Iran faces dire energy crisis

According to a Saturday New York Times (NYT) report, Iran is facing a dire energy crisis, forcing schools, colleges, governmental offices, and shopping malls to operate at a reduced capacity. 

The report cited multiple reasons for the situation, including the sanctions imposed on Iran and an Israeli strike on the Islamic Republic.

According to the NYT, citing an official from the country's Petroleum Ministry and Hamid Hosseini, a member of the Chamber of Commerce’s energy committee, a covert Israeli attack last February, which struck two gas pipes belonging to the Islamic Republic, forced the country to use its emergency gas reserves.

Now, Iran reportedly faces a deficit of some 350 million cubic meters a day, with demands surging with the onset of winter.   

“We are facing very dire imbalances in gas, electricity, energy, water, money, and environment,” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a televised speech earlier in December, according to the NYT.

Hosseini told the NYT that the country was attempting to “contain the damage because this is like a ‘powder keg’ that can explode and create unrest across the country.”  

Chief of the Islamic Republic's Coordination Council of Industries Mehdi Bostanchi labeled the situation "catastrophic," according to the NYT. 

According to him, the recent week's deficit could cut production in the country by 30% to 50%, costing it billions of dollars. 

“Naturally, the damages from the widespread and abrupt power outage that has lasted all week will be extremely serious for industries,” Bostanchi reportedly noted.

 

Pakistan Naval Ships Visit Bandar Abbas

The Pakistan Navy's Peace and Friendship Squadron docked at Iran's Imam Khomeini Naval Base in Bandar Abbas on Saturday, marking a significant step in enhancing educational and military cooperation between the two neighboring countries.

The fleet, comprising three warships—PNS Azmat, PNS Rasadgar, and PNS Dasht—is on a mission to strengthen the ties between Pakistan and Iran. This marks the sixth visit to the port since 2016, the most recent being in January, 2024.

The arrival of the Pakistani flotilla was celebrated with an official ceremony, attended by commanders from the Imam Khomeini Naval Region, the Pakistani political consul, and the naval attaché in Iran. 

Commodore Omid Moghadam, commander of the Surface Flotilla of the Imam Khomeini Naval Region, expressed his satisfaction with the presence of the Pakistani naval ships in Bandar Abbas. 

"These friendly interactions between the naval forces of allied nations are customary and vital for bolstering our maritime cooperation," he stated. 

Captain Omid Maghami, commander of the Surface Navy Brigade of the First Naval Area, echoed similar sentiments, emphasizing that the presence of the Pakistani warships is a testament to the deepening ties between the naval forces of the two countries. 

"Such friendly exchanges between navies enhance educational and military cooperation, as well as the exchange of maritime experiences," he noted. 

During their four-day stay in Bandar Abbas, the Pakistani naval group will have a busy agenda, including meetings with the commander of the Imam Khomeini Naval Region, paying respects at the martyrs' cemetery, and visiting cultural and social sites in the city. 

The itinerary also features friendly sports competitions between the Iranian and Pakistani naval teams, meetings with political leaders of Hormozgan province, a friendship dinner on board both Iranian and Pakistani warships, and joint military exercises in the waters of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. 

The recent docking of the Pakistan Navy's Peace and Friendship Fleet in Bandar Abbas underscores the commitment of both Iran and Pakistan to fostering stronger military and security ties. 

This visit builds on past agreements, such as those signed during the late President Ebrahim Raisi's 2023 visit to Pakistan, aimed at enhancing security cooperation and paving the way for future collaborations in maritime security and regional stability.

 

Yemeni missile lands in Tel Aviv

According to Reuters, the Israeli military admitted it failed to intercept a missile from Yemen early on Saturday that fell in the Tel Aviv-Jaffa area, and the ambulance service said 14 people received mild injuries.

A spokesperson for Houthis said they had hit a "military target" in the Jaffa area with a ballistic missile.

Paramedics were treating 14 people with minor shrapnel injuries and some were taken to hospital, the ambulance service said in a statement.

The Israeli police reported receiving reports of a fallen missile in a town in the Tel Aviv area.

Houthis have repeatedly fired drones and missiles towards Israel in what they describe as acts of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.

On Thursday, Israel launched strikes against ports and energy infrastructure in Houthi-held parts of Yemen and threatened more attacks against the Yemeni group.

 

Taming the Shrewd called Trump

It is as clear as day that the US president has incalculable powers. Despite being an elected president, he is a complete autocrat. He can take many decisions at his own without the approval of the Senate and can veto any decision of the Senate. This right is available to the president under the US Constitution.

In his first term, Donald Trump not only unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear agreement reached with Iran by the remaining superpowers, but also imposed more sanctions at his own. After Iran's protests and the superpowers' surrender, Joe Biden has also been imposing new sanctions on Iran.

After being re-elected as president in the recent elections, he has begun to hint at rare royal decrees to be issued after he takes oath on January 20, 2025.

The first decree is that the BRICS countries will not create their own currency and if they dare to make such a mistake, they will be subject to additional tariffs and will not be able to export their products to the United States.

Israel has broken the backs of Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria at the behest of the US, and today there are heavy attacks on Yemen. There is a growing fear that Iran will be the next target.

At the same time, Trump has announced to impose new tariffs on Mexican and Canadian products exported to the US.

The limit is that Trump has also announced new tariffs on his allies to undermine the European Union.

I have no qualms in saying that the continued silence of Russia and China and the criminal indifference of the oil-producing Arab countries have given the US the courage to do all this.

Remember, those countries that are silent spectators of the destruction of other countries today will have no one to shed tears over their destruction tomorrow.

Iran's economic relations with its neighbors

In recent years, the economic relationships between Iran and its neighboring countries have grown in both complexity and significance. This economic integration is crucial for the development of Iran’s non-oil sector and its broader economic strategy, especially considering the geopolitical challenges that the country faces.

In this article, an effort has been made to explore the current state and future prospects of Iran’s trade with its neighbors, examine key sectors, trade volumes, and strategic partnerships.

As of late 2024, Iran’s non-oil trade with its neighbors has seen a notable increase. Non-oil trade volumes reached US$55.3 billion in the first 11 months of the year, with exports constituting 67 million tons of goods valued at US$25.8 billion and imports amounting to 21.4 million tons valued at US$29.4 billion.

This represents a significant increase in trade flows, driven by an increase in exports of petrochemical products, minerals, and agricultural goods.

Iran’s primary trading partners in the region include Iraq, the UAE, Turkey, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. The UAE and Iraq are Iran’s two largest trade partners, especially in terms of exports.

For example, in the first seven months of 2024, Iran’s trade with Iraq was valued at US$7.6 billion, making it one of the most crucial destinations for Iranian goods. The major exports to Iraq include petrochemicals, cement, and agricultural products, while imports primarily consist of machinery and food items.

Turkey has also maintained its position as a key trading partner, with trade between the two countries amounting to US$9.9 billion in the same period. Iranian exports to Turkey largely consist of natural gas and petroleum products, while imports from Turkey are diverse, including electrical machinery and textiles.

Iran’s geopolitical location, bordered by 15 countries, gives it a strategic advantage in the trade of goods and services. This advantageous position allows Iran to serve as a key transit hub for goods moving between Central Asia, the Caucasus, and West Asia.

In particular, the development of international transport corridors, such as the North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which links Iran with Russia, India, and Central Asia, is expected to enhance Iran’s role in regional trade.

Furthermore, the expansion of special economic zones, such as the Lamerd Free Trade Zone, has created new opportunities for businesses to engage in regional trade. This diversification of trade routes and infrastructure investment is expected to foster deeper economic ties with countries in the Persian Gulf and beyond.

Despite challenges, such as global sanctions and regional instability, Iran’s government has focused on expanding its non-oil exports, particularly to its neighbors. This strategy is part of a broader effort to reduce Iran’s dependency on oil revenues and diversify its economy.

The Iranian government’s push for stronger trade relations with Central Asia, Russia, and even countries like Oman and Turkmenistan, is driven by the need for economic diversification and the potential to access new markets. Iran’s trade with Russia, for example, has grown steadily, with recent figures showing a trade volume of US$1.5 billion in 2024.

The economic outlook for Iran’s trade with neighboring countries is promising. The country’s strategic location, combined with increased infrastructure investment and a strong focus on non-oil exports, positions Iran as a key player in the regional economy.

However, the ongoing challenges of sanctions and geopolitical tensions remain factors to consider as Iran continues to navigate its path toward economic diversification.

If these trade relationships continue to strengthen, Iran could significantly enhance its role as a regional economic hub, ensuring long-term stability and growth for its economy.

 

Trump wants EU to buy more US oil and gas or face tariffs

According to Reuters, US President-elect Donald Trump said on Friday that the European Union (EU) may face tariffs if the bloc does not cut its growing deficit with the United States by making large oil and gas trades with the world's largest economy.

The EU is already buying the lion's share of US oil and gas exports, according to US government data, and no additional volumes are currently available unless the United States increases output or volumes are re-routed frm Asia - another big consumer of US energy.

"I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas," Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

"Otherwise, it is tariffs all the way!!!," he added.

The European Commission said it was ready to discuss with the president-elect how to strengthen an already strong relationship, including in the energy sector.

"The EU is committed to phasing out energy imports from Russia and diversifying our sources of supply," a spokesperson said.

The United States already supplied 47% of the European Union's LNG imports and 17% of its oil imports in the first quarter of 2024, according to data from EU statistics office Eurostat.

Trump has vowed to impose tariffs on most if not all imports, and said Europe would pay a heavy price for having run a large trade surplus with the US for decades.

Trump has repeatedly highlighted the US trade deficit for goods, but not trade as a whole.

The US had a goods trade deficit with the EU of 155.8 billion euros (US$161.9 billion) last year. However, in services it had a surplus of 104 billion euros, Eurostat data shows.

Trump, who takes office on January 20, 2025 has already pledged hefty tariffs on three of the United States' largest trading partners - Canada, Mexico and China.

Most European oil refiners and gas firms are private and the governments have no say on where the purchases are coming from unless authorities impose sanctions or tariffs. The owners usually buy their resources based on price and efficiencies.

The EU has steeply increased purchases of US oil and gas following the block's decision to impose sanctions and cut reliance on Russian energy after Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022.

The United States has grown to become the largest oil producer in recent years with output of over 20 million barrels per day of oil liquids or a fifth of global demand.

US crude exports to Europe stand at over two million bpd representing over a half of US total exports with the rest going to Asia. The Netherlands, Spain, France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, and Sweden are the biggest importers, according to the US government data.

The United States is also the world's biggest gas producer and consumer with output of over 103 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd).

The US government projects that US exports of liquefied gas (LNG) will average 12 bcfd in 2024. In 2023, Europe accounted for 66% of US LNG exports, with the Britain, France, Spain and Germany being the main destinations.

EU exports are dominated by Germany with key goods being cars, machinery and chemicals.

 

Netanyahu eyes Iran, his arch foe

According to Reuters, 2025 will be a year of reckoning for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He is set to cement his strategic goals: tightening his military control over Gaza, thwarting Iran's nuclear ambitions and capitalizing on the dismantling of Tehran's allies - Palestinian Hamas, Lebanon's Hezbollah and the removal of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.

Assad's collapse, the elimination of the top leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah and the destruction of their military structure mark a succession of monumental wins for Netanyahu.

Without Syria, the alliances Tehran has nurtured for decades have unraveled. As Iran's influence weakens, Israel is emerging as the dominant power in the region.

Netanyahu is poised to zero in on Iran's nuclear ambitions and missile program, applying an unyielding focus to dismantling and neutralizing these strategic threats to Israel.

Iran, Middle East observers say, faces a stark choice: Either continue its nuclear enrichment program or scale back its atomic activities and agree to negotiations.

"Iran is very vulnerable to an Israeli attack, particularly against its nuclear program," said Joost R. Hiltermann, Middle East and North Africa Program Director of the International Crisis Group. "I wouldn't be surprised if Israel did it, but that doesn't get rid of Iran."

"If they (Iranians) do not back down, Trump and Netanyahu might strike, as nothing now prevents them," said Palestinian analyst Ghassan al-Khatib, referring to President-elect Donald Trump. Khatib argued that the Iranian leadership, having demonstrated pragmatism in the past, may be willing to compromise to avert a military confrontation.

Trump, who withdrew from a 2015 agreement between Iran and six world powers aimed at curbing Tehran's nuclear goals, is likely to step up sanctions on Iran's oil industry, despite calls to return to negotiations from critics who see diplomacy as a more effective long-term policy.

Amid the turmoil of Iran and Gaza, Netanyahu's long-running corruption trial, which resumed in December, will also play a defining role in shaping his legacy. For the first time since the outbreak of the Gaza war in 2023, Netanyahu took the stand in proceedings that have bitterly divided Israelis.

With 2024 coming to an end, the Israeli prime minister will likely agree to sign a ceasefire accord with Hamas to halt the 14-month-old Gaza war and free Israeli hostages held in the enclave, according to sources close to the negotiations.

But Gaza would stay under Israeli military control in the absence of a post-war US plan for Israel to cede power to the Palestinian Authority (PA), which Netanyahu rejects. Arab states have shown little inclination to press Israel to compromise or push the decaying PA to overhaul its leadership to take over.

"Israel will remain in Gaza militarily in the foreseeable future because any withdrawal carries the risk of Hamas reorganizing. Israel believes that the only way to maintain the military gains is to stay in Gaza," Khatib told Reuters.

For Netanyahu, such a result would mark a strategic victory, consolidating a status quo that aligns with his vision: Preventing Palestinian statehood while ensuring Israel's long-term control over Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem -- territories internationally recognised as integral to a future Palestinian state.

The Gaza war erupted when Hamas militants stormed into Israel on October 07, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. Israel responded with an air and land offensive that has killed 45,000 people, health authorities there say, displaced 1.2 million and left much of the enclave in ruins.

While the ceasefire pact would bring an immediate end to the Gaza hostilities, it would not address the deeper, decades-old Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Arab and Western officials say.

On the ground, prospects for a Palestinian state, an option repeatedly ruled out by Netanyahu's government, have become increasingly unattainable, with Israeli settler leaders optimistic that Trump will align closely with their views.

A surge in settler violence and the increasing confidence of the settler movement - highway billboards in some West Bank areas bear the message in Arabic "No Future in Palestine" - reflect a growing squeeze on Palestinians.

Even if the Trump administration were to push for an end to the conflict, "any resolution would be on Israel’s terms," said Hiltermann of the Crisis Group.

"It's over when it comes to a Palestinian state, but the Palestinians are still there," he said.

In Trump's previous term, Netanyahu secured several diplomatic wins, including the “Deal of the Century,” a US-backed peace plan which Trump floated in 2020 to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The plan, if implemented, marks a dramatic shift in US policy and international agreements by overtly aligning with Israel and deviating sharply from a long-standing land for peace framework that has historically guided negotiations.

It would allow Israel to annex vast stretches of land in the occupied West Bank, including Israeli settlements and the Jordan Valley. It would also recognize Jerusalem as the "undivided capital of Israel" - effectively denying Palestinian claims to East Jerusalem as their capital, a central aspiration in their statehood goals and in accordance with UN resolutions.

SYRIA AT CRITICAL CROSSROADS

Across the border from Israel, Syria stands at a critical juncture following the overthrow of Assad by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel forces, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, better known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani.

Golani now faces the monumental task of consolidating control over a fractured Syria, where the military and police force have collapsed. HTS has to rebuild from scratch, securing borders and maintaining internal stability against threats from jihadists, remnants of the Assad regime, and other adversaries.

The greatest fear among Syrians and observers alike is whether HTS, once linked to al-Qaeda but now presenting itself as a Syrian nationalist force to gain legitimacy, reverts to a rigid Islamist ideology.

The group’s ability or failure to navigate this balance will shape the future of Syria, home to diverse communities of Sunnis, Shi'ites, Alawites, Kurds, Druze and Christians.

"If they succeed in that (Syrian nationalism) there's hope for Syria, but if they revert to their comfort zone of quite strongly ideologically-tainted Islamism, then it's going to be divisive in Syria," said Hiltermann.

"You could have chaos and a weak Syria for a long time, just like we saw in Libya and Iraq."

Pezeshkian to focus Makran coast development

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian announced a major initiative to develop Iran's Makran coast, stating that necessary coordination has been made to employ top international consultants to prepare a comprehensive plan and roadmap for the development of the Makran region.

Speaking at a cabinet meeting on Wednesday, Pezeshkian emphasized the need to catch up with neighboring countries in exploiting the Makran coast's potential, aiming to "achieve a superior position in the region in line with the goals of the 20-Year Vision Document." 

He highlighted the lack of a previous overarching plan, noting, “We have not had a comprehensive and all-encompassing plan as a roadmap for the development of Makran, and various bodies have taken actions based on their missions and responsibilities in this regard.” 

Pezeshkian described the Makran coast as “the most important foundation for sustainable and long-term development in Iran,” asserting that the country's future is inextricably linked to its development. 

The new plan, he explained, will follow thorough studies and assessments to define the responsibilities of administrative bodies and ensure coordinated action.

The strategic importance of the Makran coast, located on the Oman Sea, has been underscored by Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Al Khamenei, prompting significant attention from Iranian decision-makers and military officials.

The Makran coast provides Iran with access to vital shipping lanes and crucial maritime trade routes connecting the Indian Ocean to the Persian Gulf.

 

Iran: Biggest loser after Assad’s fall

Among the central factors that led to the ouster of Bashar al Assad was Iranian and Russian decisions not to intervene yet again to prop him up. While Syria’s trajectory remains highly uncertain, its post-Assad posture is likely to be inimical to both the countries.    

Tehran had long used Syria as vector to project influence in the region and marshalled significant resources and manpower to keep Assad in power when the Syrian civil war erupted in 2011.

Moscow similarly saw its ties with Assad as a source of regional influence, and its 2015 intervention in Syria was decisive in Assad maintaining his stranglehold on power.

But with Russia bogged down in Ukraine, and Iran — and its allies like Hezbollah — severely weakened by the post October 07, 2023 conflict with Israel, neither patron was willing to rescue Assad once again.

USIP’s Garrett Nada explains what Assad’s ouster means for Iran: 

The toppling of the Assad regime is a major loss for Iran, which has not been so isolated or vulnerable in the region since the 1980-1988 war with Iraq. Syria was Iran’s only close state ally in the Middle East. It was a frontline against Iran’s archenemy Israel and the linchpin of Tehran’s ability to project power in the Levant. For four decades, Syria was the main conduit for Iran’s supply of weapons and equipment to Hezbollah in Lebanon, which became the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor.

Iran’s extensive support to Assad during the Syrian civil war, which broke out in 2011, reflected the country’s importance for Tehran’s regional strategy. Iran deployed thousands of military advisers and troops, mobilized tens of thousands of foreign Shiite fighters from as far away as Afghanistan and Pakistan to bolster regime forces, and organized a new Syrian paramilitary and provided billions of dollars in aid. Iran’s efforts, coupled with Russian air support, helped keep Assad in control of much of Syria until late 2024.  

Iranian officials quickly accepted the fate of the Assad regime despite all the blood and treasure invested. “It is the Syrian people who must decide on the future of their country and its political and governmental system,” President Masoud Pezeshkian said on December 08, 2024.

Iran’s foreign ministry expressed a willingness to engage with a new government. “The Iranian and Syrian nations have always had long-standing and friendly relationship,” it said on December 08.

“It is expected that this relationship will continue with a wise and forward-looking approach by both nations, based on mutual interests and adherence to international legal obligations.”

Iran asked HTS to protect Shiite holy sites in Syria, and HTS confirmed that it would protect the Sayyida Zeinab shrine in Damascus.

Yet Iran’s future relationship with Syria is dubious. Many of the players poised to play key roles in the transition hold Iran responsible for propping up the brutal Assad regime.

“This new triumph, my brothers, marks a new chapter in the history of the region, a history fraught with dangers (that left) Syria as a playground for Iranian ambitions, spreading sectarianism, stirring corruption,” Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al Sham, said in his victory speech on December 08.

On the same day, Iran’s embassy in Damascus, previously evacuated, was vandalized and looted. Posters of the supreme leader and other Iranians were torn and discarded on the floor.

The fall of Assad may push Iran to reconsider its “forward defense” strategy. For decades, Iran has relied on the “Axis of Resistance,” including Syria and militia allies across region, to pressure Israel and deter strikes on Iranian soil. The goal was to keep conflicts far from Iran’s borders. But the axis already faced severe setbacks before Assad’s departure.

Israel significantly weakened both Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon during the war that erupted after the Hamas-led October 07 terrorist attacks. Israeli forces killed senior leaders and thousands of fighters and degraded both groups’ abilities to wage war. Iran will face significant logistical challenges to resupplying Hezbollah without the Syrian land bridge.

Meanwhile, Iran lacks credible mechanisms to deter Israel. Tehran launched unprecedented direct attacks on Israel, one in April 2024 including 170 drones, at least 30 cruise missiles, and more than 120 ballistic missiles, and one in October 2024 including more than 180 ballistic missiles. But neither caused significant damage or dissuaded Israel from launching counterattacks, the second of which crippled Iran’s air defenses and damaged missile production capabilities.

The remaining members of the “Axis of Resistance” are not much help in terms of deterring Israel. The Houthis in Yemen have proven resilient despite attacks by the US and Israel but have only carried out sporadic long-range missile and drone attacks.

The Iraqi militias backed by Iran, such as Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, are also relatively peripheral and have not caused much damage to Israeli targets.

With limited options, a growing number of Iranian officials have called for revising the country’s nuclear doctrine to allow the production of nuclear weapons. As of late 2024, Iran could produce enough highly enriched uranium to fuel one nuclear bomb in as little as one or two weeks.

Tehran would need several months or more than a year to assemble a warhead and marry it to a delivery system, such as a ballistic missile. But moving to weaponize would come with its own serious risks.

 

How would WTO brace Donald Trump?

The World Trade Organization (WTO) held the last of its 2024 meetings this week, and for anyone rooting for the institution to conclude long-discussed agreements just ahead of its 30th anniversary, the results were a little hard to watch. Here’s a recap of what came out of gatherings of the WTO’s General Council and its Dispute Settlement Body.

Here’s a recap of what came out of gatherings of the WTO’s General Council and its Dispute Settlement Body:

·        Dispute settlement reform was unresolved and there was a pledge to continue talking next year

·        On the second fisheries agreement, India and Indonesia were granted more time to air their concerns. “Fish 2” was at the decision stage but was demoted to a “discussion” item

·        India, South Africa and Turkey blocked a deal known as Investment Facilitation for Development. That left it short of the needed consensus, even though 126 members backed its incorporation into WTO bylaws

·        Progress was made on two administrative issues: picking dates for the next ministerial conference (March 26-29, 2026, in Cameroon) and approval of WTO Secretariat pension reforms

Newly re-appointed Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala tried to maintain a positive outlook, saying she hopes members return in the new year with a “spirit of compromise, ready to do deals.”

For an organization that needs everyone to agree, that’s going to be a challenge when US President-elect Donald Trump takes office January 20, 2025. His threatened tariffs and “America First” trade agenda run counter to the mission of the Geneva based WTO.

Trump promised 60% duties on Chinese imports and at least 10% for the rest of the world. In November, he threatened to impose further 10% tariffs on Beijing and 25% on Mexico and Canada if they fail to stop the flow of fentanyl and undocumented migrants to the US.

All of that violates the commitments that more than 160 nations make to join the WTO, said Bill Reinsch, a Commerce Department official during the Clinton administration and now a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Trump is known to dislike multilateral institutions, having withdrawn the US from a trade deal for the Indo-Pacific, the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization in his first term.

He could quit the WTO, too. Or he could stay in it, heap more scorn on the rules-based international order and ignore other countries complaining about Washington’s protectionism.

In Trump’s first term, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer watched the WTO’s appellate body grind to a standstill by preventing the appointment of new judges as terms expired, leaving it short of the number needed to function.

This week Biden administration delegates blocked a move by 130 WTO member countries that called for a restart of the process to fill vacancies on the appellate body — the 82nd time that that proposal failed.

The outlook for the WTO to free itself of paralysis under the incoming Trump administration isn’t favorable. 

Jamieson Greer, Trump’s nominee for USTR, was a close adviser to Lighthizer. His views on WTO relevancy are unclear, but he did say in testimony in May that “efforts to hold China accountable under WTO dispute mechanisms were largely unfruitful.”

The WTO also irked some Trump allies by accelerating the process this year of approving Okonjo-Iweala for another four-year term at its helm.

That was “almost certainly designed to prevent the incoming Trump administration from having a say in the matter,” said Dennis Shea, Trump’s ambassador to the WTO in his first term.

“The WTO already has diminished reputation in the United States,” he said. “This unprecedented action only diminishes it further.”

According to a Geneva-based trade source, Trump’s name wasn’t mentioned during this week’s General Council session.

Courtesy: Bloomberg

Mari Petroleum Company downgraded

One of Pakistan’s leading brokerage houses, Intermarket Securities has downgraded its stance on Mari Petroleum Company (MARI) from Neutral to Sell. The recent rally of 169% in FYTD has more than priced in the potential upside from new fields and production growth.

Recent discovery in the much-hyped Waziristan block (Bannu West) is likely to commence production by the end of FY25. While the market has high hopes from the block, the brokerage house has assumed initial production of 70mmcfd which could rise to 250mmcfd by FY28.

Following the rally of 91% over the past two months, the stock seems overvalued. MARI has more than priced in the positives while the market has disregarded that near-term earnings will decline due to additional royalty on Mari D&P.

The updated earnings estimates for FY25and FY26 stand at PKR57.00 and PKR62.07, respectively. The Sell stance reflects the view that the recent rally appears to have overestimated the positives, in particular the potential of its recent discoveries.

The recent rally seems to have been partly driven by speculation surrounding potential heavy mineral resource discoveries and the company’s rebranding to "MARI Energy," though no concrete developments have yet materialized. Furthermore, high expectations around Bannu West remain unrealized, adding to the downside risk.

MARI, in partnership with OGDC and another E&P (OPL), has made a significant discovery in the Waziristan block (Bannu West), reporting a cumulative find of 70mmcfd from two exploratory wells, Shewa-1 and Shewa-2. A third exploratory-cum-appraisal well is currently in the drilling phase.

While market expectations for the block remain elevated, the brokerage house estimates production to commence by the end of FY25 with initial flows of 70mmcfd, gradually peaking at 250mmcfd by FY28. However, the market’s exuberance appears overdone: the present stock price of PKR729/ share would be justified by production of 600mmcfd from Bannu West—almost similar to the Mari field. This disconnect between expectations and realistic production forecasts underpins the Sell call on the stock.  

 

Need for unity among Muslim countries

A senior military adviser to the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, has proposed that unity among Muslim nations could play a transformative role in reshaping global dynamics.

“The convergence and unity of Muslim countries, forming a Muslim power bloc, is the only way to liberate Muslim nations from the hegemony of global arrogance, particularly the United States and Israel,” Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi asserted.  

The Iranian general accused the United States and Israel of being key drivers of instability, war, and human suffering across the region and the globe.

Safavi argued that Muslim nations must prioritize sustainable security, regional peace, and self-reliance to achieve true progress and independence.  

Safavi emphasized that the world is undergoing a profound geopolitical transformation, leading to the emergence of a new global order.

Speaking on the subject, he stated, “The current world is in a geopolitical transitional phase, and we are witnessing the shaping of a new world order on both regional and international scales.”  

According to Safavi, this evolving order is marked by the gradual decline of Western dominance and the rise of Eastern powers. He explained, “The global power system is slowly but surely shifting from the West to the East.”  

Safavi highlighted the growing influence of Asian and Eurasian powers, such as China, India, Russia, and Iran.

He noted that these nations are increasingly collaborating within frameworks like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS to challenge the unilateral dominance of the United States and its NATO allies.

Their objectives, he said, include reducing global reliance on the US dollar in trade and countering Western-centric policies.  

The general also underscored the chaotic state of the world, attributing recent conflicts and wars to a 200-year long struggle among global and regional powers for political, economic, and cultural dominance over strategically significant regions.  

He stressed the need for greater collaboration and recognition among Muslim countries, stressing that their collective efforts could pave the way for a stronger, unified presence on the global stage.

 

 

JCPOA no longer relevant, says IAEA chief

Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has said that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is no longer viable, appearing to place sole responsibility for the 2015 nuclear deal's lame-duck state on Iran.

"The philosophy of the initial JCPOA agreement can be used as a basis, but the agreement itself is no longer necessary," Grossi remarked during his visit to Italy for discussions with the Foreign Ministry. 

The UN nuclear chief pointed out that Iran is now enriching uranium to levels of 60%, a threshold that he said brings the country close to the capability to produce military-grade uranium, which requires enrichment to 90%. "Iran is rapidly approaching the status of a nuclear state," he claimed. 

Grossi omitted any mention of the West's abandonment of the deal, the factor that prompted Iran to curtail some of its JCPOA commitments in the first place. 

The JCPOA was signed in 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 group of countries (the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China). It aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the termination of sanctions.

Washington unilaterally withdrew from the pact in 2018 and re-imposed sanctions against Iran. European signatories to the deal not only failed to take the sting out of US sanctions but also came up with anti-Iran bans of their own. 

Tehran began to scale back on some of its JCPOA commitments in 2020, under a new law passed by the Iranian parliament. 
 

 

 

Israel occupies vast land of Syria

According to the Hebrew media Israeli military has occupied more than 370 square kilometers of Syria that is larger than the besieged Gaza Strip. 

On Tuesday, it was reported that Israeli infantry was advancing in some neighborhoods of the city of Hader in Quneitra province, southwestern Syria.

The Israeli news television channel i24 NEWS stated that Israeli ground forces destroyed Syrian army military sites and assets in southern Syria.

The Israeli news outlet indicated that the activity was approved by the necessary levels and carried out with the assistance of armored battalions deployed in the region and infantry fighters.

According to the Israeli military correspondent Yinon Shalom Yitah, the operation targeted military infrastructure belonging to the Syrian army.

Since the fall of the Syrian president, the Israeli army continues to seize territory, after occupying Jabal Sheikh (Mount Hermon) and the buffer zone in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights.

The occupation forces are now only 15 kilometers away from the international highway between Damascus and Beirut.

They have also seized the most significant freshwater sources in southern Syria, located along the Yarmouk River. 

For decades, a large portion of Syrian households and businesses have relied on these basins along the Yarmouk River for sanitized water supplies. 

The Israeli occupation continues its attacks on military positions to neutralize Syria’s combat capability. 

The Israeli army claimed that its attacks over the past few days have “severely damaged Syria’s air defense system,” destroying “more than 90% of strategic surface-to-air missiles.”

Meanwhile, Israeli occupation forces continue a ground invasion into southern Syria, expanding its control over new Syrian villages along the border with Lebanon.

Israeli occupation forces have brought in engineering equipment towards the slopes of Jabal Sheikh (Mount Hermon) in a bid to dig trenches and prevent any potential connection with Lebanese territories.

Pakistan: SBP cuts policy rate by 200bps

Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of  the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in its meeting on December 16, 2024 decided to reduce the benchmark policy rate by 200bps to 13.00%.

The MPC highlighted that despite falling inflation, core inflation remains sticky, with near-term inflation likely to remain volatile.

Additionally, growth prospects have improved as reflected by the recent uptick in high-frequency indicators, with the impact of the easing beginning to unfold.

Improving business confidence and easing financial conditions are expected to support economic growth. Accordingly, the MPC expects the real GDP growth in FY25 to remain in the range of 2.5% to 3%.

On the external front, strong remittances and exports along with favorable international commodity prices, are expected to keep current account deficit below1% of GDP in FY25.

Resultantly, foreign exchange reserves held by SBP are anticipated to exceed US$13 billion by end June 2025.

On the fiscal front, declining yields will lead to a sizeable saving in interest payments on domestic debt compared to the budget estimates. However, achieving the target for primary surplus will be challenging.

The M2 growth has decelerated mainly due to drop in Government borrowing. Meanwhile, credit to private sector has picked up as banks have expedited lending to meet ADR thresholds by Dec’24.

Finally, factors contributing to the NCPI fall are likely to continue, going forward.

 

 

Al-Jolani: A terrorist being used against Iran

The man who helped oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad last week embodies a blend of traits drawn from some of Washington’s most infamous creations: The attire of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, the terrorist background of slain Al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden, and the strident anti-Iranian rhetoric of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Washington’s US$10 million bounty on Abu Mohammad al-Jolani’s head hasn’t stopped Western media from trying to sanitize his image. In an interview with CNN a few days before the fall of Assad’s government, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader was introduced as a misunderstood revolutionary, whose youthful exuberance somehow prompted him to behead civilians on a regular basis. 

“I never had the intent to do these things. [I was] at a certain state of consciousness and young age back then,” he told the CNN reporter, while the female journalist nodded her head in understanding.  The terror leader added that the only threats against Syria were Iran and Hezbollah.

As the world ponders whether it should give the Al-Qaeda and Daesh affiliate a second chance, Iran is likely to reach a clear conclusion sooner. The reason? Al-Jolani seems adamant about sticking to part of his character inspired by Netanyahu.

In similar remarks to his CNN interview on Saturday, al-Jolani said the HTS has no animosity towards the Iranian people, a line usually used by Netanyahu whose biggest dream is to pummel Iran and divide the country into different states.

While he also spoke about his intentions to “unite Syria” and respect all groups in his potential future government, al-Jolani failed to roll out any plans about the elephant in the room, Israel’s recent occupation of new regions in Syria, and its nonstop bombardment of the country in the past week.

The HTS leader said Syria will not be engaging in any military conflict with Israel because it is “not ready”. He did, however, say that Israel has no reason to attack Syria, as “Iranian forces have left the country”. Israel has bombed Syrian soil on over 2000 occasions since December 08.  According to the regime, over 80% of Syria’s military infrastructure now lies in ruins.

Elsewhere in his remarks, al-Jolani said he will not be joining the Axis of Resistance in support of Palestinians.

For the most part, so far, al-Jolani has acted as the perfect Western puppet. He has changed his looks to better fit Western TV, he demonizes Iran, and he has a phenomenon indifference to Israeli aggressions against his country.

Much to the dismay of Washington and Al-Jolani’s second biggest supporter, Turkey, however, nobody knows when this carefully constructed façade of a reformed terrorist is going to crack and backfire on all involved actors. Some believe that day might be right around the corner.

“The sudden regime change in Syria is a short-lived victory. How this all plays out moving forward is almost impossible to say, other than it looks like there will be considerable chaos in Syria for the foreseeable future,” said John Mearsheimer, a renowned political science professor and theorist before condemning Western media for whitewashing HTS’s leader. “These journalists understand full well, most Americans understand… that the US is supporting terrorists.”

 

 

Turkey violated Doha agreement on Syria

The Turkish Foreign Minister has claimed that Turkey successfully persuaded Iran and Russia not to intervene militarily during the Syrian rebels' offensive which led to the downfall of President Bashar al-Assad's government in the early hours of December 08. 2024.

The information obtained by the Tehran Times suggests that this assertion contradicts the terms agreed upon in Doha on December 07 between the foreign ministers of Turkey, Iran, and Russia.

In a recent interview with Turkey’s NTV, Hakan Fidan stated, "The most important thing we had to do was to talk to the Russians and Iranians to ensure they would not enter the (Syria) equation with military force. We spoke with the Russians and Iranians, and they understood the issue."

The information obtained by the Tehran Times shows the December 07 summit under the Astana platform saw Turkey agree to a framework enabling direct negotiations between the Syrian President and rebel forces, with Assad remaining in power.

“It was agreed that the Syrian conflict would be resolved through political means, with both the Assad government and the armed opposition entering into dialogue,” a source involved in the Doha talks told the Tehran Times.

“The agreement was signed by Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, and Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Yet, developments on the ground in Syria on Sunday, December 09, show that Turkey did not adhere to what it had signed.”

Armed factions led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebels launched a surprise attack against Syria’s northwestern Aleppo Province on November 27. The militants quickly advanced towards Damascus in the face of the Syrian army’s refusal to resist. 

Reports and evidence show the HTS and its allied factions have been receiving substantial financial and military support from Turkey, the United States, and Israel.

 

HTS: The B team of United States and Israel

The clandestine ties between Israel and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) that took over Damascus last Sunday are coming under close scrutiny. It is our humble request to all the Muslims that they should try to understand the dirty drama being staged by United States with the connivance of Israel.

The HTS is originally an offshoot of ISIL, also known as ISIS and Daesh in Arabic, and al-Qaeda. It was previously referred to as the Nusra Front, underwent a rebranding in 2017 to alter public perception regarding its past actions.

Israel’s support for ISIL and al-Qaeda terrorists who fought against the Syrian government after the 2011 Arab Spring. Soon after the rebels seized the Syrian capital, Israel began a widespread bombing campaign pounding the country’s military facilities. The Israeli strikes were aimed at destroying Syria’s military capabilities amid fears that they could potentially be used against the regime. 

Israel also violated the 1974 agreement with Syria and deployed its ground troops into the Syrian territory.  The Israeli military has seized control of a demilitarized buffer zone in the Golan Heights in Syria that was created as part of the accord. Its forces have occupied some regions inside Syria beyond the zone.

The most striking is that HTS has kept mum about the Israeli airstrikes and ground incursion into Syria for several days. 

On Friday, Syria’s transitional government that operates under the supervision of HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa – formerly known by his nom de guerre, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, condemned Israel’s aggression against Syria. 

In a letter to the United Nations, the new transitional government described Israel’s land grab in Syria as a serious violation of the1974 armistice agreement. 

The letter also rebuked Israel for conducting air raids across Syria. 

"The Syrian Arab Republic condemns in the strongest terms this Israeli aggression," it said. 

Syria’s current rulers have been under fire over their inaction in the face of Israel’s acts of aggression. 

The statement's issuance aims to redirect attention from the rebels' inaction regarding Israel's appropriation of land and its airstrikes in Syria.

HTS members, many of whom are former members of Al-Qaeda and ISIL, received support from Israel in the wake of the civil war in Syria that followed the Arab Spring. 

Israeli media disclosed in 2014 that the Israeli military not only offered medical assistance to terrorists fighting in Syria but also maintained connections with them. 

UN observers in the Golan Heights meticulously detailed instances of contact between Israeli troops and rebels, including Syrians being sent into Israel for medical treatment, and the transfer of items and containers, the Times of Israel reported in December 214, citing records maintained by the UN disengagement force in the Golan demilitarized zone.

The rebels are currently attempting to obscure their connections with Israel under the guise of a new name, as they anticipate an increase in anti-regime sentiment due to its aggressive actions in Syria.

 

A prospective US war with Iran is pending

United States interference, at the behest of Netanyahu’s far-right Israel, has left the Middle East in ruins, with over a million dead and open wars raging in Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine, and with Iran on the brink of a nuclear arsenal.

The story is simple, in stark violation of international law, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his ministers claim the right to rule over seven million Palestinians. When Israel’s occupation of Palestinian lands leads to militant resistance, Israel labels the resistance “terrorism” and calls on the US to overthrow the Middle East governments that back the “terrorists.” The US, under the sway of the Israel Lobby, goes to war on Israel’s behalf.

The fall of Syria this past week is the culmination of the US-Israel campaign against Syria that goes back to 1996 with Netanyahu’s arrival to office as Prime Minister. The US-Israel war on Syria escalated in 2011 and 2012, when Barack Obama covertly tasked the CIA with the overthrow of the Syrian Government in Operation Timber Sycamore. That effort finally came to “fruition” this week, after more than 300,000 deaths in the Syrian war since 2011.

Syria’s fall came swiftly because of more than a decade of crushing economic sanctions, the burdens of war, the US seizure of Syria’s oil, Russia’s priorities regarding the conflict in Ukraine, and most immediately, Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah, which was the key military backstop to the Syrian Government. No doubt Assad often misplayed his own hand and faced severe internal discontent, but his regime was targeted for collapse for decades by the US and Israel.

Since 2011, the US-Israel perpetual war on Syria, including bombing, jihadists, economic sanctions, US seizure of Syria’s oil fields, and more, has sunk the Syrian people into misery.

In the immediate two days following the collapse of the government, Israel conducted about 480 strikes across Syria, and completely destroyed the Syrian fleet in Latakia. Pursuing his expansionist agenda, Prime Minister Netanyahu illegally claimed control over the demilitarized buffer zone in the Golan Heights and declared that the Golan Heights will be a part of the State of Israel “for eternity.”

Netanyahu’s ambition to transform the region through war, which dates back almost three decades, is playing out in front of our eyes. In a press conference on December 09, 2024 the Israeli prime minister boasted of an “absolute victory,” justifying the on-going genocide in Gaza and escalating violence throughout the region.

The long history of Israel’s campaign to overthrow the Syrian Government is not widely understood, yet the documentary record is clear. Israel’s war on Syria began with US and Israeli neoconservatives in 1996, who fashioned a “Clean Break” strategy for the Middle East for Netanyahu as he came to office.

The core of the “clean break” strategy called for the Israel (and the US) to reject “land for peace,” the idea that Israel would withdraw from the occupied Palestinian lands in return for peace. Instead, Israel would retain the occupied Palestinian lands, rule over the Palestinian people in an Apartheid state, step-by-step ethnically cleanse the state, and enforce so-called “peace for peace” by overthrowing neighboring governments that resisted Israel’s land claims.

The Clean Break strategy asserts, “Our claim to the land—to which we have clung for hope for 2000 years—is legitimate and noble,” and goes on to state, “Syria challenges Israel on Lebanese soil. An effective approach, and one with which the US can sympathize, would be if Israel seized the strategic initiative along its northern borders by engaging Hizballah, Syria, and Iran, as the principal agents of aggression in Lebanon…”

In his 1996 book Fighting Terrorism, Netanyahu set out the new strategy. Israel would not fight the terrorists; it would fight the states that support the terrorists. More accurately, it would get the US to do Israel’s fighting for it.

 

As he elaborated in 2001, the first and most crucial thing to understand is this: There is no international terrorism without the support of sovereign states.… Take away all this state support, and the entire scaffolding of international terrorism will collapse into dust.

Netanyahu’s strategy was integrated into US foreign policy. Taking out Syria was always a key part of the plan. This was confirmed to General Wesley Clark after 9/11.

He was told, during a visit at the Pentagon, that “we’re going to attack and destroy the governments in seven countries in five years—we’re going to start with Iraq, and then we’re going to move to Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Iran.”

Iraq would be first, then Syria, and the rest. (Netanyahu’s campaign for the Iraq War is spelled out in detail in Dennis Fritz’s new book, Deadly Betrayal. The role of the Israel Lobby is spelled out in Ilan Pappé’s new book, Lobbying for Zionism on Both Sides of the Atlantic). The insurgency that hit US troops in Iraq set back the five-year timeline, but did not change the basic strategy.

The US has by now led or sponsored wars against Iraq (invasion in 2003), Lebanon (US funding and arming Israel), Libya (NATO bombing in 2011), Syria (CIA operation during 2010’s), Sudan (supporting rebels to break Sudan apart in 2011), and Somalia (backing Ethiopia’s invasion in 2006).

A prospective US war with Iran, ardently sought by Israel, is still pending.

Syria to face Libya or Sudan like situation

In a commentary published on December 09, 2024, a Middle East security expert at Princeton University says once the Syrian opposition gets rid of their common enemy and the process of shaping the future begins, their differences will surface, and it remains uncertain how reconcilable these differences will be. Even if there are no internal disagreements among the opposition, their conflicts with the Kurds and Turkey's stance on this issue alone pose a major obstacle to establishing a consensus-based order. This could keep Syria in a prolonged political and security crisis, similar to Libya and Sudan.

Following is the text of the article:

The Baathist system in Syria, after nearly 60 years of rule, has been overthrown and Bashar al-Assad has fled to Moscow. Syria stood alongside Iran during its invasion by Saddam Hussein, and Iran, in turn, stood with the Syrian and Iraqi governments during the assault by the Islamic State (IS) group and al-Qaeda on Syria and Iraq from 2011 to 2017.

The alliance of Russia, Iran and the Axis of Resistance led to the defeat of militant groups and the preservation of the sovereignty of these two Arab countries. However, at the same time, Assad's government had no alignment with democracy, and western and Arab leaders were fearful and angry about the extensive presence and influence of Iran and Russia in Syria. In any case, the overthrow of the Syrian political system has created a major shift in the region's geopolitics.

In the short term, Iran, Russia, Iraq and the Axis of Resistance will be the main losers from Assad's downfall. The collapse of the Assad government will be a major blow to the axis, weakening Iran's geopolitical influence in the region.

Syria has been the only land route for the supply and transfer of weapons to Hezbollah, and cutting off this route not only creates a strategic challenge for Hezbollah but also weakens Iran's leverage in the Palestinian issue. Moreover, the potential spread of insecurity to Iraq and Iran - and the weakening of Iran's diplomatic support - are significant consequences for Iran and the axis.

Turkey main winner

The fall of the Syrian government could also pose threats to Iraq's security, both in terms of the Kurdish region and from the aspirations of extremist groups for Sunni-majority areas in the country, as well as the potential activation of IS sleeper cells.

In the short term, Israel might find an opportunity to further weaken Hezbollah and the axis in the entire region. However, the activities of new Islamist armed groups at its borders, the rise of Islamist movements and the potential impact on Syria's future stance on the Palestinian issue and the occupied Golan Heights could increase long-term national security threats for Israel.

In the short term, the US and the West will be winners because the fall of Assad will significantly reduce Russian and Iranian influence in the region.

However, the Islamist group that seized Damascus and toppled Assad, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), was proscribed as a terror organization by the Britain in 2017 and the US in 2018 because of its links to al-Qaeda. HTS is led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani (real name Ahmed al-Sharaa), who was designated a terrorist by the US in 2013.

It is uncertain how the collapse of Syria's secular government and the rise of Islamists will impact the long-term interests of the US, with the differing perspectives between the US and Turkey on the Kurdish issue, the ambiguity surrounding the future actions of the opposition and the prospect of increasing instability in the region.

Turkey is the main winner. Ankara may hope to resolve the Syrian refugee crisis in Turkey, exert more effective control over the Kurds and strengthen its role in the Palestinian issue, as well as cement alliances with like-minded groups in the region.

While Arab countries are also pleased with the reduction of Iran's influence in Syria, the military operations of HTS and other militant groups were managed and organied by Turkey, all of which have an affiliation with the Muslim Brotherhood.

Several Arab countries, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan, are opponents of the Muslim Brotherhood and its ideology. Therefore, Turkey's power projection in the region and the Brotherhood's potential future dominance in Syria could be perceived as a new threat by some Arab countries.

Regarding the political future of Syria, two scenarios can be imagined: a peaceful transition to a new system; or a Libyan and Sudanese-style outcome.

A peaceful transition could be achieved if the opposition continues with its moderate rhetoric and actions. However, it is composed of diverse and fragmented groups that have united solely to eliminate a common enemy.

Once this shared enemy is removed and the process of shaping the future begins, their differences will surface, and it remains uncertain how reconcilable these differences will be.

Even if there are no internal disagreements among the opposition, their conflicts with the Kurds and Turkey's stance on this issue alone pose a major obstacle to establishing a consensus-based order. This could keep Syria in a prolonged political and security crisis, similar to Libya and Sudan.

Another important factor is the conflicting interests of the many external actors, who will each try to increase their influence over Syria's situation in various ways.

In any scenario, future developments in Syria will have a significant impact on the region's geopolitics. Therefore, finding a solution that is acceptable to both regional and global powers is crucial.

In April 2017, at the Carnegie Conference in Washington, I proposed 10 principles for resolving the Syrian crisis: 1) Resolving the Syrian crisis through diplomacy, not war; 2) A face-saving solution for all the main parties involved;  3) Serious and collective cooperation to eradicate terrorism from Syria; 4) Preserving Syria's territorial integrity and sovereignty; 5) Preventing the collapse of the Syrian army and security institutions; 6) Forming an inclusive government in Syria; 7) Building a new Syria based on the will and vote of the majority of the Syrian nation; 8) Ensuring the protection of minorities in Syria; 9) Holding free elections under the supervision of the United Nations regarding the new government and constitution of Syria; 10) A comprehensive package of economic aid for Syria's reconstruction, the return of refugees, and other humanitarian issues.

Although there was no receptive ear for these ideas at that time, today, these 10 principles could still be a comprehensive and sustainable package to resolve the Syrian crisis.

Courtesy: Tehran Times

Saudi Arabia blames veto power abuse

Ambassador Abdulaziz Al-Wasil, Saudi Arabia’s permanent representative to the United Nations, criticized the abuse of veto power and reiterated the Kingdom’s call for a ceasefire in Gaza while addressing the United Nations General Assembly’s (UNGA) 10th emergency special session on Palestine.

The session focused on two key resolutions: one supporting the mandate of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) and the other demanding a ceasefire in Gaza.

He also welcomed the ceasefire in Lebanon, condemning Israeli violations of the agreement, and emphasized the importance of UNRWA's role while denouncing Israeli actions against the agency, including targeted legislation and efforts to undermine its mandate.

The ambassador highlighted Saudi Arabia’s steadfast support for the Palestinian people, advocating for peace based on the two-state solution, the Arab Peace Initiative, and international legitimacy resolutions.

He called for active participation in the high-level international conference on resolving the Palestinian issue, which Saudi Arabia and France will co-chair in June in New York.

Al-Wasil also condemned Israeli attacks on Syrian territories, stressing that these violations undermine Syria’s stability and sovereignty.

He reaffirmed the Arab and Syrian identity of the occupied Golan Heights and condemned Israel’s continued disregard for international law.

During the session, the Saudi delegation voted in favor of both resolutions. The resolution supporting UNRWA’s mandate was adopted with 159 votes in favor, 9 against, and 11 abstentions. The resolution demanding a ceasefire in Gaza received 158 votes in favor, 9 against, and 13 abstentions.

The ambassador reaffirmed Saudi Arabia's commitment to promoting peace, condemning aggression, and supporting the Palestinian cause.

 

PSX benchmark index up 5%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), despite experiencing volatility recorded a hefty increase of 5,248 points in benchmark index. Market closed at another high of 114,302 points, marking an increase of 5%WoW on Friday, December 13, 2024.

With the CPI remaining below the 5% threshold and T-Bills yields in the recent auction dropping to 12% for the 3-months and 6-months paper, down 100bps and 89bps respectively, investors’ optimism has been bolstered, fueling expectations for continued monetary easing in the upcoming (MPC) meeting scheduled for December 16, 2024.

The news about potential imposition of additional tax on banks put the sector under pressure.

Automotive industry sales for November 2024 were reported at 13,856 units, up 37%YoY.

Workers’ remittances grew to US$2.9 billion, up 29.1%YoY.

Foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by US$13 million to US$12.0 billion as of December 06, 2024.

Average daily trading volume declined by 19.0%WoW to 1.4 billion shares, from 1.7 billion shares traded in the earlier week.

PKR remained stable against the greenback, closing the week at PKR278.12 to a US$.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) assets under management mutual funds exceeded PKR3 trillion mark, 2) Petroleum Division will soon start issuing notices to CPPs for disconnecting gas supply, 3) Punjab government to give free solar panels to 100,000 households, 4) National Savings reduces profit rates by up to 250bps and 5) PAF announced to buy PIA engineering unit for PKR6.5 billion.

Oil & Gas Exploration companies, Mutual Funds, Oil & Gas Marketing Companies, Refinery and Miscellaneous were amongst the top performers, while Commercial Banks, Modarabas, Textile Spinning, Synthetic & Rayon and Automobile Parts & Accessories were amongst the laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Brokers with a net sell of US$3.3 million, while Mutual Funds absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$8.6 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: MARI, SHEL, ATRL, NML, and PSO, while laggards included: ABL, BAFL, MEBL, BAHL and BOP.

Continuation of monetary easing due to disinflationary environment and improving macroeconomic environment would make investment in equities more appealing, currently trading at P/E of 5.7x and DY of 8.7%.

Aforementioned factors, along with declining external financing requirement under the IMF program, would keep foreigners’ interest alive.

AKD Securities recommends sectors that benefit from monetary easing and structural reforms. However, modest economic recovery may limit the upside for cyclicals.

Top picks of the brokerage house include, OGDC, PPL, MCB, HBL, FFC, PSO, LUCK, MLCF, FCCL and INDU.

 

Iran to lose oil sales to Syria

According to Argus, the removal of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad from power over the weekend has not only dealt a major blow to Iran and its designs for the Levant region, but it has also eliminated a critically important outlet for Tehran's sanctions-hit oil. Iran produced around 3.33 million bpd during September-November.

Long considered Iran's top Arab ally, Assad enjoyed significant military and economic support from Tehran over the past decade, as Iran saw him as the focal point for its regional influence. Syria also provided the main supply routes to Lebanon's Hezbollah militia, the crown jewel in Iran's so-called ‘Axis of Resistance'.

Part of Iran's assistance was in the form of shipments of crude and refined oil products to help Assad's regime meet fuel demand in the areas under its control.

Once more than a 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) producer, Syria's crude output has been on the decline over the past three decades. Just before the start of the civil war in 2011, production had already slipped below 400,000 bpd. lately, it was less than 100,000 bpd, and only around 16,000 bpd of that comes from fields in areas under the former government's control.

This left Assad's regime — itself restricted by western sanctions — critically short of crude to feed its two refineries in Banias and Homs, even though both have been operating below capacity because of damage sustained during the civil war.

Iran helped plug the gap by sending crude and products to the 140,000 bpd Banias refinery on Syria's Mediterranean coast on an ad hoc basis.

Iranian crude exports to Syria averaged around 55,000 bpd in January-November this year, down from 80,000 bpd in 2023 and 72,000 bpd in 2022, according to data from trade analytics firm Kpler.

Vortexa puts shipments higher at 60,000 to 70,000 bpd so far this year and 90,000 bpd in 2023. Iran has also been sending around 10,000 to 20,000 bpd of refined products to Syria in recent years, according to consultancy FGE. Iran's oil exports to Syria have mostly been in the form of grants to support the Assad regime. The government's collapse could put an end to these flows for the time being, while Tehran takes a wait and see approach to what comes next in Syria.

The first sign of that came over the weekend when the Iran-flagged Lotus, which left Kharg Island on November 11, destined for Banias, reversed course just as it was about to enter the Suez Canal. The tanker is now headed back through the Red Sea without specifying a destination.

Although supplies to Syria make up a very small share of Iran's overall 1.6 million to 1.8 million bpd of crude exports, Tehran may not want to lose it as an outlet for good, given the difficulties of finding a replacement while sanctions remain in place.

"The flow will stop, at least for the time being," said Iman Nasseri, managing director for the Middle East at FGE.

Iran will want to continue supplying this oil to Syria, or else it may be forced to cut production by anywhere between 50,000 to 100,000 bpd if it is unable to ultimately place those barrels in China. Alternatively, Iran could opt to build the volumes it holds offshore in floating storage.

"We usually see the same tankers shuttling between Iran and Syria," according to Vortexa's senior oil analyst Armen Azizian. "If that trade subsides, we could see some of these tankers unemployed or put into floating storage, which would rise, at least in the short-term," he said.

Lotus is one of these tankers, having made the trip to Syria and back five times in 2023, and twice so far in 2024. The crude cargo it is carrying now "could be returned to Iran and put into onshore tanks or go into floating storage off Iran," Azizian said.