Pakistan: 200bps cut in policy rate anticipated

Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is scheduled to meet on November 04, 2024 for adjustment in policy rate

According to a poll conducted by Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, Topline Securities, 85% of the participants expect that the central bank will announce a minimum rate cut of 200bps.

Out of these 63% expect the interest rate to be cut by 200bps, 30% expect a cut of 250bps, while 8% anticipate a cut of more than 250bps.

The brokerage house believes that the larger rate cut expectations in the upcoming monetary policy meetings are driven by the single-digit inflation reading of 6.9% in September 2024, which is expected to continue in October 2024 within a range of 6.5% to 7.0%.

Significant fall in YoY inflation in recent months is on the back of faster food disinflation and downward electricity prices adjustments (FCA).

The brokerage house is also of the view that the SBP will announce a rate cut of 200bps, similar to the cut of 200bps in the last monetary policy meeting, taking total cut to 650bps.

This will be 4th consecutive cut of this cycle.

Post this rate cut of 200bps, real interest rates will remain at +860bps, still higher than Pakistan’s historic average of 200-300bps.

In order to absorb any external and budgetary shock, the brokerage house believes, Central bank will continue to keep positive real rate in range of 300 to 400bps in medium terms over forward looking inflation.

6-minth KIBOR and 6-months T-Bills are down 324-359 bps from last MPC meeting.

Falling inflation expectations, the 6M KIBOR and Treasury bills rate are down 324-359bps since last monetary policy meeting on September 12, 2024 and currently hovering at 14.43% and 13.8%, respectively. This also suggest, market participants are expecting a big rate cut in upcoming meetings.

The brokerage house expects policy rate to come down to 13% by Jun 2025 with average inflation expectation of 7%for FY25.

 

Pakistan: Central Bank Reduces Policy Rate

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced its monetary policy statement today (September 12, 2024) decreasing the policy rate by 200bps to 17.5%. After the announcement, the SBP Governor made the following remarks in the analyst briefing:

The SBP's policy rate decision is influenced by a greater than expected decline in inflation and favorable trends in global oil and food prices. However, given the uncertain nature of these developments, the committee has adopted a cautious stance.

Real interest rates remain sufficiently positive to achieve the SBP's medium-term inflation target of up to 7%.

The SBP is not focused on a specific interest rate level but considers various factors, including the external account and future inflation, when making rate decisions.

Governor was hopeful that the IMF board will review Pakistan’s agenda for the approval of the 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program this month, as the government has secured all required external financing assurances.

Moving forward, the SBP will publish semi-annual data on central bank interventions in currency markets, as well as projections for foreign exchange reserves and upcoming debt obligations over the next six months.

Data on currency market interventions will be published with a three-month lag due to the sensitivity of the information.

In June 2024, the SBP purchased US$573 million from the open market.

By the end of March 2025, country’s foreign exchange reserves are projected to reach US$12.0 billion despite debt repayments.

The government is obligated to pay US$14.2 billion by March 2025, of which US$8.3 billion will be rolled over, while the remaining amount consists of debt repayments.

To date, the government has cleared US$4 billion in debt, including US$2.3 billion in rollovers. The remaining debt repayments of US$5.8 billion will be spread evenly until March 2025.

For FY24, the government has US$26 billion in debt obligations, including US$12 billion in rollovers and US$4 billion in commercial bilateral loans, which are also expected to be rolled over.

Of the US$8.3 billion repayments due this year, US$1.7 billion has already been settled.

According to audited accounts, the SBP earned a profit of PKR2.5 trillion in FY24 and is expected to disburse this amount as a dividend to the government in the coming days.

Non-oil imports are at levels seen in FY22 and early FY23, with the reduction primarily driven by a significant decline in oil imports.

 

 

Pakistan: Central bank remains cautious ahead of some key milestones

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) maintained the policy rate at 22% for the seventh consecutive meeting. Despite considerable disinflation in February, the SBP chose to remain cautious. There remain risks to future inflation – from further increases in administrated prices (of energy) and tax measures in the FY25 budget could be inflationary. The decision was in line with market consensus.

Key reasons for the decision:

The outlook for GDP growth – in the range of 2-3% in FY24 – remains intact and is largely driven by the rebound in the agricultural sector (which does not respond to monetary policy), while the LSM growth has recently turned positive (down a moderate 0.5% YoY in 7MFY24).

Core inflation (urban), which had hitherto been sticky, fell to 18% in February from 20.5% in the earlier month, while urban wages growth has also slowed in recent months. Nonetheless, headline inflation remains elevated and warrants a cautious stance.

The external account has improved considerably as well. Current Account balance during July-January period was US$1.1 billion only, as compared to US$3.8 billion for the same period last year. This was mainly on the back of contraction in imports, down 11% YoY in 7MFY24 amid a slowing economy (also partly due to lack of flood induced imports last year).

Primary balance improved to 1.7% of GDP in 1HFY24 from 1.1% for the same period last year, on the back of strong growth in revenues and contained expenditure. The SBP considers the continuation of current fiscal consolidation as important to support the present monetary policy stance.

The decision was largely expected and thus will lead to a muted response from the equity and money markets.

Trends in the above macro indicators are encouraging and could support a first cut in rates in the April 2024.

However, a key factor for future monetary policy will be talks with the IMF for a new program, which may commence at the IMF-World Bank Spring meetings due 19-21 April 2024.

That will shape the FY25 Budget and whether the IMF demands further adjustments in energy prices and exchange rate during the negotiations.

 

 

De-dollarizing transactions among ACU members

Governor of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) held talks with senior banking officials from various Asian countries on the sideline of the 51st Asian Clearing Union (ACU) summit in order to encourage getting new members and de-dollarize the economic transactions among ACU members.

As reported by the CBI portal, Mohammad-Reza Farzin met and held talks with Governor of the Central Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan Jameel Ahmed, Deputy Head of the Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis Directorate of the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Sergey Kalechits on the sidelines of the summit held in Tehran on May 23-24.

In the meeting with Nabiullina, the two sides emphasized strengthening trade exchanges and using the national currencies of the two countries in bilateral trade.

During the talks with the Belarusian delegation, Farzin said strengthening relations through bilateral and multilateral monetary agreements is a model that can play an important role in the development of trade relations between two countries.

Referring to Belarus’ readiness to join the ACU, the CBI head said, “Belarus's membership with its good capacities in its economy can lead to the development of the activities of this union.”

In the meeting with Farzin, Ahmed, the governor of the State Bank of Pakistan, welcomed the development of the banking relations with Iran by creating a non-SWIFT platform for connecting the bank systems of the two countries and clearing trade under the framework of the Asian Clearing Union and said, “We are ready for the development of banking relations. By introducing representative banks and creating a joint working group, we will provide the grounds for deepening banking relations.”

According to Farzin, accepting new members with the aim of creating synergy and diversifying the currency basket of the union can encourage de-dollarization in trade exchanges among the ACU members. This is one of the major goals of this union in the future, he said.

 

Pakistan: Central bank Justifies decline in remittances and export proceeds

There has been a narration in print and electronic media suggesting that capping the price of US$ caused loss of US$3 billion in remittances and export proceeds. State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) termed that the view was incorrect due to a number of factors.

First, export of goods have been facing headwinds due to moderating demand in international markets as most of Pakistan’s major trading partners are going through a period of monetary tightening. For instance, US Fed increased interest rate to 4.5% to date from 0.25% in March 2022; suggesting a noticeable global monetary tightening.

Meanwhile, inflation has been significantly higher in developed world, eating into the purchasing power of consumers. These, together with domestic factors like devastating floods and ensuing supply disruptions, have negatively impacted exports. In this backdrop, linking decline in exports to relatively stable exchange rate is not appropriate, said SBP.

Second, workers’ remittances were gradually tapering off from all time high level of US$3.1 billion achieved in April 2022 due to Eid related flows. This decline is primarily attributed to global economic slowdown as higher inflation in developed countries has led to higher cost of living abroad, thus reducing the surplus funds that could be sent back to homeland as remittances.

Moreover, with the resumption of international travel post COVID, some remittances have switched back to FCY cash transfers via overseas Pakistanis travelling to Pakistan.

Thus the decline in Pakistan’s exports and remittances is a result of numbers of exogenous factors and domestic reasons and it wouldn’t be appropriate to ascribe it to exchange rate only.

Pakistan: Banking sector posts robust performance during H1CY22

Banking sector has shown robust performance and steady resilience during H1CY22, says Mid-Year Performance Review of the sector by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

The review covers the performance and soundness of the banking sector for the period January-June 2022 (H1CY22). It also covers the performance of financial markets and Microfinance banks (MFBs) as well as the results of Systemic Risk Survey (SRS), which represents independent respondents’ views about key risks to financial stability.

The Review reveals that sustained economic activity during H1CY22 supported the expansion of banking sector balance sheet by 16% during H1CY22. Substantial increase in the asset base was mainly driven by the flows of private sector advances and increase in investments, particularly the Government securities.

Besides sizable mobilization of deposits, banks’ reliance on borrowings increased significantly to finance the expanded balance sheet.

The pace of private sector advances growth during H1CY22 was the highest in comparable periods of previous three years. Improved manufacturing activity, as reflected in double digit growth in Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) index during H1CY22, higher input prices and SBP’s refinance schemes augmented the overall flow of advances. Individuals and sugar sector availed major chunk of financing followed by textile sector.

Besides noteworthy growth, banks’ asset quality indicators further improved. Gross Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) ratio moved down to 7.5% by end June 2022, from 7.9% at end December 2021. However, recent catastrophic flooding in many parts of the country may impact the repayment capacity of agri-borrowers of banks’ and Microfinance borrowers.

The Review highlights that baseline profitability indicators moderated — despite strong growth in incomes — mainly due to the impact of sharp increase in tax charges.

Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of the banking sector slightly edged down to 16.1% due to faster growth in asset base and advances. Nonetheless, the ratio remains well above the minimum regulatory requirement of 11.5% and banking sector in general has adequate capital buffers and resilience to withstand the impact of severe stress of macroeconomic conditions and shocks to key risk factors.

The Review also covered the results of 10th wave of SRS (July-2022) based on perceptions of independent market participants. The respondents perceive that the key risks for the financial system are mostly exogenous in nature i.e. global and macroeconomic risks. Majority of the respondents expressed confidence in the stability of the financial system.

Recent catastrophic flooding in many parts of the country may impact the repayment capacity of agri borrowers of banks and microfinance borrowers, and that of other borrowers as a second round effect. As such, banks as well as MFBs need to make prudent assessment of the possible impact on lending portfolios and take necessary measures for maintaining the asset quality and resilience of financial strength of their institutions, the Review adds.

Pakistan: Business leaders term hike in interest rate ‘disastrous for fragile economy’

According to a Dawn newspaper report, the business community of Pakistan has strongly condemned the decision of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to increase the interest rate to 15%.

Trade and industry representatives said the move would prove highly disastrous for industries and the SME sector. They demanded that the government intervene and get the central bank’s decision withdrawn with immediate effect.

Irfan Iqbal Shaikh, President, Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) said he did not understand SBP’s logic in raising the interest rate to 15% at a time when power, gas and petroleum prices, along with looming uncertainty, have already reached new highs.

“The interest rate in Pakistan is three to four times higher than in the region, and in such circumstances, no stakeholder would dare to set up any new industries or go for any vertical expansion of their units,” he said.

“It seems that the government is more focused on dealing with political issues rather than showing any seriousness in tackling the issues of the business community. No planning is being done while the economic situation is getting out of control,” said Shaikh.

FPCCI President urged the government to listen to stakeholders and implement policies that will help the country recover from its economic crisis.

Abdul Rasheed, President, Site Association of Industry (SAI) said while the industry was already perturbed over the interest rate, the SBP has continued to crawl up the policy rate, bringing more trouble in the functioning of the industries.

He said many industries, including the textile sector, have invested billions of dollars in importing machinery in the last three years at a 4 to 4.5% markup rate after obtaining loans from the banks. At the 15% policy rate, industrialists and exporters would stop importing machinery, leading to a suspension in industrial activities besides creating unemployment and a law and order situation.

Muhammad Idrees, President, Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) said the SBP has increased the policy rate under some pressure, which would plunge many industries into a default situation. “The government can make borrowing, but the industries will be unable to take loans,” he added.

“What is the government doing? Will it put the economy on track by taking such decisions? “deplored Ijaz Khokhar, Chief Coordinator, Pakistan Readymade Garments Manufacturers and Exporters questioned the rationale.

“In Sialkot alone, a huge cottage industry (SMEs) comprising around 7,000 small units has been in operation for a long time. So they all would be no more gradually due to the increase in the interest rate at 15% which is already too much higher than our neighbouring countries,” he explained.

In a statement, Haris Ateeq Vice President, Lahore Chamber of Commerce & Industry (LCCI) also condemned the decision, expressing concern that further increases in discount rates would raise the cost of doing business.

 

 

State Bank of Pakistan raises policy rate by 150bps to 13.75 percent

In its meeting on May 23, 2022, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to raise the policy rate by 150 basis points to 13.75%. This action, together with much needed fiscal consolidation, should help moderate demand to a more sustainable pace while keeping inflation expectations anchored and containing risks to external stability.

Since the last MPC meeting, provisional estimates suggest that growth in FY22 has been much stronger than expected. Meanwhile, external pressures remain elevated and the inflation outlook has deteriorated due to both home-grown and international factors.

Domestically, an expansionary fiscal stance this year, exacerbated by the recent energy subsidy package, has fueled demand and lingering policy uncertainty has compounded pressures on the exchange rate. Globally, inflation has intensified due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and renewed supply disruptions caused by the new Covid wave in China.

As a result, almost all central banks across the world are suddenly confronting multi-year high inflation and a challenging outlook.

After contracting by 0.9% in FY20 in the wake of Covid, the economy has rebounded much more strongly than anticipated, growing by 5.7% last year and accelerating to 5.97% this year, as per provisional estimates. At 13.4%YoY, headline inflation unexpectedly rose to a two-year high in April and has now been in double digits for six consecutive months.

Inflation momentum was also elevated, at 1.6%MoM, and core inflation rose further to 10.9% and 9.1% in rural and urban areas, respectively. On the external front, notwithstanding some encouraging moderation in the current account deficit during April, the Rupee depreciated further due both to domestic uncertainty as well as recent strengthening of the US dollar in international markets following tightening by the Federal Reserve.

The MPC’s baseline outlook assumes continued engagement with the IMF, as well as reversal of fuel and electricity subsidies together with normalization of the petroleum development levy (PDL) and GST taxes on fuel during FY23. Under these assumptions, headline inflation is likely to increase temporarily and may remain elevated throughout the next fiscal year. Thereafter, it is expected to fall to the 5 to 7% target range by the end of FY24, driven by fiscal consolidation, moderating growth, normalization of global commodity prices, and beneficial base effects.

Considering the balance of risks around this baseline, the MPC felt it was important to take effective action to anchor inflation expectations and maintain external stability. In addition to today’s policy rate increase, the interest rates on EFS and LTFF loans are also being raised.

Going forward, to strengthen monetary policy transmission, these rates will be linked to the policy rate and will adjust automatically, while continuing to remain below the policy rate in order to incentivize exports. At the same time, the MPC emphasized the urgency of strong and equitable fiscal consolidation to complement today’s monetary tightening actions. This would help alleviate pressures on inflation, market rates and the external account.

Real sector

Unlike most emerging markets, Pakistan experienced a relatively mild contraction after the Covid shock in 2020, followed by a sustained and vigorous rebound. As a result, output is now above its pre-pandemic trend, such that tightening of macroeconomic policies that is necessitated by the presently elevated pressures on inflation and the current account is also warranted from the perspective of demand management. Most demand indicators have remained strong since the last MPC—including sales of POL and automobiles, electricity generation, and sales tax on services—and growth in LSM accelerated in March. Both consumer and business confidence have also ticked up. With the output gap now positive, the economy would benefit from some cooling. On the back of monetary tightening and assumed fiscal consolidation, growth is expected to moderate to 3.5% to 4.5% in FY23.

External sector

The current account deficit continues to moderate. In April, it fell to US$623 million, less than half the average for the current fiscal year, on the back of lower imports and record remittances. Based on PBS data, the trade deficit shrank by 24% relative to its peak last November. These developments are in line with SBP’s projected current account deficit of around 4% of GDP this year.

Next year, the current account deficit is projected to narrow to around 3% of GDP as import growth continues to slow with moderating demand and the recent measures taken by the government to curtail non-essential imports, while exports and remittances remain resilient.

This narrowing of the current account deficit together with continued IMF support will ensure that Pakistan’s external financing needs during FY23 are more than fully met, with an almost equal share coming from rollovers by bilateral official creditors, new lending from multilateral creditors, and a combination of bond issuances, FDI and portfolio inflows.

As a result, excessive pressure on the Rupee should attenuate and SBP’s FX reserves should resume their previous upward trajectory during the course of the next fiscal year.

Fiscal sector

Instead of the budgeted consolidation, the fiscal stance in FY22 is now expected to be expansionary. At 0.7% of GDP, the primary deficit during the first three quarters of the year compares unfavorably with the primary surplus of 0.8 percent of GDP during the same period last year. This slippage was driven by a sharp rise in non-interest expenditures, led by higher subsidies, grants and provincial development expenditures.

The resulting demand pressures have coincided with the sharp rise in costs from the surge in global commodity prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures and the import bill. Timely action is needed to restore fiscal prudence, while providing adequate and targeted social protection to the most vulnerable. Such prudence enabled Pakistan’s public debt to decline from 75% of GDP in FY19 to 71% in 2021 despite the Covid shock, in sharp contrast to the average increase of around 10% of GDP across emerging markets over the same period.

Monetary and inflation outlook

In nominal terms, private sector credit growth remained robust through April, reflecting strong economic activity and higher input prices which have enhanced working capital requirements of firms. Since the last MPC meeting, secondary market yields, benchmark rates and cut-off rates in the government’s auctions have risen, particularly at the short end. The MPC noted that the market rates should be aligned with the policy rate and in case of any misalignment after today’s policy decision, SBP would take appropriate action.

Headline inflation rose from 12.7%YoY in March to 13.4% in April, driven by perishable food items and core inflation. The rise in core inflation reflects strong domestic demand and second-round effects of supply shocks.

At the same time, measures of long-term inflation expectations have also ticked up. As electricity and fuel subsidies are reversed, inflation is likely to rise temporarily and may remain elevated through FY23 before declining sharply during FY24. This baseline outlook is subject to risks from the path of global commodity prices and the domestic fiscal policy stance. The MPC will continue to carefully monitor developments affecting medium-term prospects for inflation, financial stability, and growth.

 

Pakistan: SBP and IFC join hands to promote Agriculture Finance through Warehouse Receipts Financing

Deputy Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Ms. Sima Kamil while addressing a two-day specialized training workshop on Electronic Warehouse Receipt Financing (EWRF) for banks observed that the training program will be instrumental to support SBP’s recent initiative to promote EWRF in the country.

Banks will be able to get hands on knowledge about EWRF product development, understanding the risk analysis, price determination mechanism and the international best practices.

She encouraged senior bankers to use the relevant knowledge of EWRF gained during the session and disseminate it in the industry for its smooth implementation.

EWRF is a mechanism whereby farmers can avail financing facility from banks by placing their produce and agricultural commodities. By doing so, farmers can avoid selling their produce on unfavorable prices just to ensure cash flows to meet input requirements of next crop. It will also help in reducing Pakistan’s high post-harvest losses.

Adoption of EWRF by banks and its enhanced uptake will not only facilitate banks to achieve higher levels of agriculture credit disbursement but will also help them enhance credit outreach.

Ms. Kamil noted that agriculture contributes almost a quarter to our GDP and employs half of the labor force. However, she regretted that people associated with agriculture sector face challenges in access to finance and modernize infrastructure that may facilitate them either in storing or timely disposal of their agricultural produce.

She added that SBP took the initiative of EWRF in view of the role of warehousing regime in increasing food security, reducing post-harvest losses and allowing bank financing to farmers against commodities as collateral. She hoped that it will facilitate traders and processors to purchase inputs they need, including seeds, fuel and fertilizers, before and during the harvest, when their seasonal financing needs are significant.

Parallel it will encourage investment in agricultural infrastructure in terms of building new, modern and commercially viable warehousing infrastructure. At outset, 25 banks signed System Usage Agreements (SUAs) with Naymat Collateral Management Company and SBP assigned indicative financing targets to these banks for FY 2021-22 and 2022-23. Now, these banks have started financing against maize crop in various districts of Punjab under the EWRF regime.

The Deputy Governor acknowledged the support extended by IFC in terms of technical assistance to Government of Pakistan and other key stakeholders to make building blocks for EWRF in Pakistan.

She expressed gratitude for IFC team led by its Country Manager for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Zeeshan Ahmed Sheikh and Ms. Nouma who has been coordinating an IFC-collaborated project for the promotion of EWRF in Pakistan. She also encouraged senior bankers to use the relevant knowledge of EWRF and disseminate in the industry for its smooth implementation.

Speaking on the occasion Zeeshan observed that innovative financing models, such as electronic warehouse receipts, are extremely important as they can unlock a massive amount of capital, bolstering the farming sector and, over the long run, supporting job creation and economic growth. He also acknowledged the Government of Japan for supporting the EWR work.

SBP organized the two-day training workshop in line with the EWRF Uptake Action Plan in collaboration with IFC. During the workshop, global experts from IFC and Pakistan shared their knowledge and experiences with senior banking officials regarding different modalities of collateralized commodity financing and EWRF. The program provided a deeper understanding of EWRF to banks that will help them to extend financing to farmers against agricultural commodities as alternate collateral.

This article was originally published in Eurasia Review

Welcome Dr. Murtaza Syed as Governor State Bank of Pakistan

With three-year term of Dr. Reza Baqir as Governor, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) coming to an end on May 04, 2022, Dr. Murtaza Syed, the senior most Deputy Governor takes over as Governor of the central bank.

Dr.  Syed an eminently qualified economist with rich experience of dealing with International Monetary Fund (IMF) will oversee the affairs of SBP and will be part of Pakistani team negotiating with the IMF, until the Government of Pakistan formally appoints new Governor of SBP.

According to the SBP, Dr. Syed has more than 20 years of experience in macroeconomic research and policy making and worked with the IMF for 16 years before resigning to join the State Bank of Pakistan. Dr. Syed has a PhD in economics from Nuffield College at the University of Oxford and has delivered lectures on public policy at Cambridge and Oxford Universities.

Earlier Finance Minister, Miftah Ismail had indicated in a tweet that the government would not be providing an extension to Dr, Reza Baqir.

"I want to thank Reza for his service to Pakistan. He is an exceptionally qualified man and we worked well during our brief time together. I wish him the very best," the minister had added.

Following Ismail's announcement, Dr. Baqir, in a series of tweets, thanked Allah and his fellow team members for giving him a chance to serve in the public office. "To other fellow Pakistanis, especially overseas, I encourage you to consider public service," he said.

The former governor also recalled the initiatives the SBP took during his tenure, such as Covid relief packages which included Rozgar payroll loans and hospital financing, Roshan Digital Account, Raast, a framework to licence digital banks in Pakistan, financial inclusion for women, affordable mortgages for lower-income groups and others.

"I want to especially thank Deputy Governors and SBP Corporate Management Team for your teamwork and support. I also want to thank the 4 Finance Ministers and 5 Finance Secretaries I worked with over my 3 years," he continued.

Dr. Baqir said that Pakistan faced several challenges but also possessed "great strengths" to counter them. "I am confident and hopeful that we as a country will make the right choices to overcome the challenges ahead of us," he added.

Meanwhile, the news of Dr. Baqir's term has termed as "loss for Pakistan" by politicians and analysts on Twitter.

State Bank of Pakistan raises policy rate by 100bps

On Tuesday, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) decided to raise the policy rate by 100 basis points to 9.75%. The goal of this decision is to counter inflationary pressures and ensure sustainable growth.

Since the last meeting on November 19, 2021, indicators of activity have remained robust, while inflation and the trade deficit have risen further due to both high global prices and domestic economic growth. In November, headline inflation increased to 11.5%YoY.

Core inflation in urban and rural areas also rose to 7.6 and 8.2 percent, respectively, reflecting domestic demand growth. On the external side, despite record exports, high global commodity prices contributed to a significant increase in the import bill. As a result, November trade deficit rose to US$5 billion.

The MPC noted that recent data releases confirm that the emphasis of monetary policy on moderating inflation and the current account deficit remains appropriate. Following Tuesday’s rate increase and given the current outlook for the economy, and in particular for inflation and the current account, the MPC felt that the end goal of mildly positive real interest rates on a forward-looking basis was now close to being achieved. Looking ahead, the MPC expects monetary policy settings to remain broadly unchanged in the near-term. The MPC key trends and prospects in the real, external and fiscal sectors and the resulting outlook for monetary conditions and inflation continue to upset.

Real sector

High-frequency indicators of domestic demand released since the last meeting, including electricity generation, cement dispatches, and sales of fast-moving consumer goods and petroleum products, and continued strength in imports and tax revenues suggest that economic growth remains robust. The outlook for agriculture continues to be strong, supported by better seed availability and an expected increase in the area under wheat cultivation. Meanwhile, robust growth in sales tax on services also suggests that the tertiary sector is recovering well. While some activity indicators are moderating on a sequential basis, partly as a result of recent policy actions to restrain domestic demand, growth this fiscal year is expected to be close to the upper end of the forecast range of 4 to 5 percent. The emergence of the new Coronavirus variant, Omicron, poses some concerns, but at this stage there is limited information about its severity. The MPC noted that Pakistan had successfully coped with multiple waves of the virus, which supported a positive outlook for the economy.

External sector

Despite strong exports and remittances, the current account deficit has increased sharply this year due to a rise in imports, and recent outturns have been higher than expected. Imports rose to US$32.9 billion during July-November period of FY22 as compared to US$19.5 billion during the same period last year. Around 70% of this increase in imports stems from the sharp rise in global commodity prices, while the rest is attributable to stronger domestic demand. Due to the higher recent outturns, the current account deficit is projected at around 4% of GDP, somewhat higher than earlier projected. In the near term, monthly current account and trade deficit figures are likely to remain high, but expected to gradually moderate in the second half of FY22 as global prices normalize with the easing of supply disruptions and tightening of monetary policy by major central banks. In addition, recent policy actions to moderate domestic demand―including policy rate hikes and curbs on consumer finance―and proposed fiscal measures should help moderate growth in import volumes through the rest of the year.

The MPC emphasized that the monetary policy response to arrest the deterioration in the current account deficit has been timely. Together with the natural moderating influence of the flexible and market-determined exchange rate, the MPC felt that the response would help achieve the goal of a sustainable current account deficit this fiscal year. Moreover, the MPC noted that the current account deficit is expected to be fully financed from external inflows. As a result, foreign exchange reserves should remain at adequate levels through the rest of the fiscal year and resume their growth trajectory as global commodity prices ease and import demand moderates.

Fiscal sector

During July-November FY22 period, revenue growth has been strong, driven by a broad-based and above-target increase in FBR tax collections. However, lower petroleum development levy (PDL) collection led to a decline in non-tax revenues. On the expenditure side, development spending and subsidies and grants have increased significantly during this period. The government intends to introduce legislation to increase revenues through elimination of certain tax exemptions and reduce current and development expenditures. These measures would help moderate domestic demand, improve the current account outlook, and complement recent monetary policy actions.

Monetary and inflation outlook

Since the last meeting, despite a moderation in consumer loans, overall credit growth has remained supportive of growth. Meanwhile, across all tenors, secondary market yields, benchmark rates and cut-off rates in the government’s auctions have risen significantly. The MPC noted that this increase appeared unwarranted.

The momentum in inflation has continued since the last MPC meeting, as reflected in a significant increase in both headline and core inflation in November. Due to recent higher than expected outturns, SBP expects inflation to average 9 – 11 percent this fiscal year. The pick-up in inflation has been broad-based, with electricity charges, motor fuel, house rent, milk and vegetable ghee among the largest contributors. On a sequential basis, inflation rose 3 percent (MoM) in November. Looking ahead, based on this momentum and the expected path of energy tariffs, inflation is likely to remain within the revised forecast range for the remainder of the fiscal year. Subsequently, as global commodity prices retrench, administered price increases dissipate, and the impact of demand-moderating policies materializes, inflation is expected to decline toward the medium-term target range of 5 to 7 percent during FY23. The MPC will continue to carefully monitor developments affecting medium-term prospects for inflation, financial stability and growth.

 

Pakistan: Government divesting its share in United Bank

Government of Pakistan is scheduled to offer its shareholding (19.8% of outstanding shares) in United Bank to international and domestic investors on 11th Jun'14. The base size is determined as 160 million shares, whereas upsize can accommodate additional 81.9 million shares. Floor price will be announced through notice to all three exchanges after market close on June 10, 2014.

Profit after tax of United Bank have gone up by 19% CAGR (CY10-CY-13). Though, the growth has been impressive, surge in Net Interest Income (7%) lagged the escalation of Net Interest Expense (12%) primarily as Policy Rate dropped from 14% to 9%, to close at 10%. Resultantly, Gross spread ratio deteriorated to 52.1% (CY13) from 57.8% (CY10).

Net Interest Income for Q1'14 increased by 12%YOY to settle at PKR9.8 billion with Gross Spread Ratio declining to 50.6% from 51.7% in Q1'13.

The Bank targeted an investment focused asset allocation with a lengthening maturity profile, consequently ADR & IDR moved inversely as they settled at 45% & 57% from 47% & 51% a quarter earlier. PIB holdings ballooned up by 90% QoQ.

Being the first commercial bank to launch Branchless Banking (BB) seems keen to hold on to its initiative as UBL Omni retained its 27% share in 4QCY13, whereas its main competitor Easy Paisa saw its share falling to 59%. Further Omni revenue in Q1'14 grew by 60%.

Bank management has not only focused on domestic geographical diversification but also extended outreach internationally by launching 18 international branches. Further it expanded its spectrum of services by establishing 5 subsidiaries, locally and internationally.

Pakistan: Warehouse Receipt Financing an alternative route

Efforts of State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to implement Warehouse Receipt Financing (WRF) in Pakistan are applaud able and needs to be supported by all the stakeholders. This essential but timely initiative is part of financial inclusion program being pursued by the central bank.Once fully implemented, WRF system will be extremely beneficial to the farmers and support in realizing top of the agenda item, achieving food security. This program one hand will help in containing wastages significantly, and on the other hand, enabling Pakistan to export surplus produce to those countries that need it the most.
Experts are of the consensus that the development of commodity physical trade and an efficient market system is a must for improving the performance of the agricultural sector in particular and the economy in general, the added advantage is documentation.
However, while going through initial reports regarding plan being considered by the designated working group constituted by the central bank, one gets a feeling that a rather complicated system involving too many participants is being proposed.
A closer look at the existing trading system of commodities like wheat, rice and cotton shows that not only too many intermediaries are involved but the available warehousing system is not to the level required for WRF system.
The detailed discussions with various stakeholders suggest that for the pilot project a product should be chosen that has relatively longer shelf life, quality standards are easy to certify, quantity to be handled can be monitored, appropriate warehousing facilities are available and above all commercial banks has the experience of extending credit against the selected commodity.
Keeping all the above stated factors in mind sugar can be picked as the first commodity to start WRF in Pakistan. The available data suggests that an elaborate and fully documented system is being followed in sugar trade. All the mills have reasonably reliable warehouses and sales are fully documented because of payment of GST.
Stock position is closely monitored by the commercial banks as these extend billions of rupees credit to the mills against hypothecation of stock. Mills submit daily stock reports to banks and physical stocks are checked with regular intervals to avoid any movement of stock without proper documentation.
Therefore, it may be said that since banks have been lending money against hypothecation of stock, sugar industry is a perfect test case to follow WRF system. The beauty of the system is that mills have long experience and expertise of collateral management and there may not be any need to induct additional collateral management company at this stage.
The added advantage is that Pakistan Mercantile Exchange (PMEX) is already working closely with some of the sugar mills to introduce trading of ‘mill specific deliverable sugar contracts’.
All the stakeholders have shown keen interest in participating in trading of sugar at PMEX. This on one hand will free the government from buying sugar through TCP in case of glut, and on the other hand, commercial banks will not be lending any additional funds.
Therefore, deliverable contracts can be changed into warehouse receipts and PMEX’s state-of-the-art technology based platform can be used for trading.
A closer coordination among the representatives of PMEX, sugar mills, apex regulators and commercial banks can lead to the commencement of trading of warehouse receipts in the shortest possible time.
Let one point be very clear to all the stakeholders that during the recently concluded sugarcane crushing season mills have produced over 5 million tons refined. The estimated value of the available stock is around Rs300 billion or US$3 billion based on international price of the commodity.
Mills have already acquired money from banks through hypothecation of stock and the amount involved can be confirmed from banks. The next move will be to convert these loans into warehouse receipt financing.
Once SECP approve these, trading of warehouse receipts can commence immediately as PMEX already has the required trading system in place.
One may say that according to my proposal the beneficiaries will be sugar mills and not the farmers. The perception has to be corrected because the ultimate beneficiary will be sugarcane growers as mills will be able to pay them off at a much faster pace. The added advantage is, they will not have to borrow from the informal sources and pay very high interest rate.

 

Pakistan embarks upon Warehouse Receipt Financing plan

Pakistan is among the top producers of cotton, sugarcane and food grains, i.e. wheat, rice and maize. However, significantly large quantities of food grains and even larger percentage of fruits produced goes stale before reaching the market. This on one hand deprives growers of their rightful return and on the other hand does not allow the country to earn foreign exchange, needed most desperately for the economic growth.

In an attempt to help the farmers boost production and yield, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has embarked upon an ambitious lending program for farmers. Now the annual disbursement to farmers is inching close to Rs400 billion (US$ four billion). The endeavor is fully supported by insurance companies operating in the country.

This initiative has helped Pakistan in joining the club of wheat exporting countries. At the close of the current sugarcane crushing season, refined sugar output is likely to exceed 4.7 million tons with an exportable surplus of over half a million tons. The country is also likely to get nearly 13.5 million bales of cotton. Pakistan is already exporting huge quantity of rice, especially ‘Basmati’.

To further facilitate the growers, SBP has embarked upon Warehouse Receipt Financing (WRF). In this regard a framework has been prepared and various meetings of the stakeholders have been held. The central bank considers that development of WRF is inevitable for achieving food security, improving return to farmers, and above all saving the output that goes stale before reaching the market. This requires millions of dollars investment for the construction of well organized warehousing infrastructure, imposition of stringent grading standards and ensuring proper collateral management.

In this venture, apart from the central bank and commercial banks (both conventional and Islamic), the other key stakeholders include Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP), federal and provincial governments, Pakistan Mercantile Exchange (PMEX), insurance companies, warehouse operators, collateral managers and farmers’ association. However, it remains a fact that unless modern warehouses are constructed in the country, this dream is not likely to become a reality.

While some of the ambitious planners believe that the entire infrastructure can be created within short span of time, others still have serious reservations, from availability of funds to construction of warehouses. It also requires  building confidence of all the stakeholders, particularly farmers, banks and insurance companies. The most encouraging point is that multilateral lenders have expressed their fullest support for the initiative. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the rationale and the proposed steps to be followed.

To begin with, one must have the correct information about production numbers and storage facilities. Pakistan produces nearly 40 million tons of different cereals annually, out of this wheat alone account for more than 25 million tons. As against this, there exists warehousing capacity of around 5 million tons. Storing grains in ‘technically unsuitable warehouses’ is the single largest reason for substantial quantities going stale or not being suitable for human consumption. As per various conservative estimates the losses to grains are between 15-20 percent and for horticulture (fruit and vegetables) is more than 25 percent. The province wise losses for grains at harvesting and in the supply chain were estimated in a study conducted by University of Faisalabad which elaborates as under:

Grain losses in storage

Province	Aggregate Loss	Threshing	Farm level	Market level	Public Sector	Consumer level
Punjab	13.8%	1.9%	1.5%	7.3%	5.5%	6.5%
Sind	15.7%	1.7%	1.3%	6.9%	6.2%	8.6%
NWFP	14.7%	1.5%	2.7%	3.4%	3.6%	8.5%
Balochistan	15.6%	1.5%	1.7%	4.6%	5.2%	7.1%
Pakistan	15.3%	1.6%	1.5%	7.8%	6.5%	8.0%

Source : Iqrar A. Khan. 2007. Vice-Chancellor, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad

There is potential for loss throughout the grain harvesting and agricultural marketing chains. For example:

• During stripping of maize grain from the cob, known as shelling, losses can occur when mechanical shelling is not followed up by hand-stripping of the grains that are missed. Improper shelling damages the grain and make insect penetration easier.
• For crops other than maize, threshing losses occur as a result of spillage, incomplete removal of the grain or by damage to grain during the threshing.
• Losses also occur after threshing due to poor separation of grain from the chaff during cleaning or winnowing.
• A wet season's paddy harvest may clog the screens and grain will be lost.
• Wind, either natural or from passing vehicles in the case of road drying, can blow grain away. With high moisture content, grain is susceptible to mould, heating, discoloration and a variety of chemical changes.
• Losses in stored grain are determined by the interaction between the grain, the storage environment and a variety of organisms.
• In general, grain is not infested by insects below 17 °C whereas mite infestations can occur between 3 and 30 °C and above 12% moisture content. The metabolic activity of insects and mites causes an increase in both the moisture content and temperature of infested grain.

There might be various reasons like high cost of infrastructure, running expenses of storage facilities, adoption of technical know how. However, the major reason is the involvement of a number of players that include farmers, warehouse operators, federal and provincial governments, regulators, commodity exchange, banks, collateral managers and lack of a common platform. Therefore, to fill the gap, SBP has initiated to make available the common platform for all the stakeholders.

Despite the fact the SBP launched a subsidized financing scheme for construction of warehouses, silos and cold storages for storing agricultural produce couple of years ago, efforts have  remained focused on cold storages. This shows that the cost of financing is not an issue, but the main reason is putting in place a mechanism, from production to consumption to adopt the system.

The central bank wants to involve business community and financial institutions, including Islamic banks to realize the business viability and an opportunity to participate in a profitable business and at the same time contribute to a crucial sector in food security. Establishment of the system will enable the business community to unlock its assets to the investment, thorough Warehouse Receipts that provide the convenience of trade, endorse/exchange, finance and sell in local and international markets. This will also save the huge losses, if controlled can feed 10 million people.  In addition, this will facilitate in addressing the issue of access to finance for the farmers through warehouse receipts.

In line with international best practices like Brazil, USA, South Africa and Bulgaria, a centralized collateral manager can be made responsible for accreditation, inspection and monitoring of warehouses. The central bank intends to start a pilot scheme through one of the renowned international collateral managers  ACE Global Depository involved in this business for a very long time. Reportedly, ACE has established its office in Pakistan and also agreed to bring in its expertise and international storage standards to Pakistan. It has also a global Professional Indemnity Assurance.

Besides Professional Indemnity Assurance, SBP is also facilitating linkages between local insurance companies and collateral management companies to develop insurance products to deal with situations not covered under the Professional Indemnity Assurance. This will provide comfort to the depositor that they are secured from losses in storage. Once the WHR system is expanded, other collateral and warehouse managers will be interested to play an active role in Pakistan. Experts envisage a healthy competition in this area after the idea takes off on a full fledged basis.

Recently, Saeed Ahmad, Deputy Governor SBP chaired a meeting on the formulation of the group. Talking to the representatives of different stakeholders, he said “Adoption of a warehouse receipt financing system would facilitate development of efficient and accessible rural financial system. Development of physical trade and marketing system of commodities would improve performance of the agricultural sector. Financial institutions would find it profitable to lend money for the construction of new warehouses”.

This initiative offers tremendous opportunities to the companies involved in this trade around the globe. These entities can form joint ventures with Pakistani entrepreneurs by involving IFC; mobilize funds globally or by listing the companies at the local stock exchanges. Central bank already has a plan for extending soft-term loans for the construction of warehouses. Those interested in the construction of warehouses can also approach Pakistani banks enjoying a significantly large share in lending to farmers for inputs and developmental work.