MBS Silence and Strategic Pressure

The unusually restrained posture of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) during the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran reflects a deeper geopolitical shift unfolding across the Middle East. For decades, Washington’s regional strategy relied heavily on portraying Iran as the principal threat to Arab security. However, the China-brokered rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran weakened that narrative and signaled growing strategic independence within the Gulf.

Equally significant is Riyadh’s continued reluctance to join the Abraham Accords despite persistent pressure from the United States. Several Gulf states now appear increasingly cautious about unconditional alignment with Washington’s regional priorities.

Against this backdrop, the renewed legal attention to the Jamal Khashoggi case in France carries significance beyond the human rights dimension alone. A French anti-terrorism judge has been tasked with investigating allegations linked to Khashoggi’s killing inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018 — years after Turkey transferred proceedings to Saudi authorities and the United States effectively closed related civil litigation by granting immunity protections to MBS.

There is no evidence of direct political coordination behind the French inquiry. Yet, in geopolitics, timing often shapes perception as much as facts themselves. The reopening of a dormant controversy at a moment of visible divergence between Washington and Riyadh inevitably invites broader strategic interpretation.

Whether the renewed focus on Khashoggi is purely judicial or partly geopolitical may become clearer in the months ahead, particularly if tensions between the United States and Saudi Arabia continue to widen.

What caused downfall of Benjamin Netanyahu?

With the passage of time it is becoming evident that Israel's legendary Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu has lost his charisma. Now, his friend and foes are discussing likely reasons that have contributed to his outset.

My reply is very simple and easy to comprehend. He has met a fate that is rule one of the spy book, “eliminate an agent when he becomes redundant”.  I will go to the extent of saying that he is very lucky because he is still surviving and analysts are talking about his possible return to power.

The history books are full of the stories of the icons who were assassinated after their missions were accomplished. While the list is very long, I will name a few from the recent history: Jamal Khashoggi of Saudi Arabia, Saddam Hussein of Iraq and Anwar Sadat of Egypt. Also I can’t resist referring to blowing up of plane with President of Pakistan, Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq, US Ambassador to Pakistan and more than half a dozen of Pakistani Generals, who helped United States in winning war against USSR in Afghanistan.

Netanyahu’s biggest accomplishment was recognition of Jerusalem as capital of Israel by the United States and shifting of its Embassy there. He was also used to buyout loyalties of a few Arab countries. Finally he was trapped to initiate an assault on Gaza that included demolishing a building that housed international media houses. All these acts accelerated his departure. On top of all, a new and unnatural alliance has been created to nominate his successor.

Some embedded journalists are saying, “Netanyahu’s downfall is not the result of any external shock. Unlike Golda Meir, he had no Yom Kippur War. Unlike Herbert Hoover, he had no Great Crash. And unlike George W. Bush, he had no Hurricane Katrina. Netanyahu’s downfall is not about events or ideas. It’s about character.”

It is also being said that historians will likely mark 2021 as the year his star fell, even if someday his career rebound. After 12 straight years of political mastery, the wiz who habitually built coalitions, floored opponents and toyed with rival and allied parties – has run out of tricks.

Just to malign him, a number of questions are being raised, how could Netanyahu not understand that leaving Gideon Sa’ar out of his last government (of more than 30 members) would make the wounded man hate and fight him? How could he not understand that Bennett would not forgive his attempt to create negative news about Bennett’s wife? How would Gantz forgive Netanyahu’s failure to let him know he was negotiating peace agreements?

It is also being said, he believed that since he is that smart, everyone else is that stupid; Netanyahu assumed that since he is that big, justice is that small.

Indeed, contrasting and balancing Netanyahu’s greatness and smallness will be his biographers’ trickiest task. His downfall is not a mystery. It resulted from the smallness of a big leader who knew so much about history, economics and diplomacy, but so little about people, justice and trust.

What United States loves the most? Saudi Crown Prince or US$134 billion arms sale

At present, the United States and Saudi Arabia are experiencing a new era in their 76-year relationships. The priorities have changed after the release of the CIA findings. The report says Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) had ‘approved’ the 2018 murder of prominent Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi.

Historically, an American president has never cut off personal links to the Saudi heir apparent, who has often served as de facto ruler of the kingdom. But the White House declared his intention to make that very heir a ‘pariah’ in Washington and internationally as well.

The State Department has also set a new precedent by issuing visa restrictions on 76 Saudis believed to have been engaged in threatening dissidents overseas’ under a new ‘Khashoggi ban’ created in memory of the Saudi journalist murdered inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October 2018.

MBS has been deliberately spared from the Khashoggi ban, or any other sanction, to preserve a minimum communication and cooperation between the two governments. Former Saudi ambassador to Washington, Prince Turki al-Faisal noted, MBS is destined to live under a lifetime ‘stigma’ for his role in the affair. He is unlikely to be invited to the White House for years to come.     

Biden has said that from now on, he will only talk to King Salman, Mohammed’s father and the American President’s official counterpart. But the king is 85 years old and in failing health. When he dies, would Biden refuse to communicate with the kingdom’s new monarch? It will be an unprecedented situation in the history of US-Saudi relations dating back to World War II.

In the past, the personal relationship between the US President and reigning Saudi monarch has been a key determinant in setting both the tone and substance of ties between the two countries. At this point, the only senior US official authorized to talk to Crown Prince Mohammed, who is also minister of defense, is his counterpart, Secretary of Defense General Lloyd Austin III.

What impact the new Biden doctrine toward the crown prince will have on the overall US-Saudi relationship remains to be seen? It seems likely that the relationship will be reduced mostly to formal state-to-state transactions and to avoid an open break which neither side wants.

It is believed that the focal point of the relationship will remain the massive US arms sales to the Saudi kingdom and covert cooperation in demolishing Iran. Since 2010, the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency has notified Congress of US$134 billion arms sales to Saudi Arabia, which has been the most important foreign market for the American defense industry for decades.

The Biden administration has reiterated its commitment to defending Saudi Arabia from foreign aggression and will continue to provide ‘defensive’ arms. However, it has already announced the suspension of ‘offensive’ weapons being used against Houthi rebels, who have seized control of most of Yemen. Forthcoming arms sales to the Kingdom are now under review, presumably to determine which are defensive and which are offensive.

Other than MBS, the most divisive and immediate issue in US-Saudi relations is how to deal with Iran, the kingdom’s arch rival for regional primacy. Iran has proven itself to be the most serious military threat after demonstrating its ability to amass drones and cruise missiles to knock out nearly half of the kingdom’s oil production for several weeks in September 2019.

Biden has begun charting a diplomacy initiative to entice Iran back into the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Acton (JCPOA). This will certainly lead to even more discord in the fraught US-Saudi relationship. The two countries no longer see the personal ties bonding US and Saudi leaders had enjoyed in the past.

Turkish exports to Saudi Arabia coming to grind halt

An unofficial Saudi boycott of Turkish goods reduced Turkey’s exports to the Kingdom to a record low in January 2021, despite diplomatic efforts to mend ties between the two countries. Turkish exports to Saudi Arabia dropped by a remarkable 92% in January, from US$221 million to just US$16 million YoY, according to data released by the Turkish Exporters Union (TIM).

Last year, Riyadh ramped up its efforts targeting the Turkish economy after a Turkish court’s decision to accept two separate indictments against Saudi officials said to be involved in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul in October 2018.

Relations between the two regional powerhouses have been at a low since the murder of the Saudi journalist, whose killing is believed by the CIA to have been ordered by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Since October, the Saudi government has been systematically pressuring local businesses not to trade with Turkish companies and to drop their goods from their shelves.

The statistics indicate a steady slowdown in Turkish exports since then. As a result, Turkey’s annual exports to Saudi Arabia decreased by 24% in 2020, to US$2.3 billion from US$3.1 billion.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last year tried to remedy the situation by talking to Saudi King Salman, and both agreed to hold consultations on the issue.

However, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu’s first meeting with his Saudi counterpart Faisal bin Farhan in November 2020 ultimately failed to change the situation.

 “We have agreed to have a second meeting to discuss the problems,” one senior Turkish official said, speaking anonymously, at the time. Since then, no second meeting has taken place.

Burak Onder, a Turkish houseware and kitchenware manufacturer and exporter, told Turkish media that exports to Saudi Arabia had come to almost a complete halt because goods that had been sent to the country had been held in customs for months without any official explanation.

One senior Turkish trade ministry official, speaking anonymously, told Middle East Eye that from time to time the Saudis would release exports held in the customs after official interventions, but the general problem was still ongoing.

Turkish officials have been considerably muted over the Khashoggi murder and other issues of friction with Riyadh, such as Ankara's relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood, since last year.

"We don't have any issue other than the Khashoggi affair, which we have done as much as we could to resolve," a Turkish official said last November. "It is time to move on."

Saudi American relations may strangulate over Biden's position on Khashoggi

Questions are being raised regarding the fate of relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States under President Joe Biden whose incoming administration has vowed to uncover the circumstances behind the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

Avril Haines, had pledged to declassify the intelligence report on the murder of Khashoggi, a columnist for the Washington Post, and to present it to Congress. Avril Haines has been confirmed Director of National intelligence Wednesday evening, making her the first official member of President Joe Biden’s Cabinet. Before adjourning for the evening, the Senate voted 84 to 10 on Haines’ confirmation.

"Yes, I will abide by the law, "Haines said during a Senate hearing on 19th January 2021, in response to a question from Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., about whether she would submit a report to Congress, if appointed director of national intelligence.

Salman Al-Ansari, founder and president of the Washington-based Saudi American Public Relation Affairs Committee, told The Media Line that the Saudi judicial system has said its final word on the Khashoggi case.

“The relations of Riyadh and Washington are too strong to be affected by irrational media populism,” Al-Ansari said.

He said that the issue of the Khashoggi murder is being raised by lobbyists that are hostile to the Saudi kingdom, who don’t care about America's basic interests in the Middle East.

Saudi authorities have charged 11 suspects in the killing but have not disclosed their names. Five who went on trial in secret proceedings were sentenced to the death penalty for “ordering and committing the crime.” They were later officially forgiven by Khashoggi’s children, sparing them execution. In addition, two senior officials, Saud al-Qahtani, a key adviser to the Saudi crown prince; and Ahmad Asiri, Deputy Chief of Saudi intelligence, were fired although they were not part of the team that traveled to Istanbul.

Suleiman al-Ogaily, an analyst, writer and member of the board of directors of the Saudi Society for Political Science, told The Media Line that the promises made by US administrations during election campaigns are not necessarily the policy adopted by the administration when it takes power.

“I believe that the Saudi-American relations are strategic, and they will not be shaken by the divergence of views on some issues,” al-Ogaily said.

“Riyadh is an important geopolitical and geostrategic force that has its regional and international status. And any rotation in its alliances and international policies will change the face of the region,” al-Ogaily said.

In 2017, President Donald Trump and Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz signed a series of letters of intent allowing the kingdom to purchase US$110 billion in arms immediately from the United States, and another US$350 billion in arms purchases over 10 years.

In 2019, Congress asked Director of National Intelligence to reveal who ordered the killing of Khashoggi, but he declined to do so, insisting that the information must be kept confidential. Later, Congress approved a legal amendment requiring the Trump administration to provide a full report on those responsible for the crime, but Trump did not respond to the demand.

The United States imposed sanctions on 17 Saudis over the Khashoggi murder, but many congressmen accused the Trump administration of seeking to "protect" Saudi Arabia from accountability.

Robert Mogielnicki, resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, told The Media Line that the new Biden Administration is likely to pressure the Saudis to implement additional changes “beyond the goodwill garnered from Gulf reconciliation efforts.”

“Some in the Biden administration and many Democrats in Congress will want to see positive movement on Saudi involvement in Yemen and the human rights record in the kingdom,” he said.

Mogielnicki said that Biden’s foreign policy priority will be Iran. “The Saudis will want to be part of this foreign affairs portfolio, but the level of their involvement is going to depend on how relations with the new administration unfold,” he said.

“Although the early days of Saudi-US ties may be stormy, the Saudis are not in unchartered waters. The Saudis know Joe Biden, and he knows the Saudis. They will ultimately find a way to work together in a number of areas over the next four years,” he added.