Two former Mossad chiefs and a former national
security council chief all said on Sunday that Iran had failed to avenge the
assassination of one of its most senior officials in 2020 and likely would not
do so prior to US President-Elect Joe Biden taking office. However, they all
told The Jerusalem Post that the Islamic Republic would eventually
find a moment to avenge the killing of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds
Force Chief Qasem Soleimani exactly one year ago. Former Mossad director
Shabtai Shavit told the Post that, “the Iranians’ patience is
never-ending.”
Shavit said that the killing of Soleimani in January 2020
along with the assassination of Iran military nuclear program Chief Mohsen
Fakrhizadeh in November was “a double blow against its military activity
in the Middle East” which it has not recovered from.
The Mossad Chief during 1989-1996 said that Esmail Ghaani
who replaced Soleimani “isn’t at a level even close to the same capabilities
and importance and managerial ability.”
Whereas Shavit said there is a continuous debate about
whether assassinations make sense, he said in the cases of Soleimani and
Fakrhrizadeh, there was no doubt.
“Some say they are not useful because one goes and the next
one comes into line and replaces him…the level of talent of the one who entered
his [Soleimani’s] shoes disproves that argument,” said the former spymaster.
In terms of retaliation, Shavit said that even though Tehran
has not successfully retaliated in a big way so far (it did fire missiles on US
bases and has failed at some other attempted plots), “we must take into
account that they will respond. They will wait for an opportunity to attack a
high quality target.” He gave the example of Iran and its proxies’ attacks on
the Israeli Embassy and Jewish Community Center in Argentina in 1992 and 1994.
Questioned if his example meant he believed Iran would
attack Israel or Jewish targets outside of the Jewish state, he responded, “When
they do an operation, they use the strategy of deniability. This way, legally
no one can bring them to court, but publicly everyone knows they did it.”
Former Mossad director Danny Yatom told the Post, “the
assassination [of Soleimani] was a very impressive one of strategic value
covering the full field with Iran.”
Yatom said, Soleimani, “was much more than just the leader
of the Quds Force. He was more important than the commander of the IRGC who
supposedly was his commander. He was very close to the supreme leader”
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The former Mossad chief from 1996-1998 said that the death of
Soleimani was “a harsh blow to both morale and actual operations…the Quds Force
is still licking its wounds.”
Yatom said that “since Ghaani relieved Soleimani, there is a
feeling that the Quds Force still hasn’t returned to the status it had before
the killing and I doubt if it can get back.”
“There are reports that Iran is looking for the chance to
attack an Israeli target or an American target. I don’t say that it is
impossible…but they have waited a full year and have not succeeded to avenge
one of the most important people in Iran,” he said.
He explained that, “this teaches us about the weakness of
the Quds Force and of the IRGC today now that they don’t have Soleimani.”
Yatom added that, “even under his [Soleimani’s] command,
attempts directly against Israeli territory itself were not successful,”
including years in which he tried to create a capability to attack Israel using
Shi’ite militias on the Syrian side of the Golan.
Former National Security Council Chief and Maj. Gen. (res.)
Giora Eiland said at a virtual Jerusalem Press Club event that Iran has, “no
interest today in resuming a large-scale confrontation with anyone, especially
not with the US in the next two weeks before the transition of the presidency.”
“So I don’t think anything dramatic will happen in the next
few days or hours just because it is the anniversary of the death” of
Soleimani, said Eiland. He continued, “But Iran feels that at some point, it
will have to retaliate, if not against the US, then against Israel or Israeli
interests.” Like Shavit, Eiland mentioned Iran’s proxies worldwide, including
in South America, which could attack Israeli and Jewish targets that are less
well-defended than Israel itself.
He added that, “They would probably prefer to do it after
Biden takes over. Trump is unpredictable,” and the Islamic Republic is hoping
they can lure Biden into rejoining the 2015 nuclear deal at a low price.
Despite heightened threats surrounding the one-year
anniversary of Soleimani’s death, he said both sides have taken actions to
reduce friction, such as the US moving an aircraft carrier out of the area.
Shavit concurred, saying that, “they won’t forget to
retaliate. Maybe the timing will be not when they are in negotiations with the
Americans…They would be foolish to carry out an attack [during negotiations]
just because they have an opportunity. But they are very shrewd people, you
can’t underestimate them.”
Further, Shavit warned that even if the assassination of
Soleimani worked this tool for fighting enemies must not be overused.
He said it could only be used for a very high quality target
whose removal achieves a major purpose or there could be a danger of Israel
losing some of its own ethics and humanity as well as facing increased global
criticism.
Eiland warned that Israel still needed to watch out for “a
cloudy Saturday morning when [mainland] Israeli targets may be attacked by
cruise missiles from Iran, Iraq, Yemen, or with ballistic missiles from
Hezbollah.”