Pezeshkian to focus Makran coast development

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian announced a major initiative to develop Iran's Makran coast, stating that necessary coordination has been made to employ top international consultants to prepare a comprehensive plan and roadmap for the development of the Makran region.

Speaking at a cabinet meeting on Wednesday, Pezeshkian emphasized the need to catch up with neighboring countries in exploiting the Makran coast's potential, aiming to "achieve a superior position in the region in line with the goals of the 20-Year Vision Document." 

He highlighted the lack of a previous overarching plan, noting, “We have not had a comprehensive and all-encompassing plan as a roadmap for the development of Makran, and various bodies have taken actions based on their missions and responsibilities in this regard.” 

Pezeshkian described the Makran coast as “the most important foundation for sustainable and long-term development in Iran,” asserting that the country's future is inextricably linked to its development. 

The new plan, he explained, will follow thorough studies and assessments to define the responsibilities of administrative bodies and ensure coordinated action.

The strategic importance of the Makran coast, located on the Oman Sea, has been underscored by Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Al Khamenei, prompting significant attention from Iranian decision-makers and military officials.

The Makran coast provides Iran with access to vital shipping lanes and crucial maritime trade routes connecting the Indian Ocean to the Persian Gulf.

 

Iran: Biggest loser after Assad’s fall

Among the central factors that led to the ouster of Bashar al Assad was Iranian and Russian decisions not to intervene yet again to prop him up. While Syria’s trajectory remains highly uncertain, its post-Assad posture is likely to be inimical to both the countries.    

Tehran had long used Syria as vector to project influence in the region and marshalled significant resources and manpower to keep Assad in power when the Syrian civil war erupted in 2011.

Moscow similarly saw its ties with Assad as a source of regional influence, and its 2015 intervention in Syria was decisive in Assad maintaining his stranglehold on power.

But with Russia bogged down in Ukraine, and Iran — and its allies like Hezbollah — severely weakened by the post October 07, 2023 conflict with Israel, neither patron was willing to rescue Assad once again.

USIP’s Garrett Nada explains what Assad’s ouster means for Iran: 

The toppling of the Assad regime is a major loss for Iran, which has not been so isolated or vulnerable in the region since the 1980-1988 war with Iraq. Syria was Iran’s only close state ally in the Middle East. It was a frontline against Iran’s archenemy Israel and the linchpin of Tehran’s ability to project power in the Levant. For four decades, Syria was the main conduit for Iran’s supply of weapons and equipment to Hezbollah in Lebanon, which became the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor.

Iran’s extensive support to Assad during the Syrian civil war, which broke out in 2011, reflected the country’s importance for Tehran’s regional strategy. Iran deployed thousands of military advisers and troops, mobilized tens of thousands of foreign Shiite fighters from as far away as Afghanistan and Pakistan to bolster regime forces, and organized a new Syrian paramilitary and provided billions of dollars in aid. Iran’s efforts, coupled with Russian air support, helped keep Assad in control of much of Syria until late 2024.  

Iranian officials quickly accepted the fate of the Assad regime despite all the blood and treasure invested. “It is the Syrian people who must decide on the future of their country and its political and governmental system,” President Masoud Pezeshkian said on December 08, 2024.

Iran’s foreign ministry expressed a willingness to engage with a new government. “The Iranian and Syrian nations have always had long-standing and friendly relationship,” it said on December 08.

“It is expected that this relationship will continue with a wise and forward-looking approach by both nations, based on mutual interests and adherence to international legal obligations.”

Iran asked HTS to protect Shiite holy sites in Syria, and HTS confirmed that it would protect the Sayyida Zeinab shrine in Damascus.

Yet Iran’s future relationship with Syria is dubious. Many of the players poised to play key roles in the transition hold Iran responsible for propping up the brutal Assad regime.

“This new triumph, my brothers, marks a new chapter in the history of the region, a history fraught with dangers (that left) Syria as a playground for Iranian ambitions, spreading sectarianism, stirring corruption,” Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al Sham, said in his victory speech on December 08.

On the same day, Iran’s embassy in Damascus, previously evacuated, was vandalized and looted. Posters of the supreme leader and other Iranians were torn and discarded on the floor.

The fall of Assad may push Iran to reconsider its “forward defense” strategy. For decades, Iran has relied on the “Axis of Resistance,” including Syria and militia allies across region, to pressure Israel and deter strikes on Iranian soil. The goal was to keep conflicts far from Iran’s borders. But the axis already faced severe setbacks before Assad’s departure.

Israel significantly weakened both Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon during the war that erupted after the Hamas-led October 07 terrorist attacks. Israeli forces killed senior leaders and thousands of fighters and degraded both groups’ abilities to wage war. Iran will face significant logistical challenges to resupplying Hezbollah without the Syrian land bridge.

Meanwhile, Iran lacks credible mechanisms to deter Israel. Tehran launched unprecedented direct attacks on Israel, one in April 2024 including 170 drones, at least 30 cruise missiles, and more than 120 ballistic missiles, and one in October 2024 including more than 180 ballistic missiles. But neither caused significant damage or dissuaded Israel from launching counterattacks, the second of which crippled Iran’s air defenses and damaged missile production capabilities.

The remaining members of the “Axis of Resistance” are not much help in terms of deterring Israel. The Houthis in Yemen have proven resilient despite attacks by the US and Israel but have only carried out sporadic long-range missile and drone attacks.

The Iraqi militias backed by Iran, such as Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, are also relatively peripheral and have not caused much damage to Israeli targets.

With limited options, a growing number of Iranian officials have called for revising the country’s nuclear doctrine to allow the production of nuclear weapons. As of late 2024, Iran could produce enough highly enriched uranium to fuel one nuclear bomb in as little as one or two weeks.

Tehran would need several months or more than a year to assemble a warhead and marry it to a delivery system, such as a ballistic missile. But moving to weaponize would come with its own serious risks.

 

How would WTO brace Donald Trump?

The World Trade Organization (WTO) held the last of its 2024 meetings this week, and for anyone rooting for the institution to conclude long-discussed agreements just ahead of its 30th anniversary, the results were a little hard to watch. Here’s a recap of what came out of gatherings of the WTO’s General Council and its Dispute Settlement Body.

Here’s a recap of what came out of gatherings of the WTO’s General Council and its Dispute Settlement Body:

·        Dispute settlement reform was unresolved and there was a pledge to continue talking next year

·        On the second fisheries agreement, India and Indonesia were granted more time to air their concerns. “Fish 2” was at the decision stage but was demoted to a “discussion” item

·        India, South Africa and Turkey blocked a deal known as Investment Facilitation for Development. That left it short of the needed consensus, even though 126 members backed its incorporation into WTO bylaws

·        Progress was made on two administrative issues: picking dates for the next ministerial conference (March 26-29, 2026, in Cameroon) and approval of WTO Secretariat pension reforms

Newly re-appointed Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala tried to maintain a positive outlook, saying she hopes members return in the new year with a “spirit of compromise, ready to do deals.”

For an organization that needs everyone to agree, that’s going to be a challenge when US President-elect Donald Trump takes office January 20, 2025. His threatened tariffs and “America First” trade agenda run counter to the mission of the Geneva based WTO.

Trump promised 60% duties on Chinese imports and at least 10% for the rest of the world. In November, he threatened to impose further 10% tariffs on Beijing and 25% on Mexico and Canada if they fail to stop the flow of fentanyl and undocumented migrants to the US.

All of that violates the commitments that more than 160 nations make to join the WTO, said Bill Reinsch, a Commerce Department official during the Clinton administration and now a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Trump is known to dislike multilateral institutions, having withdrawn the US from a trade deal for the Indo-Pacific, the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization in his first term.

He could quit the WTO, too. Or he could stay in it, heap more scorn on the rules-based international order and ignore other countries complaining about Washington’s protectionism.

In Trump’s first term, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer watched the WTO’s appellate body grind to a standstill by preventing the appointment of new judges as terms expired, leaving it short of the number needed to function.

This week Biden administration delegates blocked a move by 130 WTO member countries that called for a restart of the process to fill vacancies on the appellate body — the 82nd time that that proposal failed.

The outlook for the WTO to free itself of paralysis under the incoming Trump administration isn’t favorable. 

Jamieson Greer, Trump’s nominee for USTR, was a close adviser to Lighthizer. His views on WTO relevancy are unclear, but he did say in testimony in May that “efforts to hold China accountable under WTO dispute mechanisms were largely unfruitful.”

The WTO also irked some Trump allies by accelerating the process this year of approving Okonjo-Iweala for another four-year term at its helm.

That was “almost certainly designed to prevent the incoming Trump administration from having a say in the matter,” said Dennis Shea, Trump’s ambassador to the WTO in his first term.

“The WTO already has diminished reputation in the United States,” he said. “This unprecedented action only diminishes it further.”

According to a Geneva-based trade source, Trump’s name wasn’t mentioned during this week’s General Council session.

Courtesy: Bloomberg

Mari Petroleum Company downgraded

One of Pakistan’s leading brokerage houses, Intermarket Securities has downgraded its stance on Mari Petroleum Company (MARI) from Neutral to Sell. The recent rally of 169% in FYTD has more than priced in the potential upside from new fields and production growth.

Recent discovery in the much-hyped Waziristan block (Bannu West) is likely to commence production by the end of FY25. While the market has high hopes from the block, the brokerage house has assumed initial production of 70mmcfd which could rise to 250mmcfd by FY28.

Following the rally of 91% over the past two months, the stock seems overvalued. MARI has more than priced in the positives while the market has disregarded that near-term earnings will decline due to additional royalty on Mari D&P.

The updated earnings estimates for FY25and FY26 stand at PKR57.00 and PKR62.07, respectively. The Sell stance reflects the view that the recent rally appears to have overestimated the positives, in particular the potential of its recent discoveries.

The recent rally seems to have been partly driven by speculation surrounding potential heavy mineral resource discoveries and the company’s rebranding to "MARI Energy," though no concrete developments have yet materialized. Furthermore, high expectations around Bannu West remain unrealized, adding to the downside risk.

MARI, in partnership with OGDC and another E&P (OPL), has made a significant discovery in the Waziristan block (Bannu West), reporting a cumulative find of 70mmcfd from two exploratory wells, Shewa-1 and Shewa-2. A third exploratory-cum-appraisal well is currently in the drilling phase.

While market expectations for the block remain elevated, the brokerage house estimates production to commence by the end of FY25 with initial flows of 70mmcfd, gradually peaking at 250mmcfd by FY28. However, the market’s exuberance appears overdone: the present stock price of PKR729/ share would be justified by production of 600mmcfd from Bannu West—almost similar to the Mari field. This disconnect between expectations and realistic production forecasts underpins the Sell call on the stock.  

 

Need for unity among Muslim countries

A senior military adviser to the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, has proposed that unity among Muslim nations could play a transformative role in reshaping global dynamics.

“The convergence and unity of Muslim countries, forming a Muslim power bloc, is the only way to liberate Muslim nations from the hegemony of global arrogance, particularly the United States and Israel,” Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi asserted.  

The Iranian general accused the United States and Israel of being key drivers of instability, war, and human suffering across the region and the globe.

Safavi argued that Muslim nations must prioritize sustainable security, regional peace, and self-reliance to achieve true progress and independence.  

Safavi emphasized that the world is undergoing a profound geopolitical transformation, leading to the emergence of a new global order.

Speaking on the subject, he stated, “The current world is in a geopolitical transitional phase, and we are witnessing the shaping of a new world order on both regional and international scales.”  

According to Safavi, this evolving order is marked by the gradual decline of Western dominance and the rise of Eastern powers. He explained, “The global power system is slowly but surely shifting from the West to the East.”  

Safavi highlighted the growing influence of Asian and Eurasian powers, such as China, India, Russia, and Iran.

He noted that these nations are increasingly collaborating within frameworks like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS to challenge the unilateral dominance of the United States and its NATO allies.

Their objectives, he said, include reducing global reliance on the US dollar in trade and countering Western-centric policies.  

The general also underscored the chaotic state of the world, attributing recent conflicts and wars to a 200-year long struggle among global and regional powers for political, economic, and cultural dominance over strategically significant regions.  

He stressed the need for greater collaboration and recognition among Muslim countries, stressing that their collective efforts could pave the way for a stronger, unified presence on the global stage.

 

 

JCPOA no longer relevant, says IAEA chief

Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has said that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is no longer viable, appearing to place sole responsibility for the 2015 nuclear deal's lame-duck state on Iran.

"The philosophy of the initial JCPOA agreement can be used as a basis, but the agreement itself is no longer necessary," Grossi remarked during his visit to Italy for discussions with the Foreign Ministry. 

The UN nuclear chief pointed out that Iran is now enriching uranium to levels of 60%, a threshold that he said brings the country close to the capability to produce military-grade uranium, which requires enrichment to 90%. "Iran is rapidly approaching the status of a nuclear state," he claimed. 

Grossi omitted any mention of the West's abandonment of the deal, the factor that prompted Iran to curtail some of its JCPOA commitments in the first place. 

The JCPOA was signed in 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 group of countries (the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China). It aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the termination of sanctions.

Washington unilaterally withdrew from the pact in 2018 and re-imposed sanctions against Iran. European signatories to the deal not only failed to take the sting out of US sanctions but also came up with anti-Iran bans of their own. 

Tehran began to scale back on some of its JCPOA commitments in 2020, under a new law passed by the Iranian parliament. 
 

 

 

Israel occupies vast land of Syria

According to the Hebrew media Israeli military has occupied more than 370 square kilometers of Syria that is larger than the besieged Gaza Strip. 

On Tuesday, it was reported that Israeli infantry was advancing in some neighborhoods of the city of Hader in Quneitra province, southwestern Syria.

The Israeli news television channel i24 NEWS stated that Israeli ground forces destroyed Syrian army military sites and assets in southern Syria.

The Israeli news outlet indicated that the activity was approved by the necessary levels and carried out with the assistance of armored battalions deployed in the region and infantry fighters.

According to the Israeli military correspondent Yinon Shalom Yitah, the operation targeted military infrastructure belonging to the Syrian army.

Since the fall of the Syrian president, the Israeli army continues to seize territory, after occupying Jabal Sheikh (Mount Hermon) and the buffer zone in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights.

The occupation forces are now only 15 kilometers away from the international highway between Damascus and Beirut.

They have also seized the most significant freshwater sources in southern Syria, located along the Yarmouk River. 

For decades, a large portion of Syrian households and businesses have relied on these basins along the Yarmouk River for sanitized water supplies. 

The Israeli occupation continues its attacks on military positions to neutralize Syria’s combat capability. 

The Israeli army claimed that its attacks over the past few days have “severely damaged Syria’s air defense system,” destroying “more than 90% of strategic surface-to-air missiles.”

Meanwhile, Israeli occupation forces continue a ground invasion into southern Syria, expanding its control over new Syrian villages along the border with Lebanon.

Israeli occupation forces have brought in engineering equipment towards the slopes of Jabal Sheikh (Mount Hermon) in a bid to dig trenches and prevent any potential connection with Lebanese territories.