Can United States use water related riots in Iran against Ebrahim Raisi?

Reportedly, more than 300 cities—nearly a fourth of all municipalities—face water shortages and drought. Protests erupted in southwestern Khuzestan province in mid-July and then spread to several other provinces.

It is being said that water shortage was due to governmental mismanagement and neglect. The riots that started from Khuzestan province have now spread across various cities including Tehran, Karaj and Tabriz.  

According to the western media, Iranian people are now putting a spotlight not only on their unmet needs, but also their unfulfilled aspirations for respect for human rights, rights to which individuals the world over are entitled.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) sent tens of water tankers to the Dasht-e Azadegan area of Khuzestan, Brigadier General Hassan Shahvarpour said. “Another group of tankers are on the way and will help to address the people's water problem. Basij (volunteer forces) and the IRGC, along with the provincial officials, are standing by people with all their power,” he added.

President-elect Ebrahim Raisi expressed concern about Khuzestan’s water crisis and pledged that his government would work to address the problem. “In order not to waste time until the formation of the new government, we convened this meeting to find operational solutions to solve the problems of the province and to implement everything possible from now,” he said in a special meeting on the issues of Khuzestan province. 

The US State Department condemned Iran’s crackdown on peaceful protests sparked by a water shortage. “We support the rights of Iranians to peacefully assemble and express themselves, without fear of violence and detention by security forces,” Spokesperson Ned Price said. Following are the excerpts from his narrative.

We condemn the use of violence against peaceful protestors.

We support the rights of Iranians to peacefully assemble and express themselves, without fear of violence and detention by security forces.  We are also monitoring reports of internet slowdowns in the region.

The Iranian people have a right to voice their frustrations and hold their government accountable, but we have seen disturbing reports that security forces fired on protesters, resulting in multiple deaths,

We urge the Iranian government to allow its citizens to exercise their right to freedom of expression and to freely access information, including via the Internet. 

State Department Deputy Spokesperson Jalina Porter said that the United States supports the rights of Iranians to voice their frustrations and hold their government accountable. She said Washington was closely following reports of internet shutdowns and use of deadly force by security forces.

“We urge the Iranian government to allow its citizens to exercise their universal rights of freedom of expression as well as freely access information online,” she told reporters.

Michelle Bachelet, the UN High Commissioner for human rights, called on Iran to address the water crisis and criticized the crackdown on protests. “The impact of the devastating water crisis on life, health and prosperity of the people of Khuzestan should be the focus of the Government’s attention, not the protests carried out by people driven to desperation by years of neglect,” she said.

“I am extremely concerned about the deaths and injuries that have occurred over the past week, as well as the widespread arrests and detention.” Bachelet also warned that “shooting and arresting people will simply add to the anger and desperation.”

Amnesty International reported that security forces had killed at least eight protesters and bystanders in seven different cities since 15th July 15.

Using live ammunition against unarmed protesters posing no imminent threat to life is a horrifying violation of the authorities’ obligation to protect human life.

Protesters in Iran who take to the streets to voice legitimate economic and political grievances face a barrage of gunfire, tear gas, and arrests,” said Diana Eltahawy, Deputy Director for the Middle East and North Africa.

 

 

Water scarcity making Middle Eat more vulnerable

The Middle East is one of the driest regions in the world. The scarcity of water has often been touted as a source of national and interstate disputes in the area. Some scholars have predicted for some time the possibility of deadly national altercations and regional clashes over the distribution of water resources in parts of the region.

Although no full-blown war has erupted so far, two current episodes illustrate this point: 1) public protests in the Iranian province of Khuzestan and the growing discord between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan over water dispensation from the River Nile. With climate change causing more droughts, the potential for conflict over water cannot be underestimated.

In recent days, the oil-rich southwestern province of Khuzestan, has experienced public protests over a shortage of water as the province and all of Iran have been hit by one of the worst droughts in modern times. 

The protests have rapidly spread into other parts of Iran, which has come on top of the damage wrought by Covid-19 and US sanctions. The security forces’ The treatment of the protesters by security forces has resulted in several deaths, with many injured and scores arrested.

The protests, at which ‘death to the Supreme Leader’, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been loudly chanted. Khamenei has now called on the security forces to be more understanding of the protestors and the outgoing moderate and reformist President Hassan Rouhani has joined him in that message.

The task will soon fall on president-elect Ebrahim Raisi, when he assumes office in early August. Since Raisi shares Khamenei’s conservative Islamic platform, he can use his position to be innovative.

While Iran is unlikely to go to war over water with any of its neighbors, the same cannot be firmly said about some of those downstream on the River Nile —the second longest, if not the longest, river in the world, yet with a relatively small reservoir capacity.

Ethiopia has been getting closer to a serious dispute with Egypt and Sudan ever since Addis Ababa decided in 2011 to build what it calls the hydroelectric Grand Renaissance Dam for securing more water for developmental purposes.

Egypt, which regards the Nile River as its ‘lifeline’, and Sudan, which has concerns about the security of its own supply, has seriously objected to Addis Ababa’s unilateral start of the second phase of the dam project.

The filling of the reservoir of the second phase over a period of two years will affect the amount of water to which Egypt claims to be entitled.

Under a bilateral Egypt–Sudan agreement in 1959, the two sides agreed to increase Egypt’s share to 55.5 billion cubic meters and Sudan’s to 18.5 billion. But the agreement isn’t recognized by Ethiopia. It has refused to budge on its determination to go ahead with the second phase, irrespective of serious objections by Cairo and Khartoum.

US mediation in 2020 and ongoing similar action by the African Union have failed to produce any result. In early July 2021, the issue was put to the United Nations Security Council to consider one submission by Ethiopia and another by Egypt and Sudan for a resolution. But a conclusion couldn’t be reached.

One of the council’s permanent members claimed that the body didn’t have sufficient expertise to deal with the issue. The council as a whole urged the three parties to avoid unilateral action and reach a negotiated settlement. In a recent article, former Egyptian foreign minister and ambassador to the US Nabil Fahmy warned that ‘sooner or later confrontation seems inevitable, unless we see a sudden and unexpected change in Ethiopia’s position’.

Fahmy has echoed a view that a number of scholars have held about the future possibility of war in the Middle East over water rather than oil.

Miriam Lowi’s 1995 book, Water and power, is very telling. The Khuzestan and Ethiopian dam episodes raise another issue that adds to volatility in the Middle East while the tragedy of climate change remains unaddressed.