Israel allows entry of Lebanese workers for olive harvest

Israeli army announced on Tuesday that as a gesture of goodwill, it had allowed Lebanese agricultural workers to enter the country in order to harvest olive trees. The workers from Lebanese border towns have been allowed to enter Israeli territory under supervision.

"In light of the economic situation in Lebanon, and as a gesture of goodwill to the Lebanese people, the IDF opened the border to agricultural workers from Al Jabal, Itaron and Balida."

"The IDF allowed the workers to cross the Blue Line, to a certain extent, allowing them to harvest olive trees in Israeli territory. This gesture was reported to the Lebanese side by UNIFIL."

The move came just two days after IDF soldiers and Israel Police foiled an attempt to smuggle weapons and drugs across Israel’s border with Lebanon.

The economic crisis leaves the IDF concerned that there may be an increase of drug smuggling and infiltration of migrant workers and refugees along the northern border.

Lebanon and Israel are also in dispute over the delineation of their territorial waters. Negotiations between the old foes could lead to Lebanon being able to unlock valuable gas reserves amid its financial crisis.

Some two million tons of olives harvested annually worldwide, most of which is used for making olive oil. In commercial terms, olives are one of the most important fruits grown in Israel, with olive plantations in the mountains of the Galilee, on the coastal plain, in the mountains of Samaria and Ephraim.

 

Amateurish act of Israeli Defense Minister

US State Department spokesman Ned Price gave credence to American criticism of Israel’s decision to designate six Palestinian NGOs as terror organizations, saying Washington did not get a heads-up about the move.

According to a report, United States was not alone. Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz, who signed the order, did not give Prime Minister Naftali Bennett or Foreign Minister Yair Lapid any advance warning either.

If the State Department was upset at being blindsided (defense officials were later cited as saying the US was in fact informed), diplomats at Foggy Bottom can only imagine how Bennett and Lapid must feel.

That Gantz took this decision without informing Bennett or Lapid – two men who now have to deal with diplomatic fallout from the move – bespeaks of a government not working as it should.

That is a serious problem, considering it’s the government’s calling card, “Even though we are ideologically diverse, the component parts work well together for the benefit of the country.”

Gantz’s failure to let others in on his NGO decision came just three weeks after Bennett dropped a bombshell announcement during his speech to the opening of the Knesset’s winter session that the Mossad recently carried out a daring operation to recover information about missing Airman Ron Arad.

Though, Bennett briefed Lapid beforehand on what he would say, he only informed Gantz moments before he began his speech, giving the defense minister no time to object. Gantz was miffed, as evident in the briefings defense officials gave reporters, saying that the mission was a failure.

Could it be that Gantz did not brief Bennett or Lapid in advance of the NGO announcement as a tit-for-tat? One shudders at the very thought.

But something is obviously amiss. This is not the way to run a government, or to instill confidence in a politically shell-shocked nation. That the prime minister and the foreign minister did not know of this move in advance is evidence of amateurism seeping into critical government decisions.

What message does it send that the prime minister does not know what the defense minister is up to, and vice versa?

This came up at a meeting of coalition heads before Sunday’s cabinet meeting, where Meretz head Nitzan Horowitz and Labor leader Meirav Michaeli reportedly demanded of Bennett that he stop being surprised by key decisions begin made by his ministers.

At the cabinet meeting itself, Bennett – in an apparent effort to lighten the mood – told how in the middle of his meeting on Friday with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Construction and Housing Minister Ze’ev Elkin – who was acting as a translator between the leaders, turning Bennett’s Hebrew into Russian – dozed off, eliciting a wake-up elbow from the prime minister.

The Russian president, Bennett said, laughed and cracked a joke, as did – it is safe to assume – those around the cabinet table hearing the story for the first time.

But this is not very amusing. The Russian president is probably one of the canniest, shrewdest and cunningest leaders in the world, who thinks numerous steps ahead on the chessboard. Israelis officials meeting him on life-and-death issues like Syria and Iran need to be keenly alert, not drowsy.

To get tired is human, but to fall asleep while translating a key diplomatic meeting – one that could have serious ramifications for Israel’s security – is inexcusable. If Elkin was sleep-deprived going in and didn’t feel he could serve as a translator, someone else should have been sent to do the job.

This scene makes Israel look not like a world power but a shtetl, where tired senior officials fall asleep after a long journey to appeal to the czar.

The lack of coordination between Gantz, Bennett and Lapid also smacks of amateurism, something one might expect, say, when residents of an apartment building – some of whom are miffed and not talking to their neighbors – do not inform one another of key decisions affecting the whole building.

None of this makes the government look serious – and not the image it wants to project domestically or overseas.

Ayatollah Khamenei urges reversal of progress in Arab Israeli relations

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Sunday that the Arab nations who have improved ties with Israel have “sinned” and must reverse course. Four nations, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, agreed to normalize ties in 2020 under the “Abraham Accords” .

This led to Israel’s first treaties with Arab nations since reaching an agreement with Jordan in 1994. Jordan and Egypt were the only Arab nations to have existing diplomatic ties with Israel before the 2020 agreements.

“Some governments have unfortunately made big errors and have sinned in normalizing their relations with the usurping and oppressive Zionist regime,” Khamenei said. “It is an act against Islamic unity; they must return from this path and make up for this big mistake.”

Iran has positioned itself as a strong defender of the Palestinian cause since Ayatollah Khameini took power in the midst of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. “If the unity of Muslims is achieved, the Palestinian question would definitely be resolved in the best fashion,” Khamenei said.

Tensions between Iran and Israel continue to escalate as the former builds out its nuclear program, which Israel accuses of being a nuclear weapons program designed to inflict as much harm as possible. Iran has repeatedly accused Israel of sabotaging and targeting its nuclear facilities.

In response to last Monday’s reports that NIS 5 billion had been approved to prepare the military for a potential strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran’s top security official Ali Shamkhani pledged to inflict “many billions of dollars” worth of damage if Israel strikes Tehran’s nuclear program.

Need to condemn BJP leader urging India to invade Bangladesh

Reportedly, Subramanian Swamy, member of ruling Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) has urged India to invade Bangladesh and take over it if the torture over Hindus is not stopped. He made this statement while speaking to reporters at Agartala, the capital city of the northeast Indian state of Tripura on Sunday.

The outspoken BJP leader said, India will continue to support Bangladesh, but its Prime Minister Shiekh Hasina should be warned to stop those mad people from demolishing Hindu temples, converting Hindu temples into mosques and converting Hindus to Muslims.

He also urged, if Bangladesh authorities do not stop torturing Hindus, I would recommend that Indian government to invade Bangladesh.

Swamy’s frequent rhetorical outbursts on Bangladesh are often far beyond diplomatic codes. In October, 2012 Swamy first recommended invading Bangladesh. He said, “Bangladesh was created for Muslims on the premise that they cannot live with Hindus. But since Muslims from Bangladesh have entered into India and living with Hindus then the reason for the existence of a separate Muslim country doesn’t exist.”

He demanded, Bangladesh should return land in proportion to the Muslims that have immigrated into India or, India should invade Bangladesh to occupy the land.

In April 2014 he had suggested Bangladesh should compensate India with land for what he said was “the influx of its citizens” to the neighbouring country. “If Bangladesh does not agree to take back its people, then the country should compensate by giving land to India,” Swamy said.

It is necessary to remind all the civilized countries that the violence against Muslims in India, which has now become pan Indian, may also be seen with the violence and vendetta against Christians. Ironically both the Indian and western media tend to ignore the violence against Christian.

Human rights groups which monitor atrocities against Christians in India have been recording regularly the cases of violence against Christians by Hindutva groups from all states, but these have largely been unnoticed in the media or even in the human right circles.

Recent attacks on churches especially in Uttar Pradesh which is one of the most populated states of India must not be ignored.

Attacks and hate speech against Christians are common in other parts of India, particularly Chhattisgarh and Karnataka.

Let me ask Swamy a question, should the countries having faith in Christianity also attack and occupy India because of the state sponsored terrorism in India against Christians?

Turkey to expel 10 western ambassadors

Reportedly, Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced to expel the ambassadors of 10 Western countries who appealed for the release of Osman Kavala. Seven of these ambassadors represent Turkey’s NATO allies. 

The expulsions, if carried out, would cause the worst rift with the West in Erdogan’s 19 years in power.

 “I have ordered our Foreign Minister to declare these 10 ambassadors as persona non grata as soon as possible,” Erdogan said on Saturday, referring to a term used in diplomacy that signifies the first step before expulsion. He did not set a firm date.

 “They must know and understand Turkey,” Erdogan added, accusing the envoys of “indecency”.

“They must leave here the day they no longer know Turkey,” Erdogan said.

Lately, the envoys had issued a highly unusual joint statement saying the continued detention of Parisian-born activist Osman Kavala “cast a shadow” over Turkey. Kavala has become a symbol of the sweeping crackdown Erdogan unleashed after surviving the coup attempt.

The United States, Germany, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden called for a just and speedy resolution to Kavala’s case.

Speaking to the AFP news agency from his jail cell last week, Kavala said he felt like a tool in Erdogan’s attempts to blame a foreign plot for domestic opposition to his nearly two-decade rule.

Kavala said on Friday he would no longer attend his trial as a fair hearing was impossible after recent comments by Erdogan.

The Council of Europe, the continent’s top human rights watchdog, issued a final warning to Turkey to comply with a 2019 European Court of Human Rights order to release Kavala pending trial.

If Turkey fails to do so by its next meeting scheduled to commence on November 30 and continue till December 02, the Strasbourg-based council could vote to launch its first disciplinary proceedings against Ankara.

European Parliament President David Sassoli tweeted: “The expulsion of 10 ambassadors is a sign of the authoritarian drift of the Turkish government. We will not be intimidated.

A source at the German Foreign Ministry also said the 10 countries were consulting with one another. German lawmakers called for a tough response.

“Erdogan’s unscrupulous actions against his critics are becoming increasingly uninhibited,” Bundestag vice president Claudia Roth told the dpa news agency.

She said Erdogan’s “authoritarian course must be confronted internationally” and demanded sanctions and a halt to weapons exports to Turkey.

“The possible expulsion of 10 ambassadors, including the representatives of Germany and many of Turkey’s NATO allies, would be unwise, undiplomatic and would weaken the cohesion of the alliance,” lawmaker and foreign policy expert Alexander Graf Lambsdorff tweeted. “Erdogan can have no interest in that.”

Norway said its embassy had not received any notification from Turkish authorities.

“Our ambassador has not done anything that warrants an expulsion,” said the ministry’s chief spokesperson, Trude Maaseide, adding that Turkey was well aware of Norway’s views.

“We will continue to call on Turkey to comply with democratic standards and the rule of law to which the country committed itself under the European Human Rights Convention,” Maaseide said.

Danish Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod said his ministry had not received any official notification, but was in contact with its friends and allies.

“We will continue to guard our common values and principles, as also expressed in the joint declaration,” he said in a statement.

The New Great Game

Lately, Nikkei Asia after focusing on Mongolia has featured Central Asia. These are five states of the region: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. All were members of the former Soviet Union and became independent 30 years ago.

Nikkei wants it readers to look at both the latest Big Stories, on Mongolia and on Central Asia, because historically the Mongol Empire in the 13th century, under the rule of such distinguished leaders as Chinggis Khan and Kublai Khan, were pioneers during their reigns of what today has become the "Belt and Road" initiative to link infrastructure and economy.

They could make it possible, because they governed the region from China to modern day Russia and Iran. Some historians argue that Mongolia created a global trade network for the first time in human history.

In this big story, the author mentions Samarkand in Uzbekistan as the capital of the empire of Timur, the conqueror who made the city a key economic and cultural hub linking East and West in the 14th century. Timur was a descendant of the Mongolian Empire.
 
China's current expansionism is a potential threat to these "stans", as is shown from their huge loans from the communist country, which account for 43% of the government's foreign debt in Kyrgyzstan and about 40% in Tajikistan. Still, considering their geopolitical positions, without making use of the opportunities that the Belt and Road Initiative offers them, a bright future for these countries is unimaginable.

The Great Game is a historical term referring to the political and diplomatic confrontation between the British and Russian Empires over Afghanistan and neighboring territories in the 19th and early 20th centuries.

In the main illustration to this big story, we see a chessboard with a toppled Eagle having failed in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, a Dragon has approached, while the Bear is watching from a distance.

 

Surging Energy Prices May Not Ease Until Next Year, says IMF

Soaring natural gas prices are rippling through global energy markets and other economic sectors from factories to utilities. 

According to a report by International Monetary Fund (IMF), an unprecedented combination of factors is roiling world energy markets, rekindling the memories of the 1970s energy crisis and complicating an already uncertain outlook for inflation and the global economy. Energy futures indicate that prices are likely to moderate in the coming months.

Spot prices for natural gas have more than quadrupled to record levels in Europe and Asia and the persistence and global dimension of these price spikes are unprecedented. Typically, such moves are seasonal and localized. Asian prices, for example, saw a similar jump last year but those didn’t spill over with an associated similar rise in Europe.

Analysts expect prices will revert back to normal levels early next year, when heating demand ebb and supplies adjust. However, if prices stay high as they have been, this could begin to be a drag on global growth.

Meanwhile, ripple effects are being felt in coal and oil markets. Brent crude oil prices, the global benchmark, recently reached a seven-year high above US$85 per barrel, as more buyers sought alternatives for heating and power generation amid already tight supplies. Coal, the nearest substitute, is in high demand as power plants turn to it more. This has pushed prices to the highest level since 2001, driving a rise in European carbon emission permit costs.

Bust, boom, and inadequate supply

Given this backdrop, it helps to look back to the start of the pandemic, when restrictions halted many activities across the global economy. This caused a collapse of energy consumption, leading energy companies to slash investment. However, consumption of natural gas rebounded fast—driven by industrial production, which accounts for about 20 percent of final natural gas consumption—boosting demand at a time when supplies were relatively low.

Energy supply, in fact, has reacted slowly to price signals due to labor shortages, maintenance backlogs, longer lead times for new projects, and lackluster interest from investors in fossil fuel energy companies. Natural gas production in the United States, for example, remains below pre-crisis levels. Production in the Netherlands and Norway is also down. And Europe’s biggest supplier, Russia, has recently slowed its shipments to the continent.

Weather has also exacerbated gas market imbalances. The Northern Hemisphere’s severe winter cold and summer heat boosted heating and cooling demand. Meanwhile, renewable power generation has been reduced in the United States and Brazil by droughts, which curbed hydropower output as reservoirs ran low, and in Northern Europe by below-average wind generation this summer and fall.

Coal supplies and inventories

While coal can help offset natural gas shortages, some of those supplies are also disrupted. Logistical and weather-related factors have crippled production from Australia to South Africa, while coal output in China, the world’s largest producer and consumer, has fallen amid emissions goals that dis-incentivize coal use and production in favor of renewables or gas.

In fact, Chinese coal stockpiles are at record lows, which increases the threat of winter fuel supply shortfalls for power plants. And in Europe, natural gas storage is below average ahead of winter, adding risk of more price increases as utilities compete for scarce resources before the arrival of cold weather.

Energy prices and inflation

Coal and natural gas prices tend to have less of an effect on consumer prices than oil because household electricity and natural gas bills are often regulated and prices are more rigid. Even so, in the industrial sector, higher natural gas prices are confronting producers that rely on the fuel to make chemicals or fertilizers. These dynamics are particularly concerning as they are affecting already uncertain inflation prospects amid supply chain disruptions, rising food prices, and firming demand.

Should energy prices remain at current levels, the value of global fossil fuel production as a share of gross domestic product this year would rise from 4.1 percent (estimated in our July projection to 4.7 percent. Next year, the share could be as high as 4.8 percent, up from a projected 3.75 percent in July. Assuming half of this increase in costs for oil, gas, and coal is due to reduced supply, this would represent a 0.3 percentage point reduction in global economic growth this year and about 0.5 percentage points next year.

Energy prices to normalize next year

While supply disruptions and price pressures pose unprecedented challenges for a world already grappling with an uneven pandemic recovery, the silver lining for policymakers is that the situation doesn’t compare to the early 1970s energy shock.

Back then, oil prices quadrupled, directly hitting household and business purchasing power and, eventually, causing a global recession. Nearly a half century later, given the less dominant role that coal and natural gas plays in the world’s economy, energy prices would need to rise much more significantly to cause such a dramatic shock.

Moreover, we expect natural gas prices to normalize by the second quarter as the end of winter in Europe and Asia eases seasonal pressures, as futures markets also indicate. Coal and crude oil prices are also likely to decline. However, uncertainty remains high and small demand shocks could trigger fresh price spikes.

Tough policy choices

That means central banks should look through price pressures from transitory energy supply shocks, but also be ready to act sooner—especially those with weaker monetary frameworks—if concrete risks of inflation expectations de-anchoring do materialize.

Governments should act to prevent power outages in the face of utilities curtailing generation if it becomes unprofitable. Blackouts, particularly in China, could dent chemical, steel, and manufacturing activity, adding to global supply-chain disruptions during a peak season for sales of consumer goods. Finally, as higher utility bills are regressive, support to low-income households can help mitigate the impact of the energy shock to the most vulnerable populations.