Ukraine since February 2022. Little effort has been made for establishing truce. On the contrary, the United States and its allies have sent the latest as well as outdated arms worth billions of dollars to Ukraine. 

The latest news is that the US is getting ready to supply banned cluster munitions to Ukraine. This shipment must be stopped to save hundreds of civilians who may dies due to its indiscriminate use.

According to Reuters, the United States announced on Friday that it would supply Ukraine with widely banned cluster munitions for its counteroffensive against occupying Russian forces.

Rights groups and the United Nations secretary-general questioned Washington's decision on the munitions, part of an US$800 million security package that brings total US military aid to more than US$40 billion since Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who describes the conflict as a "special military operation" to protect Russian security, has said the US and its allies were fighting an expanding proxy war.

The cluster munitions will deliver in a time frame that is relevant for the counteroffensive, a Pentagon official told reporters.

Cluster munitions are prohibited by more than 100 countries. Russia, Ukraine and the United States have not signed on to the Convention on Cluster Munitions, which bans production, stockpiling, use and transfer of the weapons.

They typically release large numbers of smaller bomblets that can kill indiscriminately over a wide area. Those that fail to explode pose a danger for decades after a conflict ends.

Ukraine has provided written assurances that it is going to use these in a very careful way to minimize risks to civilians, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said.

US President Joe Biden described the decision on cluster bombs as difficult but said Ukraine needed them.

Human Rights Watch has accused Russian and Ukrainian forces of using cluster munitions, which have killed civilians.

Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov criticized the transfer of these weapons to Ukraine by the US.

"The cruelty and cynicism with which Washington has approached the issue of transferring lethal weapons to Kyiv is striking," TASS news agency on Friday quoted Antonov as saying.

"Now, by the fault of the US, there will be a risk for many years that innocent civilians will be blown up by submunitions that have failed."

Ukraine says it has taken back some villages in southern Ukraine since the counteroffensive began in early June, but that it lacks the firepower and air cover to make faster progress.

"It's too early to judge how the counteroffensive is going one way or the other because we're at the beginning of the middle," Colin Kahl, the US under secretary of defense for policy, told reporters.

Erdogan demands Black Sea grain deal extension

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday that he was pressing Russia to extend a Black Sea grain deal by at least three months and announced a visit by President Vladimir Putin in August.

Turkey, a NATO member, has managed to retain cordial relations with both Russia and Ukraine over the past 16 months of the war and last year it helped to broker prisoner exchanges. Turkey has not joined its Western allies in imposing economic sanctions on Russia but has also supplied arms to Ukraine and called for its sovereignty to be respected.

He was speaking at a joint news conference with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy after the two parties met to discuss the fate of an arrangement, brokered last year by Turkey and the United Nations, to allow for the safe export of grain from Ukrainian ports via the Black Sea despite the war.

Zelenskiy's visit followed stops in Bulgaria and the Czech Republic, part of a tour of some NATO capitals aimed at encouraging them to take concrete steps at a summit next week towards granting Kyiv membership of the alliance, which Erdogan said Ukraine deserved.

Erdogan said work was under way on extending the Black Sea grain deal beyond its expiration date of July 17 and for longer periods beyond that. The deal would be one of the most important issues on the agenda for his meeting with Putin in Turkey next month, he said.

"Our hope is that it will be extended at least once every three months, not every two months. We will make an effort in this regard and try to increase the duration of it to two years," he said at the news conference with Zelenskiy.

Both men said they had also discussed another key question for Erdogan's talks with Putin ‑ the question of prisoner exchanges, which Zelenskiy said had been the first thing on their agenda. "I hope we will get a result from this soon," Erdogan said.

Zelenskiy said he would wait for a result to comment but made clear the discussion had gone into specifics on returning all captives including children deported to Russia and other groups.

"We are working on the return of our captives, political prisoners, Crimean Tatars," he said, referring to members of Ukraine's Muslim community in the peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014. "Our partners have all the lists. We are really working on this."

Erdogan said the issue could also come up in his contacts with the Russian leader before his visit. "If we make some phone calls before that, we will discuss it on the call as well," he said.

The Kremlin said it would be watching the talks closely, saying Putin has highly appreciated the mediation of Erdogan in attempting to resolve the conflict in Ukraine.

"As for forthcoming contacts between Putin and Erdogan, we do not rule them out in the foreseeable future," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters ahead of the Istanbul talks with Zelenskiy, which began on Friday.

Russia, angry about aspects of the grain deal's implementation, has threatened not to allow its further extension beyond July 17.

 

Iran accused of supplying drones to Russia

The White House said on Friday that Russia appeared to be deepening its defense cooperation with Iran and had received hundreds of one-way attack drones that it is using to strike Ukraine.

Citing newly declassified information, the White House said the drones, or Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), were built in Iran, shipped across the Caspian Sea and then used by Russian forces against Ukraine.

"Russia has been using Iranian UAVs in recent weeks to strike Kyiv and terrorize the Ukrainian population, and the Russia-Iran military partnership appears to be deepening," White House spokesman John Kirby said in a statement.

"We are also concerned that Russia is working with Iran to produce Iranian UAVs from inside Russia."

Kirby said the US had information that Russia was receiving materials from Iran required to build a drone manufacturing plant that could be fully operational early next year.

"We are releasing satellite imagery of the planned location of this UAV manufacturing plant in Russia’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone," he said.

The US has previously sanctioned Iranian executives at a defense manufacturer over drone supplies to Russia. Iran has acknowledged sending drones to Russia but said these were sent before Russia's February invasion. Moscow has denied its forces used Iranian drones in Ukraine.

A White House official said Iran had transferred several hundred drones to Russia since August last year.

Support between Iran and Russia was flowing both ways, Kirby said, with Iran seeking billions of dollars worth of military equipment from Russia including helicopters and radars.

"Russia has been offering Iran unprecedented defense cooperation, including on missiles, electronics, and air defense," he said.

"This is a full-scale defense partnership that is harmful to Ukraine, to Iran’s neighbors, and to the international community. We are continuing to use all the tools at our disposal to expose and disrupt these activities including by sharing this with the public – and we are prepared to do more."

Kirby said the transfers of drones constituted a violation of United Nations rules and the United States would seek to hold the two countries accountable.

Britain, France, Germany, the US and Ukraine say the supply of Iranian-made drones to Russia violates a 2015 UN Security Council resolution enshrining the Iran nuclear deal.

Under the 2015 UN resolution, a conventional arms embargo on Iran was in place until October 2020.

Ukraine and Western powers argue that the resolution includes restrictions on missiles and related technologies until October 2023 and can encompass the export and purchase of advanced military systems such as drones.

"We will continue to impose sanctions on the actors involved in the transfer of Iranian military equipment to Russia for use in Ukraine," Kirby said.

He said a new US advisory issued on Friday aimed "to help businesses and other governments better understand the risks posed by Iran’s UAV program and the illicit practices Iran uses to procure components for it."

The advisory highlighted key items sought by Iran for its development of drones, including electronics such as processors and controllers.

 

 

World military expenditure reaches new record high as European spending surges

Total global military expenditure increased by 3.7% in real terms in 2022, to reach a new high of US$2,240 billion. Military expenditure in Europe saw its steepest YoY increase in at least 30 years. The three largest spenders in 2022—the United States, China and Russia—accounted for 56% of the world total, according to new data on global military spending published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

World military spending grew for the eighth consecutive year in 2022 to an all-time high of US$2,240 billion. By far the sharpest rise in spending (13%) was seen in Europe and was largely accounted for by Russian and Ukrainian spending. However, military aid to Ukraine and concerns about a heightened threat from Russia strongly influenced many other states’ spending decisions, as did tensions in East Asia.

‘The continuous rise in global military expenditure in recent years is a sign that we are living in an increasingly insecure world,’ said Dr Nan Tian, Senior Researcher with SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program. ‘States are bolstering military strength in response to a deteriorating security environment, which they do not foresee improving in the near future.’

Military expenditure by states in Central and Western Europe totaled US$345 billion in 2022. In real terms, spending by these states for the first time surpassed that in 1989, as the cold war was ending, and was 30% higher than in 2013. Several states significantly increased their military spending following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, while others announced plans to raise spending levels over periods of up to a decade.

‘The invasion of Ukraine had an immediate impact on military spending decisions in Central and Western Europe. This included multi-year plans to boost spending from several governments,’ said Dr Diego Lopes da Silva, Senior Researcher with SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program. As a result, we can reasonably expect military expenditure in Central and Western Europe to keep rising in the years ahead.

Some of the sharpest increases were seen in Finland (up 36%), Lithuania (up 27%), Sweden ( up12%) and Poland (up 11%).

‘While the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 certainly affected military spending decisions in 2022, concerns about Russian aggression have been building for much longer,’ said Lorenzo Scarazzato, Researcher with SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program. ‘Many former Eastern bloc states have more than doubled their military spending since 2014, the year when Russia annexed Crimea.’

Russian military spending grew by an estimated 9.2% cent in 2022, to around US$86.4 billion. This was equivalent to 4.1% of Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022, up from 3.7% of GDP in 2021.

Numbers released by Russia in late 2022 show that spending on national defence, the largest component of Russian military expenditure, was already 34% higher, in nominal terms, than in budgetary plans drawn up in 2021.

‘The difference between Russia’s budgetary plans and its actual military spending in 2022 suggests the invasion of Ukraine has cost Russia far more than it anticipated,’ said Dr Lucie Béraud-Sudreau, Director of SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program.

Ukraine’s military spending reached US$44.0 billion in 2022. At 640%, this was the highest single-year increase in a country’s military expenditure ever recorded in SIPRI data. As a result of the increase and the war-related damage to Ukraine’s economy, the military burden (military spending as a share of GDP) shot up to 34% of GDP in 2022, from 3.2% in 2021.

The United States remains by far the world’s biggest military spender. US military spending reached US$877 billion in 2022, which was 39% of total global military spending and three times more than the amount spent by China, the world’s second largest spender.

The 0.7% real-terms increase in US spending in 2022 would have been even greater had it not been for the highest levels of inflation since 1981.

“The increase in the US military spending in 2022 was largely accounted for by the unprecedented level of financial military aid it provided to Ukraine,” said Dr Nan Tian, SIPRI Senior Researcher. “Given the scale of US spending, even a minor increase in percentage terms has a significant impact on the level of global military expenditure.”

US financial military aid to Ukraine totaled US$19.9 billion in 2022. Although this was the largest amount of military aid given by any country to a single beneficiary in any year since the cold war, it represented only 2.3% of total US military spending.

In 2022 the US allocated US$295 billion to military operations and maintenance, US$264 billion to procurement and research and development, and US$167 billion to military personnel.

China and Japan lead continued spending increase in Asia and Oceania. The combined military expenditure of countries in Asia and Oceania was US$575 billion. This was 2.7% more than in 2021 and 45% more than in 2013, continuing an uninterrupted upward trend dating back to at least 1989.

China remained the world’s second largest military spender, allocating an estimated US$292 billion in 2022. This was 4.2% more than in 2021 and 63% more than in 2013. China’s military expenditure has increased for 28 consecutive years.

Japan’s military spending increased by 5.9% between 2021 and 2022, reaching US$46.0 billion, or 1.1% of GDP. This was the highest level of Japanese military spending since 1960. A new national security strategy published in 2022 sets out ambitious plans to increase Japan’s military capability over the coming decade in response to perceived growing threats from China, North Korea and Russia.

“Japan is undergoing a profound shift in its military policy,’ said Xiao Liang, Researcher with SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program. “The post-war restraints Japan imposed on its military spending and military capabilities seem to be loosening.”

Rising concerns about US proxy war with Russia

Reportedly a number of Republican lawmakers, including three senators have expressed grave concerns about a United States proxy war with Russia.

“A proxy war with Russia in Ukraine is not in the strategic interest of the United States and risks an escalation that could spiral out of control” they warned in a letter to President Joe Biden.

The Ukraine war has entered its second year with no end in sight as Washington brushes aside any peace initiatives by third parties, the latest by China and Brazil.

The lawmakers warned that the American aid to Ukraine threatens further escalation while lacking much needed strategic clarity.

The United States is the number one financial sponsor of the war. To date, it has contributed US$113 billion, mostly in military assistance, which the lawmakers said is aimed to prop up a government that is historically mired in corruption.
They pointed out that this comes at a time when the American people suffer from record inflation and a crippling national debt.Time and again, the executive branch has used debt as a tool to finance foreign wars to the detriment of the American taxpayer.

The legislators have highlighted how the US strategy towards Ukraine is pushing Washington's two greatest adversaries closer together.

In early February 2022, the presidents of China and Russia reminded the world of their no limits partnership in their first face-to-face meeting in two years.

On Friday, China’s Foreign Ministry said no country has the right to interfere in its relationship with Russia, as the two sides are sovereign, independent countries.

A spokesperson said, "China and Russia follow the principle of no-alliance, no-confrontation and no-targeting of any third party and are committed to developing a new type of major-country relations featuring mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation. This is entirely different from the US practice of forming exclusive blocs and stoking bloc confrontation.

“Both China and Russia see the US as inextricably opposed to their interests and security. The depth of US involvement in Ukraine only gives credence to this narrative,” the letter said.

In their address to Biden, the American lawmakers said US national interests and those of the Ukrainian people are best served by encouraging negotiations to end the conflict. "We strongly urge you (Biden) to advocate for a negotiated peace".

Ironically, this is the same approach that the entire world has been advocating for, with the exception of the US-led NATO military alliance. 

Russia, in particular, has repeatedly warned that pouring weapons into Ukraine will only prolong the war and the suffering of the Ukrainian people.

“The current strategy of sanctions and drawn-out aid will only prolong the conflict, leading to escalation and more violence. Our national and economic security demands an alternative,” the lawmakers wrote. 

The letter pointed out US military assistance also extends to military training and intelligence support and warned of the risk of provoking a direct war with Russia.

"The extent of our aid makes it increasingly difficult to deny Russian accusations of US complicity in a proxy war. Vladimir Putin's advisors are already framing the conflict as a military confrontation Russia and NATO, and above all the United States and Britain, Russian tolerance for fighting a proxy war with NATO could run out at any point."

They added that Moscow's decision to take military action in Ukraine should be evidence enough of its willingness to use military force and should give us pause in continuing to push the limits at the risk of catastrophe.

"With every new aid package and every new weapon provided to Ukraine, the risk of direct conflict with Russia climbs," the letter added.

"The Biden administration’s virtual blank check funding of this conflict for as long as it takes, without any defined objectives or accountability, distracts from our country’s most pressing challenges."

“Unrestrained US aid for Ukraine must come to an end, and we will adamantly oppose all future aid packages unless they are linked to a clear diplomatic strategy designed to bring this war to a rapid conclusion.”

They also spoke of a delusional US strategy, which has made the US military weaker as it will take months or, in some cases, years to manufacture a depleted weapons stockpile being shipped to Kyiv.

“Should our actions entangle us in a confrontation with Russia now or should conflict erupt in the Indo-Pacific in the coming years, we fear that our military will be woefully unprepared to meet these challenges as a direct result of what has been shipped to Ukraine,” they said.

The senators and representatives also criticize the Biden administration’s decision to send High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) to the Ukrainian military. That decision was seen as a serious provocation, given the enhanced capabilities these weapons afforded, according to the lawmakers.

The letter mentions the Biden administration's plans to ship M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, which require months to ship and training for Ukrainian crews, and to send ground-launched small-diameter bombs, which would also require months to ship.

On top of the US$113 billion that Congress has authorized for Ukraine, the Biden administration is still drawing funds from the US$45 billion package approved in December 2022. That aid is expected to be exhausted by the summer, meaning the White House will likely ask Congress to authorize more funds soon.

In February, Representative Mathew Gaetz accused the Biden White House as well as members of both parties of spending tens of billions of dollars in Ukraine to keep a war going that does not satisfy any US national interest other than making US weapons manufacturers happy.

"How much more for Ukraine? Is there any limit?" Gaetz asked on the floor of the US House of Representatives. "Which billionth dollar really kicks in the door? Which redline we set will we not later cross?"

US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene recently told US media that Ukraine was not the 51st state and that she has to focus on fixing the problems her constituents and the American people are facing.

“We’re ignoring our own people’s problems... the United States needs to be pushing for peace in Ukraine, not funding a proxy war with Russia.”

“Politicians have given over US$100 billion of taxpayer money to Ukraine,” a spokesperson for Senator Rand Paul said. “Taxpayers deserve to have a full accounting of how their money is being used overseas, particularly before even more is asked of them and especially since priorities in our own nation are being neglected.”

The arguments against blank checks for Ukraine appear to be gaining popularity among regular Americans. The support for unconditional military aid has decreased notably, from 60% in May 2022 to 42% this February. The biggest drop has come from Republicans, according to a poll by The Associated Press-Norc Center for Public Affairs Research.

The letter comes as Ukraine received US-made Patriot surface-to-air guided missile systems, which will further satisfy US arms manufacturers.

G7 calls for extension full implementation and expansion of Black Sea grain deal

The Group of Seven (G7) economic powers called on Sunday for the extension, full implementation and expansion of a critical deal to export Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, the group's agriculture ministers said in a communiqué.

Brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, the deal was signed in Istanbul last July, allowing Ukraine to export more than 27 million tons of grain from several of its Black Sea ports.

Russia has strongly signaled that it will not allow the deal to continue beyond May 18 because a list of demands to facilitate its own grain and fertilizer exports has not been met.

In the communiqué after a two-day meeting in Miyazaki, Japan, the G7 agriculture ministers recognized the importance of the deal, saying, "We strongly support the extension, full implementation and expansion of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI)."

"We condemn Russia's attempts to use food as a means of destabilization and as tool of geopolitical coercion and reiterate our commitment to acting in solidarity and supporting those most affected by Russia's weaponization of food," the communiqué said.

G7 members stand ready to support recovery and reconstruction of Ukraine, including by providing expertise in de-mining of agricultural land and reconstruction of agricultural infrastructure, the document said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is scheduled to discuss the Ukraine Black Sea grain export deal with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres in New York.

 

Iran raises concerns over US biological labs in Ukraine

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani has reacted to reports that the United States has established military biological labs in Ukraine, saying the labs are deeply worrying.

“Reports about the US military biological labs in Ukraine and some other countries are deeply worrying,” Kanaani said on Twitter. 

He added, “These activities are in breach of the US's commitments, especially the Biological Weapons Convention, and pose a threat to humanity, hence they need an impartial international investigation.”

A Russian state Duma committee has recently released a report saying that Washington is building biological weapons all over the world, according to IRNA. 

American-made biological weapons are able to destroy not only human beings, but also animals and even agricultural products to cause irreparable economic damage to the enemy. 

The Russian investigation committee called the possibility of covert use of biological weapons as completely peaceful industrial products alarming.

The Russian Duma assessed the American biological weapons program as the greatest threat to the biological security of the world. “In recent years, the US biological weapons program has not only not been limited, but has become more aggressive,” it said. 

The presence of American biological laboratories in Africa, Asia, the Caucasus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine has provided the basis for collecting information on the biological infrastructure of the host countries, according to the Russian state Duma. 

 

French approach towards China not in line with the United States

High-profile diplomatic meetings on opposite sides of the world are underscoring growing tensions between the United States and Europe in how to engage with China.

French President Emmanuel Macron, on a three-day trip to China, is billing his outreach as an effort to recruit Chinese President Xi Jinping to play a major role in building peace between Ukraine and Russia, with an eye on reining in Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The summit comes as Chinese officials have warned of consequences and retaliation in response to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy hosting Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen in California.

McCarthy, speaking to reporters following his meeting with Tsai, said he hoped Macron asked Xi not to fund Russia’s war in Ukraine and reiterated that democracy makes the world safer and stronger.

“I hope he delivers a message that Americans meeting with President Tsai is positive for the same aspect that he is meeting with President Xi,” he said. 

The dueling diplomatic summits highlight the gap between the United States and Europe over how to deal with China.

While the Biden administration and lawmakers on both sides of the aisle describe Xi as working to reshape the world in the view of China’s authoritarian model, European leaders are less unified on the risks versus rewards of close ties with Beijing.

The Élysée Palace said Macron and President Biden, in a call ahead of the French leader’s trip, discussed a common desire to engage China to accelerate the end of the war in Ukraine and to participate in building a lasting peace in the region.

The administration was more reserved in its description of the conversation. Two-line readout from the White House simply stated that Biden and Macron talked about the French president’s upcoming travel and reiterated support for Ukraine. 

Macron’s visit, accompanied by dozens of business officials, highlights France’s focus on maintaining, if not strengthening, economic ties to China, even as the US has for months warned that Beijing is considering sending weapons to Russia for use in its war in Ukraine.

“I am convinced that China has a major role to play in building peace. This is what I have come to discuss, to move forward on,” Macron tweeted on Thursday. “With President Xi Jinping, we will also talk about our businesses, the climate and biodiversity, and food security.”

Xi has sought to portray himself as a global peacemaker. Alongside Macron on Thursday in Beijing, he said China is committed to facilitating peace talks and a settlement on the Ukraine crisis, affirmed that a nuclear war should never be fought, and that legitimate security concerns of all parties should be taken into account.

French officials say they do not see a conflict of interest between maintaining trade ties with China while trying to engage Xi to act more responsibly.

“Talking with China and having direct engaging discussions doesn’t mean you erase the economic ties,” one French diplomat told The Hill.

“Personal engagement is even more important with China, after three years of pandemic, and considering the nature of the regime,” the diplomat continued, a reference to Xi’s near total power over the state. 

How Europe, US differ on China

But critics say that Macron’s coterie of business executives undermines any effort to push Xi to get tough on Russia. 

“In a situation where we’re trying to talk strategy with the Chinese, trying to get them to commit not to deliver weapons to Russia, bringing along so many business people with all deals in their minds, and Euro signs in their pupils, is the wrong signal,” said Roland Freudenstein, vice president and head of GLOBSEC Brussels, a think tank based in Slovakia. “It means that you come with a carrot, but you don’t come with a stick, and any talk of the stick is not valid at that moment.” 

Other experts though said that Macron should not be made into a boogeyman from this visit to China, considering that Europe has business interests to maintain in China.

“Both the U.S. and Europe have this new sort of idea that China is a rival, a partner, and a competitor. For the U.S., the ordering is probably rival first, then competitor, then partner. For Europe, that used to be the other way around,” said Matthias Matthijs, European expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“The Europeans are slowly moving closer to the American line on China, but the US has also moved very aggressively in a different direction than, say, it was during the Obama administration, and the Europeans aren’t quite there yet because they have no reason to be,” added Matthijs, also a professor of international political economy at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies.

Biden and Xi have not spoken since they met in Bali, Indonesia, on the sidelines of the Group of 20 Summit in November 2022, but Biden said he would talk to Xi in the wake of the Chinese spy balloon traversing the United States in February. 

When asked about the phone call between Biden and Macron, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby on Wednesday declined to provide further details but said the president was “grateful” that Macron called him before his trip to Beijing.