Russia: 40 killed in attack on concert hall

The Islamic State claimed responsibility for an attack in which at least dozens of people were killed and wounded when individuals reportedly armed with automatic weapons opened fire at Crocus City Hall, a concert venue in suburban Moscow, Russia.

"According to preliminary data, as a result of the terrorist attack at the Crocus City Hall building 40 people were killed and over 100 were injured," Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) said in a statement reported by TASS.

Citing eyewitnesses, the Russian news agency reported that the group of unidentified men "armed with assault rifles went on a shooting spree in the lobby and then inside the concert hall just before a concert by the rock band Picnic."

The attack comes on the heels of Russian President Vladimir Putin's contested reelection and over two years into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has received weapons support from around the world, including the United States.

In a lengthy social media post, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said that Ukraine certainly has nothing to do with the shooting/explosions in the Crocus City Hall.

"There is not the slightest doubt that the events in the Moscow suburbs will contribute to a sharp increase in military propaganda, accelerated militarization, expanded mobilization, and, ultimately, the scaling up of the war," Podolyak added. "And also to justify manifest genocidal strikes against the civilian population of Ukraine."

According to The Guardian, John Kirby, the White House national security spokesperson, told reporters that there's no indication at this time that Ukraine, or Ukrainians were involved in the shooting... We're taking a look at it, but I would disabuse you at this early hour of any connection to Ukraine."

Asked whether the attack signals cracks in Putin's regime, Kirby said that there are people in Moscow and in Russia that object to the way Putin is governing the country, but I don't think we, at this early hour, can make a link between the shopping mall attack and political motivations. I think... we just need more time and we need to learn more information."

 

Will Putin be arrested if he attends BRICS meeting in South Africa?

BRICS foreign ministers on Thursday asserted their bloc's ambition to rival Western powers but their talks in South Africa were overshadowed by questions over whether Russia's president would be arrested if he attended a summit in August.

South Africa's foreign minister Naledi Pandor said her country was mulling options if Vladimir Putin, the subject of a war crimes arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC), came to the planned BRICS summit in Johannesburg.

As a member of the ICC, South Africa would theoretically be required to arrest Putin, and Pandor was bombarded with questions about that as she arrived for a first round of talks with representatives from Brazil, Russia, India and China.

"The answer is the president (Cyril Ramaphosa) will indicate what the final position of South Africa is. As matters stand an invitation has been issued to all (BRICS) heads of state," she said.

At a news conference later, the ministers side-stepped a barrage of questions about the Putin issue.

The ICC accused Putin in March of the war crime of forcibly deporting children from Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine. Moscow denies the allegations. South Africa had invited Putin in January.

Putin has not confirmed his plans, with the Kremlin only saying Russia would take part at the proper level.

The ministers sought to focus attention on their ambition to build up their influence in a multi-polar world.

India's Subrahmanyam Jaishankar spoke of the concentration of economic power which he said leaves too many nations at the mercy of too few, and of the need to reform global decision-making including by the United Nations Security Council.

"Old ways cannot address new situations. We are a symbol of change. We must act," he said.

Once viewed as a loose association of disparate emerging economies, BRICS has in recent years taken more concrete shape, driven initially by Beijing and, since the start of the Ukraine war in February 2022, with added impetus from Moscow.

The bloc launched a New Development Bank in 2015, though that has stopped funding projects in Russia to comply with sanctions imposed by Western countries following the invasion of Ukraine.

Pandor said a senior executive from the bank had briefed the ministers about the potential use of alternative currencies to the current internationally traded currencies.

She said the aim was to ensure that we do not become victim to sanctions that have secondary effects on countries that have no involvement in issues that have led to those unilateral sanctions.

The ministers also discussed plans to potentially admit new members to the club. Pandor said more work was needed to make that possible and she hoped a report on the matter would be ready by the August summit.

China's Vice Minister Ma Zhaoxu said his country was happy about the prospect of more countries joining BRICS as it would increase the influence of the bloc and give it more power to serve the interests of developing countries.

The BRICS bloc "was inclusive ... in sharp contrast to some countries' small circle, and so I believe the enlargement of BRICS will be beneficial to the BRICS countries," he said.

Iran's Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and his Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud were both present in Cape Town to participate in the BRICS meeting, which continues on Friday.

Their two countries, along with Venezuela, Argentina, Algeria and the United Arab Emirates are among those that have either formally applied to join BRICS or expressed interest, officials said.

 

Parts of China trip more than shocking, says German Foreign Minister

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Wednesday described parts of her recent trip to China as more than shocking and said Beijing was increasingly becoming a systemic rival more than a trade partner and competitor.

The blunt remarks followed Baerbock's visit to Beijing last week where she warned that any attempt by China to control Taiwan would be unacceptable.

Beijing claims democratically governed Taiwan as a Chinese province and has never ruled out the use of force to bring the island under its control.

Baerbock also said China wanted to follow its own rules at the expense of the international rules-based order. Beijing in turn asked Germany to support Taiwan's reunification and said China and Germany were not adversaries but partners.

Speaking to the German Bundestag (lower house of parliament) on Wednesday about her China trip, Baerbock said some of it was really more than shocking.

She did not elaborate on specifics, although her remark came after she said China was becoming more repressive internally as well as aggressive externally.

For Germany, she said, China is a partner, competitor and systemic rival, but her impression is now that the systemic rival aspect is increasing more and more.

China is Germany's largest trading partner, said Baerbock, but this did not mean Beijing was also Germany's most important trading partner.

The German government wants to work with China but does not want to repeat past mistakes, for example the notion of change through trade, she said, that the West can achieve political shifts in authoritarian regimes through commerce.

Baerbock also said China had a responsibility to work towards peace in the world, in particular using its influence over Russia in the war in Ukraine.

She welcomed Beijing's promise not to supply weapons to Russia, including dual use items, though added that Berlin would see how such a promise worked in practice.

In a departure from the policies of former chancellor Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz's government is developing a new China strategy to reduce dependence on Asia's economic superpower, a vital export market for German goods.

 

 

 

Biden hosts German Chancellor to solicit support in Ukraine war

US President Joe Biden on Friday hosted German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House, where the two leaders tried to project a united front in support for Ukraine as it enters the second year of a war against invading Russian forces.

Scholz last visited the White House in February 2022, when Russia was amassing troops along the Ukrainian border. Friday’s visit came after a year of war and as both leaders have sought to assure the Ukrainians and other allies that their respective governments will back Ukraine for as long as it takes to end the conflict.

“I want to thank you, Olaf, for your strong and steady leadership. I mean that sincerely. It’s made a world of difference,” Biden said during an Oval Office meeting. “You stepped up to provide critical military support. And I would argue, beyond the military support, the moral support you’ve given Ukrainians has been profound.”

Scholz added that it was important for Germany and the United States to aid Ukraine and “that we give the message that we will continue to do so as long as it takes.”

That message echoed what Biden has said repeatedly during the past year, including during a trip to Kyiv last month marking the anniversary of Russia’s invasion.

The two leaders did not respond to questions from reporters in the Oval Office, and they were not scheduled to hold a joint press conference that has typically accompanied foreign leader visits to the White House.

But continued support for Ukraine was likely to be at the top of the agenda for Biden and Scholz. The US and Germany, along with other Group of Seven allies, have for the past year attempted to coordinate on imposing sanctions against Russia to squeeze the Kremlin’s war effort, as well as military and economic assistance for Ukraine.

Biden and Scholz were initially not on the same page earlier this year over whether to send tanks to Ukraine, with Germany reluctant to Leopard tanks unless the US agreed to send Abrams tanks. Both countries eventually came to an agreement to provide the armored vehicles to Ukraine.

As the war enters its second year, maintaining support will be a major test for both leaders, and the US has warned that China is considering providing support to Russia in its war effort, though it has not yet done so.

Polls have shown softening support among Americans for providing additional aid to Ukraine, and US officials have deferred to Ukrainians to map out what they would accept for terms of ending the war. 

Half of respondents in a late February poll from Fox News said America should continue to back Ukraine through the end of the war, while another 46% said there should be a limited timeframe on US support.

 

Bangladesh: IMF Approves US$4.7 Billion Assistance

The International Monetary Fund’s US$4.7 billion loan program won’t be a miracle worker for the Bangladesh economy. The program would hold the economy back from falling off the cliff from the whiplash of the pandemic and the Ukraine war and turn it towards the right track.

“The authorities made the right decision to come to the Fund — and most importantly, to come to the Fund early,” said Rahul Anand, the IMF’s mission chief to Bangladesh.

Turning to the IMF when the country is already in crisis could make the adjustments particularly hard on people — a situation confronting Pakistan and Sri Lanka. But Bangladesh is not in crisis, Anand said.

“Just like countries around the world, Bangladesh is dealing with the impact of global shocks — first from the pandemic and then from the ongoing war in Ukraine,” he added.

In that vein, the program’s immediate task is to prop up the country’s shrinking foreign exchange reserves, which has already hit businesses and ordinary people hard.

While the IMF would make US$476 million immediately available, the lender’s impact would be beyond that: it would give the other multilateral agencies, such as the World Bank, to make more funds available for Bangladesh.

This along with the import curbs placed by the government will shore up the gross foreign reserves to US$30 billion by the end of the fiscal year, according to the IMF’s projections.

As per the lender’s balance of payments and investment position manual (BPM6), gross foreign reserves calculation does not include the various funds that the Bangladesh Bank has formed from the reserves as well as the loan guarantees provided for Biman, the currency swap with Sri Lanka, the loan to Payra Port Authority and the below-investment-grade securities. These account for about US$7.5 billion.

When these components are taken out, the IMF projection matches the government’s expected foreign currency reserve position at the end of fiscal 2022-23: US$37.7 billion.

Gross reserves would increase to US$34.2 billion in fiscal 2023-24 and to US$40 billion in the following year, as per IMF’s projections. It would hit US$46.4 billion once the program ends.

Other than restoring macroeconomic stability by way of the reserves, the program would also give impetus to some long-due structural reforms such as raising more tax revenues, scaling up social spending, modernizing the monetary policy framework, strengthening the financial sector and building climate resilience.

“While confronting challenges resulting from the global headwinds, the authorities need to accelerate their ambitious reform agenda to achieve a more resilient, inclusive and sustainable growth,” said Antoinette Monsio Sayeh, the deputy managing director of IMF, in a press release.

Thanks to the reforms ushered in by the program, Bangladesh’s tax revenue would increase from 7.8% of GDP this fiscal year to 8.3% next year and then 8.8%. At the end of the program, it would be 9.4% of GDP, as per the IMF’s projections.

The program would insist on cutting back on subsidies, which would free up more resources for social and development spending.

“Not all subsidies are helping the poor and vulnerable. In Bangladesh where gas and electricity are being subsidized, the rich drive more cars and use more air conditioning,” Anand said.

Rationalization of untargeted subsidies will free fiscal resources to strengthen social safety nets and increase development spending.

Substantial investment in human capital and infrastructure will be needed to achieve Bangladesh’s aspiration to reach upper-middle income status by 2031 and meet the Sustainable Development Goals.

By the end of the program, the size of the annual development program would increase from the existing 5.2% of GDP to 6.5%, as per the IMF’s projections.

Public investment would increase from 8.8% of GDP this fiscal year to 11.2% of GDP in fiscal 2025-26, when the program ends. Subsequently, Bangladesh’s real GDP growth would be back to 7% by fiscal 2024-25.

This fiscal year, the growth would be 5.5%, as the IMF’s projections, which is in line with other multilateral lenders’ forecasts.

Earlier last month, the WB pared back Bangladesh’s growth forecast for this fiscal year by 1.5% to 5.2%. In December last year, the government revised down the growth forecast from 7.2% to 6.5%.

The IMF will disclose the specifics of the loan program in the coming days.

The mandatory conditions would be a minimum level of net international reserves and domestic revenue collection and a ceiling on the government’s budget deficit, The Daily Star has learnt from people involved in the negotiations with the IMF staff mission to thrash out the terms for the loan.

Implementing the income tax law, setting up an asset management company to dispose of soured loans, bringing down the banking sector’s default loans to within 10% and raising the capital adequacy ratio to the BASEL 3 requirement of 12.5%, are among the reforms agreed upon.

Periodically adjusting the fuel price through a formula and increasing remittance receipts through formal channels are also on the task list.

A social spending floor and better targeted social safety net programs, market-based exchange rate interest rate, developing the capital and bond market, expanding and diversifying exports and modernizing the monetary policy framework and reporting on net foreign reserves are the other agreed reforms.

The interest rate on the loan would be about 2.2%. Of the US$4.7 billion, US$1.4 billion can be repaid over a 20-year horizon with a grace period of ten years. The remaining amount must be paid back within ten years; the grace period for a portion of the sum is 3.5 years and for another portion 5.5 years.