Biden administration sees Quad as fundamental foundation to build US policy on Indo-Pacific

The new Biden administration sees the Quad grouping comprising of the United States, India, Japan and Australia as a fundamental foundation upon which to build a substantial American policy in the strategically-vital Indo-Pacific region. National security advisor Jake Sullivan said at an event organized by the US Institute of Peace, a Congress-funded think-tank that the US will build on and carry forward the four-nation Quad grouping.

Quad and the Indo-Pacific policy of the Trump administration are one of the few policies that the Biden administration has said it will continue to build on, besides the Abraham Accords, Sullivan said.

“Those are in two different theaters in the world and two initiatives that you will see continuity and an effort to reinforce and carry forward steps that have been taken by the previous administration,” he said.

"When the first Accords with the UAE, Bahrain were announced, it was in the heat of a political campaign, a presidential campaign, and then candidate Biden made no bones about coming out saying: ‘I think this is a good thing. I think this is a positive thing',” he said.

Biden said consistently over the course of the last several months that he would like to carry forward this initiative, deepen the cooperation between the countries that have signed the accords, make real normalization that has taken root and add more countries, he said.

“He (Biden) sees that as being positive for security in the region, positive for economic development, in the region, and positive for America's national interest for many of the reasons that Robert laid out,” Sullivan said.

“So, one of the things that we will be doing in the coming weeks and months is thinking about how we make sure that the seeds that have now been planted actually grow into the full kind of cooperation across multiple dimensions and these relationships can move forward and how that can really help the United States advance our interests,” he said.

In November 2017, India, Japan, the United States and Australia gave shape to the long-pending proposal of setting up the "Quad" to develop a new strategy to counter China's aggressive behaviour in the strategically-vital Indo-Pacific region.

The evolving situation in the Indo-Pacific region in the wake of China's increasing military muscle flexing has become a major talking point among leading global powers. The US has been favouring making Quad a security architecture to check China's growing assertiveness.

China is engaged in hotly contested territorial disputes in the South and East China Seas. Beijing has also made substantial progress in militarizing its man-made islands in the past few years.

Beijing claims sovereignty over all of the South China Sea. But Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei and Taiwan have counterclaims. In the East China Sea, China has territorial disputes with Japan.

The South China Sea and the East China Sea are stated to be rich in minerals, oil and other natural resources. These are also vital to global trade. Although, the US lays no claims to the disputed waters, it has challenged China's growing territorial claims in the South China Sea by deploying warships and fighter jets to assert freedom of navigation and over flight patrols in the strategically-vital region.

Iranian Foreign Minister meets Taliban delegation in Tehran

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif met on Sunday with a Taliban delegation led by deputy head of the group’s political bureau Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar. In the meeting, Zarif welcomed the idea of formation of an all-inclusive government with the participation of all ethnic and political groups in Afghanistan, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

“Political decisions could not be made in a vacuum, and the formation of an all-inclusive government must take place in a participatory process and by taking into account the fundamental structures, institutions and laws, such as the Constitution,” the statement quoted Zarif as saying in the meeting.

The chief Iranian diplomat expressed Iran’s readiness to facilitate dialogue among the Taliban, the Afghan government and other Afghan groups, noting, “The noble people of Afghanistan have been wronged. The war and occupation of Afghanistan have dealt heavy blows to the Afghan people.”

He expressed hope that the Taliban would focus efforts on an immediate end to the pains and problems of Afghan people so that the establishment of peace in Afghanistan would strip the outsiders of a pretext for occupation.

According to a Tasnim report, Zarif also voiced support for an all-inclusive Islamic government in Afghanistan.

“We support the formation of an all-inclusive Islamic government with the participation of all ethnicities and sects and consider it necessary for Afghanistan,” Zarif was quoted by Tasnim as telling the Taliban delegation. He underlined the need for the Taliban to avoid targeting the people of Afghanistan.

Zarif also told the Taliban delegation that the United States is not a good mediator.

The Taliban delegation, for its part, gave a report of the Afghan peace process and the intra-Afghan negotiations.

“Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar also noted that the relations between Afghanistan and Iran are based upon friendship and good neighborliness, expressing hope for the expansion of relations between the two countries with the establishment of peace and calm in Afghanistan,” the statement noted.

India upset with efforts to improve relations between Islamabad and Dhaka

The recent move of Pakistan to lift visa restrictions for Bangladeshi citizens and Dhaka’s request that Islamabad issue an apology for mass killings during its 1971 war of independence have raised concerns in India. 

Indians believe that any improvement in relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh will have implications for the complex geopolitical dynamics in South Asia, where India sees Bangladesh as an ally but Pakistan as a foe.

New Delhi also seeks to counter China’s growing influence in the region, which it deems its traditional area of influence.

India is propagating that China is behind Pakistan’s initiative to improve ties with Bangladesh. India also alleges that China wants Pakistan to activate its assets in Bangladesh.

India insists that China wants to develop its own support base among countries in India’s neighbourhood and use them against New Delhi, as part of its ‘string of pearls’ strategy.

For Bangladeshis, the long-sought apology from Pakistan for the 1971 genocide is a sensitive issue, and one necessary for relations to move forward. The liberation move which lasted nine months had led to a war between India and Pakistan.

Bangladesh has been demanding an apology from Pakistan. For the first time the request was conveyed formally, when Pakistan’s High Commissioner in Dhaka, Imran Ahmed Siddiqui, visited Bangladesh’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Shahriar Alam, for talks on strengthening economic cooperation. To Indian observers, the meeting between Alam and Siddiqui suggested a warming of ties between Pakistan and Bangladesh.

At one stage the relations between Bangladesh and Pakistan were strained to the extent that both sides expelled each other’s diplomats, imposed visa bans on each other’s nationals. Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina did not approve appointment of Pakistani High Commissioner to Dhaka for 20 months.

She accepted the appointment and in July 2020 and spoke to her counterpart, Prime Minister Imran Khan. In the diplomatic circle Hasina’s move was termed a positive development.

Bangladesh celebrates its 50th year of independence on March 26 and also the birth centenary of the country’s founding father, Mujibur Rahman, who is Hasina’s father. Analysts say that if Hasina succeeds in getting Pakistan’s apology it will be a prized feather in her cap.

Indian experts say Pakistan’s ability to tender an apology depended on Khan receiving support from the army and an Islamic group, both of which were implicated in atrocities during Bangladesh’s struggle of independence.

Indian instance is based on the role China had played in early seventies encouraging Bangladesh’s first government under Mujibur Rahman to come to terms with Islamabad. They also say Beijing had persuaded Rahman to drop his pursuit of alleged Pakistani war criminals in exchange for a seat at the United Nations, which Beijing had blocked unless Rahman acceded to its demands.

Meanwhile, India has tried to solidify its ties with Bangladesh, including by sending its top Foreign Service bureaucrat, Harsh Shringla, to Dhaka in August last year to assure Hasina of Delhi’s continued support after relations had been strained over the issue of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh into India and the alleged persecution of Hindus in Bangladesh.

Saudi surprise production cut a wonderful gift to US oil producers

According to some analysts, oil prices have risen by 10% since the end of 2020 and 8% since the OPEC+ meeting two weeks ago, but the rally has nothing to do with the short-term oil demand outlook. It has been almost exclusively due to the decision of Saudi Arabia—the world’s top oil exporter and OPEC’s de facto leader—to cut an additional one million barrels per day (bpd) from its production in the first quarter.

Saudi Arabia, as well as major forecasters, expected oil demand in Q1 to continue to struggle as major economies in Europe and some parts of China are under renewed lockdowns to fight the spread of COVID-19.   

The Kingdom’s “wonderful surprise” to the oil industry, as its Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman described the extra cut in a Bloomberg interview, lent support to oil prices while the outlook for Q1 demand continues to deteriorate, due to the spreading virus, strict lockdowns, and a slow start to vaccination programs.    

The Saudi ‘generosity’ signals that the Kingdom is willing to forgo short-term market share in order to prop up prices amid weak immediate demand, tighten the market faster, and wait for the opportunity to ramp up production once oil demand rebounds at some point in the second half of 2021.

Yet, in the process, the Saudis would incentivize increased activity in the US shale patch, which could abandon the promised restraint in spending, and increase production. Higher than currently estimated US oil supply could cap oil price gains and ruin the Saudi attempts to tighten the market.

The Saudi cut also signals growing divergence in oil price fixing policies between the two leaders of the OPEC+ pact, Saudi Arabia and Russia. Saudi Arabia looks more eager to see higher oil prices, even at the expense of losing more market share to US shale. Russia, which had pushed for another 500,000-bpd collective production increase from OPEC+ in February, has been wary for years that by cutting its own production and helping to support prices, it is actually boosting US oil output.  

International Energy Agency (IEA) has yet again cut its outlook on global oil demand for 2021, including revising down its Q1 demand projection by 600,000 bpd. Therefore, it seems Saudi Arabia has made the right call when it announced the extra one million bpd cut to its production for February and March. In terms of achieving higher oil prices and a tighter market going into the second half of 2021, the Saudi move looks right.

According to the IEA’s monthly report from this week, the OPEC+ group’s “more proactive production restraint looks set to hasten a drawdown in the global stock surplus.”

“Assuming OPEC+ achieves 100% compliance with the latest agreement, global oil stocks could draw by 1.1 mb/d, or 100 mb, in 1Q21, with the potential for much steeper declines during the second half of the year as demand strengthens,” the agency said.

But while Saudi Arabia’s energy minister says, “We are the guardian of this industry,” the Kingdom is (maybe inadvertently) helping US shale by ‘guarding’ the price of oil from collapsing when demand is weak, as it is this quarter.

Analysts, including OPEC and the IEA, say that the higher oil prices—thanks to Saudi Arabia—could provide a reason to the US shale patch to boost drilling activity more than anticipated earlier.

The “wonderful” Saudi gift to support the oil market could hinge on US oil producers resisting the temptation to increase production after WTI Crude prices hit this month US$50 a barrel mark for the first time since February 2020.  

US firms “seem committed to pledges made to keep production flat and instead use any price gain to pay down debt or to boost investor returns. If they stick to those plans, OPEC+ may start to reclaim the market share it has steadily lost to the US and others since 2016,” the IEA said in its latest Oil Market Report.

Oil above $50 is set to create a chain reaction in the US shale patch, which could see cash from operations (CFO) rise by 32% this year. Shale producers in the Permian Midland, Permian Delaware, Eagle Ford, Bakken, and DJ basins could see their combined CFO increase to US$73.6 billion in 2021, up from an estimated US$55.7 billion in 2020, but still down from US$87 billion in 2019. Nevertheless, WTI Crude averaging above US$50 and the higher cash flow in the shale industry would allow producers to increase their activity spending.

The higher activity in the shale patch will be necessary just to keep US production flat, but above US$50 oil price could be tempting. Analysts expect a cautious ramp-up of activity, with shale oil production continuing to decline into the second half of 2021. Despite all the compelling arguments for restraint, the industry’s history suggests that increased cash flows generally get turned very quickly into new wells. 

 

Beijing decides not to recognize British National (Overseas) passport as travel document

In a surprise move, Beijing has declared it will stop recognizing British National (Overseas) passports as travel and identification documents from Sunday and warned of further actions in retaliation against Britain’s offer of a pathway to citizenship to 5.4 million eligible Hongkongers.

The announcement was made by Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian at a daily press briefing. The move came hours after British authorities announced details of the application process for the new BN(O) visas. The rule will become effective on Sunday 5.00pm.

 “Britain has ignored the fact that Hong Kong has already been returned to China for 24 years,” Zhao said. He accused London of ignoring Beijing’s “stern stance” against the new BN(O) policy, adding it would turn Hongkongers into “second-class citizens”.

Zhao said the BN(O) scheme was no longer one that had been agreed upon by both sides.

“[The new visa] is a serious violation of China’s sovereignty and a violent intervention of Hong Kong’s affairs and China’s internal affairs. It is a serious violation of the international laws and the basic principles of international relations,” he said.

The new British National (Overseas) visa will allow successful family applicants to stagger their arrivals so one parent can remain in Hong Kong to continue earning an income while the other goes over with their dependants. Such details of the much-anticipated scheme emerged as the British Home Office announced on Friday morning that applications would open online at 5pm on Sunday.

Britain decided to introduce the new visa July 2020 response to Beijing’s imposition of a sweeping national security law on Hong Kong. Some 5.4 million people in its former colony are eligible for British citizenship after five years of living there using the special visa.

Israel wish list for a new Iran Nuclear Deal

Ensuring US President Joe Biden administration works to fully and effectively prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon is the first priority for Israel. If the Biden administration enters into talks with Iran, Israel wishes to ensure the weak points of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers are left out of the new deal.

Those include removing the sunset clauses, which gradually removed sanctions and limitations on uranium enrichment, such that Iran would have been able to develop a nuclear weapon in 2030 under the terms of the JCPOA.

Another Israeli priority is “anywhere, anytime inspections” of Iran nuclear sites, as opposed to Tehran being forewarned as the deal currently requires.

Those are far more important to Israel than something members of the Biden administration and some Israeli media reports have suggested: to add clauses to the JCPOA to stop Iran’s ballistic missile program and malign activities in the region. Israel believes Iran must not have a right to enrich uranium under whatever future framework is reached.

Israel is preparing a plan to counter Biden administration’s intention to negotiate a return to the Iran deal. As reported in The Jerusalem Post earlier, the security cabinet has not met to discuss the matter, but the senior government source said a smaller forum of top ministers will likely determine overall strategy.

In recent weeks, Biden administration officials have said talk of rejoining the JCPOA is premature, and that they plan to speak with allies in the region, Israel among them, before negotiating with Iran. Israel is reassured by those remarks, and that Israel is not looking for a fight with Biden. Rather, Israeli officials prefer that there be conversations behind closed doors between top officials.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to seek an in-person meeting with Biden in the coming months. Such a meeting between the Israeli prime minister and the new US president is customary during the first few months of a new administration in Washington in recent decades, but has even greater urgency due to the administration’s Iran policies. However, Biden may not want to meet with Netanyahu before the March 23 election in order not to appear like he is taking sides.

Tehran-Muscat stress expansion of economic and banking ties

During a meeting between the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) and Oman’s Foreign Affairs Minister Sayyid Badr bin Hamad, in Muscat, the two sides emphasized the necessity of expanding bilateral economic and banking relations.

Addressing the meeting, the Omani minister pointed to the importance of Iran's role and position in the region, and considered the expansion of trade and economic relations between the two countries important.

It should be noted that before this and in the meeting of the CBI governor with the commerce and industry minister of Oman in Tehran last year, strategies for continuous development and facilitation of banking and trade relations between Iran and Oman were discussed.

Hemmati arrived in Muscat on Tuesday for a two-day visit aimed at strengthening trade and banking relations between the two countries, given the new international condition.

Despite the US reimposition of sanctions against Iran, Oman is getting closer to the Islamic Republic both politically and economically. There is also the same approach adopted by Iran, as Iranian companies now prefer to conduct trade with Oman rather than the United Arab Emirates (UAE), given that the UAE is highly complying with the sanctions.

Iran is somehow replacing some of its previous strategic trade partners such as UAE with Oman, considering the Sultanate as an economic-trade hub.

Over the past two years, there have been many meetings and negotiations between trade and economic officials from the state-run and private sectors of the two sides with the aim of strengthening and expanding bilateral trade ties.

During the 18th meeting of the Iran-Oman Joint Economic Committee in Tehran, Omani minister of commerce and industry had said that his country was trying to boost its trade and economic ties with Iran, stressing that this goal could be achieved through more cooperation between the two sides’ private sectors.

Ali bin Masoud al Sunaidy also said, “We will make the most efforts to provide incentives for joint investment and also promote bilateral trade cooperation between the two countries.”

Stressing that a very proper condition is available for invigorating the bilateral trade, the Omani official said the two sides can also take the advantage of bartering to expand their trade ties.

Addressing the same meeting, Iran’s Former Industry, Mining and Trade Minister Reza Rahmani said while there are potential and capabilities for boosting the trade turnover between Iran and Oman to $5 billion, the figure is currently $1 billion.

The International North South Transit Corridor (INSTC) can help the two countries elevate their bilateral trade to this level, the minister noted.

Meanwhile, Iran-Oman Joint Chamber of Commerce and Iran Mine House (IMH) signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation for the expansion of the Iranian private sector’s presence in Oman in early August, 2020.

 

Angela Merkel backs Xi Jinping on need to avoid new cold war

German Chancellor, Angela Merkel said, she agrees with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the need to avoid a new cold war amid calls for a transatlantic alliance between the United States and Europe to counter China, but she will continue to press Beijing on human rights and transparency.

“The Chinese president spoke yesterday, and he and I agree on that,” she told the World Economic Forum on Tuesday evening. “We see a need for multilateralism.”

Diplomatic observers said Merkel was expressing her vision of how the European Union should handle relations with China amid suggestions the US and EU should form an alliance to counter Beijing, which they both regard as a rival.

The German leader was referring to Xi’s speech on Monday, when he called for setting aside ideological differences, avoiding a new cold war and promoting multiculturalism. The remarks were made as the Joe Biden administration in the US was busy trying to repair ties with allies troubled by the Trump presidency.

Biden has this week spoken to several European leaders, including Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, as his top foreign policy officials seek a more coordinated approach with US allies on China strategy.

Readouts of the phone calls from the American side all mention China as one of the foreign policy priorities, along with Russia and the Middle East. But the issue of China was not mentioned in either of the statements from Europe.

“I’d very much wish to avoid the building of blocs,” Merkel said on Tuesday. “I don’t think it would do justice to many societies if we just say this is China and there is the United States and we are grouping among either one or the other. This is not my understanding of how things ought to be.”

Merkel, Macron and Xi were three of the speakers at this year’s World Economic Forum, which was held online. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also addressed the meeting.

Macron called for building “an economy more resilient to shocks and capable of integrating elements of resistance into production chains, an economy that takes into account this principle of humanity, in health matters as in social inequalities”.

John Kerry, Biden’s new climate envoy, and Anthony Fauci, Director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, were the only two speakers from the US government.

Merkel also pledged to keep pressing China on human rights and transparency.

 “The president of China has committed to the charters of the United Nations and the dignity of the individual plays a part in the charters,” she said. “We have to discuss this issue no matter what social system we come from.”

Transparency was also key to multilateralism, to ensure trade took place in a rule-based system and in case parties “play out advantages against certain countries”, she said.

Merkel also cited China’s information release onCOVID-19 as an example of lack of transparency, and defended the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, which was agreed last month after seven years of negotiations.

The bill had made EU-China ties more reciprocal and put China’s labour standards more in line with those of the International Labor Organization, despite mounting concerns in Europe about Beijing’s reported forced labour in Xinjiang, she said.

Cui Hongjian, Director of the Department of European studies at the China Institute of International Studies, said Merkel’s remarks spoke of her vision of Europe as a coordinator between the US and China.

“It would serve Europe’s interests best if it maintains its strategic autonomy and plays the coordinator role between the US and China,” he said. “After the past four years, Europe has better realized the overlapping and contradictory interests with the US.”

Merkel’s direct reference to Xi’s speech was surprising, he said.

“I think it’s a shout to both the US and China, that multilateralism is the precondition for cooperation with either side,” he said.

India constructing power project in occupied Kashmir despite objections by Pakistan

It is reported that work has started on a power project in Indian occupied Kashmir despite Pakistan's objections. Pakistan has raised its concerns with the World Bank, stating that India’s project was not in consistency with the Indus Water Treaty (IWT).

India has undertaken to construct a power project on the Chenab River in Jammu and Kashmir.

Pakistan has maintained that the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers are reserved for the country, while the Ravi, Beas and the Sutlej rivers are reserved for India under the IWT, signed in 1960 between the two countries.

Islamabad has repeatedly expressed its serious concerns over designs of the Pakal Dul, Ratle and Lower Kalnai projects, insisting that India would be using the reservoirs to create deliberate and artificial water shortage or cause flooding in Pakistan.

 “These projects have been designed in violation of the IWT,” said a government official.

Official sources have confirmed that Pakistan has approached the World Bank with a fresh protest.

However, Islamabad’s efforts do not seem to distract India as the Narendra Modi-led government has decided to go ahead with the construction of the 850 megawatt Ratle hydroelectric power project, approval of which came during a recent meeting chaired by the Prime Minister.

In 2019, India had accepted Pakistan’s request for inspection of the hydropower project on the Chenab basin.

After the visit of the Pakistani delegation, Islamabad had raised objections over Pakal Dul’s design being in violation of the Sindh Taas Agreement.

“Pakistan had demanded that the freeboard height should be reduced from seven-feet to two-feet and the installation of the seal way gates should be done with an additional 40 metres in order to bring 1,620 metres and align it with sea level,” said a government official.

While Pakistan is hopeful that its fresh protests with the World Bank would yield results and help in stopping India from what it calls, blocking the country’s water through construction of its reservoirs, Modi inaugurated the projects and is all set to start the construction work also.

 Pakistani government officials maintain that this is New Delhi’s rivalry with Islamabad and its ambitions to create hurdles for the country by blocking its water and using it for flooding whenever it deems fit.

Jerusalem mansion of Grand Mufti Amin al-Husseini to become synagogue

It is learnt that the landmark hilltop mansion built 88 years ago in affluent Sheikh Jarrah between the Old City and Mount Scopus by Amin al-Husseini, Grand Mufti of Jerusalem in the 1920s and 1930s is slated to become a synagogue in a future 56-apartment Jewish neighborhood in east Jerusalem.

At present, the mansion called Qasr al-Mufti (the Mufti’s Palace) stands deserted at the center of a largely completed 28-apartment complex, which lacks occupancy permit. The reason the new neighborhood is not being finished – and indeed has not been marketed in the 10 years since demolition and construction began – is that the developers have applied to rezone the site to double the number of units to 56, according to Daniel Luria, a spokesman for Ateret Cohanim, which backs the housing project.

Luria was unclear when the rezoning application, originally meant to build 70 apartments, would be approved. The historic house at the core of the site will be preserved and repurposed for communal needs including a synagogue and perhaps a day care center, he said. “There is a beautiful poetic justice when you see the house of Amin al-Husseini crumbling down,” Luria noted.

Though al-Husseini built the mansion, he never lived in it. Following the outbreak in 1936 of the Arab Revolt against the British Mandate government, the mufti became a fugitive hiding in the Old City’s Haram ash-Sharif. When the British attempted to arrest him in 1937, he fled Palestine and the British made do with confiscating his property. The al-Husseini clan owned numerous properties in Jerusalem, among them the Palace Hotel (today the Waldorf Astoria), the Orient House, and the mansion subsequently turned into the Shepherd Hotel in Sheikh Jarrah on a plot of land known as Karam al-Mufti, named for al-Husseini.

Among the occupants at the mansion was his secretary George Antonius (1891-1942), who wrote his seminal The Arab Awakening while living there in 1938. Antonius’s widow Katy continued living in the building, which functioned as a salon where wealthy Palestinian Arabs and British officials socialized. (The city’s British sports club had a “No Natives” policy.)

At one of Katy’s elegant soirees in 1946 she met Sir Evelyn Barker. The much-decorated general was General Officer Commanding (GOC) of the British forces in Palestine and Trans-Jordan from 1946 to 1947. The two carried on a torrid affair and exchanged Judeophobic billets doux. In April 1947, he wrote her about the Jews: “Yes I loathe the lot – whether they be Zionists or not. Why should we be afraid of saying we hate them? It’s time this damned race knew what we think of them – loathsome people”.

On 13th April 1948, British troops posted at the mansion and the nearby Police Academy refused to intervene for eight hours as a convoy of doctors and nurses headed to Hadassah Hospital came under withering fire from Arab fighters; 68 were slaughtered in the massacre.

Following the war of Independence, the al-Husseini mansion became the Shepherd Hotel in the now-divided and impoverished city, though it was eclipsed by the Hotel Jerusalem Intercontinental, today called the Seven Arches, which opened on the Mount of Olives in 1964. After the 1967 Six Day War when Israel conquered and annexed east Jerusalem, the hotel was taken over by the Custodian of Absentee Property.

In 1985, it was sold to C and M Properties, owned by Florida bingo hall billionaire Irving Moskowitz (1928-2016), the benefactor of right-wing Israeli settler group intent on housing Jews in the eastern side of the now united city.

Following the zoning of Plan 2591, a request was made on 6th November 2008 to permit the company to build two new residential blocks, including 28 apartments built on top of an underground parking lot. In January 2011, the derelict four-story Shepherd Hotel annex added on to the mufti’s original mansion was demolished to make way for the future housing.

Rather than begin the lengthy process of rezoning the site – which adjoins the British Consulate – for a higher density, it was decided to build what was legally permitted and later apply to amend the zoning, Luria explained.

Who was Sheldon Adelson?

Sheldon Adelson committed as much as half a billion dollars from his vast fortune to buy control over a major element of US foreign policy and subordinated American interests to those of Israel. He was the principal funder of the Republican Party under Donald Trump and receiving in return the withdrawal of United States from the Iran nuclear agreement (JCPOA), the move of the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, the recognition of Israeli annexation of the Syrian Golan Heights and a virtual concession that the Jewish state could do whatever it wants vis-à-vis the Palestinians, including expelling them from Palestine.

Casino magnate and Israeli patriot multi-billionaire Adelson, one of the world’s richest men, died in Las Vegas on 11th January 2021, at the age 87. He has been buried at the Mount of Olives Cemetery in Israel. When his body arrived in Israel it was met by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as well as Jonathan Pollard, the most damaging spy in the history of United States.

Tributes to the fallen “hero” poured in from the political class in both the United States and Israel and it has even been reported that President Donald Trump was intending to hoist the American flag at half mast over federal buildings to honor the “great humanitarian philanthropist.” Unfortunately, the flag was already at half mast honoring the death of Capitol Police Force officer Brian Sicknick, who was murdered in the Capitol building..

Trump had plenty to say about his good buddy Adelson, who has been the principal funder of the Republican Party over the past five years. As he can no longer use Twitter, the president’s condolences were posted on the White House site: “Melania and I mourn the passing of Sheldon Adelson, and send our heartfelt condolences to his wife Miriam, his children and grandchildren. Sheldon lived the true American dream. His ingenuity, genius, and creativity earned him immense wealth, but his character and philanthropic generosity his great name. Sheldon was also a staunch supporter of our great ally the State of Israel. He tirelessly advocated for the relocation of the United States embassy to Jerusalem, the recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and the pursuit of peace between Israel and its neighbors. Sheldon was true to his family, his country, and all those that knew him. The world has lost a great man. He will be missed.”

Missing from the Trump eulogy is any mention of what Adelson did for the United States, which is his country of birth and where he made his fortune engaging in activity that many would consider to be a vice. In fact, Adelson was all about the Jewish state, positioning himself as the principal funder of the Republican Party under Donald Trump and receiving in return as a quid pro quo the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement (JCPOA), the move of the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, the recognition of Israeli annexation of the Syrian Golan Heights, and a virtual concession that the Jewish state could do whatever it wants vis-à-vis the Palestinians, to include expelling them from Palestine. Adelson once commented that Israel does not have to pretend to be a democracy but it must be Jewish, presumably to help the process of Arab genocide move along.

Adelson’s mechanism, initiated under George W. Bush, is familiar to how the Israel Lobby operates more generally. It consisted of the exploitation of the incessant need of campaign money by the GOP, which Adelson provided with strings attached. He worked with the Republicans to completely derail the admittedly faux peace process begun under Bill Clinton, which depended on a two-state solution, and instead give the Jewish state a free hand to implement its own unilateral Greater Israel Project extending from “the Jordan River to the Mediterranean.” As part of that expansion, Israel has been building illegal settlements while also bombing and killing Lebanese, Syrians, and Iranians and assassinating scientists and technicians throughout the region.

All of the interventions against Israel’s neighbors took place even though the Jewish state was not technically at war with anyone. The US meanwhile funded Israeli aggression and watched the spectacle without any complaint, providing political cover as necessary, while also maintaining a major military presence in the Middle East to “protect Israel,” as Trump recently admitted.

In short, Sheldon Adelson committed as much as half a billion dollars from his vast fortune to buy control over a major element of US foreign policy and subordinated American interests to those of Israel. In addition to direct donations to both major political parties, he also paid for Congressional “fact finding” trips to Israel and funded a number of pro-Israel lobbies, so-called charities and other related Jewish projects. It is indisputable that he wielded an incredible degree of power to shape Washington’s actions in the Middle East. In her own tribute to her dead husband, Miriam Adelson, an Israeli, described how he “crafted the course of nations.”

Adelson was actively engaged on Israel’s behalf until the week before his death. He provided his casino’s private 737 luxury executive jet to transport Jonathan Pollard “home” to Israel. Pollard has served 30 years in prison after being convicted of espionage and was on parole, which restricted his travel. As yet another gift to Israel, Donald Trump lifted that restriction, allowing him to fly to Israel where he received a hero’s welcome. It is generally agreed that Pollard was the most damaging spy in American history, having stolen the keys to accessing US communications and information gathering systems. A month after Pollard’s arrest in 1985, CIA director William Casey stated, “The Israelis used Pollard to obtain our war plans against the USSR – all of it, the coordinates, the firing locations, the sequences, and Israel sold that information to Moscow for more exit visas for Soviet Jews.”

Sheldon Adelson used his wealth and political connections to shield himself from any criticism due to his openly expressed preference for Israel over the land of his birth. He publicly stated that he wished he had worn the Israeli Army uniform instead of that of the US Army, where he served briefly as a draftee. He also expressed his desire that his son would serve as an Israeli army sniper, presumably allowing him to blow the heads off of Palestinians.

In 2013 Adelson advocated ending nuclear negotiations with Iran and instead detonating a nuclear weapon in “the middle of the [Iranian] desert,” followed by a threat to annihilate the capital city Tehran, home to 8.6 million, to force Iran to surrender its essentially non-existent nuclear program.

Other acknowledgements of the impact of Adelson came from officials in the Trump Administration. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo commented how his “efforts to strengthen the alliance between Israel and the United States…the world, Israel and the United States are safer because of his work.”

Is the world a better place due to the passing of Sheldon Adelson? His Israeli wife Miriam owns more than 40% of Las Vegas Sands Corp Casinos Inc., estimated to be worth in excess of US$17 billion. She has proposed that a new chapter be included in the Jewish bible, the Book of Trump, and has pledged herself to continue her husband’s work. Trump had previously given her the highest award that a president can bestow, the Presidential Medal of Freedom.

Qatar offers to mediate between Iran and United States

Qatar is ready to mediate between Iran and the United States as Joe Biden, assumes office of President, after the turbulent years of the Trump administrations, said Lolwah al-Khater, spokeswoman for Qatar’s Foreign Ministry. She also pointed out that Qatar is committed to engaging in a “constructive dialogue” between Tehran and the Arab states of the Persian Gulf.

“Qatar has expressed its willingness to play such a role, yet we have to be invited by both parties, who are still hesitant to take this step, in terms of entering and engaging in direct negotiations,” said al-Khater.

She stated that Iran and Arab states of Persian Gulf’s are geographical realities in the region and they need to start a direct dialogue.

“Iran is a geographical reality in our region and the [Persian] Gulf states are a geographical reality, no one is going away, and that is why it is very important to engage in a meaningful, constructive and direct dialogue," the spokeswoman asserted.

She said a dialogue between Iran and its Arab neighbors is even more important than a dialogue between Iran and the United States.

“If it was important for the US to have a dialogue with Iran, then it is even more important for us as [Persian] Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to have a meaningful and constructive dialogue with Iran, one that will preserve the collective security of our region, the rights of our peoples and ensure a prosperous future for coming generations,” she continued.

The Qatari official also pointed to Qatar’s trade ties with Iran and Turkey during the GCC crisis, saying that these ties helped Qatar in achieving a GDP growth more than that of its neighbors.

“Looking back, the economic gains are significant,” she said of the outcome of the crisis, pointing out that Qatar's GDP grew more than that of its neighbors during the blockade, when Doha strengthened its trade relations with Turkey, Iran and other countries in the area beyond the GCC.

The comments came a few weeks after Qatar mended ties with its Arab neighbors in a reconciliation deal brokered by the US. The deal put an end to a three-year-and-half dispute between Qatar and an Arab quartet of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt. In June 2017, the Saudi-led quartet severed diplomatic ties with Qatar and imposed a total blockade on the tiny Persian Gulf nation.

The four countries closed their airspace, land, and sea routes to Qatari planes, cars, and vessels, a move that prompted Qatar to use Iranian airspace. Kuwait, a country stuck in the middle of the dispute between its neighbors, had studiously worked to reconcile the opposing sides and succeeded in doing so in December.

On 5th January 2021, leaders of the GCC - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman- attended the al-Ula summit in Saudi Arabia in which they signed a reconciliation deal, putting an end to the years long GCC crisis.

“There have been no concessions from any side (...) the GCC crisis was a lose-lose situation for everyone, so ending this crisis, I think, will be a gain for everyone”, al-Khater said of the deal.

According to al-Khater, Doha has emerged stronger from the crisis, at least from an economic point of view, as in the past three and a half years it has “diversified its supply chains and reinforced its position as one of the largest energy exporters globally.”

“The blockade was a situation we did not choose, for sure, but we were able to live with it and sustain the situation. Ending the blockade is about the collective interest of our entire region, not only in Qatar’s interest,” the spokeswoman insisted.

Al-Khater’s remarks came after Qatar’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani called for dialogue between Iran and its Arab neighbors to resolve outstanding differences, expressing hope that the two sides would hold a summit to deescalate tensions.

“We are hopeful that this [summit] would happen and we still believe that this should happen. And I think this is also a desire that being shared among the other GCC countries. I just mentioned to you that there is a difference between the countries on the way how to approach such a dialogue. Also from the Iranian side, they have expressed their willingness several times to engage with the GCC countries,” he said in a recent interview with Bloomberg TV.

Bin Abdulrahman underlined that the time should come when the Persian Gulf’s Arab states will sit at the table with Iran and reach a common understanding. “We have to live with each other. We cannot change geography. Iran cannot move the GCC away from its neighborhood and the GCC cannot move Iran from the neighborhood,” he continued.

The chief Qatari diplomat also expressed readiness to facilitate dialogue between Iran and the GCC states or back anyone facilitating such a dialogue.

He also hoped that the much-anticipated talks between Iran and the US on the 2015 nuclear deal –officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)- would help ease tensions between Iran and its Arab neighbors.

Bin Abdulrahman expressed hope that what will happen between Iran and the US on the JCPOA would contribute to resolving the differences between Iran and the GCC. “Of course, things are interconnected at the end of the day,” he noted, adding that Qatar will support negotiations between the stakeholders.

“We will be welcoming this idea. We maintain a good relationship with the US and we maintain a good relationship with Iran,” bin Abdulrahman stated.

Iran welcomed the Qatari call for dialogue between Iran and the Persian Gulf’s Arab states, underlining that the solution to the region’s challenges lies in cooperation to form a strong region free from foreign interference.

“Iran welcomes my brother FM @MBA_AlThani's call for inclusive dialogue in our region. As we have consistently emphasized, the solution to our challenges lies in collaboration to jointly form a 'strong region': peaceful, stable, prosperous & free from global or regional hegemony,” Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said in a tweet following the Qatari foreign minister’s call for dialogue.

 

United States still viewed as ‘grey rhino’ risk for Chinese economy

The outlook for China-US trade ties under a Joe Biden presidency has been met with mixed views by Chinese economists; with some saying the United States remains the nation’s biggest “grey rhino” – a very obvious yet ignored threat – in terms of economic risk this year.

Biden, who was sworn in as the 46^th US president on Wednesday, inherits a bilateral relationship at historic lows and many economists are hoping he can reverse the course set by former president Donald Trump, who launched a damaging trade war in 2018.

“It is quite safe to say that in the past two years, no one has won the trade war. China may have suffered heavily, but the price the US has paid was also very high,” said Yu Yongding, a prominent Chinese economist and former central bank adviser.

China’s trade surplus with the US rose to US$316.91 billion in 2020 from US$295.77 billion in 2019, despite China’s purchasing commitments in the phase one trade deal and heavy tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Chinese goods.

The 2020 figure represents a 14.9 per cent jump from a US$275.8 billion surplus in 2017, when Trump took office claiming that China’s trade practices were unfair and cost Americans jobs.

One year after signing the phase one deal, China remains far behind in its commitment to buy more American goods. In the first 11 months of last year, China’s purchases of products included in the agreement reached only 58 per cent of its targets using US Census Bureau statistics, or 56 per cent using Chinese customs data, according to a report by Peterson Institute for International Economics released this month.

Yu said given China was so far behind the target partly due to the coronavirus pandemic, the two countries should renegotiate the agreement in accordance with the force majeure clause, which frees both sides from obligation due to extraordinary events outside their control.

 “To show good faith, China should in principle adhere to its commitments made in the phase one agreements,” he said. “Although personally I don’t like quantity targets – a deal is a deal.”

Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said Biden must change US policies towards China, including rolling back the Section 301 tariffs, most of which are still in place and borne by US importers and consumers, not Chinese exporters.

Although the Trump administration deserves credit for sounding the alarm on Xi Jinping-led China, “it did not address that challenge with effective policies that changed the facts on the ground in America’s favour,” said Kennedy in a note this week.

Biden is expected to adopt a less antagonistic tone towards China, but he has indicated his approach on trade will not differ hugely from Trump, at least in the short term. This has caused some Chinese economists to take a cautious stance towards the new president.

Guan Qingyou, an economist and president of Rushi Advanced Institute of Finance, said China’s fast recovery from the pandemic has accelerated it along its path to surpass the US as the world’s largest economy, and conflict between the two powers will become more pronounced.

 “The current appointments of senior officials in the Biden administration indicate that the US is building up pressure on China, and the grey rhino China faces this year may still come from the US,” he said in a note published this week.

His view was echoed by Chen Wenling, chief economist at the China Centre for International Economic Exchange, a government-backed think tank, who said on Tuesday “negative energy” from some American politicians had affected efforts to fight the pandemic and rescue the global economy, and might continue during the Biden administration.

“Even though some absurd politicians have withdrawn from the stage of history, the ghosts of the extremely ignorant populism, anti-intellectualism and McCarthyism will keep diffusing over these countries for a long time, continuing to impact the world economy and China-US relations,” she said.

There are also concerns about Biden’s impact on the Chinese yuan exchange rate. The Chinese currency surged against the US dollar last year starting in May, as the world’s second largest economy remained a rare bright spot in an otherwise ravaged global economy.

We’ve previously glorified Biden that he might cut tariffs when he comes into power, but now it seems that he won’t roll back the tariffs immediately

However, the yuan has declined so far this month on expectations for more US economic stimulus under Biden, who unveiled a $1.9 trillion economic rescue plan last week.

China promised not to manipulate the yuan’s exchange rate for competitive advantage as part of the phase one deal, but the US Department of the Treasury kept China on its watch list for foreign-exchange manipulation in its final report before the Trump left office.

Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist at Ping An Securities, expected more volatility ahead for the yuan, especially in the early stage of Biden’s term.

“Last year the capital market had a very high expectation of de-escalation in US-China relations that partially led to the surge of the yuan,” Zhong said in a webinar this week. “We’ve previously glorified Biden that he might cut tariffs when he comes into power, but now it seems that he won’t roll back the tariffs immediately.

“That’s the key point, because the gap in the expectations will inevitably cause fluctuations in the yuan exchange rate.”

Courtesy: South China Morning Post

Joe Biden nominates 20 Indo-Americans, 13 of them women

Joe Biden, President of United States has nominated at least 20 Indian Americans, including 13 women, to key positions in his administration. Among the Indians are Hindus, Muslims and Christians. As many as 17 of them would be part of the White House complex. This comes as a feat for the small ethnic community that constitutes one percent of America’s population.

Kamala Harris is also the first person of South Asia descent to sworn in as Vice President of the United States. “The dedication that the Indian-American community has shown to public service over the years has been recognized in a big way at the very start of this administration! I am particularly pleased that the overwhelming majority are women. Our community has truly arrived in serving the nation,” Indiaspora founder M. R. Rangaswami told PTI.

Biden had assured the Indian-American community during a virtual celebration of India’s Independence Day on August 15, 2020 that he will continue to reply on the diaspora during his presidential stint. “My constituents in Delaware, my staff in the Senate, the Obama-Biden administration, which had more Indian-Americans than any other administration in the history of this country and this campaign with Indian Americans at senior levels, which of course includes the top of the heap, our dear friend (Harris) who will be the first Indian-American vice president in the history of the United States of America,” Biden had said in his video address.

Here’s a list of all the India-Americans nominated so far:

Neera Tanden: She has been nominated as Director of the White House Office of Management and Budget.

Dr Vivek Murthy: He has been nominated as the US Surgeon General.

Vanita Gupta: She has been nominated as Associate Attorney General Department of Justice.

Uzra Zeya: She has been nominated under Secretary of State for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights.

Mala Adiga: She has been appointed as Policy Director to the First Lady Dr Jill Biden.

Garima Verma: She has been nominated as the Digital Director of the Office of the First Lady.

Sabrina Singh: She has been named as the First Lady’s Deputy Press Secretary.

Aisha Shah: She has been named as Partnership Manager at the White House Office of Digital Strategy.

Sameera Fazili: She would occupy the key position of Deputy Director at the US National Economic Council (NEC) in the White House.

Bharat Ramamurti: He has been nominated as the Deputy Director of the White House National Economic Council.

Gautam Raghavan: He has been nominated as Deputy Director in Office of Presidential Personnel.

Vinay Reddy: He has been named as Director of Speechwriting.

Vedant Patel: He has been nominated as Assistant Press Secretary to the President.

Sonia Aggarwal: She has been named Senior Advisor for Climate Policy and Innovation in the Office of the Domestic Climate Policy at the White House.

Vidur Sharma: He has been appointed as Policy Advisor for Testing for the White House Covid-19 Response Team.

Apart from them, three Indian-Americans have made their way to the crucial National Security Council of the White House, thus leaving a permanent imprint on the country’s foreign policy and national security. They are: Tarun Chhabra –Senior Director for Technology and National Security; Sumona Guha — Senior Director for South Asia; Shanthi Kalathil — Coordinator for Democracy and Human Rights

Two Indian-Americans women have been appointed to the Office of the White House Counsel — Neha Gupta as Associate Counsel and Reema Shah as Deputy Associate Counsel.

Courtesy: South Asia Journal

Saudi American relations may strangulate over Biden's position on Khashoggi

Questions are being raised regarding the fate of relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States under President Joe Biden whose incoming administration has vowed to uncover the circumstances behind the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

Avril Haines, had pledged to declassify the intelligence report on the murder of Khashoggi, a columnist for the Washington Post, and to present it to Congress. Avril Haines has been confirmed Director of National intelligence Wednesday evening, making her the first official member of President Joe Biden’s Cabinet. Before adjourning for the evening, the Senate voted 84 to 10 on Haines’ confirmation.

"Yes, I will abide by the law, "Haines said during a Senate hearing on 19th January 2021, in response to a question from Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., about whether she would submit a report to Congress, if appointed director of national intelligence.

Salman Al-Ansari, founder and president of the Washington-based Saudi American Public Relation Affairs Committee, told The Media Line that the Saudi judicial system has said its final word on the Khashoggi case.

“The relations of Riyadh and Washington are too strong to be affected by irrational media populism,” Al-Ansari said.

He said that the issue of the Khashoggi murder is being raised by lobbyists that are hostile to the Saudi kingdom, who don’t care about America's basic interests in the Middle East.

Saudi authorities have charged 11 suspects in the killing but have not disclosed their names. Five who went on trial in secret proceedings were sentenced to the death penalty for “ordering and committing the crime.” They were later officially forgiven by Khashoggi’s children, sparing them execution. In addition, two senior officials, Saud al-Qahtani, a key adviser to the Saudi crown prince; and Ahmad Asiri, Deputy Chief of Saudi intelligence, were fired although they were not part of the team that traveled to Istanbul.

Suleiman al-Ogaily, an analyst, writer and member of the board of directors of the Saudi Society for Political Science, told The Media Line that the promises made by US administrations during election campaigns are not necessarily the policy adopted by the administration when it takes power.

“I believe that the Saudi-American relations are strategic, and they will not be shaken by the divergence of views on some issues,” al-Ogaily said.

“Riyadh is an important geopolitical and geostrategic force that has its regional and international status. And any rotation in its alliances and international policies will change the face of the region,” al-Ogaily said.

In 2017, President Donald Trump and Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz signed a series of letters of intent allowing the kingdom to purchase US$110 billion in arms immediately from the United States, and another US$350 billion in arms purchases over 10 years.

In 2019, Congress asked Director of National Intelligence to reveal who ordered the killing of Khashoggi, but he declined to do so, insisting that the information must be kept confidential. Later, Congress approved a legal amendment requiring the Trump administration to provide a full report on those responsible for the crime, but Trump did not respond to the demand.

The United States imposed sanctions on 17 Saudis over the Khashoggi murder, but many congressmen accused the Trump administration of seeking to "protect" Saudi Arabia from accountability.

Robert Mogielnicki, resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, told The Media Line that the new Biden Administration is likely to pressure the Saudis to implement additional changes “beyond the goodwill garnered from Gulf reconciliation efforts.”

“Some in the Biden administration and many Democrats in Congress will want to see positive movement on Saudi involvement in Yemen and the human rights record in the kingdom,” he said.

Mogielnicki said that Biden’s foreign policy priority will be Iran. “The Saudis will want to be part of this foreign affairs portfolio, but the level of their involvement is going to depend on how relations with the new administration unfold,” he said.

“Although the early days of Saudi-US ties may be stormy, the Saudis are not in unchartered waters. The Saudis know Joe Biden, and he knows the Saudis. They will ultimately find a way to work together in a number of areas over the next four years,” he added.

Nine hurdles to revitalizing JCPOA

A West Asia security and nuclear policy specialist at Princeton University, has enumerated nine hurdles to revitalizing Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), nuclear deal that Iran signed with 5+1 nations - five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany - in July 2015.

Seyed Hossein Mousavian points that “snapback” mechanism in JCPOA favors 5+1 nations only. “The ‘snapback’ mechanism built into the agreement allows any country to force the UN Security Council to reimpose multilateral sanctions against Iran if Iran fails to fulfill its commitments. But this is one-sided: There is no such remedy for Iran if other parties fail to do their part,” Mousavian writes.

The article was published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on 19th January 2021, one day before Joe Biden officially sworn in as President of United States.

Following is the text of the article titled “Nine hurdles to reviving the Iran nuclear deal”:

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on 8th January 2021 that Tehran was in no rush for the United States to rejoin the 2015 nuclear deal formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), but, he also said, sanctions on Iran must be lifted immediately.

“If the sanctions are lifted, the return of the Americans makes sense,” he insisted. President-elect Joe Biden has announced his plan to return to the deal soon after he is sworn into office. “If Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal,” he wrote in an op-ed for CNN, “the United States would rejoin.” His Iranian counterpart, President Hassan Rouhani, has also expressed willingness to return to the deal, stating that, “Iran could come into compliance with the agreement within an hour of the United States doing so.”

Five years ago, after years of intensive negotiations, six world powers managed to sign the world’s most comprehensive nuclear agreement with Iran. While the agreement was a political one, it was also ratified by the UN Security Council in Resolution 2231. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the organization tasked with verifying the agreement’s technical aspects, Iran was fully complying with the deal for about three years, until President Trump withdrew from it in May 2018. In response to the US violations of the nuclear agreement, Iran too reduced some of its commitments. Most recently, on 4th January2021, Iran announced that it had increased its uranium enrichment levels to 20 percent. Although reviving the agreement is certainly still possible, it won’t be easy. The two sides will need to overcome nine hurdles to make it happen:

First, the sequencing of a mutual return could be an immediate problem. Iran expects the United States to lift sanctions first, because it was the Trump administration that withdrew first. While Tehran’s demand is legitimate, Washington may ask that Iran come into full compliance before lifting sanctions. Indeed, a straightforward reading of the quotation from Joe Biden’s op-ed suggests just that. In this scenario, after Joe Biden’s executive order rejoining the deal, Iran and the world powers can meet and agree on a realistic plan with a specified timeline of proportionate reciprocal actions.

Second is the issue of what compliance constitutes. During the Obama administration there was one major barrier to the full realization of the terms of the agreement: Many primary sanctions, targeting US citizens and permanent residents, organizations, and individuals that engage in trade and business with their Iranian counterparts, remained intact. These sanctions limited the economic benefits of the deal for Iran. The 29th paragraph of the deal clearly states that all signatories will refrain from any policy specifically intended to directly and adversely affect the normalization of trade and economic relations with Iran. This cannot be achieved without abolishing the primary sanctions.

Third, the Trump administration imposed numerous sanctions against Iran under the guise of terrorism and human rights, aimed at preventing the Biden administration from returning to the deal. For a clean implementation of the agreement, Biden will need to remove all of these sanctions as well.

Fourth, Trump’s withdrawal from the agreement and violation of the UN Security Council Resolution 2231 as well as other international commitments has damaged US credibility abroad. There is now a widespread belief among policy makers in Iran that the United States will simply not live up to its end of the bargain, no matter what that bargain is. This naturally raises the important question: What guarantees are there that the United States will remain committed to the deal in the post-Biden era?

Fifth, because of Trump’s maximum pressure policy, the Iranian economy has suffered hundreds of billions of dollars of losses, while Iran was in full compliance with the terms and conditions of the deal. Some Iranian leaders, including Iran’s foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, have demanded compensation for the economic damage the country suffered after the United States withdrew. The challenge will be to find a mechanism to compensate for the economic damages that the Trump administration inflicted on the Iranian economy.

Sixth, the “snapback” mechanism built into the agreement allows any country to force the UN Security Council to reimpose multilateral sanctions against Iran if Iran fails to fulfill its commitments. But this is one-sided: There is no such remedy for Iran if other parties fail to do their part. This became abundantly clear when the Trump administration first withdrew from the deal and then tried to unilaterally re-impose multilateral sanctions on Iran through the snapback mechanism. It was as if the injurer was demanding punishment for the injured. Although the UN Security Council rejected the US demand, the stunt revealed the structural flaw of the snapback.

Seventh, in the first week of December 2020, the Iranian parliament passed a bill mandating Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization to resume enriching uranium to 20 percent purity. The legislation also requires the Iranian government to cease voluntary implementation of the IAEA’s Additional Protocol within two months of the bill’s enactment if the other signatories fail to fully deliver on their commitments under the agreement. And after three months, the Atomic Energy Organization is obliged to begin using at least 1,000-second-generation centrifuges. In short, president-elect Biden will need to move fast.

Eighth, there were some in the United States who were worried that Trump may start a reckless last-ditch war with Iran before leaving office. While this concern is overblown, there should be no doubt that US partners in the region will do whatever they can to prevent Biden’s return to the deal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already said as much. To be sure, the hardliners in Iran are also fundamentally opposed to the deal.

Ninth, some pundits and politicians in Washington want Biden to leverage the Trump administration’s sanctions to pressure Iran to accept additional commitments beyond the original agreement as a condition for US return to compliance. These include limiting Iran’s missile capability, extending the “sunset” clauses within the deal, or resolving regional disputes. But from Iran’s perspective, such demands are a non-starter. As the spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry said recently, “No negotiation has been, is being, or will be held about Iran’s defense power.”

Despite these hurdles, Biden should nevertheless seek re-entry into the deal. Only a clean and full implementation by all parties can save the world’s most comprehensive nuclear agreement, contain rising US-Iran tensions, and open the path toward more confidence building measures. That path should include, upon Biden’s issuing an executive order to rejoin the JCPOA, the creation of a working committee of parties to the agreement tasked with ensuring full compliance by all signatories, and a forum, organized by the UN Secretary General, in which Iran and the Persian Gulf countries can discuss a new structure for improving security and cooperation in the region.

Focus should be on oil and gas, not maritime dispute, Beijing urges Philippines

China and the Philippines should not be distracted by their disputes in the South China Sea and should instead focus on advancing cooperation on oil and gas exploration in the region, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said when wrapping up his week-long tour of Southeast Asia.

Wang said the two countries would continue to “properly manage their disputes” and push for oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea.

Wang’s trip that included stopovers in Myanmar, Indonesia and Brunei was part of Beijing seeking to consolidate its ties with the region.

In an interview with state media posted on the Ministry’s website, Wang highlighted China’s desire to move the focus away from maritime disputes to joint exploration of resources in the waters. “Both sides believe that the South China Sea issue is only partial to the entirety of Sino-Philippines relations,” Wang said, discussing the outcomes of his Manila visit. “We should not let such one percent difference derail the 99 percent of our relations.”

Separately during Wang’s tour, China and Brunei set up a working group on energy cooperation, the ministry said on Friday, without providing details.

The Philippine government in October lifted a ban on offshore oil and gas exploration, reopening the door to joint energy development with China.

Two years ago, the two governments signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly explore undersea oil and gas, a way of defusing their corner of a broader regional dispute.

In 2016, an international tribunal in The Hague upheld the Philippines’ challenge to Beijing’s territorial claims to almost all of the South China Sea, but Beijing has never accepted the ruling. President Rodrigo Duterte’s administration has promised to shelve the dispute in exchange for Beijing’s economic aid.

As the Duterte administration nears its end, Beijing has sought to reaffirm support for its neighbour, promising half a million doses of Covid-19 vaccines, US$1.34 billion in loan pledges for infrastructure projects and US$77 million in grants.

Wang said the supply of vaccines to the Philippines showed Beijing’s willingness to help the Philippines overcome its Covid-19 pandemic challenges.

China and the Philippines also announced an arrangement for fast-track border crossing during the pandemic for certain personnel, and opened the Bank of China’s yuan clearing business in the Philippines.

China would continue to take part in the Philippine side’s infrastructure plans and actively promote cooperation on major projects to lay a better foundation for the Philippines’ long-term development, Wang said.

He said China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations were working together to advance post-pandemic recovery. “Facts once again show that adherence to regional and a multilateral mechanism is more important than ever,” he said.

Israel fears losing its freedom to operate against Iran

Speculation about the extent to which the incoming American administration will appease Iran has been rampant. But US President-elect Joe Biden’s picks for relevant top positions don’t seem to leave much room for supposition.

Let’s start with William Burns, Biden’s nomination for CIA director. Burns currently serves as president of the left-wing foreign-policy think tank the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, one of its donors is the Open Society Foundations network, established by George Soros.

Burns has decades of experience as a career diplomat under both Democratic and Republican administrations. Burns is a longtime associate of Biden. The two have worked closely together, most recently when the latter was Vice President and the former was Deputy Secretary of State for Near Eastern affairs, during the administration of former US President, Barack Obama.

Burns who had served as Ambassadors to Russia and Jordan, also had a key role in talks with the regime in Tehran in 2013. These led to the 2015 signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and the 5+1 countries: the United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia and China plus Germany. By that time Burns had retired, but his imprint lived on in the nuclear deal.

In this context, Biden’s statement about Burns – “[He] shares my profound belief that intelligence must be apolitical” – is not liked by his opponents. The cause of greater concern is Burns’s faith in the JCPOA from which outgoing US President Donald Trump withdrew in 2018.

In an 29th August 29 2020 opinion piece in The Atlantic titled “‘America First’ Enters its Most Combustible Moment,” Burns spelled out his objections.

 “Any leverage against Iran produced by the UAE-Israel agreement [the Abraham Accords between the United Arab Emirates and the Jewish state that subsequently were signed on 15th September 2020 at the White House] is already being swallowed up in the serial diplomatic malpractice of the administration’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign – aimed more at toppling the Iranian regime than at changing its behavior,” he wrote. “Doubling down on failed policy is not a smart diplomatic prescription... but the Trump administration is not likely to see the light. Instead, it will continue to pretend that the United States can participate in only the punitive parts of the Iran nuclear deal... [a strategy that it] tried – and spectacularly failed at.”Nothing could be further from the truth. Trump’s “maximum-pressure campaign” is anything but “diplomatic malpractice.”

Antony Blinken, for instance – who, pending congressional confirmation, will replace Pompeo – is another JCPOA enthusiast. Blinken served under Obama, first as Deputy National Security advisor and then as deputy secretary of state. Like Burns, he was instrumental in formulating and promoting the deal. He also wants to lift sanctions against Tehran as one of those “goodwill gestures” that American multilateralists so love extending to the regimes.

He was clear about this in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA. In a thread of tweets on 9th May 2018, Blinken wrote, “By blowing up the Iran nuclear deal, President Trump puts us on a collision course with Iran and our closest allies. It gives Iranian hardliners the excuse to speed again toward the bomb without a united international coalition to oppose them or inspectors to expose them. Or if Iran and Europe stick with the deal, it forces us to sanction the latter to stop them from doing business with the former. Either way we lose.”

AS IF THIS weren’t an illustration of the degree to which Democrats misunderstand – or are willfully blind to – the mindset of the Iranian mullahs, Blinken goes on to make a ridiculous assertion. The cancellation of the JCPOA, he tweeted, “makes getting to yes with North Korea that much more challenging.

Cognizant of new reality, Israel is boosting its ability to combat Iranian forces and other proxy groups. The Democrats in the White House, State Department and Capitol building are lying in wait to lead the world, as Obama proudly did, “from behind.”

Will Biden also use India against China?

The United States has declassified its 2018 Indo-Pacific strategy for unknown reasons, although it was initially set to be released to the public at the end of 2042. Over the last three years, this National Security Council strategy has guided American maneuvers and policy in a region extending from the United State’s Pacific Coast all the way to India.

At its heart, the strategy reveals a deep concern with China’s rising influence in the Western and Central Pacific. It also highlights plans to deal with an increasingly belligerent North Korea, while seeking to strengthen India to counter Chinese military power.

The strategy was initially devised throughout 2017, going on to be approved and enforced by President Donald Trump in 2018 shortly after the US National Defense Strategy was finalized.

While the strategy’s actual authors are not credited in the document, much of the document accurately reflects the White House’s actions in the region for the last three years.

The strategy shares rare insights into how the US perceives its opponents and allies in the region, specifically India, China and North Korea. There is a realization that China enjoys growing dominance in the Indo-Pacific and it is the United State’s primary adversary and strategic opponent in the area. 

The strategy dwells how to maintain the US strategic edge and promote a liberal economic order while preventing China from establishing new, illiberal spheres of influence, and cultivating areas of cooperation to promote regional peace and prosperity. It also emphasizes that China will circumvent international rules and norms to gain an advantage in a strategic face-off between the two powers.

While the strategy doesn’t specifically mention the paths China follows to further its dominance in the region, it does cite China’s increasing use of digital surveillance, information controls, and influence operations that will counter US efforts to promote its values and national interests, not only in the Indo-Pacific, but also within the Western hemisphere itself.

Parallel to the strategy, the US government and military have consistently sounded alarms over China’s expanding nuclear arsenal, long-range ballistic and cruise missile capabilities, and the resurgence of its naval fleet.

Broadly speaking, it aims to build US capabilities to be capable of, but not limited to denying China control of the air and the sea in the first island chain, referring to a string of Pacific islands surrounding China that include Russia’s Kamchatka peninsula, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam. China claims most of these waters. It also emphasizes the need to defend the first island chain, and dominate all areas outside it. 

While the document does not mention the South China Sea dispute, it reflects a concern over China’s claims there and in other parts of the Western Pacific. The South China Sea and Western Pacific as a whole have seen a tremendous increase in Chinese military activity, but also activities by the US and its allies in the region.

The strategy adopted by the Trump administration has arguably led to the worst deterioration in US-China ties in recent history, triggering an ongoing trade war and US commitment to defence of Taiwan by approving large defence deals with the island nation. On top of Trump blaming China for the COVID-19 global pandemic and accusing it of mismanaging the outbreak, Trump has fostered deeper ties with Taiwan that go beyond arms deals and include military capacity building and reinforce diplomatic ties.

After identifying China as a primary strategic concern, the strategy turns its attention to North Korea. Threatened by its multiple missile launches in 2017 including one missile that flew over Japan, the strategy acknowledges the rapid technological advances North Korea realized in its missile technology.

India features prominently in US strategic plans for the region. Specifically, the strategy seeks to build a quadrilateral security framework with India, Japan, Australia and the US. The four-cornered strategy wants to use a strong India to counterbalance China.

This comes after pointing out that India is already able to counter border provocations by China. It should be noted that the strategy was passed before India-China skirmishes in the Doklam region. 

Interestingly, the strategy makes no mention of Pakistan at all in spite of its close ties to China. It further defines a key need to accelerate India’s rise and capacity to serve as a net provider of security and Major Defense Partner; solidify an enduring strategic partnership with India underpinned by a strong Indian military able to effectively collaborate with the United States and its partners in the region to address shared interests.

The US Navy has advocated creating a new naval command exclusively for the Indian Ocean and close-by areas of the pacific. With the expiration of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the US has also assessed different locations in South East Asia to position long-range missile forces that would be able to counter China’s own strategic missiles.

Meanwhile, India continues to enjoy large defence procurements from the US, including the F-21 fighter jet. Others have indicated this could be a form of induction to bring India into the F-35 stealth fighter program. 

In spite of its bold efforts, much of the strategy’s ambitious objectives have yet to be fulfilled. That’s not to say that the strategy went entirely unfulfilled. The US Navy is set to create a new fleet to cover the Western Pacific. Freedom of Navigation deployments to the region is increasing, along with the major US efforts to arm Taiwan. While the strategy reflects Trump’s legacy, its approach may still shape coming US strategy as Biden’s new administration seeks to contend with China and North Korea.