OPEC oil output increases in July

According to Reuters, OPEC oil output rose in July, as a rebound in Saudi Arabian supply and small increases elsewhere offsetting the impact of ongoing voluntary supply cuts by other members and the wider OPEC Plus alliance.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped 26.70 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, up 100,000 bpd from June.

The increase comes despite OPEC Plus keeping in place most of its output cuts until the end of 2025 to bolster the market in the face of tepid demand growth, high interest rates and rising US production.

A meeting of top OPEC Plus ministers on Thursday kept oil output policy unchanged including a plan to start unwinding one layer of output cuts from October, and repeating that the hike could be paused or reversed if needed.

Saudi Arabia provided the largest supply boost last month of 70,000 bpd, as exports rebounded from June when they were lower than expected. Production reached 9 million bpd in July, close to the kingdom's target.

Nigeria had the biggest decline of 30,000 bpd, with exports lower month on month.

Small increases came from Libya and Iran, two of the members not required to cut output, and from Iraq. Iranian output reached 3.22 million bpd, the highest since 2018.

Iran has been boosting exports in the last few years despite US sanctions remaining in place. Iraq's output edged higher with exports increasing month on month, flows data showed and a tanker-tracking source said.

OPEC pumped about 240,000 bpd more than the implied target for the nine members covered by supply cut agreements, with Iraq still accounting for the bulk of the excess, the survey found.

The Reuters aims to track supply to the market and is based on shipping data provided by external sources, LSEG flows data, information from companies that track flows - such as Petro-Logistics and Kpler - and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants.

Iranian oil output and price improve

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its latest monthly report has said that Iran’s oil production volume increased by 28,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 3.188 million BPD in March 2024 and heavy oil price also increased by US$3.0 during this period.

The OPEC total crude oil production volume reached 26.604 million bpd in March 2024, showing a 3,000 bpd increase as compared to a month before.

According to this report, the price of each barrel of Iran’s heavy crude oil in March 2024 reached US$83.48 BPD.

The average oil price of OPEC in March 2024 reached US$84.22, showing an increase of US$2.99 BPD.

Back in January, a report released by the US Department of Energy stated that Iran has been the top OPEC member in terms of production increase in 2023, with an increase of 330,000 bpd.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) affiliated with the Department of Energy mentioned in its latest report that the total oil production of Iran was estimated at 2.87 million bpd at the end of 2023. Iran’s oil production was 2.54 million bpd in 2022.

The figures show that total OPEC oil production was 26.89 million bpd in 2023 which shows 630,000 barrels fall year on year. OPEC produced 27.52 million bpd in 2022.

This report has put Iran's oil production in the last month of last year at 3.17 million bpd. Iran was the third-largest OPEC producer after Saudi Arabia and Iraq in December 2023.

The 330,000-bpd increase in Iran’s 2023 oil production indicates that sanctions have been ineffective on Iran's oil industry.

Earlier in June 2023, Bloomberg reported that the production and export of Iranian oil in 2023 reached record highs since the country came under US sanctions more than five years ago.

The report published in late June 2023 stated that Iran was shipping the highest amount of crude in almost five years despite US sanctions.

Bloomberg cited energy analysts as saying that Iran’s oil exports have surged to the highest level since the US unilaterally re-imposed sanctions on the country in 2018.

A Reuters report, also said in June last year Iranian crude shipments continued to rise in 2023 with higher shipments to China, Syria, and Venezuela. The report quoted consultants, shipping data, and a source familiar with the matter.

A large chunk of Iran’s crude oil goes to China which is the world’s major importer of energy. Several European customers including Germany, Spain, and Bulgaria also imported oil from Iran.

Iran has not released official figures about its oil exports over the past years amid efforts to evade Washington’s sanctions.

 

Iranian oil output exceeds 3 million bpd

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in a report put Iran’s oil output at 3.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for February 2024.

According to the report OPEC’s total output during the month under review was up 170,000 bpd to 26.47 million bpd.

OPEC’s latest monthly report, however, has put Iran’s crude oil production at 3.148 in February, noting that the Islamic Republic maintained its place as OPEC’s third-biggest oil producer in the month.

According to the mentioned report, the price of Iran’s heavy crude increased by 20 cents in February to reach US$80.34 per barrel.

The director of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) Explorations Department has said the country’s oil explorations registered a 300 percent growth in two years of the administration of President Ebrahim Raisi, who assumed office in August 2021.

Mehdi Fakour said the oil explorations have shown a considerable increase in various sectors as compared to the past five years, Mehr News Agency reported.

He added that the oil explorations made in the first two years of the current administration have registered a 300 percent hike.

The feasibility studies of some explorations have started in the country, he said, adding that negotiations have been made with a number of industrial production companies.

Currently, the oil exploration activities in the country are at a satisfactory level, Fakour added.

Earlier, the Head of the National Iranian Oil Company Mohsen Khojasteh Mehr said that the company has a 100-year vision for exploration, emphasizing that the company is determined to carry out maximum exploration operations to discover and maintain the country’s reserves.

Back in February, the International Monetary Fund in a report on Iran’s microeconomic indicators said the increase in Iran’s oil production in 2023 exceeded expectations.

The fund attributed the increase in its estimate of Iran's economic growth in the mentioned year to the higher-than-expected increase in the country’s oil production.

According to the new estimates of this international entity, Iran's economic growth in 2023 reached 5.4 percent, registering a significant increase compared to the previous year.

The International Monetary Fund had previously estimated that Iran's economic growth would reach only 3.0 percent in 2023.

Iran's crude oil exports grew by roughly 50 percent in 2023 to a five-year high of about 1.29 million bpd, with the vast majority going to China, according to Nikkei Asia.

The report, citing the International Energy Agency (IEA), put Iran’s oil production at 2.99 million bpd last year, 440,000 barrels more than in 2022.

As reported, IEA predicts a further rise of 160,000 barrels of Iran’s oil exports in 2024.

This increase is expected to contribute to a less tight market, alongside increases by the US and Brazil. The IEA sees global supply rising by 1.5 million bpd to an all-time high this year.

 

Iranian oil exports hit five year high

Iranian crude exports and oil output have hit new highs in 2023 despite US sanctions, according to consultants, shipping data and a source familiar with the matter, adding to global supply when other producers are limiting output.

Tehran's oil exports have been limited since former US President Donald Trump in 2018 exited a 2015 nuclear accord and reimposed sanctions aimed at curbing oil exports and the associated revenue to Iran's government.

Exports have risen during the term of his successor President Joe Biden. Iranian and Western officials have said the US is holding talks with Iran to sketch out steps that could limit the nuclear program.

Iranian crude exports exceeded 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in May 2023, the highest monthly rate since 2018, according to Kpler, a provider of flows data. These were around 2.5 million bpd in 2018, before the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal.

Iran said in May it has boosted its crude output to above 3 million bpd. That's about 3% of global supply and would be the highest since 2018, according to figures from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

A source familiar with the matter told Reuters earlier this month output was still at this level.

The International Energy Agency this week put Iran's May production at 2.87 million bpd, close to Iran's official figure.

The rise from Iran comes as OPEC Plus, which includes OPEC, Russia and other allies, is cutting output to support the oil market, where expectations that economic weakness will dent demand have pressured prices.

Other analysts say Iran's production and exports have risen. SVB International, a consultant, estimates crude production hit 3.04 million bpd in May, up from 2.66 million bpd in January. Exports of crude and condensate were 1.93 million bpd in May.

"Sanctions are in place but perhaps not fully implemented or monitored," said Sara Vakhshouri of SVB, who has previously said during Biden's term there hasn't been any serious crackdown or action against Iran's oil exports.

"Also all of these supply volumes are in the dark market, where there is no transparency and so these are not reflected in formal global supply and export data."

On the issue of whether the US is strictly enforcing the sanctions, the US State Department and Treasury did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

China is Iran's biggest customer while volumes also head to Syria and Venezuela, according to analysts and shipping data.

OPEC+ Plus agreed on June 4 a wide-ranging deal to limit oil supply into 2024. Iran is not required to make cuts as, together with Venezuela and Libya, it has an exemption. Nigeria is not exempt but has faced internal challenges in raising output.

Analysts at JP Morgan in a report this week said OPEC+  Plus needed to cut more. They lowered their Brent oil-price forecast for 2023 to US$81 a barrel from US$90, saying rising supply was offsetting demand growth.

"Within the broader OPEC Plus alliance, supply has been also rising outside the core members," the analysts at JP Morgan said, and revised up their production expectations for Venezuela, Nigeria and Iran by almost 600,000 bpd from November last year.

"Invariably, to make room for this supply growth, OPEC Plus needs to cut more, were the alliance to adhere to the market management strategy."