The GDP growth of 3.7% for FY26 is 4-year high and is also
higher than last 5, 10 and 20-year average growth of 3.09%, 3.41% and 3.44%,
respectively. While the initial target set by the government was 4.2%.
IMF and World Bank estimates FY26 GDP growth of Pakistan at
3.6% and 3.0%, respectively. Topline Securities maintains its GDP estimates for
FY26 in range of 3.5 to 4.0%.
Services sector growth has posted provisional growth of
4.09% in FY26 as compared to 3.14% in FY25, making it the largest
contributor to overall economic growth. Within services, Public
Administration & Social Security and Information and Communication saw
strong momentum with a growth of 8.54% and 7.52% respectively, while Financial
and Insurance Activities posted a modest increase of 0.32%.
Industrial sector has posted provisional growth of 3.51% in
FY26. Within this, manufacturing, construction and Mining and Quarrying drove
the recovery to growth by 6.61%, 5.73%, and 0.38% respectively. Further small,
large-scale manufacturing and Slaughtering see a huge growth of 8.50%, 6.11%
and 6.19% respectively. These gains are partly offset by a sharp decline
of 10.63% in Electricity, Gas and Water Supply.
Agri sector is expected to record a growth of 2.89%
recovering from second lowest FY25 growth of 1.53% growth in 9 years, which is
second lowest growth in last 9 years. Important Crops and Cotton rebounded
from last year's steep contractions of 13.49% and 19.03%, respectively, to
contribution of 0.65% and 0.07% to overall agricultural growth. Meanwhile,
Livestock, Forestry, and Fishing are estimated to grow by 3.75%, 2.02%, and
1.66%, respectively, providing stability to the sector.
