United States extends undue favor to India

The US House of Representative has passed a legislative amendment that would protect India from punitive sanctions for buying missiles from Russia.

The India-specific amendment, passed on Thursday afternoon, still has to go through the Senate before it’s signed by President Joe Biden.

Authored and introduced by Indian-American Congressman Ro Khanna, urges the Biden administration to give India a waiver to the Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which can bring immediate sanctions against New Delhi for buying weapons from Moscow.

The amendment argues that such a waiver is needed to deter China’s influence in the region. It was passed by voice vote as part of an en bloc amendment during floor consideration of the US defence bill for 2023.

US law deems waiver ‘necessary’ to counter China’s growing global influence

The United States views India as a key ally in its effort to counter China’s growing global influence and has also included it in the alliance known as ‘Quad’ that aims to counter China in the Pacific region.

Enacted by the US Congress in 2017, CAATSA provides for punitive actions against any country engaged in transactions with Russian defence and intelligence sectors.

CAATSA became a sticking point in India-US ties after New Delhi inked a deal to secure the S-400 missile defence system from Moscow, in the midst of the Russia-Ukraine war. India has also violated US sanctions on buying oil from Russia.

In May, Senator Bob Menendez, who heads the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, pointed out at a congressional hearing that the Indians “go buy oil from Russia. They buy the S-400 anti-missile system. They abstain at the United Nations on votes criticizing Russia and yet they were never punished for these violations.

Khanna, who is Vice Chair of the India Caucus in the US Congress, however, urged Washington to “stand with India in the face of escalating aggression from China”.

The Reuters news agency reported this week that India’s oil imports from Russia surged to a record of around 950,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June, as Indian refiners snapped up Russian oil sold at hefty discounts.

India shipped in about 4.8 million bpd of oil in June, about 23 per cent higher than a year earlier, the report added.

India faces sanctions under CAATSA

Moscow has started supplying New Delhi with S-400 air defense missile systems said Dmitry Shugayev, the head of the Russian military cooperation agency. The deal between Russia and India, worth around US$5.5 billion was signed in 2018 for five long-range surface-to-air missile systems. New Delhi believes it is crucial for countering China.

The deal attracts attention of the experts to the US legislation called Countering America's Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). It is the US Federal Law signed on August 02, 2017 that requires the US President to sanction Russian, North Korean and Iranian, punishing direct or indirect support of them. The three sections of CAASTA are aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program, reducing Russian growing influence in Europe and Eurasia and curbing North Korean weapons of mass destruction.

The US applied CAASTA on Turkey in January 2021 after it bought S-400 systems from Moscow. But sanctioning India under CAATSA appears to be a herculean task for Washington. New Delhi is not bothered about CAATSA, being considered a US law, and not one by the United Nations. In March 2021 Lloyd Austin, US Secretary of Defense raised concerns over India’s planned procurement of the S-400 air defense missile. He had accentuated that the US allies and partners ought to shun “any kind of acquisitions that will trigger sanctions”.

Austin soon after clarified that the question of sanctioning India was not under consideration as New Delhi had not taken delivery of the system; sanctions would be applied only when deliveries took place, Austin added.

Interestingly, India has purchased S-400 air defense missile systems from Russia. A few queries remain unanswered. Will the US impose sanctions against India under CAATSA? If sanctioned are applied what would be the Indian reaction?

India, arguably, is a robust bulwark of the US against the containment of China sanctioning would loss a strategic ally in the Indo-Pacific region. Meanwhile, India and Russia have a long history of military relations since the era of the Soviet Union.

Currently in the military services of India nearly 86% of the weapons, equipment, and platforms are of Russian origin. The US started selling weapons and equipment to India in 2001 after easing its relations with New Delhi.

Russian air defense system is extensively used in the Indian military; the latter is unlikely to compromise on the former’s sophisticated weapons. Sanctioning India will reduce Indian military buttress vis-à-vis China and will swing New Delhi to Moscow that the US never wants to happen. The US is fully cognizant of the fact that if sanctions are imposed will alienate India resulting in losing Indian arms market damaging the US military-industrial complex.

The fact of matter is that instead of sanctioning and alienating India, the US presumably will occupy the Indian arms market by competing with Russian weapons and equipment in terms of performance and price. 

On the other hand, there is a great deal of likelihood that CAATSA will bypass India, under the Act’s “modified waiver authority” for “certain sanctionable transactions’ granted by the US president Joe Biden. India has already been lobbying in Washington for CAATSA waiver over the S-400 air defense missile systems.

Indian diplomats and security officials reassured the US that both India and the US had a comprehensive global strategic partnership and both were having a threat from China and S-400 air defense missile systems were attributed to countering China. New Delhi had also guaranteed the protection of the US materiel and the US “technical and operational secrecy”.

India predominantly reassured Washington that the former was willing to reduce its dependency on the Russian defense equipment in the foreseeable future. India, as a result, was backed by three Republican senators presented an amendment in Congress to the National Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023 with the aim of making obstacles for the U.S. in the imposition of CAATSA on India.

The latest US legislation, called the Circumspectly Reducing Unintended Consequences Impairing Alliances and Leadership (CRUCIAL) Act, 2021 maintains that CAATSA will only weaken the US security in the Indo-Pacific region.

Ted Cruza a Republican senator argues that “Now would be exactly the wrong time for President Biden to undo all of that progress (in partnering India) through the imposition of these sanctions”.

S-400 obviously ushers a path to a diplomatic crisis for the Biden administration. Applying CAATSA on India will dilute the strategic coherence of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue QUAD in the Indo-Pacific undermining US diplomatic ties with India in the containment of China.

Moscow also looks forward to taking advantage of the sanctions reclaiming its role as an Indian bona fide military partner. Applying of sanctions would remain a geostrategic victory of Russia damaging the US Indo-Pacific strategy overwhelmingly.

Beijing remains a prime adversary of the US and India that forces both countries to be strategic allies in the region. However, the S-400 air defense missile somewhat caused a rift in the diplomatic ties of the US and India.

It can be argued that the irresponsible US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the non-inclusion of India in the AUKUS compelled India to move towards Moscow in a bid to pressurize the United States.

The US certainly hangs in the balance as far as CAATSA is concerned. On one hand, sanctioning India will bring New Delhi and Moscow further closer, weakening the US containment policy of China and the credibility of the Quad. On the other, non-imposition of CAATSA would tarnish the US image globally, showcasing its selective approach in punishment of the countries.