Pakistan’s antagonized relations with its neighbors

Pakistan's relationships with its neighboring countries have been strained for several decades, with current tensions particularly evident with Iran, Afghanistan, and India. These strained relations stem from a complex history and various geopolitical factors.

Historically, Pakistan enjoyed close ties with Iran, notably during the RCD era. However, following the revolution in Iran, relations soured, partly due to pressure from the United States. US-imposed sanctions on Iran and efforts to isolate it, including influencing Saudi Arabia to sever ties, further exacerbated tensions. Allegations suggest that countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait supported Iraq during its decade-long war with Iran.

The Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project, once of significant importance, faced setbacks due to US influence. India, under US pressure, withdrew from the project, citing the threat of economic sanctions. In an attempt to mitigate these challenges, Pakistan turned to Saudi Arabia for crude oil supplies on deferred payment terms.

Despite hopes for improved relations following diplomatic efforts brokered by China between Saudi Arabia and Iran, ongoing cross-border terrorism activities between Pakistan and Iran have hindered progress on projects like the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline.

The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been marked by fluctuating dynamics, oscillating between cooperation and hostility. India's involvement, including support for anti-Pakistan elements in Afghanistan and participation in infrastructure projects like the Chabahar Port, has further complicated matters, seeking to undermine Pakistan's regional influence.

US foreign policy interests heavily influence the dynamics between India and Pakistan, with the former receiving substantial military support to counterbalance China, often at Pakistan's expense. Some analysts believe that entrenched hard-line positions in both countries will continue to hinder any prospects for improved relations.

Critics argue that Pakistan's foreign policy, historically aligned with US interests, prevents the country from overcoming its most pressing challenges independently. This dependence on external support, particularly from the United States, perpetuates Pakistan's vulnerability in international affairs.

Al Quds Day observed worldwide

Millions of people across the world held huge rallies to mark ‘Al Quds Day’ to express solidarity with Palestinian people and condemn Israeli crimes. This year Israeli genocide in the Gaza Strip has attached specific significance. 

The event observed on the last Friday of Ramadan is commemorated by Palestinian supporters every year.  

In Pakistan, political parties including Jamaat-e-Islami and Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen staged rallies across the country in support of the Palestinians and against the Israeli killing in Gaza. 

The protests were held in different cities including Karachi, Quetta, Muzaffarabad, Kashmore, Bhalwal, Parachinar, Chichawatni, Rajanpur and Jacobabad.

On the occasion, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called on the international community to exert pressure on Israel to halt its oppression of the Palestinian people in Gaza.

He underscored Pakistan's unwavering support for Palestine, advocating for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

The premier pointed to decades-long Israeli occupation of Palestine and denounced the international community’s silence in the face of human rights violations by the regime. 

On the outskirts of Srinagar in Indian controlled Kashmir, Muslims slammed the Israeli massacres in Gaza. They called for ending the Israeli violence and genocide in the Palestinian territory. 

A massive rally also took place in Mumbai, India. The protesters expressed support for the Palestinians and their cause. They also slammed the Israeli genocide in Gaza which has left 33,000 people dead since October 07, 2023.

Indonesia was also the scene of protests against Israel on Al Quds Day. The protesters denounced the regime’s war of genocide on Gaza. They blamed the US for standing by the regime.

The demonstrators displayed a poster depicting President Joe Biden as a clown during a rally outside the US embassy in Jakarta.

Malaysians also rallied to express solidarity with Palestinian people and the cause of Palestine.  

In Thailand, people took part in a rally in support of Palestinians in front of the Israeli embassy in Bangkok. 

Bahrainis demand closure of Israeli embassy. Theycame on the streets to voice support for Palestinians, particularly the residents of the Gaza Strip. They condemned the Israeli brutality against the Gazans. 

The protesters called for the closure of the Israeli embassy in Manama and the expulsion of the regime’s diplomats from the Arab country. 

Bahrain and the Israeli regime established diplomatic relations in 2020 as part of the United States-brokered Abraham Accords.

Millions of Yemenis also marked Al Quds Day. Protesters in the capital Sana'a condemned Israel’s brutal war on Gaza. 

In a statement, the protesters said the Palestinian nation has been subjected to the US-Israeli genocide for six months. 

The statement called on all Arab and Islamic countries to fulfill their responsibilities in the face of the savagery of the US and the Israeli regime.

Other countries in the Arab world including Iraq and Jordan saw huge protests on Al Quds Day. 

Protesters in Tanzania's coastal city of Dar es Salaam also rallied as they were holding the Palestinian flag. The protesters chanted anti-Israeli slogans and condemned the regime’s vicious crimes against Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.

Al Quds Day rallies in Nigeria turned deadly as police clashed with protesters. Reports suggest security forces killed several people in the city of Kaduna who were protesting against the Israeli crimes. 

Police used tear gas and water cannon to disperse the pro-Palestine demonstrators.

Europe also saw rallies marking International Quds Day. In Britain, demonstrators gathered outside the Home Office in Marsham Street before heading into Horseferry Road, along Millbank, past the front of the Houses of Parliament and finishing in Whitehall where speeches were delivered. Prior to the rallies, more than 500 officers were deployed in central London.

In Poland, protesters held banners as they gathered to spend night near the US Consulate in Krakow to protest against Israeli attacks in Gaza.

 

Putin’s victory attracts mixed reactions

Western governments lined up on Monday to condemn Vladimir Putin's landslide election victory as unfair and undemocratic, but China, India and North Korea congratulated the veteran Russian leader on extending his rule by a further six years.

The contrasting reactions underscored the geopolitical fault lines that have gaped wider since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago, triggering the deepest crisis in relations with the West since the end of the Cold War.

Arriving in Brussels on Monday, EU foreign ministers roundly dismissed the election result as a sham ahead of agreeing sanctions on individuals linked to the mistreatment and death of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny.

"Russia's election was an election without choice," German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said at the start of the meeting.

Playing on Moscow's reference to its war in Ukraine as a special military operation, French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne said Paris had taken note of the special election operation.

"The conditions for a free, pluralistic and democratic election were not met," his ministry said.

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said the election outcome highlighted the depth of repression in Russia.

"Putin removes his political opponents, controls the media, and then crowns himself the winner. This is not democracy," Cameron said.

France, Britain and others condemned the fact that Russia had also held its election in occupied regions of Ukraine that it claims to have annexed during the war.

The Kremlin dismissed such criticism, saying the 87% of the vote won by Putin during the three-day election showed that the Russian people were consolidating around him.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia's election had no legitimacy.

A White House spokesperson on Sunday said Russia's election was obviously not free nor fair. President Joe Biden has not yet commented.

In sharp contrast, Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated Putin, and said Beijing would maintain close communication with Moscow to promote the no limits partnership they agreed in 2022, just before Russia invaded Ukraine.

"I believe that under your leadership, Russia will certainly be able to achieve greater achievements in national development and construction," Xi told Putin in his message, according to Xinhua News.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi echoed that message, saying he looked forward to strengthening New Delhi's time-tested special and privileged strategic partnership with Moscow.

India and China, along with Russia, are members of the BRICS group of emerging economies that aims to challenge US domination of the global economy.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi, accused by the West of supplying weapons to Russia, also extended congratulations to Putin, stressing their desire for further expansion of bilateral relations with Moscow.

In Africa, where the West has been struggling to win support for its efforts to isolate Moscow over the Ukraine war, some newspapers saw Putin's re-election as reinforcing the stance of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.

Those three states in the Sahel region have strengthened ties with Russia following coups in recent years at the expense of their traditional French and US allies.

"In Africa, this re-election could sound like a non-event, but given the context in the Sahel it takes on a particular meaning, because Putin embodies the new geopolitical balance of power on the continent with a growing (Russian) presence and influence," said Burkina Faso daily Aujourd'hui au Faso".

 

 

Pak US relationship a saga of ‘Marriage of Convenience’

Soon after the results started pouring in following the February 08 general elections in Pakistan, several members of the US Congress, as well as the US State Department, expressed concern over alleged interference in the polls, with the former even calling on President Joe Biden not to recognize the incoming government until a transparent investigation into the allegations. I invite the readers to read a blog posted as back as on May 03, 2022.

In today’s blog I am daring to negate an impression created by an article written by Ms Maleeha Lodi (Pakistan’s former ambassador to the United States, United Kingdom and United Nations) and published in Pakistan’s leading English newspaper. I am taking an extreme position by saying, “Pakistan’s foreign policy has always remained subservient to the US mantra”.

Please allow me to begin with the U2 incident, when the US pilot-less planes used to takeoff from a Pakistani airbase near Peshawar for spying USSR. At one point the situation got so nasty that USSR threatened to attack Pakistan.

Badaber: A secret US intelligence facility in Pakistan

In July 1958, US President Dwight D. Eisenhower requested permission from the Pakistani Prime Minister Feroze Khan Noon for the United States to establish a secret intelligence facility in Pakistan and for the U-2 spy plane to fly from Pakistan. The U-2 flew at altitudes that could not be reached by Soviet fighter jets of the era; it was believed to be beyond the reach of Soviet missiles as well. A facility established in Badaber (Peshawar Air Station), 10 miles (16 km) from Peshawar, was a cover for a major communications intercept operation run by the United States National Security Agency (NSA). Badaber was an excellent location because of its proximity to Soviet central Asia. This enabled the monitoring of missile test sites, key infrastructure and communications. The U-2 "spy-in-the-sky" was allowed to use the Pakistan Air Force section of Peshawar Airport to gain vital photo intelligence in an era before satellite observation.

I would also invite the readers to recall last-minute cancellation of the visit of Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan to USSR and going to the United States around the same dates.

This also reminds me the US ditching Pakistan at the time of creation of Bangladesh. State-owned Pakistani media kept on telling the US feet could arrive any minute, which never arrived. This creates an impression that the US supported creation of Bangladesh.

Now coming to Afghan proxy war, Pakistan played two opposite roles: first it supported Taliban in averting USSR attack in a quest to reach warm water and then supporting US/Nato troops in crushing the same Taliban.

Please also allow me to share conspiracy theory, “Pakistan and United States have enjoyed cordial relationships due military rule”. The readers are invited to read details of Ayub, Zia and Musharraf eras.

I am also inclined to share another public opinion, The US-Pakistan relationship is a saga of ‘Marriage of Convenience’.

It is often said, ‘Pakistan is a frontline allay of United States in war against terrorism’. Some analysts interpret it ‘Pakistan is partner in proxy wars but when it comes to Investment and trade India is the US darling’.

I tend to subscribe to this theory based on my follow up of the construction of Chabahar Port in Iran. Despite economic sanctions on Iran, India invested millions of dollars in the construction of this port and allied road and rail links to connect with Afghanistan and Central Asian states. Please also note that Pakistan was not allowed to import oil from Iran during this period.

The United States was more than smart in facilitating India in the construction of Chabahar Port and allied infrastructure. The prime US motive was to create an alternative access to land-locked Afghanistan, extended to Central Asian states.

But the real objective was to undermine Pakistan’s importance in Afghan transit trade. There is no denying to the fact that Pakistan still offers cost effective and shortest route to Afghanistan.

Before I conclude let me say, “Pakistan under the influence of the United States has not recognized Taliban Government in Afghanistan”. While Afghans are facing shortage of food and medicines, the two countries are not allowed to trade in local currencies; the United States has not released foreign exchange reserves of Afghanistan.

 

Pakistan: Instability coming down the road

Pakistan’s elections held on February 08, were meant to bring stability to the country after almost two years of turmoil but the outcome of the polls has deepened political divisions. It will also bring more instability to a nuclear-armed, 240-million strong country already shaky at best in a critically important geostrategic region.

In the months leading up to the long-awaited elections, the judiciary and the military pursued a dual track strategy: ensure that the highly popular former prime minister, Imran Khan, is never able to run for political office again and reinvigorate the political fortunes of Nawaz Sharif, the three-time former prime minister and leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz).

Following his loss of power in a parliamentary vote of no confidence in April 2022, Khan was relentlessly pursued by the judiciary which eventually handed him three sentences for corruption, leaking state secrets and an illegal marriage, for a total of 24 years. He was barred from politics and sent to gaol. His Pakistan Justice Movement (PTI) was disbanded, its electoral symbol (the cricket bat) outlawed, and its members banned from running as PTI members.

Nawaz Sharif—a convicted corrupt politician who’s had an ambivalent relationship with the army for 40 years, was brought back from a four-year self-exile in London as an alternative to Khan. Soon after Nawaz’s return to Pakistan the corruption charges he faced were dropped and his life ban from politics was lifted.

The path was now clear for his smooth return to power. However, what was meant to be a walk in the park for Nawaz and the PML(N) turned out very differently on election day. The millions of pro-Imran Khan supporters were not interested in singing off the score sheet handed over to them.

Even with all the measures taken to ensure there was no level playing field, and the ballot stuffing at a number of polling stations, the PML(N), was only able to win the second largest number of seats (75).

The former PTI members—running as independents—won the largest number of seats, 93 of the 266 up for grabs. The independents’ total seats could increase as they are contesting the result of over a dozen others they claim have been stolen from them. Nevertheless, Nawaz declared victory, and will try—with great difficulty, to form a coalition government with the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) of the late Benazir Bhutto. The only bond between the PML(N) and the PPP is that their hatred of each other is slightly less than their hatred of the PTI.

International reaction to these elections, including from the US, the UK and the EU, was negative, with several countries calling for investigations into the allegations of vote-tempering and pre-poll obstructions. The Australian government also made it clear that that it was concerned that ‘the Pakistani people were restricted in their choice, since not all political parties were allowed to contest these elections’.

Notwithstanding the evidence to the contrary, much of it posted on social media platforms even though mobile internet connections were restricted, the Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir, commended the Electoral Commission for running such a successful election and stressed the significance of free and unhindered participation by Pakistani people in exercising their right to vote.

Similarly, the caretaker prime minister, Anwaarul Haq Kakar, believed that the ‘nation had accepted the results’ and the country needed to move on. Moreover, he brushed aside international criticism of the elections as ‘not that big a deal’.

Despite the compromised nature of these polls, a PML(N)-led coalition government is the most likely—but not certain—outcome of the elections. According to the latest reports, it would be led by Shehbaz Sharif, Nawaz’s younger brother who was prime minister after Khan was ousted in April 2022.

The real power will still be held behind the scenes by Nawaz Sharif. Given the fragility of the coalition, which will include smaller parties and non-PTI-leaning independents, this will be a weak government with little legitimacy. This is unfortunate given that whoever is prime minister will have to make some particularly difficult decisions on the economy, handle adroitly the country’s foreign relations, and manage a growing terrorist threat.

Pakistan is an economic mess, with 40% of the population living under the poverty line, an inflation rate that has hit 30%, a rupee whose value has halved in 10 years, and barely enough foreign exchange to cover the cost of imports for a month or so.

The country avoided economic meltdown in August 2023 by securing a standby arrangement of US$3 billion with the IMF. However, this bailout runs out in March and a new one—the 24th in Pakistan’s history—will need to be negotiated.

The IMF will undoubtedly demand that the government implement more austerity measures, including continuing to reduce subsidies on essential commodities. Imposing draconian economic measures on an already struggling population will not be easy, particularly given Nawaz’s lack of popular support. We can expect serious social unrest down the road.

A Shehbaz-led government will also have to deal with the growing terrorist threat, mainly but not solely from the Afghanistan-based Pakistan Taliban (TTP), which has continued to increase since the Taliban took over in neighbouring Afghanistan in August 2021. Pakistan has repeatedly demanded that the Taliban government of Afghanistan cease to support the TTP. But the Taliban isn’t about to turn on the TTP, an organisation with which it has deep ideological, operational, historical and tribal links. Kabul also knows that the Pakistani military doesn’t want to escalate this issue by pursuing the TTP unto Afghan territory. Moreover, given Pakistan’s poor fiscal position, it cannot afford another expensive military operation. Accordingly, Pakistan-Afghan relations will probably continue to be frozen, and the scourge of terrorism to fester.

This will not be well received by the leaders in Beijing who persistently press Pakistan to do more against the terrorists roaming the countryside regularly killing Chinese workers and officials working on the US$60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).  Pakistan already has some 10,000 security personnel dedicated solely to the protection of Chinese interests in Pakistan. Still, relations with China will continue on an even keel or even deepen. It was after all under Nawaz’s third stint (2013-2018), that CPEC started.

Pakistanis can expect Indo-Pakistan relations to possibly improve. The personal dynamics between Nawaz and Indian PM Narendra Modi have been good in the past. Nawaz attended Modi’s 2014 inauguration and Modi visited Nawaz in Lahore in December 2015—the first visit by an Indian leader in more than a decade. But while Nawaz would probably be interested in improving relations with Delhi, it was the perception that he was warming up too much to the Indians when he was in power which critically contributed to the military orchestrating his downfall in 2017. Shehbaz, under the guidance of Nawaz, is unlikely to make the same mistake.

Despite Washington’s public criticism of Pakistan’s seriously flawed election, the Biden administration is committed to ‘strengthening its security cooperation’ with Islamabad regardless as to who eventually becomes prime minister. Pakistan continues to be a valuable regional partner, being in a unique position to monitor developments in Afghanistan.

Finally, whilst Washington may have had issues with the election process, it will absolutely not miss Imran Khan, who repeatedly accused the US of having been instrumental, with the help of Pakistan’s military, in his downfall in April 2022.

US Secretary of State meeting with General Asim Munir—the man who effectively runs Pakistan, in Washington only a few weeks before the elections only reinforced this common perception in Pakistan. However, given Munir’s massive miscalculation on the elections, his days may well be numbered.

How long the next prime minister will last in office is anyone’s guess, but given that no prime minister has ever completed their term in Pakistan’s 75-year history, it is suspect the odds are poor that Shehbaz Sharif will break that tradition.

Courtesy: The Strategist

 

Indian police uses tear gas on farmers

According to Reuters, police in India fired tear gas on Tuesday at hundreds of farmers and their supporters during a protest march towards New Delhi to pressure the government to fulfill a promise it made in 2021 to pay more for crops.

The march is the latest in a series of similar protests which began more than two years ago and comes months ahead of national elections in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi will seek a third term, with farmers forming an influential voting bloc.

Farmers had headed south for Delhi a day after talks between farm unions and ministers failed to secure commitments to provide minimum prices for a range of crops.

"The government has not been able to make a strong decision on anything. We thought that giving time is not suitable now," Sarwan Singh Pandher, the general secretary of Punjab Kisan Mazdoor Sangharsh Committee (KMSC), told ANI news agency.

Hundreds of farmers and their supporters were seen mobilizing on foot and in large convoys of tractors in many parts of the northern bread basket states of Punjab and Haryana.

At midday, police fired multiple tear gas rounds to disperse the marchers at Shambhu, a border crossing between Punjab and Haryana, about 143 miles north of Delhi, where many had joined the march.

Footage showed protesters trying to break through the barricades by lifting away cement blocks placed there to halt the march, as police used drones to fire tear gas rounds into the crowd. Some protesters were also detained

The outskirts of Delhi were quiet with riot control teams standing guard behind barricades on main roads leading into the national capital, where police have prohibited large gatherings.

Farm unions are seeking guarantees, backed by law, for more state support or buying of crops at a minimum price. They also want the government to honor a promise to double their income.

Agriculture Minister Arjun Munda told reporters on Monday after talks with union leaders that some issues had been resolved but more discussions were needed. "We are hopeful that we will bring solutions," he said.

India's main opposition Congress party said the government had failed the farmers. "As a result of inadequate market prices and simultaneous price increase of inputs, farmers are falling deeper into debt," Congress lawmaker Jairam Ramesh said in a social media post.

The government announces minimum prices for more than 20 crops each year, but state agencies buy only rice and wheat at these prices, which benefits only about 6% of farmers.

In 2021, when the year-long protest by farmers pushed Modi's administration to repeal some farm laws, designed to deregulate vast agricultural markets, the government said it would set up a panel to find ways to ensure support prices for all farm produce. Farmers accuse the government of going slow on that promise.

 

 

 

 

Bangladesh: Apparel export to EU falls 20%

Bangladesh’s apparel exports to the European Union (EU) in the 11 months, from January to November 2023, declined by 19.92% to 16.26 billion euro from 20.30 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

Exporters said that the shipment of readymade garments to the EU market decreased in recent months due to the economic slowdown caused by the Russia-Ukraine war.

Global brands and buyers also placed orders in lower quantity due to the election time in Bangladesh but the orders started to increase after the national election in the country.

They hoped that the export to EU would rebound in the next quarter as buyers started to increase their orders thanks to easing inflation.

According to data from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, the readymade garment imports of the EU from the world in January-November 2023 fell by nearly 10% cent to 82.71 billion euro from 91.89 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

Apparel imports of the EU from China in the first 11 months of 2023 declined by 21.42% to 21.15 billion euro from 26.92 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

Although China remained the top apparel exporter to the EU in value, the Eurostat data showed that, in terms of volume, Bangladesh emerged as the highest knitwear exporter to the market in January-November 2023.

Bangladesh’s woven garment exports to the EU in the first 11 months of 2023 were reported at 6.89 billion kilogram while those of China were 5.74 billion kilogram.

In value terms, Bangladesh’s knitwear exports to the EU in January-November of 2023 were reported at 9.94 billion euro against China’s exports of 10.48 billion euro during the period under review.

Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association President Faruque Hassan recently said that apparel exports to the EU would come back on a positive track in the second quarter of 2024 as the inflation was coming down in the western countries and retail sales were getting better.

He also said that not only Bangladesh but also all the major RMG suppliers witnessed negative growth in the EU and the United States as the global demand decreased due to the economic turmoil.

Apparel imports of the EU from Turkey in January-November of 2023 declined by 13.42% to 9.20 billion euro from 10.62 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

India’s RMG exports to the EU in the first 11 months of 2023 also fell by 11.87% to 3.81 billion euro from 4.33 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

As against this, apparel imports of the EU from Vietnam during January-November of 2023 grew by 2.48% to 3.49 billion euro from 3.40 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

Iran and India reach final agreement on Chabahar port development

Iran and India have reached the final agreement for the development of Iran’s southeastern Chabahar Port. The agreement to develop the strategic port was reached during a meeting between Iranian Transport and Urban Development Minister Mehrdad Bazrpash and Indian Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.

In this meeting, the Iranian minister proposed the formation of a joint transportation committee to expand cooperation between the two sides and stated that the formation of this working committee will enable the activation of transit capacities and the use of the North-South corridor.

The Indian minister, for his part, emphasized his country's readiness for new investments in the fields of transportation and transit in Iran and invited the Iranian minister to visit India.

As Iran's only oceanic port on the Gulf of Oman, Chabahar Port holds great significance for the country both politically and economically. The country has taken serious measures for developing this port in order to improve the country’s maritime trade.

The port consists of Shahid Kalantari and Shahid Beheshti terminals, each of which has five berth facilities. The port is located in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan Province and is about 120 kilometers southwest of Pakistan’s Baluchistan Province, where the China-funded Gwadar port is situated.

In May 2016, India, Iran, and Afghanistan signed a trilateral agreement for the strategically-located Chabahar port to give New Delhi access to Kabul and Central Asia.

Later, based on a separate deal with Iran, India agreed to install and operate modern loading and unloading equipment including mobile harbor cranes in Shahid Beheshti Port in Chabahar.

Under the framework of the mentioned agreement, the Indian side has been operating in Shahid Beheshti port in the form of a build–operate–transfer (BOT) contract; this is the first time that such a contract has been implemented in one of the country's ports with 100 percent foreign investment.

The first consignment of Indian equipment for the development of port activities at Chabahar port worth US$8.5 million arrived in the southeastern port in January 2021.

Back in last July, India’s ambassador to Tehran said Iran’s southeastern Chabahar Port is a golden opportunity for India to expand its economic ties.

“Chabahar's position in the expansion of trade exchanges in West Asia, Eurasia, and even Europe is unique,” the envoy said during a visit to the port.

 

Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia join BRICS

South Africa’s representative in the BRICS group of emerging economies, Anil Sooklal, has stated that Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Ethiopia join the bloc on January 01, 2024.

At the recent BRICS meeting, which took place in Durban, South Africa, early in December, Sooklal underlined —referring to the attendance of high-ranking representatives of Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Ethiopia— that the number of BRICS members will double with the addition of these nations.

He went on to add that the next conference of the economic group is scheduled for January 30, 2024 in Moscow, and it is expected that representatives of the new BRICS members will be there.

In a recent interview with Sputnik, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs, Ali Bagheri Kani, emphasized Iran's commitment, alongside other BRICS members, to actively pursue de-dollarization across various economic sectors.

Bagheri Kani highlighted the focus on trade, economic collaborations, and financial exchanges within this influential coalition of major economies. 

He emphasized ongoing initiatives and expressed optimism about reinforcing these efforts to swiftly achieve their objectives.

Bagheri Kani underscored the importance of collaborative efforts, signaling a unified commitment within BRICS to reducing dependency on the dollar.

He clarified that the initiatives aim to establish a framework fostering economic autonomy and resilience among member nations.

The BRICS group, initially comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, established in 2009, has emerged as a significant force shaping global economic discussions. 

Iran, alongside Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, has received an invitation to join this influential bloc. Their anticipated full membership, official from January 01, 2024, marks a substantial shift in the geopolitical landscape.

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergey Ryabkov, provided insights into BRICS countries accelerating the transition to national currencies. 

This strategic shift aligns with the shared vision of establishing a more balanced and resilient global economic framework, reducing vulnerabilities associated with a singular currency.

BRICS has announced plans to introduce a gold-backed currency for settling international trade payments, challenging the global reserve status of the US dollar. This decision adds momentum to the ongoing de-dollarization trend unfolding in the global economy.

Iran's active involvement in the BRICS initiative toward de-dollarization aligns with a broader trend among influential nations reshaping the global economic landscape.

As BRICS evolves, its concerted efforts toward economic autonomy become increasingly significant in shaping the future of international trade and finance.

India abandoning pro-Israel stance

India is a country deeply wounded by colonialism. Apart from millions of people losing their lives during Britain’s centuries-long rule over India, the repercussions of the dark days continue to reverberate in the country's societal fabric to this day.

Challenges such as unemployment, famine, inadequate access to sanitation, education, and healthcare, as well as pervasive violence across caste, religious, and gender lines serve as poignant reminders that the impacts of the British colonial era are still alive and kicking in the Indian society.

This is why individuals within India and around the globe were astonished when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi emerged as one of the only world leaders to join Western officials and condemn the October 07 Hamas operation against Israel, an entity that undeniably evokes parallels to the British Raj.

“Deeply shocked by the news of terrorist attacks in Israel, our thoughts and prayers are with the innocent victims and their families. We stand in solidarity with Israel at this difficult hour," Modi wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, a few hours after Operation Al-Aqsa Storm took place.

India has long been recognized by many Muslims as a fervent advocate for the Palestinian cause, evident in its rich diplomatic history replete with pro-Palestine actions.

From its vote against the partition of Palestine at the United Nations General Assembly in 1947 to its distinction as the first non-Arab state to support the Palestinians' liberation struggles during the 1960s and 1970s, the nation has consistently voiced solidarity with those enduring experiences akin to India's own during the 19th and 20th centuries.

While it is undeniable that India's solidarity with Palestinians has waned during the nine-year tenure of the Bharatiya Janata Party, Modi's complete solidarity with Israel on October 07, and his decision to abstain from voting for a UN resolution calling for a humanitarian truce in Gaza on October 27, were still seen as unorthodox.

“After the Cold War India has generally tried to turn to the West’s orbit. That’s why after New Delhi refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Modi thought that it would only be right that he stood alongside Western politicians regarding the Israel-Gaza conflict,” Dr. Nozar Shafiei, professor of international relations at the University of Tehran, told the Tehran Times.

Several theories attempt to explain why Modi’s government adopted a notably stronger pro-Israel stance than customary during the latest Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Critics posit that the governing BJP party, accused of leveraging the backing of the Hindu majority, perceives parallels between itself and the Israeli regime. Both entities find themselves surrounded by Muslims viewed as posing a threat, and both espouse a form of nationalism rooted in religion. Additionally, it is argued that the BJP aims to capitalize on religious polarization to secure votes, making an anti-Muslim stance far more strategically advantageous.

With certain Arab states beginning to embrace normalization with Israel, Modi may have believed that by October 07, the Palestinian cause had lost significance within the Arab world. Consequently, he may have concluded that adopting a pro-Israel position would help please the West while not negatively impacting India’s relations with Arab countries.

It seems, however, that the Indian leader soon came to realize that he was kind of wrong in his calculations.

India’s response to the war in Gaza came in two stages. The first one was released a few hours after the October 07 operation by Hamas which was seen by the majority in India as hasty. People even accused him of reflecting the views of Hindu extremists.

India has a culture of peace and while it is true that some are extremely Islamophobic, the majority of people in the Indian society feel sympathetic towards the Palestinians. With growing opposition inside India and public opinion turning against Israel, the Indian government began to rectify its controversial position.

As lifeless bodies accumulated in Gaza and global demonstrations in support of the Palestinians intensified, the Indian government began to call upon Israel for restraint, dialogue, and diplomatic measures, while vehemently condemning the regime’s relentless targeting of civilians.

Once more, the two-state solution took center stage in Indian statements as the country endeavored to maintain a balanced stance, steering clear of further entrenchment within Israel’s sphere of influence.

India recalibrated its diplomatic posture as its officials recognized the broader regional and global significance of the Palestinian cause, an awareness shared by numerous nations in the region.

The events following October 07 underscored that not only do the Palestinians remain resolute against the Israeli occupation, but that normalization agreements have failed to diminish wide-ranging support for the resistance. India which aspires to emerge as a potential superpower in the future cannot possibly overlook the Palestinian issue if it aims to play a pivotal role in West Asia.

“Although it was unlikely that ties between India and Muslim-majority nations begin to fray due to New Delhi’s initial support for Israel, India's largely positive standing in West Asia may have been compromised by a continued pro-Israel posture. Such a trajectory could have posed severe challenges for India in its contest with China, which has garnered acclaim for its fair and wiser stance during the recent Israel-Gaza conflict.

Though India continues to tread cautiously to evade drawing the ire of its Western allies, the notably pro-Israeli stance that sparked controversy at the onset of the conflict has conspicuously receded.

While no one anticipates India to find a definitive solution to the Palestinian issue, it is also expected that the country refrain from expressing sympathy towards colonizers empowered with the aid of Britain.

Courtesy: The Tehran Times

Bangladesh Elections: Battle of Begums

For the last three decades, the politics of Bangladesh have been the story of the two biggest political parties – Awami League and Bangladesh Nationalist Party – both headed by begums.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina leads the Awami League, a party founded by her father and Bangladesh’s first president Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is headed by Khaleda Zia, the country’s first woman prime minister.

The electoral politics in Bangladesh since 1991 has mostly been a Hasina versus Zia story. The two have served as the prime minister, in phases, since the last two decades.

Just ahead of the 2018 polls, Khaleda Zia was convicted in corruption cases and barred from contesting elections. The BNP, which contested the election after forming an alliance, won just seven seats, while the Awami League won 302 of the 350 seats.

Khaleda Zia, who was sentenced to 17 years in prison in 2018, was released from jail in 2020 and is under house arrest. The Bangladesh government hasn’t allowed her to fly out for medical treatment despite claims that she was at high risk of death.

The elections of 2014 and 2018 have been called out by opposition parties and the western media for not being free and fair. The same aspersions are being cast this time too.

“The January 2024 election in Bangladesh is going to take place without any credible opposition and with the predictable outcome that Sheikh Hasina will win for the fourth consecutive term and the Awami League will form the government. Top leaders of the major opposition BNP are in jail and hundreds and thousands of their activists are in prison,” Mubashar Hasan, an author and expert on Bangladesh politics, tells IndiaToday.In.

“The BNP is set to boycott the election as it is demanding an election under a neutral caretaker government. However, Hasina dismissed that demand, and she is going to organize an election under her administration. Against this backdrop, the next election will push Bangladesh firmly into an authoritarian trajectory,” says Hasan, a post-doctoral research fellow at the University of Oslo, Norway.

The BNP is demanding that Sheikh Hasina step down and a caretaker government be installed for the general election to be a free and fair exercise. It has taken to the streets and Bangladesh has seen large-scale violent protests in recent weeks.

Some 10,000 people, mostly opposition activists, have been arrested since October 28. Thousands of grassroots leaders have fled to remote corners of the country to avoid arrest.

Mubashar Hasan says millions of people who support the BNP are feeling disenchanted and deprived of their political rights. “There is a real worry that radical Islamist and militant Islamist outfits could manipulate such mindsets to recruit would-be jihadists,” says the Bangladesh expert.

India to add coal-fired power plants to avoid outages

According to a Reuters report, India aims to add 17 gigawatts of coal-based power generation capacity over the next 16 months, its fastest pace in recent years, to avert outages due to a record rise in power demand.

The expansion drive comes ahead of this week's UN climate summit COP28, where France and the United States are expected to clamp down on financing for coal plants. India is dependent on coal for 73% of its power generation.

The world's fastest growing major economy has added an annual average of 5 gigawatts of coal-based electricity generation capacity over the last five years, but it is also ramping up renewable energy.

Yet it will fall short of satisfying power demand if it does not expand the number of its coal plants, said two government officials, who did not want to be named as they are not authorized to speak to media.

In the next four months, India plans to add nearly 3 gigawatts of coal-fired generation, while the following fiscal year, starting from April 01, 2025, will see it add 14 gigawatts, or its highest level in eight years, according to internal government documents seen by Reuters.

To ensure completion of projects, New Delhi has begun a review of 38 coal generation plants whose construction has been held up for years, moving to resolve issues over equipment and land acquisition delays, the two officials said.

The government expects 28 of these projects to become operational in the next 18 months, it told power producers in a presentation at a meeting on November 21.

Such projects include state-run power company NTPC's 660-megawatt unit in the eastern state of Bihar which has been delayed for 13 years, and two in the neighbouring state of Jharkhand held up for five years.

At the meeting, Power Minister R. K. Singh told public and private power generators that India would have to add coal-based thermal capacity, to meet requirements growing at an unprecedented rate.

He also urged private companies to set up fresh coal-based power generation capacity to meet night-time demand and assured them of financial assistance.

Industry officials said such a call was being made for the first time in a decade since most private investments in the coal-fired power sector had stopped around the year 2012, partly because of India's green energy push.

While the coal expansion drive aims to meet an expected rise of 10% in demand during peak hours in fiscal year 2024-25, India remains committed to meet a national commitment of half of fuel generation capacity from non-fossil fuels by 2030.

Since adding 22 gigawatts of capacity in the fiscal year 2015/16, India cut back on plans to expanding coal-fired plants as the government opted for alternate energy capacity, officials have said.

Now India wants coal-fired plants sufficient to meet power demand of 384 gigawatts by the fiscal year 2031/32, revised up 5% from an earlier projection of 366 gigawatts, the government documents showed.

The government consequently revised up its estimate of coal-based power requirement by 9%, to 283 gigawatts.

"We have now modeled a stressed scenario factoring in a below-normal monsoon and a corresponding demand spike, such as we experienced in Aug-Oct this year," one of the government officials said.

That stress accounts for delays in the commissioning of 86 gigawatts of non-fossil capacity by fiscal 2031/32.

In the lead-up to Thursday's climate summit in Dubai, the European Union, United States and UAE have rallied support for a deal to triple global renewable energy installed by 2030.

More than 100 countries have backed this deal, officials told Reuters, but countries including China and India are not yet fully on board.

 

Iran-India committed to strengthen relations

India and Iran have stated their unwavering commitment to fostering better ties in many areas of cooperation. Hossein Amir Abdollahian, Iranian Foreign Minister, stated that senior officials from both nations are committed to strengthening their relations at a meeting with Indian Foreign Secretary Shri Vinay Kwatra in Tehran.

Kwatra pointed out that the Indian government is adamant about deepening its ties with Iran and that it expects that via working together, the two nations’ economic ties would grow in a number of areas, such as traditional medicine, agriculture, and fishing.

The Indian diplomat expressed New Delhi’s commitment to sending humanitarian help to the Palestinian people while applauding Iran’s leadership position in West Asia.

Expressing satisfaction with the political consultations between the two countries, he said, “The Indian government, at the highest levels, is firmly determined to enhance relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

Earlier, the Indian foreign secretary attended the 18th round of political consultations between Iran and India.

A broad range of political, economic, and consular matters, as well as regional and global trends, were covered during the four-hour meeting. The agenda for the future phase of the two nations’ relations was also discussed at the conference.

In a phone conversation in August, President Ebrahim Raisi of Iran and Indian Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi discussed ways to enhance bilateral relations, mutual cooperation and the realization of the full potential of Chabahar Port.

Raisi stated that Iran and India should increase their cooperation in the areas of transportation and energy security.

The Iranian president emphasized the need for increased dialogue along the North-South Corridor.

“Iran seeks to strengthen regional convergence and develop economic relations with all countries across the globe, particularly those in Asia, in this regard,” Raisi noted.

The president remarked that historical similarities between Iran and India provide solid justification for the development of ties at all levels.

For his part, the Indian prime minister praised long-term collaboration with Iran. India, he asserted, was prepared to complete the necessary paperwork for the project’s completion.

The Indian prime minister was quoted by the ministry as saying that the relationship between Tehran and New Delhi is underpinned by close historical and civilization connections, including strong people-to-people contacts.

 

Bangladesh Election: Awami League and others

According to reports, besides finalizing candidates for its own party and alliance partners, the ruling Awami League (AL) is considering providing some seats to parties willing to join the next election amid boycotts by major opposition parties.

The ruling party is now passing a busy time to select its own contestants while working with seat-sharing mechanisms to create opposition as the last date of filing nominations is approaching for the January 07, 2024 election.

Candidates for the election can submit nomination papers until November 30, 2023. The AL is likely to announce candidates for 300 constituencies on Sunday.

The AL-led alliance partners are now adamant about joining the election as a coalition and are now lobbying for more seats than the 11th parliamentary polls amid uncertainty over the participation of the main opposition BNP.

During the past general election held in 2018, the AL candidates contested for 261 seats and refrained from participating for 26 seats in favour of the Jatiya Party, five seats in favour of the Workers Party of Bangladesh, three each in favour of Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal-Jasod and Bikalpa Dhara Bangladesh, and one each in favour of the Bangladesh Tarikat Federation and Jatiya Party.

“We are negotiating with AL for more nominations for our party in the forthcoming election. We are pressing for more seats than in the previous elections,” Workers Party president Rashed Khan Menon told New Age.

He said that there was time until the withdrawal of nomination papers to settle the issue.

AL joint general secretary AFM Bahauddin Nasim said that they would declare the party candidates first and then think about nominating candidates from partners.

Asked about the AL’s negotiation with other lesser-known political parties, he said that it was part of the party’s policy.

“We believe that any registered political party can join an election if they want. Anyone can create alliances with anyone having similar ideologies,” he said.

He said that there might be many political strategies, and nothing could be guaranteed.

In addition to regular partners, some small parties, including the newly formed Trinamool BNP, are also lobbying the Awami League for seats in exchange for promising to join the polls.

Leaders of Trinamool BNP and some Islamic parties, including Islami Oikya Jote, Bangladesh Islami Font, Bangladesh Khelafat Andolan, Bangladesh Muslim League, Islamic Font Bangladesh, Bangladesh Supreme Party, Bangladesh Islami Oikya Jote, and Jamiat-e-Ulama-e-Islam Bangladesh, met Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in recent days to discuss their respective election strategies.

Neither the prime minister’s office nor AL or the parties made any formal statements about the outcome of those meetings.

The allegation has it that the Trinamool BNP and Bangladesh Nationalist Movement, labelled as King’s Party by many, are negotiating with AL to become the opposition in the parliament.

The newly-formed alliance Jukta Front, led by the Kalyan Party, demanded a few seats, although AL insiders said they could end up with one seat for Kalyan chairman Syed Muhammad Ibrahim, a retired major general.

BNM, Bangladesh Supreme Party, Bangladesh Muslim League, and Bangladesh Khelafat Andolan may also get one seat, party insiders said.

Jasod, a partner of the Awami League, finalized 181 candidates, said the party general secretary, Shirin Akhter.

“We want to join the polls with the alliance. The alliance is not only for joining polls but also a place of ideology”, she added.

Shirin said that many parties were now willing to join their alliance, creating difficulties.

At a briefing on Friday, AL general secretary Obaidul Quader said that they were not thinking so seriously about the political alliance in terms of sharing seats.

“The party will not give nominations to anyone who cannot win an election and does not have popularity among the people”, he added.

AL presidium member Abdur Rahman told New Age that the party’s seat-sharing plan has no connection with BNP’s joining or boycotting elections.

‘Our leader, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, will give nominations to eligible candidates from the alliance. The party will give candidates for 300 seats, and then our leader will decide about other alliances,’ he said.

According to AL insiders, there is a possibility that its alliance partners may participate in the polls independently with their own party electoral symbols.

In that case, the AL may not give nominations to any of its aspirants in some constituencies to create a pathway for them to win.

The ruling AL has decided to participate in the 12th Jatiya Sangsad election in alliance in some constituencies and alone in other consultancies, AL office secretary Biplob Barua told reporters on October 18, 2023.

The AL-led alliance was formed in 2005 and came to power for three consecutive terms in 2009, 2014, and 2018.

The Workers Party, Jasod, Ganatantri Party, and Jatiya Party-JP are among the most active parties in the alliance.

Ganatantri Party president Shahadat Hossain hoped that prime minister Sheikh Hasina would make it suitable for all.

“The prime minister will meet with the alliance soon. We can tell it only after the meeting”, he added.

AL’s preparation for the forthcoming election is underway at a time when the leaders and activists of the main opposition BNP and its allies keep facing arrest, raids, prosecution, and conviction.

 

US ultimatum to Prime Minister of Bangladesh

According to a report by The Bangladesh Chronicle, the US Deputy Assistant Secretary Afreen Akhter is believed to have conveyed the US government’s message to the Awami League regime; constitutional expert Shahdeen Malik says Hasina will defy such a move

The ruling Awami League government has been told in no uncertain terms by a senior United States official, who recently visited Dhaka, that the Sheikh Hasina regime may consider stepping down from power and hand over charge to the Jatiya Sangshad speaker by November 03, 2023.

Given the high stakes that are involved, it is unlikely that the Awami League in general and Sheikh Hasina in particular will readily comply with the US pressure to relinquish power, especially at a time when there is massive anti-incumbency besides grave charges of corruption, human rights abuses, malgovernance, among other issues, against the current regime.

It is believed that the message was conveyed to senior Bangladeshi officials by American Deputy Assistant Secretary (South Asia and Central Asia) Afreen Akhter during her meeting with Bangladesh foreign secretary Masud Bin Momen on October 16, 2023.

Besides raising the fraught issue of free, fair and participatory elections in Bangladesh, Akhter also discussed with the subjects of Rohingya refugees and the recent visit of a bipartisan American delegation comprising members of two important American think tanks with Momen, who confirmed this to reporters later the same day. Bangladesh Ministry of Foreign Affairs director general Masud Alam was present during the meeting between Akhter and Momen.

The Bangladesh foreign secretary had reacted sharply, saying, “Bangladesh objects to unnecessary foreign interference in its internal affairs”.

The sources said that Akhter placed two options before her Bangladeshi hosts, eight days before Sheikh Hasina is set to leave for Brussels on an official tour. As part of the first option, Sheikh Hasina government could resign and hand over charge to President Mohammad Shahabuddin who, incidentally left for Singapore on October 16 and is not expected to return to the country before October 30.

The last session of the Jatiya Sangshad is set to begin on October 22 and the government of the day will likely declare the official election notification in the last week of this month or the first week of November.

The second option, the US official presented before Momen and Masud, recommended transfer of power by the incumbent Awami League government to Speaker Shirin Sharmin Chaudhury by November 03 before paving the way for a truly free, fair, participatory and inclusive elections.

“The US prefers that the Sheikh Hasina regime opts for the second course,” a source, fully aware of the details of the American proposals, said.

Chaudhury was in New Delhi last week to take part in the Ninth G20 Parliamentary Speakers’ Summit. She had met Indian officials on the sidelines of the Summit.

The bases of the two options presented before the Bangladeshi leadership was that both were within the framework of the Constitution and therefore could be acted upon and considered by the government.

Chapter II of Part IV of the Bangladeshi constitution says:

“(1) The office of the Prime Minister shall become vacant
(a) if he resigns from office at any time by placing his resignation in the hands of the President; or (b) if he ceases to be a member of Parliament.
(2) If the Prime Minister ceases to retain the support of a majority of the members of Parliament, he shall either resign his office or advise the President in writing to dissolve Parliament, and if he so advises the President shall, if he is satisfied that no other member of Parliament commands the support of the majority of the members of Parliament, dissolve Parliament accordingly”.

Also, Article 54 of the constitution says, “If a vacancy occurs in the office of President or if the President is unable to discharge the functions of his office on account of his absence, illness or any other cause, the Speaker shall discharge those functions until a President is elected or until the President assumes the functions of his office, as the case may be”.

Importantly, it was indicated by the US deputy assistant secretary that failure to comply with the two options – but preferably the second – would be followed by a series of strong economic sanctions against Bangladeshi individuals, including influential businessmen and political leaders.

In the event of the ruling Awami League chosing to disregard the US ultimatum, as one source described the two options, the American authorities are said to have told their interlocutors in Dhaka that due processes of law would follow against a high value Bangladeshi individual residing in that country.

Speaking to Northeast News, one of Bangladesh’s foremost constitutional experts, Shahdeen Malik, said that in the event of a situation, political or otherwise, the prime minister will have to advise the president to dissolve parliament till the time fresh elections are held. The president, in turn, will ask the cabinet to continue. And, in the event the president is indisposed, for whatever reasons, the speaker will fulfill his duties and responsibilities.

Agreeing that there are lots of faults with the 15th amendment to the constitution, Malik said that it will be politically suicidal for her if she gives in to demands to quit.

Malik concluded that Sheikh Hasina will defy such moves and that he apprehends the regime will turn repressive.

 

Bangladesh allows export of 4,000 tons of Hilsa fish to India

Ahead of West Bengal’s most prominent festival, Durga Puja, the Bangladesh government has granted permission for the export of nearly 4,000 tons of Hilsa fish to India.

This decision, announced in an official statement, aimed at catering to the high demand for Hilsa, a beloved delicacy among Bengalis.

The Bangladesh Commerce Ministry has authorized 79 business organizations to export a total of 3,950 tons of Hilsa to India.

Each exporter will be allowed to export 50 metric tons of this prized fish. The permission is valid until October 30, 2023, as per the official release from the administration led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

Hilsa, often referred to as the national fish of Bangladesh, holds a special place in the hearts of fish-loving Bengalis. It is also one of the country’s export items that boasts the Geographical Indication (GI) tag, signifying its regional significance and quality.

This decision to allow Hilsa exports to India follows a request made in 2020 by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee during Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visit to Kolkata.

Banerjee urged her Bangladeshi counterpart to consider lifting the ban on Hilsa exports to India.

In response, Prime Minister Hasina conveyed that her country would be willing to ease restrictions on Hilsa exports if India ensures a fair share of water from the Teesta River in North Bengal, a matter of significance to both nations.

 

Canadian allegations against India put United States in a pinch

The United States is caught in the middle of a diplomatic war between India and Canada, after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s allegations that Indian agents were behind the killing of a Sikh Separatist leader in the country.

The explosive allegation comes amid the Biden administration’s charm offensive toward India as a key bulwark against China, with many questioning the US relationship with India’s controversial Prime Minister, Narendra Modi.

The US reportedly worked closely with Canada in investigating the apparent murder on its soil. President Biden has not publicly commented on the allegations, highlighting the tricky balancing act of standing by Canada without alienating India.

All eyes are now on whether Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will present evidence to support his claims and just how bad relations between Ottawa and New Delhi will get before the US is forced to step in.

Since Trudeau’s public allegations against India on Tuesday, relations between the two countries have hit rock bottom. Canada has received no public support from its allies backing up the claim. 

Vivek Dehejia, professor of economics and an India-Canada policy expert at Carleton University in Ottawa, told The Hill that Canadian officials and Trudeau assumed they would get unconditional support from their allies and from the US in particular. 

“They have been disappointed by the level of support that they have received. If you look carefully at National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan’s recent comments, he’s walking a tightrope because Canada’s very dramatic allegations have put the US and other NATO allies in a bind,” he added.

On Thursday, Sullivan offered a vague statement in support of Canada’s undertaking in this investigation and said the US has also been in touch with Indian government.  

“It is a matter of concern for us. It is something we take seriously. It is something we will keep working on, and we will do that regardless of the country,” he told reporters at the White House on Thursday.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US was coordinating with Canada on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on Friday, and called for India to cooperate in the ongoing probe.

“We want to see accountability. And it’s important that the investigation run its course and lead to that result,” Blinken told reporters in New York.

The Washington Post reported earlier this week that several senior officials of Canada’s Five Eyes allies, of which the US is a member, were informed of the allegations ahead of the G20 summit in New Delhi. Nevertheless, no public comment was made by any senior leaders among the group’s members, which also include the UK, Australia and New Zealand.

According to Sadanand Dhume, a senior fellow at the Washington, DC-based American Enterprise Institute, the Biden administration has no intention of sacrificing its relationship with India over an ill-judged accusation by Trudeau.

Biden has made closer ties with India a foreign policy priority in its efforts to counter China’s influence in Asia, inviting Modi for an official state visit in June, when he also addressed Congress. 

That was the same month that masked gunmen killed Hardeep Singh Nijjar outside a Sikh temple in Vancouver. The 45-year-old separatist leader had previously been designated as a terrorist by India. 

India has long maintained that Canada has turned a blind eye toward extremist elements against India, especially Khalistani secessionists who demand a separate homeland for Sikh in the Punjab region. 

“The fact is that the Canadians have allowed some pretty dodgy people to use Canadian soil and to spread violent messages,” Dhume said.

“It’s not as though there’s deep sympathy for Canada given that Trudeau has not handled this really well. He’s really been forced into a corner here.”

Trudeau has also come under scathing criticism from some former officials back home. 

Omer Aziz, a former foreign policy advisor for Trudeau’s administration in Canada, wrote in The Globe and Mail that Ottawa’s foreign policy initiatives have never understood South Asia or India, but were instead aimed at winning over the sizable ethnic Sikh vote at home. 

“Under Trudeau, the foreign policy choices have been subordinated to domestic diaspora politics, given the importance of the Sikh diaspora in Canada, which have been important liberal voters. Trudeau, who has a minority in Canadian parliament, is only in power because of the New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh,” Dehejia told The Hill.

Singh is the first Sikh to lead a major federal party in Canada, and helped Trudeau form a minority government last year after the Liberals failed to win a majority in parliament. 

In New Delhi, the Canadian allegations have united a fractious political landscape. 

“The Indian response has been ferocious, and it’s been uniform,” said Dhume, adding that it has dredged up memories of the assassination of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in 1984 and Air India bombing the next year, both of which were linked to Sikh separatists. 

Even Modi’s main opposition, the Indian National Congress has backed his government’s stance on Trudeau and Canada in a rare show of unity. 

“The Congress reiterates that the country’s fight against terrorism has to be uncompromising, especially when it threatens India’s sovereignty, unity and integrity,” it said in a statement.

Pressure is now on Trudeau to reveal how Canada obtained the intelligence that led it to so publicly suggest the Indian government was behind the killing. 

The prime minister doubled down on his claims Thursday, again saying Canada had credible reasons to believe that agents of the government of India were involved in the killing of a Canadian on Canadian soil.

Canada may not be in a position to reveal where it got the information, Dhume said, but the Indian view is that if you’re not in a position to corroborate … then don’t make the allegation in public.

Yet ultimately it may depend on the US to settle the growing feud, which has resulted in India halting new visas for Canadians and expelling a Canadian diplomat. 

“Only the US has the ability to solve this as only they have both trust and influence in both Ottawa and New Delhi,” Dhume added. 

 

 

 

 

 

Why can’t Pakistan buy oil and gas from Iran?

The United States first imposed sanctions on Iran in 1979 on the pretext of radical students storming its embassy and taking staff hostage. Since then sanctions have remained in force, in fact new sanctions have been imposed over the years.

While the United States continues to play the mantra that Iran is busy in the production of nuclear warheads, it hasn’t come up with any credible proof. Many doubt it is a hoax call like presence of Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan and Iraq busy in the production of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

The growing perception is that the United States considers Iran a hurdle in the creation of its hegemony in the region, the major source of crude oil.

There is also growing impression among Pakistanis that the successive governments in Pakistan due to the US pressure stopped buying crude oil from Iran and didn’t go ahead on the construction of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline.

The US administration is fully cognizant of the fact that Pakistan’s GDP growth is being pegged due to looming energy crisis. However, Pakistan is not allowed to buy crude oil and gas from Iran.

It is on record that India has been buying crude oil from Iran and also from Russia, despite imposition of sanction.

It is high time Pakistan should ask the United States to allow it to import crude oil and gas from Iran.

To be honest, the United States has no legal or moral authority to restrict any country from buying Iranian energy products.

Lately, the United States has not only swapped prisoners with Iran, but also allowed transferred US$6 billion to Iran. This was in fact Korean money payable to Iran, against crude oil already purchased.

Is it not the height of hypocrisy that United States has used money which it never owned for the exchange of prisoners, but didn’t release the funds when Iran needed it the most during COVID-19 pandemic?

The time has come Pakistanis should assert themselves and convince the US that buying energy products from Iran bodes well for Pakistan. If India can pay Russia in different currencies, Pakistan should also be allowed to buy energy products from Iran against supply of food.

On may recall that during sanctions on Iraq, the country was allowed to export certain quantity of crude oil and use the proceeds for buying food under “Oil for Food Program”.

Pakistan: Prime Minister’s UN trip ends without big meetings

According to Dawn, a leading English newspaper from Pakistan, after the culmination of his five-day visit to the UN headquarters in New York, interim Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar headed to London on Saturday, amid speculations that he might have a ‘secret rendezvous’ with PML-N Supremo Nawaz Sharif in the British capital.

At a news conference on Friday evening in New York, Kakar indicated that he was returning home to work with the Election Commission and let the new government take charge of long-term relations, such as negotiating new terms with the IMF.

He did not respond when asked about a possible meeting with Nawaz Sharif. In response to a question about Sharif’s return to Pakistan in October, he said the former premier would be treated under the laws of Pakistan.

Kakar also did not respond to a question if he would visit Saudi Arabia on his way back to Islamabad.

Official sources said Kakar stopped over in Paris on his way to New York and visited the Eiffel Tower with his family. He also spent some quiet time with his family and friends in New York and was seen dining at a Turkish restaurant on Thursday night.

He did have a busy official schedule though, meeting global leaders. The list included Turkish President Recep Erdogan as well, but the meeting did not take place for some reason. He also did not have a separate meeting with the official US delegation.

According to the interim premier, he met business bodies in the US that showed interest in the economic revival plans of Pakistan through privatization and the Special Investment Facilitation Council.

The visit by an interim ruler was supposed to be a low-key affair but assumed greater importance when Canada publicly accused India of killing a Sikh leader on its soil.

Kakar responded promptly to the developing situation, terming it “a first-of-its-kind event after World War I”.

“An Asian country staging a murder on Canadian soil! Its impacts are felt across the Western countries who now realise how India is persecuting its minorities,” he said.

When a journalist objected to his using “genocide’ to describe the persecution of minorities in India, he said, “Genocide is a suitable word, not to call it a genocide will be a crime.”

“…no other word can describe what the Kashmiris are facing. While they are being killed and raped, I cannot sit here and wonder if the word genocide may hurt someone’s feelings.”

He called for the formation of an international alliance to keep in check India’s “rough behaviour” including the attacks it sponsored inside Pakistan.

Kakar said, he had a detailed meeting with IMF officials at the UN headquarters. “The IMF was very appreciative of the interim government’s steps over illegal trade of dollars,” he said, adding, “IMF did not demand anything, rather the caretaker government was giving them confidence and [it] would abide by the agreements.”

Shedding light on Pakistan-US relations, Kakar said Pakistan had an exclusive identity and it should be seen through “regional or extra-regional prisms.”