Egypt recently took the initiative to host a summit in order
to address the civil war in Sudan. The summit brought together leaders from
several countries, including the Central African Republic, Chad, Eritrea,
Ethiopia, Libya, and South Sudan.
However, notably absent from the summit were representatives
from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). At the
Cairo summit, the Egyptian leadership wanted to draw a framework for any
potential peace agreement and to remind all parties to facilitate the
humanitarian corridors for civilians for aid delivery.
Egypt
possesses historical and political influence in the MENA region, enabling it to
potentially bring about an end to the conflict. By engaging directly with the
key stakeholders in Sudan as well as their regional supporters, Egypt can
initiate negotiations for sustainable political reforms by creating the
environment where both sides and their supporters agree to sit together and try
to reach sustainable peace.
The conflict has the potential to be long-lasting due to the
steadfastness of both parties in their positions. General Mohamed Hemeti
declared that he is present on the field and would not cease fighting until he
achieved the desired goal, overthrow the government and seize power. Similarly,
General Abdel Fattah Al-Barhan announced that he was defending the Sudanese
state's sovereignty.
Numerous
efforts to bring about peace in Sudan have proven unsuccessful so far due to
disagreements involving the mediators and the parties involved in the conflict.
A notable instance occurred when Khartoum raised objections to the peace
initiative presented by Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and
rejected Kenya’s chairmanship of the conflict resolution committee, claiming
that the Kenyan president favors the RSF. Furthermore, both parties opposed a
demand from Ethiopia to impose a no-fly zone in Sudan. Additionally,
Sudan vehemently rejected a proposal to deploy East African forces, even going
so far as to threaten the suspension of its membership in the East African bloc
of IGAD.
The Sudanese leadership strongly believes that the
deployment of foreign troops would only prolong the conflict by potentially
involving external actors. They also harbor concerns that Ethiopia and Kenya
may stand to benefit from Sudan's vulnerability and its inability to unite its
own factions, thereby gaining regional power.
This objection to various proposals from neighboring
countries indicates that the solution in Sudan can’t be found through
traditional ways. The warring parties have to agree on one regional mediator—a
country or a regional organization with good relations with both SAF and RSF—to
end the conflict.
The Cairo summit stressed that the Sudan conflict would only
be resolved in Sudan, closing the door to any external interference in Sudan.
An announcement is welcomed in Khartoum, but it still could not end the
conflict or at least bring both warring parties to the negotiation table.
Egypt and Sudan have long
been connected by historical, social, and political ties, as well as a shared
destiny as one nation. This led the Egyptian Parliament in October 1951 to
amend King Farouk's title to the King of Egypt and Sudan.
Egypt fears that the outbreak of conflict in Sudan could
lead to the influx of mercenaries and armed militants through the country's
southern borders. Intelligence reports suggest that Hemeti and his forces
receive military support from several Arab and foreign countries.
Reports
have also revealed a relationship between the Wagner Group, a Russian military
contractor, and the Rapid Support Forces.
The
Wall Street Journal reported that General Khalifa Haftar in Libya is supplying
weapons to Hemeti.
This unstable security situation in Sudan, coupled with the
availability of arms and equipment from various regional and international
parties, is a cause for concern for the Egyptian administration.
Egypt maintains strong alliances and close ties with the
United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Libya, making it an important regional
player. Furthermore, Egypt has established a stable relationship with Russia.
These connections enable Egypt to communicate effectively with its regional
allies, who possess significant influence and leverage over the RSF, thereby
increasing the chances of initiating negotiations.
Egypt enjoys a distinct bond with the Sudanese army,
characterized by shared experiences and military strategies. By leveraging
these relationships, Cairo has the potential to resolve the conflict by
convening both opposing factions in Cairo and creating regional support to
ensure a lasting peace.
The Cairo initiative received a positive response on social
media from both conflicting parties. Additionally, all seven neighboring
nations expressed their support for the initiative, which is considered as a
significant accomplishment for the leadership in Egypt. With its strong
political influence and regional power status, Cairo has the opportunity to
leverage its relationships to advance towards a durable and extended ceasefire.
The ultimate goal is to establish a comprehensive plan for political reform and
ensure transparent elections. Consequently, it is crucial for Egypt to
capitalize on the achievements of the Cairo summit and take further steps to
promote stability in the region, which is of great importance to the
country.
