Netanyahu succeeds in achieving his motives

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu virtually lost control of the Knesset in the latest election. It also became evident that he would not only lose premiership, but also face imprisonment in some of the corruption cases. Many doubted his continuation as Prime Minister. 

While all his opponents were busy in preparing plans to stop formation of the government by him, he and his partners turned the table. As the country is facing internal turmoil and attacks from Gaza, he is likely to emerge as the last choice in the prevailing circumstances.

Many may not like it, but his opponents proved too feeble, failed in forming an alliance and end his tenure, he continues to enjoy the premiership. It is also anticipated that many countries which support Israel, despite all its atrocities, would prefer to keep him power. Two of his biggest achievements were reorganization of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and shifting of the US Embassy to newly declared capital. He was also able to delay joining of United States JCOPA.

Firing of barges of rocket from Gaza by Hamas also helped him in proving two of his points: 1) Iran was fighting a proxy war in the region and 2) Muslim Ummah is fragmented and incapable of taking any unified stand against Israel. Muslim countries even failed in calling Israeli Ambassadors in foreign office and handing them over notes of descent. Still, Muslim countries have not been to call a UN or OIC meeting and condemning Israel’s outrageous behavior.

Now there is little talk about indiscriminate firing and shelling by Israel’s law enforcing personnel, but all are condemning Hamas for firing rockets and Iran for supplying these rockets to Hamas. It is also evident that the draft of UN resolution will be very mild or meaningless; it may rather hold Palestinians responsible for the current turmoil.

Fully cognizant of the US might, even the global and regional powers were prompt in recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Some of the Muslim countries which agreed to normalize relations with Israel in return for some paltry favors by the United States may not extend any support to Palestinians. The helplessness of countries like Egypt, Jordan and Syria is evident from the fact that Israel has not only been occupying their lands but also constructing settlements there. Gaza is often termed the biggest open air jail for Palestinians.

Is Israel heading towards fifth election?

In Israeli politics, there is no formal draft for future stars, but there are definitely parties that look ahead rather than at the present. That has never been truer than with Tuesday election. Strategists in parties across the political spectrum admit behind the scenes that with all due respect to the current race, they are actually focusing on yet another election.

Initial exit polls on Tuesday night indicated that Netanyahu’s bloc had won 61 seats together with Naftali Bennett’s Yamina Party, and thus would be able to form a government, but the final results could end up being different.

It does not matter if the fifth election will take place in October 2021 or in 2025. What does matter to the parties is that the three-decade political career of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will eventually end and that will change everything.

They start with Bennett. While it initially looked like he would remain independent in the race, he instead chose to be careful not to leave the Right, even though it could have helped him win more seats in this election. 

Sources close to Bennett said he had in mind building himself up for the next election in the post-Netanyahu era. For that, he could not be the one who prevents the formation of a right-wing government.

The Center-Left similarly looked to the future. Rather than wasting a potentially stronger candidate in a potentially unwinnable fight against Netanyahu, leading figures in the camp said the time had come to run Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid and finish him off with a loss.

Labor leader Merav Michaeli has spoken openly about using this election to build her up and rebuild Labor, in order to be ready for the next one.

The best example was the ultimate potential game-changer for this election, Gadi Eizenkot. He saw what Netanyahu did to his fellow former IDF chief of staff, Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, and preferred to sit this race out and wait for post-Netanyahu era.

The Likud’s future leadership candidates, like Nir Barkat for instance, have also purposely been keeping a low profile.

Watching New Hope leader Gideon Sa’ar collapse from 21 seats when the campaign began to five or six after challenging Netanyahu’s political powerhouse in this election, proved parties taking this election not too seriously were better off.

Israel wish list for a new Iran Nuclear Deal

Ensuring US President Joe Biden administration works to fully and effectively prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon is the first priority for Israel. If the Biden administration enters into talks with Iran, Israel wishes to ensure the weak points of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers are left out of the new deal.

Those include removing the sunset clauses, which gradually removed sanctions and limitations on uranium enrichment, such that Iran would have been able to develop a nuclear weapon in 2030 under the terms of the JCPOA.

Another Israeli priority is “anywhere, anytime inspections” of Iran nuclear sites, as opposed to Tehran being forewarned as the deal currently requires.

Those are far more important to Israel than something members of the Biden administration and some Israeli media reports have suggested: to add clauses to the JCPOA to stop Iran’s ballistic missile program and malign activities in the region. Israel believes Iran must not have a right to enrich uranium under whatever future framework is reached.

Israel is preparing a plan to counter Biden administration’s intention to negotiate a return to the Iran deal. As reported in The Jerusalem Post earlier, the security cabinet has not met to discuss the matter, but the senior government source said a smaller forum of top ministers will likely determine overall strategy.

In recent weeks, Biden administration officials have said talk of rejoining the JCPOA is premature, and that they plan to speak with allies in the region, Israel among them, before negotiating with Iran. Israel is reassured by those remarks, and that Israel is not looking for a fight with Biden. Rather, Israeli officials prefer that there be conversations behind closed doors between top officials.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to seek an in-person meeting with Biden in the coming months. Such a meeting between the Israeli prime minister and the new US president is customary during the first few months of a new administration in Washington in recent decades, but has even greater urgency due to the administration’s Iran policies. However, Biden may not want to meet with Netanyahu before the March 23 election in order not to appear like he is taking sides.