Ship carrying 26,000 tons corn leaves Ukraine

According to The Joint Co-ordination Centre (JCC) of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Razoni sailed from the port of Odesa today in the early hours, carrying 26,000 tons of corn destined for Lebanon.

Ukraine Minister for Infrastructure, Alexander Kubrakov, said 16 ships have been blockaded in Odesa since the start of the war and are awaiting their turn to sail.

 “In parallel, we will receive applications for the arrival of new vessels to load agricultural products,” said Kubrakov.

JCC was set up to co-ordinate the agreement between Russia, Ukraine and the UN to facilitate the safe export of Ukraine’s large grain stocks to the world market—the Black Sea Grain Initiative. JCC comprises representatives from Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN.

The shipment aboard Razoni is expected to arrive in Turkish waters for inspection on August 02, 2022, before sailing to its final destination, Tripoli.

Under the terms of Black Sea Grain Initiative, co-ordinates have been established to create a Humanitarian Maritime Corridor. The details of the corridor have been distributed and the JCC requested participants to ensure their militaries are aware of the vessel’s passage and its right to safety.

“Today Ukraine, together with partners, takes another step to prevent world hunger,” said Ukraine Minister for Infrastructure Alexander Kubrakov.

“Unlocking ports will provide at least US$1 billion in foreign exchange revenue to the economy and an opportunity for the agricultural sector to plan for next year.”

Signed on July 22, 2022, the 120-day deal allows for the export of grain from western Ukraine ports Yuzhne, Chornomorsk, and Odesa, ports which accounted for 65% of Ukraine’s total grain exports over the past five years, according to Bimco.

While the ports historically account for almost two-thirds of grain exports, volume will undoubtedly be limited by various impacts of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

 “With this deal, the UN hopes to increase monthly grain exports from Ukraine by five million tons. However, since over the past five years, these three ports have not ever handled such a high amount of grain, meeting this target could prove to be a challenge,” said Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at Bimco.

“Even if port logistics accelerate to expedite exports, the need to escort ships in and out of the ports is likely to cause some congestion.” 

There are also questions over whether seafarers, operators, ship owners, and insurers will be willing and able to work in the region.

Ukraine is a significant producer of grains and oilseeds, with arable land accounting for around 55% of its land area according to the US Department for Agriculture (USDA) and agriculture accounting for 41% of Ukraine’s total exports by value in 2021.

Some 22 million tons of grain are stranded in Ukraine ready for export, and a further export surplus of 25 million tons is expected from the 2022 harvest. There is an urgent need to move grain; with the wheat harvest underway and corn harvest to follow in September, stored grain needs to be exported swiftly to make room for the new crop.

“A significant obstacle to Ukrainian grain exports will be the voyage risk and corresponding insurance premiums. For the shipping of Ukrainian grain to be attractive, high rates will be necessary to mitigate risk-related expenses,” said Rasmussen. “Russia’s recent missile strikes in ports such as Odesa will add to the insecurity and uncertainty of operating in the Black Sea.” 

The impact of the war in Ukraine has hit production for key agricultural exports. Usually the world’s largest producer and exporter of sunflower meal and oil, Ukraine’s sunflower meal exports are forecast to fall from almost 66% of global exports to 40%, and sunflower oil exports are forecast down from almost half of global exports to 35%.

 “Due to limited global supply of wheat and maize, a return of Ukrainian grain to the global market would positively impact the Panamax, Supramax and Handysize segments. Additionally, the boost in Ukrainian exports would help combat inflation and food insecurity, particularly in emerging economies, and help bring needed stability to the global economy,” said Bimco.

 

Saga of Turkish Flotilla Continues to Haunt

Twelve years after the Mavi Marmara incident caused an unprecedented diplomatic crisis between former allies Israel and Turkey, the ties between the two countries are warming up again.

Ankara broke off relations with Jerusalem following a raid by Israeli commandos on a Gaza-bound ship trying to break the naval blockade of the Hamas-run enclave. Ten pro-Palestinian Turks who were part of Turkey’s Humanitarian Relief Foundation (IHH) were killed after they attacked the commandos.

The Mavi Marmara was part of a flotilla heading to the blocked Gaza Strip to deliver humanitarian aid.

 It was the largest in a six-vessel convoy that tried to break the siege imposed by both Israel and Egypt that was designed to prevent Hamas and other groups from importing weapons and other goods that could help their military build-up.

The blockade was imposed in 2007 after Hamas took over the coastal enclave, making all goods that enter Gaza be imported under Israeli supervision through land crossings. Several ships had, over the years, attempted to break the blockade, but were stopped by the Israeli Navy and deported from Israel.

 “We can’t let anyone in. If we let one in, we will lose control and if we did that, within three months, we would see Iranian ships in Gaza,” said Eliezer Marom, commander of the Israeli Navy from 2007–2011.

Marom was commander at the time of the Mavi Marmara and, now part of Habithonistim, a movement of Israeli defense officials who advocate for the country’s future security needs, he sat with the Magazine to tell his story.

“I spoke with the Turkish, Greek, and Italian navy chiefs and warned that there could be blood,” he said. “A military operation was our last resort. Violating our maritime borders violates our sovereignty.”

“Whoever wants to bring aid to Gaza, that’s OK. But it must be by land,” he said. “We won’t let anyone into Gaza by sea. A land and sea border is the same, even though there is no physical barrier.”

But those aboard the Mavi Marmara were different. “All of them were terrorists who belonged to IHH, and wanted to kill Israeli soldiers.”

 “It was a different story and needed to be treated seriously,” noted Marom. “It was a civilian ship that decided that it wanted to provoke and challenge Israel.”

He explained that following diplomatic and legal measures taken by Israel to stop the flotilla, the IDF and other security bodies prepared a military operation.

The operation to stop the flotilla, he said, “was the largest Navy operation” with thousands of soldiers at sea, a thousand more in Ashdod and 30 maritime vessels.

“The operation was to take over all the ships simultaneously,” he said. “I wanted to do it at night, when it’s more comfortable to act. And we wanted it to be fast” he added, explaining that Israel knew that the ships had antennas to broadcast what was happening aboard.

The navy initially made contact with the ships in the flotilla late on Sunday evening, going ship to ship and ordering them to follow them to Ashdod Port or be boarded at dawn.

The boarding of the ships started at 2 a.m. the next morning and at 4 a.m. Israeli commandos descended on ropes from helicopters onto the Mavi Marmara and were immediately attacked with clubs, knives, and metal rods. Three soldiers were taken captive.

Troops opened fire after a protester, later identified as Ken O’Keefe, a former US marine aboard the Mavi Marmara, seized a gun from one of them. When it was all over, nine of the flotilla activists were killed and dozens more were wounded, including Israeli troops. Another activist died in hospital, four years later.

“All of them were terrorists who belonged to IHH, and wanted to kill Israeli soldiers,” said Marom, adding that “they planned to do it.”

According to the former navy chief, “we didn’t have enough intelligence. If we knew that they were IHH, we would have acted differently.”

And just like Israel wasn’t expecting such violence, neither was Turkey, said Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, an expert on Turkey and Turkish history at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, and Tel Aviv University’s Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, “In hindsight, Turkey did not expect casualties, physical damage like during a street fight maybe, but in my opinion, they didn’t expect casualties and the incident forced them to downgrade relations.”

“None of the organizers want to take responsibility. After seeing 10 people killed, none of the organizers can do such an initiative because they can be accused of leading people to their death. These flotillas were departing from European countries; it’s not easy to take such an initiative because they have to face the consequences of the act.” 

Russia and Ukraine agree to allow food shipments out of the Black Sea

Russia and Ukraine agreed to a deal Friday to open Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea, releasing stalled grain shipments into world markets to help alleviate an ongoing food crisis and bring down global prices.

The deal between the two countries was mediated through Turkey, which helped to broker the agreement under the auspices of the United Nations. The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has led to a de facto blockade of Black Sea ports that have been unable to export agricultural goods like fertilizer and grain.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, speaking at the signing ceremony in Istanbul, hailed the deal as a “beacon of relief in a world that needs it more than ever.”

“To the representations of the Russian Federation and Ukraine, you have overcome obstacles and put aside differences to pave the way for an initiative that will serve the common interests of all. Promoting the welfare of humanity has been the driving force of these talks,” he said.

The deal will open a passage for significant volumes of commercial food export from the ports of Odessa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhne, Guterres said. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said that naval mines in Ukrainian ports had been an issue for exports in the past.

“The shipment of grain and food stocks into all markets will help bridge the global food supply gap and reduce pressure for high prices,” Guterres added.

Turkish President Recep Erdogan said at the ceremony the agreement would help to ease pressure on global food prices.

“We are also helping with controlling food inflation, which has become a global problem,” Erdogan said.

Speaking to reporters later Friday, White House national security spokesman John Kirby said that the United States welcomes the development but said officials would be watching it closely, noting that Russia will need to actually comply with the agreement in order for it to be effective.  

Kirby described the Biden administration as both hopeful and “clear-eyed” about the deal.  

“If it’s fully implemented and complied with it will have an impact, but it’s just too soon to know,” Kirby said.

Other international leaders hailed the agreement.

“Putin’s barbaric invasion of Ukraine has meant some of the poorest and most vulnerable people in the world are at risk of having nothing to eat. It is vital that Ukrainian grain reaches international food markets, and we applaud Turkey and the UN Secretary General for their efforts to broker this agreement,” United Kingdom Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said in a statement from the UK foreign ministry.

Global food prices are up more than 23% since last year, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), though they have been ticking down since May. In the US, food prices are up more than 10% annually.

Global prices for grains have fallen more than 4% since a recent high in May but are still more than 27% higher than they were a year ago, according to the FAO. Wheat prices are nearly 50% higher than they were last year.

A logistical coordination center will also be set up as part of the agreement to monitor its implementation, Guterres said.

Khamenei advises Erdogan not to launch military operation in Syria

Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Khamenei received Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his delegation on Tuesday. During the meeting, the Leader of the Islamic Revolution emphasized the need to increase cooperation between the two countries, especially commercial cooperation.

Discussing the Syrian conflict, the Leader reiterated the need to honor the territorial integrity of Syria. Responding to some statements about a possible Turkish military operation in northern Syria, he said, “Maintaining the territorial integrity of Syria is very important and any military attack in northern Syria will definitely harm Turkey, Syria and the entire region, and it will benefit the terrorists.”

Leader warned, if there is a policy to block the border between Iran and Armenia, the Islamic Republic will oppose it, as this border is a connection route that has been thousands of years old. The Leader added, “This is definitely to the detriment of Syria, Turkey, and the region. It will not achieve the expected political results from the Syrian government.”

Khamenei said the honor and greatness of the Islamic Ummah will be dependent on overcoming differences of opinion, as well as vigilance against divisive policies, mentioning the occupation regime of Israel as one of the causes of discord and enmity in the region.

The Leader considered Palestine as the first issue of the Islamic world and emphasized, “Despite the favor of some governments towards the Zionist regime, the nations are deeply opposed to this usurping regime.”

Emphasizing that the US and the Israeli regime should not be relied upon, he underlined, “Today, neither the Zionist regime, nor the United States, nor others will be able to stop the deep-rooted movement of the Palestinians, and the end result will be in the interest of the Palestinian people.”

Referring to the Turkish president's hatred of terrorist groups, Khamenei said terrorism must be countered, but a military attack in Syria will benefit terrorists, although terrorists are not limited to a specific group.

In response to the Turkish president's request for Iran's cooperation in fighting terrorist groups, the Leader said, “We will certainly cooperate with you in the fight against terrorism.”

Emphasizing that Tehran considers the security of Turkey and its borders as its own, Khamenei told Erdogan, “You also consider the security of Syria to be your security. The Syrian issues should be resolved through negotiations, and Iran, Turkey, Syria and Russia should resolve this issue through dialogue.”

Erdogan said, “In Syria, terrorist groups are supported by heavy weaponry from Western countries such as Germany, England, France, and especially the United States.”The Leader of the Islamic Revolution also called the rising cooperation between Iran and Turkey on all regional issues useful and necessary and said Iran has always defended Erdogan’s government in internal conflicts and against interference.

“As you said, we are friends of each other in difficult times and we pray for the Muslim nation of Turkey,” the Leader highlighted. 

Khamenei called the volume and quality of economic exchanges and cooperation between the two countries much less than the existing capacities, stressing that this issue should be resolved in the negotiations between the presidents.

In the meeting, which was also attended by President Ebrahim Raisi, Erdogan said it is necessary to unite the Islamic Ummah and increase the solidarity between Iran and Turkey. 

“Turkey has never been silent in the face of injustices against Iran, and the brotherhood of Iran and Turkey should expand in all areas,” Erdogan said in reference to illegal sanctions against Iran. 

Emphasizing that he has always been and will be against unilateral sanctions against Iran, Erdogan pointed out that Ankara supports Iran's legitimate demands based on the JCPOA talks and encourages Turkish companies to invest in Iran.

Referring to Iran and Turkey’s campaigns against terrorists for many years, the Turkish president said, “In Syria, terrorist groups are supported by heavy weaponry from Western countries such as Germany, England, France, and especially the United States.”

Erdogan concluded his remarks by stating that Turkey's position regarding the territorial integrity of Syria is clear, saying, “We expect the Syrian government to start political processes. At the Astana process, the Syrian issue is on top of the agenda, and we hope to achieve good results.”

Putin arrives in Iran

On Tuesday, in his first trip since the invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Iran for a summit with his Iranian and Turkish counterparts.

The three countries are working together to try to reduce the violence in Syria despite supporting opposing sides in the war. Russia and Iran are Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s strongest backers, while Turkey supports anti-Assad insurgents.

Turkish President, Tayyip Erdogan has threatened to launch another operation in Northern Syria, which Tehran and Moscow oppose. In Tehran, Putin and Erdogan will meet to discuss a deal aimed at resuming Ukraine’s Black Sea grain exports.

The emergence of an US-backed Arab-Israeli bloc that could tilt the Middle East balance of power further away from Iran has accelerated its clerical rulers’ efforts to strengthen strategic ties with the Kremlin.

“Considering the evolving geopolitical ties after the Ukraine war, the establishment tries to secure Moscow’s support in Tehran’s confrontation with Washington and its regional allies,” said a senior Iranian official, who asked not to be named.

Sending a clear message to the West that Russia will seek to boost ties with anti-West Iran, Putin will meet the Islamic Republic’s most powerful authority, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, just a few days after US President Joe Biden visited Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Putin’s visit to Tehran is watched closely as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reconfigured the global oil market and because of Washington’s warning about Tehran’s plan to provide Russia with up to several hundred drones. Tehran has denied selling drones to Moscow to use in Ukraine.

Emboldened by high oil prices after the Ukraine war, Tehran is betting that with Russia’s support it could pressure Washington to offer concessions for revival of a 2015 nuclear deal.

Under the deal, Tehran curbed its sensitive nuclear work in exchange for lifting international sanctions.

But former US President Donald Trump exited the pact in 2018 and reimposed crippling sanctions on Iran. A year later, Tehran started violating nuclear limits of the pact.

Almost a year of indirect talks between Tehran and Washington in Vienna stalled in March, with Iran questioning the United States’ resolve and Washington calling on Tehran to drop extra demands.

But Moscow and Tehran, both subject to US sanctions, have overlapped interests. Iran, whose oil industry has struggled for years under US sanctions, has long relied on Chinese oil purchases to keep the economy afloat. Since the start of Ukraine war, Moscow has taken away Iran’s oil market in Asia.

In May, Reuters reported that Iran’s crude exports to China have fallen sharply as Beijing favoured heavily discounted Russian barrels, leaving almost 40 million barrels of Iranian oil stored on tankers at sea in Asia and seeking buyers.

 

Iranian non-oil trade with neighbors up 18% during March-June 2022 quarter

The value of Iran’s non-oil trade with its neighboring countries increased 18% during the first three months of the current Iranian calendar year (March-June), as compared to the same period last year, the spokesman of Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA) announced.

Ruhollah Latifi put Iran’s non-oil trade with its neighbors at 20.973 million tons worth US$12.363 billion in the three-month period.

He said trade with the neighbors accounted for 49% of the value and 59% of the weight of Iran’s non-oil trade during the period under review.

The country exported 16.05 million tons of non-oil goods worth US$6.736 billion to the neighboring countries in the three-month period of this year, indicating 20% rise in value, while 10% drop in weight, as compared to the same period last year, the official stated.

He named Iraq, Turkey, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Afghanistan, and Oman as the five top export destinations.

Latifi further announced that Iran imported 4.433 million tons of goods worth US$5.627 billion from its neighbors during this period, with 15% growth in value and one percent rise in weight YoY.

He named UAE, Turkey, Russia, Pakistan, and Oman as the five top sources of imports.

As previously announced by the IRICA head, the value of Iran’s non-oil trade with its neighbors during the previous Iranian calendar year 1400 was reported at US$51.875 billion, an increase of 43% YoY.

Alireza Moghadasi put the weight of non-oil trade with the neighboring countries at 100.131 million tons in the said year, stating that trade with the neighbors also increased by 23% in terms of weight.

The official put the annual non-oil exports to the mentioned countries at 75.445 million tons valued at US$26.29 billion, with a 29% rise in value and a 12% growth in weight.

Major export destinations of the Iranian non-oil goods were Iraq with US$8.9 billion, followed by Turkey (US$6.1 billion), United Arab Emirates (US$4.9 billion), Afghanistan US$1.8 billion) and Pakistan with (US$1.3 billion) in imports from the Islamic Republic, others countries included Oman, Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, according to the official.

Moghadasi further stated that Iran imported 24.686 million tons of non-oil commodities worth over US$25.846 billion in the previous year, with a 60% growth in value and a 68%YoY increase in weight.

The United Arab Emirates was the top exporter to Iran during the period exporting US$16.5 billion worth of goods to the country, followed by Turkey, Russia, Iraq, and Oman, he stated.

Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Armenia, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain were other top neighboring countries that supplied goods to Iran in 1400, respectively.

Increasing non-oil exports to the neighboring countries is one of the major plans that the Iranian government has been pursuing in recent years.

Iran shares land or water borders with 15 countries namely UAE, Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Russia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, and Saudi Arabia.

Israel takes aim at ruining Iran Turkey ties

In the recent past, Israel has launched an all-out media campaign against Iran that included bizarre claims of Iranian threats against ordinary tourists in neighboring Turkey. 

Israeli media and officials first issued warnings of imminent alleged threats from Iran to Israeli tourists in Turkey and then claimed that several attacks were foiled as a result of Turkish-Israeli security cooperation.

“The operational efforts with the Turkish security forces have borne fruit,” Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett claimed.  “In recent days, in a joint Israeli-Turkish effort, we thwarted a number of attacks and a number of terrorists were arrested on Turkish soil.”

Neither Bennett nor other Israeli officials have offered any kind of evidence to support their claims.

The string of warnings began last week when several Israeli officials alleged that there were concrete threats that Iran was allegedly trying to target Israelis in Istanbul over the weekend, and urged all Israeli citizens to leave Turkey immediately.

Iran has officially responded to Israeli hyperboles. Iran believes that Israel is openly spreading lies unworthy of a response.

Nour News, a news outlet close to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said Iran is determined to avenge the assassination of Colonel Sayad Khodaei but it’ll not target innocent people. 

“Given the past experiences, Israel is well aware of the certainty of Iran’s response to this regime’s mischief and terrorist moves such as the martyrdom of Sayad Khodaei,” Nour News said, adding, “The officials of this regime also know that the Islamic Republic of Iran will not punish innocent individuals when taking vengeance on the Zionist government’s crimes.”

The outlet said the leaders of Israel know that only the perpetrators and those who issued orders will be punished. This is why Israeli officials seek to mobilize the public with unfounded claims to increase the cost of Iran’s revenge, according to Nour News. 

The Israeli claims are intended to achieve another goal. According to Nour News, Israeli officials want to pitch Turkey and Iran against each other through unfounded claims. This is while the Iranian and Turkish foreign ministers have recently spoken over the phone and discussed ways to boost bilateral ties. 

This month, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu spoke over the phone twice in less than a week. In the first call, they discussed the latest developments in bilateral relations, according to the Iranian foreign ministry.

Amir Abdollahian stressed the need to keep up the consultations between the two countries and promote cooperation, especially in bilateral trade and consular issues. The top Turkish diplomat invited his Iranian counterpart to visit Ankara for talks on issues of mutual interest in the near future.

In the second call, Cavusoglu once again extended an invitation to Amir Abdollahian to visit Turkey and expressed hope that continued negotiations between the officials of the two countries will help boost bilateral ties and increase their cooperation.

Amir Abdollahian reaffirmed Tehran’s determination to boost ties with Turkey more than ever before. The top Iranian diplomat also expressed hope that the two sides will hold more consultations over the matter.

The Israeli claims come against a backdrop of broader tensions between Iran and Israel. Israeli officials have ramped up their threats against Iran and, recently, even boasted about taking the battle into Iran. Bennett and other Israeli officials are now talking of ‘Octopus Doctrine’ a new strategy allegedly aimed at dealing with Iran directly instead of countering its allies in the West Asia region.

“The past year has been a year of changing course in Israel’s strategy vis-à-vis Iran,” Bennett said on June 7 at a meeting of the parliamentary defense and foreign affairs committee, according to the New York Times. “We have shifted into a higher gear. We are acting at all times and places, and we will continue to do so.”

Iran has said it will respond to Israeli provocative measures. Amir Abdollahian has recently said Israel must stop its provocative and hostile behavior.

In late May, IRGC chief Major General Hossein Salami vowed revenge for Sayyad Khodaei. He blamed the assassination of Khodaei on Israel, underlining that Iran will avenge his killing.

 

Israel using gas exports to boost its diplomatic influence

A visit to the Leviathan gas rig off the coast of Haifa illustrates Israel’s opportunity to up its gas game and wield its diplomatic power across the globe. The gas rig is actually quite big.

With three main levels and pipes that seem to go on forever – leaving one wonder how someone figured out how to connect them all.

Leviathan is the largest gas rig in Israeli waters that receives gas from the country’s largest gas reservoir located well over 100 km away. The gas flows through the rig where it is cleaned and then propelled directly to Israel where it immediately powers the country.

Russian invasion of Ukraine has opened what some in the industry call “historic opportunities” for the Jewish state to up its energy game and, in return, increase its diplomatic value and standing in the Middle East and beyond.

The illustrations are bountiful, but two are important: In March, President Isaac Herzog flew to Turkey and met with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Last month, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu visited Jerusalem for talks with Foreign Minister Yair Lapid.

Ankara is heavily reliant on Russia for energy – including 45% of its natural gas and 17% of its oil. Reconciliation with Israel and improving relations is the key for Turkey to be able to potentially diversify its suppliers and cut back its dependence on Russia.

The second example was the flip-flop that Israeli Energy Minister Karin Elharrar did on May 30 when she announced that her ministry would be issuing licenses for new exploration of natural gas in Israeli waters. It was a sharp turn from what the Yesh Atid had announced just six months earlier in December 2021.

Elharrar said, “In the coming year we will focus on the future, on green energy, on energy optimization and on renewable energy, and while we do so we will put aside the development of natural gas, which, as is known, is a short-term solution.”

By May 30, Elharrar was singing a different mantra, “The global energy crisis provides an opportunity for Israel to export natural gas, along with the honest and real concern for what is going on in Europe.”

A global energy crisis and the recognition that Israel can play a role in resolving it and at the same time improving its international standing, makes the big difference.

“The world changed and we cannot ignore it,” said Energy Ministry Director General Lior Schillat. “There is a rise in the demand for gas especially in Europe since the Russia situation and they need a steady supply and the minister did a reassessment in the middle of the year instead of at the end of the year since we think it is possible to increase the supply.”

Oded Eran, Israel’s former Ambassador to the European Union, said that the developments in Europe are a historic opportunity for Israel and the energy minister’s policy reversal needs to be looked at through that prism. On the one hand, Eran explained, was the populist-driven decision last December to stop exploration which had wanted to put Israel on track with the climate change camp while ignoring the economic and diplomatic opportunities that gas provides the country.

Until now, Eran added, Israel was not viewed as an international energy player but just as a regional one. “But now with the war in Ukraine, you can see that Israel is not unimportant,” he said.

As an example, Eran referred to US President Joe Biden’s promise in March to transfer 15 billion cubic meters (BCM) of liquefied natural gas to Europe by the end of 2022 to help with the shortfall caused by the war in Ukraine. Israel, he said, already exports about 10 BCM of natural gas to Jordan and Egypt.

“This is not far from the amount that Biden promised Europe,” he said.

United States no longer supports EastMed pipeline

The United States no longer supports the proposed EastMed natural-gas pipeline from Israel to Europe; the Biden administration has informed Israel, Greece and Cyprus.

The reversal of position from that of the Trump administration was first reported in Greece earlier this month. Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette expressed US support for the pipeline when they were in office.

Washington informed Athens it was reversing course from the Trump administration in a “non-paper,” a diplomatic term for an unofficial, or off-the-record, communication this month.

 “The American side expressed to the Greek side reservations as to the rationale of the EastMed pipeline and raised issues of its economic viability and environmental issues,” a Greek government source told Reuters.

“The Greek side highlighted that this project has been declared a ‘special project’ by the European Union and any decision on its viability will logically have an economic impact,” the official said.

The EastMed pipeline, meant to transfer natural gas from Israeli waters to Europe via Greece and Cyprus, was announced in 2016, and several agreements have been signed between the three countries on the subject. The three states aimed to complete the €6 billion project by 2025, but no financing has been secured for it.

The US Embassy in Jerusalem said that the Americans “remain committed to the energy security and connectivity of the Eastern Mediterranean.”

Among the proposals the US supports is the EuroAsia interconnector linking Israeli, Cypriot and European electricity grids, “allowing for future exports of electricity produced by renewable energy sources, benefiting nations in the region.” The interconnector “would not only connect vital energy markets, but also help prepare the region for the clean energy transition,” the embassy said.

The US Embassy also said this is “a time when Europe’s energy security is – more than ever – a question of national security,” and as such, the US is “committed to deepening our regional relationships and promoting clean energy technologies.”

The US Embassy in Greece made a similar statement last week, saying Washington still supports the 3+1 mechanism of meetings between Israel, Greece, Cyprus and the US.

Claims over natural gas in the Eastern Mediterranean have been a point of contention with Turkey in recent years, with Ankara saying it should be part of the EastMed project.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan took the opportunity of the US withdrawing its support to say. “If Israeli gas would be brought to Europe, it could only be done through Turkey. Is there any hope for now? We can sit and talk about the conditions.”

He also noted his recent phone calls with Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and President Isaac Herzog and said engagement with Israel had improved.

Turkish state media channel TRT last week aired a documentary opposing the EastMed pipeline titled The Pipe Dream, which includes footage of State Department Senior Advisor for Energy Security Amos Hochstein discussing the matter before he was appointed to his current position.

Hochstein said he would be “extremely uncomfortable with the US supporting this project” because of its environmental implications.

“Why would we build a fossil fuel pipeline between the EastMed and Europe when our entire policy is to support new technology... and new investments in going green and in going clean?” he asked. “By the time this pipeline is built we will have spent billions of taxpayer money on something that is obsolete – not only obsolete but against our collective interest between the US and Europe.”

Hochstein said the project was not financially feasible. It would cost more than €6 billion, he said, adding that international financial institutions no longer are committed to investing in fossil fuels.

The pipeline plan was “totally driven by politics,” but “multibillion-dollar deals should be driven by the commercial side,” Hochstein said.

“This idea came up in 2016, but no movement has been made except for signing some contracts, MOUs [memorandums of understanding] and the big hoopla of politics... Some ministers in the region are talking about the EU supporting [the plan]; they agreed to a feasibility study on the project. That’s a big difference,” he said.

“This is politicians talking, but there’s [nothing] there,” Hochstein said. “This project probably will not happen because it’s too complicated, too expensive and too late in the arch of history.”

Gabriel Mitchell, director of external relations for the Mitvim Institute for Regional Foreign Policy, said Israel’s relationship with Greece and Cyprus, which has grown very warm in recent years, does not depend on the EastMed pipeline.

“The cooperation between the parties has expanded beyond the narrow scope of an undersea pipeline project, incorporating multiple fields and inter-ministerial cooperation,” he said.

Regarding Israel’s future in exporting natural gas, the EastMed was never its only option, Mitchell said.

“The story of the EastMed pipeline should serve as a reminder that these projects require a high level of commercial, technical and political feasibility,” he said. “As one door potentially closes, others could open that present a different but no less important set of commercial and geopolitical opportunities.”

“The EastMed pipeline’s feasibility issues were well-documented, but in the end, it may be other energy initiatives – such as the EuroAsia interconnector – that become the tripartite relationship’s flagship project,” Mitchell said.

Revival of Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul goods train

Resuming operations after 10 years, the first Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul (ITI) train carrying goods from Pakistan to Turkey via Iran arrived in into Ankara on Wednesday, January 05, 2022.

The ITI cargo train started its journey from Islamabad on December 21, 2021, and arrived in Ankara in around 13 days. Turkey’s Transport and Infrastructure Minister Adil Karaismailoğlu, Pakistani parliamentarian Makhdoom Zain Hussain Qureshi and Iranian Ambassador to Turkey Mohammad Farazmand attended a ceremony held to mark the arrival of the train.

Departing from the Margalla station in Islamabad, the train embarked on its 5,981-kilometer (3,666-mile) route, arriving in 12 days and 21 hours. The cargo train aims at boosting trade between Pakistan, Iran and Turkey. The train comprised of eight loaded wagons, 20 feet (6 meters) in length, each with a capacity of 22 tons.

Karaismailoğlu in his speech said the new railway will offer another option to industrialists and business people on the Pakistan-Iran-Turkey route.

“It will save time and cost as compared to sea transportation between Pakistan and Turkey, which takes 35 days, and will lead to the development of trade between the two countries,” he said.  

“Thus, with the Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul train, a new railway corridor will be provided to our exporters in the south of Asia – which has the highest population density globally – reaching Pakistan, neighboring India, China, Afghanistan and Iran. In this way, our country will be one step closer to its goals of becoming a bridge and logistics base between Asia and Europe,” Karaismailoğlu added.

Speaking at the ceremony, Qureshi highlighted that the ITI train would play an important role in enhancing regional connectivity and promoting economic and commercial activities in the ECO (Economic Cooperation Organization) region. Iran, Pakistan and Turkey established the Regional Cooperation for Development organization in 1964, renaming it the ECO in 1985.

Qureshi added that the train would offer Pakistan an opportunity to further increase its exports and strengthen its connectivity with international markets, including in Europe.

“The current government in Pakistan believes in regional connectivity and we feel that to play a role at the national stage we need to be economically reliable. In order to do that, we need to not only have peace in our region but also increase the trade within our neighborhood and this ITI project will become a friendship project.

“We get access to the European markets and Turkey gets access to the central Asian states so it is a mutually beneficial arrangement and I hope it will be sustainable and we can grow from it further,” Qureshi told Anadolu Agency (AA) in an interview.

Ambassador Farazmand in his speech explained that the ITI railway project was first launched in 2009 under the ECO but remained suspended due to technical issues, restarting a decade later.

He emphasized that the three countries also plan to launch a passenger train along the same route in the near future.

The first train from Islamabad to Istanbul was inaugurated on August 14, 2009. Since then, eight trains have been dispatched from Pakistan to Turkey and Turkey dispatched six trains to Pakistan, but the train service was discontinued due to floods in the South Asian nation in 2009.

Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul freight train service

The Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul (ITI) railway project, or ECO freight train, was inaugurated with the first freight train moving on Tuesday during a ceremony attended by Iranian and Pakistani officials.

Pakistani Minister for Railways Azam Khan Swati, along with Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, and Adviser to the Prime Minister on Commerce Abdul Razak Dawood inaugurated the Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul freight train at Margalla railway station, in Islamabad.

Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan Seyed Mohammad Ali Hosseini, as well as the ambassadors of Turkey, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan to Pakistan, in addition to the representative of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) were also present at the ceremony.

Addressing the ceremony, the Pakistani minister for railways said, "Launching of the container train from Pakistan to Iran and Turkey was a long-standing dream of the countries of the region, which has come true again”.

Terming the ITI freight train an important milestone in Pakistan’s history, the minister said that business-to-business contact among the business community would further enhance through this train. He said the service would further strengthen relations between the three countries.

Also, Pakistani Foreign Minister Qureshi appreciated the resumption of ITI freight train and said the service would play an important role in regional connectivity and promoting economic activity in the region.

Adviser to the Prime Minister of Pakistan on Commerce Abdul Razak Dawood, for his part, said that ECO train as one of the most effective vehicles can help in expanding exports, imports and trade between member countries.

The length of the Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul railway is 6,500 km, of which 2,570 km is in Iran, 2,000 km in Turkey and about 1,900 km in Pakistan, which takes less than half the shipping time and will also be safer and more economical as compared to road.

ITI freight train will be operated regularly on Tuesday of every week. The freight train had nine wagons initially, said a senior railway official.

As per present arrangement to start the train and the schedule agreed jointly by Turkey, Iran and Pakistan, the running time between Drence-Kapikoy (Istanbul) and Zahedan-Tabraiz (Iran) will be 90 hours each. From Zahedan to Islamabad, the train would take 135.5 hours.

 

Iran’s growing trade with ECO member countries

Iran’s trade with the members of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) exceeded US$10.447 billion in the first eight months of the current Iranian calendar year (March 21-November 22) to register a 44% increase year on year (YoY), the spokesman of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA) said.

According to Ruhollah Latifi, the volume of trade with the mentioned countries also increased by 34 percent in comparison to the previous year’s same eight months, IRNA reported.

As reported, during the mentioned period Iran traded over 21,778,387 tons of commodities worth US$10.447 billion with ECO member countries including Turkey, Afghanistan, the Republic of Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

Iran exported 18.631 million tons of commodities worth over US$6.823 billion to the said nations in the mentioned period.

He said major export destinations of the Iranian goods in the said union were Turkey with about US$3.767 billion of imports, Afghanistan with US$1.27 billion, Pakistan with US$764.389 million, and Azerbaijan with US$335.843 million.

As reported, the Islamic Republic’s export to ECO members increased by 46% and 54% as compared to the figures for the previous year in terms of weight and value, respectively.

Meanwhile, the country imported 3,147,332 tons of goods valued at over US$3.623 billion from the ECO member countries, with Turkey, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan being the top sources of imported goods.

The value of Iranian imports from the ECO union also increased by 28% as compared to the previous year’s same time span, the official said.

According to Latifi, more than 23.723 million tons of goods worth US$11.71 billion were traded between Iran and the ECO member countries during the previous Iranian calendar year (ended on March 20), of which the share of exports was 18.419 million tons of goods worth US$6.890 billion and the share of imports from these countries was 5.312 million tons worth US$4.819 billion.

The value of Iran’s non-oil trade during the first eight months of the current year stood at about US$33 billion, Latifi had previously announced.

The Economic Cooperation Organization or ECO is an Asian political and economic intergovernmental organization that was founded in 1985 in Tehran by the leaders of Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey.

 

Iran keen in developing links with neighbors

Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran for Economic Diplomacy Mehdi Safari has said it is a priority to expand economic and trade cooperation with neighbors, saying the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) can help achieve this goal.

Safari made the remarks at a meeting with ECO Secretary-General Khosrow Nazeri on the eve of the ECO summit in Turkmenistan, Mehr reported on Wednesday.

ECO includes Iran, Turkey, Afghanistan, the Republic of Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

At the meeting, the ECO chief presented a report on the process to prepare for the summit in Ashgabat and hailed Iran for its assistance in this regard.

Safari said expansion of economic and trade cooperation with neighbors is a priority of the new Iranian administration and stressed the role of ECO in achieving the goals of member countries.

The top diplomat said a plan by Iran to send a high-level team to the forthcoming summit signifies the prominent position of ECO.

Safari said Iran is ready help ECO members to implement important decisions at the ECO summit in Ashgabat.

Iranian Transport and Urban Development Minister Rostam Qasemi said that positive agreements have been reached with neighboring countries, for expansion of transportation cooperation, especially in the aviation sector, IRNA reported.

Speaking at the ceremony on introducing the new head of Civil Aviation Organization (CAO), Qasemi said, “We recently reached agreements with Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan, part of which is related to the development of aviation.”

According to the official, the expansion of transportation cooperation with other countries will lead to the expansion of trade ties and eventually will increase the country’s revenues.

“We have made plans for upgrading our transportation fleet. However, we need effective measures to be taken for the development of the aviation industry,” he stressed.

He further stated that the most important factor in the development of the aviation industry is the use of specialists to promote it, adding: “In order to empower the aviation industry to meet the needs of the country, we need more work to be done, and this capability exists inside the country.”

Elsewhere in his remarks, Qasemi mentioned the needs of other transportation sectors including road, maritime, and rail, and said, “The transport sector needs to modernize its fleet, and we have not yet achieved the goals of the program in the rail, sea, and land sectors.”

Ghasemi pointed to the existing problems in the railway fleet and also the incompleteness of the country’s railway corridors and said, "Conditions in the railway sector are not favorable, the average life of the road transportation fleet is high and in the sea sector, despite high capacities, the capacity of the country’s ports has not been used well."

 

Turkey to expel 10 western ambassadors

Reportedly, Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced to expel the ambassadors of 10 Western countries who appealed for the release of Osman Kavala. Seven of these ambassadors represent Turkey’s NATO allies. 

The expulsions, if carried out, would cause the worst rift with the West in Erdogan’s 19 years in power.

 “I have ordered our Foreign Minister to declare these 10 ambassadors as persona non grata as soon as possible,” Erdogan said on Saturday, referring to a term used in diplomacy that signifies the first step before expulsion. He did not set a firm date.

 “They must know and understand Turkey,” Erdogan added, accusing the envoys of “indecency”.

“They must leave here the day they no longer know Turkey,” Erdogan said.

Lately, the envoys had issued a highly unusual joint statement saying the continued detention of Parisian-born activist Osman Kavala “cast a shadow” over Turkey. Kavala has become a symbol of the sweeping crackdown Erdogan unleashed after surviving the coup attempt.

The United States, Germany, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden called for a just and speedy resolution to Kavala’s case.

Speaking to the AFP news agency from his jail cell last week, Kavala said he felt like a tool in Erdogan’s attempts to blame a foreign plot for domestic opposition to his nearly two-decade rule.

Kavala said on Friday he would no longer attend his trial as a fair hearing was impossible after recent comments by Erdogan.

The Council of Europe, the continent’s top human rights watchdog, issued a final warning to Turkey to comply with a 2019 European Court of Human Rights order to release Kavala pending trial.

If Turkey fails to do so by its next meeting scheduled to commence on November 30 and continue till December 02, the Strasbourg-based council could vote to launch its first disciplinary proceedings against Ankara.

European Parliament President David Sassoli tweeted: “The expulsion of 10 ambassadors is a sign of the authoritarian drift of the Turkish government. We will not be intimidated.

A source at the German Foreign Ministry also said the 10 countries were consulting with one another. German lawmakers called for a tough response.

“Erdogan’s unscrupulous actions against his critics are becoming increasingly uninhibited,” Bundestag vice president Claudia Roth told the dpa news agency.

She said Erdogan’s “authoritarian course must be confronted internationally” and demanded sanctions and a halt to weapons exports to Turkey.

“The possible expulsion of 10 ambassadors, including the representatives of Germany and many of Turkey’s NATO allies, would be unwise, undiplomatic and would weaken the cohesion of the alliance,” lawmaker and foreign policy expert Alexander Graf Lambsdorff tweeted. “Erdogan can have no interest in that.”

Norway said its embassy had not received any notification from Turkish authorities.

“Our ambassador has not done anything that warrants an expulsion,” said the ministry’s chief spokesperson, Trude Maaseide, adding that Turkey was well aware of Norway’s views.

“We will continue to call on Turkey to comply with democratic standards and the rule of law to which the country committed itself under the European Human Rights Convention,” Maaseide said.

Danish Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod said his ministry had not received any official notification, but was in contact with its friends and allies.

“We will continue to guard our common values and principles, as also expressed in the joint declaration,” he said in a statement.

Iranian trade with neighbors up 52%YoY

The value of Iran’s non-oil trade with its 15 neighbors rose to US$22.588 billion in the first six months of the current Iranian calendar year, posting 52% increase year on year (YoY). This was stated by the spokesman of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA).

The Islamic Republic traded over 47.222 million tons of commodities with the neighboring countries in the mentioned year, IRIB quoted Ruhollah Latifi.

The volume of the traded goods in the mentioned period also increased by 37% as compared to the figure for the previous year’s same period.

Iran traded a total of 79.104 million tons of non-oil products worth US$44.926 billion with its trade partners during this period.

Trade with neighboring countries in the first half of the year accounted for 60% and 50% of the country’s total non-oil trade during the said period, in terms of weight and value, respectively.

The country exported over 36.087 million tons of non-oil goods worth more than US$11.218 billion to the neighboring countries in the period under review, while imported more than 19.138 million tons of goods worth over US$11.369 billion.

Iraq was Iran’s top export destination, importing $3.840 billion worth of commodities from the Islamic Republic, while the lowest volume of exports was made to Saudi Arabia with only US$39,000, according to Latifi.

After Iraq, the main export destinations for Iranian products and goods were Turkey, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Afghanistan and Pakistan.

On the other hand, the highest volume of Iran's imports from neighboring countries was made from the UAE with US$7.305 billion, followed by Turkey, Russia, Iraq and Oman.

Increasing non-oil exports to the neighboring countries is one of the major plans that the Iranian government has been pursuing in recent years.

Iran shares land or water borders with 15 countries namely UAE, Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Russia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, and Saudi Arabia.

According to IRICA, Iran currently exports non-oil commodities to 40 European countries, 21 Asian countries, 28 African countries, and 12 American countries, while importing from 41 European countries, 31 Asian countries, 12 American countries, and 11 countries in Africa.

Egypt an emerging global logistics hub

The government of Egypt has introduced a fully automated customs process aimed at significantly improving processing time and reducing costs for companies exporting goods to Egypt. 

The new trade facilitation technology—the Advance Cargo Information (ACI) system—was successfully implemented on October 1 across all of Egypt’s ports, and is being applied to all goods imported into the country.

By using digital methods underpinned by block chain technology, the new customs system dispenses with paper documents, enabling goods to be checked and cleared before they reach Egyptian ports. The technology also strengthens risk management systems, identifying goods before they are shipped.

At the time of its launch, 38,700 exporters from around the world were registered to the new system, which has been broadly welcomed by Egypt’s trade partners. “This new trade facilitation technology will make it simpler, easier and cheaper for all companies exporting goods to Egypt,” said Jan Noether, CEO of the German-Arab Chamber of Commerce (AHK Egypt). “It shows that Egypt is not only open for business, but serious about maximizing its location at the crossroads of the world to become one of the world’s great trading economies.”

Independent evaluation shows that Egypt’s customs processing times have already improved by 55%.

Egypt is Africa’s second-largest importer; responsible for total imports in 2019 valued at $76.4 billion, and it is the world’s largest importer of wheat and asphalt. The biggest exporting countries to Egypt are China, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Germany and Turkey.

At the launch of ACI, in Cairo, H.E. Dr. Mohamed Maait, Egypt’s Minister of Finance, described the implementation of ACI as “a crucial step in our plans to transform Egypt’s trade infrastructure. This new technology will make it much easier for companies all over the world to trade with Egypt, helping to deliver the government’s plan to create the most advanced logistics hub in the region.”

“The implementation of the Advance Cargo Information system is a crucial step in our plans to transform Egypt’s trade infrastructure. This new technology will make it much easier for companies all over the world to trade with Egypt, helping to deliver the government’s plan to create the most advanced logistics hub in the region.”

 In April 2019, the Egyptian government launched the National Single Window for Foreign Trade Facilitation (Nafeza), a single digital trade portal for all import, export and transit operations that links all of Egypt’s ports. The transformation program has also included the establishment of high-tech logistics centers in Cairo, East and West Port Said, Port Tawfik, Ain Sokhna, Damietta, Dakhilah and Alexandria to ensure that port facilities are transiting goods efficiently.

An evaluation shows that Egypt’s customs processing times have already improved by 55% since the portal was launched—a significant step in realizing the objective of reducing customs clearance time to less than one day.

Nafeza is part of an ambitious economic program to drive the wholesale modernization of the Egyptian economy. This initiative includes a $4 billion overhaul of Egypt’s ports, involving 58 wide-ranging projects that include the construction of new berths, trading yards and wharves as well as the dredging of shipping lanes and port docks. Plans are also in progress to develop a series of dry ports that will connect Egypt’s seaports to inland locations.

The dry port connections are part of a major railway and road expansion program—comprising more than 2,000 projects—set to be completed by 2024. Flagship projects include a highway linking Egypt with nine other African countries to boost Egypt’s exports to the continent, and a high-speed railway between Egyptian ports on the Red Sea and the Mediterranean coast. In line with Egypt Vision 2030, launched in February 2016, Egypt plans to almost double trade in goods and services, from 37% of the economy to 65%.

In 2020, Egypt attracted the second-highest level of foreign direct investment in the Arab world and was the biggest recipient of FDI funds in Africa.

Egypt’s infrastructure upgrades are part of a broader package of economic reforms to improve the country’s business environment and attract investment. Despite the impact of the pandemic, particularly on the country’s vital tourism sector, the Egyptian economy was one of the few emerging markets to experience growth last year. Egypt’s exports in June were up nearly 50% from the same month last year, while its trade deficit fell by over a quarter, according to data from the country’s Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics. In 2020, Egypt attracted the second-highest levels of foreign direct investment in the Arab world, and was the biggest recipient of FDI funds in Africa.

Egypt is Africa’s top manufacturing hub, accounting for 22% of the continent’s value added in this sector, according to OECD, and the country’s reforms seek to boost the country’s manufacturing base. A key component of the economy, manufacturing is set to expand further as the country develops new sectors such as Covid vaccine and electric car production.

The OECD has also recognized, in a report published in July, that a growing number of firms are choosing Egypt as their production base for the African continent and the Middle East, and benefiting from the large number of free-trade agreements signed between Egypt and African, Arab, European and Latin American countries.

Countries reluctant to accept Afghan refugees

Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan has triggered tough measures from countries in the region and beyond to stem an expected refugee inflow. Governments from Islamabad to Ankara and Tehran have bolstered border restrictions in anticipation of hundreds of thousands of people fleeing Kabul.

Those actions and similar curbs signaled by Western countries have highlighted an emerging tension between claims of international sympathy for Afghan refugees and the reality on the ground. Governments are worried that refugees could start to pour out and exacerbate political and social problems created by previous influxes.

Caught in the middle of this conundrum are Afghans who have escaped to Iran, in the hope of bringing their family over the border and possibly further afield.

Turkey is "facing an increasingly intensifying Afghan migration wave coming via Iran," President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on the day the Taliban captured Kabul. The rapid seizure came two weeks before the complete withdrawal of US troops from the war-torn country they had been stationed in for nearly 20 years.

Turkey isn't the only nation in the neighborhood trying to avoid refugee inflows. Iran has closed its border with Afghanistan and returned refugees, according to a Tehran newspaper. Pakistan's army claims to have sealed all irregular crossings from Afghanistan, though domestic media have reported increased human trafficking across the border.

Unless Taliban decides to try to stop all Afghans from leaving, the end of the US involvement in Afghanistan is going to create more refugees from a country that already produced millions when it was occupied by the Soviet Union in the 1980s. Any new trickle or flood of refugees will include people who couldn't get on US or other evacuation flights from Kabul, people who fear for their lives, and others desperate because of economic hardships.

The UNHCR has predicted up to 500,000 Afghans could flee this year, leading him to call for borders to remain open and for more countries to share "this humanitarian responsibility" for helping refugees. Iran and Pakistan already host a combined 2.2 million registered Afghans. Iran needs help because of the "critical situation" it faces with the pandemic.

Pakistan, too, will likely end up more with refugees, despite rebuffing US requests to host more. Islamabad -- seen as close to the Taliban -- cites an inability to pay for the upkeep of more refugees on top of the millions.

According to a source in Pakistan's border authority, about 8,000 Afghans crossed into Pakistan on one day alone through Chaman crossing, where Afghans with a visa or a national identity card, or those previously registered with the Pakistani government as refugees, are allowed to cross.

Some countries in the region with interests in Afghanistan have offered limited, and short-term, help. The United Arab Emirates has agreed to temporarily host 5,000 evacuated nationals who will go to third countries, following a request from the US. The UAE, along with Qatar and Saudi Arabia, have called for peace and political stability in Afghanistan.

Another country that's been involved in rebuilding Afghanistan over the past two decades is India, which hosts more than 15,000 Afghan refugees from long ago. As of March 2021, a total of 41,315 refugees and asylum-seekers were registered with the UNHCR India, with Afghans making up the second-largest subgroup, at 37%, behind those from Myanmar, at 54%.

New Delhi has said it would help Afghanistan's minority Hindu and Sikh community members to come to India, and stand by a number of other Afghans "who have been our partners in the promotion of our mutual developmental, educational and people-to-people endeavors," the Ministry of External Affairs said in a statement.

There are concerns that the refugees' temporary stays could become quasi-permanent if other countries don't offer them a new home and they can't go back to Afghanistan.

While saying the European Union cannot abandon people in immediate danger in Afghanistan, Interior Ministers said in a statement last week that the 27-nations in the bloc "stand determined to act jointly to prevent the recurrence of uncontrolled large-scale illegal migration movements faced in the past, by preparing a coordinated and orderly response."

Following Turkey, Pakistan should also refuse influx of Afghan Refugees

The United States has asked Pakistan and Turkey to open doors for the entry of Afghan refugees. Interestingly, Turkey has already refused to be part of this plan. Now the Government of Pakistan has to express its consent to be part of this plan. The popular demand is that following Turkey Pakistan also should not allow influx of Afghan refugees.

The United States wants Pakistan to keep its borders with Afghanistan open for Afghan refugees. The super power taking a retreat from Afghanistan believes that two countries, Iran and Pakistan can play a pivotal role in the resettlement plan.

Since the United States does not have diplomatic relations with Iran, US policy makers look at Pakistan to help them in transferring of refugees to Turkey via Iran.

They are using a strange argument “If people go north or if they go via Iran to Turkey, they have an opportunity both to enter the country as well as to register with either the government or with UNHCR.”

The US State Department asked Turkey to allow Afghans to stay in the country for up to 14 months before they are resettled in the United States.

The Turkish government has refused to follow the US plan to use third countries to resettle Afghans, saying the move would cause a “great migration crisis” in the region.

Reportedly, Pakistan’s National Security Adviser Moeed Yusuf said at a briefing in Washington that arrangements should be made to keep displaced Afghans inside their country instead of pushing them into Pakistan. Adding, “Pakistan does not have the capacity to take more refugees.”

Moeed has also been fully supported by Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed saying, “We have decided not to open our border for refugees; the aid agencies can help the needy on the other side too.”

It is on record that since 1979, Pakistan has been hosting millions of Afghans and more than three million are permanently settled in the country.

Some critics say, “Influx of Afghan refugees into Pakistan has ushered ‘arms and drugs’ culture, religious extremism and sectarian killing. It may be true that most of the Afghans taking refuge in Pakistan are law abiding, but terrorist, under the disguise of refugees, have created safe sanctuaries and use residents of the areas as human shield.”

United States entrusts Kabul airport security to Turkey

According to Jake Sullivan, US National Security Adviser, President Joe Biden and President Tayyip Erdogan have agreed to assign Turkey a lead role in maintaining security of Kabul airport after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.

It is suspected that since Pakistan is not ready to provide any airbase to United States, a cover up is being created for the use of Kabul airport for the US planes/drones. This may offend those Afghans who enjoy cordial relationship with Islamabad and want the United States to end its occupation of Afghanistan at the earliest.

While the two leaders were prompt in agreeing to a new role for Turkey, they were not able to resolve the long-standing issue of Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 defence systems, Sullivan said, a bitter dispute that strained ties between the Nato allies. He added that dialogue on the issue would continue.

“The clear commitment by the leaders established that Turkey would play a lead role in securing Hamid Karzai International Airport and the two countries are now working to work out the modalities.

The United States takes seriously the concern over the Taliban militia potentially attacking the international missions in Afgha­nistan, he said.

It seems Turkey has accepted the role to ease its relationship with the United States. Analysts are of the view that many of the acts/policies of Turkey are contradictory, which often fail in attaining the ultimate objective.

While Tayyip Erdogan is very vocal against Israel, he has not been able to do what a tiny country like Maldives did, suspending diplomatic relationship with Israel. This is likely to become a big thorn in Turkey-Taliban relationship.

It is no secret that Taliban enjoy good relations with Saudi Arabia, therefore, a proxy war may break out in Kabul. Saudi-Turkish relations have severed after the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Embassy in Turkey.

Istanbul Canal: Commencement of a crazy project

On 6^th May 2021, I had posted a blog titled Istanbul Canal: Benefits and pitfalls reporting Turkey’s intention to start work this year on Istanbul Canal project, an artificial canal connecting the Black Sea to the Sea of Marmara. 

Today, I was astonished to read a Bloomberg report, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan saying the construction of a multi-billion dollar canal, an alternative to Istanbul’s Bosporus strait, will begin by end June.

Erdogan’s announcement came a decade after he first revealed his “crazy project” and at a time when his support has hit an all-time low. The 45-kilometer (28-mile) Canal Istanbul would cost around US$15 billion and link the Black Sea with the Sea of Marmara.

The government says it is meant to ease shipping traffic and the risk of accidents in the Bosporus, which bisects Turkey’s biggest city.

Erdogan is betting that the building of the canal and the rise of new cities along its route will create thousands of jobs and wealth that will dramatically boost the country’s economic growth and reverse the slide of his popularity ahead of the 2023 presidential elections. Discontent has grown over the Erdogan government’s handling of the economy and over allegations of corruption from a mafia boss, which he’s dismissed.

During the president’s 18-year rule, Turkey has poured tens of billions of dollars into giant infrastructure projects, including the new Istanbul airport, a new bridge over the Bosporus and massive city hospitals.

The planned waterway is projected to create a new city of half a million, with several bridges connecting the two sides. Shares of Turkey’s state-run property developer Emlak Konut and cement-maker Akcansa Cimento, a partnership between HeidelbergCement and Sabanci Holding, climbed as much as 6.4% and 7.6%, respectively on Monday.

“We will lay the foundations of the Canal Istanbul at the end of June,” Erdogan said at the opening ceremony of a TV signal tower on the anniversary of the capture of Istanbul by Ottoman Turks in 1453 on Saturday, a day after inaugurating a giant mosque in Istanbul’s central Taksim square. “We will build two cities on the right and left of the Canal Istanbul. With these two cities,” Istanbul’s beauty and strategic importance will increase, he said.

In order to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on the economy, his government is struggling to open up the economy and revive the tourism industry by ramping up vaccinations. The goal is to narrow the current-account deficit and alleviate sufferings of businesses that have complained about insufficient government support and families that are withering under soaring inflation.

Erdogan has dismissed concerns of his political rivals that the project would hit taxpayers, the environment and undercut a 20th-century agreement meant to ensure stability and security in the Black Sea. Erdogan has said Turkey won’t exit the 1936 Montreux Convention but said warships will be able to use the canal.

Istanbul’s Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who’s seen as a potential future challenger to Erdogan, is firmly opposed to the project, saying it would “annihilate” water resources for Istanbul’s 16 million residents, ruin the province’s nature beyond repair and make it unlivable. Turkish prosecutors on Friday demanded imprisonment of Imamoglu, whose victory in 2019 ended more than a quarter-century of control over Istanbul by Erdogan’s party and its predecessors, on charges of allegedly insulting the country’s election watchdog.

“The people of Istanbul elected Imamoglu on March 31 to prevent the destruction of the green, the city from being buried in cement, the people from being treated loutishly and finally block the formation of that freak system called the Canal Istanbul,” Meral Aksener, head of the opposition Iyi Party which backed Imamoglu’s candidacy, said at a competing ceremony marking the capture of Istanbul on Saturday.