Yemen Key Test in China Middle East Diplomacy

China scored a diplomatic coup by restoration of ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, announced on Friday, March 10. But the two rivals for primacy in the Persian Gulf are still a long way off from sharing the neighborhood.

The first litmus test will be whether they can even share Yemen, where their proxies have been at war for eight years.

Given the intense rivalry and extreme volatility in their past relations, using terms like rapprochement and détente to describe the renewal of ties seem premature.

Even “reconciliation” remains to be seen. Since the I979 Islamic revolution in Iran, the two countries have gone through repeated cycles of intense hostility with only short-lived thaws.

The low points include the Saudi shooting down of four Iranian F-4 fighter jets in 1984, the Saudi killing of 275 Iranian pilgrims in Mecca in 1987, and the severance of diplomatic relations first from 1988 to 1991 and then again from 2016 to 2023.

Both breaks in relations were initiated by Saudi Arabia after Iranians ransacked the Saudi embassy in Tehran.

The high points saw visits to the Saudi kingdom by two former Iranian presidents.  Mohammed Khatami made the trip in 1999 - the first by any president since the Islamic revolution - and returned again for a four-day stay in 2002. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad went three times, twice in 2007. Saudi Crown Prince Abdallah, in turn, traveled to Tehran in 1997 for an Islamic summit and received red carpet treatment.

The two sides have tried in vain, again and again, to formalize a working relationship. Since 1991, the Iranians have repeatedly put forth a proposal for an alliance with the Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to establish security architecture for the Gulf. The Saudis have always viewed the proposition as a ruse to eliminate the US military presence there and therefore shown no interest.

Still the Saudis have at times signed pacts with the Iranians.  In May 1998, the two rivals signed a Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement and in 2001 a security agreement to fight together against terrorism, drug smuggling, and money laundering. The latter agreement was hailed in the Saudi press as historic and in the words of Iran’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia at that time, “the most important development in the history of relations between the two countries.” Neither agreement took hold.

Given this very checkered history in their relationship, the question is,  what chance does the latest restoration of ties have to, find an effective way to share the neighborhood and institute some sort of cold peace, as Obama put it in his 2016 interview with The Atlantic?

Saudi leaders have long insisted it is up to Iran to take the first step by showing some sign of retreat in its relentless drive to establish a key political role in Arab nations of the Middle East.

The main indicator for them is Yemen, Saudi Arabia’s southern neighbor where it has long been the dominant foreign power. Houthi rebels seized control of the capital Sanaa in September 2014, and Iran quickly came to their military and political support.

The Saudis responded with an invasion the following March and armed Yemeni tribes opposed to the Houthis. They also established a rival Yemeni government based in the south that gained international recognition, even though its rule has been increasingly disputed by secessionists there.

For Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), the Yemen venture has proven an albatross. He was personally responsible for leading it when the Saudi invasion began, as he had just been named defense minister by his father, King Salman. In fact, it was his first major foreign policy decision. It has led to the souring of his relations with the US Congress that has repeatedly demanded an end to all US military aid and sales to Saudi Arabia because of the disastrous outcomes of the war.

Right now, fighting between pro-Saudi and pro-Iranian Yemeni factions has reached a standstill, UN mediators last year negotiated a ceasefire, while periodically broken, still remains largely in place. Yemen itself is in ruins, however, and is one of the world’s worst humanitarian disasters, with 227,000 dead from famine alone, according to UN estimates.

The question now is whether Saudi Arabia and Iran can find a modus vivendi in Yemen upon which to build a real détente, or at least a cold peace.

This would probably require Saudi Arabia to recognize the Houthi government in Sanaa and its control over northern Yemen, where most of Yemen’s 33 million people live.

Iran would have to terminate arms supplies to the Houthis. These have included missiles and drones that the Houthis have rained down by the hundreds on strategic targets inside the Saudi kingdom, including its oil and gas facilities.

Saudi negotiators have held periodic talks for months now, with both emissaries from Iran in Baghdad and those of the Houthis in Muscat, Oman, but no agreement has been announced.

In any case, it remains far from clear if Iran is ready to stop arming the Houthis. On the contrary, a statement in early February from the US Central Command said, “US, British, and French warships had seized 5,000 rifles, 1.5 million rounds of ammunition, scores of anti-tank missiles, and parts for ballistic missiles from dhows plying the Gulf of Oman on their way from Iran to the Houthis.

They had carried out four seizures over the past two months. In addition, the British Navy declared it had captured more Iranian antitank missiles and fins for ballistic missiles from dhows on February 23.

These arms shipments could be the last before Iran stops as part of a deal with Saudi Arabia. Or, it could be a sign Iran is backing a new Houthi offensive in the making. The Houthis have been trying to extend their hold over Yemen to include its oil fields and pipelines in the center and south of the country.

A new campaign would almost certainly sink any hopes for an eventual Iranian-Saudi détente as well as China’s diplomatic bid to become a power player in the Gulf.

 

Iran-US clash at UN General Assembly

The United States and Iran clashed on security and human rights, with Iranian President demanding US guarantees to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and the US President vowing Tehran would never get an atomic bomb.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi struck a defiant tone at the United Nations General Assembly by decrying "double standards" on human rights after the death of an Iranian woman in police custody that has sparked protests around Iran.

Raisi also said Tehran wanted former US President Donald Trump to face trial for the 2020 killing of Iran's top Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in a US drone attack in Iraq, holding up a picture of the general.

"There is a great and serious will to resolve all issues to revive the (2015 nuclear) deal," Raisi told the UN General Assembly. "We only wish one thing: observance of commitments."

Speaking later, US President Joe Biden reiterated his willingness to revive the nuclear pact under which Iran had agreed to restrain its atomic program in return for relief from economic sanctions.

In 2018, Trump withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal and unilaterally reimposed sanctions that have hobbled Iran's economy.

A year later, Tehran reacted by gradually violating the deal's nuclear limits and reviving US, Israeli and Gulf Arab fears that Iran may be seeking to obtain an atomic weapon, an ambition Iran denies.

"We have before us the experience of America's withdrawal from the (deal)," Raisi said. "With that experience and this perspective, can we ignore the important issue of guarantees for a durable agreement?"

Raisi did not mention Iran's demand that investigations by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) into traces of uranium found at three undeclared Iranian sites be closed, a major stumbling block to reviving the deal.

The US and European officials have said the probes can only be closed if Iran provides satisfactory answers to the UN nuclear watchdog whose chief, Rafael Grossi, said these issues cannot be wished away.

"The Islamic Republic considers the double standards of some governments in the field of human rights as the most important factor in the institutionalization of human rights violations," Raisi said in a text of his speech released by his office.

"Human rights belongs to all, but unfortunately it is trampled upon by many governments," Raisi added, referring to the discovery of unmarked graves of indigenous people in Canada, the suffering of the Palestinians and images of migrant children held in cages in the United States.

"While the United States is prepared for a mutual return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action if Iran steps up to its obligations, the United States is clear. We will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon," Biden said.

"We stand with the brave citizens and the brave women of Iran who right now are demonstrating to secure their basic rights," Biden added.

Israel mounts pressure on United States not to join JOCPA

US Defense Secretary, Lloyd Austin met with his Israeli counterpart on Thursday to discuss concerns over Iran and ways to prevent the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon, the Pentagon confirmed. 

During the meeting at the Pentagon with Israeli Defense Minister Benjamin Gantz, Austin “confirmed US resolve to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon,” the Defense Department (DOD) said in a statement.

Austin and Gantz also “discussed shared concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear provocations, support for terrorism, and missile program” and “reiterated US commitment to Israel’s security and qualitative military edge,” according to the statement.

While the DOD confirmed the meeting, a spokesman declined to address a Reuters report that said the two defense leaders would also touch on possible Iran-focused military exercises.

“I know there’s interest in a certain Reuters report,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby told reporters on Thursday prior to the meeting. 

“I will tell you this, we routinely conduct exercises and training with our Israeli counterparts and I have nothing to announce to or speak to or point to or speculate about today.”

Kirby would only say that Austin and Gantz would discuss Iran and its continued destabilizing activities.

Gantz had tweeted Wednesday to say he and Austin would “discuss possible modes of action to ensure the cessation of Iran's attempt to enter the nuclear sphere and broaden its activity in the region.”

Reuters reported that the two defense chiefs were expected to talk about possible military exercises meant to prepare for a worst-case scenario to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities should the United States and Iran not be able to revive a 2015 nuclear deal abandoned by then-President Trump.

 A senior US official told Reuters that on October 25 Pentagon leaders briefed White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan on military options available to prevent Iran from producing a nuclear weapon.

The two meetings come as indirect talks on restarting a nuclear deal with Tehran have hit a snag, with very little progress being made during negotiations in Vienna.

Iran has already restarted production of enriching uranium, amassing a small stockpile of the material of at least 60% purity. Uranium needs to be enriched to 90% purity for nuclear weapons development.

Further signaling that the Biden administration is preparing for possible fallout, the US is considering sending a delegation to the United Arab Emirates, a close trading partner of Iran, to discuss possible economic sanctions, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.

Iran, meanwhile, has denied it is seeking to develop nuclear weapons and only wants to master the technology.

Nuclear negotiations were expected to resume on Thursday, and the US special envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, is set to join them over the weekend.

 

Iran’s Natanz nuclear facilities hit for third time since July 2020

A question is getting louder; did Mossad or someone just try to sabotage Iran’s nuclear facilities at Natanz for the third time since July 2020? Natanz was hit by physical explosive sabotage in July 2020 and again in April this past year.

Reports were still hazy, but as of Saturday night, the narratives varied from Iran undertook a preplanned air defense drill unrelated to sabotage, to it shot down an attack drone thwarting a sabotage attempt. Electricity and Internet were down for some unspecified part of Natanz, which could mean a sabotage attempt succeeded, but the Islamic Republic is still trying to cover it up.

Reportedly, July 2020 attack was more successful and destroyed the vast majority of an above-ground nuclear site. April attack destroyed centrifuges and a variety of utilities of a newer underground site, but only fully delayed Iran’s advanced centrifuge progress for about four months, while causing some longer-term slowdowns.

Curiously, the April attack took place near the start of Vienna nuclear negotiations. If this event was an attack, it would have taken place at the end of a new first week of nuclear negotiations.

Both in July 2020 and this past April, Iran initially tried to deny there was an attack or deny its success until The Jerusalem Post reported that the attacks were successful and had caused severe damage.

Following the Post’s and other media reports, Tehran was forced to acknowledge that its nuclear sites had been hit, and badly.

It later accused the Mossad of both hits, so Tehran’s initial denials should be taken with a grain of salt.

Another nuclear site, Karaj, was hit this past June, days after Ebrahim Raisi was elected Iran’s new president.

This could be a second message to Raisi that his attempt to push the envelope with increasing nuclear violations as well as taking maximalist positions in Vienna could leave him vulnerable, even if much of the West is intimidated by him.

Or maybe this time Iran’s air defenses improved and thwarted an attack.

Then again, for the first time in four such similar events, maybe it was just a pre-planned air-defense drill.

Satellite footage made it impossible for Tehran to cover up the damage in both Natanz attacks, but strangely, satellite footage was slower in coming with Karaj, when Raisi had taken power and the Biden administration was seeking a return to talks.

It will be interesting to see what satellite footage shows this time.

Iran shoots down intruding US spy drone

In a statement issued early Thursday, the IRGC said the US-made Global Hawk surveillance drone was brought down by its Air Force near Kouh-e Mobarak region, after the aircraft violated Iranian airspace. The downing came after repeated violations of Iran’s airspace by US reconnaissance drones in the Persian Gulf region.

Reacting to the news, the US military claimed it did not fly over Iranian airspace on Wednesday. “No US aircraft were operating in Iranian airspace today,” said Navy Captain Bill Urban, a spokesman for the American military’s Central Command.

However, according to Associated Press an American military drone had been shot down in “international airspace” over the Strait of Hormuz by an Iranian surface-to-air missile. The drone was a US Navy MQ-4C Triton, which builds on elements of the RQ-4 Global Hawk with minor changes.

The RQ-4 Global Hawk unmanned aircraft system (UAS) can fly at high altitudes for more than 30 hours, gathering near-real-time, high-resolution imagery of large areas of land in all types of weather. The Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton is a maritime derivative of the RQ-4B Global Hawk and the airborne element of the US Navy’s Broad Area Maritime Surveillance Unmanned Aircraft System.

 Interestingly no MQ-4C is supposed to be in the Middle East. The deployment must have been secret. Update: This specific drone seems to have arrived in Qatar only a few days ago.

The incident is another piece of evidence that Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran now works against him.

In December last year, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta had told Fox News that the US will "absolutely" continue the drone campaign over Iran, looking for evidence of any nuclear weapons work. But the stakes are higher for such surveillance, now that Iran can apparently disrupt the work of US drones.

During an appearance with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Trump said, “Probably Iran made a mistake – I would imagine it was a general or somebody that made a mistake in shooting that drone down.”
According to officials in Jerusalem, Israel is closely monitoring the situation, although the IDF has not moved to a heightened alert status. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the issue briefly in a statement, saying, “In the last 24 hours Iran has intensified its aggression against the US and against all of us. And I repeat my call for all peace-loving countries to stand by the US in its effort to stop Iranian aggression. Israel stands by the US on this.”

Netanyahu’s comments were similar to what he said lately, following last week’s attacks on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman. He had urged all peace-seeking nations to support the US and Trump in their efforts to ensure freedom of navigation in international waterways.