Iran: Finding Ebrahim Raisi Replacement

The next president of Iran is likely to be a hardliner unwaveringly loyal to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with a background in the Revolutionary Guards. It has to be someone with an unblemished background and devoid of political rivalries.

It is believed that Khamenei, Iran's ageing ultimate decision maker, seeks a fiercely loyal president in the June 28 election to run the country day-to-day and be a trusted ally who can ensure stability, amid manoeuvring over the eventual succession to his own position.

Registration for candidates opens on Thursday, although that is only the beginning of a process that will see hopefuls vetted by the Guardian Council, a hardline watchdog body that disqualifies candidates without always publicizing the reason.

The primary goal seems to be securing the election of a president who is intensely loyal to the supreme leader and his ideals. The victory of a hardline president is aimed shaping a smooth transition at the pinnacle of power, nevertheless presents a conundrum for the ruling clerics managing the vote next month.

To ensure the winner is a diehard Khamenei loyalist, it is likely the upcoming election will be dominated by hardliners.

The west fears that restricting the choice on the ballot is likely to dampen voters' interest and keep turnout low.

The quandary is a familiar one in Iran. In a race where those who run are carefully reviewed, typically the challenge for the clerical establishment is securing a high turnout.

The Guardian Council will publish the list of qualified candidates on June 11, 2024.

Raisi clinched victory in 2021 election on a turnout of about 49% - a significant drop from the 70% seen in 2017 and 76% in 2013.

Critics say the turnout reflected discontent over economic hardship and social and political restrictions which drove months of protests ignited by the death of a young woman arrested by the morality police in 2022.

Including low-key moderate candidates on the ballot might be a way to attract a larger turnout, some analysts say.

Currently sidelined from power, reformists remain faithful to Iran's theocratic rule but advocate improved relations with the West, and gradual moves towards more freedom of expression and a loosening of strict Islamic dress code.

Reformist former senior official Mohammad Ali Abtahi said the pro-reform camp would contest the election if its candidate was permitted to participate.

The cycle of low voter turnout, which has ensured hardliner victories in past parliament and presidential elections, can be changed.

The reformists' electoral strength remains unclear, as some voters believe they failed to bring greater freedoms in the periods when they were in power.

The 2022 protests exposed a widening breach between the reformists and demonstrators demanding regime change.

Even allowing a few known moderates to contest election might not be enough to get people to turn out. Voters have been repeatedly misled by the idea that reform-minded candidates ... would produce real change.

A new president would be unlikely to make any change to Iran's nuclear or foreign policy, both of which are controlled by the supreme leader.

The registration of candidates could include Parviz Fattah, a former Guards member who heads an investment fund linked to the leader, and Saeed Jalili, a former chief nuclear negotiator who in 2001 ran Khamenei's office for four years.

Interim President Mohammad Mokhber and former parliament speaker and a Khamenei adviser, Ali Larijani, have also been mentioned in Iranian media as possible candidates, Larijani was barred from participating in 2021 presidential race.

 

Cordial Saudi-Iranian ties to continue, say MBS

Iranian interim president, Mohammad Mokhber, received a phone call from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman on Friday afternoon in which he underscored that the cordial relations between Tehran and Riyadh will continue after the passing of President Ebrahim Raisi. 

“The incident was very painful for us. The loss of Raisi hurt all of us, and the loss of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran, who was very friendly with our Minister of Foreign Affairs, was also sorrowful,” the Saudi crown prince was quoted by Iranian media as telling Mokhber. 

Bin Salman stressed that Saudi Arabia will continue the path of developing relations with Iran, a goal that he described as being pursued by President Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian. 

He announced his country's readiness to expand economic relations with Iran.

Mokhber, for his part, thanked Saudi Arabia for its messages of condolences with Iran over the demise of its president. 

Describing the expansion of relations with neighboring countries as one of the important strategies of the late President Raisi, Mokhber noted, “It was difficult for us to lose a popular and hardworking president like Raisi, but the course of the country will not change and the same spirit of interest and trust between Iran and Saudi Arabia during the martyred president's term will continue.”

He stressed, “The continuation of the neighborhood policy of the 13th government and the development of relations with the countries of the region is the only option before all of us, and companionship and empathy with each other is the guarantee of stability and prosperity in the region.”

In this call, Mokhber invited the Saudi crown prince to pay a visit to Iran. Bin Salman accepted the invitation and extended an invitation for Mokhber to visit Saudi Arabia. 

 

Iran: Mohammad Mokhber, Interim President

According to Articles 130 and 131 of the first edition of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran (adopted in 1979), the first vice president – Mohammad Mokhber – will step in and assume the duties of the president after the death of President Ebrahim Raisi.

The Constitution stipulates that these responsibilities are transferred to the First Vice President with the approval of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, and within 50 days the country needs to go to an election to elect a new president.

According to the Iranian political hierarchy, the head of the state is the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, and the president is considered the head of the government, the second-in-command.

In case of sudden death, the first vice president is expected to guide the country through this transitional period until new presidential elections are held. 

The Iranian constitution was amended in 1989, when important changes were instituted. 

Here are some key facts about Mohammad Mokhber:

As interim president, Mokhber will be part of a three-person council, along with the speaker of parliament and the head of the judiciary, that will organise a new presidential election within 50 days of the president's death.

Born on September 01, 1955, Mokhber, like Raisi, is seen as close to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has the last say in all matters of state. Mokhber became first vice president in 2021 when Raisi was elected president.

Mokhber was part of a team of Iranian officials who visited Moscow in October last year and agreed to supply surface-to-surface missiles and more drones to Russian military. The team also included two senior officials from Iran's Revolutionary Guards and an official from the Supreme National Security Council.

Mokhber had previously been head of Setad, an investment fund linked to the supreme leader.

In 2010, the European Union included Mokhber on a list of individuals and entities it was sanctioning for alleged involvement in "nuclear or ballistic missile activities". Two years later, it removed him from the list.

In 2013, the US Treasury Department added Setad and 37 companies it oversaw to a list of sanctioned entities.

Setad, whose full name is Setad Ejraiye Farmane Hazrate Emam, or the Headquarters for Executing the Order of the Imam, was set up under an order issued by the founder of the Islamic Republic, Khamenei's predecessor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. It ordered aides to sell and manage properties supposedly abandoned in the chaotic years after the 1979 Islamic Revolution and channel the bulk of the proceeds to charity.