The SBP's policy rate decision is influenced by a greater than
expected decline in inflation and favorable trends in global oil and food
prices. However, given the uncertain nature of these developments, the
committee has adopted a cautious stance.
Real interest rates remain sufficiently positive to achieve
the SBP's medium-term inflation target of up to 7%.
The SBP is not focused on a specific interest rate level but
considers various factors, including the external account and future inflation,
when making rate decisions.
Governor was hopeful that the IMF board will review
Pakistan’s agenda for the approval of the 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF)
program this month, as the government has secured all required external
financing assurances.
Moving forward, the SBP will publish semi-annual data on
central bank interventions in currency markets, as well as projections for
foreign exchange reserves and upcoming debt obligations over the next six
months.
Data on currency market interventions will be published with
a three-month lag due to the sensitivity of the information.
In June 2024, the SBP purchased US$573 million from the open
market.
By the end of March 2025, country’s foreign exchange
reserves are projected to reach US$12.0 billion despite debt repayments.
The government is obligated to pay US$14.2 billion by March
2025, of which US$8.3 billion will be rolled over, while the remaining amount
consists of debt repayments.
To date, the government has cleared US$4 billion in debt,
including US$2.3 billion in rollovers. The remaining debt repayments of US$5.8 billion
will be spread evenly until March 2025.
For FY24, the government has US$26 billion in debt
obligations, including US$12 billion in rollovers and US$4 billion in
commercial bilateral loans, which are also expected to be rolled over.
Of the US$8.3 billion repayments due this year, US$1.7 billion
has already been settled.
According to audited accounts, the SBP earned a profit of PKR2.5
trillion in FY24 and is expected to disburse this amount as a dividend to the
government in the coming days.
Non-oil imports are at levels seen in FY22 and early FY23,
with the reduction primarily driven by a significant decline in oil imports.
