Sector wise, in 3QFY24, agriculture has registered a growth
of 3.94%, industry 3.84% and services 0.83%.
All the constituents of agriculture have contributed positively
including important crops (up 2.89% due to wheat), other crops (up 1.14%),
cotton ginning (up 61.75%) and livestock (up 4.20%).
Despite negative
growth of construction industry (down 15.75%), industrial growth of +3.84% is
attributable to mining & quarrying (up 0.63%), large-scale
manufacturing (up 1.47%), and electricity, gas and water supply (up
37.3%).
The overall growth in services was positive 0.83% in
3QFY24 albeit having mixed trend in its constituents i.e. wholesale &
retail trade (up 0.38%), transport & storage (up 0.91%),
information & communication (down 5.92%), finance & insurance activities (down
7.11%),
public administration & social security (down 6.38%) and education
(10.38%).
NAC has revised upward the 1QFY24 and 2QFY24 GDP growth to 2.71% and
1.79% from earlier estimates of 2.50% and 1.0%, respectively.
This takes 9MFY24 average GDP growth to 2.2% which was in line
with the market expectations and higher than Bloomberg survey of
1.8%.
State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) estimates that GDP growth for FY24 is in
the range of 2-3% in its half year report released on May 14, 2024.
The IMF, in its country report in May 2024, projected a growth rate of
2.0% for FY24, and the World Bank, in its Apriel 2024 update,
projected a GDP growth rate of 1.8% for FY24.
