Iran election: Doesn’t matter who win

Masoud Pezeshkian has won the country's run-off presidential vote, the interior ministry said on Saturday. "By gaining majority of the votes cast on Friday, Pezeshkian has become Iran's next president," it said.

The low-profile moderate Masoud Pezeshkian, who has pledged to open Iran to the world and deliver freedoms its people have yearned for, is expected to win the run-off presidential vote on Friday.

Reportedly, the vote counting has ended and the rival candidates have been informed about the result. Pezeshkian is around three million votes ahead of his hardline rival Saeed Jalili.

Earlier, the interior ministry said that Pezeshkian was leading the race in early results, adding that the initial reports showed turnout was around 50%, higher than the first round.

The run-off follows a June 28 ballot with historically low turnout, when over 60% of Iranian voters abstained from the snap election for a successor to Ebrahim Raisi, following his death in a helicopter crash.

The vote is a tight race between low-key lawmaker Pezeshkian, the sole moderate in the original field of four candidates, and hardline former nuclear negotiator Jalili, a staunch advocate of deepening ties with Russia and China.

Videos on social media showed supporters of Pezeshkian dancing in streets in several cities and motorists honking car horns to cheer his victory.

People in the northwestern city of Urmia, Pezeshkian's hometown, were handing sweets out on the streets.

While the election is expected to have little impact on the Islamic Republic's policies, the president will be closely involved in selecting the successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's 85-year-old Supreme Leader who calls all the shots on top matters of state.

Western media says, voter turnout has plunged over the past four years, which underlines that support for clerical rule has eroded at a time of growing public discontent over economic hardship and curbs on political and social freedoms.

Only 48% of voters participated in the 2021 election that brought Raisi to power, and turnout was 41% in a parliamentary election in March.

The election coincides with escalating Middle East tensions due to the war between Israel and Iranian allies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as increased Western pressure on Iran over its fast-advancing uranium enrichment program.

"Voting gives power ... even if there are criticisms, people should vote as each vote is like a missile launch (against enemies)," said Iran's Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Commander Amirali Hajizadeh.

The next president is not expected to produce any major policy shift on the nuclear program or change in support for militia groups across the Middle East, but he runs the government day-to-day and can influence the tone of Iran's foreign and domestic policy.

Election rivals Jalili and Pezeshkian are establishment men loyal to Iran's theocracy. But analysts said a win by the anti-Western Jalili would signal a potentially an even more authoritarian domestic policy and antagonistic foreign policy.

A triumph by Pezeshkian might promote a pragmatic foreign policy, ease tensions over now-stalled negotiations with major powers to revive a 2015 nuclear deal, and improve prospects for social liberalization and political pluralism.

However, many voters are skeptical about Pezeshkian's ability to fulfil his campaign promises as the former health minister has publicly stated that he had no intention of confronting Iran's power elite of clerics and security hawks.

 

 

Iran: Finding Ebrahim Raisi Replacement

The next president of Iran is likely to be a hardliner unwaveringly loyal to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with a background in the Revolutionary Guards. It has to be someone with an unblemished background and devoid of political rivalries.

It is believed that Khamenei, Iran's ageing ultimate decision maker, seeks a fiercely loyal president in the June 28 election to run the country day-to-day and be a trusted ally who can ensure stability, amid manoeuvring over the eventual succession to his own position.

Registration for candidates opens on Thursday, although that is only the beginning of a process that will see hopefuls vetted by the Guardian Council, a hardline watchdog body that disqualifies candidates without always publicizing the reason.

The primary goal seems to be securing the election of a president who is intensely loyal to the supreme leader and his ideals. The victory of a hardline president is aimed shaping a smooth transition at the pinnacle of power, nevertheless presents a conundrum for the ruling clerics managing the vote next month.

To ensure the winner is a diehard Khamenei loyalist, it is likely the upcoming election will be dominated by hardliners.

The west fears that restricting the choice on the ballot is likely to dampen voters' interest and keep turnout low.

The quandary is a familiar one in Iran. In a race where those who run are carefully reviewed, typically the challenge for the clerical establishment is securing a high turnout.

The Guardian Council will publish the list of qualified candidates on June 11, 2024.

Raisi clinched victory in 2021 election on a turnout of about 49% - a significant drop from the 70% seen in 2017 and 76% in 2013.

Critics say the turnout reflected discontent over economic hardship and social and political restrictions which drove months of protests ignited by the death of a young woman arrested by the morality police in 2022.

Including low-key moderate candidates on the ballot might be a way to attract a larger turnout, some analysts say.

Currently sidelined from power, reformists remain faithful to Iran's theocratic rule but advocate improved relations with the West, and gradual moves towards more freedom of expression and a loosening of strict Islamic dress code.

Reformist former senior official Mohammad Ali Abtahi said the pro-reform camp would contest the election if its candidate was permitted to participate.

The cycle of low voter turnout, which has ensured hardliner victories in past parliament and presidential elections, can be changed.

The reformists' electoral strength remains unclear, as some voters believe they failed to bring greater freedoms in the periods when they were in power.

The 2022 protests exposed a widening breach between the reformists and demonstrators demanding regime change.

Even allowing a few known moderates to contest election might not be enough to get people to turn out. Voters have been repeatedly misled by the idea that reform-minded candidates ... would produce real change.

A new president would be unlikely to make any change to Iran's nuclear or foreign policy, both of which are controlled by the supreme leader.

The registration of candidates could include Parviz Fattah, a former Guards member who heads an investment fund linked to the leader, and Saeed Jalili, a former chief nuclear negotiator who in 2001 ran Khamenei's office for four years.

Interim President Mohammad Mokhber and former parliament speaker and a Khamenei adviser, Ali Larijani, have also been mentioned in Iranian media as possible candidates, Larijani was barred from participating in 2021 presidential race.

 

Iranian presidential elections and fate of JCPOA negotiations

The next elections in Iran are scheduled for 18th June 2021. It is but obvious that the best efforts of President Rouhani’s team would be to get the sanctions imposed on the country removed and make a place for themselves in the history. He has stated that within the last 100 days of his presidency he would be able to get the sanctions lifted and relieve the economy.

As against this, the European countries, especially those not too keen in removing the sanctions may chose to slow down the process. Their choice would be to pressurize the newly elected regime to agree on revised terms and conditions.

The Vienna negotiations entered their third week on Tuesday 27th April 2021. Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s top negotiator, described the last meeting of the Joint Commission of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Actions (JCPOA) ‘on the right track’.

 However, it is evident that a confrontation is going on. Iran, China and Russia unanimously and unequivocally called for the immediate lifting of the sanctions. Iran is patiently waiting for E3 (Germany, France and Britain) to call on the US to lift all the sanctions.

But that is unlikely to happen, as E3 has shown in the past that they have no free will of their own. Time and again, they have followed what the US has said.

The Biden administration is said to be looking into possibilities of easing banking, oil and finance sanctions on Iran. Immediate removal of all sanctions in a verifiable way is the only demand Iran has.

The JCPOA experience proves that when sanctions are lifted on paper, nothing practical is done. After the JCPOA, Iran kept struggling with issues such as transferring its money withheld in other countries. 

The Biden administration must understand that delaying tactics will not help. Leader of the Islamic Revolution is asking all sides not to engage in ‘erosive and prolonged’ negotiations, but expedite the process. Yet, the United States keeps saying that they do not want to rush into a deal. 

“We expect this to be a long process. And we're very much at just the beginning period,” Jen Psaki, the White House spokesperson, said on April 8.

The US seems to be insisting that the negotiations would take longer than expected. History suggests that the US is likely to wait and see what happens in the elections, as they reportedly did in 2013, when John Kerry halted the negotiations. 

There are many details that need to be ironed out. For example, the sanctions on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), along with the sanctions on the office of Ayatollah Khamenei, Leader of the Islamic Revolution, need to be resolved. According to the Wall Street Journal, there is a big difference of opinion about the removal of sanctions on these two sides.

As regards stance of potential presidential candidates, they have announced their plans for the continuation of negotiations, if elected.

Rostam Ghasemi, former Minister of Petroleum during Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s administration and a presidential candidate, stated that sanctions removal is his first priority, and he will take the control of the negotiations himself if elected. 

Making the sanctions ineffective is his next priority. “If I want to negotiate, I will strengthen the country’s economy,” Ghasemi said.

“We should change the ‘imploring diplomacy’ to the diplomacy of power,” he said on his possible government’s diplomacy.

He added that the United States “must return to the JCPOA without any preconditions.”

Saeed Jalili, another potential and highly anticipated presidential candidate, is expected to continue the negotiations if elected. Based on his past experience as the Secretary General of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and him being Iran’s Chief Nuclear Negotiator between 2010 and 2013, it is likely that he would continue the negotiations. 

Saeed Mohammad, the former Director of Khatam-al -Anbiya Construction Headquarters and a mysterious figure to many Iranians, has officially announced that he is running for president.

He has also declared that he is open to negotiations, on the condition that Iran “strengthens itself internally.”