Crisis in Belarus and role being played by Russia, European Union and United States

After the presidential election in Belarus on August 9, 2020, mass demonstrations broke out spontaneously throughout the country. Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets protesting against widespread election fraud. 

These protests soon met with sustained, brutal suppression. The masses were eventually driven from the streets, yet the resistance against the Belarusian dictatorship persists to this day.

It is clear that Alyaksandr Lukashenka lost the popular legitimacy he had enjoyed for many, if not most, of the last 26 years. Why did this Belarusian revolution fail to succeed? The responses of Russia, the European Union, and the United States to the 2020–21 protest movement had a decisive impact on the pro-democracy uprising in Belarus and will continue to be crucial for how the situation in Belarus unfolds in the future.

The 2020–21 Belarusian protest movement to date can be divided into three main phases: violent repressions; temporary cease-fire; and regime retaliation. The next phase of the Belarusian crisis will be one of power transition. This transition will likely happen after the constitutional referendum scheduled for February 27, 2022. The current draft of the new Belarusian constitution proposes several crucial changes for the political system in Belarus.

First, the amendments aim to weaken the powers of the Belarusian parliament and to strengthen the role of the All-Belarusian People's Assembly (ABPA). This body which under the present constitution does not have governing status would be endowed with wide-ranging powers and would consist of 1,200 delegates loyal to the regime. The ABPA would have the power to approve Belarus’s foreign and security policy, propose changes to the constitution, draft laws, select judges of the top courts, and have other functions. The acting president would automatically become a member of the ABPA and potentially serve as its chair, if elected by the other delegates. By strengthening the powers of the ABPA, Lukashenka is trying to create an alternative center of power which would allow him to stay in the Belarusian political arena even if he decides to step down as a president.

Second, the constitutional amendments envisage the president’s immunity from prosecution and prohibit anyone who temporarily left the country in the last 20 years from running for presidency. This provision directly targets members of Belarusian political opposition who were forced to live into exile to avoid repressions. This amendment deprives the Belarusian opposition of the opportunity to challenge the ruling regime directly inside Belarus, and provides additional guarantees for the safety of Lukashenka and his entourage. 

Finally, the new constitutional provisions also grant the president immunity from prosecution and introduce a limit of two five-year presidential terms in office. However, since these restrictions would only apply going forward, Lukashenka could potentially stay in power until 2035.

Lukashenka has not yet declared whether he will step down after the referendum. The current political instability in the region, including the January protests in Kazakhstan and the escalating tensions between Russian and Ukraine, increase the chances that Lukashenka will stay in power after the referendum.

In either case, the West will not cease pressure on the Belarusian regime and will continue to support those fighting for democratic reforms there. For its part, Russia will continue to use the vulnerability of Lukashenka and his close entourage to increase its political, economic, and military presence in Belarus.

Russia, the EU and the US have all played an important role in the evolution of the 2020–21 Belarusian post-electoral crises. The Belarusian mass protests failed to succeed in August 2020, thanks both to Russia’s significant support of the Lukashenka regime and a lack of quick and comprehensive response from the EU and the US.

However, the Ryanair incident in May 2021 catalyzed increased Western action against the Lukashenka regime. It resulted in greater coordination between the EU and the US and led to the passage of several packages of targeted sanctions. Hard sanctions are likely to continue to serve as the baseline policy towards the Lukashenka regime in the near future for the EU and the US, while Russia will likely continue exerting its influence in pursuit of greater political, economic, and military integration with Belarus.  Lukashenka’s regime has a potential to maintain political control in the country in the short-term perspective. However, in the long run it will have to face the irreversible transformations happening in the Belarusian society and step on a path of political transition.

Can United States use water related riots in Iran against Ebrahim Raisi?

Reportedly, more than 300 cities—nearly a fourth of all municipalities—face water shortages and drought. Protests erupted in southwestern Khuzestan province in mid-July and then spread to several other provinces.

It is being said that water shortage was due to governmental mismanagement and neglect. The riots that started from Khuzestan province have now spread across various cities including Tehran, Karaj and Tabriz.  

According to the western media, Iranian people are now putting a spotlight not only on their unmet needs, but also their unfulfilled aspirations for respect for human rights, rights to which individuals the world over are entitled.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) sent tens of water tankers to the Dasht-e Azadegan area of Khuzestan, Brigadier General Hassan Shahvarpour said. “Another group of tankers are on the way and will help to address the people's water problem. Basij (volunteer forces) and the IRGC, along with the provincial officials, are standing by people with all their power,” he added.

President-elect Ebrahim Raisi expressed concern about Khuzestan’s water crisis and pledged that his government would work to address the problem. “In order not to waste time until the formation of the new government, we convened this meeting to find operational solutions to solve the problems of the province and to implement everything possible from now,” he said in a special meeting on the issues of Khuzestan province. 

The US State Department condemned Iran’s crackdown on peaceful protests sparked by a water shortage. “We support the rights of Iranians to peacefully assemble and express themselves, without fear of violence and detention by security forces,” Spokesperson Ned Price said. Following are the excerpts from his narrative.

We condemn the use of violence against peaceful protestors.

We support the rights of Iranians to peacefully assemble and express themselves, without fear of violence and detention by security forces.  We are also monitoring reports of internet slowdowns in the region.

The Iranian people have a right to voice their frustrations and hold their government accountable, but we have seen disturbing reports that security forces fired on protesters, resulting in multiple deaths,

We urge the Iranian government to allow its citizens to exercise their right to freedom of expression and to freely access information, including via the Internet. 

State Department Deputy Spokesperson Jalina Porter said that the United States supports the rights of Iranians to voice their frustrations and hold their government accountable. She said Washington was closely following reports of internet shutdowns and use of deadly force by security forces.

“We urge the Iranian government to allow its citizens to exercise their universal rights of freedom of expression as well as freely access information online,” she told reporters.

Michelle Bachelet, the UN High Commissioner for human rights, called on Iran to address the water crisis and criticized the crackdown on protests. “The impact of the devastating water crisis on life, health and prosperity of the people of Khuzestan should be the focus of the Government’s attention, not the protests carried out by people driven to desperation by years of neglect,” she said.

“I am extremely concerned about the deaths and injuries that have occurred over the past week, as well as the widespread arrests and detention.” Bachelet also warned that “shooting and arresting people will simply add to the anger and desperation.”

Amnesty International reported that security forces had killed at least eight protesters and bystanders in seven different cities since 15th July 15.

Using live ammunition against unarmed protesters posing no imminent threat to life is a horrifying violation of the authorities’ obligation to protect human life.

Protesters in Iran who take to the streets to voice legitimate economic and political grievances face a barrage of gunfire, tear gas, and arrests,” said Diana Eltahawy, Deputy Director for the Middle East and North Africa.