Israeli roadmap for Gaza ceasefire

President Biden announced the terms of an Israeli-led proposal Friday that includes a three-part roadmap toward an end to fighting and the release of all remaining hostages taken on October 07, 2023, giving the strongest indication yet for a potential end to the war between Israel and Hamas.

“After intensive diplomacy carried out by my team, my many conversations with leaders of Israel, Qatar and Egypt, and other Middle Eastern countries, Israel has offered a comprehensive new proposal. It’s a roadmap to an enduring cease-fire and the release of all hostages,” Biden said.

He said that while the proposal has been transmitted to Hamas via Qatar, he indicated the US-designated terrorist organization that runs the Gaza Strip had not yet formally accepted the plan.

“This is truly a decisive moment. Israel has made their proposal. Hamas says it wants a ceasefire. This deal is an opportunity to prove whether they really mean it. Hamas needs to take the deal,” Biden said.

Biden also pleaded from the White House podium for Israelis to back the deal, arguing the military has devastated Hamas since the war began on October 07, 2023.

While adding he knows there are Israelis who may not agree with the negotiated deal, he warned against allowing for an indefinite war.

“I know there are those in Israel who will not agree with this plan and will call for the war to continue indefinitely. Some are even in the government coalition. They’ve made it clear they want to occupy Gaza, they want to keep fighting for years, the hostages are not a priority for them,” he said. “I urge Israel to stand behind this deal, despite whatever pressure comes.”

When questioned if Biden meant that Israel has effectively won the war against Hamas, senior administration officials on a call with reporters after Biden spoke said Israel has had success in “degrading Hamas’ military capacity.” 

The official added that the offer wouldn’t have been possible three months ago.

Biden laid out the proposal in three phases:

1- An initial phase would include a six-week ceasefire, then a withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza, and the release of all remaining hostages taken from Israel on October 07.

2- It also includes parameters for internally displaced Palestinians to return to their homes.

3- Reconstruction efforts of the devastated coastal enclave.

According to the arrangement, each of the three phases would be about 42 days long, a senior administration official outlined.

Yemen targets US aircraft carrier

Yemen's military spokesman says the country's armed forces have targeted US aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Red Sea in response to deadly overnight attacks by the United State and its allies on the country.

“The missile force and the naval force of the Yemeni Armed Forces carried out a joint military operation targeting the US aircraft carrier ‘Eisenhower’ in the Red Sea,” said Yahya Saree in a televised statement. 

“The operation was carried out with a number of winged and ballistic missiles, the hit was accurate and direct, thanks to Allah,” he added.

Saree said this was a response to aerial strikes by the US and Britain on several targets across the Arab country, which he said targeted civilians in a “blatant violation of all international laws and a full-fledged war crime." 

The US and British warplanes attacked the Yemeni capital Sana’a as well as the governorates of Hodeidah and Taiz.

Yemeni officials say the attacks on Hodeidah targeted the Radio building and the Coast Guard facility and several commercial ships, killing at least 16 people and injuring 41 others.

United States and Britain target Yemen

The United States and Britain carried out a series of strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, according to US Central Command.

In addition, the US unilaterally destroyed eight aerial attack drones over Yemen and the Red Sea.

The coalition strikes targeted 13 Houthi targets in parts of Yemen controlled by the Iran-backed group.

This marked the fifth round of coalition strikes against the Houthis, who have repeatedly attacked US Navy ships and commercial vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The two waterways, separated by the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, are critical to international shipping routes.

The last round of strikes occurred on February 24, as the US and Britain targeted Houthi weapons and radar sites.

The US has tried to disrupt the Houthi’s ability to target commercial vessels and US warships by going after their primary weapons, including anti-ship cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones. The US has also destroyed maritime drones and underwater drones. The resumption of strikes follows an uptick in Houthi attacks over the last week.

During this past week, the US destroyed Houthi missile launchers in Yemen and intercepted aerial attack drones.

On Tuesday, three Houthi anti-ship ballistic missiles struck a Greek-owned and operated merchant ship in the Red Sea, according to US Central Command. There were no injuries, according to Central Command, and the M/V Lax was able to continue its voyage.

The US spearheaded Operation Prosperity Guardian in December to protect international shipping, banding together with other nations to intercept Houthi attacks.

The aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and a number of destroyers have patrolled the waters of the region to intercept Houthi launches.

The USS Carney, a guided missile destroyer that recently returned from the Middle East, had 51 engagements in six months, which Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said last week was “the most direct Navy engagement with a foe since World War II.”

Pakistan Stock Exchange remains under pressure

Pakistan Stock Exchange remained volatile throughout the week, with early correction leading the benchmark index to dip below the psychological barrier of 75,000 points. However, the bulls staged comeback on the last trading day, gaining 1,000 points.

 Overall, the KSE-100 index ended the week down by 105 points or 0.14%WoW, closing at 75,878 points on May 31, 2024.

Uncertainty surrounding the upcoming budget fueled volatility and profit-taking. With just a week remaining before the budget announcement, concerns have risen over the IMF’s high tax proposals.

Reports suggest abolishing all sales tax exemptions, except for some essential food items, and increasing the standard GST from 18% to 19%.

The budget announcement is expected to coincide with the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, potentially causing delays as Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif will be on an official visit to China.

May 2024 CPI inflation is projected to be 12.8% YoY. As the inflation outlook eases, the cut-off yields in the latest T-Bills auction dropped by 60bps for 3-month papers. Similarly, secondary market yields for 3-month papers fell by 118bps to 20.44%. The declining yields indicate a potential coupon rate cut in the upcoming MPC, which brought some positivity to the market.

However, with the budget’s impact still uncertain, an imminent interest rate cut in the upcoming MPC seems unlikely.

With an overall volatility in market, participation also decreased by 8.5%WoW, with the average daily traded volume falling to 511 million shares from 558 million shares a week ago.

On the currency front, PKR depreciated by 0.04%WoW to close at PKR278.33/US$.

Other major news flows during the week included: FBR announced plan to collect PKR1.296 trillion through duties, 2) Country borrowed US$7.142 billion during Jul-Apr period, and 3) Credit to private sector declined 39.7%YoY.

Top performing sectors were: Inv. Banks/ securities, Leather & Tanneries, Engineering were amongst the top performers, while laggards included: Transport, Woollen, and Property.

Flow wise, major net selling was recorded by Mutual Funds with a net sell of US$8.9 million. Insurance companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$13.1 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: MUGHAL, FABL, FCCL, SYS, and SCBPL, while the laggards included: SHEL, PSX, BNWM, GLAXO, and YOUW.

Market performance is expected to hinge on the upcoming Federal Budget 2025, with the next MPC meeting also remaining in the spotlight.

Though, the possibility of a coupon rate cut is slim, however, any cut would likely boost positivity, especially in the cyclical sector.

Following the budget approval, the next IMF program will take center stage and become a key market trigger in the near term.

 

 

Gaza the most expensive war in Israel’s history

When Israel vastly ramped up defense spending in the 1970s to address security risks exposed in the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the economic side effects were devastating. Economists are now worried about a repeat.

The ongoing war in Gaza is the most expensive in the country’s history: The central bank has estimated the total cost of the conflict will run to 250 billion shekels or US$67.4 billion through 2025.

Defense spending before the war was at an all-time low of 4.5% of GDP. It’s set to double this year to 9%, according to Manuel Trajtenberg, a professor emeritus in the economics department of Tel Aviv University.

“The decisive test will be the government’s ability to lower the defense-spending-to-GDP ratio back to reasonable levels within several years,” he says. “Otherwise, we may slide back into another lost decade.”

Working in Israel’s favor is that its starting point was strong. Over the past 15 years, the nation’s per-capita GDP has risen above that of Britain, France and Japan.

But costs are apparent. When Hamas attacked and some 300,000 reservists rushed into uniform, Israel’s powerhouse tech industry suddenly found itself short of labor, while businesses in and around the Tel Aviv area lost some of their best customers.

With Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu having committed billions of shekels for spending demanded by his ultra-Orthodox coalition partners, many economists worry of a “spiral of collapse” — where Israel’s better-educated, high-earning citizens choose to emigrate rather than shoulder the fiscal burden of supporting large Orthodox families.

Scores of economists conveyed that message recently to the government, in a letter calling for an end to public support for schools that don’t train students for the modern labor market and requiring ultra-Orthodox to be drafted.

Israel already underinvests in areas such as education and health compared with developed economies. If policymakers look to free up funds for military upgrades by paring back those priorities, along with transportation and welfare, it’s the economy that may pay the price.

 

US pier constructed off Gaza broken apart

The temporary pier constructed by the US military to transport aid into Gaza broke apart and sustained damage in heavy seas on Tuesday in a major blow to the US-led effort to create a maritime corridor for humanitarian supplies into the war-torn enclave, the Pentagon said.

The pier was damaged and sections of the pier need rebuilding and repairing, Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said on Tuesday. The pier will be removed from its location on the Gaza coast over the next 48 hours and taken to the Israeli port of Ashdod, where US Central Command will carry out repairs, Singh said. The repairs will take more than a week, further delaying the effort to get the maritime corridor fully operating.

Part of the pier, which consists of a narrow causeway to drive aid into Gaza and a wider parking area to drop off supplies transported by ship, had disconnected on Sunday, the officials said. The parking area will have to be reconnected to the causeway before the pier can be used again.

The damage, first reported by NBC News, occurred three days after heavy seas forced two small US Army vessels to beach in Israel, according to US Central Command, while another two vessels broke free of their moorings and were anchored near the pier.

“I believe most of our soldiers were able to remain on the vessels and still are currently on them,” Singh said during Tuesday’s Pentagon press briefing. “And ... within the next 24 or 48 hours, the Israeli Navy will be helping push those vessels back and hopefully they’ll be fully operational by then.”

The pier, which cost US$320 million, had only begun operating on May 17 when heavy seas forced the maritime shipments to stop one week later on May 24, two days before part of the pier disconnected. It is unclear when shipments will resume.

The temporary pier, called the Joint Logistics Over the Shore (JLOTS), requires very good sea conditions to operate. CNN reported previously that JLOTS can only be operated safely in a maximum of 3-foot waves and winds less than approximately 15 miles per hour.

Heavier sea conditions delayed the deployment of the pier for several weeks, as the system sat docked in the Israeli port of Ashdod waiting for favorable conditions.

The US has stressed that the temporary pier is only meant to augment humanitarian shipments going through the land crossings between Israel and Gaza.

On Thursday, Vice Adm. Brad Cooper, deputy commander of US Central Command, said 820 metric tons of aid had been delivered through the pier to the Gaza beach, where the United Nations was responsible for distributing it to the Palestinian population. The Pentagon said Thursday that more than 1,000 metric tons of aid had been delivered before the temporary pier had to halt operations.

Daniel Dieckhaus, the director of USAID’s Levant Response Management Team, told reporters Thursday that there were “thousands and thousands of tons” of aid waiting in Cyprus to be delivered through the maritime corridor. But those shipments are now paused with the temporary pier inoperable

Iran: Finding Ebrahim Raisi Replacement

The next president of Iran is likely to be a hardliner unwaveringly loyal to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with a background in the Revolutionary Guards. It has to be someone with an unblemished background and devoid of political rivalries.

It is believed that Khamenei, Iran's ageing ultimate decision maker, seeks a fiercely loyal president in the June 28 election to run the country day-to-day and be a trusted ally who can ensure stability, amid manoeuvring over the eventual succession to his own position.

Registration for candidates opens on Thursday, although that is only the beginning of a process that will see hopefuls vetted by the Guardian Council, a hardline watchdog body that disqualifies candidates without always publicizing the reason.

The primary goal seems to be securing the election of a president who is intensely loyal to the supreme leader and his ideals. The victory of a hardline president is aimed shaping a smooth transition at the pinnacle of power, nevertheless presents a conundrum for the ruling clerics managing the vote next month.

To ensure the winner is a diehard Khamenei loyalist, it is likely the upcoming election will be dominated by hardliners.

The west fears that restricting the choice on the ballot is likely to dampen voters' interest and keep turnout low.

The quandary is a familiar one in Iran. In a race where those who run are carefully reviewed, typically the challenge for the clerical establishment is securing a high turnout.

The Guardian Council will publish the list of qualified candidates on June 11, 2024.

Raisi clinched victory in 2021 election on a turnout of about 49% - a significant drop from the 70% seen in 2017 and 76% in 2013.

Critics say the turnout reflected discontent over economic hardship and social and political restrictions which drove months of protests ignited by the death of a young woman arrested by the morality police in 2022.

Including low-key moderate candidates on the ballot might be a way to attract a larger turnout, some analysts say.

Currently sidelined from power, reformists remain faithful to Iran's theocratic rule but advocate improved relations with the West, and gradual moves towards more freedom of expression and a loosening of strict Islamic dress code.

Reformist former senior official Mohammad Ali Abtahi said the pro-reform camp would contest the election if its candidate was permitted to participate.

The cycle of low voter turnout, which has ensured hardliner victories in past parliament and presidential elections, can be changed.

The reformists' electoral strength remains unclear, as some voters believe they failed to bring greater freedoms in the periods when they were in power.

The 2022 protests exposed a widening breach between the reformists and demonstrators demanding regime change.

Even allowing a few known moderates to contest election might not be enough to get people to turn out. Voters have been repeatedly misled by the idea that reform-minded candidates ... would produce real change.

A new president would be unlikely to make any change to Iran's nuclear or foreign policy, both of which are controlled by the supreme leader.

The registration of candidates could include Parviz Fattah, a former Guards member who heads an investment fund linked to the leader, and Saeed Jalili, a former chief nuclear negotiator who in 2001 ran Khamenei's office for four years.

Interim President Mohammad Mokhber and former parliament speaker and a Khamenei adviser, Ali Larijani, have also been mentioned in Iranian media as possible candidates, Larijani was barred from participating in 2021 presidential race.

 

Rafah strike doesn’t cross red line, says Kirby

Since October 07, 2023 Israel has killed over 35,000 people in Gaza, mostly women and children. More than 80% of the enclave has been turned into heap of debris. Infrastructure has been destroyed completely and Gazans are living in famine like situation. However, the US administration still believes that Israel has not crossed red line. Will the White House spokesperson John Kirby tell the world US definition of red line in case of Rafah?

The White House on Tuesday indicated an Israeli strike that killed dozens of Palestinians in Rafah did not cross a “red line” that would lead to a change in US policy.

Multiple administration officials in press briefings Tuesday described the images out of Rafah as “heartbreaking,” “tragic” and “horrific.” But there was no sign of an impending policy change as a result, because it was an airstrike and not a major ground operation.

“We still don’t believe that a major ground operation in Rafah is warranted. We still don’t want to see the Israelis, as we say, smash into Rafah with large units over large pieces of territory. We still believe that, and we haven’t seen that at this point,” Kirby told reporters.

“As a result of this strike on Sunday, I have no policy changes to speak to,” he added. “It just happened. The Israelis are going to investigate it. We’re going to be taking great interest in what they find in that investigation. And we’ll see where it goes from there.”

President Biden earlier this month warned he would stop supplying Israel with offensive weapons such as bombs and artillery shells if it launched a long-promised invasion of Rafah.

National security adviser Jake Sullivan last week told reporters there was “no mathematical formula” for assessing Israel’s conduct in Rafah, but officials would look at “whether there is a lot of death and destruction from this operation or if it is more precise and proportional.”

Administration officials said Tuesday that Sunday’s airstrike, which was the deadliest incident in Rafah since Israel launched an offensive there, did not amount to what the White House has warned against.

“It is still our assessment that what is happening in Rafah and what the [Israeli military] are doing, it is limited in scope,” Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters.

Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the Rafah fire as tragic and said Israel is “investigating it thoroughly and will learn from it, as is our policy and longstanding conduct.”

Israeli officials reportedly told the US that shrapnel from a targeted strike on senior Hamas leaders struck a fuel tank near a displaced persons camp.

But the resulting carnage underscored international alarm over the conduct of Israel’s military operations, and it came only days after a top United Nations court issued a ruling for Israel to halt its military operations in Rafah.

 

 

 

Tanker owners await OPEC Plus announcement

OPEC Plus is scheduled to hold its next meeting on Sunday and its decisions on production strategy will have far reaching implications for the tanker owners.

According to Seatrade Maritime News, sector analysts say the picture in far from clear. In its weekly report, Gibson suggests that there could be three possible outcomes.

1- OPEC Plus members could decide to continue with the production cuts in place today.

2- They could implement further cuts, allowing oil producers outside the cartel to boost their market share.

3- They could decide to ease voluntary production cuts to meet the wishes of members hoping to boost oil revenue streams. 

OPEC Plus member states account for more than 40% of global crude tanker trade where rising oil demand in China is likely to underpin crude oil growth of 2.2 million barrels per day this year, according to the projections.

Crude demand is also climbing in other non-OECD countries, notably India, and other countries in Asia, Middle East, and Latin America, Gibson said.

However, the broker notes that few analysts are as bullish about oil demand prospects.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), for example, reckons that likely growth could reach 1.1 million barrels per day, just half the OPEC Plus estimate. The IEA reckons that demand will grow more slowly now that the post-Covid surge has come to an end.

Meanwhile, declining oil demand in Europe is likely to reduce OECD demand which, the IEA suggests, could fall by 140,000 bpd this year. This is the result of the industrial downturn and a mild winter.

Gasoil demand in all three OECD regions over the first quarter fell by 330,000 bpd year-on-year.

Gibson points to lower oil prices, with Brent crude now trading at around US$81-83 a barrel, down from an average of US $89 in April.

These lower prices may suggest a current oversupply, a factor supported by weaker demand growth. These prevailing market fundamentals may deter OPEC Plus from loosening their production cuts too soon, Gibson said.  

Iran imports 4.6 tons gold bars

ran Customs Administration (IRICA) has reported that 4.6 tons of gold worth US$330 million were cleared through customs ports and imported into the country during the first two months of the current year.

The figure is 3.8 times more than the same period last year, when 1.2 tons of gold worth US$79 million were imported into the country, IRNA reported citing figures from IRICA.

Imam Khomeini Airport Customs was the origin of over 91% of gold imports in the first two months of this year.

Late in 2022, the Iranian government approved a plan to facilitate the import of gold as part of its anti-sanctions policy, allowing businesses to import gold to settle their export-related foreign exchange dues to the government.

According to a new directive from the IRICA, imports of gold are exempt from direct taxes, until further notice.

The directive states that the import of various types of gold will continue to be exempt from value-added tax (VAT) as well.

 

Gold price on the rise

Gold prices held steady on Tuesday as the dollar eased, while investors looked forward to key US inflation data that could offer clues on how soon the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates.

Spot gold price was flat at US$2,350.85 per ounce by 0350 GMT, after rising about 1% in the previous session. US gold futures rose 0.8% to US$2,352.00.

"A very strong dollar picture supported by a change in the US monetary policy stance where the Fed starts looking for evidence to kick start interest rate hikes instead of easing could be a major risk as we could see a further corrective move in spot gold," said Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst for Asia Pacific at OANDA.

However, in the short term, spot gold is still more skewed towards the positive side rather than the negative side and US$2,310 is a key short-term support for this week, Wong added.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is due on Friday.

Fed meeting minutes released last week showed that the policy response, for now, would involve maintaining the benchmark policy rate at its current level but also reflected discussions of possible further hikes.

Traders' bets indicated rising skepticism that the US central bank will lower rates more than once in 2024, currently pricing in about a 62% chance of a rate cut by November according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Bullion is known as an inflation hedge, but higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

Vietnam's central bank will stop auctioning gold in the domestic market and launch a new measure to stabilize domestic prices, it said on Monday.

 

US Memorial Day: Remembering Cost of War

Memorial Day in the United States is traditionally a time to honor the men and women who have died in military service. However, it is crucial to use this day to acknowledge the broader and often overlooked consequences of war. We must amplify the voices that expose the true and complete cost of conflict, recommit to peace, and call for an end to the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

What is the point of Memorial Day if not to remember all those who suffer in wars and to renew our commitment to peace?

It is imperative to draw the attention of US citizens to the fact that soldiers are far from the only ones who pay the ultimate sacrifice. The horrifying and unforgettable images emerging from Rafah demand our attention and compassion.

Modern wars have resulted in far more civilian casualties than military deaths. The current situation in Gaza is not merely a war; it is a genocide carried out by an apartheid state, funded and supplied by the United States.

Since the latest Israeli assault on Gaza began, more than 36,000 Palestinians have been killed, including at least 15,000 children. These numbers are staggering and must not be forgotten.

We must also remember the estimated 300,000 to 500,000 Iraqi civilians who lost their lives during the US invasion and occupation that began 21 years ago.

Similarly, over 70,000 Afghans were killed during America's so-called war on terrorism. The uncounted and unknown casualties of US imperialism through the ages add to this grim toll.

The losses suffered in wars cannot be measured merely in numbers. Each life taken represents shattered dreams, unfulfilled promises, and untapped human potential. War devastates families, communities, and entire nations. But perhaps the greatest loss is our humanity, which is eroded every time we allow such violence to continue.

Three months ago, Aaron Bushnell performed an extreme act of resistance, sacrificing his life to protest the genocide in Gaza, stating that "this is what our ruling class has decided will be normal." We must reject this normalization of violence and refuse to let it become our reality.

Let this Memorial Day be a reminder of all who suffer and die in conflicts worldwide. Let it inspire us to seek peace, justice, and humanity in our actions and policies.

Does the next British leader have a plan?

On May22, 2024, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called snap elections for July 04, 2024. Polls suggest that the opposition Labour Party—led by the centrist MP Keir Starmer—will sweep to victory, putting an end to 14 years of Conservative leadership. But what are Keir Starmer’s economic policies?

Thus far, Starmer has focused on small-scale policy pledges, such as hiring extra teachers, cutting hospital waiting times, and improving border security—a cautious approach to policymaking that contrasts with the large challenges the country faces.

Sluggish economic growth

One key challenge for Starmer will be improving Britain’s economy. After easily and consistently outperforming the Euro area economy in the years prior to the 2016 Brexit vote, the Britain has underperformed since. This is despite the tailwind of a population which has boomed by around 2.5 million in the intervening years on surging immigration from outside the EU.

Analysts forecast Britain GDP growth to roughly track Euro area GDP growth over our forecast horizon to 2028. Given higher population growth in the UK, this means the Britain’s GDP per capita growth will actually lag behind that of the Euro area. Starmer has pledged to make Britain the G7’s top-performing economy; but analysts see little chance of this happening. That said, the labor market will be one saving grace: The unemployment rate is hovering close to 4% and should remain there in the coming years, which would be below the G7 average.

Strained public finances

Government finances are likely to present Starmer with further difficulties. Weak growth, together with rising spending pressure from an aging population and the Covid-19 pandemic, has translated into a large budget deficit and stubbornly high public debt in recent years. And public debt is set to stay above 100% of GDP over our forecast horizon.

This will likely tie Starmer’s hands and prevent lavish new spending commitments—particularly given the still-fresh memory of the ill-fated attempt by former PM Liz Truss to play fast and loose with fiscal discipline, which resulted in a sharp spike in market interest rates.

Damaged cross-Channel trade ties

Finally, Starmer will have to grapple with the Britain-EU relations. The Britain-EU trade deal has led to a raft of non-tariff barriers on both goods and services trade with Europe which have hampered both British exports and investment into the country.

While Sunak has succeeded in making ties with Brussels more cordial following persistent political frictions under the premiership of Boris Johnson, the trade deal remains threadbare. A Labour government would likely look to work more closely with the bloc in certain economic sectors, but has pledged not to region the EU, the Single Market, or the customs union, which will continue to hamper exports and investment ahead.

Insight from Analysts

 “Much will depend on the size of Labour’s potential majority: a comfortable majority would make some of the party’s policies, such as overhauling the labour market, realistic and actionable.

However, few of the Labour members of parliament (MPs) that will end up in government as junior ministers have experience in government. Labour will face significant challenges, given that many of the major issues facing the next administration will require large amounts of money to fix (including the National Health Service). Its period in office is therefore likely to be challenging.”

Economic situation

 “The Britain economy has underperformed the US and the Eurozone since the start of the pandemic. The slump in 2020 was deeper and the subsequent recovery levelled off in 2022 even more so than in the Eurozone in the wake of the surge in energy and food prices. The strong Q1 GDP data partly correct an unexpectedly weak finish to 2023. The sharp 2.3% drop in imports, which boosted the net trade component in Q1, was probably a one-off. However, the data also suggest that the UK economy may have started to make up some of the lost ground.

 

 

 

Iranian oil industry achievements under Raisi

In a talk show on national TV, Iranian Oil Minister Javad Oji, explained how much was the late president, Ebrahim Raisi serious about developing oil industry projects.

Oji said that since the victory of the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the country had witnessed desirable achievements in the oil sector but none of them were comparable with the great steps taken during the ruling of the 13th administration; which took office in August 2021 under the leadership of President Raisi. 

“Before we come together in 13th administration, my knowledge of the late president Ayatollah Raisi was limited to his activities at holy shrine of Imam Reza but it culminated when he was elected as Iranian president and formed the cabinet in which I was appointed as the minister of petroleum,” Oji said.

The minister said, during the tenure of the 13th administration led by Ebrahim Raisi as the president “we witnessed great leaps forward in view of implementation of oil industry projects, developing upstream and downstream projects including developing oil and gas fields, relying on domestic capabilities, rising oil exports and specifically paying attention to social responsibility.”

Raisi insisted on people’s participation in the implementation of oil industry projects, he said adding “in the first months of the 13th administration taking office, we travelled to oil-rich regions, where by looking at flares the president got worried and ordered removing gas flares by collecting the associated gases.”

He continued: we followed the president demand seriously so that at the end of last Iranian calendar year, 1402, March 20, 2024, we succeeded in collecting 11.5 million cubic meters of associated gases per day which is going to rise to 30 million cubic meters a day at the end of current Iranian calendar year on March19, 2025.

He also said energy imbalances, optimizing energy use and joint oil and gas fields development were among the main concerns of the president so that in every meeting we had he was seeking briefing about the progress of the oil industry projects, insisting on rising production and exports, creating jobs as well as oil revenues situation.

According to Oji, the president, in all his working tours, which went beyond 10 visits to oil industry installations, was very willing to talk with experts insisting that the petroleum ministry should do its best to persuade Iranian elites and experts not to leave the country and it was after his emphasize on the issue that we could absorb more than 900 graduates of Petroleum University of Technology.

He further noted that a great part of Iran’s success to raise oil exports was due to his trips to foreign countries, in which he was presenting Iranian capabilities, trying to build confidence in relations with other countries.

The Oil Ministry was the most successful department of the administration in view of attracting foreign investment in Raisi’s administration, he said, adding the president was very insistent that selling materials as a row should be stopped.

“The 13th administration could raise oil exports by 2.5 times despite harsh sanctions.” Oji concluded.

 

Call for ending attacks on ships in Red Sea

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) on Friday demanded an immediate cessation of hostilities against ships and seafarers navigating through the strategic Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The call comes in response to increasing maritime threats in these crucial waterways.

The IMO's Maritime Safety Committee adopted a resolution in London condemning these acts as "illegal and unjustifiable," highlighting their direct threat to the freedom of navigation and the substantial disruptions they cause to regional and global trade.

This resolution marks the first such formal stance by the IMO member states since the seizure of the MV Galaxy Leader cargo ship by the Yemeni Houthi group in November in the Red Sea.

"Since then, around 50 dangerous and destabilizing maritime attacks have occurred, resulting in the loss of several seafarers' lives, while the 25 crew members of the Galaxy Leader remain hostages," the agency reported, calling for their "immediate and unconditional release."

The resolution criticized the Houthis' actions for endangering lives, impeding vital humanitarian aid deliveries, increasing the cost of such aid, and destabilizing the region. It also emphasized the importance of resolving the crisis through peaceful dialogue and diplomacy.

IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez appealed to governments and relevant organizations to assist affected seafarers and to intensify efforts to resolve the crisis. He highlighted the Red Sea's significance as one of the world’s busiest maritime routes, especially for oil and fuel shipments.

China and India vying for influence Bangladesh

Bangladesh faces a complex diplomatic challenge as it navigates the competing interests of India and China regarding the Teesta River project. India is concerned about strategic security and maintaining regional influence, while China's involvement offers economic benefits and potential infrastructure development, raising India's geopolitical concerns. Bangladesh faces the challenge of balancing these interests while safeguarding its sovereignty, security, and development priorities.

The Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project, estimated to cost US$1 billion, has attracted significant interest from China, which has submitted a proposal for the project. An agreement might be signed during Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s upcoming visit to China. In response, India has sent its foreign secretary, Vinay Mohan Kwatra, to Bangladesh, offering Indian funding for the Teesta project to counter China's involvement, putting Dhaka in a difficult position.

Both China and India have been vying for influence in Bangladesh. In the past, Bangladesh canceled the China-backed Sonadia deep-sea port project due to India's discomfort with China's growing presence in a strategically important area.

Now, the Teesta project has become the latest focal point of this geopolitical competition. India's keen interest in the project is driven by geographical and strategic factors, particularly the project's proximity to the "Chicken Neck" corridor, a vital area connecting India’s Northeast with the rest of the country.

Despite the strong relations between Bangladesh and India, the Teesta River water-sharing issue remains unresolved, heightening Dhaka’s impatience. India’s shift from promising a water-sharing treaty to offering to fund the project seems to be a strategic move to counter China's involvement. This approach raises questions about why India prefers to finance the project instead of ensuring Bangladesh's access to water.

The Teesta River project has significant implications for Bangladesh's relations with India and China. Bangladesh has to maintain neutrality in its foreign policy, as the project could force it to choose sides.

Engaging with India could strengthen bilateral relations but might alienate China. Conversely, partnering with China could yield economic benefits but strain relations with India.

Prime Minister Hasina might find it challenging to replace China with India in the project due to India's strict loan terms, slow disbursement, and questionable capacity to execute such a large-scale project.

Moreover, abandoning the project with China after already canceling the Sonadia port project could severely strain Bangladesh’s ties with Beijing, its top trade and defense partner.

Successful implementation of the Teesta River project requires nuanced diplomacy and strategic decision-making by Bangladesh. Dhaka must leverage its diplomatic channels to engage constructively with both India and China to ensure neither feels slighted, aligning the project with Bangladesh’s national interests and priorities.

How long will Biden protect Israeli war criminals?

This week the prosecutor from the International Criminal Court (ICC) announced it was seeking arrest warrants for Israeli prime minister and top Hamas leaders, then came a ruling from the ICC ordering Israel to immediately halt the assault on Rafah.

As usual, Israel responded to this news with defiance, denials, and deceit.

The official statement released by Israel via X/Twitter flatly denied that they are even conducting military operations against civilians in Rafah and lied about keeping the Rafah passage open to allow aid in. Everyone can see the truth of what is happening there. Some will choose to disbelieve their own eyes, and they will have to live with that choice.

Many will not close their eyes to Israel’s atrocities, and also not stop until Palestine is free.

In the forthcoming election of United States, scheduled for November many of the citizens stand unequivocally with the people of Gaza. Their fight is for people, planet, and peace as inextricable from the fight for Palestinian liberation.

Benjamin Netanyahu may have a close, personal friend, Joe Biden, who may not be there after November 2024.

The first thing the new president may do, end the supply of weapons and military aid to Israel that is in violation of international law, including its practice of genocide, ethnic cleansing, and the occupation of Gaza and the West Bank.

The new president may also push the Senate to ratify the Rome Statute recognizing the legal authority of the International Criminal Court. He may also direct all US federal agencies with the proper authority to recognize and execute any valid arrest warrant issued by the ICC over Israel’s war crimes.

If he has the spine, he may not allow the foreign policy of the most powerful and influential nation on earth to be dictated by a despot clinging to the last threads of his power in a genocidal apartheid state.

Cordial Saudi-Iranian ties to continue, say MBS

Iranian interim president, Mohammad Mokhber, received a phone call from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman on Friday afternoon in which he underscored that the cordial relations between Tehran and Riyadh will continue after the passing of President Ebrahim Raisi. 

“The incident was very painful for us. The loss of Raisi hurt all of us, and the loss of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran, who was very friendly with our Minister of Foreign Affairs, was also sorrowful,” the Saudi crown prince was quoted by Iranian media as telling Mokhber. 

Bin Salman stressed that Saudi Arabia will continue the path of developing relations with Iran, a goal that he described as being pursued by President Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian. 

He announced his country's readiness to expand economic relations with Iran.

Mokhber, for his part, thanked Saudi Arabia for its messages of condolences with Iran over the demise of its president. 

Describing the expansion of relations with neighboring countries as one of the important strategies of the late President Raisi, Mokhber noted, “It was difficult for us to lose a popular and hardworking president like Raisi, but the course of the country will not change and the same spirit of interest and trust between Iran and Saudi Arabia during the martyred president's term will continue.”

He stressed, “The continuation of the neighborhood policy of the 13th government and the development of relations with the countries of the region is the only option before all of us, and companionship and empathy with each other is the guarantee of stability and prosperity in the region.”

In this call, Mokhber invited the Saudi crown prince to pay a visit to Iran. Bin Salman accepted the invitation and extended an invitation for Mokhber to visit Saudi Arabia. 

 

Pakistan Stock Exchange posts lackluster movement

The market experienced volatility during the week ended on May 24, 2024 due to a lack of progress in negotiations between the Pakistan Government (GoP) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding the staff level agreement. Despite the talks, both the parties denied officially labeling the discussions as negotiations, contributing to uncertainty and fluctuations in the market.

However, Friday saw news of progress on a new EFF program emerged, boosting market confidence and leading to the KSE-100 Index achieving its highest-ever closing. This positive development counteracted previous market volatility, signaling optimism among investors regarding the economic outlook and financial stability. Overall, the benchmark index closed at 75,983 points on Friday, with a gain of 640 points or 0.85%WoW.

Further, SPI weekly inflation remains consistently on downward trend as per recent readings, suggests a slowing down of CPI data for the current month.

Yields in the mid-week PIB auction also declined slightly.

Positivity soared with news of the forthcoming UAE's pledge of a US$10 billion investment.

Negotiations regarding Reko Diq deal between Pakistan and Saudi investors gained ground, added to the optimism.

Additional revenue measures are being proposed by the authorities by adding 18% sales tax on various zero-rated and exempted goods in the upcoming budget.

Overall, average trading volumes were up by 0.7%WoW, clocking in at 558.18 million shares, as compared to 554.51 million shares traded in the earlier week.

On the currency front, PkR remained flat WoW to close at 278.21.

Other major news flows during the week included: 1) IMF unsatisfied with Pakistan’s steps of bringing real estate into tax net, 2) UN projects Pak economy to grow by 2pc in 2024, 3) Pakistan’s current account records surplus of US$491 million in April and 4) Nepra questions 25% proposed hike in ‘PPP’.

Power Generation & Distribution, Leather & Tanneries, Tobacco, Commercial Banks and Technology & Communications were amongst the top performing sectors, while Sugar & Allied Industries, Automobile Parts & Accessories, Transport, Modarbas and Refinery were amongst the worst performers.

Major net selling was recorded by Foreigners with a net sell of US$12.08 million. Banks/DFI absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$10.44 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: SCBPL, KEL, NPL, SRVI and SHFA, while laggards included: THALL, NRL, DAWH, PSEL and SEARL.

Market is anticipated to remain focused on FY25 budget-related news in the near term. Overall, some profit-taking can be expected with the index hovering at its record high.

With foreign buyers consistently purchasing, the rally is expected to continue amidst the market's attractive valuations. Furthermore, the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee, scheduled just after the budget, will also be in the limelight.

Despite real interest rates being significantly positive, new taxation measures could pose a risk to the inflation outlook and possible start of monetary easing.

 

 

 

Indian export of refined fuels on the decline

Use of crude oil vessels to ship refined fuels such as diesel to key European markets by Indian refiners has declined in May after volumes neared two-year high levels last month.

That is because of rising inventories in the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam region and shaky east-west diesel price spreads undermining the case for sellers to ship large volumes of the industrial fuel to West.

While higher April shipments from India to Europe provided a floor for Asian margins, fewer such voyages in May will likely compel Indian refiners to shift diesel sales back to Asia, exacerbating a supply glut in the region, analysts and traders said.

Diesel exports using Suezmax and Aframax vessels Mesta, Pertamina Halmahera and Marlin Santorini - mostly from Reliance Industries' Jamnagar refinery - reached a near two-year high of around 380,000 metric tons (2.831 million barrels) in April, Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG shiptracking data showed.

Shiptracker Kpler in February estimated a switch by 35 Aframax crude tankers to carry refined products instead of crude.

Traders switched to using Suezmax and Aframax tankers - that typically load so-called "dirty" crude oil and residue fuel - for carrying "clean" refined products after freight rates for long-range (LR) tankers spiked following Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea that forced longer voyages and tightened vessel availability.

"At the time it was a reflection of how tight the LR1 and LR2 clean product tanker market was given the additional tonne miles vessels were having to do to avoid the Red Sea, and the lack of available prompt tonnage to book because ships were massively displaced given the additional sail times," said Wood Mackenzie's research analyst Emma Howsham.

The crude oil market was also weaker, as refinery maintenance in the United States and Middle East dented demand for dirty vessels, making it attractive to ship diesel using them, she added.

The cost for shipping 65,000 tons of fuel on a LR1 tanker averaged US$75 per ton in March and April from India to northwest Europe as compared to US$60 a ton in February, pricing data from SSY Tanker showed.

Even after the cost for scrubbing and cleaning a vessel to load ultra-low sulphur diesel, that was still nearly twice the cost for shipping up to 130,000 tons of fuel on a Suezmax vessel on a similar route, traders said.

Traders have been among the biggest shippers of Indian-origin diesel, and they have the option for several discharge destinations and thus have room to ship using bigger vessels, one Europe-based trade source said.

The trend has abated for May with no dirty tankers carrying diesel on the India-northwest Europe route, shiptracking data showed, as analysts expect Europe's supply to be long.

The economics for Indian refiners to supply to Europe via the Cape of Good Hope looks challenging as "European supply looks ample in the coming months", said Woodmac's Howsham.

 

Rafah: Food distribution suspended

The United Nations said it has suspended food distribution in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where more than a million Palestinians are sheltering.

A spokesperson for the UN's World Food Program (WFP) announced that food aid would halt in Rafah because of a lack of supplies and insecurity, according to The Associated Press.

Writing on X, the WFP wrote that the rest of Gaza was also at risk. "Our stocks are fast running out without continued access."

Palestinians are struggling to access basic necessities in Gaza as Israel carries out its war against Hamas.

Israeli troops seized a border crossing that had facilitated supply deliveries in Rafah earlier this month, and Israel now controls every aid checkpoint. Humanitarian aid groups have accused Israel of impeding aid efforts.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told CNN on Tuesday that Israel has been trying to get aid into Gaza but Hamas has been "looting" it.

"They were taking it for themselves or extorting the population. We were letting the aid in from the start," Netanyahu said. "We're getting hundreds of trucks every day in."

A State Department review earlier this month said the US has "deep concerns" about Israel potentially impeding aid into Gaza, though it did not reach a conclusion on the matter. It also found the country is taking steps to improve the situation, even if still inadequate.

To address the crisis, the US military constructed a pier that connects to a beach in Gaza. It allows aid coming from the island nation of Cyprus to reach Gaza through a maritime corridor.

But for the past two days, no aid has gotten into Gaza from the pier area, U.N. officials told Reuters.

Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said more than 569 metric tons of humanitarian assistance has been delivered through the pier, though that means it has arrived for distribution and not all of it has been delivered yet.

Noting the difficulties, Ryder said there are discussions to find alternative routes for the safe movement of staff and cargo from the pier distribution area but said Gaza was a combat zone, complicating distribution. 

"We've been very clear from the beginning that we are going to take a crawl-walk approach to make sure that we are implementing this system in a way where we're working out the processes, the procedures," he said.

"You're going to see as we work together the amount of aid increase and the ability to get it distributed increase."

 

World leaders send condolence messages to Iran

Leaders from around the world have expressed condolences and shock at the tragic deaths of President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and seven others in a helicopter crash in Iran's remote northwest.

They are offering their sympathies to the Iranian government and people over the incident that happened on Sunday afternoon with many taking to social media to pay tribute to the deceased officials. 

Russia: Vladimir Putin 

Putin extended his “deep condolences” to Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, calling the deaths of Raisi and other officials a “huge tragedy” and “a difficult, irreparable loss.”

Putin said Raisi was “an outstanding politician whose entire life was devoted to serving the Motherland.”

“He rightfully enjoyed high respect from his compatriots and significant authority abroad. As a true friend of Russia, he made an invaluable personal contribution to the development of good neighborly relations between our countries and made great efforts to bring them to the level of strategic partnership,” the Russian president said.

Putin said he had met Raisi several times and “will forever retain the fondest memory of this wonderful man.”

Putin spoke to Iran’s interim President Mohammad Mokhber. The two leaders stressed their “mutual intention to further strengthen Russian-Iranian interaction”.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov also said Moscow will continue to deepen its relationship with Iran and previous agreements with Tehran will be implemented.

China: Xi Jinping

Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed deep condolences over the death of Iran’s president. 

“His unfortunate death is a huge loss to the Iranian people, and also caused China to lose a good friend,” said Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin at a daily news briefing, quoting President Xi.

The Chinese president praised Raisi’s “important contributions to safeguarding Iran’s security and stability” and for “positive efforts” on Beijing-Tehran relations.

Palestine: Mahmoud Abbas

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas extended the deepest condolences to the government and people of Iran on the death of the Iranian president and other officials. 

“We extend our sincere condolences and sympathy to the brotherly Iranian people on the death of the late President Ebrahim Raisi and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, praying to God Almighty may have mercy on the deceased Iranian President, and grant their families patience and solace, stressing the solidarity of the State of Palestine and its people with the Iranian leadership and people in this great affliction," President Abbas said. 

Gaza: Hamas

Hamas issued a statement mourning the deaths of Iran’s president and foreign minister.

The resistance group said the helicopter crash “claimed the lives of a group of the best Iranian leaders,” praising their “honorable positions in support of our Palestinian cause, and support for the legitimate struggle of our people against the Zionist entity,”.

The statement added, “We are confident that the Islamic Republic of Iran will be able — God willing — to overcome the repercussions of this great loss. The dear Iranian people have ancient institutions capable of dealing with this severe ordeal.” 

Islamic Jihad

The Islamic Jihad also called the deaths of Raisi and Amir Abdollahian “a great loss for the Palestinian people in these difficult circumstances, as they had a prominent and clear role in supporting and assisting the Palestinian people’s struggle and resistance”.

Syria and Lebanon

Lebanon and Syria on Monday announced three days of national mourning for the passing of the Iranian president and foreign minister.

"I can't tell you how sorry I am about this incident that happened. Especially that the foreign minister had become a friend," Lebanon's Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib told reporters on Monday.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad also expressed solidarity with Iran. 

“We worked with the late president (Raisi) to ensure that the strategic relations between Syria and Iran remain prosperous always, and we will always remember his visit to Syria as an important milestone in this path, and all the visions and ideas that he presented to enrich relations with everything that benefits the Syrian and Iranian peoples,” Assad’s office said in a statement.

Hezbollah calls Raisi protector of resistance and defender of Arab issues

The Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah mourned the deaths of the Iranian president and foreign minister.

Hezbollah described Raisi as “a big brother to us, a strong supporter, and a staunch defender of our issues and the Arab nations’ issues, most notably Jerusalem and Palestine, and a protector of the resistance movements and those fighting on their behalf in all the positions of responsibility he held.”

Iraq: al-Sudani

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani expressed “great sadness and great sorrow” in a statement over the deaths of Raisi and others in the helicopter crash.

He also extended “sincere condolences” to the Leader of the Islamic Revolution and government and “solidarity with the brotherly Iranian people.”

Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, or Hashed al-Shaabi, also expressed their sympathies, adding that Raisi had “always declared that Iraq and Iran are one people that cannot be separated.”

Iraq's top cleric Ayatollah Sistani offered condolences to Iran over the martyrdom of President Raeisi and his companions.

“We received the news of the death of Seyed Ebrahim Raisi, the president of Iran, and his companions with deep sorrow,” Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani said. 

"I offer my condolences to the nation and government of Iran, especially the families of the deceased, and wish them patience," Ayatollah al-Sistani added.

Ansarullah

Yemen’s Ansarullah movement mourned the death of Raisi and other senior officials in the helicopter crash.

“Our deepest condolences to the Iranian people and the Iranian leadership and to the families of the president and the accompanying delegation,” Mohamed Ali al-Houthi, the head of the Ansarullah’s Supreme Revolutionary Committees said.

“The Iranian people will continue to have leaders loyal to their people, God willing,” he added. 

Pakistan: Shehbaz

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has announced a day of mourning over Raisi’s death.

“I along with the government and people of Pakistan extend our deepest condolences and sympathies to the Iranian nation on this terrible loss. May the martyred souls rest in heavenly peace. The great Iranian nation will overcome this tragedy with customary courage,” Sharif wrote on X.

Sharif, who recently hosted Raisi and Amir Abdollahian when they visited Pakistan, said, “They were good friends of Pakistan.”

Pakistan: Zardari

Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari in a statement also expressed shock and sorrow over Raisi’s death. He extended his condolences to the bereaved families of the Iranian president, the foreign minister and others who died in the accident.

Jamia Al-Azhar

In a statement, the Al-Azhar al-Sharif, the Sunni world’s foremost seat of religious learning, mourned the death of President Raisi, Amir Abdollahian and others who were killed in the helicopter crash.

Sheikh Ahmed el-Tayeb, the grand imam of Cairo-based Al-Azhar, extended his condolences to the Iranian people and the families of the dead officials.

Al-Azhar is a prestigious religious institution across the Muslim world. A 1,000-year-old university of scholar-clerics, it teaches new generations of Sunni clerics and produces research that for many spells out what being a Muslim entails.

Egypt: Sisi 

Egypt's president extended his condolences for the deaths of Raisi and Amir Abdollahian. 
"Egypt mourns, with great sadness and grief" the Iranian president and Tehran's top diplomat, "who passed away on Sunday following a painful accident," the presidency said in a statement.
Sisi also extended "his sincere condolences and sympathy" to the Iranian people. He expressed Cairo's "solidarity with the leadership and people of Iran in this terrible loss."

IAEA

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency called at a conference on nuclear security in Vienna for a minute of silence in memory of the Iranian president, foreign minister and the other victims of the helicopter crash. 
“I extend my condolences on [their] tragic passing,” Rafael Mariano Grossi wrote on X on Monday. “Our thoughts are with their families and the people of Iran during this difficult time.”

Afghanistan: Akhund

In Afghanistan, Taliban said it was deeply saddened by the deaths of the Iranian president and foreign minister. 

“We share our grief with the Islamic Republic of Iran and the people of that country and offer our condolences to all the families of the victims, the nation and the government of Iran,” the Taliban prime minister, Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund, said in a statement.

Turkey: Erdogan

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan conveyed his condolences to the Iranian people and government over the deaths of Raisi, Amir Abdollahian and other officials in the helicopter crash.

Erdogan said in a statement posted on X that he remembers Raisi “with respect and gratitude” and praised his “efforts for the peace of the Iranian people and our region during his time in office.”

Azerbaijan: Aliyev 

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev extended condolences to Iran’s Leader, saying in a statement that he and his government were “deeply shocked by the heavy loss that befell the brotherly and friendly Islamic Republic of Iran and its people.”

Aliyev said, “The people of Iran have lost an outstanding statesman who served his country selflessly and faithfully all his life. The bright memory of him will always live in our hearts.” 

India: Modi 

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he was deeply saddened and shocked by the news of Raisi’s death, and sent his condolences to the president’s family and the people of Iran.

“India stands with Iran in this time of sorrow,” Modi said in a post on X as his country also announced a day of national mourning over the death of the Iranian president and foreign minister.

Malaysia: Ibrahim

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said he was "deeply saddened" by the death of the Iranian president and other officials in the helicopter crash, noting their shared commitment to bolstering ties.
"I am deeply saddened by the tragic deaths of President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and several other officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran," he said in a statement on social media.

Vietnam: Xuan 

 Acting State President of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam Vo Thi Anh Xuan, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and President of the National Assembly Tran Thanh Man, are grieved to learn about the passing of President Ebrahim Raisi, Minister of Foreign Affairs Hossein Amir Abdollahian and other members of the entourage. They extended their deepest condolences to the interim President of Iran, Mohammad Mokhber, Parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, and through them, to Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei; the government and people of Iran. 

Qatar: Al Thani

The Emir of Qatar offered condolences to the government and people of Iran on the death of Raisi and other officials who lost their lives in the copter crash. 

"I offer my condolences to the government and people of the Islamic Republic of Iran on the death of President Ebrahim Raeisi and the Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, and the accompanying officials in the painful incident of the helicopter crash," Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani wrote.

UAE: Al Nahyan

In the UAE, President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan expressed condolences to the Iranian government and people following the death of Raisi and Amir Abdollahian.
On his X account, Sheikh Mohamed tweeted: “I extend my deepest condolences to the Iranian government and people over the passing of President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, and those accompanying them following a tragic accident.

“We pray that God grants them eternal rest and we extend our heartfelt sympathies to their families. The UAE stands in solidarity with Iran at this difficult time.”

Saudi Arabia: Mohammed bin Salman

King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom's de facto ruler, "offer their condolences to his Excellency, the acting head of the executive authority, Mohammad Mokhber, on the death of His Excellency Ebrahim Raisi, president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and his companions," said a statement carried by the official Saudi Press Agency.

Jordan: Abdullah 

The King of Jordan conveyed his country’s condolences over the passing of Iranian officials in the helicopter crash. 

"My deepest condolences to the brothers, leadership, government, and people of the Islamic Republic of Iran on the death of Brother President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Brother Hossein Amir Abdollahian, and those accompanying them, may God have mercy on them all," Jordan’s King Abdullah II wrote in X account.

The King emphasized in his message that his country stands with the brothers in Iran in this difficult situation.

South Africa: Ramaphosa 

South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa, who recently invited Iran to join the BRICS group, expressed deep regret over the death of President Raisi.

"This is an extraordinary, unthinkable tragedy that has claimed a remarkable leader of a nation with whom South Africa enjoys strong bilateral relations," Ramaphosa said.

Ramaphosa visited Iran as deputy president in 2015 and in 2023 welcomed Raisi to a summit of the BRICS group in Johannesburg, where the Islamic Republic was formally invited to join.

European Union: Borrell

 European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell in a brief statement offered condolences for the deaths of Iran’s president and foreign minister and “other Iranian officials involved in the tragic helicopter crash.”

“The EU expresses its sympathies to the families of all the victims and to the Iranian citizens affected,” the statement said.
The European Council president also sent a message. 

“The EU expresses its sincere condolences for the death of President Raisi and Foreign Minister Abdollahian, as well as other members of their delegation and crew in a helicopter accident. Our thoughts go to the families,” Charles Michel wrote on X.

Switzerland: Cassis

“In light of the helicopter accident that claimed the lives of President Ebrahim Raisi, my counterpart FM @Amirabdolahian, and their accompanying delegations, I extend my condolences to the families of all the victims and to the Iranian citizens affected,” Ignazio Cassis said. 

France

"France offers its condolences to the Islamic Republic of Iran following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and those accompanying them," the foreign ministry said in a statement. It also expressed its "condolences to the families of the victims of this accident."

NATO: Daklallah

The NATO military alliance expressed condolences to Iran over the death of Raisi in a helicopter crash.

"Our condolences to the people of Iran for the death of President Raisi, Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian, and others who perished in the helicopter crash," said NATO spokesperson Farah Daklallah on X.

WHO: Ghebreyesus

The World Health Organization has also expressed condolences over the tragic incident in Iran. 

 “We express our condolences to the people of #Iran and the families of the late President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, and all those who lost their lives in the helicopter crash yesterday,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO chief, wrote on X.

 

Pakistan: GDP grows at 2.09% in 3QFY24

National Accounts Committee (NAC) has released GDP estimates for 3QFY24 which have shown a growth of over 2.09% as compared to a decline of 0.42% recorded in 3QFY23. NAC has also released provisional numbers for full year FY24, suggesting growth rate of 2.38%, largely in line with market expectation of 2.5%.

Sector wise, in 3QFY24, agriculture has registered a growth of 3.94%, industry 3.84% and services 0.83%.

All the constituents of agriculture have contributed positively including important crops (up 2.89% due to wheat), other crops (up 1.14%), cotton ginning (up 61.75%) and livestock (up 4.20%).

Despite negative growth of construction industry (down 15.75%), industrial growth of +3.84% is attributable to mining & quarrying (up 0.63%), large-scale manufacturing (up 1.47%), and electricity, gas and water supply (up 37.3%).

The overall growth in services was positive 0.83% in 3QFY24 albeit having mixed trend in its constituents i.e. wholesale & retail trade (up 0.38%), transport & storage (up 0.91%), information & communication (down 5.92%), finance & insurance activities (down 7.11%), public administration & social security (down 6.38%) and education (10.38%).

NAC has revised upward the 1QFY24 and 2QFY24 GDP growth to 2.71% and 1.79% from earlier estimates of 2.50% and 1.0%, respectively.

This takes 9MFY24 average GDP growth to 2.2% which was in line with the market expectations and higher than Bloomberg survey of 1.8%.

State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) estimates that GDP growth for FY24 is in the range of 2-3% in its half year report released on May 14, 2024.

The IMF, in its country report in May 2024, projected a growth rate of 2.0% for FY24, and the World Bank, in its Apriel 2024 update, projected a GDP growth rate of 1.8% for FY24.