The alliance between the ruling PML-N and its ‘junior
partner’, the PPP, is a testament to the power of politics to bring the foes of
yesteryear together against a common foe.
The first time they were compelled to join hands was under
the umbrella of the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (ARD), following
the 1999 military coup by General Pervez Musharraf. With both Nawaz Sharif and
Benazir Bhutto in exile, the job of keeping the peace fell on Nawabzada
Nasrullah Khan’s shoulders — and it was no easy job.
Then, in May 2006, the two sides came together to sign the
36-point Charter of Democracy in London — regretting their past actions and
agreeing on a number of constitutional measures to strengthen democracy in the
country.
The outcome of that charter was the smooth transition of
power from assemblies under Musharraf to a democratically-elected government in
2008 — an assembly that actually completed its five-year term without being
rudely interrupted. Although the PML-N initially joined the PPP cabinet for a
brief period, it exited the ruling coalition within months after differences
over the restoration of judges deposed by the Musharraf regime.
Analysts believe ‘the common adversary’ will compel both
parties to stay part of the alliance, held together with the establishment’s
support
Imran Khan’s victory in the 2018 elections saw both parties
facing the brunt of what the government of the day saw as accountability. This
common foe galvanized the two parties, which found themselves together on the
opposition benches.
And when the opportunity to unseat the PTI regime through a
vote of no-confidence emerged, both sides banded together with other, smaller
parties to form the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) alliance that saw out
the term of the assemblies until last year’s long-overdue polls were held.
In the wake of last year’s elections, though the PPP became
a major part of the alliance of parties that coalesced to form the incumbent
ruling setup, it has refused to be bracketed as a coalition partner of the
federal government. This is despite the fact that it controls provincial
governments in Sindh and Balochistan, and several key constitutional offices —
such as the presidency, the Senate chairmanship and the governor houses of
Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa — have been given to the party in exchange for
its support.
Politicians — including leaders from both parties — as well
as political analysts believe that the presence of a common adversary — Imran
Khan — will compel the country’s two main parties to put aside their
differences and collaborate to maintain the present set-up, with the backing of
the establishment, which is playing a crucial role in holding this unlikely
alliance together.
For the PPP, this comes at the cost of having to make many
compromises and support some unpopular decisions of the present regime, even to
the extent of ignoring dissenting voices emanating from within its own ranks.
In background discussions, many observers said they believed
the PPP was prepared to do all of this to ensure that its chairman, Bilawal
Bhutto-Zardari, would become the next prime minister whenever the country goes
into elections next, as this is only possible only if he remains in the ‘good
books’ of those that matter.
In the wake of the February 08, 2024 polls, the PML-N made
many attempts to woo the PPP to formally join the federal government, with PM
Shehbaz Sharif even delaying the formation of his cabinet in the hope that the
PPP might change its mind.
There was pressure on PM Shehbaz from within his own party
to have the PPP in the federal cabinet at all cost, as was the case in the PDM
era. This, they reasoned, would help them share the fallout from “difficult decisions”
which the present setup would inevitably have to take in order to seek a
bailout package from the IMF. But while the PPP has continued to resist the
offer, it has silently endorsed all the actions of the ruling party.
In the words of political analyst Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, it is
the common enemy — the PTI — which is forcing the PPP to cooperate with the
PML-N in sustaining the federal government. “The establishment has provided the
necessary glue to keep this cooperation going,” he said.
Mehboob, who heads the Pakistan Institute of Legislative
Development and Transparency, said the PPP probably thought that by maintaining
its distance, the party could protect itself from the fallout of unpopular
decisions taken by the PML-N-led federal government.
“If we look closely, we can already see an early election
campaign, as the two parties are busy projecting their respective potential
candidates for the PM — Bilawal from the PPP and Maryam Nawaz from the PML-N
side,” he said.
According to Mehboob, the uneasy alliance between the two
parties would continue till the establishment’s binding force lasts and the PPP
finds an opportune time to be in a position to win the next general election at
the center. However, he said, such a situation may not arise very soon.
In the meantime, he said, the PPP would continue to put
pressure and extract as much benefits from the federal government as possible
in return for sustaining the present set-up. “One should not rule out the
possibility of a coalition federal government of the PPP, the PTI and even the
PML-N whenever the stars align.”
The first signs of trouble emerged at the time of the
presentation of the federal budget in June 2024, when the PPP complained that
it was not taken onboard in the preparation of the budget, forcing Sharif to
proactively engage the party. It was at this time when the nation came to know
that there had been a written agreement between the two parties regarding
power-sharing, the details of which are still not known to the public.
After voting for the budget, the PPP again started
complaining that it has not been taken on board by the PML-N on key national
issues and important legislation. But despite constantly expressing its
reservations over a number of government actions, the party extended
unconditional support to the PML-N, enabling it to bulldoze a number of crucial
pieces of legislation through parliament, including the extension of the
tenures of the three services chiefs.
Then, days after the PPP chairman played a key role in
securing the passage of the much-hyped 26th Constitution Amendment that altered
the shape of the judiciary, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari publicly expressed annoyance
with the government over a lack of coordination, accusing them of reneging on
its promises by not ensuring equal representation for both parties in the
newly-empowered Judicial Commission of Pakistan (JCP).
Since then, committees formed by the two sides to iron out
their differences have held many rounds of discussion. After each huddle, both
come out with the same old mantra of “all is well” within the ruling coalition,
even though we all know that is clearly not the case.
According to snippets gleaned from whatever has been
reported about their agreement so far, the PML-N government in Punjab was
supposed to take the PPP onboard for major administrative decisions and
transfers and postings in two districts — Multan and Rahim Yar Khan — where the
PPP has a stronghold. It was also agreed that the PPP would be given a due
share in development schemes in the province.
But practically, PPP leaders claimed, the PML-N seemed to
have changed its mind, with Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz proving to be
the main hurdle in the implementation of the accord.
Responding to this gripe, Punjab Information Minister Azma
Bokhari insisted that Maryam followed a “merit-based policy”, and posited that
when some 200 PML-N lawmakers don’t get a say in transfers and postings, how
could the PPP demand such a boon with its 10 MPAs in Punjab.
Talking to Dawn, a senior PPP leader confirmed that
there was a strong group, comprising mostly members from the Punjab, which was
quite unhappy over the present arrangement. He said that in recent meetings,
they had apprised Bhutto-Zardari about the actions taken by the PML-N in the
past to suppress and marginalize the party.
Members from Punjab, he said, were of the view that the PPP
could not see a resurgence in the most-populous province until it disassociated
itself from the PML-N. The party chairman, however, has advised members to wait
for an “appropriate time”, while continuing to raise their voices in
parliament.
The PPP has publicly criticized the PML-N’s various
governments on a number of issues. Firstly, it was the power subsidy program to
provide relief to lifeline consumers during peak summer season. The criticism
was no doubt prompted by pressure from Sindh constituents to announce a similar
step.
Initially, it was only the PPP’s Punjab chapter that
simmered with resentment over the leadership’s decision to join the ruling
coalition under the PML-N. However, when the corporate farming initiative of
the federal government and its decision to draw more canals from the Indus
River came to light, it gave the PPP more ammunition with which to attack its
ruling partner.
The plan to irrigate the Cholistan region of south Punjab
with what Sindh views as its share of water prompted a strong reaction from
Sindh’s political circles, forcing the party to reject the plan in unequivocal
terms.
M. B. Soomro, a senior Islamabad-based journalist from
Sindh, maintains that for the time being, there is no option before both
parties but to stay together. The PPP, he said, was under fire in its home
province of Sindh, but at the same time it could not afford to exit the ruling
coalition, either. He said the party had perhaps not been able to gauge the
on-ground situation in its home province, for which it might have to pay a
heavy price, if it fails to satisfy the agitating nationalist forces.
Soomro referred to the contents of a recent handout, issued
by the Presidency after a recent meeting between President Asif Ali Zardari and
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on December 23, 2024. It stated that President
Zardari had “assured the PM of his continued support and cooperation for the
country`s progress and stability.”
The meeting had taken place amid an environment of acrimony
and reports that last week, key PPP leaders had expressed a lack of confidence
in the federal government.
“Had there been no compulsion, the PPP would have opted to
sit on the opposition benches till now,” said Soomro, who has been covering
politics and parliament for more than two decades.
According to him, “The establishment has been playing the
role of a bridge between the two parties and their alliance is necessary to
maintain the present system”, adding that the present set-up would continue
until “the real powers find an alternative.”
Courtesy: Dawn
