Showing posts with label petro dollar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label petro dollar. Show all posts

Monday 10 April 2023

Is a New Gold Standard Possible?

The price of gold is once again testing its all-time highs as both individuals and institutions flee the chaos of our times toward safety. What John Maynard Keynes decried as the barbarous relic just keeps coming back. The worse government policies become and the more deranged and dysfunctional the Federal Reserve is revealed to be, the more people are turning to time-tested monetary truth.

In a sense, the price of gold can often work as a barometer of confidence in the central managers. The higher it goes, the less trust in the system there truly is. For a century, the elites have wanted gold to disappear from the subject of money. But it keeps not happening.

Like clockwork, there’s renewed interest even in the old gold standard.

“Rep. Alex Mooney —joined by Reps. Andy Biggs and Paul Gosar —introduced the Gold Standard Restoration Act, to facilitate the repegging of the volatile Federal Reserve note to a fixed weight of gold bullion. Upon passage, the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve are given 24 months to publicly disclose all gold holdings and gold transactions, after which time the Federal Reserve note dollar would be formally repegged to a fixed weight of gold at its then-market price.”

The timing is more brilliant than it appears. The dollar as the international reserve currency—which it has been since 1944—is newly under threat. China, Russia, India, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil, with other nations joining, have all agreed to work toward independence from the dollar.

The Biden administration has so heavily politicized its use as a reserve currency, even going so far as outright confiscation of assets owned by Russians. US policy is using the dollar as a weapon, and it should come as no surprise that many nations don’t like that.

There’s the additional and very real threat, too, of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) in which the Biden administration has shown great interest. This would permit a massive invasion by the government and its monetary oligarchs into our private lives and permit new levels of population control that will make the Bill of Rights a dead letter.

If there were ever a time to push for a new gold standard, it’s now, although it should have happened 43 years ago, when the Reagan administration had the chance to do so. This might have been the key to preserving newly restored American freedoms rather than allowing the central bank to preside over the wreckage of this country.

The presidential campaign of 1980 was a turning point for the United States, away from the economic malaise of a highly regulated industrial sector with a dollar rapidly declining in value and toward deregulation and sounder money. Looking back, the dramatic policy turn of the Reagan presidency prepared the groundwork for decades of prosperity. It built a capital base so strong that it seemed nothing could wreck it.

An unfulfilled part of the 1980 Republican Party platform—pushed by David Stockman and George Gilder—was an endorsement of a gold standard; that is, the dollar redefined in terms of gold instead of the floating paper nothing it had been since the catastrophic reforms made by Richard Nixon that unleashed a decade of inflation.

That part of the 1980 platform was neglected. As a result of the Nixon reform and the failure to reverse that disaster, the dollar of Aug. 13, 1971, is now worth about 13 cents.

With a gold standard in place and the end of the Cold War only eight years away, the United States was perfectly positioned to reestablish itself as the peaceful commercial Republic that it was founded to be rather than the entrenched global empire it became after 1990.

With the seemingly existential threat of Soviet communism out of the way, the United States could have chosen George Washington’s path as he stated in his farewell address, “The great rule of conduct for us, in regard to foreign nations is, in extending our commercial relations, to have with them as little political connection as possible. So far as we have already formed engagements, let them be fulfilled with perfect good faith. Here let us stop.”

Instead of that path, the United States under the first George Bush immediately set out on another imperial crusade for democracy and nation-building. No longer restrained by Cold War calculations and mutually assured destruction, the United States was the winner in the struggle, throwing away its chance for peace and prosperity with wars in Haiti, Panama, and Iraq, stirring up hatreds in faraway lands that, a decade later, came home in horrifying acts of terrorism on our own soil. A whole region of the world now lies in ruins, and Europe is destabilized with war refugees.

Why did the United States take this course when it so obviously could have been otherwise? The short answer is that it could. And the reason it could is that the Federal Reserve’s paper money regime would pay the bills. Paper money has been the handmaiden of war and empire since the ancient world, and the worst example is the 20th century itself.

It’s highly doubtful that there ever would have been a thing called a “world war”—grotesquely called the Great War at the time—had both Europe and the United States not adopted central banks. The monetary math wouldn’t have made it possible. They would have chosen diplomacy over war.

The astute economist Benjamin Anderson proved it in his postwar treatise on the subject. It’s true that most currencies in the world back then were backed by gold, but the critical service the central banks provided was to become a buyer of last resort of government debt. This became a grave moral hazard back then, just as it is today.

But let’s return to 1980. Instead of a gold standard, we got better and wiser money management by the Federal Reserve under Paul Volcker, who wrenched the paper excess out of the system and set the dollar up for decades of relatively low inflation. He did nothing, however, to put an end to policy discretion.

Instead of following through on the gold standard, Reagan appointed a commission to study the issue. We know what that means! Of course, the commission was packed with paper-money fans with the gold-standard partisans in the minority. The minority report of that commission remains a genuine classic of monetary analysis. The lead author was none other than Ron Paul, who has been fighting for sound money throughout his entire career.

The case for a gold standard is bound up with the case for a limited government that follows the Constitution and protects the rights of the people. That’s precisely the problem that people have with the idea. It would put a hard stop on Federal Reserve monetary discretion. It would also require that the whole of the federal government balance its budget the same way that states have to today. Lacking a central bank with the power to print unto infinity, vast numbers of the debates we have today about federal policy, domestic and foreign, would melt away.

The great flaw in the gold standard, however, isn’t its logic or virtue but its political and managerial probability. The agenda has always required that the managers of the system as it exists also come around to the view that they should have less power and less discretion. It depends fundamentally on the existing monetary oligarchs choosing a path that’s good for society rather than themselves. That, sadly, seems quite unlikely.

A path even wiser than a centralized gold standard would be the complete denationalization of money itself. This could happen with a repeal of legal tender laws and a wholesale liberalization of both gold as money and digital money that works like gold, such as Bitcoin and its many decentralized cousins. We have the technology to make this happen. What’s missing is the political will.

As in 1980, we’re at another turning point. With the dollar as the international reserve currency facing its biggest challenge since World War II and the domestic value of paper money losing its reliability by the day, we do need dramatic reform. At this stage, we face a choice between more tyranny enabled by the nightmare of a CBDC and monetary deregulation that would allow markets and people to choose their own preferred means of exchange.

Courtesy: The Epoch Times

Russia and Iran conspiring to weaken US dollar, alleges Israel

Russian Presidential Aide Igor Levitin, who is currently on a two-day trip in Tehran, met with the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Council Ali Shamkani, and the two discussed ways to thwart Western sanctions.

During the meeting, Shamkhani expressed his satisfaction with the volume of economic cooperation between Russia and Iran, praising the path that started to reduce the influence of the dollar in regional and international economic exchanges.

These plans, he said, "will limit the dominance of the West over the world economy to the minimum."

The representatives also discussed the ongoing joint project, the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC), which Shamkhani described as having a decisive role in changing the geometry of goods transit in the region.

The NSTC is a transport network for moving freights between Iran, Russia, Azerbaijan and other countries in Asia and Europe.

The transport corridor aims at creating new networks to avoid the US and the West as sanctions grow on Iran.

Levitin, for his part, expressed Moscow's readiness to invest in Iran's steel, oil and petrochemical industries.

Despite Russian efforts to weaken the US dollar, the currency has continued to gain this week, while the Russian rouble is having the worst week of the year so far.

The Russian rouble suffered its worst week against the dollar this year, tumbling on a lack of foreign currency in Moscow and on the sale of Western businesses in Russia, despite gaining slightly on Friday afternoon as traders locked in profits.

The rouble RUBUTSTN=MCX skidded more than 2% against the US dollar on Friday to an intraday low of 83.50, its weakest since April last year, and fell more than 2% against the euro to an intraday low of 91.32 against EURRUBTN=MCX.

The rouble had nosedived to 113 per US dollar after President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but the central bank and finance ministry helped stabilize the currency, and it strengthened to 50 per dollar in July 2022.

The West then imposed a price cap on Russian oil - the lifeblood of the Russian economy - late last year, since which the rouble has weakened from about 60 per US dollar to more than 80 US dollar this week.

Traders said the Russian currency has come under pressure recently from a cocktail of problems including the sale of Western assets to domestic investors, which stoked demand for dollars, while lower oil prices in March cut the country's export revenue.

The rouble is the third-worst performer among global currencies so far this year, behind only the Egyptian pound and the Argentine peso, Reuters calculations show.

"The Russian currency remains in fundamentally weak conditions," said Vladimir Evstifeev, head of analysis at Bank Zenik. He said exporters were reluctant to swap their export revenues for roubles in the expectation that the dollar would strengthen while importers were buying foreign currency in the expectation of a bounce back in consumer confidence.

"The rate of weakening of the Russian currency is increasing, so it is likely that the authorities will get involved in the situation on the foreign exchange market and conduct a series of verbal interventions in support of the rouble."

Monday 3 April 2023

Why is OPEC Plus cutting oil output?

OPEC and its allies, including Russia, agreed on Sunday to widen crude oil production cuts to 3.66 million barrels per day (bpd) or 3.7% of global demand. The surprise announcement helped push up prices by US$5 per barrel to above US$85 per barrel.

Here are the main reasons why OPEC Plus is cutting output:

Saudi Arabia has said voluntary output cuts of 1.66 million bpd on top of the existing 2 million bpd cuts were made as a precautionary measure aimed at supporting market stability.

Russian deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said the Western banking crisis was one of the reasons behind the cut as well as interference with market dynamics, a Russian expression to describe a Western price cap on Russian oil.

Fears of a fresh banking crisis over the past month have led investors to sell out of risk assets such as commodities with oil prices falling to near US$70 per barrel from near an all-time high of US$139 in March 2022.

A global recession could lead to lower oil prices. Redburn research said the size of the latest cut was probably overdone unless OPEC feared a major global recession.

The cut will also punish oil short sellers or those who bet on oil price declines.

Back in 2020, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman warned traders against betting heavily in the oil market, saying he would try to make the market jumpy and promising that those who gamble on the oil price would be ouching like hell.

Prior to the latest cut, hedge funds had reduced their net position in US benchmark WTI oil to just 56 million barrels by March 21, the lowest since February 2016.

Their bullish long positions outnumbered bearish short ones by a ratio of just 1.39:1, the lowest since August 2016.

"The latest cut would hurt those who bet against oil really badly," said a source familiar with OPEC+ thinking.

Many analysts said OPEC Plus was keen to put a floor under oil prices at US$80 per barrel while UBS and Rystad predicted a jump back to US$100.

However, excessively high oil prices represent a risk for OPEC Plus as they speed up inflation, including for goods the group needs to purchase.

They also encourage speedier production gains from non-OPEC members and investments in alternative sources of energy.

Goldman Sachs said OPEC's power has increased in recent years as US shale responses to higher prices have become slower and smaller, in part because of pressure on investors to stop funding fossil fuel projects.

Washington has called the latest move by OPEC Plus inadvisable.

The West has repeatedly criticized OPEC for manipulating prices and siding with Russia despite the war in Ukraine.

The United States is considering passing legislation known as NOPEC, which would allow the seizure of OPEC's assets on US territory in the event market collusion is proved.

OPEC Plus has criticized the International Energy Agency, the West's energy watchdog in which the United States is the biggest financial donor, for releasing oil stocks last year, a move it said was necessary to bring down prices amid fears sanctions would disrupt Russian supply.

The IEA's prediction never materialized though, prompting OPEC Plus sources to say it was politically driven and designed to help boost US President Joe Biden's ratings.

The United States, which released most stocks, said it would buy back some oil in 2023 but later ruled it out.

JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs said the US decision not to buy back oil for reserves might have contributed to the move to cut output.