Prospects of Saudi Arabia joining Abraham Accords getting bleaker

At present international attention is heavily focused on the prospects of a megadeal among Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United States.

The prime objectives of the deal include access to US security commitments, advanced weaponry, and civilian nuclear facilities for the Saudis, full diplomatic relations with the most important Muslim country for Israel.

For the United States, the agreement would strengthen its regional security framework and provide new evidence of US political and diplomatic heft — a fitting riposte to those who perceive Chinese or Russian regional ascendency.

A question arises, will Saudi-Israeli normalization bring about a fundamental realignment of regional relationships?

As the original Abraham Accords signatories — Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain — observe the third anniversary of their September 2020 agreement, there is a sufficient basis to evaluate whether the Abraham Accords are real, hype, or something in between.

On the occasion of the Accords’ anniversary, the results are mixed. The rise of a far-right extremist government in Jerusalem, deepening violence between Israelis and Palestinians, and deteriorating conditions for Palestinians in the West Bank, Gaza, and Jerusalem have set back relations, frozen the Negev Forum, as well as triggered a sharp decline in Arab popular opinion toward normalization.

The hardening of Arab popular opposition to normalization is likely to complicate the process going forward.

At present, the Biden administration’s attention is on adding more members to the Accords to lay a foundation for enhanced cooperation among the parties in the security arena and offer at least the potential to expand bilateral trade and investment opportunities.

It is necessary to keep in mind that the agreements do not operate in a vacuum and cannot be sustained in the absence of advancing on other issues of governmental and popular concern.

One of the opinions is that the Abraham Accords were about preventing annexation. However, at present Israeli settlement expansion and annexation is once again being widely bruited.

There are many reasons to be skeptical about the prospects for a successful conclusion to the current Saudi-Israel-US negotiations. The key issue for Saudi Arabia as the leader of the Arab-Muslim world is, will Israel preserve the two-state option?

Saudis are sufficiently determined to demand such an agreement, is the current Israeli government capable of making a deal with the Saudis and abide by it? That is far from certain.