Israeli intelligence sources, speaking on condition of
anonymity due to security concerns, told Euronews that Mossad agents had
identified key strategic factors and political conditions enabling them to
prepare for and initiate the attack on Iran. Among these, they cited the
intensification of the proxy war, the election of US President Donald Trump,
and the momentum of nuclear negotiations with Western powers.
On June 13, Israel launched multiple land and air strikes on
Iran, killing senior Iranian military leaders, nuclear scientists and
politicians, and damaging or destroying Iranian air defences and nuclear
military facilities.
Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Israeli
cities and military sites, aided by Houthis in Yemen.
The US defended Israel
from these attacks and, on the ninth day, bombed three Iranian nuclear sites.
Iran then struck a US base in Qatar. On June 24, under US pressure, Israel and
Iran agreed to a ceasefire.
Both sides claimed victory following the ceasefire. Israel
and the US asserted that they significantly degraded Iran’s missile and nuclear
programs, while Iranian authorities denied these claims. Independent
assessments are currently limited due to the secrecy surrounding Iran’s nuclear
program.
Israel and the US said that the attack had been in the
planning for many years, in parallel with diplomatic engagement with Iran.
“Israel has never hidden the fact that it wants to destroy
the Iranian nuclear program, and it has never hidden the fact it was also
willing to allow it to be resolved diplomatically, as long as the diplomatic
solution prevents Iran not only from enriching uranium, but from ever getting
the capacity to pose an existential threat to the state of Israel,” a first
Israeli intelligence source told Euronews.
Diplomatic engagements were not bringing any tangible
results, the sources said, while tensions between the US and Iran grew
following Donald Trump's first presidency in the US from 2016-2020.
In 2018, Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 Iran nuclear
deal (JCPOA), which had limited Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for
sanctions relief. Following the US re-imposition of sanctions, Iran began
ignoring the deal’s nuclear restrictions in 2019.
“I think the pivotal moment was in April 2024, when Iran
launched missiles directly from its own territory at Israel. Until then, Iran
had primarily relied on proxies to attack Israel, while Israel carried out
covert operations inside Iran with plausible deniability, aiming to prevent
escalation into full-scale war,” the first intelligence source said.
In April 2024, Iran launched missiles at Israel in
retaliation for an Israeli strike on its consulate in Syria that killed
Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi. He was the highest-ranking Iranian
military official killed since the Iranian General Qassem Suleimani’s
assassination in 2020 by the US Trump administration. Suleimani was the
‘architect’ of Iran’s proxy war in the Middle East.
“I think Israel had to wait from April 2024. It needed time
to gather all the intelligence and planning it needed in order to feel
confident that, already in the first two or three days of the war, we would be
in a position where we had complete control over the situation, minimal
casualties at home, and complete control of Iranian airspace, with the ability
to attack whenever and wherever we want to,” the source added.
Donald Trump's second election as US president was another
key pivotal moment and was welcomed by all the four sources.
“The
original plan was to attack in October 2024. That was after the second direct
missile attack by Iran on Israel following Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah’s
leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon in September,” the first intelligence
sources said, but the attack was delayed to wait for the US elections in
November.
“I think it was very important for Israel that Trump should
win those elections. Once Trump was elected, he put the main emphasis on
reaching a hostage deal,” said the second source, referring to the Hamas-Israel
conflict.
“Once the hostage deal was signed around March 2025, Israel
was again in a position to attack Iran. But the US and Iran entered into
negotiations, to try bringing a peaceful solution to the issue of Iran's
enrichment and nuclear program,” the first source added.
In March, the US and Iran began indirect negotiations on the
Iranian nuclear program. The negotiations did not bring an agreement, although
counterparts described them as “constructive”.
“Trump gave 60 days to those negotiations. The day after,
Israel attacked Iran. I think that obviously was coordinated with the US
administration,” all the current and former Israeli intelligence sources told
Euronews.
Washington
has never publicly stated that Israel’s first attack on Iran was coordinated.
However, following the US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, Defense
Secretary Pete Hegseth said at a press conference on June 23 that the operation
had been planned for many years.
“When we attacked, we were at the end of the 60-day period
of negotiations. I think it was very clear to Trump at this stage that the
Iranians were not willing to forego enrichment on Iranian soil, even though the
negotiations did bring up some interesting solutions to that. For example, some
sort of international enrichment agency that would allocate enriched uranium at
civilian levels to all countries in the region interested in it,” the first
intelligence source said.
“Trump realized Iran was engaging in negotiations merely to
buy time, with no real intent to reach a resolution. The talks served as a
decoy, giving Iran the impression it wouldn’t be attacked, especially amid
widespread press reports that Israel was on the verge of striking,” the first
source added.
While Iran claimed victory and celebrated its resilience
towards Israel's invasion, Israeli intelligence sources said that Tehran’s
regime has been left weakened following the attack.
“Israel has emerged from several conflicts in a stronger
strategic position in the region, but in a more difficult political position
with its Western partners, except perhaps Washington. We’re at a very delicate
moment in which both Israel and Iran have little to gain by pushing further
right now,” Ian Lesser, fellow and adviser to the German Marshall Fund’s
president, told Euronews.
“Iran
has fewer options now. One option is to return to negotiations. Another is to
turn to its traditional methods of responding, which rely on proxies and
non-traditional actions, including terrorism. There is also the possibility
that, if Iran maintains some ability to develop nuclear weapons, it may see
this as another path. But I don’t think anyone will let them do that. There may
be disagreements about Israeli strategy and policy, but overall, Israel and its
Western partners are not willing to tolerate a nuclearized Iran,” the expert
added.
If the war had gone further, Israel would have probably
attacked gas and oil installations, a fourth former Israeli intelligence source
told Euronews. However, after the ceasefire, negotiations have resumed at
diplomatic level.
On July 25, diplomats from Iran met counterparts from
Germany, the UK, and France in Istanbul for talks, the first since Israel’s
mid-June attack on Iran, amid warnings that these European countries might
trigger a “snapback” of UN sanctions on Tehran.
The second intelligence source said that following the
conflict, Israel would maintain control over Iranian airspace, in order to
“destroy anything that even suggests that the Iranians are preparing to rebuild
any of the capabilities that we have destroyed”. — Euronews
