Russian crude drives dark fleet demand

Dark fleet tankers and risky Suez transits are having little impact on India’s soaring imports of Russian crude, now running at 20 times the volume shipped prior to the invasion of Ukraine.

Analysis by New York broker, Poten & Partners, has revealed that Indian imports of heavily sanctioned Russian crude have increased to almost 1.8 million barrels a day (bpd), up from just 88,000 bpd prior to the invasion in February 2022.

At that time, Russia ranked ninth on India’s list of oil suppliers, with Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE supplying about 60% of the country’s crude. The three Middle East nations were followed by the US and Nigeria.

Prior to the invasion, Russian crude had not been attractive to Indian refiners because of logistical constraints. None of Russia’s main export ports in the Baltic, the Black Sea or the Far East can load VLCCs, Poten pointed out, so Russian cargoes were shipped aboard Aframax and Suezmax tankers.  

However, the picture changed dramatically following the 2022 invasion when western nations imposed sanctions on Russian crude. This was largely driven by price. Until the invasion, ‘Dated Brent’ and Urals crude had traded broadly in parity but, following sanctions, ‘official’ Urals prices were an average of US$10-20 lower. Since deals involving Russian crude are shrouded in secrecy, Poten’s analysis has revealed that actual discounts could be much higher, possibly as much as US$40 a barrel.  

Much of the new Soviet crude was bought based on spot prices and arranged by Russian oil traders, many of them in Dubai, who charge ‘significant commissions’ for their services. But over recent months, the discount of Urals to Brent crude has narrowed, making the crude less attractive.

Meanwhile, the tanker trade from Russia to India has become more challenging, Poten said. Sanctions now restrict the use of Western shipping services including owners, brokers, and insurers when the Soviet crude price exceeds the ‘price cap’ of US$60 per barrel. This has forced Indian importers to rely on tankers in the so-called dark fleet – ships that may be old, poorly maintained, with dodgy crews and questionable insurance cover.

The dangers of the dark fleet have been highlighted by the recent collision between the Sao Tome and Principe VLCC Ceres I and the Singapore-registered product tanker Hafnia Nile, where the VLCC later attempted to flee the scene of the accident.

The US and EU are trying to ‘tighten the noose’ around these sanctions-busting shipowners. The availability of suitable ships could soon become a problem, possibly even limiting Russia’s export possibilities. At the same time, conflict in the Middle East is making this worse.

The dark fleet tankers on the route from Russia to India often take the shortcut through Suez, Poten said, even though the Houthis are increasing their strikes against ships in the Red Sea and Bab Al-Mandeb Straits. But the voyage round the Cape takes far longer and is much more expensive.

Despite these setbacks, Poten reports that Indian refiners are now in dialogue with Soviet suppliers on term deals, rather than spot contracts. This could reduce transaction costs by cutting out the middlemen.

“It would also suggest that the boost in ton-mile demand that has helped trigger the sustained increase in tanker rates may be here to stay,” Poten concluded.  

Courtesy: Seatrade Maritime News

 

Suez Canal revenue drops by almost half

The revenue of Egypt's Suez Canal has declined by almost half this year following attacks on shipping in the Red Sea by the Houthi which have seen many vessels divert via the Cape of Good Hope.

According to Egypt’s Al-Mal News, data released this week for last month shows that revenues of the Suez Canal dropped by 64.3% to approximately US$337.8 million, as compared to US$648 million recorded in May 2023.

The number of vessels transiting the canal in May also dropped to 1,111, which is lower than 2,396 ships that crossed during a similar period last year.

As a result of reduced ship traffic, the cargo volume passing through the Suez Canal dropped by 68.5% last month to about 44.9 million tons. In May 2023, the total cargo tonnage was 142.9 million tons.

The Suez Canal Authority (SCA) Chief Osama Rabie said in media statements last week that the canal's income decreased to US$428 million in January compared to US$804 million in the same period in the previous year.

According to the head of the SCA, Osama Rabie, the traffic of ships in the waterway witnessed a 30% decline compared to the same period of 2023.

During the fiscal year 2022/2023, the returns from the Suez Canal hit a record-breaking $9.4 billion.

The SCA has extended fee discounts for a range of vessels on selected long-distance trades. Initially, SCA had introduced the fee reductions back in January, with some discounts as high as 75% for product tankers and crude carriers on voyages between Americas and Asia.

The new extension of discount rates will be valid until end of the year, covering 12 categories of ships including bulk carriers, container ships and LNG carriers.

Greek vessel hit by missile in Red Sea

A Malta-flagged, Greek-owned vessel has been hit with a missile in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen, maritime security firm Ambrey reports It is thought to be the third incident involving the bulk carrier, believed to be named Zografia, in 24 hours.

Tuesday's incident comes as the US military announced it had seized Iranian-supplied weapons bound for the Houthis during an operation last week. Meanwhile, the US has hit more targets in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.

An official told CBS, the BBC's American partner, that the US conducted further strikes on Houthi positions overnight.

The US and UK launched a wave of airstrikes against dozens of Houthi targets on Januart 11 following attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.

The Houthis have vowed to retaliate and on Sunday the US said it had shot down a missile fired towards one of its warships from a Houthi area of Yemen.

Several vessels have been targeted by the movement's fighters since November in protest at Israel's war with Hamas.

The Houthis say they are targeting vessels which are Israeli-owned, flagged or operated, or are heading to Israeli ports.

The Red Sea connects the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal but several shipping lines have announced they are now diverting round the Cape of Good Hope to reach Europe instead.

The US said on Tuesday that analysis from the weapons it seized from a ship near the Yemen coast suggested the Houthis had been using the same kind of weapons in their Red Sea attacks.

"This is the first seizure of lethal, Iranian-supplied advanced conventional weapons (ACW) to the Houthis since the beginning of Houthi attacks against merchant ships in November 2023," US Central Command said in a statement.

Maersk schedules vessels through Suez Canal

According to Reuters, Denmark's Maersk has scheduled several dozen container vessels to travel via the Suez Canal and the Red Sea in the coming days and weeks, it said on Wednesday, in a further sign that global shipping firms are returning to the route.

The world's top shipping companies, including container giants Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, announced to stop using Red Sea routes after Yemen's Houthi militant group began targeting vessels earlier this month.

Maersk's share price fell 5% by 1330 GMT on Wednesday, partly reversing last week's gains, as a return to the shorter routes through the Suez Canal from voyages around Africa might prompt a freight rates correction.

Other shipping stocks also fell, including Hapag-Lloyd which dropped 6%, oil tanker group Frontline which was down 5.3% and car shipping service Hoegh Autoliners which was 3% lower.

Maersk said on December 24 it was preparing a return to the Red Sea for both eastbound and westbound journeys, citing the deployment of a US-led military operation to protect vessels against Houthi attacks, but provided few details.

The schedule remains subject to change based on specific contingency plans that may be formed over the coming days, the company said on Wednesday.

France's CMA CGM on Tuesday said it was increasing the number of vessels travelling through the Suez Canal.

Among the vessels listed in a Maersk advisory to clients on Wednesday was the Maren Maersk, which departed Tangiers on December 24, 2023 and would continue via Suez Canal with an estimated time of arrival in Singapore on January 14, 2024.

But many of its vessels are still scheduled to take the journey around Africa, the advisory showed.

Maersk has since December 19 rerouted ships around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope to avoid attacks, charging customers extra fees and adding weeks to the time it takes to transport goods from Asia to Europe and to the east coast of North America.

It announced on December 22 that it would add charges of US$700 for a standard 20-foot container travelling from China to Northern Europe, consisting of a US$200 transit disruption surcharge and a US$500 peak season surcharge.

The transit disruption charge was imposed last week with immediate effect while the peak season addition is valid from January 01, 2024. It was not immediately clear how the decision to restart some Red Sea shipments would affect the surcharges.

The company declined to comment further when asked about its vessel schedules.

"At the moment, we cannot say anything more than what has been shared," a Maersk spokesperson said in a statement.

German rival Hapag-Lloyd still considers the situation too dangerous to pass through the Suez Canal, a spokesperson for the company said on Wednesday, adding that it would continue to reroute its vessels via the Cape of Good Hope.

 

 

Panama Canal drought to delay grain ships

According to Reuters, bulk grain shippers hauling crops from the United States Gulf Coast export hub to Asia are sailing longer routes and paying higher freight costs to avoid vessel congestion and record-high transit fees in the drought-hit Panama Canal.

The shipping snarl through one of the world's main maritime trade routes comes at the peak season for US crop exports, and the higher costs are threatening to dent demand for US corn and soy suppliers that have already ceded market share to Brazil in recent years.

Ships moving crops have faced wait times of up to three weeks to pass through the canal as container vessels and others that sail on more regular schedules are scooping up the few transit slots available.

The restrictions could continue to impede grain shipments well into 2024 when the region's wet season may begin to recharge reservoirs and normalize shipping in April or May, analysts said.

"It's causing quite a disruption both in expense and delay," said Jay O'Neil, proprietor of HJ O'Neil Commodity Consulting, adding that the disruption is unlike any he's seen in his 50 years of monitoring global shipping.

The Panama Canal Authority restricted vessel transits this autumn as a severe drought limited supplies of water needed to operate its lock system. The Authority did not respond to request for comment on grain shipment delays.

Only 22 daily transits are currently allowed, down from around 35 in normal conditions. By February, transits will shrink further to 18 a day.

Grain ships are often at the back of the line as they usually seek transit slots only a few days before arriving, while others like cruise and container ships book months in advance.

The Authority also offers the rare available slots to its top customers first, none of which are bulk grain haulers, O'Neil said.

Any scheduled slots that come available are auctioned off, but demand is exceptionally high. Some slots have gone for US$ one million or more, untenable costs for the traditionally thin-margin grain trading business.

"The grain trades and the bulk carrier segment are going to be the last customers to go through the Panama Canal. I would not rely on the Panama Canal any time soon," said Mark Thompson, senior trader at Olam Agri.

Wait times for bulk grain vessels ballooned from around five to seven days in October to around 20 days by late November, O'Neil said, prompting more grain carriers to reroute.

Options include sailing south around South America or Africa, or transiting the Suez Canal. But those longer routes can add up to two weeks to shipping times, elevating costs for fuel, crews and freight leases.

While grain prices have fallen from 2020 peaks, higher freight costs will be passed on to grain and oilseed importers who buy for human food and livestock feed.

"Commercial companies have been finding ways to navigate around the problem. But undoubtedly it costs the end-user more money," said Dan Basse, president of Chicago-based consultancy AgResource Co.

In the second half of October, only five US Gulf grain vessels bound for East Asia transited the Panama Canal, while 33 sailed east to use the Suez Canal instead, according to a US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report. In the same period last year, 34 vessels used the Panama Canal while only seven used the Suez.

Some US exporters have also been rerouting crop shipments to Asia to load from Pacific Northwest ports instead. But that, too, comes at a higher cost as those facilities source grain mostly via rail as opposed to the cheaper barge-delivered loads supplying Gulf Coast exporters.

Only 56.8% of all US corn exports in October were shipped from Gulf Coast ports this year, down from 64.9% in October 2022 and 72.1% in October 2021, according to USDA weekly export inspections data.

 

 

 

Iraq launches road and rail project to link Asia and Europe

Iraq has launched a US$17 billion project on Saturday to link a major commodities port on its southern coast by rail and roads to the border with Turkey, in a move designed to transform the country's economy after decades of war and crisis.

The Development Road aims to tie the Grand Faw Port in Iraq's oil-rich south to Turkey, turning the country into a transit hub by shortening travel time between Asia and Europe in a bid to rival the Suez Canal.

"The Development Road is not just a road to move goods or passengers. This road opens the door to development of vast areas of Iraq," Farhan al-Fartousi, director general of the General Company for Ports of Iraq, told Reuters.

Iraq's government envisions high-speed trains moving goods and passengers at up to 300 kilometres (186.41 miles) per hour, links to local industry hubs and an energy component that could include oil and gas pipelines.

It would mark a significant departure from the country's existing aged transport network.

Iraq's train service currently operates a handful of lines, including slow oil freight and a single overnight passenger train that trundles from Baghdad to Basra, taking 10 to 12 hours to cover 500 kilometres.

The Grand Faw Port, which was devised over a decade ago, is halfway to completion, Fartousi said.

Passenger transport between Iraq and Europe harkens back to grand plans at the turn of the 20th century to create a Baghdad to Berlin express.

"We will make this line active again and tie it to other countries," Fartousi said, noting plans to ferry tourists and pilgrims to Shiite holy sites in Iraq and Mecca in Saudi Arabia for the Haj pilgrimage.

The project was announced on Saturday at a conference aimed at courting Arab interest, including from Arab Gulf states, Syria and Jordan. A senior government aide said regional investment was on the table.

Promises of development are long-standing in Iraq but infrastructure remains decrepit even as the government of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani makes a push to rebuild roads and bridges.

But officials say the Development Road is based on something new: a period of relative stability since late last year that they hope can be maintained.

If work starts early next year, the project would be completed in 2029, Fartousi said.

"Even if Iraq was absent for a year or two or a decade or two, it must return one day or another. Hopefully these days are the beginning of the return of Iraq," he said.

Suez Canal to hike transit tolls

Tolls for vessels using the Suez Canal are set to rise by 15% next year (2023) with the exception of dry cargo and cruise ships which will increase by 10%.

The transit toll increases from January 2023 were announced at the weekend by Adm. Ossama Rabiee, Chairman and Managing Director of the Suez Canal Authority (SCA).

According to the SCA the increases are based on a number of pillars, the most important of which is average freight rates for various times of vessels.

“In this regard, there were considerable and consecutive increases within the past period; especially in container ships' freight rates, compared to those recorded before the Covid-19 pandemic which will be reflected in the high operational profits that will be achieved by navigational lines throughout 2023 in light of the continued impact of the disturbances in global supply chains and the congestion in ports world-wide, as well as the fact that shipping lines have secured long-term shipping contracts at very high rates,” said Adm Rabiee.

The much-improved performance of the tanker market was also noted by the SCA with daily crude tanker charter rates up 88% compared to average rates in 2021, average daily rates for LNG carriers increasing by 11% compared to the previous year.

Tolls for all vessel types including tankers and container ships will increase by 15%. The only exceptions are dry bulk ships, where charter rates are currently extremely low and cruise ships, a sector still recovering from an almost total shutdown during the pandemic.

It comes at a time when ship operators already face rising fuel costs. However, the increased savings made on higher fuel costs by using the shorter route through the Suez Canal was used in part to justify the toll increases.

The Suez Canal offers a significantly shorter route between Asia and Europe with the alternative involving sailing round the Cape of Good Hope.

When the Suez Canal was blocked by the grounded containership Ever Given in March 2021 analysts Sea Intelligence estimated on the basis of vessels sailing at 17 knots transiting via the Cape of Good Hope would add seven days to a Singapore to Rotterdam voyage, 10 days to West Mediterranean, a little over two weeks to East Mediterranean and between 2.5 – 4.5 days to the US East Coast.

Adm Rabiee also noted that the increases are inevitable given current global inflation of over 8% and increasing operational and navigational costs for the Suez Canal.

“It was emphasized as well that the SCA adopts a number of mechanisms with the sole aim of having its pricing policies cope with the changes in the maritime transport market and to ensure that the Canal remains the most efficient and least costly route compared to alternative routes,” the Authority said.

These take the form of rebates of up to 75% for specific sectors of shipping for defined periods if market conditions result in the canal becoming less competitive.

 

Suez Canal revenues to rise by 27% for financial year ending June 30, 2022

According to Finance Minister Mohamed Maait of Egypt, Suez Canal revenues are expected to rise to US$7 billion for the financial year 2021-22 ending on June 30, 2022, up 27% from US$5.5 billion for the last year.

Calendar year 2021 saw canal revenues hit a record US$6.3 billion, up 13% from US$5.6 billion seen in 2020.

The canal is the fastest route between Europe and Asia, and despite a 10% increase in toll rates implemented in March 2022, still saves shipping lines potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars in time and fuel, compared to sailings around the Cape of Good Hope.

Asian ship owners have been among the most vocal to complain about the toll hike, in addition to tariff increases introduced at the beginning of February this year.

Seatrade Maritime News calculates a 9.4% rise in fees for a southbound transit by a standard dry bulk vessel, as well as a similar increase in rebate, as of today, as compared to rates in November 2020.

Egypt mobilized public support for a widely subscribed national public debt program to finance a US$8.5 billion canal expansion, finished in 2015. Completion of further works is expected next year.

With container shipping lines reporting profits of around US$190 billion last year, US$60 billion in the first quarter of 2022, Egypt can be expected to maintain the pressure on toll rates for some time to come.

Despite the fact that tourism flows to Egypt declined by 35% due to the Russian invitation of Ukraine, Maait expects tourism revenues to hover around US$12 billion by the end of the financial year.

The canal, as well as tourism receipts are important to Egypt’s GDP, which the International Monetary Fund expects to reach US$435.6 billion in nominal terms in 2022.

The Asian Shipowners’ Association (ASA) member hit out at recent proposed toll changes at both the Panama Canal and Suez Canal.

At a meeting on April 18, 2022, ASA delegates noted the significance of the Suez and Panama canals as critical global infrastructure and called for the canals to avoid “sudden and significant” changes in tolls and charges.

“Delegates expressed their confusion against new surcharges introduced on March 01, 2022 with only 48 hours prior notice, then to be revised on May 01, 2022 by the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), which resulted in roughly a 7% to 20% toll increase for many types of vessels, in addition to a 6% tariff hike for most types of vessels, implemented on February 01, 2022,” said ASA.

Uncertainty around how surcharges operate could undermine the stability of the Canal, said the committee, calling for the industry to express its concerns to SCA.

ASA delegates some positives in the Panama Canal’s new toll system proposed earlier in April 2022 by the Panama Canal Authority (ACP). Delegates said the ACP had given sufficient notice and a formal consultation period, but were concerned that significant toll hikes could affect the long-term viability of the canal, “as the mark-up for some types of vessels may exceed 100% in 2025, compared with the current toll.”

The ASA meeting also discussed the review of anti-trust exemptions for carriers on the US, a policy delegates said was “indispensable for the healthy development of the liner shipping industry and the maintenance of a reliable service to the entire trading community.” ASA will continue its efforts to maintain anti-trust exemptions for liner shipping agreements.

 

Asian Shipowners’ Associations oppose hike in toll changes by Panama and Suez Canals

According to Seatrade Maritime News, Asian Shipowners’ Associations (ASA) are critical of recent proposed toll changes at both Panama Canal and Suez Canal Authorities. At a recent meeting, ASA delegates expressed concern and disappointment over the proposed hike in canal toll changes.

They reiterated the significance of Suez and Panama canals as critical global infrastructure and called for the canal authorities to avoid sudden and significant changes in tolls and charges.

“Delegates expressed their confusion against new surcharges introduced on March 01, 2022 with only 48 hours prior notice, then to be revised on May 01, 2022 by Suez Canal Authority (SCA), which resulted in roughly a 7 to 20 percent increase in toll for different types of vessels, in addition to a 6 percent tariff hike for most types of vessels, implemented on February 01, 2022,” said ASA.

Uncertainty around how surcharges operate could undermine the stability of the Canal, said the committee, calling for the industry to express its concerns to SCA.

ASA delegates appreciated some positives in the Panama Canal’s new toll system proposed earlier in April 2022 by the Panama Canal Authority (ACP). Delegates said the ACP had given sufficient notice and a formal consultation period, but were concerned that significant toll hikes could affect the long-term viability of the canal, “as the mark-up for some types of vessels may exceed 100% in 2025, as compared to the current toll.”

The ASA meeting also discussed the review of anti-trust exemptions for carriers on the US, a policy delegates said was “indispensable for the healthy development of the liner shipping industry and the maintenance of a reliable service to the entire trading community.” ASA will continue its efforts to maintain anti-trust exemptions for liner shipping agreements.

 

Ever Given to leave Suez Canal on 7th July

A giant container ship that blocked Egypt’s Suez Canal for nearly a week in March this year will be released on 7^th July following an agreement between authorities and the vessel’s owners, said Suez Canal Authority (SCA) on Sunday.

A ceremony for the signing of the settlement ending the dispute over the 400-meter-long Ever Given will be held on Wednesday, and the ship will be allowed to depart.

Earlier, Stann of London, the attorneys for the ship’s owner and insurers, said that a formal solution had been agreed upon and that preparations for its departure were being made.

Neither the SCA nor the attorneys provided details of the settlement. But the agreement marks an end to a dispute that arose after the Ever Given was freed after getting stuck in the vital waterway in March. The incident roiled global shipping markets.

The SCA had initially sought over US$900 million in damages and compensation that included recovering expenses related to freeing the ship, lost revenue and other costs and claims. The figure was later lowered to US$550 million.

Japan’s Shoei Kisen Kaisha the owner, and the ship’s insurers initially offered US$150 million.

The SCA brought the matter to an Egyptian court, which ordered the seizure of the ship pending a resolution of the dispute. Authorities had said that they were eager to reach an out-of-court agreement and that the ship would be allowed to leave once such a deal was reached.

The ship is being held in the Great Bitter Lake -- about halfway along the canal.

Ship stuck in Suez Canal still held by Egyptian authorities to recover US$ one billion

The world cheered when Evergreen cargo vessel was freed from the sides of the Suez Canal on March 29, 2021, but it is still held as ‘hostage’ to recover a king's ransom. The ship is still inside the Suez Canal, in a wider area called the Great Bitter Lake.

Egyptian authorities say they will let the mega ship go only after the ship's owners pay US$ one billion to compensate for the week that the canal was shut down. 

It seems that there are other reasons for detaining the ship. First there was little concern when ship grounded. Then work to afloat the ship moved at snail’s speed. And now the ship is being held as hostage to recover the booty.

The investigation can be completed in a few hours simply by listing to the captain of the ship, its key crew members and Egyptian pilots.

On the face value the Suez Canal authority (SCA) seems at fault and should be held liable to pay all others including the ship owners. It was their responsibility to use efficient pilot boats to escort this mega ship. If the weather was bad and visibility was poor they should have not pushed the ship into the Canal. And if they were confident of their skills, they should have also kept the control with them; they just can’t put the blame on the ship crew.

The SCA can still fight the case in a competent court of law, but holding the ship indefinitely tantamount to ‘Marine Terrorism’.

Osama Rabie, Chairman, SCA said on Egyptian state television that the country will hold onto the ship while it investigates what happened and until the ship's owner pay US$ one billion.

The losses for the period ending March 29, that the ship was stuck and blocked traffic flow through the canal comes to less than US$100 million in lost transit fees and there are also the costs to free the ship and other expenses to reimburse.

"The vessel will remain here until investigations are complete and compensation is paid," he said, according to The Wall Street Journal. 

"The minute they agree to pay the compensation, the vessel will be allowed to move."

It's not just Egyptian authorities who are asking for money. The Wall Street Journal said insurance claims for the boat's week in the spotlight could include losses for perishable goods as well as supply-chain disruptions.

Interestingly, Japanese company, Shoei Kisen Kaisha that owns the ship told the Journal it is in discussions with Egyptian authorities and cooperating in the investigation but has not officially, heard about the billion-dollar ransom.

The Company has started liability-limiting court proceedings in London. A representative of the International Transport Workers Federation, also based in London, told the Wall Street Journal that the crew appears to be well treated while they remain on board the ship.

Alternative to Suez Canal: Another canal through Israel

The United States considered a proposal to use 520 nuclear bombs to carve out an alternative to the Suez Canal though Israel in the 1960s, according to a declassified memorandum. The plan never came to fruition, but having an alternative waterway to the Suez Canal could have been looked into once again, after a cargo ship stuck in the narrow path, blocking one of the world's most vital shipping routes.

According to the 1963 memorandum, which was declassified in 1996, the plan would have relied on 520 nuclear bombs to carve out the waterway. The memo called for the "use of nuclear explosives for excavation of Dead Sea canal across the Negev desert."

The memorandum was from the US Department of Energy-backed Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. It suggested that an "interesting application of nuclear excavation would be a sea-level canal 160 miles long across Israel."

Conventional methods of excavation would be "prohibitively expensive," the memo said. "It appears that nuclear explosives could be profitably applied to this situation."

The memo added that "such a canal would be a strategically valuable alternative to the present Suez Canal and would probably contribute greatly to economic development."

As part of the pricing model, the memorandum estimated that four 2-megaton devices would be needed for every mile, which Wellerstein calculated as meaning "520 nukes" or 1.04 gigatons of explosives.

One possible route the memorandum proposed stretched across the Negev desert in Israel, connecting the Mediterranean to the Gulf of Aqaba, opening access to the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. 

The laboratory noted that there were 130 miles of "virtually unpopulated desert wasteland, and are thus amenable to nuclear excavation methods." 

The "crude preliminary investigation" suggested that using bombs to create a canal through Israel "appears to be within the range of technological feasibility," the memo said.

But the memo conceived that one problem, which the authors had not taken into consideration, might be "political feasibility, as it is likely that the Arab countries surrounding Israel would strongly object to the construction of such a canal."

The memo came as the US Atomic Energy Commission was investigating using "peaceful nuclear explosions" to dig out useful infrastructure, Forbes reported in 2018. There were also plans to use this method to dig out a canal in Central America, Forbes reported.

But the PNE project remained experimental, after the US found that 27 experiments with PNEs heavily irradiated the landscape. The Atomic Energy Commission was also abolished in 1974. 

The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory still exists. According to its website, it is dedicated to "ensuring the safety, security and reliability of the nation's nuclear deterrent."

The 1963 memorandum had also come less than a decade after the Suez crisis, a conflict for the control of the strategic waterway which was a defining event in the Cold War.

Ship stranded in Suez Canal re-floats

The stranded container ship blocking the Suez Canal for almost a week was re-floated on Monday and is currently being secured, Inchcape Shipping Services said, raising expectations the vital waterway will soon be reopened.

The ship was successfully re-floated at 4.30 am local time and was being secured at the moment, Inchcape, a global provider of marine services said on Twitter.

Ship-tracking service VesselFinder has changed the ship’s status to under way on its website.

The 400-metre (430-yard) long Ever Given was jammed diagonally across a southern section of the canal in high winds early on Tuesday, halting shipping traffic on the shortest shipping route between Europe and Asia.

At least 369 vessels were waiting to transit the canal, including dozens of container ships, bulk carriers, oil tankers and liquefied natural gas (LNG) or liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) vessels, SCA Chairman Osama Rabie told Egypt’s Extra News on Sunday.

Egypt’s Leth Agencies tweeted the ship had been partially refloated, pending official confirmation from the Suez Canal Authority.

The Suez Canal Authority had earlier said in a statement that tugging operations to free the ship had resumed. The Suez Canal salvage teams intensified excavation and dredging on Sunday and were hoping a high tide would help them dislodge it.

No one seems serious in floating ship stuck in Suez Canal

Having lived and worked for nearly seventy years in a third world country, I often tend to buy conspiracy theories. I have been following Evergreen story since Tuesday, now I am beginning to arrive at two conclusions: 1) grounding of the ship was not an accident and 2) all the efforts are being made to prolong blockade of Suez Canal. You may laugh at my insanity, but please give me a patient reading.

To begin with, I am still unable to swallow the bitter pill that the ship of this size and weight has grounded because of bad weather and dust storm.  This could have never happened unless the ship was moving without escorting tug boats.

The time already taken shows that there is no urgency, some giant oil companies and tycoons of the shipping industry are adamant at prolonging the blockade. It may also be doubted that some ruthless elements are also bent upon punishing Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China and even Japan.

“Time is the deciding factor here. The ship itself is undamaged, but there is massive consequential damage from the blockade,” said Peter Berdowski, chief executive of Boskalis.

As stated earlier, there is deliberate effort not to rescue the ship. The first and most effort should have been to lessen the load of the ship, removing the containers and all the less imported baggage.

Officials involved in the operation say, the most obvious first step will be to remove large fuel and ballast to lighten the vessel, in combination with dredging away sand and to then attempt to pull it afloat.

It is also said that if those initial measures fail and the ship remains stuck, it will need to have its cargo of several thousand shipping containers removed, a job that could take weeks.

Contrary to reducing load on the ship, some dragging is being done which is not only damaging canal wall, but can certainly sink the ship deeper.  

I am amused to read lines like “While lives are not at stake this time, the vast economic interests in one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes make the urgency of the situation critical”.

The salvage company says, “It needs to come up with a plan that is acceptable to the ship owner, insurance companies, and the Egyptian, state-owned Suez Canal authority”.

“It is a difficult puzzle, because the ship is currently being strained by unnatural forces. We don’t want it to tip or tear in half during the salvage,” says the salvage company.

To conclude, I refer to Clemens Schapeler with global logistics platform Transporeon said, “I think the most likely outcome is that it will be refloated on Sunday or Monday. But the worst case (stuck for weeks) is a real possibility.”

A stuck container ship brings maritime traffic to grinding halt in Suez Canal

A stuck container ship brings maritime traffic to grinding halt in Suez Canal A container ship lodged itself in the middle of the Suez Canal on Tuesday, forcing maritime traffic to grinding halt in one of the world’s busiest waterways.

The Panama-flagged container ship en route from China to the Netherlands has been stuck in the Egyptian canal, while traveling north from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean.

Several tug boats have crowded around the ship for hours.

The ship blocked the Suez Canal in both directions, apparently causing other ships to wait for the Ever Given to move before continuing their passage.

The Egyptian government’s canal authority, and Taiwan-based ship operator Evergreen Marine, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The Suez Canal is one of the busiest canals in the world, serving as a key link between Europe and Asia for container ships, oil tankers and other vessels. Millions of tons of cargo pass through it every day. The Egyptian government expanded the 150-year-old canal in 2015, in a bid to attract even more traffic and send more fees from shipping companies into government coffers.

Mideast tensions reach new highs with Trump's term nearing end

Israel’s normally tense relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran has grown more taught in recent days, as mutual threats and promises of retaliation have been lobbed by both governments while the sides await Joe Biden to take oath. 

On Sunday, the spokesman for the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Parliament reacted harshly to last week’s news that an Israeli submarine had crossed the Suez Canal on its way to the Persian Gulf.

 “Israel must know that our response to aggression against our national security will be strong and massive,” Abu al-Fadl Amoui, told reporters, accusing the Jewish state of dragging the region “into a tension that creates chaos in the last days of the Trump presidency.”

Last week, a surfaced Israeli Dolphin AIP class submarine was spotted crossing the canal separating Israel and Egypt. According to several news outlets citing multiple sources, the rare – but not unprecedented – occasion was carried out with the approval of Cairo’s government and was meant to send a message to Tehran.

A few days later, Israeli military spokesperson Hidai Zilberman addressed the naval maneuver in an interview to a Saudi news site, noting that “Israeli submarines can sail everywhere” and urging Iran not to escalate the volatile situation.

“This isn’t the first time the navy has crossed the canal, so let’s not make too much of this. But yes, this was definitely meant for Iranian consumption,” a former commander within the Israeli submarine unit disclosed.

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump joined the fray himself, responding to a reported Iranian attack on the American diplomatic compound in Iraq with a series of direct threats at the ayatollah regime.

 “Our embassy in Baghdad got hit… by several rockets… guess where they were from: IRAN,” Trump tweeted. “Now we hear chatter of additional attacks against Americans in Iraq. Some friendly health advice to Iran: If one American is killed, I will hold Iran responsible. Think it over.”

Precisely one month ago, Iran’s top nuclear official Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated on the outskirts of Tehran, in an ambush blamed by Iranian security authorities on Israel. In recent years, top officials within the Republic’s nuclear program, as well as its most senior military commanders, have been the target of successful strikes by Israel and the US.

The most noticeable of these was the January killing of Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Revolutionary Guard’s elite Quds force, in an American drone attack in a Baghdad airport.

“The main reason for the current tension between the US and Iran is the remaining time [President] Trump has in the White House,” Prof. Eytan Gilboa, an expert on US policy in the Middle East at Bar-Ilan University’s Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, informed.

“There are three more weeks, and Trump is known for his unexpected nature of decisions,” Gilboa notes, adding: “I would give a very low probability to an initiated American or Israeli attack onn Iran. But with Trump - you never know. A small incident can develop into war.”

President-elect Joe Biden has in recent months stated he plans on rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which was reached between Iran, the five permanent UN Security Council members and Germany in 2015.

The deal called for the winding down of Iran’s nuclear aspirations and efforts in return for a lifting of sanctions by Europe and Washington.

In May 2018, President Trump pulled out of the pact and embarked on his ‘maximum pressure’ strategy of imposing crippling economic sanctions on Iranian individuals and institutions. Tehran responded by restarting its uranium enrichment program several months after Trump’s announcement.

Following Biden’s victory in the November presidential elections, Iran’s top officials have repeatedly insisted they will refuse to renegotiate the JCPOA and will not consider reducing the Republic’s military involvement in other arenas in the Middle East, two demands Biden’s incoming team has hinted it will present in future talks.

“What we have now is psychological warfare and an exchange of messages, both for immediate military purposes and for the post-Trump diplomacy,” says Gilboa, who in the past has served as senior adviser to Israel’s Foreign Ministry and prime minister.

“Biden will eventually have to articulate a policy and decide which, if any, of the Iranian preconditions – removal of sanctions, the return to the unchanged 2015 deal, the freezing of the Gulf normalization process with Israel – he’ll accept.”

Another factor that may directly affect the Tehran-Washington-Jerusalem relationship in the coming months is the 2021 presidential election in Iran.

“Those are critical,” Gilboa stresses. “We’ve seen in the past how domestic events influenced Iran’s foreign policy,” he said.