Climate change and its impact on Arabian Sea

In the summer of 2022, flash flooding due to heavy monsoon rains in Pakistan, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, and southeast Iran killed over 1,000 people. In this part of the world, the extreme shifts in weather between monsoon and dry season dictate subsistence cycles and financial livelihood, with accompanying risks to life and property. Shifting global precipitation patterns due to climate change, however, are altering the timing and magnitude of these events.

In the Middle East and North Africa region, the Arabian Sea plays a major part in both South Asian and African monsoons, providing a source of moisture. Temperature and vapor pressure in the northern Arabian Sea have been steadily increasing since the 1980s and regional sea surface temperatures have seen a steady rise since 2003. Combined, these phenomena are a recipe for disaster.

The warmer average air mass above the sea has an increased capacity to hold water and will take longer to saturate as a result. This lengthens the average time between precipitation events, but is also more likely to produce catastrophically high precipitation when it does.

What can be done to adapt to this new reality? Can infrastructure be adapted, optimized, or possibly even re-imagined to take advantage of such events?

Infrastructure for the capture, transport, and treatment of surface water will need to adapt to the new realities of climate change, in MENA perhaps quicker than anywhere else. Correlation between historically extreme events and the “new normal” could serve to guide the retrofitting of pre-existing infrastructure as well as updated requirements for the construction of new infrastructure. This should be based on sound statistics and up-to-date flood frequency analysis.

If it is determined, for example, that floods that previously qualified as a “500-year event” are now a “100-year event,” then catchment areas, spillway designs, and dam heights should be adjusted to reflect this new reality.

Beyond exposed impoundments and flood control structures, innovative solutions for storage, conveyance, and treatment of water harvested from these extreme events should be considered if the intended end use is municipal or industrial.

Since large swaths of the MENA countries within the Arabian Sea zone are sparsely populated, adaptations that emphasize efficiency and flexibility in capture or conveyance across vast, often arid regions would be essential.

These might include groundwater infiltration basins located in regions statistically determined to be visited by cyclones with increased frequency, covered tanks (to reduce evaporative losses), and pipelines from these areas to strategic transfer points in regional infrastructure. Incorporating passive treatment of captured water, solar, or even small-scale hydroelectric generation into these designs can augment water and power security.

Source type is also important. Smaller countries or those with more homogenous landscapes (such as Bahrain or Qatar) only need to focus on adaptations to the particular type of extreme event they most often experience. Infrastructure in Arabian Sea zone countries with diverse geography such as Oman, however, may be adapted to capitalize on episodic heavy rainfall or, more rarely, heavy snowfall events and the differences in timing of arrival of water from each.

Monsoon rains are highly localized, and some of the countries that border the Arabian Sea, like Oman, are uniquely positioned to take advantage not just of “Khareef season” but of its reversal as well.

Between the months of June and September, the Salalah region in southern Oman will experience rain from the prevailing south west relies that set up along the southern coast as warm, moist air from the Arabian Sea sweeps toward the Indian Subcontinent.

Toward the end of the Northern Hemisphere summer, this pattern reverses as East Africa heats up, driving winds from the Gulf of Oman to drop rain and, sometimes, snow on the Hajar Mountains.

By contrast, cyclones may affect large areas, and are an increasingly common occurrence in the Arabian Sea, bringing significant rainfall, storm surge, and high winds. With the aid of advanced sitting tools (a combination of geographical information system, artificial intelligence, or updated global circulation models, for example) key regions of the landscape could be engineered or enhanced to take advantage of such events by acting as large-scale catchment facilities, capturing precious runoff, wave energy, or controlling sediment transport. Maximizing the local use of such resources — for small-scale power, landscape irrigation, or environmental flows — would remove the need for both conveyance and treatment.

If it sounds as though the line between landscape and infrastructure has blurred, perhaps it should. If buildings and roadways are engineered to withstand the impacts of “extreme” climatic events, why not re-imagine the environment to dovetail with adapted power and water supply infrastructure and take advantage of the potential windfall? Hurricane Harvey dumped more than 20x1012 gallons of water on the US Gulf Coast in the summer of 2017. Had the storm stalled over the US Southwest, 17 years of drought would have been undone and surface system reservoirs would have been filled within the space of one week.

The blueprint for transforming events such as these from liability into potential windfall already exists, albeit on a smaller scale. Many city and regional-level utilities outside MENA incentivize simultaneous compliance with safety and environmental standards prior to approving new infrastructure. Scaling up such an approach would require a similar leap up in planning and regulatory perspective. Urban planning would become regional planning, with the coordination between civil, geotechnical, and environmental engineering taken to new levels.

Funding options for such projects would need to evolve alongside the rising threats posed by climate change. Options for build-operate-own scenarios under public-private partnerships could be negotiated through non-governmental, UN, or World Bank-affiliated organizations, such as the Green Climate Fund or the Global Adaptation Fund, if government funding for affected countries in the MENA region were limited. Rates for water could be structured according to the ephemeral nature of the resource.

The degree of difficulty with which the resource is captured and conveyed could be incorporated, with the associated costs wrapped into current operations and management. The money saved by not having to pump and treat an equivalent volume of this “free water” could be used to further stretch the resource by being funneled back into reuse-recycling programs, for example.

The details of such programs are, at this stage, less important than a broader array of strategies for taking advantage of potential opportunities to mitigate the damage caused by climate change.

Rather than planning for climate conditions just based on the status quo of risk management, consider that, if the scale and robustness of infrastructure are being tested at a level never before experienced in modern times due to the amplification of climate change impacts, perhaps it is time for a similar quantum leap of thought on how we approach these challenges by viewing these climate risks as opportunities.

The MENA countries within the climate influence of the Arabian Sea will certainly need to buffer against the adverse impacts of extreme weather but may also look toward finding innovative benefits from experiencing this level of climate vulnerability.

Courtesy: Middle East Institute

Lingering Energy Crisis in Pakistan

Today, while reviewing the site, I came across one of my blogs posted as aback as on March 24, 2018. I am sure the situation has not improved in five years; in fact it has gone from bad to worse. All of my friends are invited to read this and also send their comments.

If one looks at the history of power sector in Pakistan, a few points are clear. These include: 1) a myth that the country has been persistently suffering due to the shortage of energy products, 2) the successive power policies have been have been introduced to serve the interest of local and overseas investors, 3) blatant theft of electricity and gas has been going on with the connivance of employees of utility companies, and 4) regulatory authorities have failed in protecting the interest of consumers and remained subservient to the incumbent governments.

Energy shortage

Pakistan is blessed with an enormous potential of hydel power generation. According to the experts Mighty River Indus alone has the potential to generate more than 40,000MW electricity per annum. Another 10,000MW electricity per annum can be generated from smaller hydel plants (run of the river type facilities which does not require construction of dams/reservoirs. In addition to that 50,000MW electricity can be produced annually from Thar coal. However, at present total hydel generation is around 8,000MW, which goes down when water level drops in dams. Thermal power plants (mostly owned and operated by the private) have the lion’s share in the total generation. The share of coal and nuclear power plants in the total electricity generated has remained minuscule. Though, a lot is being talked about changing the energy mix and curtailing use of gas for power generation, a little success has been achieved.

Serving vested Interest

Major hydel power generation facilities, i.e. Warsak, Mangla, Tarbella and Ghazi Brotha are located in the northern parts of the country and cater to the needs to KPK and upper Punjab. Karachi is hub of trading and industrial activities, but totally dependent on thermal power generation. The city has 10% of the total population of the country but gets nothing from low cost electricity generated from hydel power plants. To be precise, K-Electric supplies electricity to some parts of Sindh and Baluchistan. If transmission of hydel electricity to Karachi is difficult or uneconomical, quota allocation of gas to K-electric should be doubled. Karachi is surviving on self generated electricity; the city has a latent demand of 5,000MW, whereas K-Electric is capable of meeting only half of this demand. One can still recall that in the early nineties E-Electric used to export electricity to Punjab. HUBCO was constructed to primarily meet Karachi’s demand, but it was ‘hijacked’ by WAPDA for meeting Punjab’s demand.

Blatant Theft

Blatant theft of electricity and gas has been going on for ages with the connivance of the employees of the utilities. On top of all some of the parts of Pakistan are provided free of cost electricity. One may recall that at one time the average T&D losses of electric utilities were as high as 40%. Lately, gas UFG, which mostly comprise of theft hover a little less than 10%. On top of this, utility companies carry the load of billions of rupees of receivables; the probability of recovery is very low. According to some analysts, if K-Elecric pays off its outstanding dues, SSGC will be able to pay off almost all the payable amount to E&P companies. Containing theft or recovering outstanding dues does not require any rocket science, but a firm commitment. However, utilities fail completely helpless because of the pressure of political and linguistic groups. It is also necessary to put on record that utilities don’t provide connections, taking refuge behind non-availability of electricity/gas, but are prompt in providing ‘temporary connections, which are often without meters. Analysts term this ‘offical kunda’.

Regulatory Authorities

The Government of Pakistan (GoP) initiated the process of liberalization, deregulation and privatization. Under this policy, the private sector was encouraged to establish industries, which remained the exclusive domain of the state for decades and it was also offered the stake in state owned enterprises along with management control. Prior to that the World Bank has refused to lend more money to WAPDA and the shift in policy gave birth to HUBCO and other IPPs. 

IMF Recipe

Many analysts have the consensus that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is the lender of last resort, but its recipes are not aimed at enabling any country to ‘stand on its own feet.’ Often the country is trapped in a vicious cycle of borrowing. However, the advantage is that if the country succeeds in developing its own home grown plan and meeting the condition imposed by the IMF, it may overcome the balance of payment crisis. 

Pakistan has a long history of remaining under the IMF support program. In one of the latest country report, the Fund has once again highlighted the need to introduce structural reforms for the power sector. These weaknesses identified are: 1) the persistence of circular debt, 2) DISCOs still operating under the state control, 3) high T&D losses, 4) failure to follow corporate governance and 5) lack of the mechanism for passing on input cost adjustments to end consumers.

Emphasizing US$55 billion in planned investments as a part of CPEC, the Fund anticipates improved economic activity made up of 19 Chinese sponsored power sector investments (US$17.7 billion) and non-CPEC energy projects (US$25.4 billion). Mode of financing for energy projects has been bifurcated into: 1) direct borrowing and investment from Chinese financial institutions, and 2) financing of projects by private domestic sponsors as well as government backed borrowing from multilateral lenders.

A detailed analysis of the power sector shows: 1) the country has enormous resources to produce low cost electricity, 2) if pilferage is contained cash flow of DISCOs will improve and 3) circular debt issue will be resolved. Appropriately managed conventional sources of power generation can help in meeting the electricity demand and there may not be an urgent need to invest in alternative sources of power generation.

 

US oil reserves plunge to a 40 year low

The Biden administration has been draining the strategic petroleum reserves since the start of the Ukraine war in February 2022 to cap energy prices. At present the super power faces a double edged sword because its oil reserves have plunged to a 40-year low and global crude prices hover around US$100/barrel.

Reportedly, there has been a steep drop in US strategic petroleum reserves. The plunge in oil stocks highlights the mounting risks to US energy security. Low domestic reserves could increase reliance on imports, potentially making it more vulnerable to supply disruptions and price volatility in the global oil market.

The international crude benchmark has charged upward in recent months, jumping almost 30% since late May this year.

Oil prices have been climbing as top global producers, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, extend production cuts announced earlier this year in a bid to maintain price stability.

After the Ukraine war broke out in early 2022, the US government has used its Strategist Petroleum Reserve as its biggest buffer against global energy-price volatility.

Last year, it had released 180 million barrels from the SPR to hedge against expensive oil prices, and cool decades-high inflation.

While the Biden administration has been planning to replenish the SPR, the amount of barrels left in the reserve is currently less than half of the all-time highs reached in 2010.

 

United States-Iran relations driven by US domestic politics

The United States is one of the very few countries having most long-term tensions with other countries. The reasons are diversified, some of which are actually rooted in US domestic politics. The tensions between Iran and the US are a typical example.

According to Jin Liangxiang, a Senior Research Fellow and Deputy Director at the Center for West Asian and African Studies, Shanghai Institute for International Studies, Iran had tried but has failed many times to reach a détente with the US, and the reason actually was on the US side.

It is US domestic politics that had disrupted several processes of potential rapprochements. In other words, Iran-US relations had long been kidnapped by US domestic politics.

The meddling of US domestic politics in its foreign policy takes place in two ways. The first one is party politics. There are two major parties in the United States, namely the Republican and the Democratic parties. For the interests of its own party, one party would always challenge the actions, decisions and policy of the administration led by the other party within the context of party politics. As a result, an international multilateral agreement or a solution on one particular hotspot reached by an administration led by one party could be easily intentionally sabotaged by the other party in Congress.

The second is transition politics. An international solution of one administration could be abandoned by the next administration as the successor would legitimatize its own actions, decisions and policy by de-legitimatizing those of the predecessors. Usually, this kind of challenge takes place early before taking office. Anyway, it is always the best way to win the election by criticizing the policy of the incumbent.

The above-mentioned two scenarios take place in many US foreign policy issues. In climate change issues, the agreements reached by administrations led by the Democrats had been often challenged by the Republicans, and even overthrown by the Republicans in Congress.

US-Saudi policy of the Republican presidents could very easily be reversed by the Democrats either in Congress or by the president of Democrats in the name of human rights. US policy toward China, Russia and numerous other countries is also affected by US domestic politics.

Iran-US relations and US policy toward Iran are typical examples of how US domestic politics disrupted its foreign policy.

The last two decades had seen that US administrations had intended to negotiate a solution to various issues related to US-Iran relations, for instance, the nuclear issue, but had been strongly resisted by Republicans in Congress.

In 2018, the Trump Administration even withdrew from the JCPOA negotiated arduously by Barack Obama’s Democratic administration.

History also had seen how US domestic politics affected the improvement of Iran-US relations.

In the mid-1990s, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, when he was president, had intended to reverse and improve Iran’s relations with the US even by promising US companies to develop Iran’s energy projects, which was regarded as a big business. Albeit this favorable offer, Iran had been rewarded with Iran and Libya Sanctions Act by Congress and then was signed by President Clinton. The ACT prohibited companies from the US and other parties from investing in Iran’s oil sectors.

From 2001 through 2002, President Khatami saw the 9/11 attacks as an opportunity to reverse and improve its relations with the US and gave very substantial support to the US in its military actions to fight against Al Qaeda and for regime change in Afghanistan. But Iran was not rewarded with goodwill from the US side, instead, junior Bush in his 2002 State of the Union address unreasonably labeled Iran together with Iraq and DPRK as “Axis of Evils”, which later served as the beginning of US policy to further isolate Iran in the two decades.

A similar cycle also occurred to Hassan Rouhani’s efforts to reverse Iran-US relations. It is not deniable that Barack Obama’s administration had seriously meant to have a deal with Iran on the nuclear issue, and to have a comprehensive dialogue as a second step after the deal.

It was with this spirit that Iran and the US together with other parties finally reached the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also dubbed as the Iran nuclear deal, on July 04, 2015. If implemented reasonably, Iran could have reversed and improved its relations with the US, which might be something serious in then Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s mind.

Donald Trump criticized fiercely his predecessor for negotiating the JCPOA as benefiting Iran, and he believed that such criticism could enhance his position in the presidential campaign in 2016. Immediately after taking office in early 2017, Donald Trump declared that he would withdraw from the deal, and really did so in 2018 while launching the “maximum pressure” policy on Iran, which triggered Iran’s suspension of implementation of the deal step by step. History had seen the US had lost another opportunity to reverse its relations with Iran, a great civilization.

Despite efforts on the Iranian side from Rafsanjani to Khatami and Rouhani, the relations between Iran and the US had seen a very strange rationale.

Every time the real change could happen, the positive trends had been reversed. It seemed that a very strong force had been blowing back against the trends, which finally put Iran-US relations into a worse scenario each time.

The reasons actually lie in US domestic politics. There are three categories of anti-Iran forces in the US.

The first should be those political liberalists, who regard any non-Western political system as authoritarian and the Islamic system is no exception.

The second should be pro-Israel political lobbyists, advocating counter-Iran policy for the interests of Israel.

The third should be those who had negative memories of the Islamic Revolution, and they would like to take every opportunity to defame the Islamic Revolution.

The movie Argo even won several Academy Awards, which in some way reflected the anti-Iran social sentiments in the US.

Though some US administrations did want to improve relations with Iran, they failed to do so in a sustainable way. Those anti-Iran forces would not only promote anti-Iran policy on a regular basis but also take the advantage of US party politics, congressional politics and transition politics to reverse any trends to change their relations for the better. 

That explains the nexus of problems in Iran-US relations. Though Iran had tried many times to make changes in Iran-US relations, the efforts were strongly either resisted or reversed by anti-Iran political forces in the US via its domestic politics. The root causes of Iran-U.S. relations lie in the US side, particularly its domestic politics. To put it another way, it was the US itself that had lost Iran, which though was detrimental primarily to the interests of the US itself.

Two state solution blocks Saudi-Israel peace deal, says Pompeo

It could be impossible to establish a Saudi Arabia-Israel peace deal if a prerequisite is the Palestinians receiving or accepting a Palestinian state, according to former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo.

Pompeo helped orchestrate the Abraham Accords under former US president Donald Trump, which normalized relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, and Bahrain.

Pompeo told The Jerusalem Post that it is impossible to imagine a two-state solution with the current Palestinian leadership who is underwriting terrorism, taking money from Iran, paying citizens to kill Israelis.

“It is very difficult to imagine how one would strike a deal with the very leaders that have rejected every reasonable offer with which they have been presented.”

Pompeo spoke to the Post the day after Saudi Arabia’s first ambassador to the Palestinian Authority, Nayef al-Sudairi, visited Ramallah. During his visit, al-Sudairi emphasized that creating a Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as its capital would be a fundamental cornerstone in any prospective agreement with Israel.

“The Arab Peace Initiative is the central point of any upcoming agreement,” al-Sudairi said.

Saudi Arabia Peace Initiative was initially ratified by the Arab League in 2002 and subsequently reaffirmed in 2007 and 2017. It requires a complete withdrawal of Israel from the West Bank and Golan Heights, establishing a Palestinian state with eastern Jerusalem as its capital, and a just settlement of the Palestinian refugee crisis.

In speaking about normalization with Saudi Arabia at the United Nations General Assembly last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “We must not give the Palestinians a veto over new peace treaties with Arab states. The Palestinians could greatly benefit from a broader peace. They should be part of the process, but they should not have a veto over the process.”

Similarly, in an interview with Fox News, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did not mention a Palestinian state but only said that the Palestinian issue is very important. We need to solve that part.

He said, “We got to see where we go. We hope that we will reach a place that will ease the life of the Palestinians and get Israel as a player in the Middle East.”

Pompeo said every American president would support a normalization agreement – Democratic or Republican. He said it is in America’s interest to have security relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia and between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

He said peace would be more easily attainable with a Republican president, meaning one that understands the greatest threat to peace in the region is Iran.

He explained that the Abraham Accords advanced due to the Trump administration’s acknowledgment of Israel as America’s primary democratic ally in the region while identifying Iran as the leading state sponsor of terrorism and a significant threat to all other countries.

“When we isolate Iran, the region becomes more peaceful and prosperous,” Pompeo said.

 

Pakistan Stock Exchange closes almost flat

The market remained lackluster throughout the week ended on September 28, 2023.

Despite the visit of the Caretaker Prime Minister to the UN, no significant positive developments or outcomes were observed.

On the macroeconomic front, the federal government is intensifying its efforts to reduce spending following a recommendation from the World Bank, aiming to simultaneously increase revenues. The news flows indicated a possible reduction in the PSDP spending.

 Inflation for this month is still expected to remain high, around 30%YoY. Meanwhile, the Pakistani rupee continues to strengthen against the greenback, posting a weekly gain of 1.4% to close at PKR287.7/US$ by week-end.

Internationally, oil prices have resumed their upward trend, amid supply crunch, after a brief easing earlier in the week, with Brent crude currently hovering at US$95.6 per barrel.

Overall, average trading volumes improved by 45.6%WoW rose to 202 million shares as compared to 139 million shares traded in the earlier week.

The benchmark KSE-100 Index lost 189 points during the week, depicting a 0.4% decrease in the index.

Other major news flows during the week included: 1) profit repatriation surged by 74% in July-August, 2) Jul-Aug period borrowing from multiple financing sources rose to US$3.206 billion, 3) RDA inflows reported at US$6.6 billion for August, 4) CGS of KSA Armed Forces met President, and 5) Pakistan owed US$1.2 billion to Chinese power producers.

Transport, Tobacco, and Paper & Board were amongst the top performing sector. Vanaspati and allied industries, Technology and Textile were amongst the worst performing sector.

Major net selling was recorded by Banks with net selling of US$6.3 million. Individuals and companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$3.7 million and US$1.4 million, respectively.

Top performing scrips of the week were: EFUG, PGLC, CEPB, NRL, and PAKT, while top laggards were: POL, GADT, SYS, FFBL, and HBL.

Looking ahead, the market's performance is anticipated to be significantly influenced by the upcoming IMF review scheduled for November.

Regarding the political landscape, while the expected timeline for elections is given, providing exact dates for the elections would be a positive development.

Upcoming inflation readings and current account data would remain in the limelight. Overall, we continue to advise our investors to remain cautious while investing and consider companies with strong fundamentals and high dividend-yielding companies.

US tells Israel settlements serious issue

The United States has raised its concern at the highest level about Israel’s continued settlement activity, its UN envoy told the Security Council as she pledged her country’s commitment to a two-state solution and the normalization of Israeli ties in the region.

“Make no mistake, the expansion of settlements undermines the geographic viability of a two-state solution, exacerbates tensions, and further harms trust between the two parties,” Linda Thomas-Greenfield said.

She spoke in the aftermath of a dramatic spike of 303% in housing starts from the first and second quarters of 2023, according to data from the Central Bureau of Statistics published this month.

From January to March of this year, ground was broken for 255 settler homes, compared to 1,028 housing starts from April to June of the year, the CBS reported.

Despite the second-quarter rise, housing starts have dropped this year by 18.7% in the first two quarters when ground was broken for 1,283 settler homes compared with the same time period last year when there were 1,580 settler starts.

All total, there were 2,568 settler housing starts in 2023.

Israel has advanced plans this year for 12,349 housing starts, according to the left-wing group Peace Now. It’s the largest such number since the group started collecting data in 2012.

“The United States strongly opposes the advancement of settlements and urges Israel to refrain from this activity.

“We take the issue very seriously, as it undermines the possibility of a future contiguous Palestinian state, and we raise it at the highest levels on a consistent basis,” she said.

Thomas-Greenfield spoke during the UNSC’s monthly meeting Wednesday on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which took place amid a push for an Israeli-Saudi normalization deal and in the aftermath of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s meeting with US President Joe Biden.

The potential Saudi agreement is a subset of a deal between Washington and Riyadh that would consist mainly of a security pact. The US-Saudi deal could also include an interim agreement with the Palestinians at a time when the Israeli government does not support a Palestinian state and supports all settlement activity.

Thomas-Greenfield in her speech also took Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to task for his speech in August blaming the Jews for the Holocaust.

 “The sharp rise in violence by extremist Israeli settlers against Palestinians is also deeply alarming.“All perpetrators of violence against civilians, whether Israeli or Palestinian, should be held accountable according to the law,” Thomas-Greenfield stated.

“Ongoing violence sets back the prospects for peace and is responsible for so much needless suffering,” she said.

The US is deeply concerned by the levels of violence in the West Bank and Gaza and it expresses condolences for those injured or killed in the past month across Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza.

She welcomed de-escalation efforts and called on all parties to refrain from actions and rhetoric that inflamed tensions – including hateful rhetoric, settlement activity, evictions, the demolition of Palestinian homes, terrorism, incitement to violence, and Palestinian Authority payments to the families of terrorists,” she said.

Thomas-Greenfield re-affirmed the US commitment to the status quo on the Temple Mount, known to Muslims as al-Haram al-Sharif.

We oppose actions that depart from the historic status quo, or otherwise disturb the sanctity” of religious sites in Jerusalem. Such action is unacceptable, she added.

Work is underway to convene the Forum of Five – Egypt, Jordan, the US, the Palestinian Authority, and Israel – which met twice this year in Sharm el-Sheikh and Aqaba.

Thomas-Greenfield also confirmed her country’s support for freedom of movement for the peacekeeper forces on the Lebanese border and affirmed the decision taken under the Trump administration to recognize Israeli sovereignty on the Golan Heights

“Our policy in this regard the status of the Golan Heights remains unchanged from 2019,” she said.

UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland said that from June 15 to September 19, Israeli security forces demolished 238 illegal Palestinian structures, as he noted that authorizations for structures are almost impossible to obtain.

In addition, he said, shrinking grazing land and settler violence have forced Palestinians to leave their homes in Area C of the West Bank.

In describing the violence of the last three months, he said, 68 Palestinians, including 18 children, were killed by Israeli security forces during demonstrations, clashes, security operations, attacks or alleged attacks against Israelis, and other incidents.

In conjunction, there were 10 Israelis, including one woman, two children, and three Israeli security forces personnel were killed.

Wennesland said he remained gravely concerned by the intensification of violence in the occupied West Bank and Israel – at levels not seen in decades – and the use of increasingly lethal weaponry, including in densely populated areas.

Wennesland said, “I condemn all acts of violence against civilians, including acts of terror.”He added, “I am disturbed by the high levels of settler-related violence, often in the proximity of Israeli Security Forces, with perpetrators rarely held accountable. Israel must act to stop all settler violence.”

Iran terms Netanyahu speech at UNGA a comedy show

Iran has termed speech by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the annual meeting of the UN General Assembly a “comedy show” and utterings against its peaceful nuclear program and its regional actions “unfounded”.

In a statement released, the delegation of the Islamic Republic of Iran noted that Netanyahu had rambled on during his talks to the United Nations about the “curse of a nuclear Iran” and claimed that Tehran had spent “billions to arm its terror proxies.”

In addition, Netanyahu bragged that the scandalous Abraham Accords would herald a “New Middle East” that would bring “Arabs and Jews closer together” and bring about significant changes in the region.

“The baseless allegations made by Israeli officials no longer fool anyone. Iranophobic campaigns and widespread systematic dissemination of disinformation and unfounded allegations against Iran have always been one of the main elements of statements—or better to say, comedy shows—made by the Israeli authorities in this august body,” the Iranian delegation said.

It added, “The regime attempts to portray Iran’s conventional weapon capabilities or its exclusively peaceful nuclear program, one that is under the most robust verification of the International Atomic Energy Agency, as a challenge to regional stability; this is but a hypocritical move to distract from the real danger this regime poses to regional peace and security, particularly its nuclear-weapon arsenals, clandestine and unsafeguarded nuclear installations and activities.”

It also emphasized the Israeli regime’s checkered history of housing, funding, inciting, and arming the most deadly terrorist networks.

“The repulsive Israeli occupation has brought many crises and instability throughout the region. As such, it is ironic that the prime minister of the Israeli regime spoke about developing a regional peace initiative while his bloodthirsty regime plans to annex even more of the already occupied Palestinian territories,” the statement noted.

Netanyahu’s claim that Iranian drones were used in the conflict in Ukraine was also rejected by the delegation, which stated that “such baseless allegations, which are solely based on false flags and fabricated assumptions, are nothing more than a propaganda apparatus launched by certain States to further their political agenda.”

The statement emphasized how Israel continues to threaten regional and international peace and security by possessing all known forms of WMDs.

The delegation responded to Israel’s threats to use force against Iran by saying, “The Islamic Republic of Iran reserves its inherent right to self-defense, under international law and the United Nations Charter, to decisively respond to any threat or wrongdoing committed by the Israeli regime.”

Israel’s disruptive policies and practices were also condemned by the Iranian delegation, which said that the regime has been committing atrocities against Palestinians for more than 70 years “in flagrant violation of the basic principles of morality, humanity, and the rules of international law.”

 

Collective security alliance for Persian Gulf

Rear Admiral Ali Reza Tangsiri, the commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Navy, has put forth the idea of forming a security alliance in the Persian Gulf that would include all the countries of the region. 

He suggested that eight littoral states of the Persian Gulf should form a naval alliance to ensure regional security without the presence of outsiders.

In comments at a televised program on Sunday, Tangsiri said the Persian Gulf countries are capable of ensuring regional security through mutual cooperation within the framework of an 8-nation alliance, according to Tasnim News. 

He added that the naval alliance would help the regional people live in peace, reminding the neighboring states that the outsiders provoke Iranophobia to justify their illegitimate presence in the region.

The commander warned that the foreign military forces are in the region with the purpose of selling arms and plundering the oil resources.

In June, Shahram Irani, the chief commander of the Iranian Army’s Navy, dropped a bombshell that jolted the US into reiterating its presence in the Persian Gulf.

Irani said a maritime coalition in the north Indian Ocean will be established with the participation of Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Pakistan, and India.

“Today, the countries of the region have reached the point, where they believe, that if there is to be security in the region, it can be done and established through synergy and cooperation,” he said, adding that new coalitions are taking shape in the region and beyond in this regard. 

Irani continued, “Soon we will witness that our region will be free from any unjustified force and the people of the region will be dominant in their security field using their soldiers.”

The commander said Iran had already launched joint regional action with Oman. Saudi Arabia has entered this action, he noted. “The UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Pakistan, and India are also included,” Admiral Irani stated. 

He pointed out, “Almost all the countries of the north Indian Ocean area have come to believe that they should stand by the Islamic Republic of Iran and jointly establish security with significant synergy.”

The US was quick to dismiss the Iranian initiative. It described the Iranian proposed maritime coalition as defying reason.

“It defies reason that Iran, the number one cause of regional instability, claims it wants to form a naval security alliance to protect the very waters it threatens,” US 5th Fleet and Combined Maritime Forces spokesperson Cmdr. Tim Hawkins said, according to Breaking Defense.

 

Canadian allegations against India put United States in a pinch

The United States is caught in the middle of a diplomatic war between India and Canada, after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s allegations that Indian agents were behind the killing of a Sikh Separatist leader in the country.

The explosive allegation comes amid the Biden administration’s charm offensive toward India as a key bulwark against China, with many questioning the US relationship with India’s controversial Prime Minister, Narendra Modi.

The US reportedly worked closely with Canada in investigating the apparent murder on its soil. President Biden has not publicly commented on the allegations, highlighting the tricky balancing act of standing by Canada without alienating India.

All eyes are now on whether Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will present evidence to support his claims and just how bad relations between Ottawa and New Delhi will get before the US is forced to step in.

Since Trudeau’s public allegations against India on Tuesday, relations between the two countries have hit rock bottom. Canada has received no public support from its allies backing up the claim. 

Vivek Dehejia, professor of economics and an India-Canada policy expert at Carleton University in Ottawa, told The Hill that Canadian officials and Trudeau assumed they would get unconditional support from their allies and from the US in particular. 

“They have been disappointed by the level of support that they have received. If you look carefully at National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan’s recent comments, he’s walking a tightrope because Canada’s very dramatic allegations have put the US and other NATO allies in a bind,” he added.

On Thursday, Sullivan offered a vague statement in support of Canada’s undertaking in this investigation and said the US has also been in touch with Indian government.  

“It is a matter of concern for us. It is something we take seriously. It is something we will keep working on, and we will do that regardless of the country,” he told reporters at the White House on Thursday.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US was coordinating with Canada on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on Friday, and called for India to cooperate in the ongoing probe.

“We want to see accountability. And it’s important that the investigation run its course and lead to that result,” Blinken told reporters in New York.

The Washington Post reported earlier this week that several senior officials of Canada’s Five Eyes allies, of which the US is a member, were informed of the allegations ahead of the G20 summit in New Delhi. Nevertheless, no public comment was made by any senior leaders among the group’s members, which also include the UK, Australia and New Zealand.

According to Sadanand Dhume, a senior fellow at the Washington, DC-based American Enterprise Institute, the Biden administration has no intention of sacrificing its relationship with India over an ill-judged accusation by Trudeau.

Biden has made closer ties with India a foreign policy priority in its efforts to counter China’s influence in Asia, inviting Modi for an official state visit in June, when he also addressed Congress. 

That was the same month that masked gunmen killed Hardeep Singh Nijjar outside a Sikh temple in Vancouver. The 45-year-old separatist leader had previously been designated as a terrorist by India. 

India has long maintained that Canada has turned a blind eye toward extremist elements against India, especially Khalistani secessionists who demand a separate homeland for Sikh in the Punjab region. 

“The fact is that the Canadians have allowed some pretty dodgy people to use Canadian soil and to spread violent messages,” Dhume said.

“It’s not as though there’s deep sympathy for Canada given that Trudeau has not handled this really well. He’s really been forced into a corner here.”

Trudeau has also come under scathing criticism from some former officials back home. 

Omer Aziz, a former foreign policy advisor for Trudeau’s administration in Canada, wrote in The Globe and Mail that Ottawa’s foreign policy initiatives have never understood South Asia or India, but were instead aimed at winning over the sizable ethnic Sikh vote at home. 

“Under Trudeau, the foreign policy choices have been subordinated to domestic diaspora politics, given the importance of the Sikh diaspora in Canada, which have been important liberal voters. Trudeau, who has a minority in Canadian parliament, is only in power because of the New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh,” Dehejia told The Hill.

Singh is the first Sikh to lead a major federal party in Canada, and helped Trudeau form a minority government last year after the Liberals failed to win a majority in parliament. 

In New Delhi, the Canadian allegations have united a fractious political landscape. 

“The Indian response has been ferocious, and it’s been uniform,” said Dhume, adding that it has dredged up memories of the assassination of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in 1984 and Air India bombing the next year, both of which were linked to Sikh separatists. 

Even Modi’s main opposition, the Indian National Congress has backed his government’s stance on Trudeau and Canada in a rare show of unity. 

“The Congress reiterates that the country’s fight against terrorism has to be uncompromising, especially when it threatens India’s sovereignty, unity and integrity,” it said in a statement.

Pressure is now on Trudeau to reveal how Canada obtained the intelligence that led it to so publicly suggest the Indian government was behind the killing. 

The prime minister doubled down on his claims Thursday, again saying Canada had credible reasons to believe that agents of the government of India were involved in the killing of a Canadian on Canadian soil.

Canada may not be in a position to reveal where it got the information, Dhume said, but the Indian view is that if you’re not in a position to corroborate … then don’t make the allegation in public.

Yet ultimately it may depend on the US to settle the growing feud, which has resulted in India halting new visas for Canadians and expelling a Canadian diplomat. 

“Only the US has the ability to solve this as only they have both trust and influence in both Ottawa and New Delhi,” Dhume added. 

 

 

 

 

 

Why can’t Pakistan buy oil and gas from Iran?

The United States first imposed sanctions on Iran in 1979 on the pretext of radical students storming its embassy and taking staff hostage. Since then sanctions have remained in force, in fact new sanctions have been imposed over the years.

While the United States continues to play the mantra that Iran is busy in the production of nuclear warheads, it hasn’t come up with any credible proof. Many doubt it is a hoax call like presence of Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan and Iraq busy in the production of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

The growing perception is that the United States considers Iran a hurdle in the creation of its hegemony in the region, the major source of crude oil.

There is also growing impression among Pakistanis that the successive governments in Pakistan due to the US pressure stopped buying crude oil from Iran and didn’t go ahead on the construction of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline.

The US administration is fully cognizant of the fact that Pakistan’s GDP growth is being pegged due to looming energy crisis. However, Pakistan is not allowed to buy crude oil and gas from Iran.

It is on record that India has been buying crude oil from Iran and also from Russia, despite imposition of sanction.

It is high time Pakistan should ask the United States to allow it to import crude oil and gas from Iran.

To be honest, the United States has no legal or moral authority to restrict any country from buying Iranian energy products.

Lately, the United States has not only swapped prisoners with Iran, but also allowed transferred US$6 billion to Iran. This was in fact Korean money payable to Iran, against crude oil already purchased.

Is it not the height of hypocrisy that United States has used money which it never owned for the exchange of prisoners, but didn’t release the funds when Iran needed it the most during COVID-19 pandemic?

The time has come Pakistanis should assert themselves and convince the US that buying energy products from Iran bodes well for Pakistan. If India can pay Russia in different currencies, Pakistan should also be allowed to buy energy products from Iran against supply of food.

On may recall that during sanctions on Iraq, the country was allowed to export certain quantity of crude oil and use the proceeds for buying food under “Oil for Food Program”.

Peace must include Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as capital

Saudi Arabia has said that any solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict would need to include an independent Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as its capital.

The statement was made by Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Furhan Al-Saud at the UN General Assembly on Saturday night.

He spoke the day after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave his address, during which he touted the idea of a "New Middle East" with normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

In interview that the prime minister gave in America, he hinted at the possibility of his coalition considering concessions to the Palestinians as part of their efforts to secure such a peace agreement.

The prime minister spoke to CNN and Fox News on Friday, telling reporters that if he agreed to concessions, he believed his far-right party members would follow.

"Would you be willing to blow up your coalition, essentially, to get this deal with Saudi done?" CNN's Kaitlan Collins asked Netanyahu. 

"I don't think it'll require that," he said. "You think they'll go along with it?" Collins continued. "It's whether I go along with it," Netanyahu responded, deriding statements made by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich that no concessions would be made. 

 

 

 

Persian Gulf needs homegrown security

Major General Mohammad Hossein Baqeri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed troops, has criticized the deployment of foreign military troops in the region and emphasized the necessity for the Persian Gulf governments to work together to secure the region.

In a meeting with Commander of Royal Army of Oman Major General Matar bin Salim bin Rashid al Balushi, General Baqeri said, “We believe that the security of the Persian Gulf region must be provided through interaction and cooperation among the regional countries.”

The Iranian commander emphasized the nations of the Persian Gulf are capable of ensuring regional security without the presence or involvement of foreigners.

He also underscored the armed forces of Iran and Oman’s operational, intelligence and training competence, saying that the two nations’ mutual experience-sharing will help improve regional security.

Inviting the Omani navy forces to participate in the Marine Security Belt naval exercises, General Baqeri also praised Oman’s regional initiatives.

Omani commander called for strengthening military ties between Tehran and Muscat.

General Salim bin Rashid al Balushi cited Oman’s initiative to strengthen connections with neighbors and noted that communications have become even more important due to Oman and Iran’s connectivity in the Strait of Hormuz.

High-level military officials from Iran and Oman signed a memorandum of understanding in April 2019 to expand military cooperation.

In recent years, the two friendly neighbors have conducted a number of joint naval exercises.

In May, the Iranian Armed Forces chief of staff paid a visit to Oman to have discussions about fostering regional security, cooperation, and peace.

Major General Baqeri slammed the presence of foreign troops in the region and asserted that collaboration between Tehran and Muscat would enhance regional security.

The general also said, “The joint actions by Iran and Oman can improve security and demonstrate that outsiders are not required in the region.”

Baqeri noted that the multipolar world order and the transfer of power from the West to Asia have an impact on West Asia and emphasized the need for closer military cooperation to maintain security in the Strait of Hormuz, the Sea of Oman, and the northwestern regions of the Indian Ocean.

The commander then praised Oman for its sensible foreign policy toward the Yemen issue, emphasizing that more work must be done to establish a fair peace and safeguard Yemen’s territorial integrity.

Pakistan: Prime Minister’s UN trip ends without big meetings

According to Dawn, a leading English newspaper from Pakistan, after the culmination of his five-day visit to the UN headquarters in New York, interim Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar headed to London on Saturday, amid speculations that he might have a ‘secret rendezvous’ with PML-N Supremo Nawaz Sharif in the British capital.

At a news conference on Friday evening in New York, Kakar indicated that he was returning home to work with the Election Commission and let the new government take charge of long-term relations, such as negotiating new terms with the IMF.

He did not respond when asked about a possible meeting with Nawaz Sharif. In response to a question about Sharif’s return to Pakistan in October, he said the former premier would be treated under the laws of Pakistan.

Kakar also did not respond to a question if he would visit Saudi Arabia on his way back to Islamabad.

Official sources said Kakar stopped over in Paris on his way to New York and visited the Eiffel Tower with his family. He also spent some quiet time with his family and friends in New York and was seen dining at a Turkish restaurant on Thursday night.

He did have a busy official schedule though, meeting global leaders. The list included Turkish President Recep Erdogan as well, but the meeting did not take place for some reason. He also did not have a separate meeting with the official US delegation.

According to the interim premier, he met business bodies in the US that showed interest in the economic revival plans of Pakistan through privatization and the Special Investment Facilitation Council.

The visit by an interim ruler was supposed to be a low-key affair but assumed greater importance when Canada publicly accused India of killing a Sikh leader on its soil.

Kakar responded promptly to the developing situation, terming it “a first-of-its-kind event after World War I”.

“An Asian country staging a murder on Canadian soil! Its impacts are felt across the Western countries who now realise how India is persecuting its minorities,” he said.

When a journalist objected to his using “genocide’ to describe the persecution of minorities in India, he said, “Genocide is a suitable word, not to call it a genocide will be a crime.”

“…no other word can describe what the Kashmiris are facing. While they are being killed and raped, I cannot sit here and wonder if the word genocide may hurt someone’s feelings.”

He called for the formation of an international alliance to keep in check India’s “rough behaviour” including the attacks it sponsored inside Pakistan.

Kakar said, he had a detailed meeting with IMF officials at the UN headquarters. “The IMF was very appreciative of the interim government’s steps over illegal trade of dollars,” he said, adding, “IMF did not demand anything, rather the caretaker government was giving them confidence and [it] would abide by the agreements.”

Shedding light on Pakistan-US relations, Kakar said Pakistan had an exclusive identity and it should be seen through “regional or extra-regional prisms.”

 

Tattered Western Order

The great power competition between the United States and China is in full swing. Both the countries are embroiled in major issues of international affairs, and none of the international issues remains immune to their influence. 

Trade war, ideational war, and forging alliances are new forms of strategies crafted by Washington and Beijing. Arguably, the world no longer solely is dominated by the West materially and ideationally. The material and ideational decline by and large is contributing to enfeebling the Western hegemony.

The democratic crises in the West and the rise of China in terms of economy, becoming the world’s largest export market, and rapid rise in technology caused a great deal of consternation for the West. The deeply embedded crisis in the Western-led liberal order, ostensibly, leaves a vacuum for China.

The old Western-led liberal order looks more troubled today than at any time since the 1930s. 

Over a decade, Western free societies endured polarization, corruption, populism, inequality, and illiberal threats to the rule of law. The former US president Donald Trump's rhetoric of “America First” was not only symptomatic of attacks on liberal internationalism but also challenged US exceptionalism.

An exclusionary approach of Trump created a deep rift in international politics. The US exit from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and threat of the World Health Organization (WHO) astonished many experts. 

Joseph Nye accurately assessed Trump’s self-destructive approach and argues “I am not worried by the rise of China I am more worried by the rise of Trump” His populism, reactionary nationalism, an assault on the rule of law and openness of US society badly tarnished the American image.

Anne-Marie Slaughter states “Four years of erratic, personality-driven leadership in the United States under President Donald Trump have left the liberal order in tatters”. 

To improve the tarnished image of the US, the incumbent president Joe Biden promised to “rebuild the nation, revitalizing our democracy, and winning the future for America”.

In competition with China, the US must rebuild the social purpose of liberal democracy at home and improve the damaged image of liberal democracy abroad. The work appears to be a daunting task for the Biden administration to improve its triple crises, crisis of democracy, crisis of leadership, and crisis of multilateralism. 

The US is extremely likely to weaponize ideology in its strategic rivalry vis-à-vis China. The battle of democracy vs. autocracy will gain further momentum. Biden advises his countrymen “I predict to you your children or grandchildren are going to be doing their doctoral thesis on the issue of who succeeded, autocracy or democracy, because that is what is at stake”.

The relative rise of China in terms of economy and changing distribution of global wealth in parity between the West and East would go in favour of the East in the coming decades. The diffusion of power and transfer of global wealth will make the hegemonic decline of the West irreversible. 

The Chinese vision, a community of shared future for mankind first emerged in 2011 as a rhetorical slogan in Chinese diplomacy gained content and substance. The phrase in October 2017 after the 19th National Congress was incorporated into the Constitution of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and subsequently into the Chinese Constitution in March 2018.  

A community of shared future for mankind is aimed at building an inclusive, open, clean and beautiful world contributing to lasting peace, common prosperity and universal security, providing instructive answers to addressing the fragmentation and turbulence in international politics. China has actively advocated the phrase in public diplomacy. The Chinese vision was accepted in different UN resolutions as far as the peace and security of the world are concerned.

To be fair, the Chinese vision would confront innumerable challenges in a politically divided world community. Nadège Rolland terms the Chinese vision “looks more like a list of what Beijing advocates for its own needs, security, and position than an innovative contribution for the future of the world”.

Meanwhile, China initiated the Global Civilizational Initiative GCI. The initiative is believed to have been promoting diversity, plurality and dignity among nations challenging the idea's imposition and discouraging the exploitation of communities and resources that will prove instrumental for diversity, mutual understanding, and the world's economic growth.

China under GCI is trying to undermine Western democracy which is coupled with populism, polarization, racism and xenophobia. The contemporary world is going through tremendous changes, power is shifting from the West to the East. 

The Western dominance in terms of material and ideational seems to be declining. The Saudi-Iran détente brokered by China was a momentous occasion in Middle Eastern politics that caused a huge setback to the US interest. The inclusion of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran Egypt, Ethiopia and Argentina in BRICS would cement China’s ideational, and material strength vis-à-vis the US. 

The prevailing battle of democracy vs. autocracy will further accelerate. The United States promotes Quadrilateral Security Dialogue Quad comprised the democratic countries like the US, India, Japan and Australia in a bid to contain China.

The Ukraine crisis has brought China and Russia closer together. The US domestically and internationally faces dual challenges in the projection of democracy. Domestic crises such as populism, racism, and xenophobia pose severe threats to democracy. In the international arena, China and Russia are causing significant obstacles in the advancement of US democracy.     

 

Israel must be brought back to its original size

A little ago I have posted almost the entire text of speech of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the United Nations. He claimed, “Israel is on the verge of creating a peace with Saudi Arabia that could transform the Middle East as long as Iran’s nuclear threat is eliminated”.

Netanyahu showed two maps of Israel so that the audience could better understand the historic transformation that was about to occur.  He first showed a map from 1948, a tiny country.

Then he showed a modern map and talked about normalization of Israeli’s ties with four of its Arab neighbors under the US-backed Abraham Accords and drew a circle around those countries.

I am sure, many Muslim countries would immediately recognize Israel, if Saudi Arab normalizes its relations with Israel. However, I request all my readers to read my blog titled “Israel must be brought back to its original size” written as back as December 01, 2012, Following are the excerpts.

I wrote this blog after Israel announced to build 3,000 new settlement homes on occupied land, a slap on the face of international community that has just recognized Palestine State, accepted the philosophy of two sovereign states, Israel and Palestine. The announcement once again proved that Israel is a usurper.

I wrote, “If the international community, particularly United States wants Palestinians to behave diligently, they must asked Israel to stop construction of settlements on occupied land and also bring Israel back to its original boundaries demarcated at the time of creation of a state for the Jews”.

A cautioned, “Israel's moves serves as a harsh reminder to Palestinians that while they now have a state on paper, most of it remains very much under Israeli control, this is a doomsday scenario”.

Israel's decision also embarrassed the United States, which was among just nine countries in the 193-member General Assembly to vote against accepting Palestine as a non-member observer state.

State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland criticized the Israeli announcement. "These actions are counterproductive and make it harder to resume direct negotiations or achieve a two-state solution," she said.

It may be recalled that the successive US administrations have pressured Israel not to build E-1 because it would effectively cut off east Jerusalem from the West Bank, and split the northern part of the territory from the southern part. E-1 will be the death of the two-state solution.

It is on record that Tzipi Livni, Israel's former foreign minister and chief negotiator with the Palestinians warned, "The decision to build thousands of housing units as punishment to the Palestinians only punishes Israel ... (and) only isolates Israel further."

Even at that time Netanyahu was blamed for defying the whole international community and insisting on destroying the two-state solution.

 

The UN endorsed a Palestinian state in territories Israel captured in 1967, but Netanyahu refused to use the 1967 lines as a starting point. The Palestinian demand for a settlement freeze ahead of negotiations still stands.

On the Israeli side, compromise on settlements seemed unlikely as Netanyahu was seeking re-election at the helm of a Likud party had turned more hawkish and in an electoral alliance with an ultra-nationalist pro-settler party.

 

Netanyahu’s New Middle East

Israel is on the verge of creating a peace with Saudi Arabia that could transform the Middle East as long as Iran’s nuclear threat is eliminated, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the United Nations on Friday.

“We are at the cusp of a dramatic breakthrough, a historic peace with Saudi Arabia”, Netanyahu said as he stood before a mostly empty plenum during the high-level session that marks the opening of the 78th General Assembly.

“Such a peace will go a long way to ending the Arab-Israeli conflict. It will encourage other Arab states to normalize relations with Israel. It will enhance the prospects of peace with the Palestinians,” Netanyahu said.

On a global scale, he said, “It will encourage a broader reconciliation between Judaism and Islam between Jerusalem and Mecca between the descendants of Isaac and the descendants of Ishmael,” he added.

Netanyahu, long known for his reliance on props at the United Nations held up two maps of Israel and the region so that the audience could better understand the historic transformation that was about to occur. 

The first showed a map from 1948, the year of the creation of the state when it was attacked by all its Arab neighbors which showed how Israel was alone in the region.

“Here's Israel in 1948. It's a tiny country, isolated, surrounded by a hostile Arab world. In our first seventy years, we made peace only with Egypt and Jordan,” Netanyahu said.

Then he held up a modern map that already reflected the change that occurred in 2020 when Israel normalized ties with four of its Arab neighbors under the US-backed Abraham Accords, as well as what could occur if Saudi Arabia joined that circle. He took out a red marker and drew a circle around those countries.

“The whole Middle East changes. We tear down the walls of enmity. We bring the possibility of prosperity and peace to this entire region,” Netanyahu said.

He recalled that he had used the same red marker at the UN plenum when highlighting the danger of a nuclear Iran.

“Today, today I bring this marker to show a great blessing… of a new Middle East, between Israel, Saudi Arabia and our other neighbors. We will not only bring down barriers between Israel and our neighbors.”

Netanyahu addressed his vision of a new peace to an almost empty plenum, while outside activists rallied against his judicial reform program.

It was the end of a week of intense diplomatic activity that marked his first trip to the United States since taking office at the end of December 2022.

He arrived as US efforts were underway to forge a quadrilateral deal that would center on an agreement between Washington and Riyadh that would include a normalization deal between that Kingdom and Israel. In exchange, Israel would be expected to make concessions to the Palestinians.

Bloomberg has also reported that the US is considering a security pact with Israel as part of the deal. 

The Saudi deal has been a major focus of Netanyahu’s trip, including his conversation on Wednesday with US President Joe Biden.   

In an interview with Fox News, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said that his country and Israel were closer than ever to a deal and that the engagement on the matter was serious.

In his UN address, Netanyahu said “I believe we can achieve peace with Saudi Arabia with the leadership of President Biden.”

He added, “Working together with the leadership of Crown Prince Muhammed Bin Salman, we can shape a future of great blessings for all our peoples.”  

Netanyahu’s belief that the normalization of Israeli-Arab ties should occur as the first step toward a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has long stood at odds with the internationally accepted understanding that a two-state solution must be a pre-requisite to regional relations.

“For years, my approach to peace was rejected by the so-called experts,” Netanyahu said, adding that, “Well, they were wrong.”

“Under their approach, we didn’t forge a single peace treaty for a quarter century” until the 2020 Abraham Accords, Netanyahu said.

Prior to those accords, peacemaking efforts were based on the false premise that unless we first concluded a peace agreement with the Palestinians, no other Arab state would normalize its relations with Israel, Netanyahu explained.

“I’ve long sought to make peace with the Palestinians. But I also believe that we must not give the Palestinians a veto over new peace treaties with Arab states. The Palestinians could greatly benefit from a broader peace. They should be part of the process, but they should not have a veto over the process,” Netanyahu stated.

“When the Palestinians see that most of the Arab world has reconciled itself to the Jewish state, they too will be more likely to abandon the fantasy of destroying Israel and finally embrace a path of genuine peace with it,” Netanyahu said. 

“A new Palestinian-Israeli relationship, however, cannot be based on lies and on the endless vilification of the Jewish people,” Netanyahu said.

He pointed specifically to statements Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas made in August in which he said that Hitler killed the Jews during World War II because of their history with money lending and not because of anti-Semitism.

“Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas must stop spreading the horrible anti-Semitic conspiracies against the Jewish people and the Jewish state. He recently said that Hitler wasn’t an anti-Semite. You can't make this up. But he did. He said that.”

Netanyahu also took issue with the Palestinian Authority’s policy of providing monthly financial stipends to terrorists with blood on their hands as well as to their family members.  

“The Palestinian Authority must stop glorifying terrorists. They must stop its ghoulish pay-to-slay policy of giving money to Palestinian terrorists for the murder of Jews. This is all outrageous,” Netanyahu said.

“For peace to prevail the Palestinians must stop spewing Jew-hatred and finally reconciliation themselves to the Jewish state. 

“By that I mean not only to the existence of the Jewish state but to the right of the Jewish people to have a state of their own in their historic homeland, the Land of Israel,” Netanyahu added. 

In addition to anti-Semitism, Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and its support of global terrorism is the fly in the ointment when it comes to regional peace, Netanyahu said.

“Rest assured, the fanatics ruling Iran will do everything they can to thwart this historic peace,” Netanyahu stated.

At home Iran has killed and arrested thousands of its own citizens and abroad it has used armed drones and its missile program to threaten its neighbors and has provided weapons to Russia for use against Ukraine, Netanyahu explained.   

“Yet the regime’s aggression is largely met by indifference in the international community,” Netanyahu emphasized.

The international community must do more to support the brave women and men of Iran who despise this regime and yearn for freedom, who've gone out bravely on the sidewalks of Tehran and Iran's other cities and face death,” Netanyahu said.

In light of Iran’s enrichment of uranium, he called for the international community to reimpose crippling sanctions against Iran as promised under the terms of the largely defunct 2015 Iran deal. 

“Eight years ago, the Western powers promised that if Iran violated the nuclear deal, the sanctions would be snapped back,” Netanyahu stated.

“Well, Iran is violating the deal. But the sanctions have not been snapped back,” he explained, adding,“To stop its nuclear ambitions, this policy must change.”

“Sanctions must be snapped back and above all, Iran must face a credible military threat,” Netanyahu said.

He pledged that “As long as I am prime minister of Israel, I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons.”

Saudi Arabia celebrates 93 years of progress and unity

Today, Saturday September 23, 2023, marks the 93rd National Day of Saudi Arabia, a day of pride and celebration for both its citizens and residents. Under the visionary leadership that prioritizes the well-being and prosperity of the people, this joyous occasion reflects upon the nation's remarkable journey toward a promising future.

The Saudi Press Agency (SPA) takes the world on a reflective journey through the life of a true statesman, King Abdulaziz bin Abdulrahman Al-Faisal Al Saud. On September 23, 1932, he achieved the monumental task of unifying the disparate tribes and scattered regions of the Arabian Peninsula, establishing the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This Islamic state, with Riyadh as its capital, adopted the Holy Qur'an and the Prophet's Sunnah as its constitution.

King Abdulaziz's remarkable journey began in Riyadh in 1293 Hijri. At the tender age of seven, he began learning to read and write, and at ten, his father, Imam Abdulrahman Al-Faisal, gathered scholars and tutors to instill in him the fundamentals of Islam and equestrian skills. His upbringing was greatly influenced by his courageous father and wise mother, Princess Sarah Al-Sudairi. King Abdulaziz shared a close bond with his siblings, including his sister, Princess Noura.

Throughout his life, King Abdulaziz encountered numerous challenges that shaped his character and instilled in him qualities of patience, strength, and statesmanship. One of the most trying moments was his forced departure from Riyadh in 1308 Hijri when he and his family settled in various locations, including the Yabrin oasis, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Despite these hardships, his determination to reclaim Riyadh, a city with deep historical significance for his family, remained unwavering.

In his twenties, King Abdulaziz embarked on a journey back to Riyadh, leading an army. His arrival in Al-Shaqib district marked the beginning of a pivotal chapter. Following a brief but intense battle, he restored order, ushering in a period of political stability that laid the foundation for Riyadh's growth and prosperity.

In 1320 Hijri, the people and notables of Riyadh pledged allegiance to him as Emir of Najd and Imam of its people. This victory brought much-needed stability after years of turmoil, setting the stage for Riyadh's transformation.

King Abdulaziz's tireless efforts to unite the nation, restore security, and combat the chaos of the Arabian Peninsula culminated in him becoming the revered leader of a newly constructed nation, securing a respected place for it on the world stage.

On September 23, 1932, King Abdulaziz issued a royal decree, renaming the state from the Kingdom of Hejaz and Najd and its annexes as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

With the nation-building process well underway, King Abdulaziz turned his attention to expanding the Two Holy Mosques to serve pilgrims and establishing schools, hospitals, villages, and irrigation systems to support agriculture. These ambitious endeavors required substantial funding.

In the fall of 1933, oil exploration efforts began, initially yielding no results. However, persistence paid off when oil was discovered 5,000 feet underground in the "Ain Jet" area in 1939. This discovery marked a turning point, opening the doors to major state projects.

King Abdulaziz's interest extended beyond domestic affairs; he maintained diplomatic relations with countries worldwide, prioritizing the Kingdom's independence, while fostering relations irrespective of religious, cultural, or civilizational differences. His approach garnered admiration from world leaders and media alike.

In Muharram 1373 Hijri, King Abdulaziz fell seriously ill in Taif, and he passed away on November 9, 1953. He was laid to rest in Al-Oud Cemetery, Riyadh.

As he built his nation, King Abdulaziz's commitment to education was unwavering. He avidly read Arabic books on various sciences, printing and distributing them freely. He sought the counsel of his citizens, guided by Islamic principles, fostering cooperation between the ruler and the governed.

King Abdulaziz's righteous approach, continued by his sons, laid the groundwork for the Kingdom's remarkable development, characterized by collaboration between the leadership and the people.

In a historic gathering on Muharram 25, 1355 Hijri, King Abdulaziz emphasized his desire for close ties with the people, stating, "My door is always open to anyone who wants to talk."

Under his leadership, Saudi Arabia forged strong relationships with Arab and Muslim nations and engaged the international community with transparency and pragmatism.

King Abdulaziz's legacy was the culmination of a rich history. The First Saudi State, founded by Imam Mohammed bin Saud in 1139 Hijri, laid the foundation for the nation's development. The Second Saudi State, initiated by Turki bin Abdullah bin Mohammed bin Saud, continued this legacy for approximately 68 years.

However, the true turning point came on the fifth day of Shawwal, 1319 Hijri, when King Abdulaziz reclaimed Riyadh with valor, establishing a state grounded in the principles of the Holy Qur'an and Prophet Mohammad's Sunnah.

Subsequent leaders, including King Saud, King Faisal, King Khalid, King Fahd, and King Abdullah, each contributed to the nation's progress and development, with a focus on education, healthcare, industry, and economic growth.

Today, under the wise leadership of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman, Saudi Arabia continues its journey of growth, development, and global influence. The Kingdom boasts a strong economy that ranks among the world's top 20.

As Saudis celebrate the National Day, it is a reflection on the nation's remarkable accomplishments, secure in the knowledge that its legacy of progress and unity will continue to thrive under the leadership of King Salman. Saudi Arabia stands as a testament to what can be achieved with vision, determination, and the unwavering commitment to the welfare of its people.